Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

I forgot to mention: I also like pilight as a person.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

TemporalFlux wrote:

I have no idea if the claims are accurate, but I’m starting to see a preview of the likely legal arguments.

Allegedly, there are 3.1 million registered voters in Wisconsin, but 3.2 million voted this time.  It’s possible 100,000 new voters voted; but is it possible nearly 100% of registered voters turned out?  Not likely.

Allegedly, a voter precinct in Michigan had 138,399 votes for Biden and 0 votes for Trump.  It’s possible, but not likely.  Reminds me of the last census - my state had the only county in the US that had 0 people who identified as LGBTQ+.  No way that was true.

In any case, a possible preview of legal arguments in contesting the election.  And the US Supreme Court can rule however it wants as long as 5 justices agree.

The Wisconsin tweet that was making the rounds was apparently a typo and has been deleted.  There might be others, but there's definitely been some typing mistakes.

There's a county in Michigan that had the votes flipped - Biden got the Trump votes and vice-versa.  It wasn't enough to make that big of a difference but it was a few thousand votes as a swing.  If there are a few others, maybe it makes a difference (the same software was used elsewhere, but there's no evidence that any other counties were affected).

But it makes me wonder - do we have these same types of typos/errors in other elections, or is this unique to 2020?  I can't imagine it's unique - I'm guessing Trump voters are just looking for for them more and social media makes them explode.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

ireactions wrote:

All my favourite liberal propaganda websites are upset, hurt, shocked, traumatized and worse. They didn't get their landslide. They didn't even get a clear win.

They're also upset that the Dems are getting hammered in the House races and probably won't take the senate.  Biden's weak ground game cost them in down ticket races.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

You said earlier that Biden's digital campaigning efforts were not working, that the Republicans were outpacing him with in-person door knocking and voter registration. It looks like you were right with regards to Florida, an assessment I feel comfortable making as the votes there are fully counted.

What should the Biden campaign have done during a time of pandemic? (I genuinely don't know. I'm not a campaign manager.)

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Trump and the GOP had their people out working, pandemic be damned.  Many of them got sick and some died, but their sacrifice paid off for the party.

Whether or not that's something Biden and company should have done is debatable.  The price for not doing it is being paid now.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

And there is a growing belief Arizona really was called too early:

https://mobile.twitter.com/Data_Orbital … arizona%2F

Even Nate Silver of 538 appears to agree (if we want to believe bad pollsters who were wrong about most everything before now):

https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilver53 … arizona%2F

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

As of 3 PM, Biden had an over 90,000 vote lead but with about 600,000 left to count. It was definitely called too early.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

ireactions wrote:

As of 3 PM, Biden had an over 90,000 vote lead but with about 600,000 left to count. It was definitely called too early.

This is why I like watching more than one news channel.  CNN has been impressively fair throughout this whole thing.  They never called Arizona.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

I've always admired how you watch FOX and CNN.

I don't really have much to say. We don't have full results yet. Once we have them, we'll know how right or wrong we all were, whether or not we trusted the right experts, and whether or not any of us knew what the hell we were talking about. But I am guardedly optimistic about some areas and very concerned about others. The blue shift is real. But there are red mirages that turn out to be red certainties.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Thank.
God.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Lots of count questions.  As of this morning, Georgia has either 25,000 or 50,000 ballots left from mostly-blue areas.  So he needs either 75% of them or 60-something percent to win Georgia.  Since Nevada seems more likely to go Biden than any of the others, a Georgia win would give Biden 270 without even needing the Arizona or Pennsylvania cushion.

Pennsylvania seems to be trending Biden big time.  There are count questions there too, especially in Philadelphia.  Some reports say that there are enough votes in Philadelphia alone to get Biden over the top.  Some say there aren't, but even they think that the gap will close and Biden will overtake.  And that might be when networks finally get to call this thing for Biden.  It would be nice if Biden can win by enough votes to avoid a recount and also to win without any votes that came in after Tuesday to avoid that legal headache.

Arizona is still Biden, and Fox and the AP haven't retracted their call yet despite most people thinking they should.  They must know something or they'd pull it.  That something could be wrong, but they're still very confident and Fox has to have tons of pressure to retract.  The fact that Trump still needs a decent majority should be worrisome to the president.  The majority are from an area that is both deep red and deep blue, but there are also others from Pima county which should lean Biden.  If those votes go Biden (and they make up between 1/8 and 1/6 of what's left), Trump's going to have to get a huge amount of those to win Arizona.

North Carolina seems certain to be Trump.  Nevada only matters if Pennsylvania goes to Trump, but that one should be resolved or mostly resolved today either way.

1,632 (edited by Grizzlor 2020-11-05 12:38:54)

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Normally I cannot stand CNN, but they're the best in terms of covering the numbers and the breaking news.  FOX I've heard does the same, but I cannot stomach their pundits.

Nevada count will extend into Sat/Sun, which is ridiculous given they're counting like 1/100th the number that Pennsylvania is. Anyway, Biden is up 11.4K there with 63K from Vegas (likely Dem) and 60K provisional ballots (at best a wash). Georgia now a scant 13K, Biden may well pull ahead there. Pennsylvania 114K now, having gained 50K so far today. I think most news organizations are waiting for PA to call the election.

Biden is highly likely to take PA by maybe 100K votes when it's done with, as well as Nevada.  Arizona yes is a question, but the damn state only posts updates ONCE a night.  They should be finished by tomorrow supposedly.  Biden can win Georgia.

