Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Trump’s personal assistant is sick. https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/04/politics … index.html

I never cease to be amazed that people will take jobs with this diseased looney tune.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

The Daily Beast has a (paywalled) article pondering why Donald Trump Jr. is so obsessed with Hunter Biden, constantly calling him a "crackhead" and accusing him of being in Vladimir Putin's pocket. The projection is obvious: Trump and Trump Jr. accuse others of that which they are guilty; Trump Jr. tweeted about Biden's sexual harassment which only serves to remind people of Trump having over 20 assault accusations. Trump Jr. claiming Putin bribed Hunter Biden only reminds people of the Mueller investigation and the Trump impeachment.

But Trump Jr. is so singularly fixated on Hunter Biden himself -- and Molly Jong-Fast at TDB suggests that Trump Jr. is jealous. His father, for all his many, many, many flaws, does not use intoxicants. Trump may eat 5 - 10 hamburgers in a meal, but he reportedly doesn't drink alcohol or use recreational drugs and looks down upon people who do, considers them weaklings and losers. In contrast, Trump Jr. is clearly intoxicated in numerous videos of his public appearances. Trump Jr. was arrested for public intoxication and was reportedly an alcoholic in college. And I'm sure that his father addressed this with his usual belittlement, abusiveness, mockery, cruelty and savagery and their relationship today is based on Trump using Trump Jr. as a surrogate and spokesperson. That's it. That's all.

Trump has no love for his son, only expedience and contempt. To be an addict is to be weak, Trump says, and I've no doubt he's said that to his son and that's why Trump attacked Hunter Biden at the debate and brought up Hunter's cocaine addiction, viewing Hunter with the same disdain Trump has for his own son. But Biden responded, "My son, like a lot of people, had a drug problem. He’s overtaken it. He’s fixed it. He’s worked on it. And I’m proud of him. I'm proud of my son."

Trump would never be proud of his son for battling addiction, would never maintain any love his son even if he had a addiction, didn't love his son even before the addiction. His children are props to him; he uses his daughter to distract men in business meetings, he uses his sons to repeat his own rhetoric. Jong-Fast wonders if Donald Trump Jr. is jealous that Hunter Biden could share some of his failures and still be loved by his father while Trump Jr. is unloved by his own.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

TemporalFlux wrote:

In addition to QAnon, Baba Vanga predicted the President would get sick:

(Vanga has also been shown to be some kind of urban legend propagated on Russian social media, but it’s interesting in understanding where these wild ideas come from).

The only shock is that Trump hasn't caught CV by now! 

The number infected is just going to grow.  The Republican Senators all had lunch each day last week, probably spread it further.  McConnell is sadistically trying to ram Barrett into the Supreme Court.  They're recessing for a couple weeks but will return with like a week left before they recess again for the election.  As of now, they do not have a quorum (51 Senators present), because the Democrats could simply fail to show up.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

CNN has statements and commentary. The White House says Trump is doing well. This simply isn’t true: Trump’s being treated with drugs to increase severely low blood oxygen and lower inflammation, drugs that also suppress the immune system and would only be prescribed if the patient were in such dire straits that they need to be kept breathing now so they can fight off the virus later. It’s bad and while I don’t care about the well being of this deranged superspreader, I care about the country and a sick US President is a problem for everyone.

**

Biden stopping any negative ads against Trump is a courtesy to a sick man. But I can’t help but think it’s also practical. Why bother to spend any more money on making the case against Trump? His lax pandemic response and flagrant disregard for safety with superspreader event upon event has put him in the hospital. Trump has put himself his place and Biden might as well put the money towards sanitizer and masks for voters.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Well today Trump, who is taking 45 different drugs, including a steroid that makes you loopy, forced Secret Service to drive him outside to wave to his supporters and the Proud boys outside the hospital.  Unbelievably insane.  It's just nonstop at this point. 

Latest post-debate polling is awful for Trump, losing by 14.  Down TWENTY SEVEN with seniors!  At this rate, he's headed for a Reagan blowout of Carter 1980.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Trump has no chance if the election is even vaguely fair.  Most models have him getting blown out.  Just about all of them have Biden at 270+ before you even get into the real battleground states (with more and more red states turning purple with each poll).

Trump can only win with funny business.  And the only funny business he can logistically pull off is based on mail-in voting.  Vote in person.  Encourage everyone you know to vote in person.  No one is predicting that the election will be over on Election Night, but our best bet for a peaceful transition is for it to be over on Election Night.  The win needs to be evident to enough republicans that Trump won't be able to do anything about it.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

I wonder what funny business he could even pull at this point given how all the dirty tricks to steal an election depend on the results being close enough to contest and we're looking at a Biden blowout. Biden and Trump were evenly matched in Florida, but now Biden has a five point lead. Mail-in ballots are counted earlier in Florida. Florida is likely to have a result on Election Night. If Trump wins Florida on Election Night, he wins the 29 electoral votes to possibly scrape a win in the Electoral College while losing the popular vote -- if Biden loses Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

If Biden wins Florida, then Trump needs to win Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania and also two out of three states with Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. And in these states, Trump is only ahead of Biden in Georgia.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

The key states on Nov. 3 will be Ohio and Florida, because they count ballots as they arrive, so their figures at night will be quite full.  If Biden has either of those called for him, it's over.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Trump’s press secretary, Kayleigh McEnany, has tested positive. The White House has continued to decline to have staffers wear masks.

You know, there’s a lot of crazy happening in the world. How stupid do these people think it’s safe to be? There’s a lot that can ensicken and kill you even without warnings and advice from the CDC and a White House medical team. So refusing to distance and wear masks in a pandemic and then predictably getting infected is not calculated to my sympathies. (Paraphrasing Steven Moffat.)

1,510 (edited by Grizzlor 2020-10-05 10:37:14)

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Trump is promoting https://www.armyfortrump.com/ which is a ridiculous moniker.  It's nothing but voter intimidation squads.  And yes, we already have a fucking Army in this county.  It's called the United States Army.

The White House is in total turmoil, the worst since probably when Reagan was shot.  You have Mark Meadows supposedly lying to reporters, and Trump is furious with him.  There are reports Trump and the SECRETARY OF DEFENSE Mark Esper have not spoken to each other in MONTHS!  MONTHS!!!  Likely since Esper threw him under the bus for the upside down Bible photo op.  Meanwhile the Vice President Mike Pence is NOT quarantining, traveling around the country doing campaigning, and intends to do a debate in Utah.  There's not a shred of common sense among them.  Pelosi continues to pass CV relief packages that McConnell won't even debate on the floor.

28 positive WH-orbit #COVID19 cases

Donald Trump
Melania Trump
Kayleigh McEnany
Hope Hicks
Kellyanne Conway
Chris Christie
Sen Mike Lee
Sen Thom Tillis
Sen Ron Johnson
Ronna McDaniel
John Jenkins
Bill Stepien
Nick Luna
1x WH jr staffer
3x reporters
11x Ohio debate staff

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Stephen Miller has COVID-19. So does Jason Miller. Couldn't have happened to a nicer pair of Trump advisors and campaign aides.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/06/politics … index.html

Pence also seems eager to get COVID-19, refusing to have plexiglass on his end when he debates Kamala Harris. Harris will have plexiglass. https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/06/politics … index.html

The Supreme Court is now requiring witness signatures on South Carolina mail in ballots, but ballots sent by October 5 and received by October 7 will be exempted. The determinedly conservative judges are looking for any excuse to throw out mail in ballots after they've been sent. https://slate.com/news-and-politics/202 … ature.html

Biden says he won't debate Trump if Trump is still testing positive. I think we can agree there is no point to debating Trump. https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/06/politics … index.html

Grandpa Biden says about an hour of comforting things in a CNBC town hall and I fall asleep listening. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A5pPSv_Htgw

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

If I was Biden, I wouldn't debate Trump.  Covid can be the excuse.  The rules can be the excuse.  It doesn't help Biden to do it.  He's up by anywhere from 5-14 points, and that number is rising.  Trump is DOA, and only some sort of Biden gaffe can make this interesting again.  If I were Biden, I'd spend all my time in Pennsylvania.  He made big gains recently there, now up more than 6%, and there's just not a legitimate path to victory if Trump doesn't win Pennsylvania.  And instead of debate prep, I'd be working on making sure that people vote early and vote in person.  The Biden team's attention needs to be on making sure that polling places are safe - both from the virus and the Republicans.

Trump decided to tell the American people that he's going to hold the stimulus package.  Which is one of the dumbest things that I think he could've done.  More than 70% of Americans are in favor of another stimulus, and the media narrative was that the Democrats were holding it up (or at least that was most of the narrative).  Pelosi's numbers were down.  And then Trump goes out of his way to say "nope!  I'm the one holding your money."  As Nate Silver said, the economy was Trump's one way back and he's trying to knock that one off the board.

This is what's really interesting
https://news.yahoo.com/donald-trump-jr- … 13470.html

I wonder how much of this is true.  If it's true that the Trumps are massively in debt and Trump is doing some really bizarre things...I could see this being the case.  Trump is losing big, and anyone who looks at the data (any source) would know that it looks really bad for him (he's down to 18% on 538's election forecast, well below the number he was at in 2016).  I don't know if Don Jr wants his dad to stay in politics, but if Don Jr wants to go into politics, he's going to need his dad to stay popular.  And if Trump is truly only listening to Ivanka and Jared, he's going to make terrible decisions.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

You guys forgot the entire Joint Chiefs of the Pentagon are in quarantine.  Trump had a maskless Gold Star family event inside the WH the day after the Barrett event.  He's going down in flames, and the question will be how many Republicans burn with him?

I saw the Don Jr. thing the other day.  The children are scared of Daddy Donny, they won't do squat.  Eric Trump was forced to testify the other day in NYC.  It's the legal and financial fallout which Don Jr. is most afraid of.  Ivanka doesn't care because Kushner has his own money, she's taken care of.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Report on the Kamala Harris/whatshisface debate:

Couldn't stay awake. It was probably fine. Admittedly, that's what I said about Season 4 of SLIDERS before I actually saw it.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Besides the fly on Pence's head, the story was women felt Harris won 70/30, while men were split.  It's really telling and you can easily see how those numbers are very very close to the national polls seeing a split with men, and historic gap between the two with females.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

It was a much more traditional debate in that both sides went through their talking points, nothing was learned, and no minds were changed

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

My only notes from the debate:

1. I don't know why Harris and Biden won't give a straight answer on stacking the Supreme Court.  Obviously evading the question is the same as answering it.  Just like Pence and Trump obviously evading the "will you accept the results" is the same as answering it.  They need to have a better answer, or they just need to say "yes, we plan on doing that."  What they're doing is effectively the same thing.

2. I thought Pence came off very unlikeable.  I don't know if Harris did a good job, but Pence came off as disrespectful and haughty.  His answer on the "will you accept the results" question was just as disturbing as Trump's, and I have no idea why Harris and the moderator (who I thought was terrible) let him get away with it.  I've always seen Pence as the RNC liaison to Trump.  To see him use the same "I don't think we're going to lose so there's no point in even talking about it" was disturbing.

1,518 (edited by Grizzlor 2020-10-08 11:54:01)

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Pence was a talk radio host for years, so yes, he's mastered the art of communicating.  However, he interrupted and ignored the moderator most of the night.  Women judged his performance with great disdain.

Biden hasn't answered the Court question because I don't think he has decided on it.  Hell, even I haven't decided if I approve of adding justices.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Biden doesn't want to pack the Supreme Court, but he may have to. He has no enthusiasm for altering US institutions in such a fashion, but he recognizes that the court is already packed with Trumpists and Republicans. He doesn't want to eliminate the filibuster, but he may have to if he wants to get anything done. There's also the risk that the Democrats don't win the Senate in which case they can't commit to what they need the Senate to do.

**

Trump won't debate Biden virtually, and won't debate him at all on October 15. Biden has decided to do an ABC town hall moderated by George Stephanopoulos. I don't know about you, but I could go for listening to Grandpa saying vaguely encouraging and comforting things.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/0 … ate-427810

**

I don't refer to Biden as Grandpa to be derogatory. Biden reminds me of my grandfather on my father's side.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

ireactions wrote:

Biden doesn't want to pack the Supreme Court, but he may have to. He has no enthusiasm for altering US institutions in such a fashion, but he recognizes that the court is already packed with Trumpists and Republicans. He doesn't want to eliminate the filibuster, but he may have to if he wants to get anything done.

This makes some sense.  I've been listening to a lot of FiveThirtyEight's political podcast recently, and they speculated that Biden should pull a "you made me do this" with the Republicans.  Saying they won't stack the court if they don't proceed with their nomination.  That 4-5 may be preferable to 7-6.  But maybe he can't say that because it would make the senate races worse.  Maybe someone like Lindsey Graham wins their race because Republicans know they can't lose the Senate and the White House.

