1,401

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

The lawsuits and Congressional actions are still on the table, as none of them are taking DeJoy's word for it. 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/18/politics … index.html

Further, the bipartisan Senate panel finally released the Russia investigation report, which found that Donald Trump's underling Roger Stone DID conspire with Julian Assange/Wikileaks to release the stolen (by Russia) John Podesta emails the night of the release of the Access Hollywood tape.  Trump lied about having nothing to do with this.

It also concluded that Paul Manafort was a counterintelligence threat who was working with a Russian handler of sorts.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

I'm not really sure where we stand on USPS right now. Postmaster DeJoy insists all service slowdowns were unintentional and temporary and that he supports mail-in voting and plans to use it himself -- but he's also refusing to reconnect the decommissioned sorting machines. Pelosi has declared that his capitulation is a lie and postal workers on the ground level have reported that despite DeJoy's public statements, he hasn't rolled back his changes or reinstated overtime.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/pol … 608724002/

USPS has assembled a bipartisan elections committee to oversee mail-in voting. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-release … 16553.html

Democrats have demanded that this same committee provide weekly reports on DeJoy and USPS.
https://www.democrats.senate.gov/newsro … ccountable

USPS have launched a website to guide people in how to mail their ballots. https://about.usps.com/what/government- … tion-mail/

Democrats and the Biden campaign continue to mount legal challenges against Trump's efforts to curtail mail-in voting. https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/2 … lan-399671

1,403

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

DeJoy is not going to budge.  Some union workers are reinstalling sorting machines anyway, while others cannot because they've found critical parts damaged or missing!

What were thoughts on the DNC?  I felt they did a good job highlighting real people and having them speak rather than just the pols we don't want to hear from.  Additionally, Biden and Harris presented strong, focused speeches that blew a cannon ball through the Trump claim that Joe is an invalid in adult diapers.

1,404 (edited by ireactions 2020-08-25 14:47:02)

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

DeJoy is going to do everything short of blowing up post offices to try to suppress votes, but he's been so overt and obvious that people can prepare in advance and work past him by voting early by mail or in person or by submitting their votes to ballot boxes. One wonders why he wasn't more subtle. Instead, he made a spectacle of it and that sounded the alarm.

The DNC was fine. Generally, I don't really think you get anything revolutionary or meaningful out of conventions that wouldn't come from the campaign, but the speeches were comforting and laid out the Democrats' position as servants and problem solvers offering empathy. Barack and Michelle Obama laid out a dark future for the country unless people exercise their power and vote and prepare for all the difficulties that are coming.

The major area where Biden solidified his public persona after his primary victory was made on a platform of vagueness -- Biden is a president who will guide the nation in their grief as opposed to the current president who is devoid of compassion or empathy. That's an emotional appeal rather than a policy position, of course.

I got the sense that Biden could be a serious security risk, however, in that he keeps giving his personal phone number out to strangers including an elevator operator and a boy with a stutter, both of whom spoke digitally at the convention. The latter, however, was a clever way of Biden doing what I asked him to do in a letter -- to tell the public that his supposed 'cognitive decline' when he says "Senate" instead of "President" and can't seem to speak the name of his former president are his struggle with his stutter.

I'm not going to bother watching the Republican convention. It's just going to be lies about how Trump did a great job fighting COVID-19 and claiming that Biden is a socialist. (I wish Biden were a socialist.)

1,405

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

A platform of vagueness should be sufficient considering the Republicans have no platform at all:

https://prod-cdn-static.gop.com/media/d … 1598219603

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Well, since winning the nomination, Biden (and Sanders and Warren) have assembled a platform. The platform is to create industry that addresses the climate crisis with the belief that Americans can earn a good living by entering newly created professions that will produce zero-waste energy and ecologically sound transportation, manufacturing, infrastructure and technology -- and also exercise the Defense Production Act of 1950 to produce COVID-19 medications, vaccines, tests and protective equipment. Medicare for all senior citizens, student debt forgiveness, increased tuition grants, police reform (but not defunding), a public option to Obamacare (but not Medicare for All), a return to all abandoned climate change accords.

The Democrats have effectively done what Slider_Quinn21 advised. They have presented themselves as problem solvers and crisis management professionals. They are here to help and serve. They have a plan (from Elizabeth Warren) for the pandemic. They have a plan (from Elizabeth Warren) for the climate crisis. They have a plan (stenciled from Bernie Sanders) for student debt and the economy. More importantly (and frustratingly), they have declared that they are a party of triangulators and centrists who will welcome Republicans and Democrats alike.