1,633 (edited by ireactions 2020-11-05 12:43:21)

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

It doesn't make sense (for me) to comment on results we don't entirely have yet. However, Slider_Quinn21 made a prediction about Trump:

Slider_Quinn21 wrote:

People see Trump as this dictator figure who will pull off a suppression campaign with military precision.  But look at his presidency and tell me where he's shown any ability to pull that off.  He had a chance to do it in 2018 as a trial run, and the Republicans lost big.  His government, despite having control of the House and Senate for the first two years of his presidency, passed nothing.  He didn't repeal or replace Obamacare.  He didn't build a beautiful wall and Mexico didn't pay for it.  And even though it would've benefited him in every way to deal with the pandemic effectively, he botched that too.

Even when you look at his criminal enterprises, he's inefficient and sloppy.  He didn't win on Russia and Ukraine because the Democrats couldn't prove it - he won on technicalities.  He's winning on tax returns because of technicalities.

Trump doesn't know what he's doing and the people around him don't know what they're doing.  Trump might actively want to send the military to polling places, but he's just as likely to send them to the wrong polling locations or the wrong states entirely.  Nothing he's done so far has indicated that anyone in his administration is capable of pulling off a successful voter suppression organization, especially if he's lost support from the party.  And with the electoral map looking the way it is, he'll need to pull off something that he's just not capable of pulling off in my opinion.

This has proven entirely correct. Trump is calling for ballots to no longer be counted... just because. There's no legal basis for that and it isn't working. He's declaring the election a fraud before the count is complete and the results are clear; this too has no legal traction. He attempted to claim victory in Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina and Michigan and was reminded that campaigns don't reveal state victories. He says he'll go to the Supreme Court; there is no case before the Supreme Court to stop counting votes and no legal grounds to do so. His comments, made publicly, will undermine any potential lawsuit he engages in to contest the results because they're not based on evidence; he just doesn't like losing.

Why can't Trump seem to steal this election? It's because even though his employees want to steal it, he keeps interfering and leading the charge and his arguments, methods and measures are simply to shriek that any vote that isn't for Donald Trump is a fraudulent ballot because he doesn't like them. He is self-destructing.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Trump's lawsuits challenging vote counting are not designed to win in court but to spread misinformation, encourage thuggish behavior by his supporters, and undermine the legitimacy of the election

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Grizzlor wrote:

Nevada count will extend into Sat/Sun, which is ridiculous given they're counting like 1/100th the number that Pennsylvania is. Anyway, Biden is up 11.4K there with 63K from Vegas (likely Dem) and 60K provisional ballots (at best a wash). Georgia now a scant 13K, Biden may well pull ahead there. Pennsylvania 114K now, having gained 50K so far today. I think most news organizations are waiting for PA to call the election.

Biden is highly likely to take PA by maybe 100K votes when it's done with, as well as Nevada.  Arizona yes is a question, but the damn state only posts updates ONCE a night.  They should be finished by tomorrow supposedly.  Biden can win Georgia.

Jon Ralston covers elections in Nevada and seems to think there's no way Trump wins.  The reason why it hasn't been called, as speculated by Nate Silver, is that Nevada going to Biden actually gives him the election on Fox and the AP.  Now Fox and the AP could stand by it and just roll with "we show Biden has 270, he's the next president" but mis-calling Arizona and mis-calling the winner are two different things.  So it could be the media deciding to let Nevada sit, blaming the number of ballots, to allow Arizona to get a bit more clearer so that Fox and the AP don't have to look stupid.

[pilight wrote:

Trump's lawsuits challenging vote counting are not designed to win in court but to spread misinformation, encourage thuggish behavior by his supporters, and undermine the legitimacy of the election

I agree with this, but what is the plan?  You can point to 70 million voters and say "those people will defend him and they're well armed" but what would that level of rebellion even look like?  And how would you organize it?  And even if you did, what's the endgame there?

Any sort of coup attempt would need full support of the military, and I don't think enough people in the military support Trump.  You could argue that maybe his best case is that police support him, but military trumps police.  And I think the jump from "I support Trump" to "I'm willing to participate in a coup" might be fairly big.

Trump can cry all he wants, but his best argument is that Pennsylvania votes are going to come in later than Election Day, but there doesn't seem to be any indications that Democrats got their votes in late in any sort of large numbers.  As ireactions said, Biden's team did a good job of getting people to drop off their votes early, and all of them should count.  Maybe they could find some corrupt judges to get a case to the Supreme Court, but Trump's arguments are weak.  Even if he somehow got "Trump v Biden" in front of the court, even with a majority, I can't imagine he wins that case or what that case would even look like.

Even politically, he's running out of options.  McConnell is backing off him.  A lot of Republicans are.  It probably doesn't matter long term, but short term, the Republicans did really well and aren't going to want to taint that with a wild goose chase.

Trump has a really good shot at Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.  Biden might win by a fairly short margin.  If Trump wants, he could probably run for another office (Governor of Florida?) or whatever he wants.  And if he wants, he could probably be the frontrunner in 2024 and we could do this all over again.  But all of that probably starts with not being dragged out of the White House, crying.

And that seems like where we're headed.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

It's still too early for an amateur like me to offer an opinion, but Trump is only a symptom of a larger problem and we still don't have a clear sense of how that problem can be addressed.

It isn't really up to Joe Biden how forward and progressive his presidency will be. The president in 2020 must have a Senate majority to govern effectively. Without the Senate or an effective bipartisan relationship with the Senate, the president is simply a figurehead and will accomplish about as much as Queen Elizabeth II.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Donald Trump Jr. said tonight “The best thing for the country is for people to go to war over this.”