****

It sounds like they might agree to an in-person debate for October 22.  I think that would make some sense, but if I'm Biden, I don't see the point.  He debated Trump.  His VP debated Pence.  I don't think there's a ton of room for this race to get much more lopsided than it already is.  I think there's only room for it to get closer.  There's no point in risking it.  The debates aren't adding anything to the race, and there's just the risk that Biden says something that either loses moderate voters or far left ones.

I'm sure Biden doesn't want to besmirch the process, and I'm sure he doesn't think he can ruin it.  But we're really close and Biden's both winning over new voters and strengthening his lead.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

ireactions wrote:

I don't refer to Biden as Grandpa to be derogatory. Biden reminds me of my grandfather on my father's side.

God Forbid if your family reminded you of Trump!

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Every time I see an article about crazy people in Michigan trying to kidnap the governor, I wonder if Informant were among them.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/0 … gan-427953

Every time I see an article about people catching COVID after they went to a Trump rally without a mask or social distancing, I wonder if Informant is one of them.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/0 … ses-428425

Every time I read about poll watchers trying to intimidate voters, I wonder if Informant has enlisted among them.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/0 … ing-427008

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Just to recap, one candidate has been endorsed by the Proud Boys and other associated White Supremacist groups AND the Taliban, while the other was endorsed by the New England Journal of Medicine.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

ireactions wrote:

Every time I see an article about crazy people in Michigan trying to kidnap the governor, I wonder if Informant were among them.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/0 … gan-427953

Every time I see an article about people catching COVID after they went to a Trump rally without a mask or social distancing, I wonder if Informant is one of them.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/0 … ses-428425

Every time I read about poll watchers trying to intimidate voters, I wonder if Informant has enlisted among them.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/0 … ing-427008

This is probably true and that's sad.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Well -- it's true that I *wonder* if that's the case. It's not necessarily the case. I was recently telling a bunch of people things that Informant has said in my last two posts about writing murder mysteries and being interested in how process and techniques used by other writers in the Writers Room thread. http://sliders.tv/bboard/viewtopic.php?pid=10509#p10509 I then declared that I would have to say something mocking about Informant if I were going to compliment him as a writer.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Yeah I mistyped I guess.  I don't think he'd kidnap a governor or intimidate voters.  But I could definitely see him not social distancing and not wearing a mask at a rally.

I think we're probably worse off, conversation-wise, without someone from the other side (we're all at least left-leaning I think), but I think too far in the other direction is a bit toxic.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/1 … ght-428856

This is an interesting thoughtpiece.  Trump will certainly press for a winner on Election night, but what if he's not winning?  He'll obviously pivot to some sort of "let's count the ballots" stance, but he's got very few paths to victory, and as the article says, essentially zero that will be counted by election night unless he flips some states he's not expected to win.

The hope is that Trump isn't winning enough states on Election night (with just the votes that have been counted) that he can say "ELECTION OVER" and try to get people to stop counting.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Voted!  Very nice to finally get to do that!

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

I mailed the ballot in a few weeks ago. 

https://www.investors.com/news/biden-vs … tion-poll/

IBD/TIPP predicted Trump win in 2016, now say he's doomed.

As for the election night, it's likely many states like Wisconsin or Pennsylvania will not be close to done counting.  However, Arizona, Ohio, Florida, Texas probably will.  Even if they are super close or Trump narrowly prevails in say Ohio, you can make demographic/exit poll comparisons to the slower states.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Slider_Quinn21 wrote:

Yeah I mistyped I guess.  I don't think he'd kidnap a governor or intimidate voters.  But I could definitely see him not social distancing and not wearing a mask at a rally.

I think we're probably worse off, conversation-wise, without someone from the other side (we're all at least left-leaning I think), but I think too far in the other direction is a bit toxic.

The issue isn’t left wing vs right wing. It’s about critical thinking versus cult thinking. Informant is incapable of questioning Donald Trump even when Trump is actively trying to kill him and embraces proven frauds and liars so long as they reassure him in his Republican identity. He is too invested in his cult. If he were still here, he would post falsehoods. He’d say the pandemic is a hoax. That masks don’t protect people. That superspreaders aren’t real. That people aren’t getting sick and dying. That he can deliberately get infected to become immune. That voter fraud is massively proven and people should vote twice. Even Twitter won’t tolerate that level of life threatening deceit from Trump anymore.

Transmodiar and Temporal Flux don’t identify as Democrats. They don't support Joe Biden. But they are capable of criticizing both conservative and progressive positions. Transmodiar called Biden a senile bully and Obama’s presidency a ****show and described Trump as an inept idiot. Temporal Flux called Obama’s message of hope and change “bunk” and also renounced the Republican Party after it chose Trump to represent them while still warning that imbuing all political power with Democrats is simply cult behaviour under another a blue flag instead of a red hat.

While I may disagree a little or a lot, they are exercising critical thinking. They are not closed books to new data. They amend their ideologies to match new information. They don't amend information to match their ideologies.

They might not agree with you or me, but they wouldn’t lie to us or encourage us to believe untruths that could get us or others sick or arrested for voter fraud.

Critical thinkers welcome new information and questioning. Cultists repeat and rephrase what they’ve been told by a narrow set of sources chosen by ideology rather than veracity. I may be supporting Joe Biden in this election, but after he wins, I will be as critical of him as I am of Donald Trump and if he tells me not to wear a mask during a pandemic, I'll turn against him.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

You don't think election fraud is real?  Here's an example going on right now in California:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/12/us/p … boxes.html

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

ireactions wrote:

The issue isn’t left wing vs right wing. It’s about critical thinking versus cult thinking.

Oh, I agree.  But I still like to hear the far right insanity.  Maybe because I feel like I'm immune to it.  But I think hearing the crazy helps me center myself with the sane.

Classic villain origin, I know.

Grizzlor wrote:

As for the election night, it's likely many states like Wisconsin or Pennsylvania will not be close to done counting.  However, Arizona, Ohio, Florida, Texas probably will.  Even if they are super close or Trump narrowly prevails in say Ohio, you can make demographic/exit poll comparisons to the slower states.

Yeah this was the crux of the article I posted.  If Biden wins Florida, there's a chance he's at 270 before Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, or Michigan are even counted.  And, honestly, it really isn't even that big of a stretch.  That's Biden winning Arizona (where he's up fairly big) and Florida.  Trump could win Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, and Georgia, *and* sweep Wisconsin/Michigan/Pennsylvania and Biden still wins.

And there are still so many paths to victory for Biden if he doesn't win Florida, but any notion of Trump pulling funny business ends if Biden gets Florida.  Which we should know election night.

(Everything that I said would also work, obviously, if Biden gets Texas - which I still view as a fair longshot - I'd agree with 538's guess that it's around 30% - but that's still higher than their prediction that Trump wins at all)

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

pilight wrote:

You don't think election fraud is real?  Here's an example going on right now in California:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/12/us/p … boxes.html

That’s election fraud. That isn’t voter fraud and isn’t fabricating fake votes.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Slider_Quinn21 wrote:

Voted!  Very nice to finally get to do that!

God bless you, Rob.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Thank you!  Was a great honor to vote for Mr. Biden.  And being in a redder part of Texas, I made sure to double check my selection, both on the screen, and on the printed-out ballot.  Nothing changed and Biden's name clearly printed.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Current estimates are that we may see 150-160 million votes, well above the 137 million that voted in 2016.  Enthusiasm from likely voters is through the roof.  Meanwhile the Supreme Court once again stopped census takers, and the GOP proceeds with its cabal to pack the federal courts.  If those estimates remain, turnout would easily exceed 60% perhaps as high as 65%.  60% has not occurred since Kennedy/Johnson, while 65% hasn't happened since the days of Teddy Roosevelt!  I cannot possible see how that benefits Republicans nationally, as they traditionally get trounced in high turnout elections.  In fact, the % of likely voters who say that the outcome of the election is very important is higher than it's been in decades.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

I see the stories about long lines in early voting, and people standing there for up to ten hours to cast their vote.  I’ve only seen one group of people do that in this election - people standing in line for ten hours to get into a Trump rally.

Don’t be so sure about who these people are voting for.

http://primarymodel.com/

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

While I can't pretend to have a wide or comprehensive grasp of the full range of human behaviour, declaring that Trump supporters lined up for 10 hours means that all people in America who line up for 10 hours must be Trump supporters is... isn't that like saying that cars are in garages, so anyone standing in a garage is therefore a car? And why would it be a surprise that most voters you've seen personally are Trump supporters? Don't you live in a Republican state?

As for predictions, I don't see much merit in PrimaryModel.com, a model that declares Trump has a 91 per cent change of winning the presidency while also declaring, "This forecast is unconditional and final; hence not subject to any updating. It was first posted on March 2, 2020 on Twitter." Any model predicting the results of a November 2020 election and declares itself "unconditional" and "final" in March 2020 is suspicious, to put it mildly.

If we're going to take any model for predictions, it should be a model that is open to being updated based on new information based on something more current than projections finalized eight months before the election with some accounting for the pandemic, mail-in ballots, high turnout, voter suppression, electoral fraud, voter registration laws, ballot receipt laws. A model like https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 … -forecast/ which is perpetually ranking the quality of its data, cautioning that its metric could be off due to the pandemic, suspicious of convention bounces and other expectations that may not apply and open to being reworked with Biden at one point having a 67 in 100 chance of winning. And Five Thirty Eight also pointed out in 2016 that Trump was only a normal polling error behind Hillary and might actually be ahead. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/tr … d-clinton/

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

As I understand it, the Primary Model is based exclusively on data from the primary election totals.  The primaries are over, so the book is closed on that.  That’s how they were able to do these forecast back to 1912.  This wasn’t done in real time; they could only so far find reliable records going back to 1912.

Of course, the model has been wrong twice.  The first was 1960, and there has been speculation that abnormalities in Texas and Illinois gave that election to Kennedy.  The second was 2000 when Bush was given the win.  In both cases, there is an argument that cheating swung the results; so the Primary Model may have actually been right those two times too if we had seen the true results.

As for personal behavior, the parallel to the rallies just strikes me.  Throw away the polling data for a moment.  Look around at what people are actually doing (such as the Primary Model looking at actual, final vote results on the books).  I’m not saying which forecast reality is true; I’m saying don’t be so sure of what’s really going on.

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy … ing-states

Trump had no real opponent in the primaries.  Those people had no reason to vote, and they voted anyway.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

In the primaries, 18 million people voted for Trump, 454 thousand voted for Bill Weld. 35.7 million people voted in the Democratic primaries, 19 million of those votes for Biden, 9.6 million for Sanders, 2.8 million for Warren -- and I don't think it should be surprising that 18 million Trump supporters wanted to try to keep their unstable cult leader in place to curtail any effort from Republicans to replace him.

And it's true that Helmut Norpoth's Primary Model predicts Trump's 2020 victory and has only been 'wrong' twice since 1912, but Norpoth only started his model in 1996, so he has only ever used it in six actual elections predictively; his accuracy rate merely indicates that (a) he found a model that averaged out the results from 1912 to 1996 and (b) he was right five out of six times at predicting binary scenarios where his prediction had a 50-50 chance of being correct anyway. It's either a Democrat or Republican victory. Norpoth claims he's been predicting elections since 1912 (when he started 84 years later), so his model is inflated by 500 per cent. His model is closed to new information. And his model for predicting history may be superb, but for the future, he may as well be flipping a coin. His model isn't going to warp the laws of probability and reality.

Reality is that Trump's surprise victory in 2016 came after he'd closed the polling distance between him and Clinton to 2.7 points. That he was only a 3.3 per cent polling error from being ahead. That America disliked Hillary Clinton more than it disliked Donald Trump -- a distance Trump has since closed with his bullying persona and non-existent pandemic response and actively trying to get his own voters sick. Reality is that Trump is now in Clinton's situation; he's ahead in Republican strongholds like Texas, Iowa and Maine by a mere 3.1, 1.2 and 0.4 points respectively, a lead that's within the margin of error, tied with Biden in Georgia (!!) and Biden's leads in safe Democratic states is 183 Electoral College votes, 29 in likely Democratic states and 78 in lean Democratic states for a total of 290. Trump could win all 85 toss-up states and still be short of 270. Trump is losing.

At least, I think he is. Look, I'm not a pollster. I'm not even an American. I could be wrong.

And if I'm wrong, I will fly out to visit Temporal Flux when it's possible and buy him dinner at the Olive Garden. In addition, I will write a seventh installment of SLIDERS REBORN for EarthPrime.com. A script entitled "Redemption." Featuring Rembrandt confronting Colonel Rickman. A story which Transmodiar will be obligated to review, edit, comment on just when Transmodiar thought he was finally free of having to ever deal with SLIDERS REBORN again, possibly the most obnoxious and irritating creative project upon which he has ever been forced to labour (and he quit six times and kept coming back and lost two years of his life on it).

If Trump wins, Transmodiar will be forced to endure, at minimum, another four weeks of agonized exasperation over SLIDERS REBORN. He barely survived it in 2015 - 2016! He might end up in a mental ward this time!