Vox had a neat article about how Joe Biden's platform is that he likes you; that Biden believes a president's job is to like every American even if only some of them support him. https://www.vox.com/2020/8/21/21387131/ … nce-speech

Joe Biden is apparently so likable that even neo-Nazi Richard Spencer endorsed him and declared Make America Great Again a failed movement -- to the horror of the Biden campaign which hurriedly repudiated neo-Nazi Richard Spencer. But you know it's significant when neo-Nazi Richard Spencer favours Biden and declare that he'll be voting for Democrats across the board. It isn't because neo-Nazi Richard Spencer found a soul, of course. It's because COVID-19 infects neo-Nazis just as much as people of colour and Jews and neo-Nazi Richard Spencer isn't suicidal. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics … r-BB18ktto

1,407

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Like the Kayne West campagin, I'm sure the skinhead Spencer endorsement was another offshoot of the Trump "win at all costs" campaign.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

I watched both Obamas speeches, Kamala's speech, and Biden's speech.  Even Hillary's speech.

I thought they were all good.  I hadn't heard a full Kamala speech before, but I thought she gave a really nice, really tough, really humanizing speech.  I think Barack's speech was the best, and I respected how much Hillary teased herself in her speech. 

The thing that was the biggest deal to me was Biden's speech.  Not the content - we knew that.  But the speech himself.  He spoke for 24 minutes uninterrupted with very few verbal mistakes (well within the confines of a normal speaker) and the right tone throughout.  The talking points on Fox News were "he's reading off a teleprompter, how hard is that?" but that's not even the point.  My grandfather had the sort of cognitive decline they accuse him of, and there's no way he could speak continually for 24 straight minutes.  He'd momentarily forget where he was or what he was doing, and it would be noticeable.  The fact that he spoke that well tells me he's almost certainly fine as far as dementia goes.  In decline?  Maybe.  But certainly not in any danger right now.

I think it's funny because the Republicans have essentially set the bar so low for Joe that if he doesn't drool, Biden wins the night.  And various videos combated the "how hard is it to speak on a teleprompter" with tons of videos of Trump messing up while reading a teleprompter.

******

I'm going to veer off for just a moment into Informant territory.  How weird is it that there was an officer-involved shooting in a swing state the week of the Republican National Convention?  Seems like just about perfect timing for Trump.  I don't think Trump's team is capable of keeping that a secret, but it certainly helps the GOP at the perfect time in just about the perfect place.  Hmm.

1,409

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Slider_Quinn21 wrote:

I'm going to veer off for just a moment into Informant territory.  How weird is it that there was an officer-involved shooting in a swing state the week of the Republican National Convention?  Seems like just about perfect timing for Trump.  I don't think Trump's team is capable of keeping that a secret, but it certainly helps the GOP at the perfect time in just about the perfect place.  Hmm.

It's random, but the violence from the legit radical left is nationwide right now.  They're just invading city after city and burning shit down.  It all works in Trump's favor though because he and the right-wing will harp on it for months.  Portland is out of control.  You have supposedly BLM protestors demanding people's homes, restaurants, and mobbing people who have nothing to do with any of this.  Yes it's isolated and of course blown out of proportion by social media, but it all works to Trump's "law and order" (for anyone but his family) narrative.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Yeah.  I understand that Trump's going to do whatever he's going to do, but I think it's crucial not to play directly into his hands.  I think whether or not you believe in the true concept of defunding the police, that the movement is harmful to Joe Biden.  I think regardless of whether or not the protests should happen, I think the ensuing violence (caused by whoever it's caused by) is harmful to Joe Biden.  And whether you want the police defunded or you want massive social change or you want the virus to slow, the best course of action will always start with electing Joe Biden.  No matter what your Step 2 is, Step 1 is getting Trump out of office.

BLM is inspiring, but at some point, it needs accountable leadership.  Every single BLM event needs to be overwhelmingly geared toward voting and voter registration.  Protests in October should be guiding people to early voting locations and ballot boxes.  Because no matter what you want or what you're fighting for, it's all for not if Trump gets re-elected.  Getting Black Lives Matter written on the NBA court is huge and important.  But like Chris Paul did the other day, every interview needs to veer toward getting people registered to vote and out to vote.  Because all the progress is lost if Trump wins.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

So they state a rationale for it, but the Fed is about to let inflation happen on purpose.  In my mind, higher prices don’t equate better times for regular people, but what do I know.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/20 … 639747002/

Remember, remember the fear of September.

1,412

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

It's already inflated to hell.  Food prices are astronomical.  Our electric bill is through the room.  USPS package rates have hit the roof.  Property taxes going up, up up, all thanks to COVID-19.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

It's deranged that the Republican National Convention was effectively a superspreader event on the White House lawn with few masks and zero social distancing. Trump is so desperate for the adulation of crowds that he's prepared to kill the people who would vote for him. It's literally diseased.