He might be even more reckless than his father.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

From wacko conspiracy theory land, we have this:

https://banned.video/watch?id=5fa480cc65f2d419a08b54e2

I don’t believe it (no way the secret would get kept this long), but this stuff is where Sliders alternate histories can come from - almost believable, off-kilter, tilted reality.

https://www.factcheck.org/2020/11/bogus … egitimate/

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Yes, those conspiratorial Democrats rigged the election to not win in a landslide and not win in the Senate. The mythology of THE X-FILES looks airtight compared to this one.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Most of the Trumpers I know aren't even talking about fraud, as they know it's ridiculous.  They STILL insist COVID-19 was a conspiracy of China, the media, and Democrats to have Trump beaten.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

pilight wrote:

Donald Trump Jr. said tonight “The best thing for the country is for people to go to war over this.”

He might be even more reckless than his father.

If Trump either can't or doesn't run in 2024, this is your 2024 Republican nominee.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Slider_Quinn21 wrote:
pilight wrote:

Donald Trump Jr. said tonight “The best thing for the country is for people to go to war over this.”

He might be even more reckless than his father.

If Trump either can't or doesn't run in 2024, this is your 2024 Republican nominee.

Donald is one of a kind.  No one else (not even his son) can pull off what he did.

And Trump himself in 2024?  I think he’ll be too old if he’s even still alive.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

TemporalFlux wrote:

Donald is one of a kind.  No one else (not even his son) can pull off what he did.

And Trump himself in 2024?  I think he’ll be too old if he’s even still alive.

I just think there's a bit of a power vacuum in the Republican party.  I don't think they'll want to change too much since they had an overall great election, but who steps up?  The same Cruz, Rubio crowd?  Doubtful.  The Bushes are out.  I think there are probably some younger, lesser known Republicans.  But, especially if Trump gets the network going, I think he's going to push his son HARD.  And on name recognition alone, I think he'd get his foot in the door.  Then it's just a matter of how strong the Trump name is in 2024.

There's also a chance he tries to get Ivanka into a public office.  She's probably more palatable than Don Jr but we'll see.

I think Trump would absolutely try to run again.  He'd just be Biden's current age next time.  The only question is whether or not the dementia stuff is actually true.  If it is, he might not be sharp enough to pull it off again.

I agree that Trump is one of a kind.  I just think there are many in the party that would go back to that well again.  Don again, Don Jr, or Ivanka.  Not Eric haha.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Most news orgs have called it for Biden now.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

I have to ask Temporal Flux, Slider_Quinn21, Grizzlor, pilight and Transmodiar -- are Americans bad people?

47.7 per cent of voters (at present) saw four years of global discord, mental illness, racism, white supremacism and then months of a crashed economy and federal ineptitude in the face of a national crisis -- and they voted for another four years of the same. I said that the majority of Americans were good, strong, capable people who wouldn't vote for a failure and a lunatic who was out to kill them. This majority might not vote for Biden, but it would not vote for Trump. This majority turns out to have only a 2.3 per cent edge on Trump's cultists.

Joe Biden will be the next President of the United States. But he may not have the Senate majority he needs to enact any meaningful legislation on climate change, the pandemic, the economy or to rebalance the Supreme Court. In addition, the losses that Democrats took in the House mean that they are shut out of redistricting: the gerrymandering to Republican advantage will get even worse.

Assuming the worst for the moment, that the two Senate runoffs in Georgia will not be won by Democrats, this means that the trade progressives made in supporting Joe Biden's centricism in exchange for majoritarian political power has not paid off. The point of choosing Biden was the belief that he could be mostly tolerated by progressives and conservatives: Republicans appalled by Trump could live with Biden, progressives could see Biden as a transition to Andrew Yang, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. This coalition would acquire enough votes to win the White House and the Senate, make gains in the House and get Democrats into state houses to stop and reverse Republican gerrymandering. This was James Carville Jr.'s argument for Biden, that Sanders and other progressives would never win the Senate and never have the power to turn their talking points into actual legislation.

Well, the Democratic Party under Joe Biden has not won the Senate by a landslide and will be hit by worse gerrymandering. Carville Jr.'s concept of a broad coalition to acquire political power has not acquired it. Which means this bargain of centricism over progressivism for power was a failure and if the Democrats win a Senate majority through the Georgian runoffs in January, it's not due to broad range of voters large enough to win when united as as Democrats. It's going to have been procedural intricacy that Georgia requires runoffs if no candidate for Senate wins a minimum 50 per cent of the vote.

This is the point at which we have to ask if Transmodiar was right. That Biden and Biden's vision of Democrats is so indistinct and watered down with centrist Republicanism that it doesn't speak to Democrats, doesn't inspire voters, doesn't bring turnout. That the Democrat's candidate needed to be someone with new and inspiring ideas and a real change, someone who wanted Medicare for All, who would randomly hand people a thousand bucks a month just to see what it would do to the economy. Someone like Andrew Yang who would theoretically get that progressive turnout.

Except turnout we have right now is at over 145 million votes and counting and 47.7 per cent of it -- almost half -- is for Trump. What portion of Trump's 70 million voters would have voted for Bernie Sanders or Andrew Yang or Elizabeth Warren?

There has been a long argument that Republicans have triumphed through minority rule; that they represent a very small number of people and that America has gradually been moving towards progressive Democrats, that Texas is well on its way to becoming a blue state, that Americans see that Republicans are a broken cult of personality with no ability to govern and that it's simply a matter of getting a sufficient turnout for Democratic and left-leaning voters against a system that makes their votes count for less than Republican votes. But at 47.7 per cent of voters voting for Donald Trump, the Republicans' minority is at a slim 2.3 per cent. What progressive candidate would ever win over such voters? America is proving to be a far more conservative, repressive and suicidal population than I had hoped.

Smart and forward thinking people like Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Andrew Yang are the future of the Democratic Party -- but with 70 million Trump voters, I don't know how much of a future they would have, especially when the supposed majoritarian centrism of Biden only has 0.6 per cent votes over everyone else running for president or being written in.

