American Politics: Discuss and Debate (Page 27 of 37)

What does it say that Trump has to have failed SO badly in managing the COVID-19 crisis for Biden to have any shot unseating him in November?

I know you're down on Biden, but Trump was a long shot to win no matter who his opponent was going to be.  We can argue all day about whether Biden is the worst candidate or a boring candidate, but he's *crushing* Trump.  Trump is going to have to work his ass off to get to 200 electoral votes at this point.  If this was Obama, Trump might struggle to get to 100 electoral votes.

I've said this so many times but the math is the math.  The US has had shifting demographics for a long time, and there just aren't enough white conservatives to justify the GOP's insane "only campaign for whites" agenda.  I live in Texas, which everyone would expect would be Trump country and I don't know one (1) person who would vote for him.  I don't even think I know someone who would lie about it and then vote for him secretly.  Polls in Texas are showing Biden up.  I don't think Biden wins Texas, but the fact that it's even in play shows how much trouble the Republicans are in.  Because if the Democrats have Texas, New York, and California, it's over.  Absolutely over.  And that's not only a real possibility - it's a near certainty.

And we can take a shit on polls all we want and point over and over again to 2016 as the main reason, but 2016 was such an aberration.  Things that are one in a million happen once every million times - it doesn't mean that the percentages were wrong if that one time happens first or fifth or whenever.  Yes, the polls were wrong, but they've never been that wrong before or since.

Trump was so bad his whole presidency that no matter who emerged from the Democratic field, he was going to lose.  That's why every single candidate (Bernie, Warren, Biden, Mayor Pete, Klobuchar, Yang, etc) was polling ahead of Trump.  The math was on their side.

Let's not conflate the polls; Biden isn't crushing Trump, TRUMP is crushing himself with his grandstanding and draconian actions. Biden is a complete non-entity who knows that if he just sits things out and doesn't make any major appearances or accept any debates, his vacuum leaves Trump flailing in the wind, damaging himself. If Covid wasn't around Biden would be in terrible shape; he's a bully and a hothead, just not as big of one as our Cheeto-in-Chief.

Agreed.

Letting your opponent implode is a strategy. Obama's campaigns were often about being steady and measured and letting John McCain and Mitt Romney self-destruct on their own.

I'd agree that historically, Biden has been a twit. How about that time he babbled an invitation to take a stand to a man in a wheelchair or described Barack Obama as "clean" as if to imply black people are generally dirty? But... something seems to have changed. For now.

His campaign is impressive. I'm sure it's less that Biden has always been how his campaign presents him. It's more likely that his doctor prescribed the right psychostimulants or his recent college grad speechwriters have found the right font or his speech therapist has given him some new techniques to master his stutter. But something has clicked in his working with Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren on his platform, in his statements warning Russia of a reckoning, in his declaring that the climate crisis is an opportunity to create jobs, in his warning his own wealthy donors that they won't like his tax policies, in his calling shareholder economy a farce.

Whoever handles his Twitter account has distilled his desired public image into a persona of warmth and understanding and I know it's just a PR campaign, but if he could live up to it, this could be something really special. Crisis can bring out the best and worst in us. The campaign presents Biden as someone who is remaking himself to meet the moment and I like it. But I recognize that it is an ideal, not a reality.

I will resume my former frustration at Joe Biden being the Democrat standard bearer after the election. You won't catch me sharing anecdotes of hearsay about Biden's supposed generosity after the election or screaming "fake news" at any of his critics.

Five Thirty Eight's explanation for why Hillary lost in 2016 despite all the polling: the race tightened shortly before the election. Hillary was only ahead of Trump by 3.3 points -- but polls are generally off by 2 - 4 points that are conceivably in either direction, meaning Trump could have been (and was) slightly ahead. Five Thirty Eight also points out that Biden has a much bigger lead on Trump than Clinton ever had, 9 - 15 points ahead, which would require a much bigger polling error than even in 2016. Right now, it looks good. But right now is not November.

**

Five Thirty Eight says that there is little evidence for secret Trump voters being widespread. They may exist to a degree, but not significantly. If there were, the polls would have underestimated Trump's support in deep blue areas. This wasn't the case; blue state polls overestimated Trump's voters. Trump's supporters turned out to have been most underestimated in usually Republican states. There was only a 1- 2 per cent gap, not enough to significantly affect results. Trump's upset was due to Hillary's lead eroding to being within the margin of error. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q68gy2ZvuPM

I would welcome this being debunked if it's wrong.