Mary Trump, his niece, remarked that Uncle Donald talks as though Joe Biden is already president and Trump is trying to unseat him, an interesting bit of projection on Trump's part.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Biden didn't get more than a 1 - 2 point bounce in the polls after his convention. Trump got a bounce in the polls after his convention. Biden's ten point lead now looks like a mere six point lead with Trump catching up.

Pollster Nate Cohn (New York Times) notes that a six point lead is not a good place to be for either party as it's dangerously close to polling error.

Nate Cohn wrote:

Leaving aside the context of a 'bounce' for a second: Biden+6 is a tough number for analysts. Biden's still the fav, but it's getting into the zone where it doesn't take *that* much of a polling error with *that* much of an Electoral College edge for Trump to get a close race.

In the context of a bounce, Biden+6 is not a great number for Trump. After all, bounces are usually... bounces. Looking back, incumbent presidents would usually be expected to fare worse than their standing post-convention. Minus-6 it's not exactly what you want your upside to be.

And Nate Silver (Five Thirty Eight) thinks it's a small rise for Trump at the same time as a small diminishment for Biden after his small post-convention increase.

Nate Silver wrote:

One other technical aside: when measuring a bounce from post-RNC polls, it matters whether you're comparing against polls that were conducted before the conventions or rather in between the conventions, which may have captured Biden's bounce.

Morning Consult, for instance, generally had the race at about Biden +8 before the conventions. Then that gets up to +10 after the DNC. Now it's +6. So does that reflect a 4-point bounce for Trump? I'd say no; it's more like a 2-point bounce + a small Biden bounce wearing off. Trump might get a bounce because for four days, voters were living in a fantasy world where COVID-19 was behind us, etc. But now we're going to snap back to reality and whatever bounce he gets could snap back, too.

Last month in the right-wing website, The Bulwark, a columnist remarked that all political races with candidates well-known to the public have "a natural equilibrium" that is highly predictable and that Biden's place in the polls before the pandemic hit was being ahead of Trump by six points which is where the polls have put him again. https://thebulwark.com/newsletter-issue … ds-really/

Cohn said we won't have a clear picture from polling until the the middle of September.

1,415

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

And these people are paid to cite the obvious?

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

I realize that it is obvious to you, Grizzlor. But it's not obvious to me. I am not a pollster. I am just very agitated about this race and I appreciate Cohn and Silver explaining the numbers because I wouldn't otherwise understand them. I'm not Temporal Flux; I'm not good at EVERYTHING.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Nate Silver wrote the other day that we're starting to see more polls with a post-convention bounce for Biden.  He said that the online polls don't usually show such bounces and that there weren't many phone polls to show it.

The idea that the polls are moving at all is crazy to me.  I don't understand it.  What could anyone have said at either convention that would change anyone's mind at all?  I listened to Biden's speech and it didn't tell me anything new or anything important.  The only question mark I can see in the population is:

- Traditional conservatives who will either not vote or vote for Trump deciding if it's worth the trouble of going to the polls in a pandemic to do so
- Progressives who are either going to vote for Biden or throw their vote away on a joke vote or something like that

That's really it.  I can't see anyone possibly going back and forth between Biden and Trump because they're so diametrically opposed to each other.  It would be like choosing to get burgers for dinner or drive 1000 miles, renting a boat, and going deep sea fishing.

1,418 (edited by ireactions 2020-09-01 16:11:00)

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

I think any real movement in the polls is variability in enthusiasm among voters who have largely made up their minds. The question is whether or not they'll be able to vote. Slate.com has released a guide on the best way to vote in each state: https://slate.com/news-and-politics/202 … guide.html

In 2016, the main problem with Democrats was that voters who disliked Trump and Clinton equally and went with the lesser known politician. In 2020, those voters who dislike Trump and Biden equally are going with the one who is inclined to save them from COVID-19 rather than pretending that it'll magically disappear with no federal response.

As for those who support a president who's collapsed their economy, destroyed their jobs, attacked their health care and intends to let them die without lifting a finger to help them -- they're in a cult of personality where their fealty and independent thinking have been subsumed to following their chosen leader rather than see that they voted and will vote again for someone who has betrayed them. It insulates them from seeing the horror of their situation and so they march in streets unmasked, call Dr. Fauci a fraud for telling them hard truths and claim a gunman who shot unarmed man was acting in self defense when he fired on those trying to disarm him. (By this logic, a murderer can only be charged for his first kill and the rest of his body count doesn't count at all.)

Then there who see Trump clearly and will vote for him because they are fortunate to benefit economically from Trump. Such supporters have seized upon the COVID crisis to extract more wealth from the poor.