Maybe it's time to go back to the drawing board except with Georgia's runoffs, Democrats don't have much time.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Americans are not bad people, no.  In Florida, they voted Trump AND for the minimum wage to be increased.  Americans are primarily centrists.  The far left and far right are the most vocal, and spend the most money on candidates, but they do not represent most Americans.  That said, many of the progressive ideas DO get widespread support.  The problem are the messagers, because well, they're politicians.  I thought Yang was a breath of fresh air.  AOC and her squad will get nowhere.  In fact, Pelosi ought to go too, as there's a revolt currently in the Democratic caucus about all of them.  Several members got boiled alive by socialism ads used against them plastered with AOC.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Grizzlor wrote:

In Florida, they voted Trump AND for the minimum wage to be increased.

In 2016, Trump campaigned on raising the minimum wage.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

I hope Americans aren't bad people.

But looking at Informant, he's currently screeching that the media calling the election for Biden is illegitimate and too early, although he had no issue with Trump calling the election for himself. Informant is whining that the election is being stolen when his party made gains in the House, has the state houses for gerrymandering, and currently holds the Senate which means his problem isn't that conservatism lost (because it hasn't) -- he's mad that his cult leader's claims are being ignored and dismissed as the empty delusions of a soon-to-be disempowered madman and no one should ever be allowed to ignore Informant's cult leader.

And there are (apparently) at least 70 million people just like Informant.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

pilight wrote:
Grizzlor wrote:

In Florida, they voted Trump AND for the minimum wage to be increased.

In 2016, Trump campaigned on raising the minimum wage.

Yes to a hilarious $10.  Florida's is now $15.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

ireactions wrote:

I hope Americans aren't bad people.

But looking at Informant, he's currently screeching that the media calling the election for Biden is illegitimate and too early, although he had no issue with Trump calling the election for himself. Informant is whining that the election is being stolen when his party made gains in the House, has the state houses for gerrymandering, and currently holds the Senate which means his problem isn't that conservatism lost (because it hasn't) -- he's mad that his cult leader's claims are being ignored and dismissed as the empty delusions of a soon-to-be disempowered madman and no one should ever be allowed to ignore Informant's cult leader.

And there are (apparently) at least 70 million people just like Informant.

What's he on Twitter?  The stolen crap is just plain pathetic.  All of the Republican state officials refuted every claim so far.  The courts have tossed them.  Trump should be finding better lawyers, he's going to need them.  The Manhattan DA, at the least, are hot on his trail.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Look, it's terribly embarrassing. It's all terribly embarrassing.  And disappointing.  Extremely disappointing.  And angering.

1,652 (edited by ireactions 2020-11-07 19:10:21)

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

RussianCabbie_Lotteryfan wrote:

Look, it's terribly embarrassing. It's all terribly embarrassing.  And disappointing.  Extremely disappointing.  And angering.

What are you referring to specifically? Are you alright? I know we've had some spats because I was immature and psychologically unbalanced. Those were my fault. Entirely my fault. Not yours. And in the mental clarity I have acquired after quite a bit of psychotherapy, I know that you're a very fine person and you have no more to be embarrassed by than any other average person on this Earth.

**

Informant is StarletteNovel on Twitter. I blocked him awhile ago, but I periodically check what he's been posting -- if only because my dear friend Rob lives in his town and if Informant becomes dangerous, I shall call the police.

**

My guess is that Trump, despite knowing he's lost, will make noise about legal challenges to raise money from his cult of suckers -- but the bulk of whatever he raises will go to his hairstylist and paying off the debt his campaign incurred.

**

I have generally believed that the majority of people are not malevolent. People aren't against you as much as they're for themselves. But over 70 million voters pledged their support to a madman who ignored a national pandemic. That isn't acting for themselves. That's suicide and condemning their countrymen to death. Voters against both candidates could have at least written in someone else's name and met the minimum level of decency that way. Four years ago, Quinn Mallory encouraged Slider_Quinn21 to vote for Joe the Tiger Guy and SQ21 said he found it oddly convincing. http://sliders.tv/bboard/viewtopic.php?pid=4343#p4343

RussianCabbie? Slider_Quinn21? Temporal Flux? Transmodiar? Grizzlor's weighed in, but I have to ask still.
http://sliders.tv/bboard/viewtopic.php?pid=10683#p10683

Are Americans... evil?

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Ultimately, I believe most Americans just want to live their lives.  They want to make their own decisions and live with them.  This happened tonight as the virus stricken flooded the streets of all major US cities celebrating with open champagne bottles passed from person to person - drinking after each other.

I hope that Biden will follow through with his slogans, but I fully expect a return to the old days of half the country being ignored by all politicians.  When people are ignored by all politicians for decades, they will passionately listen to the first person who acknowledges they still exist.  That was Trump.

If the goal is to avoid another Trump, then it starts with looking at who he reached and reach out to them.  I am reminded of something that was an issue early in Trump’s presidency - the idea that he would actually talk to North Korea and legitimize them.  In truth, that’s how American politicians have viewed their own country too.  Don’t talk beyond your base - you might legitimize the other side.  And so, we stay divided.

The media have sensationalized the worst parts of both halves of the country, but the majority have much more in common.  The US is one of the most charitable nations on earth; we like helping others.  I just hope that we’ll be able to continue doing so.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

My God! I just saw that footage of Biden supporters not distancing and sharing drink containers. I'm horrified. I understand euphoria, but that's just suicidal and deranged. I've written a message to Biden pleading for him to tell his constituents to stay apart and I guess we'll see if he's still doing whatever I ask him to do in my mail.