I'll put that clip up against any Sleepy Joe video the MAGAs want to throw at him.  I don't think Trump has dementia, but I don't have any idea why he was given that test.  Maybe he asked for it and his doctors gave it to him for a laugh.  If it wasn't a real test, we know that Trump wasted at least (per him) 30 minutes to an hour messing around with a meaningless test.  If it was real, he's either showing symptoms of dementia, Alzheimers or Parkinsons.

If Biden wins, it'll be up to a lot of people to hold him to any progressive ideals he's discussed.  Even if they're not in his cabinet or administration, he's going to need to listen to all the progressives that have helped him get elected.  A man of his age in whatever health he's in is going to need a lot of help, and I'd like to see his administration full of young and diverse people looking to make positive change and undo any harm Trump has done.  We may not expect Biden to get a lot of change done himself, but people he hires can absolutely help.

Change doesn't only have to come from Congress.  Change can simply come about from rejoining the Paris Accords.  Helping shift the country towards cleaner energy.  Working with our allies on pandemic prevention and response.  Stuff like that is easily done from the executive branch.  Trump has done next to nothing legislation-wise, but we've still felt the impact of his presidency.

Trump has no concept of government, which is why every cue he takes is from the playbook of Pinochet, Castro, Putin, etc.  And yes, Biden would almost certainly reverse most all of Trump's executive orders quite quickly.

I don't think he supports that, but it's not up to him anyway. 

Much of what happens in 2021 IMO will depend on what the GOP refuses to include in the CV stimulus they're currently arguing among themselves about.  The Democratic House bill is $3 trillion but provides funding to just about everything. The GOP draft plan does not.  You're likely to see massive layoffs from state workers, in addition to all the people who've lost jobs in the private sector already, due to completely dead industries.  Those people will be legit homeless by then, especially since the GOP plan does nothing to stop evictions.

I've been reading The Bulwark, a site of centrist-conservative columnists (as opposed to Trumpists). They've written two articles on Trump's chances that I've found soothing -- https://thebulwark.com/the-2020-cake-is-almost-baked/ and https://thebulwark.com/newsletter-issue … ds-really/

Their columns point out: most polls have a 2 - 4 per cent margin of error. Trump's 2016 surprise victory was won with a slight edge over Clinton -- about 3.3 per cent -- which was within the range of polling error.

The Bulwark advises that people like me stop being haunted by 2016 and simply look at the objective numbers which are that Trump is grossly unpopular, Biden is 15 points ahead and was six points ahead before the pandemic, Trump has been unable to offer a coherent argument for a second term -- and also, November 3 isn't very far away.

Could there be an October surprise? No. There couldn't. At this point, Donald Trump has been oversaturating the media with his presence for 40 years. At this point, Joe Biden has been a politician for 40 years. We're not going to learn anything about them between now and November 3 that is going to change anybody's mind about them -- so the terror of a 2016 upset is residual trauma with no basis in actual reality.

That sounds good to me, so I'll move on to my next anxiety -- how will Trump exploit the 1 - 2 weeks where we won't actually know who won the election? How will Trump try to use his willingness to throw federal agents into cities to harass and tear gas civilians and, at times, city mayors? Politico says that election day and the weeks to follow could be a disaster for voting, voters and counting votes: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/ … orm-372778

Well, I've said before -- I almost hope Trump will receive a crushing defeat in November and then refuse to leave office, refuse to vacate the White House and refuse to accept the results. I hope January 20 comes and then Trump calls for the US Army to surround the White House to prevent Biden's entry only for them to explain that they're not incurring treason charges for an ex-president and hang up on him. That he demands the Secret Service circle the Oval Office only for them to leave too except for the small detail that remains for a former president. That he forces the officer with the nuclear codes to stay only to realize all the codes have now expired. That he calls for his followers (incels, men's rights activists, Informant, Independent American Party lunatics) to protect him only to find they're disinclined to stand between Trump and the National Guard descending upon the White House.

I almost hope that Trump be yanked out from behind the Resolute Desk by guardsmen and marched out of the building and past Nancy Pelosi who doesn't even glance in his direction. https://slate.com/news-and-politics/202 … leave.html

But I don't really hope that because I really think America would do better with a peaceful transfer of power.

I agree with this.

But to be fair, I think we also inject Trump into everything.  I follow a very select few of what I consider to be reasonable people who are truly conservative/Republicans that are wary of (but not fully against or fully supportive) Trump.  I do this because I feel like I need to at least understand where these people are coming from.  In the age of "block everyone who disagrees with you", I try to at least be educated so I don't start believing that everyone agrees with me.  I think that's how radicalization happens.