The rest see Trump for what he is: someone who will inflict his views on people with coersion, rhetoric, attacks drawing on improvised fantasy -- and they admire that because they too go through the world shouting down anyone who disagrees with them, seeking to defeat them with volume and grievance rather than facts and respect for subjectivity.

Informant called you and me liars for viewing the Marvel Cinematic Universe as a success for releasing 13 hit movies in eight years and viewing the DC Extended Universe as a failure. (The DCEU is airing its finale on a streaming network.) He admired that Trump didn't need facts, information, teamwork, curiosity or any need to update his views based on information, even unwelcome information. Informant likes a bully. A lot of Trump supporters do and might feel diminished by a pandemic only to be fired up by a convention that pretends the pandemic doesn't exist and encourages them to do the same.

I don't want to believe that's all Americans. I confess that I think poorly of Americans because I see most of them as Trump and Informant. But in recent weeks, I listen to Grandpop and I don't see you that way at all. I see this:

Joe Biden wrote:

This is the United States of America. Any time we've ever set our minds to something, we've never failed as long as we've done it together.

Everybody thinks that we've led the world because we're the most powerful nation in the world. And that's true. We are. But we've not led by the example of our power. It's been the power of our example.

I really believe that the vast majority of the American people are truly decent. I think they're angry right now. I think they're fed up. I think they're looking for some authenticity and honesty. I think it's going to be hard, but I think they're going to be with us.

Biden has not done anything to piss me off in three whole weeks and he keeps doing everything I ask him to do in my fan mail including requesting the release of Tara Reade's documents, reminding the world that he has a stutter, adopting the Green New Deal in all but name and handling crazy people with calm.

(Biden emerged from a limo in Pittsburgh carrying three boxes of pizza for some firefighters at their station. A heckler standing atop a truck started screaming at Biden about how Biden was going to eliminate fracking and decimate the oil and gas industry. I feared another crazed eruption of incoherence from Grandpa Joe, but Biden merely looked at the man sternly and called out, "Don't jump!" Thank God. Let's see if Gramps can make it one more week without blowing his stack and then it'll have been a month.)

1,419

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Well the latest (to no one's surprise) for Trump is that he's referred to American soldiers and war dead as losers and suckers.  At this point, I'm not sure how people cannot still be swayed to vote for this piece of garbage, but there you go.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

I regret to say I don't see this moving the needle. Trump supporters will either declare that Trump is right to call veterans names or deny he said it or claim there was some nuance to his statement that twists it to say that veterans aren't treated well. We've all seen Informant claim that Trump's inauguration crowds were huge or that Trump didn't mock a disabled reporter and was merely gesturing or that Trump isn't a white supremacist and merely respectful of history and Informant isn't even stupid, just determined to guard his cult.

I want to believe what Biden says about most Americans being decent, but the truth is that 40 per cent of them feel validated by their current president and while 40 per cent is less than most, it's alarmingly close to half.

1,421

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

well 40% would mean Trump is routed in November.  obviously my concern is the number is more like 48%!!!

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

As long as the polling is even vaguely correct, none of this matters.  If you look at state polling, Biden already has more than 270 electoral votes even with Ohio, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina still in play.  Biden's likely voters need to vote and their votes need to count, but if that happens, all of this is essentially just stuff to talk about until Biden takes the White House.

I was starting to waver a little bit around the convention, but I'm back to supreme confidence in Biden's victory.  He has so many avenues to victory and Trump really only has one (win all the swing states and flip at least one Biden state).  That state might be Pennsylvania (which Biden is still winning but is now within the margin of error), but then Biden needs just about any state and it's over.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

And here we go:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-left- … y?ref=home

One of many notes on the planning:

Some of the hurdles were straightforward: how you “occupy shit, hold space, and shut things down, not just on Election Day but for weeks,” explained one source familiar with the Democracy Defense Nerve Center operations

We seem to have one side prepping for all out war.  It takes two to tango, though.  As much as the article lays out fears of Trump not accepting defeat, is there any scenario where the Democratic Party will accept defeat?  It seems war is inevitable.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

I don't see how it's "one side prepping for all out war" when the Trump administration has called for delaying election day, called mail-in ballots fraudulent despite the president using them himself, called for military force to intimidate voters in Democrat cities, wants federal agents to do the same, declared that only Election Day results should be accepted and that mail-in ballots should be discarded, says that any loss on his end can only be due to fraud even when he's losing every national poll, is bragging about crippling the US Postal Service to prevent people from voting against him, is denying foreign interference in his favour even after being impeached for courting it and has every intention of using the full force of his office to steal the election.