And Temporal Flux will get all the pasta he can eat at Olive Garden after we've all been vaccinated.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

I don't buy the Primary Model.  I think, if anything, it's correlation.  Incumbents tend to win, and incumbents tend to run unopposed.  People running against incumbents tend to have wide open races.  If it's a race between no incumbents, I can buy the enthusiasm metric.

I'm not saying Trump can't win.  But 91% for Trump implies that TONS of people are lying about voting for Biden, and there's been no evidence of that.  And I think the hardest part about shy voters or lying voters is that there's been a stunning consistency to this race.  If you look at the national polls, it's been remarkably consistent since March.  If you look at the state polls, they're pretty consistent.

If they were polling the same exact group of people every time, then I could buy the lying argument.  But there are dozens of polls, all trying to poll different groups.  Conservative polls, liberal polls, independent polls, international polls.  Polls of likely voters, polls of registered voters, polls of all voters.  Polls in every state.  And in all those polls, it's Biden up by 3-15 points all along the way.

So yeah there could be a certain percentage of Trump voters that don't want to admit that they're going to vote Trump or are lying to screw with polls.  But for the results to be the same, that group of liars/shy people have to remain consistent regardless of the sample.  They can't randomly draw a group of people that is more likely to be shy or lie - otherwise the results would tip way in favor of Biden.  They can't find people who are less shy or less likely to lie, or it'd show Trump winning.

We aren't really seeing those polls.  Which tells me that there aren't that many people that are doing it because you'd expect to see those people show up in the polling unless it was *very* coordinated.

Trump can definitely win.  One thing that I'm seeing a lot of Trump people talk about is that percentages aren't a score.  Even if the Primary Model is right, Biden has a 9% chance to winning.  According to 538, Trump has a 13% chance of winning.  These aren't small odds.  People in casinos make those kinds of bets all the time.  I need an ace on the river!  I need the dealer to bust.  I need lucky 21!

Not likely.  But the unlikely happens all the time.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

I have to say -- while I do not subscribe to the Primary Model or the idea of silent Trump supporters, this has been absolutely fascinating because in looking up more on electoral modelling, I read a lot of informative articles. I can't pretend to understand all of it, but it was so interesting.

**

After the 2016 election, an economics professor built an election prediction model based on the Election Day weather in Bozeman, Broken Bow, Burlington, Caribou, Cody, Dover, Elkins, Fargo, and Pocatello that accurately 'predicted' every election between 1980 to 2016. As Professor Gary Smith explains: any 10 results can always be mathematically predicted perfectly by a model with nine imperfectly correlated explanatory values. That's not magic or prediction; that's a mathematician knowing the answers in advance.

Smith also notes that the Primary Model has actually been retrofitted repeatedly: prior to 1952, it used all presidential primaries. From there to 2004, it used only New Hampshire. After that, it added back South Carolina. The Primary Model can't be said to be infallible in its method if its method keeps changing. When a model is revised, Smith explains, it's because it predicted the past more accurately than it did the future.

There's another limited data model from Alan Lichtman whose 13 Keys Prediction predicted a Trump victory in 2016 and a Trump defeat in 2020 based on 13 true/false questions that has 'accurately' predicted eight elections. Professor Smith points out that Lichtman's model is utter BS as well because several of its true/false questions are largely vague to the point where the response could be subjectively true or false (Was there major policy change? Is the challenger charismatic?) and the 13 questions have been repeatedly revised, meaning it's another model that has had to be rewritten to fit the results and is hardly predicting them in advance.

Professor Gary Smith wrote:

If you wander through a garden making random choices every time you come to a fork in the road, your final destination will seem almost magical. What are the chances that you would come to this very spot? Yet you had to end up somewhere. If a model that correctly predicted your path had been specified before you started your walk, that would have been amazing. However, identifying your path after you finished your walk is distinctly not amazing. https://mindmatters.ai/2020/07/election … d-useless/

Professor Arturo, I think, would look at Norpoth and Lichtman and declare that both the Primary Model and the 13 Keys Prediction are stories from the same genre; they are fairy tales cloaked in the guise of mathematics, both operating on the magic of statistics; the magic is that you can make statistics mean whatever you decide they mean. Quinn would point out that no one ever failed to solve a mathematical mystery when they started with an answer and then created the question. Wade would say the future isn't written in our models, but in our choices and actions and we can't try to skip to end of the book. Rembrandt would say he doesn't understand anything we just said, but we gotta get our butts out there and vote and we also need to bring along all our friends.

1,543 (edited by Grizzlor 2020-10-15 21:09:42)

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

I feel like all of these "models" behave as if I were to say it's going to snow in Syracuse, NY, in the last week of January.  The other thing is, they ALL have been wrong on occasion.  This campaign features an incumbent well under water on favorability, approval, with independents, I could go on and on.  There's a pandemic, his approval on handling it is horrendous.  Have these models faced this kind of hurricane before?  There's no way, maybe during the Depression, which none of these models go back to usually.

PS: On tonight's town hall's, Trump mainly argued with the host, while Biden kind of gave run on answers.  I did think Biden hit on a number of good ones, such as Trump's use of the Justice Dept as his personal law firm.  Most notable from Trump's was his babbling refusal to disavow Q-Anon.

PS 2: I saw a clip from a debate tonight in Iowa, for the Senate seat.  Joni Ernst apparently doesn't know the current commodity prices on crops!!!  The Dem Theresa Greenfield got them correct.  This is Iowa after all.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

If you listen to Nate Silver talk about his model, he seems to go overboard in discussing the faults of the model itself and all of the systems that were put in place to make it as "fail-proof" as possible.  I've been listening to their politics podcast while I feed our baby, and I'm not sure which one it was...but the host asked him about how the model works.

He essentially said that if you look at the polls and trust that the polls are correct (that the data is correct, that people are giving honest-enough answers, that the sample and sample size are correct, etc) that Trump's chances are probably lower than the 13% chance that he's getting now.  The model anticipates that the race will tighten towards the end, and it anticipates that something could happen.  A vaccine could come out.  Biden could have a major gaffe or a negative October surprise.  Stuff like that.  The model is also trying to account for the idea that there could be voter suppression at historic levels, and/or that Trump could do things to "steal" the election.

But what's interesting to me is that he said that, even if Biden expanded his lead nationally and in key states, the model would almost never kick back a result much less than 5% for Trump.  Because he's admitting that the model will never be perfect enough to 100% predict no matter what the polls say.  I find that interesting.

****************

I didn't watch either town hall.  I can't imagine that such a format helped either candidate.  I'm sure Trump got more viewers and will brag about it, but it won't matter.  The viewers were either his devoted base or people watching the car wreck.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

All this back and forth is pointless because the bottom line - securing fundraising dollars for the national party - is what's at stake. The Democrats don't care if they win the presidency (as evidenced by their uninspired nominee); they care about the $380 million they raised in donations in the past month and appealing to the self-righteous who think bringing back "The West Wing" to help Michele Obama is woke. The Republicans don't care about winning the presidency; they've locked down the Supreme Court, districting, and local and state politics (and they're fundraising, too). And they'll probably hold onto Congress as well.

Kamala Harris is on the ticket because she is who the big donors wanted. It's not a testament to her skill or how many diversity boxes she checks; she's backed by the money. Period. At the end of the day, anyone who thinks this isn't a long con to squeeze money from people who can't afford it to pad the wallets of people who don't care about them is a sucker.

The parties were genius for opening things up to popular vote in the primaries. Why have backroom dealings when you can give people the illusion of choice?

Earth Prime | The Definitive Source for Sliders™

1,546 (edited by ireactions 2020-10-16 18:14:47)

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

On Transmodiar's Thoughts:
That's an interesting perspective and it has much validity. Fundraising is vital to the Democratic National Convention and the Democratic Party. But I'm not sure why it wouldn't be. Without money, the party has no resources to acquire political power.

Joe Biden is not the progressive white knight many people wanted. But the Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warrens and Andrew Yangs of the world never draw the turnout needed to win them the White House. Bernie got 9 million votes in the primaries, Warren got 2.8 million and Andrew Yang got 160,231. Andrew Yang is a genius. But with 160,231 votes, Andrew Yang does not have enough voters to lead a majoritarian party.

With 160,231 votes, Andrew Yang is leading an ideological cult of strong talking points that is utterly devoid of political power and also without any money to fund their wishes. Without power and without money, the Democratic Party cannot do anything for anybody. Joe Biden, despite his uninspiring bromides, is someone that progessives, centrists and non-Trumpist conservatives can (to my astonishment) apparently tolerate. So be it.

This is not the first time you have declared that the presidency doesn't matter and that the race doesn't matter and issued your expectations of the future. Now, I don't expect you to be able to defend or uphold an opinion given four years ago nor would I find fault with you for not being precognitive.

But your worldview — which should not be discounted — has proven ill-matched to the moment. Your expectations of President Trump's America have proven wrong across the board. The United States under Trump has been unable to manage any kind of crisis whatsoever. Government has not been unable to run itself. A crazy reality show star who spent most of his life living in a blue state was not less crazy when running into the White House from enthusiasm fostered in red states and did not tone down his catastrophic, random, egotistical savagery. A demented bully did not stop himself from actively trying to kill people up to and including his own voters to satisfy his need for crowds and attention. And a desperate, terrified sham of a world leader who is running scared from 500 million in debt to foreign powers and tax evasion charges was not a "master showman" who could "run rings around Joe Biden."

A worldview should not be dismissed just because the opinion doesn't lead to psychic ability. It doesn't make your concerns unworthy of concern. I admire that you see through what you call static and observe the cycles of money and power. But I don't think what you're dismissing as static is as irrelevant as you claim given the obvious and immediate results the US Presidency and this moron in that role has had on everyone's day to day lives. Your suspicion for Democrat candidates and Democrats pursuing money is something we should all take part in every day. We should all follow the money. But I don't think we should see it as the only story.

I am sorry that Andrew Yang only got 160,231 votes. Andrew Yang is sorry he only got 160,231 votes. But he's not disengaging and dismissing the world with contempt and disdain. He is doing his part.

On the Primary Model and Campaign Finance:
You know, I think we should all be very interested in (a) how money is a factor in these campaigns and (b) how primaries reflect the ground level enthusiasm of the electorate. I don't think we should be evaluating the world or even just the election on ONLY fundraising or ONLY primary participation. I definitely don't think we should be trusting mathematical models based on these factors. But we also shouldn't pretend they are not highly relevant to the state of our planet.

On Trump's Town Hall:
Just watched Trump's entire town hall. God, what a lunatic. A pathetic, whining child incensed that a female reporter would ask him follow up questions and ask him to deny that the Democratic Party is a Satanist conspiracy. A fool saying that people shouldn't  wear masks because his personal manservants seem uncomfortable in them. A liar insisting that ballot fraud exists because it threatens his status. Completely unsuited to public service of any kind. He couldn't / wouldn't even specify if he were tested for COVID-19 before the first debate with Biden.

His contempt and indifference to the town hall participants asking him questions was palpable as he boasted that everything he did was "tremendous." It's clear he sees his job as sitting in his bedroom tweeting about all the work he isn't actually doing. That the presidency is an ivory tower of luxury he doesn't want to leave. This person couldn't run a cash register at a gas station. I think it might be time to end debates and just have reporters hammer at candidates relentlessly.

In terms of viewers: Trump's town hall got 13.5 million viewers. Biden got 14.1 million. If we need to pick a winner, it was Biden (by 4.25 per cent).

Anyway. From Biden's town hall:

Biden On Packing the Supreme Court

Joe Biden wrote:

I have not been a fan of pack -- court packing, because I think it just generates what will happen every -- whoever wins, it just keeps moving in a way that is inconsistent with what is going to be manageable... Well, I'm not a fan. I would then say, it depends on how this turns out, not how he wins, but how it's handled, how it's handled. But there's a number of things that are going to be coming up, and there's going to be a lot of discussion about other alternatives as well. I'm open to considering what happens from that point on.

Biden On What He Does if He Loses:

Joe Biden wrote:

Well, it could say that I'm a lousy candidate, and I didn't do a good job. But I think -- I hope...  that it doesn't say that we are as racially, ethnically, and religiously at odds with one another as it appears the President wants us to be. Usually, you know, the President, in my view, with all due respect, it's been divide and conquer, the way he does better if he splits us and where there's division.

I will go back to being a professor at the University of Pennsylvania and making the case that I have been -- made and at the Biden Institute at the University of Delaware, focusing on -- on these same issues relating to what constitutes decency and honor in this country.

If I get elected, you know, I'm going to be -- I'm running as a proud Democrat, but I'm going to be an American president. I'm going to take care of those that voted against me as well as those who voted for me, for real. That's what presidents do. We've got to heal this nation, because we have the greatest opportunity of any country in the world to own the 21st century. And we can't do it divided.