And these people get frustrated because people make everything about Trump.  Does he suck?  Yes.  Is he doing a terrible job?  Yes.  But I think we too often drag him into situations that he doesn't belong.  For example, there was a widely circulated video of a great lightning strike behind the Statue of Liberty.  That quickly devolved into Trump.  Trump didn't say anything about it (or maybe he did, I don't follow him) and the event itself had nothing to do with Trump.  And the conservatives I follow were exhausted by the idea that a cool weather shot ended up getting political.  I know there's symbolism there, but I think we need to be enjoying moments that Trump isn't affecting and not making *more* things about him.

The sad thing for us is that I think Trump is actually trying.  Covid is going terrible for him, and unlike BLM, there's no political reason for him to handle it the way he is.  I just think he's in over his head and has no idea what he's doing, and he's surrounded himself with sycophants that don't know what they're doing.  So it's just this circular disaster that he can't pull his way out of.

Biden, for his faults, at least has an inkling of what he's doing.  But more importantly, he can surround himself with people who know what they're doing.  And he's capable of replacing people who don't.

I think he's trying.  I just don't think he knows what he's doing.  All the people in his circle don't know what they're doing.  His son-in-law is in charge of everything, and he has no qualifications.

If he didn't care, he wouldn't have worn a mask.  He wouldn't have gone through with the shutdown.  He wouldn't have done anything.  But he's done enough to show that he's trying but hasn't done nearly enough because he's confused.

More reason to think he'll find somewhere to take asylum, and that's where he'll be election night.

Trump has most certainly NOT been trying.  He made meaningless gestures like enacting the DPA on auto makers to make ventilator parts, but they were already in the process of doing so.  He tried to have everyone take hydroxychloroquine, which continues to be shot down by study after study.  He has spent billions on his vaccine Warp Speed, which won't help anyone for at least a year.  Yes, he signed the stimulus bills, okay, big deal.  Did you expect him to veto???

He insisted on reopening when the data screamed NO.  He has until last week refused to suggest people to wear masks.  He became bored of the pandemic.  He's lazy, he didn't want to hear the bad news anymore, and as Biden snipes, he "quit."  There are people who KNOW how to deal with an epidemic, but he fired or ignored them all.

Now, most countries have somewhat failed on this virus, that's obvious.  The few that continue to "succeed" are mostly in Asia, or are islands.  They have no travel going in or out, and their economies are largely stymied.  They live in a state of constant vigilance.  It might be working for the time being but it's sure as heck no fun.  Trump's administration gambled this virus would, as he said, vanish during the summer.  They figured an economy that was back up running even at 2/3 or 3/4 steam would seal his re-election.  He does not care about the casualties from this pandemic, none in the least.

As I’ve mentioned previously, my mom watches these things and then shows them to me.  She doesn’t have a lot in life since my dad died, so I humor her; and we talk about them giving my perspective on what it means which is usually different from her.

The latest video making the rounds is linked below.  I will preface this by saying that I do not believe this man is a prophet.  I think he’s fairly well read and informed, and his dreams are his subconscious unpacking the information he’s collected into his personal logical conclusions.

https://444prophecynews.com/brace-yours … overstone/

Starting with the September dream, I think the school thing is obvious to anyone.  Schools won’t re-open or either they’ll re-open in August only to close after a few weeks due to a massive spike in virus numbers.

The part about the banks is being misinterpreted, I believe.  It could be massive inflation, but I think it’s more likely that the vision signifies implementation of negative interest rates (something Trump has been itching to do for awhile).  Negative interest rates, as their name implies, would force the banks to give out interest (bonus money) to people who take loans; and in turn, stimulate the economy by encouraging people to take out debt.  That “new” money then gets injected into the economy keeping afloat businesses, rental properties, etc.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/i … s-work.asp

But the dark side to this is that it would cause you to lose money if you have it in a savings account in a bank.  For instance, let’s say you have a million dollars in the bank, and you’ve been making ten thousand a year in interest.  With negative rates, you could now be *losing* ten thousand a year if you left it in the bank.

So what’s the man’s dream trying to say?  The roofs being ripped off banks and money flying out.  An action of force causing things to happen the bank wouldn’t want.  September could see a run on the banks as happened at the start of the Great Depression - get your money out before you have to start paying the bank to keep it there.

