American Politics: Discuss and Debate (Page 35 of 37)

I think Trump is slowly getting where he needs to get.  He admitted at his Baby Table press conference that he'd leave the White House if the Electoral College voted him out - he said all the Trumpy things about how it'd be the wrong decision and it's a fraud and all that.  He also admitted this weekend that his Supreme Court plan may not ultimately work, saying "it's hard to get to the Supreme Court"

I don't really need Trump to concede.  Or for him to pay for his crimes.  I really just need him to leave the White House, and I need the GOP to clean up as much of his mess as they can.  I need McConnell or someone else to admit that the election was fair for anyone who will listen.  Of course, there will be those that don't.  There will be people who have their doubts or flat-out believe that the election was a sham.  I'm hoping the GOP does their best, once they've gotten everything they can out of Trump, to convince Trump voters that their voice was heard.  If a segment of the GOP doesn't want to believe the results and won't listen to their own leadership, then I don't think there's anything people could do to convince them.  Republicans were big winners this election so it's not like they can even claim the whole election was a scam.  Or even that the Democrats were very good at it.

And I think a lot of those people will move on too.  Just like the pissed off liberals who eventually just went back to life with Trump as president, most of the Trumpists will eventually forget how mad they are now.  OAN and Newsmax and Fox News will go after the Biden administration instead of harping on the election.  I'm sure the Republicans will try and impeach Biden for something weak.

But not hearing Trump's name in the news every day will be nice.  That's all I really need right now.

Very interesting.

I think the next four years will be really interesting for Trump.  I think he can essentially write his own plan.  He has the support inside the Republican party to do whatever he wants.  If he wants to run in 2024, he doesn't need all 74 million people that voted for him to support him - he just needs enough to win a primary.  And the Republicans in power seem to be kneeling to that idea.  That while he won't be in office, Trump will still be in charge of the party for the next four years.

But, and I've said this a bunch, does Trump want to run again in 2024 or does he just need to say that to do what's next?  If he said he was done, he doesn't really have any power.  If he says he's running in 2024, whether he is or not, he has enough power to have all the power.  And everything that comes with that.  But, and we've seen this in the last few weeks, he doesn't really seem particularly interested in doing the job.  He likes that he travels the world and gets to do what he wants.  And I think, once he's out of office, he'll realize that he gets all the "president" stuff without having to do the work.

And while everyone talks like it's a certainty, Trump will be 78 in 2024.  The same age Joe Biden is.  Biden has obviously slowed mentally since 2016 (not to the level everyone says but it is obvious).  Trump gets by because he's quick on his feet - if he slows, he's not Trump anymore.  Barry Allen without his speed is just a guy.  Trump who takes a second to come up with a zinger or who can't speak for an hour off the cuff is just a guy.

And that's if he's alive.  I don't want Trump to die, but he's coming across the average lifespan.  And he's not exactly in great shape.  If he's truly had a stroke or truly showing signs of dementia, all the money in the world may not save him.  Especially if he spends all his time traveling and speaking and all that.

The thing that gives me peace, at least for now, is that no one has really stepped up to take Trump's place.  None of his kids are capable of doing what he did.  I think Ivanka probably has the best chance to follow in her dad's footsteps, but she has zero of his charisma.  She'd be a different type of politician, and that means she's vulnerable to things that he wasn't vulnerable to.  She'd need to build up herself and her public image for a while - running for Congress or governor might work for her first.  I don't think any of the other Trumps could win a real election outside of areas where Trump was popular - they'd win on their dad's name - not theirs.

So if Trump were to die or before 2024, I think the Republicans would struggle - do they try to carry Trumpism without Trump?  Is there Trumpism without Trump?  If Trump decides not to run in 2024 because he can't or doesn't want to, he could pick his successor, but the successor still has to be the person.  I don't think Ivanka could do that.  Jared certainly couldn't.  Eric and Don Jr are laughable compared to Donald.

It'll be interesting.

Maybe.  That would surprise me a bit, but New York will throw everything at him.

