I think the 2024 election will come down to a few things:
(as shorthand, I'm going to refer to anyone that's actually a toss-up voter as "non-MAGA". Obviously MAGA will vote for Trump no matter what and Biden will get the hardcore Democrats)
1. The economy. The economy is starting to worry Trump because he's talking about it a lot. He's recently admitted that Biden has been drilling a ton, has admitted the stock market is doing really well, and has admitted that gas prices are down. Of course, in typical Trump fashion, he's claiming that Biden is just drilling for the election and that drilling and gas prices are going to go back to low and high, respectively, once Biden has been re-elected. He also claims that he's responsible for the stock market being high since he's winning in the polls.
So what will non-MAGA think of any of that? Will they believe Trump's theories or trust how the economy "feels"? Will they give Biden credit for a strong 2024 economy, or will they still blame him too much for the post-Covid economy? Trump is obviously positioning any Biden success as Trump success, but will that work with people that might not love Trump?
Obviously, if the economy tanks (or even just doesn't keep getting better), Biden is going to have a hard time.
2. The Border. The other thing that Biden polls poorly at (at the moment). But Biden has been speaking about it a lot, and the new Republican conspiracy theory is that Biden wants the House to not pass the border deal so that he can claim it's the Republicans' fault. I don't know what non-MAGA is going to make of that. Will they simply go by statistics (meaning even if Republicans pass legislation, Biden gets credit?) or will they understand the issue deep enough to know the details?
3. The Trials. This is actually #1 in terms of things that will impact the election, I think, but I'm putting it here because I think it's a less reliable factor since we don't know if any of these trials will happen in time for it to matter. I think there's a 0.0% chance that the Florida case happens before the election (if at all, if Cannon has her way), and it's the same chance that Georgia gets started before the election. That leaves New York (which I think voters care less about) and the big one in DC. DC is the only one that I think has a chance to move the election (polls have said that if Trump is guilty of any of the crimes he's been indicted for, he could lose as much as 1/3 of his support, but I can't imagine they mean New York).
So in DC, Trump is arguing about immunity. And he's talking about immunity a ton. For whatever reason, the appeals court hasn't ruled yet. The longer they wait, the longer the appeal to the Supreme Court. And if the Supreme Court takes the case, the delay could be massive. Best case for people wanting the trial to be complete before the election (win or lose) is for the appeals court to rule against Trump and for the Supreme Court to deny taking the case. If that happens, we should probably have a trial during the summer or earlier.
If Trump is convicted, polling strongly suggests that Trump has no shot. He'd essentially lose half of his non-MAGA support. Would voters change their mind (making more or less of them not vote for him) by the time the election comes? Absolutely. But I just can't believe enough Americans are willing to vote for a convicted felon for Trump to win.
4. Trump and Biden gaffes. They're both older, and they're both prone to speaking like older men. Biden's is more about looking old and frail. Trump's is more about being confused about people or places or time periods or history. We'll have to see if Trump's recent gaffes affect him in polls, but I'm assuming that enough people aren't paying attention yet (and the media isn't really covering the gaffes).
I agree that perception still matters, but will Americans be more likely to vote for frail or crazy?
5. The wars. Ukraine, Gaza, and the Houthis will be a big part of the election. Trump can claim that he was strong enough that no one was willing to go to war while he was president. Biden can claim that Trump was buddies with dictators and despots who were too busy getting everything they wanted to go to war. I do think Putin is trying to cause as much trouble as he can because it helps Trump. Will Americans believe that? Will pro-Palestine democrats cause issues for Biden if Gaza isn't resolved by the election?
6. Biden's wins. Will non-MAGA give credit to Biden for all the things that Biden was able to do? The infrastructure bill is starting to show real progress that Americans are going to notice. Are they going to know that Biden provided that progress?
7. Social issues / "Woke" - I think any discussion of this hurts Biden. Luckily, it seems like DeSantis was going to run his entire campaign on this stuff, and he didn't do very well. So maybe Trump won't bring it up as much either.
I think most of these are positive for Biden. The only question is whether non-MAGA will consider them positives. Will they give him credit for a strong economy? Will they trust that he's working on the border? Will they abandon Trump based on the trials? Will they pay attention to the craziness Trump talks about? Will they blame Biden for wars abroad? Will they give Biden credit for what he accomplished? And have they moved beyond the "woke" stuff? I think they need to say "no" to most of these for Trump to win, but I don't know if that's horribly unlikely.