When this happened in the Great Depression, banks collapsed.  Banks never carry enough money to make good on everybody’s claim if everybody made their claim at the same time; so people couldn’t get their money if they were slow to act.  Their money was just gone.  Remember the bank in “It’s a Wonderful Life”?  That’s what happens except we probably now don’t have that nice, understanding community that George had then.

The November dream is also tricky.  Many are interpreting it to mean that Trump will lose, but I think it means Trump will win or claim to win.  These past few months, we’ve already seen what can happen if passionate flames are stoked, but a Trump victory would turn the dial up to eleven.  This really isn’t about Republicans and Democrats, though - it’s about both manipulating circumstances to get what they want.

The U.N. appearing in the dream?  What could they possibly show up for?  Claims of election interference with both halves of a government saying the other is illegitimate.  Couple this with massive unrest, and the request for help by one half of the US government could invite the U.N. and other countries to intervene.  The world gets to decide which side they think is legitimate and throw in their support.  It’s not an invasion - it’s aid.   Or at least it can be sold that way.

I don’t think the man who had these dreams is a prophet; but I can see how things could easily go down a dark, sideways path.  And to those who say impossible - how much of the past few months did you really think would ever happen?  Anything’s possible. Brace yourself.

Congresswoman Debbie Dingell says that the polls are wrong. "I don’t believe that Biden is 16 points up in Michigan; that’s a bullshit poll," says Dingell, "and it’s the same people who said Hillary had it in the bag. I worry about polling suppressing votes. I don’t want anybody to think their vote doesn’t matter. I’m seeing lots of Trump signs start to pop up. There are some very complicated issues that Trump is playing to divide this country. He is energizing his base, and we have to energize ours."

NYMag, however, argues that Dingell is voicing trauma from 2016 and not reviewing the numbers objectively, noting that the 2016 polls merely reflected how they cannot predict an outcome if the two candidates are very close with the distance between them falling into normal polling margins of error (which Clinton and Trump were). The polls weren't that wrong, but the conclusions from the polls should have been that it would be a close election, not that Hillary was certain to win because Trump is ridiculous. In addition, Biden's lead is so much larger that he wins even if the polls are wrong; voters in 2016 who disliked both candidates went or Trump or third-party. In 2020, voters who dislike both candidates are, like me, tolerating Biden. https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/07 … -2016.html

Vox, however however, observes that polling will not be able to evaluate voter turnout under pandemic conditions. https://www.vox.com/2020/7/27/21324440/ … nnsylvania

Clearly, since they've both already had their conventions and announced their candidates; Dr. Jo Jorgensen for the Libertarians and Howie Hawkins for the Greens.

The undecideds aren't choosing between Trump & Biden.  It's Biden or smaller party.  Or Biden or don't bother.

I agree with you, though you I actually explained that in my post!  Most undecided's just don't bother to vote at all.  It's true, some don't really want either guy, but there's a massive number who don't want Trump but they want to have another option.  Biden's campaign from day one was to be that "other guy."

Those people simply won't vote at all.

In the press conference he said he liked her voice, but knew nothing about her.  Aka the Col. Klink defense!

Informant is a men's rights activist. To be accurate, he insisted that he was not a men's rights activist, but he encouraged viewership of THE RED PILL, a men's rights activist documentary about how women exploit their victimhood to take advantage of men and the documentary and supported by prominent men's rights activists like Paul Elam (who writes long essays about how women who wear revealing clothing deserve to be raped).

As much as I'd like to laugh at this and move on, it has become very clear that the men's rights activist movement and incel culture (involuntary celibates who have the same views as men's rights activists) have propelled its members towards hate crimes and murders. Two years ago, a lunatic incel named Alek Minassian rented a van and started running over pedestrians. He did it in my neighbourhood a few blocks from my home.

He murdered 10 people and injured 16 -- because apparently, he felt that the best response to not getting any dates was to attack innocents with a vehicle and get thrown in jail. He was angry because women in the world and who passed through his life were not sufficiently servile and submissive. In February, a teenaged incel and men's rights activist in my city stabbed a woman in a massage parlour for refusing to have sex with him. In May, incel and men's rights activist Armando Hernandez shot up opened fire at mall shoppers in Glendale, Arizona  and streamed it on Snapchat, angry that women wouldn't date him.