It's not really up to Biden if he'll be able to live up to his campaign promises. It depends on winning the Senate and it looks like the Democrats' last chance for it this cycle is with the runoffs in Georgia. If Democrats fail to win the Senate, I imagine that President Biden will be a genial figurehead of photo ops and speeches who addresses the working class but will ultimately be unable to pass any legislation to help them.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

I don't think Americans are evil.  I agree with TF - I think most people don't think about politics that much.  I think some think about it too much, and I think those people need to ease up.  And I think Twitter becomes a furnace for these kinds of people.  But I see the same kind of things happen with sports on twitter so I don't necessarily think it's only politics.  When you isolate yourself with people who think like you, it's easy to think everyone thinks like you.

And I don't think 70 million people stand for what Trump stands for.  I think most people can put aside the man and his personality and focus on what they want to focus on.  Just like people can put aside JK Rowling's issues and still like Harry Potter.  If you are passionate about abortion issues, I think you'll vote for the person who supports your side whether they're Jesus or Satan.

And I think that's mostly the point.  When you only think about politics once every four years, you make your decision and you forget about it.  I've always wondered if Trump was a Democrat how it would work. If he stacked the court with pro-choice judges, and if he'd made it so that gun laws would be passed to make the country safer.  If Trump fully supported BLM and was doing work on police reform and knelt during the national anthem at the Super Bowl alongside black players.  If everything about Trump was the same, but his politics were flipped....would everything else be flipped?  Would liberals swallow their opinions of Trump and vote for him because the ends justify the means?  I don't know - it's a good thought experiment for another time.

So when you add up the pro-life votes and the evangelical votes and the 2nd amendment votes and the pro-police votes and the "I'm voting with my pocketbook and that means Republican" votes and the "I've always voted Republican no matter who" votes, I think that leaves the "I like Trump" and "I'm a nazi/white supremacist" votes,, and I just don't think that number is that high.  Maybe it is.  Maybe I'm naive.

But I just don't think there are enough people that like Trump.  I think there are tons of reasons to vote for him, but I don't know how many of those reasons have to do with him.  Just like a ton of the people who voted for Biden don't know the man or what he stands for - they were voting against Trump.

And since we gave everyone the right to vote, they get to make their own decisions.

*****************

I agree with TF that the Democrats need to do much better about reaching out to people.  Just being "we aren't Trump" wasn't enough.  They didn't make a convincing enough argument or they would've won the Senate.  There are obviously people who want to vote, and a ton of those people voted Republican.  And if Joe is serious about being everyone's president, he needs to start talking to everyone. 

**************

I'm also horrified by the celebrations.  It's great that people are happy, but in two weeks, it'll be Thanksgiving.  Then Christmas.  It's still flu season.  We need to be much smarter than this.

1,656 (edited by ireactions 2020-11-08 11:39:03)

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Slider_Quinn21 wrote:

And since we gave everyone the right to vote, they get to make their own decisions.

True. But when someone acts to take away other people's votes, they no longer have the right have their decisions go unremarked upon.

As a rule, I don't criticize people for how they chose to participate in a (somewhat) fair and (nominally) free election. People have the right to go unjudged as good or bad for how they voted so that everyone can feel free to vote. And candidates must earn votes. Temporal Flux said he was probably going to write in his father's name because TF believes in term limits. Joe Biden has been in government since 1973. If Biden didn't convince TF to waive that stipulation, then Biden didn't earn his vote. Transmodiar said that Biden didn't reflect his values; if Biden couldn't make a case for Transmodiar to feel otherwise, then Biden didn't earn Transmodiar's vote either and Transmodiar was right to write in Andrew Yang.

And I totally understand why people voted for Trump in 2016. Government had ignored their desperation and suffering; Hillary Clinton was a Wall Street creature; Slider_Quinn21 and Informant were both appalled by her which is bipartisanship at is clearest -- I see why people who felt abandoned by government voted for Trump four years ago and wouldn't judge anyone for it.

However, anyone who voted for Donald Trump in 2020 voted in favour of not having a fair and free election but instead in support of a lifetime appointment for their cult leader. Trump voters supported a deranged authoritarian who declared for months that any votes for other candidates were illegal. Trump voters supported the view that any votes that weren't for Trump should not be counted. And Trump voters now are demanding that the election results be overturned.

Trump voters have lost the right to go uncriticized for how they voted in a (supposedly) equal election because they attacked the voting rights of others and 'voted' to not have an election at all.

Slider_Quinn21 wrote:

Just like people can put aside JK Rowling's issues and still like Harry Potter.

I will never put another penny in Rowling's pocket. But I still have her books on my shelf. And Harry Potter has simply left his creator behind at this point; he's so entrenched in the cultural consciousness that Rowling's existence has become irrelevant to Harry's place in the hearts and minds of his fans. Fans of Harry Potter (and I am one) need no longer be fans of JK Rowling. To quote a great American quoting a Frenchman, "Death of the author, good sir!" At some point, we separate the art from the artist -- not to justify supporting them, but to appreciate what we got out of them before even if we won't be going back to that well for anything new.

Slider_Quinn21 wrote:

If Trump fully supported BLM and was doing work on police reform and knelt during the national anthem at the Super Bowl alongside black players.  If everything about Trump was the same, but his politics were flipped....would everything else be flipped?  Would liberals swallow their opinions of Trump and vote for him because the ends justify the means?

All those ends are achieved through means that require seeing government as public service.

When Trump had clearly won the election in 2016, Obama contacted Hillary Clinton. "You need to concede," he told her. He didn't encourage her to falsely claim fraud and file lawsuits or declare a victory she hadn't won. When Trump was declared president-elect, the Obama administration committed fully to the transition, providing all documents and details and opening themselves ully to the incoming team.