Democrats would be insane and suicidal not to run the war games and prepare for Trump administration's loudly advertised tactics and self-confessed intentions to prevent counting all votes in the election, to make it as difficult as possible to vote in the election, to declare victory regardless of the outcome and to refuse to accept any result other than the one the Trump administration wants. It isn't arson to hear a fire alarm and start reaching for an extinguisher. It isn't bioterror to see mounting infections and wear a mask.

The Democrats accepted defeat in 2016 when their polls put Clinton's lead over Trump within the usual margin of polling error and the results put her slightly behind instead of what they thought was slightly ahead. Biden's lead is well above the margin of error.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

That’s what I mean, though.  If neither side sees any scenario where they could concede, then the only outcome is for one side to start killing the other until somebody surrenders.  That’s what war is; and that’s where we’re headed (some places are already flirting with it).

I’m not taking a side here; but when we strip away all the laws and rules of civilization, the only way left to settle disputes is the old way.  I don’t want to see that happen.

I’ll put it like this.  Right now it’s looking like no matter who I vote for, there’s going to be bloody war.

1,426 (edited by ireactions 2020-09-08 20:57:56)

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Well, I believe in America. I mean, I just read the entire SECRET EMPIRE storyline on Marvel Unlimited where Captain America is rewritten into a HYDRA agent who believes that the Nazis originally won WWII until history was altered and he only just got his true memories back. I felt great relief when the original Captain America was restored and returned to take his counterpart to jail and found the story a pointed commentary on the modern era. I believe in what it had to offer.

And I believe that, ultimately, Trump's efforts to curtail and prevent the vote will backfire: that DeJoy will be too intimidated by a House investigation and his prominent and likely criminal profile to stop mail-in voting anymore than he already has and that the measures to bypass his interference will be successful. That Trump's efforts to seize the ballot boxes before the votes can be counted will be curtailed due to his own ineptitude and effective legal challenges from the Democrats who are already preparing for it. That Biden's victory will be so obvious and thorough on Election Night that counting the mail-in ballots becomes a formality rather than a blue shift. That cooler heads will prevail. That Trump, demoralized and boxed in, will flee in terror and abandon his efforts as he has so many failed business ventures.

Admittedly...

Barack Obama wrote:

Don't underestimate Joe's ability to fuck things up.

I don't know that things will work out. But I hope it. And I have faith in the ideals of this country and the people who live in it.

**

In other news, the Trump campaign has gone from a $1 billion war chest that Obama worried about to having $200 million left in the bank despite being six to ten points behind Biden. How could they have spent so much and had so little to show for it? The answer: Trump has been using campaign funds to pay his own legal fees, to hand massive amounts to his family members, and spent little of his campaign budget on the actual campaign. In addition, his fundraising has flatlined badly because he refuses to engage in the 90 minute Zoom sessions that have allowed the Biden campaign to rise and catch up financially.

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/202 … -cash.html

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Would there be violence?  I would think so.

Anything I would consider all out war?  I don't see it.  I know people are going to be upset and mad, but I just don't know if people are willing to fight to the death over Donald Trump.  On either side.  Because we get this every election - people saying they'd move to Canada if so-and-so didn't win.  No one ever does.  Because moving to Canada is hard and expensive, and they don't want any more Americans up there right now.

I think there would be protests and looting in either case.  And violent celebrations like when a country wins the World Cup or when a city wins the Super Bowl.

But again, I don't think people are willing to die for Donald Trump.  And there would still be police and the national guard and even the military to quickly put anything down before anything got out of hand.

I think we get big and tough and have a lot of bluster when we're online.  But when it comes down to it, are people going to endanger their lives because the guy they like didn't win the presidency?  Endanger their kids lives?  Burn down all the things they claim to love in some sort of temper tantrum because they didn't get what they wanted?

I hope everyone is better than that.

1,428

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Well, the Woodward book excerpts get worse and worse.  Trump lied to the American public in February about COVID-19 "to prevent a panic" yet he's spent the last 2 months throwing gasoline on protests to induce exactly that in suburban voters.

Meanwhile, looks like Fire Within World has come to San Fran....

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EhfsEmgWkAAgUji?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

I don't know what's going to happen. But I believe in truth. And I'm a big fan of justice. And I am always heartened by the unique capacity that America has for both. It hasn't always lived up to it. But I believe that it can. I have hope.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Did you intentionally quote Joss Whedon's Superman? big_smile

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Yes.

**

Trump inexplicably bragged to Bob Woodward that Trump knew the virus was deadly and a pandemic was real but lied about it in public. Woodward has released the audio recordings. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/pol … 768376002/

In another piece of bizarre Trumpian projection, Trump blamed Biden for failing to lay out a national mask mandate. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/pol … 814307002/

It’s a nonsensical accusation because former Vice President Biden has no authority to enact a national mask mandate because he is not currently president. It’s like under the bluster, Trump already considers Biden president and has accepted defeat.