Biden gave an empathetic, polished, gaffe-free performance. Full transcript here: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics … r-BB1a4RLG

Joe Biden wrote:

In politics, grudges don't work. They're not -- they make no sense. I really mean it. I have never-- and the second point I'd make is, everybody talks about "Yeah, Joe, when you were a senator and a chairman of Foreign Relations or chairman of the Judiciary, you got a lot of things done. You were able to cross the aisle. Well, the days have changed, and when you were vice president you got a lot done. But it can't happen any more."

It can. We've got to change the nature of the way we deal with one another. You don't question other men and women's motives. You can question their judgment, but not their motive.

Well, we badly need an infrastructure bill. Well, what happens? I stand up and I say, "You know, we need an infrastructure bill, Senator. But I'll tell you what, you're in the pocket of the cement industry. But let's see what we can do." We can't get anywhere, and nothing happens. Nothing happens. I learned that lesson a long time ago. I've never even -- when it's obvious on its face what the motive is. Stick to the subject. And listen to the other guy. Listen.

And with Trump out of the way, the vindictiveness of a president going after Republicans who don't do exactly what he says gets -- gets taken away. There's going to be -- I promise you-- between four and eight Republican senators who are willing -- they're going to be willing to move on things where they're bipartisan consensus.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

You know, there's another aspect to the election that is a bit underserved on this forum -- privilege. Since most of us have the time to chatter on an internet message board, it's likely that most of us have that kind of free time. In addition, most of us here are men, heterosexual, Caucasian or a model minority -- we are of genders and races unharmed by a Trump presidency, a presidency that has legitimized white supremacists, homophobia, transphobia, sexual harassers, and blatantly encouraged modern neo-Nazi militia movements.

When we declare that a Trump presidency doesn't matter to us or that a Trump presidency won't make America worse than it already is or that a Trump presidency wouldn't be any worse than a Biden presidency or that removing Trump from office wouldn't improve America, we are (unintentionally) declaring that it's fine for the presidential platform to overtly, blatantly and repeatedly boost and embolden hate groups that are paramilitarized against women, people of colour, homosexuals, transgenders -- and anyone who isn't a straight-white man.

I agree that we need to spend more time thinking about how voter participation in primaries is an indicator of enthusiasm in the electorate and that it's an important factor to bear in mind. And that we need to always consider how the Democrats' focus and victories in recent years have been in terms of fundraising rather than policy or political power. I would like to add this other area of consideration -- how the power of the US Presidency affects people who are not in positions of privilege due to their race and gender. And it’s to be considered. I wouldn't make it the only factor to weigh in the state of the world.

Also, a lot of us are prone to issuing predictions and expectations that don't come true because none of us have precognitive abilities. Some of us declared that a Trump presidency was not a big deal and that the presidency was not a powerful position hemmed in by checks and balances, some of us said Trump wasn't really a racist or a white supremacist and that government was too efficient to fail even with an ineffectual president. My personal predictions were that Biden was senile, incapable of mounting an effective campaign, devoid of the progressivism to inspire voters, helpless against Trump's charisma, prone to bizarre outbursts, devoid of any actual policies or ideas for how to face climate change, police corruption, racism, recession, pandemics -- and I have been proven wrong repeatedly.

At various moments, I have felt that because Democrats aren't running on my preferred terms, they don't care about winning; that because the election isn't operating on my parameters, it is a waste of time. But ultimately, that's just me feeling spiteful and the reality is, my imagined 'model' was, like the Primary Model and the 13 Keys Prediction, based on too few factors and not sufficiently open to new data.

1,548

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EkpgNBgUUAAPOb8?format=jpg&name=small

Carson City, NV Trump rally today.  Totally insane.  We need this election to END already before he's infected the whole country.

1,549 (edited by Slider_Quinn21 2020-10-18 18:58:23)

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

And I don't see the point.  These are all people who are going to vote for him no matter what.  The *only* possible outcome is that people get sick at these events and then can't vote.  There's no way an undecided voter is going to go to one of these events.  I just don't see the point.

(And of course the point is to stroke Trump's ego.  But the rest of the family wants him to win, right?)

1,550

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

It's all about his ego, yes, he needs to be given his daily affirmation of worth.  He's THAT insecure.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Yeah, but he's also manipulatable, especially by Ivanka.  He's down huge and he's spending all of his time with events that garner him zero new voters.  The entire family's future depends on Donald winning, and no one has considered that these events are a giant waste of time?

1,552

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

http://politicaliq.com/2020/10/19/never … the-polls/

Scott Rasmussen finds 4% of the electorate is likely to be Never Trumpers supporting Biden, a percentage which reversed would result in a tie.  Further evidence that Biden's center-left "I'm Trump's opposite" strategy, that has cost him some on the fringe of the African-American/Latino vote, has picked up more than enough white college, seniors, women to win this.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Trump now threatening to not do the final debate.  Which leads me to believe that Trump either has no idea that he's losing or just refuses to believe it.  Underdogs need debates

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Politico notes that a Trump victory is still possible. Voter suppression could work. Swing state polls could be off and results could be close enough to be contestable. It's possible for Trump to win much in the same way it's possible NBCUniversal will order Season 6 of SLIDERS -- in that such an occurrence is not likely but would not violate the laws of space and time and the restrictions of the natural world or the binds of gravity and energy.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/1 … ion-430013

1,555

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

He called Dr. Fauci an "Idiot" today, while his few remaining Congressional surrogates plead with Bill Barr to investigate this Russian/Giuliani dirt on the Bidens.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

I don't see how going to war with Fauci helps him in *any* way.  Isn't Fauci, while unpopular with MAGAs, mostly popular?

1,557

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Slider_Quinn21 wrote:

I don't see how going to war with Fauci helps him in *any* way.  Isn't Fauci, while unpopular with MAGAs, mostly popular?

Fauci is trusted by a majority of Republicans.  Trump has nothing left, he's just going to scream at his base to come and vote no matter what.  I was in the Ford dealer today waiting for a recall repair, they had Fox News on the TV.  Good Gracious, pure insanity.  Forget the bull they babble about on air, which was literally 90% Hunter Biden, the commercials!!!  There's a Trump approved ad where Anderson Cooper asks Biden about gun regulations, followed by the narrator warning that guns will be taken away (something neither Anderson nor Joe says) and then they cut to a clip of Biden saying BINGO.  I mean, this is fourth grade stuff, that would be seen as hilarious if it weren't so insane.  It's Ross J. Kelly stuff.

1,558 (edited by Transmodiar 2020-10-20 15:21:15)

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

I just want to be crystal clear on something: Trump is a boob. I am not voting for him and I do not support him.

That said, I disagree that my comments are "ill-matched to the moment." From my perspective, I have three choices next month:

  • I can vote for Trump.

  • I can vote for Biden.

  • I can vote for someone I ideologically align with.

Under the second term of a Trump presidency, the United States could very well implode. A Trump presidency could also be the wakeup call the Democratic Party needs to understand that the country rejects its policies and compromise candidates, and that it offers nothing to the overall health of the country as a whole.

Under a Biden presidency, the United Staes could very well "heal". Alternatively, it could also fracture further as all of the smug, entitled shitheads that permeate the Democratic Party see this as confirmation of their agenda and not a refutation of Trump's policies. (That will really calm down the alt-right turds propping up Trump.) It empowers hypocrites like Pelosi to continue their own sad business-as-usual nonsense for four years, and it destroys the chances a real progressive candidate will run on the Democrat ticket in 2024.

I'm not interested in civil war. I'm also not interested in status quo. We desperately need something to happen to move the needle on our national discourse. Biden won't do that.

Trump's behavior doesn't matter. His inability to lead in crisis or act like a sane adult does not matter. The hand-wringing on display by all of the various Democratic leadership does not matter. At the end of the day, it is ALL theater.

  • Republicans fight dirty. They recognize that's what you need to do in politics. Is it ethical? Of course not. But there's no one out there to call them on their BS and fight back. The opposition party just silently adopts their tactics until the Republicans dream up new ways to shaft the system

  • Democrats love the righteous indignation. It makes them money. It also makes them feel better about themselves because they can't point to Trump's failures and say, "hey, that's not us!" Except when it is, like when they prop up bad bills, or give up Scalia's seat on the Supreme Court because they figured RBG's replacement would come under a Clinton administration, or when people like Biden ram shitty legislation through Congress for decades and just ignore it ever happened during an election cycle.

  • The parties benefit from the chaos. This isn't the goddamn "West Wing" - the parties aren't staffed up with noble political warriors who will do what's right when the time comes. They're filled with self-serving assholes who love it when the masses focus on stupid partisan issues.

I refuse to vote for the lesser of two evils. If that means Rome burns, so be it. As you mentioned further up in this thread, my station in life hasn't been impacted by Trump and his mind-boggling policies/actions. I still have a job, I still have a home. But I would gladly give up some of that safety if it meant this nation moved toward something that ensured basic freedoms for people. For a nation that gave one iota of a shit for the vast majority of people that are not comfortable. The federal government is not designed to care. It is designed to insulate the wealthy from everyone else. It's worked in that respect for a long time. It needs to change. That is very much of this moment.

Earth Prime | The Definitive Source for Sliders™

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Transmodiar wrote:

Under the second term of a Trump presidency, the United States could very well implode. A Trump presidency could also be the wakeup call the Democratic Party needs to understand that the country rejects its policies and compromise candidates, and that it offers nothing to the overall health of the country as a whole.

[...]

I refuse to vote for the lesser of two evils. If that means Rome burns, so be it. As you mentioned further up in this thread, my station in life hasn't been impacted by Trump and his mind-boggling policies/actions. I still have a job, I still have a home. But I would gladly give up some of that safety if it meant this nation moved toward something that ensured basic freedoms for people. For a nation that gave one iota of a shit for the vast majority of people that are not comfortable.

Did Trump's first term move America towards ensuring basic freedoms or caring for people who are not comfortable? Has this been a winning strategy?

I don't mean that as a rebuke of you, of course. And I'm not going to tell you who to vote for. Ultimately, whether I agree with you or not, I appreciate the fact that your views are yours and not merely parroted from your cult leader and that you don't have a leader.

In my view, if the Trump presidency was to be a wakeup, his first term has awakened anyone it's going to.

Speaking for myself and not as an instruction to anyone else -- I've voted for the Canadian versions of Andrew Yang when possible, but at times, I've had to vote for the opponent I'd prefer to have rather than the person who represented my values. If you disagree with this, then I respect it.

Transmodiar wrote:

The federal government is not designed to care. It is designed to insulate the wealthy from everyone else.

I would agree with this.

Transmodiar wrote:
  • Democrats love the righteous indignation. It makes them money. It also makes them feel better about themselves because they can't point to Trump's failures and say, "hey, that's not us!" Except when it is, like when they prop up bad bills, or give up Scalia's seat on the Supreme Court because they figured RBG's replacement would come under a Clinton administration, or when people like Biden ram shitty legislation through Congress for decades and just ignore it ever happened during an election cycle.

  • The parties benefit from the chaos. This isn't the goddamn "West Wing" - the parties aren't staffed up with noble political warriors who will do what's right when the time comes. They're filled with self-serving assholes who love it when the masses focus on stupid partisan issues.

I think if the Democrats aren't running on righteous indignation and handwringing, they might as well not be running. The purpose of a political party is to acquire political power. Without outrage at Republicans, Democrats can't acquire money. Without money, they can't acquire power. Without power, progressives will progress nowhere. But I understand that you find the entire contest beneath contempt and that you will vote with your conscience and I wouldn't have you do otherwise.

**

Trump's narcissism is such that he loathes Anthony Fauci for being liked and trusted where he is not and Trump simply cannot stop himself from voicing that outrage that he isn't getting the attention he craves. That's why he holds his rallies and doesn't care if his supporters get sick before they ever vote.

**

Trump could use Amy Coney Barrett in the Supreme Court to steal Pennsylvania.
https://www.vox.com/2020/10/19/21524177 … ey-barrett

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

The Trump campaign received hacked texts between Joe Biden and his son, Hunter, who struggled for many years with addiction. The Trump campaign released them through the New York Post, trying to embarrass Biden and damage his candidacy with what I suppose they thought were embarrassing family revelations as Biden was reaching out to Hunter while Hunter was in rehab.

Joe Biden wrote:

Good morning my beautiful son. I miss you and love you. Dad.

Hunter responds referring to a column by Maureen Dowd in The New York Times describing his life unflatteringly. And and how his ex-girlfriend, Hallie, sent him an angry message.

Hunter Biden wrote:

Oh... good morning ... from fucking rehab.

Don you see what just happened. Your team just made me the uncontrollable tax cheat lphilanderer sex and drug addict that you tried so hard to fix but couldn't yt

They just totally wrote my life away

And if you try and say otherwise ill have a hard time understating hownyou rationalize this shit.

for fucks sake, hallie for the first time I. 17 days talks to me to say im an embarrassment
To MY family

You think she doesn't feel comfortabl;e saying that knowing there is no price to pay

No one pays any price
Well dad the truth is as you and hallie point out -- i am a fucked up addict that can't be truseted
Trusted relied upon nor defended
if you dont run i'll never have a chance at redemption

Biden responds:

Joe Biden wrote:

I'll run but I need you.

