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It's all about his ego, yes, he needs to be given his daily affirmation of worth.  He's THAT insecure.

I've enjoyed the first few since the show returned.

I feel like all of these "models" behave as if I were to say it's going to snow in Syracuse, NY, in the last week of January.  The other thing is, they ALL have been wrong on occasion.  This campaign features an incumbent well under water on favorability, approval, with independents, I could go on and on.  There's a pandemic, his approval on handling it is horrendous.  Have these models faced this kind of hurricane before?  There's no way, maybe during the Depression, which none of these models go back to usually.

PS: On tonight's town hall's, Trump mainly argued with the host, while Biden kind of gave run on answers.  I did think Biden hit on a number of good ones, such as Trump's use of the Justice Dept as his personal law firm.  Most notable from Trump's was his babbling refusal to disavow Q-Anon.

PS 2: I saw a clip from a debate tonight in Iowa, for the Senate seat.  Joni Ernst apparently doesn't know the current commodity prices on crops!!!  The Dem Theresa Greenfield got them correct.  This is Iowa after all.

I mailed the ballot in a few weeks ago. 

https://www.investors.com/news/biden-vs … tion-poll/

IBD/TIPP predicted Trump win in 2016, now say he's doomed.

As for the election night, it's likely many states like Wisconsin or Pennsylvania will not be close to done counting.  However, Arizona, Ohio, Florida, Texas probably will.  Even if they are super close or Trump narrowly prevails in say Ohio, you can make demographic/exit poll comparisons to the slower states.

God Forbid if your family reminded you of Trump!

Besides the fly on Pence's head, the story was women felt Harris won 70/30, while men were split.  It's really telling and you can easily see how those numbers are very very close to the national polls seeing a split with men, and historic gap between the two with females.

Trump is promoting https://www.armyfortrump.com/ which is a ridiculous moniker.  It's nothing but voter intimidation squads.  And yes, we already have a fucking Army in this county.  It's called the United States Army.

The White House is in total turmoil, the worst since probably when Reagan was shot.  You have Mark Meadows supposedly lying to reporters, and Trump is furious with him.  There are reports Trump and the SECRETARY OF DEFENSE Mark Esper have not spoken to each other in MONTHS!  MONTHS!!!  Likely since Esper threw him under the bus for the upside down Bible photo op.  Meanwhile the Vice President Mike Pence is NOT quarantining, traveling around the country doing campaigning, and intends to do a debate in Utah.  There's not a shred of common sense among them.  Pelosi continues to pass CV relief packages that McConnell won't even debate on the floor.

28 positive WH-orbit #COVID19 cases

Donald Trump
Melania Trump
Kayleigh McEnany
Hope Hicks
Kellyanne Conway
Chris Christie
Sen Mike Lee
Sen Thom Tillis
Sen Ron Johnson
Ronna McDaniel
John Jenkins
Bill Stepien
Nick Luna
1x WH jr staffer
3x reporters
11x Ohio debate staff

Well today Trump, who is taking 45 different drugs, including a steroid that makes you loopy, forced Secret Service to drive him outside to wave to his supporters and the Proud boys outside the hospital.  Unbelievably insane.  It's just nonstop at this point. 

Latest post-debate polling is awful for Trump, losing by 14.  Down TWENTY SEVEN with seniors!  At this rate, he's headed for a Reagan blowout of Carter 1980.

Well the only shot Romney had in 2012 was if Obama was swept away IN that hurricane!  One, obviously me LOL, could argue the ghost of RBG has haunted Trump and most of his White house and campaign staff.  2016 if any one thing put him over the top it was Jim Comey's October non-surprise surprise that doomed Hillary. 

As for this moment, look, it's been 7 months we've been dealing with COVID-19.  Public perception on who they trust (anybody but Trump), and measures they wish to be taken (the opposite of Trump's) have not changed.  We're talking 60-70% agreement which includes a decent slice of Republicans.  Is his recovery going to suddenly convince tens of millions of people that he was RIGHT all along?  I cannot fathom that, as TF you say, they done screwed up, again. 

To use another hurricane analogy, Trump is the old couple who refused to evacuate when the state told them to, and the National Guard had to go in and rescue them.  Religious or not, rich or poor, black or white, people recognize a dummy when they see one.  Trump would have to return to the campaign trail, and behave.  They'd have to conduct at least one more debate, where he'd have to behave.  Can he do this?  Moreover, will he WANT to do this?  I think no.

PS: The latest Q Anon-fueled idioacy is that Trump was targeted with the virus!!!  I mean, ROFL ROFL.