But I wouldn’t get comfortable. With the USPS slowing the mail and gerrymandering and voter intimidation and roll purges, it’s going to take a landslide for Democrats to eke out a win.

1,432

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Also, the polls are tightening.  Biden's virtual campaigning isn't working.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

pilight wrote:

Also, the polls are tightening.  Biden's virtual campaigning isn't working.

Well the national polls are tightening.  The swing state polls are holding pretty steady.  The midwest and Arizona look like locks for Biden.  If they are, Biden just needs one of: North Carolina (Trump barely winning), Georgia (Trump barely winning), Ohio (Trump barely winning), Pennsylvania (Biden winning by above the margin of error), or Florida (Biden barely winning) to win.

The thought is that Trump's just solidifying his lead in red states because any bump he's gotten in the national polls isn't showing up in the swing state ones.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

What blows my mind is that Trump sat down and agreed to recorded conversations with Bob Woodward.  Then Trump does an ABC town hall which anyone should have known would be heavily stacked against him.  It’s new level stupid.

People compare Biden to Mr Magoo, but they’ve clearly never watched Mr Magoo.  The fumbling, oblivious blind man always walking into danger and coming out of it smelling like a rose.  That’s been Trump so far.

https://iili.io/2ohjYx.jpg

1,435

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

The national polls are exactly where they were pre-COVID, with Biden up at least 7 points, which is a deficit well beyond the Trump "silent majority" and would make even an electoral college win for Don statistically impossible.  This does not of course rule out rampant cheating on the Trump campaign's part, though honestly how much affect could that have?

Trump spoke to Woodward because he was annoyed by his last book.  Remember Trump is OBSESSED with mainstream press, and how they write/talk about him.  He reads newspapers constantly, to see exactly what they write, he is morbidly insecure.  He decided, since he IS a stable genius, that if he were allowed to have input on a new book, it would come out far better.  He truly believed he would simply talk, Bob would listen, and write it all down verbatim.  Which as we know, is exactly what happened, except that, Trump was the one doing the talking!  He just simply does not believe what he says is wrong, even though, as the tapes prove, Trump knows he is lying.  It disproves the trope that DJT is so stupid that he fouls up at every opportunity.  No, in fact, he has purposely lied and misled from the pulpit every chance he's had. 

The ABC Town Hall, which at the end of the day, I doubt many will actually have seen, since anything Trump does has shitty ratings.  That being said, his backers often praise him for appearing before "critics" only to be made a fool of.  They then retreat to the Fox News mini-universe where nothing is wrong and all is good.  His campaign agreed with the suggestion that he do a FOUR HOUR podcast debate with Biden hosted by Joe Rogan.  Can anyone imagine the nonsense he'd spew for that long?

1,436

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Slider_Quinn21 wrote:
pilight wrote:

Also, the polls are tightening.  Biden's virtual campaigning isn't working.

Well the national polls are tightening.  The swing state polls are holding pretty steady.  The midwest and Arizona look like locks for Biden.  If they are, Biden just needs one of: North Carolina (Trump barely winning), Georgia (Trump barely winning), Ohio (Trump barely winning), Pennsylvania (Biden winning by above the margin of error), or Florida (Biden barely winning) to win.

The thought is that Trump's just solidifying his lead in red states because any bump he's gotten in the national polls isn't showing up in the swing state ones.

You say that, but the EV total of the states Biden is leading is down to 290.  That's the lowest it's been since Biden secured the nomination.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Where are you getting 290 votes for Biden? Five Thirty Eight puts him at 326 and they warned of a Trump victory in 2016. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 … -forecast/

The Economist projects 334. https://projects.economist.com/us-2020- … /president

NPR puts 101 votes as a toss up with Biden holding 268 and Trump holding 169 meaning Biden only needs to win one toss up state out of six whereas Trump needs all six. On paper, Trump is done. https://www.npr.org/2020/09/16/91200417 … till-ahead

In reality, there’s an issue of voter suppression.

1,438 (edited by Grizzlor 2020-09-16 22:05:18)

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

https://www.270towin.com/2020-election- … edictions/

They list all the maps out.  290 would include Biden winning Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Arizona, all states he is ahead on average above the margin of error.  That does not include Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, Ohio, George, or Texas, all of which Trump leads or trails WITHIN the margin of error.  Nor are most of the maps giving those states to Trump, most of them are simply "toss ups" right now.