H is wrong.

Only focus is recovery
Nothing else
Your girls are so smart truly amazing very focused
When you can and feel like it call

Hunter responds:

Hunter Biden wrote:

Ok

Joe Biden later writes:

Joe Biden wrote:

Please let me know where you are
Can I come see you
need to talk about 2020 announcement and what you think
I love you
Dad

Wow. What a scandal! Joe Biden's son was detoxing, in rehab, being humiliated in the press, being verbally assailed by his ex and Biden wrote to his son with words of encouragement and love and patience. And the Trump campaign got these hacked texts and decided to leak them thinking it would somehow reflect poorly on Joe Biden.

There is something fundamentally wrong with Donald Trump and the people with whom he surrounds himself. They view these messages as damaging. They see Hunter's addiction and Biden's response to it as weakness. They consider these exposures harmful. They see these communications as father and son as something that would somehow harm their reputations. They find fault with Biden's unwavering support of his wayward son; they think it laughable that Biden would embrace a self-confessed liability to Biden's political career; they see Biden's love and compassion for his offspring as a failure to be identified and shamed. Trump and his ilk are a twisted catastrophe of failed humanity.

In addition, the leaked emails supposedly have messages claiming that Hunter set up a meeting between Biden and a Ukrainian energy company executive, a firm that also hired Hunter in an attempt to exert influence over Biden to prevent investigations into their corruption. The Biden campaign denies there was any such meeting. Could they be lying? Sure! But history's pretty clear that Biden demanded the firing of a lackadaisically corrupt state prosecutor, Viktor Shokin, and the prosecutor general of Ukraine subsequently conducted 15 investigations into Burisma for conspiracy and tax evasion, so claiming Burisma had any influence over Joe Biden is nonsensical.

Great October surprise there, Mr. President. You revealed that Joe Biden is a great father.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Why were texts stored on a laptop hard drive?

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

They weren't. Russian hackers have been feeding Rudy Giuliani intel; they hacked Hunter Biden's phone and took screenshots. Giuliani's story is that all this 'damaging' material was left on three laptops that Hunter Biden supposedly left with a computer repair service and that he never retrieved his hardware or paid for the repairs and the repairman delivered the drives to the FBI and sent a copy to Giuliani. The repairman first claims he didn't know who Hunter Biden was, but when asked why he didn't just wipe the laptops and resell them but instead contacted the FBI, he then claimed that Biden identified himself. When asked how he was connected to Giuliani, the repairman refused to explain. When asked why he felt compelled to contact the FBI, he said they had contacted him.

It's a feint to obscure that Russian hackers sent the material to Giuliani who contrived this air tight cover story and thought texts of Joe Biden comforting his son would somehow destroy the Biden candidacy for reasons of something or other. Because people habitually take screenshots of their smartphone text messages to store them on their laptops. I don't think Giuliani understands how texting works.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

The Hunter Biden stuff is so stupid.  Even if Hunter Biden is a pedophile serial killer, it has nothing to do with Joe Biden's ability to be president.  No one cares, and the polls show that no one cares.

I get where Transmodiar is coming from.  I voted for Biden already.  I believed that Trump could be a wakeup call, but it didn't work.   And if you have any interest in Mayor Pete or Andrew Yang or AOC for president, all roads go through Joe Biden.  He's not the president we need right now, but I think he'll do.  If the Democrats get control of the Senate, we could see a lot of progressive work.  If Yang or Mayor Pete wants to be president, they can get good experience.  It isn't the perfect path, but it's damn sure the better path.

*****

Amy Barrett.  Listen, I think she's definitely too political for the Supreme Court, but she's a judge.  I think she'll take her job seriously.  And I think, from what I saw, she legitimately doesn't want to be Trump's stooge.  So I'm surprised that so many people think she'd blindly vote for whatever the president wants her to do.  As soon as she's on the court, she doesn't own Trump any more favors.  She's there for life.  She owes that to him, but she could easily rationalize that she earned it more than he gave it to her.

And if the court is brought a flimsy case, whether there are 3 Republicans, 6 Republicans, or 9 Republicans, it'll get shot down.  Trump needs a ton of help to steal the election, and it doesn't look like he has a lot of friends right now.  And I don't think "Come on, Amy!  Throw out the votes that make me not win" is going to convince 5 justices to vote with Trump.

1,564 (edited by ireactions 2020-10-21 14:05:29)

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Transmodiar's view is that Trump is a wakeup call. I gave it a chance. Quinn Mallory gave it a chance.

Quinn Mallory wrote:

Our civilization's been designed to extract resources for the benefit of a few at the expense of the rest, and that's the case whether the figurehead for that system's a career politician or a reality show star.

This country's pretended for too long that racism's in the past -- or that crumbling infrastructure and rampant poverty can be ignored -- or that politicians can call themselves Democrats when they only serve corporations.

Administrations come and go. One status quo's been replaced with another, the only difference being the previous one paid lip service to civil liberties and environmental issues while the new one won't pretend to try. But our work here continues.

I think it worked to a degree. The pandemic has also revealed the massive social and economical inequalities in our society. And I think that is as much of a wakeup as there is to be found with this tactic and it's time to find another strategy.

But if Transmodiar wants to vote for Andrew Yang (who is not running), that is entirely up to him. It's his vote. No one should ever be cajoled or coerced into voting against what they feel to be right. This is America we're talking about here. Votes are earned and Transmodiar can decide whether or not Joe Biden earned his vote.

**

I hope you're right about Coney Barrett -- but the truth is that four of the current eight judges voted to throw out any mail-in ballots received a minute after the election day deadline. The stalemate meant that the previous ruling -- a three day extension on the deadline -- was upheld.

When Coney Barrett is confirmed, the four conservative-voting judges will have five among their number to overturn the previous ruling.

In addition, Coney Barrett has proven to be driven not by jurisprudence but by power. Any prospective Supreme Court judge with the vaguest sense of right and wrong would have refused to participate in a superspreader event at the White House. But she went along with it because she wants that seat; she wants power; and the fact that people would get sick and die in the process was fine by her which means she'll be in favour of voting to throw out any ballots for Joe Biden by any technicalities possible to maintain her power on the Court -- a power that would be diminished if Biden were to win the White House and the Democrats were to win the Senate and potentially pack the court with left-leaning judges to remove the five to four advantage.

Now, maybe she'll prove me wrong the way Joe Biden and John Roberts have regularly proven me wrong. Roberts, despite his conservative leanings, has regularly voted with liberal judges to maintain the supposed impartiality of the Supreme Court. Perhaps Coney Barrett will be of a similar mindset. But I'm personally not counting on it; Trump already has four judges who will rule in favour of nearly anything he wants and he's about to have five.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

ireactions wrote:

I hope you're right about Coney Barrett -- but the truth is that four of the current eight judges voted to throw out any mail-in ballots received a minute after the election day deadline. The stalemate meant that the previous ruling -- a three day extension on the deadline -- was upheld.

When Coney Barrett is confirmed, the four conservative-voting judges will have five among their number to overturn the previous ruling.

Very true.  But I think you have to remember a couple of things.

1. These guys aren't Lindsey Graham or Ted Cruz.  Their jobs are secure.  They can vote however they want, and they don't have to worry about it.  Barrett knows that she's only getting on the bench through nefarious ways, but once she's on, she's on.  Not only has Roberts surprised but even Brett Kavanaugh has surprised (the thought is that he's now the median opinion).

2. I'm not talking about the Supreme Court throwing out illegitimate votes.  I think there's probably some legitimacy to the argument that votes that are received after the election might have less constitutional weight.  So I think there's a judicial argument to be made.  And if I were a Pennsylvania Democrat, I'd be making sure there there's no way that my ballot gets received later than Election Day.

What I'm referring to is Trump literally trying to cheat and trying to get the court to uphold his shenanigans.  Either getting a legislature to throw out all the votes and name him the winner or throwing out *legitimate votes* just because they were going to give Biden the election.  People are worried that just because Trump has the court, they'll always vote in his favor no matter what.  And I don't believe that all five of the "Trump votes" are that crooked.  Maybe ACB is.  Maybe Gorsuch is.  But it doesn't seem like Kavanaugh is, and I think/hope the rest of them take their jobs seriously enough not to let Trump get away with something that is clearly both unconstitutional and illegal.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Giuliani apparently got fooled by Sasha Baron Cohen, and appears to be jacking off to an actress posing as a Russian reporter in a hotel room.  Evidently it's part of the new Borat movie.  LOL!

The Hunter Biden stuff is just plain disgusting.  It's also pointless, because who the hell is really going to care?  Voters want to hear about real policies and not tabloid crap.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Grizzlor wrote:

The Hunter Biden stuff is just plain disgusting.  It's also pointless, because who the hell is really going to care?  Voters want to hear about real policies and not tabloid crap.

Like everything else, it is to play to Trump's base.  It doesn't get new voters.  It has nothing to do with Joe so it's just noise.

The FBI just tried to make some sort of election announcement - some sort of "Iran and Russia are trying to hurt the President" statement.  If that's their version of the Comey letter...good luck.

I'm officially just ready for it to be over.  If the polls are even in the right ballpark, Biden will win...maybe without even worrying about the states that count ballots late.  The race seems to be somewhat tightening nationally, but Biden got some good state polls today.  Up in Iowa, tied in Texas.  If Trump is forced to use any of his waning campaign war chest on either of these states, it's over.

If the polls are very wrong.....well, I don't even want to consider that.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Well, there is this.  If you were the candidate betting on yourself....

https://www.mediaite.com/trump/trump-re … advantage/

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

The Trump campaign is down to about 60 million against Biden having around 177 million. Trump has repeatedly taken campaign funds for his own use, as have his employees, leaving the campaign itself starved of funds and resources. That's why his TV ad buys have been so scarce. Trump has pondered writing his own campaign tens of millions, but his tax returns indicate he is extremely cash poor and I wouldn't be surprised if he had to borrow the $8,000 that he donated to his own campaign.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

And that's why I actually feel sorry for a lot of MAGA people.  I'm not talking about the obviously racist or the white supremacists or any of those assholes.  I'm talking about poor white grandmas who fell for Russian propaganda and legitimately think that the nation will win if Trump doesn't win - and then donate their last $50 to the Trump campaign.  I feel like there should be thousands of lawsuits - if I donated to the Trump campaign and he used it for non-campaign purposes, I'd be pissed.

I'm naive and I'm trying to be optimistic, and I just don't believe that 40% of my fellow Americans love this guy for nefarious purposes.  Selfish economic reasons?  Sure.  Strictly political "I've never voted Democrat in my life and I won't now" reasons?  Okay.  Even "one of the most powerful countries in the world spending all their time coming up with realistic-ish propaganda tricked me" reasons are somewhat okay.  Or even "guns are my favorite thing in the whole world" or "literally nothing in this world is more evil than abortion" people. 

But "Trump is the best" or "this guy represents me!" or people like that - I hope those are just loud people on social media.

**********

FiveThirtyEight's model seems to have stalled at around 87-88% for Biden.  It's gone up and down the last couple days without any significant movement.  I think that's pretty much where we are.  If Florida goes to Biden, it's almost certainly Biden.  If Florida goes to Trump, the door opens up.  It's still a long road (even if Trump wins Florida, but Biden gets Arizona and North Carolina, Trump has very little shot), but if Biden can just get Florida on Election night, Biden essentially has it locked up no matter what else happens.

I'd love for Biden to get my home state and he just had a poll where he's tied, but I just don't think it happens this year despite record voting here.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Or even "guns are my favorite thing in the whole world" or "literally nothing in this world is more evil than abortion" people

Every Trump voter I know falls into one of these categories

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

pilight wrote:

Every Trump voter I know falls into one of these categories

And I think that's okay.  I disagree with them, but I think they're at least coming at it from a place that can be negotiated with.  Someone that loves guns and doesn't want their guns taken away can work with everyone else.  Most hardcore gun owners are okay with reasonable restrictions that don't take away *their* guns (of course there are exceptions).  Most hardcore abortion people might be less willing to negotiate, but at least them come from a place that I can understand (no one is pro-abortion).

And I think both of these groups (if they're truly single-issue voters) only support Trump because he represents their side.  If the party flowed to a more traditional Republican, they'd stay with at least a similar level of support.  Trump is a means to an end, not a hero or an idol.

I can work with that going forward.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

As I have stated many times, this election for me is not about policy at all.  I've said many times, I would HATE Mike Pence's policies, but I would take him any day of the week over this psychopath.  This election is beyond character, it's a question of whether the President is unfit.  To me he is not even close to fit, and as many joked, a tomato can, toilet, dog, cat, bird, snake, Atari 2600, yesterday's meatloaf, etc., would be fitter.  I simply disagree with ANY rationale behind voting FOR this guy, to me they simply don't exist.  You cannot rationalize having something insane continue in this role. 