Obama encouraged Trump to keep Obamacare but change the name to take credit for it. The Obama administration also provided a pandemic playbook and training for a viral contagion. Obama and Hillary claim they both offered to give Trump any advice and while it's fair to question the sincerity of that, the Obama administration's determined handover to the Trump administration indicates it was at least genuine from Obama.

Biden will not be getting that graciousness from the Trump team because Trump doesn't consider the presidency a public office, but a personal one for his own benefit. For attention and acclaim and notoriety and to prop up his failing businesses.

Biden may have to have the Secret Service drag Trump out of the Oval Office by his hair.

Slider_Quinn21 wrote:

I'm also horrified by the celebrations.  It's great that people are happy, but in two weeks, it'll be Thanksgiving.  Then Christmas.  It's still flu season.  We need to be much smarter than this.

The celebrations show that stupidity and denial is not unique to Biden or Trump voters. There are plenty of fine morons on both sides.

Slider_Quinn21 wrote:

I don't think Americans are evil.  I agree with TF - I think most people don't think about politics that much.  I think some think about it too much, and I think those people need to ease up.  And I think Twitter becomes a furnace for these kinds of people.  But I see the same kind of things happen with sports on twitter so I don't necessarily think it's only politics.  When you isolate yourself with people who think like you, it's easy to think everyone thinks like you.

I am going to defer to your judgement and TF's on this one. I'm shaky and unsure -- but at the end of the day, even if I have lost (some) trust in Americans, I haven't lost any trust in any of you.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

They're not evil.  Trump is himself not evil, he's just a jerk off.  As I've said from day one, he's a lifelong crook with no morals or inhibitions on many things.  People looked past that for tribalism.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

The layers of amusement to this location choice are just astounding:

https://bleedingcool.com/tv/its-always- … r-seasons/

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

ireactions wrote:

My God! I just saw that footage of Biden supporters not distancing and sharing drink containers. I'm horrified. I understand euphoria, but that's just suicidal and deranged. I've written a message to Biden pleading for him to tell his constituents to stay apart and I guess we'll see if he's still doing whatever I ask him to do in my mail.


My iron grip on Joe Biden's decision-making remains intact, mostly because I write him letters begging him to do what he was going to do anyway.

Joe Biden wrote:

As I’ve said throughout this campaign, I will be a president for every American. This election is over. It’s time to put aside the partisanship and the rhetoric that designed to demonize one another. It’s time to end the politicization of basic responsible public health steps like mask wearing and social distancing.

We have to come together to heal the soul of this country so that we can effectively address this crisis, as one country, where hardworking Americans have each other’s backs. And where we’re united in our shared goal, defeating this virus.

As we work toward a safe and effective vaccine, we know that the single most effective thing we can do to stop the spread of COVID is wear a mask.

The head of the CDC warned this fall, that for the foreseeable future, a mask remains the most potent weapon against the virus. Today’s news does not change that urgent reality. I won’t be president until January 20, but my message today is to everyone, is this:

It doesn’t matter who you voted for, where you stood before Election Day. It doesn’t matter your party, your point of view -- we can save tens of thousands of lives if everyone would just wear a mask for the next few months. Not Democrat or Republican lives. American lives.

Maybe we’d save a life of a person who stocks the shelf at your local grocery store. Maybe saves the life of a member of your place of worship. Maybe saves the lives of one of your children’s teachers. Maybe saves your life.

So please, I implore you, wear a mask, do it for yourself, do it for your neighbor. A mask is not a political statement, but it is a good way to start pulling the country together. I want to be very clear, the goal of mask wearing is not to make your life less comfortable or take something away from you.

It’s to give something back to all of us, a normal life. The goal is to get back to normal as fast as possible and masks are critical in doing that. It won’t be forever, but that’s how we’ll get our nation back, back up to speed economically. So we can go back to celebrating birthdays and holidays together. So we can attend sporting events together. So we can get back to the lives and connections we shared before the pandemic.

It doesn’t matter whether or not we always agree with one another. It doesn’t matter who you voted for.

We are Americans and our country is under threat. We’re now called to do the same thing that generations of proud Americans have done when faced with a crisis throughout our history. Rise above our differences to defend the strength and the vitality of our nation. That’s the character of patriots. That’s the character of America.

We have to do this together.

Wearing a mask seems like a small act. Maybe you think your individual choice won’t make any difference. Throughout our history, throughout the history of our nation, we’ve seen over and over how small acts add up to enormous achievements. It’s the weight of many small acts together that bend the arc of history.

I know there’s nothing that the American people can’t accomplish when we work together, as one people, with one mission. We can get this virus under control, I promise you. We can rebuild our economy back better than it was before. We can address race based disparities that damage our country. It’s in our power.

So let’s wear a mask. Let’s get to work.

Thank you. May God bless you. And for all those who have lost somebody, our heart goes out to you. We know what it’s like. Our heart goes out to you. May God protect our healthcare workers and all Americans. Thank you.

https://www.rev.com/blog/transcripts/jo … wear-masks

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

These are just layups at this point, "a trainee and two chimpanzee's could fly her."  Trump was incapable of this.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Is anyone out there tracking what sort of lawsuits the Trump campaign is filing and which ones have been denied already?

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Time has a list: https://time.com/5908505/trump-lawsuits-biden-wins/

Slate says that Trump's lawsuits are silly, sad and totally pointless, likely just being filed because it allows Trump's staff to do some busy work to assuage the boss' demands while waiting out the last 10 weeks of the Trump administration. I hear the last days of the Hitler household were much like this. 
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/202 … y-sad.html

I hope the Secret Service ends up dragging Trump out from under the Resolute Desk on live TV.