Up to 6 people who attended the Amy Coney Barrett thing last Saturday test positive.  Curse of The Notorious RBG?

Seth is not terribly fond of acting, so I'm not surprised by the news.

Well turning off voters is not "great" for Biden though it's disastrous for Trump if the polls are 1/2 accurate.  As I said many times, Trump really has nothing but disgust for most of America, always has.  Given it won't vote for him, he's REALLY disgusted!  That's without even bringing up Putin.  There's been a steady stream of former Trump White House (particularly National Security and health) officials announcing their support of Biden. 

He's being outspent everywhere, really laughably at this point.  Republican Senate candidates are flailing, many now being outraised and spent by formerly unknown Dems big time.  One has to imagine the October stampede from the GOP to confirm Barrett will only pour fuel on the fire.  This happens every election, people have mostly made their minds up, and what you get is this period in October where they largely decide to vote.  In 2016, the hesitation was on Trump, was he a legitimate choice?  James Comey largely helped them to say yes.  This time around, all the doubt is on Trump, people are incredibly sick of his antics.  I only hope that it results in this mass disavowing of Trump, and the polls wind up being trounced by 3-4 points all over the place by this anti-Trump fever.

He's not dropping out.  He's petrified about January 21, 2021.  He'll be served up to the Manhattan DA and New York Attorney General on tax evasion and other fraudulent Trump Org business dealings.  Possibly even the Southern District federal prosecutors (if he's not pardoned) on the Stormy Daniels fraud.  He'll be open to the creditors who shall be calling his 400 million dollars in loans, for which he has no way to pay.  Bankruptcy, selling off assets, etc., is all in his future.  He and his family are screwed when he loses. 

I've read that Fox News has been quite anxious about Trump losing simply because they don't want him to start a competing network.  The reality is that won't happen.  Trump has no money to do that.  At best maybe he would be given a platform on OANN, though their reach is small and production quality is laughable. 

The mistake during the debate was not bringing up the taxes AND Trump's pathetically bad business record.  That NYT article was the worst thing that's likely happened to him as President.  He is exponentially insecure, especially when to comes to his finances, and those revelations absolutely igniting Trump.  May well have been a big reason he was a lunatic last night.  The second thing he HATES is being called dumb, because he is.  When Biden said his approach to COVID had to be smarter, Trump did a literal "WHAT DID YOU CALL ME??"  Then proceeded to have a meltdown about being questioned if he's smart.  If I'm Biden, I spend the next 2 debates questioning his business losses and intelligence.

Trump's strategy at this point is to stop voting.  Delay the mail, suppress the vote via GOP Governors, mail ballots are fraud, not counting after Nov. 3rd.  And now last night.  He does not want people to vote.  This is what autocrats do, the ones who then claim they won a "vote" by 90 points, because the populace is too afraid to vote.  All we can hope is that he is in fact defeated, because I truly cannot imagine what this maniac will do if given another 4 years.

Well like I said, the oddball write-offs may seem innocuous but plenty of people have been hit with big time fines/bills from the IRS for them.  Will that happen with him in office is another story. 

To me the bigger story is the fact that his accountants didn't simply write-off these massive losses for tax evasion.  Nope, Trump had in fact LOST hundreds of millions of dollars on incredibly moronic investments.  He spent 100's of millions on golf courses to feed his ego, but they don't make much money.  He has hundreds of millions in loans that are coming due within the next few years.  How is this idiot paying them?  From what?  His businesses lose money like a waterfall. 

While he's still President, it's unlikely the IRS, or more importantly, his creditors will come after him.  And then you see why he's willing to lie, cheat, and steal this election.

I'd rather not think about a looming street war that might be on the horizon.  Trump's campaign cannot legally procure state legislatures to "ignore" the popular vote and draft electors as they see fit.  The Constitution DID allow this, but EVERY state and D.C. have laws on the books to prohibit such a farce.  They would have to draft new legislation and get the governors to sign it, and good luck on any of that happening.  Specifically Pennsylvania, no shot.  Trump's plan is to declare victory on November 3, and then start screaming about throwing out ballots that haven't been counted yet.  Again, good luck with that initiative because there's very few elected officials (even GOP) who are anxious to get into that fight.

I'm just not sure that Democrats have the support internally to upend the system.  Adding justices, I do not see that as incredibly likely.  Passing D.C. statehood to expand the Senate I'd assume may be on the table though. 

Anyhow, Murkowski and Collins have said no confirmation vote before the election.  Presuming if there is a vote, and those two vote against, which is not assured, you'd need two more Senators to say the same thing and Mitch is stopped.  The putrid hypocrisy from Lindsay Graham or Marco Rubio on this topic is obvious, having defended the election year BS re:Merrick Garland 4 years ago. 