On TF's joke, I read that Trump's own legal team donated 5-figures to Biden, FIFTY BUCKS to Donald.  Ha ha ha! 

On the polling front, I saw that the Dem challenger to Mark Meadow's old house seat in NC is now ahead.  A highly ominous sign for GOP/Trump there.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

The debate was actually fairly watchable last night.  Very cool that, win or lose, it's the last Trump debate I'll ever have to sit through.

Republican polls seem to be getting a bit more daring - one poll had Trump up 4 in Michigan when no other poll has Biden up less than four.  Most don't even have Biden leading by less than eight.  Biden is winning essentially every swing state according to every reputable poll.  All that's left is knowing whether or not the polls were wrong.  But they'd have to be very wrong in a lot of places.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

https://img.techpowerup.org/201024/e8dd9797-6a9b-4d48-9b91-4fdf6dd01bff.png

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Haha!

**

The watchability of the debate was actually quite disturbing. Trump affected a lower volume, his voice lower and calmer and marked only by his aggrieved whininess -- even as he was describing his wife and son being infected by a deadly virus, insisting that a virus that's killed over 200,000 people and will hit 400,000 by the end of the year is almost over, that a vaccine that isn't two weeks away is two weeks away (he's running out of two week periods) -- Trump is sociopathically, inhumanly disengaged from all the death, the lost jobs, the crushed lives, the people who've lost friends, family, children, grandparents -- and he's more interested in phony conspiracies and complaining about his bruised ego than his dying people.

You know, I have some time for Transmodiar saying that the first four years of this was a vital civics lesson because it was. Government doesn't run itself. Freedoms not defended are freedoms lost. Elected officials who don't operate within rules and norms effectively destroy those rules and norms. Checks and balances don't exist if they're not enforced.

But the idea that the first four years were not sufficiently educational and another four years would be even better -- that is as dumb as than that stupid SLIDERS REBORN script where Quinn meets Mallory. You can't do the same thing again and expect different results.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

On Twitter, SUPERNATURAL creator Eric Kripke wrote:

Eric Kripke wrote:

Okay, look. If you're in a midwest state (I'm proudly from Toledo, Ohio) and a fan of SUPERNATURAL, know this: I created Sam & Dean, so I know that they'd vote for Joe Biden. For whatever that's worth. To be fair, Dean paused a second, cause Trump banged a porn star and y'know, life goals, but Sam brought him to his senses. Then they went for pie.

After some fan response, Kripe followed up with:

Eric Kripke wrote:

A rewrite based on your notes (I missed you guys!) Dean didn't care that Trump banged a pornstar, cause Trump treated her like shit, like he treats everyone & everything. Plus Dean slept with his fave pornstar. But he still loves Casa Erotica: Cabana Nights.

Mischa Collins pointed out:

Mischa Collins wrote:

Hey, Eric, I know you haven’t worked on the show for a while, but technically, Sam and Dean have been fugitives or legally dead since Season 3. Either way, if they vote, it'd be fraud. (But they fight for the forces of good, so Joe Biden would be on their side.)

https://bleedingcool.com/tv/supernatura … one-thing/

Somewhere out there, a certain alt-right Men's Rights Activist Trumpist SUPERNATURAL fan is wailing and shrieking and crying.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

ROFL at the DS9 reference!

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Very ready for this election to be over.  Both campaigns are spreading a decent amount of misinformation, and there's good and bad polls painting a very contradicting picture.

- Contradicting stories about voter enthusiasm in Pennsylvania. The New York Times reported that voting is way down for Biden in Pennsylvania.  District polling seems to say this is wrong, and it could either be campaign leaks a) by the Biden campaign to make sure voters show up or b) the Trump campaign to energize their efforts there.  Obama went there last week which, depending on your source tells us, a) that the campaign sent their biggest gun to salvage the situation or b) the Biden campaign knows its in the bag and Obama was more of a closer

- Strange polling in Michigan.  Trafalgar is a garbage poll for a lot of reasons, but they did do a good job of finding hidden Trump voters in 2016.  Major polls closed a lot of these gaps with their sampling, but Trafalgar claims that they haven't done enough.  Biden leads big in Michigan in every poll except right-leaning ones.  Is Trafalgar still finding hidden voters, or are they grasping at straws like they did in 2018?

- Voter registration issues in Wisconsin - are more Republicans registered and voting early in Wisconsin?  It'd be a strange statistical anomaly if that was happening (when the opposite is true almost everywhere else), but the midwest is trending red.

- Texas, North Carolina, Georgia - Biden is either tied or pulling away according to the polling, but all are very-much in the margin of error.  Biden is going to visit Georgia and Kamala Texas.  Are these real possibilities that point to a Biden landslide?  Or are they wasting time and effort in places they don't need to be wasting either?

All the science and common sense show that Biden has this in the bag.  Polls look good on both a national and a state level.  The Biden campaign is acting more aggressively than defensively (implying they're going after battleground states they think they can win and not salvaging states they don't think they can win).  Trump's campaign is no help in figuring it out because it's impossible to tell what he's doing.  But Trump could have a weird effect on the polls because he's so controversial.  Not to even mention shenanigans he might try and pull off.

I'm just ready for it to be over.  A week from tomorrow.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

https://trends.google.com/trends/explor … 0my%20vote

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

I saw that.  A lot of people put stock into google searches, but I don't know how much I do.  I ask google a lot of stupid things that I don't usually plan on following up on.  Some of the more fun things to do is search google and see what comes up.  And it might be more curiosity than actual interest.  Googling how to get into business school isn't the same thing as passing the GRE.  One takes demonstrably more effort.

And I'm assuming this is directly a result of the plan to move away from oil?  And I get that a lot of people make money off fossil fuels, but we're going to need a plan at some point.  "I don't care, we'll run out of oil when I'm dead" - but don't you care about your kids?  Or your grandkids?  Whether you think fossil fuels contribute to global warming or not, there aren't any more dinosaurs on their way to deliver us fresh oil.  Once it's gone, it's gone.  And I think the plan is "hey, can we get something else figured out before the oil runs out?"

(And I just googled when the oil will run out).  2053 is the estimate I saw.  I'll be almost 70.  But my daughter will only be in her 30s.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

People are Googling "Can I change my vote" because Trump encouraged people to do so and there was some effort to take some interest.

The cake is almost baked. It's no longer a question of whether or not Biden has enough votes to beat Trump. The real question is whether or not Trump's voter suppression efforts will lead to low enough margins of victory that Trump can contest the results. The Supreme Court, even without Amy Coney Barrett, will not allow mail-in ballots arriving after the election to be counted. They're going for Pennsylvania next. Brett Kavanaugh has signalled that he wants to have as many mail-in ballots thrown out as possible.

Slider_Quinn21 argues that any Democrat knows all this; that's why they either voted in person or deposited their ballot in a ballot box or mailed it in ASAP. But the reality is that Biden won't just win on Democrats; he needs independents, he needs Republicans who are appalled by Trump; he needs people seniors who might struggle to find a witness for the signature; he needs people who might not be able to mail their ballots as soon as they wish to; he needs undecideds -- and if the election results are close and contested, Amy Coney Barrett will rule in Trump's favour along with four conservative judges. She stood with Trump after her confirmation; she attended a superspreader event; she wants power. She doesn't care if people get sick for her to get power. And she won't want Biden in the White House because he is open to packing and rebalancing the court and therefore eroding her power.

Temporal Flux (an independent, as far as I can tell) is right to tell us Democrats to worry; I just don't think TF's looking in the right direction. Trump could still win. But... this is America. America's faced armadas bringing about its darkest hours time and time again under savage ultimatums from those wielding their false claims of deadly secrets wrapped in a crazed narcotica of counterfeit patriotism to feed their own hunger for blood and splendor. But for two centuries, America has always come through.

The world has predicted America's demise ever since George Washington was criticized for being a mediocre surveyor with a bad set of wooden teeth. And so far, every single person that's bet against America has lost money, because you always come back. And you can come back from Donald Trump. Temporal Flux has said Trump's successor could be worse; Transmodiar says America wouldn't be improved by removing Trump from office; they're smart guys, but sometimes, they're just wrong.

Donald Trump is incapable of using the presidency as anything but a platform for attention from crowds and rallies. He has no judgement other than his desperate need to be complimented by his intelligence without doing anything to earn it. He has no openness to the expertise of experts, no moral compass and absolutely no sense of responsibility for the over 300 million lives he is sworn to protect. And the results of this man's term in office have been catastrophic: 200,000 Americans dead. Transmodiar stuck in his house working from home. Temporal Flux could have died. Your standing in the world reduced to a punchline. This president must be removed from office. You can do that. Slider_Quinn21 has already done his part.

Trump could win. I bet Temporal Flux that if Trump won, I would write SLIDERS REBORN Part 7 which Transmodiar would inevitably have to read. I have prepared a plot just in case I have to script it and I've dug out my Season 3 DVD set in case I need to rewatch the Neil Dickson episodes to capture the actor's mannerisms. Is it likely? No. It's not likely. It also wasn't likely that someone would write a sequel to "Slide Effects," but that's happening.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Independent probably fits best.  On the books, I’m actually a registered Democrat.  My state has closed primaries, and for decades there was never a serious Republican challenger in local / state elections; so you had to register as a Democrat to get access to the primary where the actual election was taking place between multiple Democrats.  Before you got to the general election in November, everything was long since done and decided.

We still have closed primaries, but it’s no longer tied to your party registration.  When you walk in to vote, you just tell them what party you want to vote for, and then you’re locked into only voting for candidates of that party until general Election Day when you can then vote for anyone that survived the primaries.  It’s funny how things flipped with that change too.  Now most of the candidates in my state run as Republican.

My philosophy is that I vote for the best person; and sometimes there is no best person.  I’m also a firm believer in term limits, and I stopped voting for people like Thad Cochran and Roger Wicker long ago.  They have (or had) been there too long.  If there’s no one I can stomach voting for, I do a write in; and since his death, my write in candidate is always my Dad.  I think I’ll keep him as my write-in when needed.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

ireactions wrote:

Slider_Quinn21 argues that any Democrat knows all this; that's why they either voted in person or deposited their ballot in a ballot box or mailed it in ASAP. But the reality is that Biden won't just win on Democrats; he needs independents, he needs Republicans who are appalled by Trump; he needs people seniors who might struggle to find a witness for the signature; he needs people who might not be able to mail their ballots as soon as they wish to; he needs undecideds

The stats show that Democrats are overwhelmingly turning their ballots in early.  So while a lot more Democrats are voting by mail, so many of them are already getting returned.  There's a decent chance that a great majority of the Democratic vote will already be in before Election Day happens.  That's not just a good strategy for Covid, it's a great strategy in general.  If Republicans have to stand in line all day, how many of them will wait all day?  How many can afford to?  What if it's cold?  Or rainy?  What if they aren't feeling well because they went to an f-ing rally during a pandemic?  Worse yet, what if someone a few people ahead of them is coughing and they still have another hour to wait?

Trump is having big superspreader events in swing states a week or two before the election where Republicans are expected to mostly wait for Election Day.  I'm willing to bet most Trump fans would go to the polls if they didn't feel well.  But what if they *really* didn't feel well.  What if they're in the hospital?  Cases are piling up in the midwest - some of those people aren't going to be able to vote.  If you had to guess who would be more likely to catch covid right now...I'm willing to bet it's a vote for the guy who hates masks and science and not the guy encouraging masks and social distancing.  I know democrats get sick, but democrats have also voted early.

-- and if the election results are close and contested, Amy Coney Barrett will rule in Trump's favour along with four conservative judges. She stood with Trump after her confirmation; she attended a superspreader event; she wants power. She doesn't care if people get sick for her to get power. And she won't want Biden in the White House because he is open to packing and rebalancing the court and therefore eroding her power..

I don't know why more people weren't outraged by the obvious break in the separation of powers.  Especially ACB, who obviously doesn't care about the optics.  I'm willing to say that she will not take her job seriously.  The democratic message has been to get your votes in (mail in or otherwise) early.  The Democrats, for the most part, have done their part.

Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight says, because of this, it's not certain that the votes to be counted will necessarily be mostly Democrat.  If Democrats get their ballots in and Republicans don't, the Republican effort to throw out ballots might actually hurt them instead of helping them.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

The last time Republicans tried to suppress the vote in Wisconsin, they ultimately suppressed their own voters.

**

Regardless of my preferences, voting is a vital and personal freedom and each person's choice in the act of voting should never be criticized as that suggests their vote should be taken away from them. Criticism is best reserved for the candidates and the individual voter's conduct after they cast their vote without remarking upon the vote itself. Candidates must earn their votes and if Joe Biden does not earn Temporal Flux's willingness to waive Biden's 44 years in government, then this must be respected as Temporal Flux's choice. I told Transmodiar the same thing.