Two questions that I can't seem to get answers to:

1. All but one of Trump's lawsuits have been knocked down, but if you listen to what his lawyers say, this is all part of the plan to get things to the Supreme Court.  I know the Supreme Court picks their own cases and it only takes four justices to decide to hear a case - which I'd think they'd easily get with six conservatives.  But is there any sort of deadline on that?  The electoral college votes in 10 days.  I'd think the longer this goes, the harder it would be for the Court to overturn.  I'm assuming the Supreme Court would either reject the cases entirely (as they've been knocked down pretty seriously by lower courts), but aren't we on some sort of clock?  Even if they wanted to, could the Supreme Court overrule the election in March?  How would that even work?

2. Trump is thinking about pardoning himself and his children.  Let's assume that the self-pardon works or that Trump does the "resign and Pence pardons him" trick.  What would that eliminate?  What federal charges are there looming over all their heads?  Would that eliminate all the impeachment stuff?  All the Mueller stuff?  Or is any of that state-level crime?  Is the Ivanka Trump lawsuit a federal or a state issue?  I guess I'm just wondering what that would clear the Trumps of and what would still be outstanding if he gave himself and everyone around him a blanket pardon.

I don't expect his base to be sick of it.  People stayed angry for four years of Trump.  I expect the GOP to stay angry for four years.  And while polls show that most don't buy Trump's bull, Trump can keep his base angry, either popping on OAN randomly, having a homebase there (or Newsmax), or on his own network.

But again, Trump's future depends on his own endurance, his own mental acuity, and his personal freedom.

He can win a primary with it.  He has a stronger base now than he did in 2015/2016 when he won the nomination.

And you don't have to take my word for it - look around.  The whole party is still deferring to him.  Either he's still the king or he's the kingmaker.  And either way, he still has the most influence.  Again, the person to look at is Ted Cruz.  Cruz wants to be president.  If Cruz thought that Trump was wounded, dying, or dead, he'd be pouncing.  He's not.  In fact, he's doubling down - pushing conspiracy theories and backing Trump's plays.

Why would he do that?  It doesn't necessarily help him in Texas, where Trump still won but not hugely.  Trump continued to lose major cities in Texas, and that would put Cruz in a dangerous spot next time he's up for reelection.  Cruz could easily separate himself as the next big thing by rallying Republicans around him.

But he's not.  And I think he's not because he's angling.  Maybe he's hoping to be the VP candidate in 2024 and logical successor in 2028?  Or maybe he's just trying to continue to show loyalty so Trump will anoint him as the next step in Trumpism.  I don't know.  But Cruz certainly is acting like Trump will be the nominee in 2024.

Maybe he's wrong.  But he's working against his own interests so he must be pretty convinced.

Huh.  And they picked Cardassians for their picture?

I think Trump would've blabbed it.  I just don't think he's capable of keeping a secret like that

**********

Word came out today that Trump is planning on taking Air Force One to Florida to run a competing rally on January 20th to announce his 2024 campaign.  Cool.  Fine.  Whatever.  Let's just move forward.

And Texas has done it:

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020 … ion-rules/

It will be interesting to see what other states now join in the suit.

Forget all of the other noise, this is the case to watch.  I really don’t think there’s enough time; the Trump team truly blundered this.  But if anything will change the outcome, this case is it.

The last time a state sued another, the Supreme Court took 15 months and still threw the case out.  They denied the PA case today, it's as over as it was a month ago.  This one will go adios as well, it has no merit.

Well the Attorney General of Texas is Ken Paxton.  Look up his very extensive list of crimes if you're interested.  But the theory I've seen is that he's just doing this to try and get attention from Trump so he can get a pardon.  Makes sense - although Paxton also faces state-level crimes and this wouldn't solve all his problems.

Well, then that's 18 states supporting an absurd and incoherent lawsuit, the basis of which is that voter fraud was somehow widespread in 2020 because there was no evidence of voter fraud and therefore no evidence that there wasn't voter fraud. As Transmodiar might say, "You can't prove a negative" -- which isn't true, but the underlying point still stands -- the absence of evidence is not evidence. Biden doesn't need to prove his votes weren't fraudulent he's not the one alleging fraud.