1,663 (edited by Slider_Quinn21 2020-11-10 08:06:25)

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Okay, reading all that made me feel better.

I also looked up Informant's twitter.  That made me feel worse.

********

So now the only real threat to Biden is faithless electors.  But there hasn't been any legit concern about that - yet.  I'm assuming it'll ratchet up a bit in December.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Slider_Quinn21 wrote:

Okay, reading all that made me feel better.

I also looked up Informant's twitter.  That made me feel worse.

********

So now the only real threat to Biden is faithless electors.  But there hasn't been any legit concern about that - yet.  I'm assuming it'll ratchet up a bit in December.

Also the Supreme Court unanimously ruled that faithless electors are illegal this summer in Chiafalo vs Washington

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Rob, you don't need to read Informant's Twitter. I don't need to read Informant's Twitter. I kept reading it because I care about him. I rant about him because I am hurt by him. But the only way anyone can hurt me with typing is because I have given them permission to hurt me.

I would never have expected him to become what he has; I'd expect him to be more concerned with being a loyal American than being a loyal conservative. But I am going to stop reading his social media. And I am going to stop talking about him as well. The election is over. And the pointless lawsuits from Trump are a waste of time and only to draw funds to pay off his campaign debts. I am still angry at anyone who voted for Trump, effectively voting to not have voting anymore. But I agree with Joe Biden that it is time to set that aside and focus on rebuilding our extremely broken world.

Nothing Informant says on Twitter takes away from all the wonderful things he did for SLIDERS and fans of SLIDERS. No vote Informant casts changes the fact that he was our friend: he worked on the SLIDERS REDUX with us, he gifted us with his companionship and perspective and friendship during FRINGE and the X-FILES revival and the Arrowverse and the DC Extended Universe. He stuck with SLIDERS long after most people had sensibly found another show and fandom. Fandom brought out the very best parts of Informant: his most generous, his most open-hearted and we were very fortunate to have the time we did with him.

I often think that writing fiction and caring about fiction will reveal who we really are; the unfortunate fact is that some writers will produce material that reveals a great compassion and love for humanity, but ultimately choose to live life as their most caustic, abrasive, antagonistic selves when they could be better than that.

I don't pray much, but when COVID hit the states, I knew before even reading Informant's Twitter that he would not wear a mask and I prayed for him and begged God to spare Informant when Informant wouldn't spare himself. I will pray for him again. Not for who he is now, but who he was when we knew him, who he chose to be for the bulk of his time with us. And I will pray that he finds his way back to that. The election is over, Donald Trump is done, Informant was our friend, he will always be our friend.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

ireactions wrote:

Are Americans... evil?

i've stopped believing on the inherent goodness in people.  it's not inevitable.  culture is fragile.  groups of people can go down bad paths.  ultimately, at a certain point, after a certain period of time, everybody is responsible for what they go along with.

we can have stark policy differences but there has to be a baseline set of core values that we adhere to. 

it's OK to be disappointed.  most of us are.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

If we don't believe in inherent goodness, then we also don't need to believe in inherent evil. The truth is that people have the capacity for both and most will choose themselves. Sometimes, they will do so in a nearsighted, short-term sense that benefits them in immediacy but is catastrophic longterm. Sometimes, they will choose themselves by seeing that what benefits everyone is in their favour as well.

**

I sense that Slider_Quinn21 is frightened and afraid that Trump will sue his way into a second term. He cannot. Even if he overturned a state or two, it wouldn't get him to 270 votes. Even if he got currently uncounted mall-in ballots tossed, he wouldn't get more electoral votes than Biden. Republican run state legislatures have decided that they don't believe in alternate electors against the results of an election. The Department of Justice's call to investigate voter fraud specifies that the fraud must be significant enough to have actually altered results, and none of Trump's accusations in court would qualify. They're all small, petty, nuisance lawsuits and small, petty paperwork to briefly placate a small, petty man.

There is a danger that Biden will be treated by a not-small portion of the electorate as illegitimate because their cult leader said so. There is a danger that future elections will be contested in court by a more competent authoritarian who can tell the difference between a hotel and a landscaping company. But Trump has lost and clearly cannot process it and Republicans, not wanting to alienate Trump's voters, are humouring him even when these efforts will change nothing. Joe Biden is president-elect. No amount of whining, recounting and legal wrangling will change it.

I'd worry about Georgia runoffs. I'd worry about Biden being unable to pass any worthwhile legislation if Mitch McConnell holds the Senate. I'd worry about anti-vaxxers. I'd worry about Trumpism. I'd worry about how Trump will use his last days, although if he's distracted by pointless lawsuits, all the better. But Trump is done. And if he wants to run in 2024, he may have to do it from a jail cell as he is soon to lose his immunity to prosecution for financial crimes, tax fraud, assault; he is most definitely facing another bankruptcy; and there may be a case to charge him with negligent homicide.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

The only question pending that could have some teeth are concerns about the Dominion Voting System.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/rumor … ud-claims/

As shown at the link, the allegations don’t have traction yet, but that could change giving us a “Man of the Year” situation.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Man_of_ … 2006_film)

Nothing is impossible, but I do think overturning the election is very improbable.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Trump is outta here in January, trust me.  The bigger issue is that he's moved to railroad the transition to Biden, plus having agencies waste their time with Trump-backed budget plans they'll never use.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

ireactions wrote:

I sense that Slider_Quinn21 is frightened and afraid that Trump will sue his way into a second term.

Oh, not at all.  I'm no legal expert, but I've read more than enough people who are say that the lawsuits are a waste of time.  It's placating Trump, it's following orders, and at the end of the day, it will mean nothing.  I'd still like to have an active tracker of which lawsuits are ongoing and which have been denied.  Just for my own amusement.