ME: "Votes have to be earned. It's okay. You can write in Andrew Yang's name on your ballot. This is America, god damn it."

TRANSMODIAR: "Hahah! You scamp. You don't even live in America."

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

ireactions wrote:

Temporal Flux (an independent, as far as I can tell) is right to tell us Democrats to worry; I just don't think TF's looking in the right direction. Trump could still win. But... this is America. America's faced armadas bringing about its darkest hours time and time again under savage ultimatums from those wielding their false claims of deadly secrets wrapped in a crazed narcotica of counterfeit patriotism to feed their own hunger for blood and splendor. But for two centuries, America has always come through.

I see what you did here. wink

ireactions wrote:

Transmodiar says America wouldn't be improved by removing Trump from office

No, I said America may not be improved, then outlined a bunch of reasons why a Biden presidency doesn't herald a return to decency or awesome federal governance. I also fully explained that Trump is a dumpster fire of a human being and a terrible president, but that maybe we haven't hit rock bottom yet and him beating Biden would force the Democratic Party to reconcile their shitty centrist politics and find a candidate that actually inspires other human beings. All the recent talk about fracking and how a Biden/Harris ticket supports it even though it's worse for the environment than oil (!) shows you they still have their heads up their asses, even if Biden acquiesces to his previous failures in legislation.

If I were Biden and my strongest rallying cry is that I'm not Trump, I'd have to have a long hard look at myself and what it means that my voting block hinges on that level of desperation.

ireactions wrote:

Donald Trump is incapable of using the presidency as anything but a platform for attention from crowds and rallies. He has no judgement other than his desperate need to be complimented by his intelligence without doing anything to earn it. He has no openness to the expertise of experts, no moral compass and absolutely no sense of responsibility for the over 300 million lives he is sworn to protect. And the results of this man's term in office have been catastrophic: 200,000 Americans dead. Transmodiar stuck in his house working from home. Temporal Flux could have died. Your standing in the world reduced to a punchline. This president must be removed from office. You can do that. Slider_Quinn21 has already done his part.

Replace Trump with Reagan and nothing fundamentally changes. Reagan was an empty vessel who was pro-union and pro-socialism until he started hosting a GE TV show in the 60s. His policies led to the deaths of millions across the globe, to say nothing about the AIDS epidemic he ignored for years while president.

Replace Trump with Bush Senior and you get a crafty dynastic asshole who is behind so much of the CIA's miserable expanse into global hegemony it makes my head spin. He also probably was involved in trying to murder his predecessor. What a piece of work - but I will say things fundamentally change when you make the swap!

Replace Trump with Clinton and nothing fundamentally changes. Clinton was a sex pest who was ostensibly pro-American until he pushed NAFTA through, a policy that led to the death of a distinctly American way of life. The number of scandals that erupted while he was in charge are legendary and numerous, but the cult of personality he created still lives to this day. Even after ordering the death of thousands in Bosnia/Serbia.

Replace Trump with Dubya and nothing fundamentally changes. Bush was an empty vessel who allowed the ignorant "experts" installed around him to control policy from minute one of his presidency. His blatant refusal to think big or embrace a moral compass that extends beyond "Saddam tried to murder my dad" led to 20 years of perpetual war where the United States is complicit in war crimes. He was reduced to a punchline while still in office. Oh, yeah, and let's not forget the response to Hurricane Katrina. Fuck you, W.

Replace Trump with Obama and nothing fundamentally changes. Obama ran on hope and change and reversed course the moment he won office. He had the opportunity to overhaul finance reform, institute single payer insurance, redistribute American wealth to the people instead of the banks in 2008, and repair some of the frayed social fabric of our nation. He did none of that, but he sure looked good while not doing it! An empty vessel that allowed himself to be pumped with every "status quo" piece of policy imaginable when asked. Also killed a bunch of kids with drone strikes. Thanks, Obama.

ireactions wrote:

Trump could win. I bet Temporal Flux that if Trump won, I would write SLIDERS REBORN Part 7 which Transmodiar would inevitably have to read. I have prepared a plot just in case I have to script it and I've dug out my Season 3 DVD set in case I need to rewatch the Neil Dickson episodes to capture the actor's mannerisms. Is it likely? No. It's not likely. It also wasn't likely that someone would write a sequel to "Slide Effects," but that's happening.

Why would I inevitably have to read part 7? I never read the first 6 parts. :-D

Earth Prime | The Definitive Source for Sliders™

1,587 (edited by ireactions 2020-10-29 08:29:28)

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

You've read Part 1 and Part 4 and the last two pages of Part 6. You've had to go through pretty much every scene of Parts 2 - 3 with me. You outlined the first draft of Part 5. If I write Part 7 of SLIDERS REBORN ("Redemption," Rembrandt vs. Rickman), Transmodiar will inevitably have to go through every single plot point and page with me over Google Hangouts. He'll say he won't do it. He'll quit. But Transmodiar always comes back to SLIDERS REBORN. He does say otherwise, and we'll have to agree to disagree on that.

**

I'm not going to defend the Clintons or the Bushes, but I will note that Obama was always slightly short of Senators in Congress to engage in his promised legislation due to Al Franken being delayed in confirmation for seven months and Robert Byrd and Ted Kennedy being taken out of commission -- which opened the door to relentless Republican obstruction to any and all progressive policies making it impossible to get anything passed for wealth redistribution, single payer insurance, financial reform or even a sensibly sized stimulus package for the recession. The use of drones was bad, but it's only gotten worse under Trump. And I think we'll have to agree to disagree here as well.

**

I don't believe Obama would have refused to engage the Defense Production Act to produce personal protective equipment or held superspreader events or claimed the virus was going away at 200,000 deaths or withheld ventilators or called for militias to overthrow lockdowns or confiscated masks and ventilators from hospitals or called for testing to be slowed down or denied there was any community transmission happening or encouraged people to inject bleach. We'll have to agree to disagree.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Also, for those who think nothing fundamentally changed in going from Obama to Trump -- ah, to have the moral certainty that comes from being privileged, middle class, Caucasian, heterosexual and male.

What I take from that is that it is awesome to have:

  • Good and supportive parents

  • A stable upbringing

  • An ethnicity that doesn't engender discrimination

  • A sexuality that draws no attention

  • A middle class economic status that means you can get laid off and bounce back

  • A financial situation where you can total your car and take the economic hit

  • A level of employment where you can lose your computer and instantly replace it with one that came free in a work contest

  • A job that you can do from home

All that creates the opportunity to build a life where it doesn't matter to you who is President. And to be clear: Transmodiar earned these things. Temporal Flux has said that Transmodiar was handed everything in life. That's not true; Transmodiar was handed a strong starting point. He had to scrabble and scrape to keep it. He had to strain and strive to build on it. Transmodiar was given a good chance. He worked hard to make it a great success.

Transmodiar has a fundamental aplomb and certainty, a committed work ethic, a drive to succeed because he knows that there is nothing he cannot do; there are just things he has not learned how to do yet. This is inherent to his nature, but he was also blessed with the opportunity for his nature to be made manifest. To build a life where he is someone for whom "nothing fundamentally changes" if it's President Trump instead of President Obama or President Biden.

Too many Americans never get that opportunity and have it actively taken away from them. Too many Americans work twice as hard to get half as much if not less. And most Americans do not live lives where "nothing fundamentally changes" under a second term of President Trump.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

* Slider_Quinn21 still has full confidence in the math and Joe Biden *

But I have my moments when I lose my faith.  I've begun a regimen where I make sure I get 10,000 steps every day.  Because of various factors, this requires me to walk around my house at night with nothing to do but listen to podcasts or read things on twitter.  I used to listen exclusively to the Rewatchables or the Weekly Planet, but I've mixed in 538 and have been poring over polling data.  And while 538's model is reasonably confident in a Biden win, I also fall down rabbit holes that lead me to dark places where Trump's chances look better.

Like most Trump-adjacent things, the data is vague, debatable, or explainable.  But it's still there.  A lot of it depends on two things - the race tightening and the polls being wrong.  One or the other and it doesn't work.

And last night I had a crisis of faith.  Florida is a toss-up, even in a Biden-confident place like 538 (they have him at 65% to win Florida) so it's easy to see that one going to Trump.  Then there's Pennsylvania - most of the evidence there is anecdotal and contradictory, but there's certainly a chance Trump wins there (538 gives him a 14% chance).  What if Trump wins both?  It's over, right?

What's funny is that it's not.  As long as Biden holds Michigan (94% chance), Wisconsin (93% chance), and Minnesota (93% -chance), and either Nebraska-2 (78%), Maine-2 (55%), or Iowa (51%), then Biden just needs to win one of these states to win:

- Arizona (70%)
- North Carolina (65%)
- Georgia (57%)
- Ohio (39%)
- Texas (32%)

In other words, if you trust the polling, Biden can lose two states he's mathematically supposed to win that are remarkably different in many ways (so losing one wouldn't mean losing the other) and he still has several backup plans that are all mathematically more likely to happen than not.  He could win Arizona and Nebraska-2.  He could win Iowa and North Carolina. He could win Maine-2 and Georgia.

And even if all that falls through, he still has the same odds that Trump would've overcome to win Ohio or Texas.

Trump has to win them all.

Or break through the blue wall in the Midwest.

All possible.  Statistically unlikely.  Trust the math and it will ease your nerves during your night walks to get to 10,000 steps.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

I've been playing around at 270towin.com and as far as I can tell, your math works out.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

I recall hearing something about a "blue wall" in the Midwest four years ago...

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Ah, would that we could all be so uninvested in this situation that we'll just throw some snide remarks around and call it a day.

Politico has an interesting article about potential shy Trump voters.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/ … 016-433619

I think it is nonsense. Five Thirty Eight notes that Trump performed better than expected, but only within the margin of error. You never know which direction the error is in.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/tr … e-of-them/

Trump's path to victory, such as it exists, would be if the polls are slightly off in Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, and Iowa with Trump being a little ahead rather than slightly behind, but he'd also need Pennsylvania to get an Electoral College win. The odds of this? 11 out of 100. The chance of rolling a one on a six sided die. The chance of it raining in Los Angeles. Likely? No. It's not likely. Possible? Yes. It is possible.

And I am afraid. Anyone who isn't afraid of another four years of President Trump is either deranged or living a life of at least moderate privilege. But a great patriot once declared that the antidote to fear is action. Because evil triumphs when we allow it to paralyze us. But to respond by doing something, however small, is to defy the despair turns reason into panic and advance into retreat. Give one person the conviction that their small actions matter and that one person can win a battle. Give that same person an army with that same conviction united into a greater whole and they can win a war.

I post links to iwillvote.com into random corners of the internet. These are dark and desperate times.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

pilight wrote:

I recall hearing something about a "blue wall" in the Midwest four years ago...

It's the same argument every time.  2016.  2016.  2016.

Pollsters messed up in 2016.  And they were CRUCIFIED for it.  Go to any post that even references Nate Silver, and he's *attacked* for how bad a job he did.  We can argue semantics about whether or not giving someone a 30% chance to win and then they win is that big of a mistake, but trust me, he paid for it.  And  the polls themselves paid for it.  This is their Super Bowl, and they'll all admit that they blew it.

And if the 2020 election was a week after the 2016 election, then yeah, I think there'd be real doubt about the process being broken.

But they had four years to fix their process.  Four years to rebuild polling from the ground up.  Four years to find their mistakes in sampling.  Find out who they missed.  Find out what went wrong and more importantly, how to fix it.  These are very smart people that are paid a ton of money to do one thing, and they had four full years to clean up their act.

Maybe they pissed away those four years.  Maybe they made the exact same mistakes.  Maybe Trump voters are tricking and gaming the system despite polls' efforts.

But to just completely write off 4 years of efforts because of mistakes made and acknowledged is just a little naive if you ask me.

1,594 (edited by Grizzlor 2020-10-30 12:02:19)

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

I believe SQ21 is a Texan no?  Texas right now is simply an amazing success story for democracy.  Over 9 million votes have been cast, which is half million or so above 2016 in total.  Estimates are perhaps THREE million more votes there than 2016.  How does that stack up? 

https://bfschaffner.shinyapps.io/CES2020/

I give you the 2020 Cooperative Election Study by YouGov, featuring over 50,000 likely voters ONLINE.  That means the "lying to pollsters baloney" isn't in effect.  This is the analysis which so much will be based on.  The findings are quite in line with most of the national polling Biden +9, but check out the 2016 voter results.  Biden barely loses any Clinton vote, while Trump loses 6% which is significant in a close race.  Moreover, those who voted 3rd party, or did not vote, prefer Biden by a 2 to 1 margin. 

Trump won Texas by over 800,000 votes.  If Biden takes the "new" voters 2:1, that's a gain of perhaps 1 million votes if 3 million winds up being the "new" total.  Beyond that, 2016 voters who switch candidates alone could be a 400,000 Biden swing.  Again, this is all very broad, but now you see why Beto O'Rouke and Julian Castro are screaming about putting more $$$ and appearances into the Lone Star State. 