That means if the polls stand, and wind up being accurate within 2-3 points off the RCP average, as they have been in every election besides 2016, Trump will lose and lose "bigly."  In fact, you could argue that Biden's margins are actually very close to the polling from 2012 in which his former boss won easily.  Obama's polling was actually underestimated in the RCP averages that year in several states. 

So again, unless the polls are once again, grotesquely inaccurate like 2016, Trump will lose.  That's without even talking about his laughably bad approval rating (-double digits), unfavorables (-double digits), and Biden's favorables (+5).

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

I don't think Biden is a lock.  I'll just start with that.

But if things go the way they should, Biden should absolutely win.  538 has Biden at a 75% chance of winning and that's including Rasmussen polls (which are getting more biased and thus more wrong since 2016).  That also includes built-in shenanigans from both the coronavirus and the Trump administration (as best they could).  I would think if this were a normal election, it'd be much closer to the 84% that we see from the Economist.  Maybe higher.

I would 100% hope that as many people go and vote as soon as the early voting happens.  I'm going to make sure I can go day one.  Get your vote in, in person, and if something is wrong with your voter record, you have time to try and sort it out.  If you're worried about violence or lines or coronavirus, you can pick your location.  In Texas, they give a status on how long the wait is at each place and you can vote at any of them.  If you see people with guns or you see a line or you're worried about cleanliness, you can go somewhere else.

I know people don't have unlimited free time, especially from work...especially now.  But you have time to work with your boss/supervisor and get time off.  If you can easily get away, you could only miss an hour of work and you have a month to swap shifts with someone, pick up some extra time to make up for any lost pay, etc.  There will be people that will have to get off for election day - volunteer to swap shifts with them so you can vote early. 

There are ways to make it work.  Every time I've voted early, I was in and out in less than 10 minutes.  I've done it every single elections I've been eligible for.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Nothing is a lock. And nothing should ever be a lock. America is the birthplace to the finest ideals in human history, the belief that all are created equal and that we are one and that the loyalty of its citizens is not to an office or a politician or a leader but to the Dream.

Americans have never fully lived up to that, but every time they have committed to the founding ideals that every person should be able to live out their full potential if they put in the work, they have prevailed. I am so proud to be a neighbour to a country that produced the life-affirming philosophies and spirit of equality and decency espoused by Superman and Captain America and Anna from the movie FROZEN. No other nation could have could have created them.

America is in a bad place right now. But Americans have never failed to accomplish anything so long as they have done it together. Americans have never been defeated so long as they've been united. And I don't believe they will be defeated now.

I don't know that for a fact. I can't prove it because what convinces me that a new dawn is coming is based on polling statistics.  Polling statistics don't necessarily reflect on-the-ground difficulties and polls have margins of error and the incumbent president is empowered to exercise his corruption to the fullest extent of his office. There are serious problems ahead. Massive, taxing battles that will cost us dearly. Success is not assured. I don't know that you'll win it. But I hope it. And I am counting on it.

(Yes, I'm intentionally quoting some of my (reluctantly) favourite Americans.)

(I cannot emphasize enough in the name of Quinn's cat, Wade's teddy bear, Rembrandt's afro and the Professor's three piece suit that the views of ireactions do not reflect those of the Sliders.tv community.)

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

And the finger tapped three times when the calendar turned to September.

Still waiting on the bank vision, but rumors are that England is about to implement negative interest rates.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

RBG died.

I do wonder how this effects the election.  One of the reasons to vote for Trump would be for the Court.  If they rush through a confirmation, there's less reason to vote for Trump.  You might think you got 3 justices out and it doesn't matter after that.  Maybe Breyer retires or dies in the next four years, but RBG's spot was the jewel.  I'm fairly certain a lot of conservatives would happily trade a Biden win for another justice and call it a day.

But McConnell sucks.  And Lindsey Graham is showing him to be the piece of shit we all knew him to be.

RIP Justice Ginsburg.  You did a hell of a job.

1,443

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

I doubt it affects the election much.  Filling court seats was already a big issue and nobody thought RBG would serve four more years.  The seat will probably be filled before the election anyway.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

I am not sure McConnell has the votes. He may. And for optics, Democrats need to fight it, although I can’t see how they could stop it.

But I don’t think they need to win this fight. Let Trump and McConnell put a Conservative majority on the Supreme Court. Democrats can use that to show how that majority will ensure an end to health care and women’s reproductive rights unless a Biden presidency and a Democratic Senate can add more judges to rebalance the Supreme Court. Ginsburg’s sad passing and threatened legacy have led to a swell of fundraising gains for Democrats.

Republicans can win this battle. They probably will because right now, they have more power. But there are more Americans than there are Republicans. There are always going to be more Americans than there are Republicans because Americans care about each other and Republicans only care about power.

(The views of ireactions do not reflect those of the Sliders.tv community.)