Most recently, in New Jersey, we have Roy Den Hollander, another angry, self-identified men's right activist who broke into the home of federal judge Esther Salas and shot and murdered Daniel Anderl, Salas' 20 year old son. Hollander joined the movement after his marriage to a Russian mail order bride ended in divorce. He wrote angry, semi-autobiographical novellas expressing hatred towards women who were not sufficiently subservient to him. He filed numerous lawsuits against nightclubs for ladies nights and against Columbia University for having a women's studies program. He wrote angry editorials on men's rights websites calling for men to take up arms against women. He was angry with Salas' work on one of his frivolous lawsuits and charged into her home with a gun, murdered her son and then shot himself.

My country is declaring that assaults and murders from men motivated by hatred of women will be charged and tried as acts of terrorism. The International Centre for Counter-Terrorism has identified male supremacist terrorism as a rising threat.

Now, is my old sparring partner likely to pick up a rifle and start shooting at random people because he subscribes to men's rights activist beliefs? No idea, certainly hope not -- but I want it on the record that I recognize that we had in our midst someone who supports and spreads the dogma of what is now recognized as a terrorist movement. The time to be contemptuously amused by men's rights activists is over.

It can no longer be dismissed, ignored, forgotten, set aside or go unremarked upon. It must be identified, called out, confronted and condemned. Practitioners of these violent beliefs must be noted, reported and prevented from harming others and charged if they do to make it clear that civilization will not tolerate their monstrosity.

These aren't just aggrieved men with poor social skills. These men subscribe to a belief system that inspires random and savage murder because they are being denied the ability to treat women as possessions to be taken at will. And one of them murdered people on my doorstep because women recognized his toxic personality and wisely steered clear of him.

Calendar marked. Let's keep watch.

**

William Barr appeared before Congress and his obvious dedication to acting as Trump's personal fixer while claiming he serves the country when he only serves his client is outrageous.

Biden has infuriated me since I was old enough to read a newspaper, but in this recent cycle, he keeps saying what I want to hear. "The attorney general is not the president's lawyer," Biden declared. "The attorney general is the people's lawyer." Asked whether he'd pardon Trump for any crimes committed in office, Biden replied, "It's hands off completely."

**

It is foolish to have too much faith in a politician. Whether Biden makes true change or will remain a centrist isn't even really up to him; it depends on whether or not Democrats can gain a Senate majority and then eliminate the filibuster. But I read Biden's climate change plan, listened to his speech on how America can "Build Back Better" and -- it brought tears to my eyes to hear this 78 year old man declare that America can protect the planet and prosper economically and that the path to creating eco-renewing infrastructure, zero-pollution energy, ecologically sound homes and clean energy by 2035 will bring Americans good wages with a solid standard of living -- I mean, I know it's not his plan.

I know that it's the work of many, many economists and ecologists and activists. But it is a good plan because it speaks to both the need to save our world and the need to earn a living; "Build Back Better" is inspiring because it declares that both needs can be treated as one and the same; that we can save ourselves and get a satisfactory paycheque from living up to our responsibilities. It inspires me. Presenting environmental efforts as both a winning both as an ecological and an economical proposition -- yes. This is America. This is what America is supposed to be. I don't even live in America and I'm proud that this country would produce this plan.

But Biden has to win first. And he has to win huge and get the Senate on his side. I'm worried that Barr will use his federal mercenaries to interfere with the election. I'm almost certain he will.

White House staffers have anonymously revealed that there has been no administrative preparation to try to change the date of the election. Republican House and Senate members have either uniformly rejected the idea that Congress will attempt to change the date of the election or not been quoted in any news outlets if they do support it.

It wouldn't work to keep Trump in office anyway. Even if the election were delayed, Trump's final day of his first term would be unchanged as set by the Constitution. I can't say what's going on in that wheezing engine that's Trump's brain, but even his supposed allies are against him on this one, and without their support, it's nothing more than the whining self-pity of a man who should start thinking about where he wants to move his stuff by January 20.

That said, it's pretty funny as Biden declared that Trump was going to try to delay the election and contrive an excuse to do so and various Trump staffers called Biden crazy and delusional for saying Trump would do what he just did. But it doesn't matter. As an unnamed Biden campaign administrator said:

Today, the White House condemned Hong Kong delaying their elections saying it "undermines the democratic processes and freedoms"

Out of the blue, Trump approved $765 million dollar loan to Kodak so they could start making ingredients for pharmaceuticals that are presently made cheaply overseas.  Stock price of course doubled, then tripled, making certain people millions.  Then it came out today that one of the drugs they will focus on....Hydroxychloroquine.  Jesus H. Christ, the corruption simply never ends.

https://www.latimes.com/business/story/ … ngredients