I'm not betting on anything at this point.  I think both Republican Senators and Trump are going to question whether McConnell's rush job will have significant effects on November 3rd.  I do feel that if they do not have the confirmation before it, the amount of backlash during a lame duck may well be even worse.

Sabrina approves!

There it is for posterity!  This is likely the first time they've been together since 1997-1998.

Actually Jerry recently mentioned in an interview that Peacock views might be the key, but that he was going to be trying to get in touch with everyone again.  He owes JRD a call back.

https://screenrant.com/ballbuster-movie … interview/

The national polls are exactly where they were pre-COVID, with Biden up at least 7 points, which is a deficit well beyond the Trump "silent majority" and would make even an electoral college win for Don statistically impossible.  This does not of course rule out rampant cheating on the Trump campaign's part, though honestly how much affect could that have?

Trump spoke to Woodward because he was annoyed by his last book.  Remember Trump is OBSESSED with mainstream press, and how they write/talk about him.  He reads newspapers constantly, to see exactly what they write, he is morbidly insecure.  He decided, since he IS a stable genius, that if he were allowed to have input on a new book, it would come out far better.  He truly believed he would simply talk, Bob would listen, and write it all down verbatim.  Which as we know, is exactly what happened, except that, Trump was the one doing the talking!  He just simply does not believe what he says is wrong, even though, as the tapes prove, Trump knows he is lying.  It disproves the trope that DJT is so stupid that he fouls up at every opportunity.  No, in fact, he has purposely lied and misled from the pulpit every chance he's had. 

The ABC Town Hall, which at the end of the day, I doubt many will actually have seen, since anything Trump does has shitty ratings.  That being said, his backers often praise him for appearing before "critics" only to be made a fool of.  They then retreat to the Fox News mini-universe where nothing is wrong and all is good.  His campaign agreed with the suggestion that he do a FOUR HOUR podcast debate with Biden hosted by Joe Rogan.  Can anyone imagine the nonsense he'd spew for that long?

Well this thread has certainly been EYE OPENING lately. 

Matt hope you're "in the clear" without obviously "going clear."

Well, the Woodward book excerpts get worse and worse.  Trump lied to the American public in February about COVID-19 "to prevent a panic" yet he's spent the last 2 months throwing gasoline on protests to induce exactly that in suburban voters.

Meanwhile, looks like Fire Within World has come to San Fran....

Well the latest (to no one's surprise) for Trump is that he's referred to American soldiers and war dead as losers and suckers.  At this point, I'm not sure how people cannot still be swayed to vote for this piece of garbage, but there you go.

It's already inflated to hell.  Food prices are astronomical.  Our electric bill is through the room.  USPS package rates have hit the roof.  Property taxes going up, up up, all thanks to COVID-19.

Like the Kayne West campagin, I'm sure the skinhead Spencer endorsement was another offshoot of the Trump "win at all costs" campaign.

DeJoy is not going to budge.  Some union workers are reinstalling sorting machines anyway, while others cannot because they've found critical parts damaged or missing!

What were thoughts on the DNC?  I felt they did a good job highlighting real people and having them speak rather than just the pols we don't want to hear from.  Additionally, Biden and Harris presented strong, focused speeches that blew a cannon ball through the Trump claim that Joe is an invalid in adult diapers.

The lawsuits and Congressional actions are still on the table, as none of them are taking DeJoy's word for it. 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/18/politics … index.html

Further, the bipartisan Senate panel finally released the Russia investigation report, which found that Donald Trump's underling Roger Stone DID conspire with Julian Assange/Wikileaks to release the stolen (by Russia) John Podesta emails the night of the release of the Access Hollywood tape.  Trump lied about having nothing to do with this.

It also concluded that Paul Manafort was a counterintelligence threat who was working with a Russian handler of sorts.

I've finished the series.  Overall I was not a huge fan of season 7.  I think the story was mucky and disjointed, and honestly could have been told in 3 or 4 episodes rather than 13.  The finale was I would say a very satisfying conclusion, very much in the way that long series used to be concluded in the 90's.  It was a marvelous series that I shall miss dearly.

One number to keep in mind is black voter turnout, which was 5-6% higher for Obama than Kerry or Clinton, who both lost.  In Wisconsin in 2016, the turnout was like 20 points lower, which doomed Hillary.  So between Biden and Harris, you'd figure those voters will be voting, not to mention how badly Trump disgusts them.