What I am concerned about is what in the hell the Republicans are doing.  When Mike Pompeo says that there will be a transition to a second Trump administration, I really don't care.  He's a Trump employee, and if Trump doesn't win, he loses his job and all the perks that come with it.  He's hoping for a second Trump term because it benefits him.

What confuses me is why other Republicans are going through with all this.  I can kinda see how McConnell is doing it - he's the face of the Republican Party besides Trump, and if he doesn't toe the line, he's going to spend his whole day fielding angry calls from Trump.  So even if professionally he knows he needs to say the right thing, I can forgive him if he's just trying to make sure he can still get through the day.

But why are other Republicans going along with this?  Why is my asshole senator, Ted Cruz, *STILL* working for the guy who called his wife ugly and said his dad was part of the Kennedy assassination?  Why is Lindsey Graham allowing talk of voter fraud when he won an election *this year*?  Is this what they're going to be doing for the next four years?  Because when you hear the rationales, some of them make sense:

- Keep Trump happy until he's officially gone
- Keep the focus on the election so that republicans can stay focused on the Georgia runoff so they can keep the house
- Fundraising

Which all make sense - but they don't have to say anything, and all those things still happen.  Trump can still fundraise, at least one of the Republicans is almost guaranteed to win, and none of them need Trump in the next 70 days.

Either way, when it's over, we need everyone not named Trump to come out and say "we did a full audit - the election was done correctly - our democracy is secure" - that's the only way we move forward.  But that means Graham and Cruz are going to have to walk back their statements.  And the fact that they made the statements at all means a) they believe this crap or b) they knew it was wrong and said it anyway.  And both of those are terrible and dangerous.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

The Hail Mary:

https://www.axios.com/trump-electoral-c … e5149.html

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Yeah and if the Hail Mary happens, elections are essentially over.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Blocking certification would require court orders.  The courts have so far unanimously batted away all lawsuits the Trump camp have filed.  70-80% of Americans, by poll, agree that Biden is the next President.  Once again, it's Trump first, he's just trying to keep his fandom revved up and prove he's no loser (though he is a BIG one).

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

I'm glad Slider_Quinn21 isn't worried about Trump flipping the results of the election because that frees ME up to worry.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Last night, I stumbled on this guy's feed:

https://twitter.com/greg_doucette?ref_s … r%5Eauthor

He was talking about how the Hail Mary hits a roadblock - even if Trump gets the results delayed, the matter goes to Congress, and the way they do it is the key.  They do it separately - so if Trump tries the Hail Mary, the Senate and House retreat to their separate chambers and come up with a solution.  And while the Republicans would move quickly in the Senate, there's literally nothing they can do about the House.  They could simply play bridge in the chamber for a month and then when 1/20 hits, Trump's term ends whether they have a solution or not. 

And this is where it got sorta interesting to me.  Everyone mentions this is where Pelosi becomes president, but they wouldn't have to vote Pelosi in as Speaker of the House.  Apparently you don't even have to *be* in the House to be Speaker of the House.  So if the Democrats are worried about this, they would just vote in Biden as Speaker, and if the Republicans try it, he becomes acting president when January 20th happens.  There'd be no difference between Biden as president or acting president, and then they could either stalemate it or the Republicans would just give in.

I have no idea if any of that is true, but his arguments were smarter than anything I could come up with.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

I think the more Trump focuses on his pointless lawsuits, the less time he has for governing and screwing up America.

That said, he is also laying the groundwork for a future authoritarian dictator to use the same playbook to steal an election but with more competence than Trump possesses.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

ireactions wrote:

I think the more Trump focuses on his pointless lawsuits, the less time he has for governing and screwing up America.

Well that's the thing.  Other than the attention and inability to be prosecuted, what is Trump wanting out of the job?  It's been a week and he's done *nothing*.  I don't remember who I'm quoting, but he seems to be doing everything he can to keep a job he doesn't even want.

That said, he is also laying the groundwork for a future authoritarian dictator to use the same playbook to steal an election but with more competence than Trump possesses.

This is my real fear.  I guess the good news is that such a person isn't really on the horizon.  If Trump is truly talking about 2024, then I think he's almost certainly the nominee.  No Republican has stood up to him yet, and I don't think anyone will between now and then.  If Trump runs again in 2024, then I think he'll do everything he can between now and 2028 to set up Don Jr. and Ivanka to run in 2028. 

None of Trump's kids are capable of anything like their father so I'd think we're at least 2032 before there's anyone who can follow in Trump's footsteps.  Hopefully 12 years down the line, we'll have the US in a more secure place.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

The lawsuits are just another way for him to fleece his supporters.  All the money donated to the "recount fund" goes to either retiring Trump's campaign debt or to his "leadership" PAC (which is legally prohibited from funding recounts or challenges to the vote tally).  That's why he and his people always urge people to donate when they're talking about legal challenges.  All that money goes right into his pocket.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Yeah they say 60% of it goes to pay off campaign debt, but from what I read, anything under $8000 they can do whatever they want with.

I'm wondering if they have to legally pay the money back if they don't do the recount in Wisconsin.  It feels weird for Trump to pay $3.5 million to do a pointless recount if he can just pocket it.  I wonder if he'll concede right around then and just walk away with all that money.

In other news, Trump is hinting that he may not even come to these Stop the Steal rallies.  If he won't even come to a lovefest rally, we know he's in terrible shape emotionally.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

The lawsuits are done, more or less, and lawyers have been quitting on him.  There is not likely to even be many recounts.  His final avenue is this ridiculous idea that state legislatures will circumvent the popular vote, not happening.  Supposedly he will finally "concede" while simultaneously announce he's running again in 2024.