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

pilight wrote:

I doubt it affects the election much.  Filling court seats was already a big issue and nobody thought RBG would serve four more years.  The seat will probably be filled before the election anyway.

Yeah but if you're a Republican who isn't in the cult of Trump, what reason is there to hold your nose and vote for him?  He's already given you three, and there's only an outside chance he'd get one more.  If you're a 2A or an abortion voter, Trumps already given you everything you want.  There's no reason to vote for him.

1,446

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

The feeling is that the Democrats will pack the court.  They see the Democratic platform say "Since 1990, the United States has grown by one-third, the number of cases in federal district courts has increased by 38 percent, federal circuit court filings have risen by 40 percent, and federal cases involving a felony defendant are up 60 percent, but we have not expanded the federal judiciary to reflect this reality in nearly 30 years." and are convinced they will try to add more judges at all levels, including the SC.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

There is no more honor among either party, so there’s no reason to follow any “rules”.  It’s a sad reality, but it’s where we’re at.

If the Democrats win full control, they have been very open about their plans to stack the courts, stack the House, stack the Senate and stack the electoral college.  No Republican will have control of any level of the federal government ever again.  And then we’ll have exactly what America was before the Revolution - rule by one “family”.

Of course, for those paying attention, we’ve only had one party ruling government for a long while now.  For good or ill, it only started to change with Trump.  He’s a wild card.  And Trump proved that the Republicans have lost control of their voters; so the charade is going to end, and the Republicans won’t be allowed to have a say any longer.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

I do want to add, though - If Trump nominates Amy Coney Barrett, she just went through a confirmation hearing in 2017 before this same judiciary committee (same people).  All they need to review is the past three years.  They don’t have to review her lifetime unless they just dropped the ball and didn’t review it the first time.

My point - it shouldn’t take long to confirm Barrett because these same senators already did the bulk of the work in 2017.  But if some of them want to stand up say, “I forgot to ask something the last time Amy was given a lifetime judicial appointment” - well, that’s frankly hilarious.

1,449

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

I'm just not sure that Democrats have the support internally to upend the system.  Adding justices, I do not see that as incredibly likely.  Passing D.C. statehood to expand the Senate I'd assume may be on the table though. 

Anyhow, Murkowski and Collins have said no confirmation vote before the election.  Presuming if there is a vote, and those two vote against, which is not assured, you'd need two more Senators to say the same thing and Mitch is stopped.  The putrid hypocrisy from Lindsay Graham or Marco Rubio on this topic is obvious, having defended the election year BS re:Merrick Garland 4 years ago. 

I'm not betting on anything at this point.  I think both Republican Senators and Trump are going to question whether McConnell's rush job will have significant effects on November 3rd.  I do feel that if they do not have the confirmation before it, the amount of backlash during a lame duck may well be even worse.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

TemporalFlux wrote:

If the Democrats win full control, they have been very open about their plans to stack the courts, stack the House, stack the Senate and stack the electoral college.  No Republican will have control of any level of the federal government ever again.  And then we’ll have exactly what America was before the Revolution - rule by one “family”.

I think there's a real concern for this, but I don't even think they need to stack anything for it to happen.  For all the Republicans' celebrations of the Electoral College and the Democrats' condemnations of it, the EC is what's going to lock up Democratic power in the White House for a long time.  Once Texas flips (and it's only a matter of time), the Republicans in their current state have zero chance.  Right now, they essentially need to sweep every swing state to barely win.  If Texas is blue, they'd need to start flipping blue states...not just purple ones.

But I think there's an out for all this chaos.  Maybe a few.

1. The GOP in its current form dies and something replaces it.  We're probably due for something like this.  The Whigs died off.  Democrats and Republicans have rebranded before.  Maybe it'll still be called Republicans or something similar, but Trump could end up killing off the GOP as we know it (win or lose) and something would rise from the ashes.  Because the current strategy of "mostly uneducated white people" is not a strong one.  I think there are plenty of avenues to get people who are tired of both parties.  And if the Republicans rebrand, the Democrats could do the same.  Could be positive change.

2. The Democrats are on the verge of their own civil war.  There's a decent chance that the Democratic Party breaks into two - we'll call it the Biden Party and the Bernie Party for lack of better terms.  That would also help the Republicans either hold out for longer or help their new party gain traction.  I could see a timeline where the Republicans die, the Democrats take over and then schism, and then the Republicans come back.  Three parties for a time until we get back to two.

3. The Democrats are really bad at this game.  This election should be an absolute landslide, but they make things difficult on themselves.  They made things difficult on themselves in 2016.  They even made things difficult for themselves when they had a supermajority.  They're usually in a position to get things done, but they usually blow it.