And, to my surprise, Trump's judges are not falling in line for their benefactor. Across the board, Trump-nominated judges are striking down his ridiculous lawsuits.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/ … ump-444023

Why is the Texas attorney general doing this? He's under investigation for corruption and he's hoping this hopeless lawsuit will win him a presidential pardon.

All 50 states (and DC) have certified their results.  These lawsuits are pointless.

The solicitor general of the state of Texas refused to sign the lawsuit.  Sen Ben Sasse suggested the AG of Texas, an accused crook, is simply doing this to be pardoned by Trump.  The Republicans have become post-democracy, not to mention this lawsuit is as anti-states' rights as you can get.

A bunch of House members are getting on board.  I assume to stay on Trump's good side?  I don't see any other reason for them to do it.

I almost feel bad for Trump, who clearly doesn't have the cognitive ability to understand any of this and certainly has a bunch of yes men telling him that there's a real chance of it working.  He probably thinks he has a real chance of staying, and no one has the balls to tell him the truth.

I almost feel bad.  I'm still hoping they have to taze him on the way out.

And Trump is handling it very well.  Probably shouldn't have nominated three Deep State judges.

Or his Deep State Attorney General.  It's pure comedy that everyone is wrong but he is right.

Do Americans really want to do this every time someone doesn't like losing an election... ?

There's been a lot of chatter about how one Senator and one Democrat can challenge the results and then it's voted on by individual states (which the republicans control more of).

From everything I've read, before it goes to that step, both the House and Senate have to approve it.  So even if Rand Paul and the congressman from Alabama object on January 6, several Democrats would need to agree with the objection for it to pass.  Even then, apparently McConnell has privately told Republican senators not to go along with it.

We'll see.  Twenty days.

Trump is completely full of crap.

A fair and sensible assessment.

Thank you.

Trump signed the package. *sigh* He tries to do one decent thing (for the wrong reasons) and has no backbone or follow through. That said, I have to ask pilight and Temporal Flux: was it worth it to get the package through to maintain unemployment benefits? Or are the benefits so scant that continuing them or severing them would have made no difference at all while pushing through useless financial support to seafaring vessels and academic research that has no bearing on the recession at all? I simply don't have the perspective to venture an opinion on this, so I would defer to yours for this one too.

I said earlier that if Trump won the election, I would write Part 7 of SLIDERS REBORN. Just in case I had to (although it seemed unlikely), I wrote an outline. The title is "Redemption." The story:

I'm not sure anything will come from that.  Nothing seems to stick to Trump, and he could get a pardon for anything federal.  I did see that Georgia might go after criminal charges of electoral tampering, but I'd be shocked if that went anywhere.

But I do wonder if the scandal makes the GOP opposed to the electoral vote work harder to convince Cruz, Hawley, and his cronies not go go down that road.  Probably not, but I just can't wait for Wednesday to be over and we can start the final countdown. 

I think after Covid and undoing some of the Trump madness, Biden should focus on election integrity.  We need to make sure this is as close to a constitutional nightmare as possible.  I don't think a simple majority in both chambers should be enough to overturn an election.  I do think we need to work on getting as much transparency as possible into the process so that if someone else tries this crap again, it can be shot down immediately instead of dragged out for months.

They can't "overturn" the election, there's nothing to change.  The Senate cannot touch the results once the states have certified them.

GEORGIA!

I don't want one party to control everything.  I'm moderate enough that a lot about conservatism appeals to me.  But Trump has to be eliminated.  He'll keep the evangelicals and the radical right until he's dead, but there aren't enough of those people to make a big enough difference.  Most of the GOP establishment has moved away from him already (I expect tons of republicans to vote to certify Biden today), and others will fall in line once they see that it doesn't benefit them anymore.

We have to remain vigilant.  We need to support anti-Trump republicans and defeat Trump republicans.  And we need to shore up the electoral process so that we can't get this close to chaos ever again.

But today will be a great day