The CES result also falls in line with most statewide and district-based polling in states like Pennsylvania, where Trump's suburban white margins are polling 8-12 points worse than 2016.  It's true he has slightly closed the black margin, and greatly closed the Hispanic margin.  However, the Hispanic margins won't do much for him in the Rust Belt. 

I repeat *once more* Trump needs record turnout from MAGA, plus depressed turnout from Dems, plus at worst an even margin with indies, and that's just to overcome the negative demographic shift over 4 years.  Someone tell me where that's coming from?  Lying to pollster voters won't cut it.  I'm not sure WHEN these states will have the counts in sufficiently to see who won, but there's simply little to no good news for Trump in high quality polling out there.  We know his plan, it's to attempt to throw out millions of ballots.  It won't work, because I have a feeling that enough of them will have been counted nationwide to show he lost, perhaps quite demonstratively.  That might well come before the end of next week, and he won't have time to file injunctions to stop them, let alone that there are judges willing to even do so.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Grizzlor wrote:

I believe SQ21 is a Texan no?  Texas right now is simply an amazing success story for democracy.  Over 9 million votes have been cast, which is half million or so above 2016 in total.  Estimates are perhaps THREE million more votes there than 2016.

Yup.  Now Informant is also in Texas so, if anything, I just cancelled out his vote.

I honestly don't know how the extra votes don't help Biden.  Maybe Trump gained votes between 2016 and 2020, but I don't see it on the ground here.  I live in a fairly conservative area (Trump won my county by 17 points).  I've seen maybe 6 political signs total, and I'd say it's 4-2 Trump.  Just anecdotally, I don't see enthusiasm in what should be a very safe space for Trump voters to express themselves.

I hear you now.  And, no, I don't have a sign.  Signs don't prove votes, and people tend to be non-confrontational with their neighbors.  So can house signs alone prove enthusiasm?  Nope.

I live in a somewhat rural area as well.  There's a cotton field about a mile from my house.  There are longhorns a few miles down the other direction.  Go much further north and you start seeing more fields than houses.  And during elections, these fields BLOOM with political signs.  County commissioner, state reps, judges, and the like.  You can put a sign up in a field, and you run no risk of anyone knowing (unless they see you put it up, I guess).

I've seen *zero* Trump signs.  Sometimes you'll see dozens of signs in these fields.  None.  Zero.  Trump has rallied in Texas zero times.  I'm not saying Biden will pull of an epic upset, but:

- Trump isn't campaigning here.  No rallies.  No surrogates, even.  Ted Cruz is campaigning elsewhere.  And per 538, the Republicans have aired less than a 1000 TV ads for $200,000 in Texas
- Record turnout.  Untapped Republicans or previously disinterested/disenfranchised Democrats?
- Democrats consistently beat polling in Texas.  Beto O'Rourke lost to Ted Cruz, but not by much and outperformed the polls by 4 points.  If that repeats itself, Texas goes blue and Trump has 0.0 chance.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

ireactions wrote:

Also, for those who think nothing fundamentally changed in going from Obama to Trump -- ah, to have the moral certainty that comes from being privileged, middle class, Caucasian, heterosexual and male.

Nothing fundamentally changes on the part of our leaders. Does society change? Yes - but only by fighting against establishment laws and rules. Gay rights, trans rights, black rights, etc. - none of that was the result of sweeping national reforms. It was grassroots movements fighting for years to inch their way toward acceptance. The biggest obstacle was leadership.

This isn't an observation I made because I'm "privileged, middle class, Caucasian, heterosexual and male." It's an observation made by watching the shit storm brewing for decades and being able to point decisively to the elected officials who ignore their constituents and vote along party lines or with the money. I don't need to be a white guy to see that; in fact, I'd argue that people in my position are more inclined to stick to the status quo and ride white privilege as long as humanly possible.

I voted this week. Voted my conscience. No apologies.

Earth Prime | The Definitive Source for Sliders™

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Isn't supporting another four years of President Donald Trump even if you don't support him an inclination to stick to the status quo of President Donald Trump? Are you sure you're as much as an iconoclast as you think?

You have the luxury of saying another four years of President Trump will be fine. You weren't in any way affected by the first four years of President Trump.

So the upshot of this would once again be: congratulations on being white, moderately affluent, and knowing you'll still retain your advantages and immunity under the status quo of a second term of President Trump. It's easy for you again to declare another four years of Trump will be a life lesson and a godsend like you did four years ago. After all, you're not the one who's going to take it in the neck for this tutorial in failing democracy.

You're not overly impacted by the absence of a national or federally supported testing plan; you're not affected by hospital supplies of PPE being seized; you don't suffer from ventilators being withheld; you won't be hunted by militias encouraged by the president to hunt black men in the streets; you won't be beaten by racists who think President Trump means they've gone mainstream. If you shot someone black, Trumpists would take up a collection to pay your legal bills. Informant would chip in!

And if Trump wins, you get another round of the civics lesson you thought so highly of the first time. I see why Trump is not to your disadvantage. Well done, you.

But regardless, a fair and free election isn't fair and free if you're chastised for voting fairly and freely, so I don't see what anyone could possibly have to say about you writing in a name on your ballot.


**

Regarding the blue wall, here's Nate Silver on why 2020 won't be 2016:

Nate Silver wrote:

Polls often miss an election by 2 or 3 or 4 points, which is what happened in 2016. Ahead of an election, people need to be prepared for the fact that having a 2- or 3- or 4-point lead — which is what Clinton had in the key states — is not going to hold up anywhere close to 100 percent of the time. You might win 70 percent the time, like in the FiveThirtyEight forecast.

That said, there are a couple of things that are identifiable. One is that a bulk of the undecided voters in three key states — Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania — went toward Trump. If those undecided voters had split 50-50, Clinton would have won nationally by 5 or 6 points.

Trump can still win. In 2016, our final forecast said Trump had a 29 percent chance, and that came through; right now we give him a 12 percent chance to win in November. That’s not trivial, but it is a different landscape.

One difference is that there are fewer undecided voters this year. In 2016, there were about 13 or 14 percent undecided plus third party; it’s around 6 percent this year. That’s a pretty big difference. So that first mechanism that I described that helped Trump is probably not going to be a factor. Trump could win every undecided voter in these polls and he would still narrowly lose the Electoral College.

Biden’s lead is also a little bit larger. After the [FBI Director James] Comey letter, Clinton’s lead went down to 3 or 4 points in national polls and 2 or 3 points in the average tipping point state. Biden is ahead by more like 5 points in the average tipping point state.

We can definitely find cases in the past where there was a 5-point polling error in key states — that’s why Trump can win. But a 2016 error would not be quite enough: If the polls missed by exactly the same margin, exactly the same states, then instead of losing those three key Rust Belt states by 1 point, Biden would win them by 1 or 2 points. He might also hold on in Arizona, where the polls were fine in 2016. So it would be a close call, but one that wound up electing Biden in the end, pending court disputes, etc.

n the primary, you had a fairly explicit contrast between Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden. Bernie’s pitch explicitly was: We are going to win this with a high turnout of younger people and people of color. We’re the biggest coalition. So we’re going to win and we’re going to win the White House that way, too. Turnout, turnout, turnout.

Whereas Biden is about persuasion and the median voter. The median Democratic voter liked Medicare-for-all but liked the public option a little bit more and felt like it seemed a little safer electorally. For better or worse, Joe Biden’s pitch has come true: The reason he is way ahead in these polls is not because Democratic turnout is particularly high relative to GOP turnout — it’s because he’s winning independents by 15 points and moderates by 30 points. He’s winning back a fair number of Obama-Trump voters and keeping a fair number of Romney-Clinton voters. The story the polls are telling is that Biden is persuading the median voter not to back Donald Trump.

Biden is a throwback politician in so many ways. He’s also a throwback in the sense he’s very coalitional. He’s not a very ideological guy. He gets branded as a moderate, which I think also reflects the bias that if you’re an older white man you can have the same policy positions but will be branded as much less radical than a young Latina might. But still, he’s able to perfectly calibrate himself to what the median Democratic voter wants, and is good about listening to different coalitions within the party. That’s why he’s been successful over a long time. He’s very transactional and good at listening to different demands from different party constituencies.

https://www.vox.com/21538214/nate-silve … on-podcast

I too am ready for this to be done. I only have enough CAPTAIN AMERICA comic books from which I can paraphrase speeches to about November 7.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Transmodiar wrote:

Trump is a boob but he's a showman - and he will run circles around Biden. You think Crooked Hillary was bad? Wait 'til the Trump campaign latches on to the Anita Hill testimony, Biden's plagiarism during his first presidential campaign, his appreciation for Strom Thurmond's support, lies about apartheid-era visits to Nelson Mandela in South Africa, lies about marching for desegregation. Not that he'll even have to - the stuff with his kid in Ukraine, or his absolute inability to say anything that makes sense during televised interviews is right at their fingertips.

I don't even like Trump. But I know Biden doesn't have the stamina or eloquence to duke it out with the president. And, in seven months, people could see Trump as the savior who kept America together during a massive pandemic. Don't assume anything.

Seven months later and the only thing Trump has run rings around is the hospital where was being treated for COViD-19 because he wouldn't wear a mask.

It's worth looking at why. Where has Trump's edge gone? Trump made Hillary Clinton look corrupt, made Ted Cruz an incoherent liar, made Marco Rubio childlike --  but Trump was terrified of Biden, got himself impeached trying to dig up dirt on him, was reduced to trying to shout him down during the first debate and cowered from the second and staggered mutedly into the third. Why couldn't our showman Trump seem to land a single punch?

Molly Jong-Fast says it's because people now know that Trump projects.

Molly Jong-Fast wrote:

For instance, everything Trump accuses Biden of doing, he does himself, only worse. So when Trump World tried to shop the idea that Biden was creepy with women, all it really did was remind people that Trump has more than two dozen sexual assault allegations on his rap sheet.

When Trump World pushed the idea that Hunter Biden was somehow corrupt, you couldn’t help but think about Jivanka and DJTJ and all the ways the Trump family has been siphoning cash out of the public coffers.

Trump World tried painting Joe as doddering and old at the same time that the president was rambling through daily press conferences and struggling to walk down a ramp.

This is the problem with projection: Once people get wise to the pathology, then every boomerang you throw at your opponent comes back and pops you in the nose.

Donald Trump is no longer an outsider promising to blow things up.

Because of Trump’s administration, the United States has endured (so far) the equivalent death toll of 47 September 11’s. The unemployment rate is double digits, and many of us cannot safely leave our homes. Weirdly enough, people now seem to view “blowing it all up” as more bug than feature. Go figure.

https://thebulwark.com/why-cant-trump-land-a-punch/

Molly Jong-Fast has also noted that Donald Trump Jr. projects. Just like his father.

Molly Jong-Fast wrote:

The president’s bleary-eyed namesake failson is obsessed with Hunter Biden, and as the campaign session from hell continues that obsession seems more and more Freudian. It happened on Glenn Beck’s radio show the day after the debate, where Junior claimed that “crackhead Hunter has now a tie, a direct tie to Vladimir Putin.”

And the Putin smear was a true “no puppet” moment coming from the Trump kid who infamously met with Kremlin-connected Russian lawyer Natalia Veselnitskaya in June 2016, but was later found by Bob Mueller to be too stupid to have colluded, which some might say is the very definition of white male privilege. It all got me thinking about why Junior just can’t stop talking about Hunter.

During the debates, Trump senior attacked the president’s surviving son: “Hunter got thrown out of the military; he was thrown out, dishonorably discharged for cocaine use.” Of course this wasn’t totally true. Hunter was discharged but it was not under the category of dishonorable.

“My son, like a lot of people, like a lot of people you know at home, had a drug problem,” Biden responded. “He’s overtaken it. He’s fixed it. He’s worked on it. And I’m proud of him. I’m proud of my son.”

There are countless stories of Trump Senior degrading and humiliating Trump Junior, including telling him once, according to Sam Nunberg in Julia Ioffe’s piece in GQ, “Don, you can finally do something for me—you can go hunting.” And that’s not to mention the famous story of Senior not wanting to share his name with Junior because of the worry that he might be a loser.

Junior is furious. Junior is fragile. Junior is triggered. I happen to think that the phrase “I’m proud of my son” said to the audience with such intensity and conviction might be why Trump Junior hates Hunter Biden so much.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/donald-ju … nd-telling

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

And one of the big reasons why America needs to reject Trump is that Don Jr will absolutely run for president in 2024.  And if America has rejected Trump, America will reject Don Jr.  If America embraces Trump again, Don Jr wins in 2024.

Literally no one wants that.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Slider_Quinn21 wrote:

And one of the big reasons why America needs to reject Trump is that Don Jr will absolutely run for president in 2024.  And if America has rejected Trump, America will reject Don Jr.  If America embraces Trump again, Don Jr wins in 2024.

Literally no one wants that.

Who says Trump Sr. will not try to run again?