Trump is seriously effed by the recent financial judgements against. I imagine AG James will be seizing assets in the near future. Once the court in NY completes it's official filing, which keeps being put off, because the independent observer continues to find Trump Org corruption, the clock will start ticking. He has 30 days to file an appeal. He won't ever pay, so there will be a protracted legal fight over those assets.
More troubling for Don, and even worse for GOP, are the RNC's finances. RNC and Trump PAC's are barely raising any money, and the January reports are horrendous. His PACs are diverting every last dollar to his legal bills. The perceived power play that seeks to replace Ronna McDaniel with Lara Trump, is specifically to directly move RNC funds to Trump's lawyers! This not only shows how awful his campaign is going to be financed, but it's a further disaster for Republicans nationwide.
As for Nikki, like SQ21, not a fan overall, but the biggest HA HA remains that she would likely beat Biden, and yet MAGA is too cultish and stupid to get that through their heads. Would her policies stink? Of course, but as I've said in the past, I can SLEEP AT NIGHT with a President Haley. First of all, she is vehemently anti-Putin and pro-Ukraine. Her husband is an active duty commander, as well. Haley's plans seem to be to stay in the race all the way, and why not? She's being backed by both GOP sources, Never Trumpers, and even Democrats, all desperate to weaken Trump. Nikki will gain some delegates, and should Trump be a raging disaster by summer, maybe she can be in position at the convention....
It was just reported, as I'm sure many knew, that the Impeachment of Biden based on the Hunter trash, was led by a now twice arrested, Russian agent, who the FBI has announced lied to them about everything. Will Mike Johnson continue to embarrass his party by proceeding? Fools!!!
Today in fact, it was also reported that a MAGICIAN admitted to created the fake Biden robocalls in New Hampshire. Who he says paid him? An operative for the dufus Dean Phillips, one of two Democratic primary opponents. Dean Phillips was already a joke, and this seals it.
Recently, Rajin' Cajun James Carville put out a video whereby he says the time for questioning Joe Biden as the nominee is over, and Democrats should be fighting for him, instead of afraid of him. I think a big part of that was a series of polls released recently that show that several perceived "replacments" from Kamala Harris to Gavin Newsome to whoever currently poll worse or the same as Biden. While much of that is due to their NOT being the nominee, I mostly agree with him. However, I remain on pins and needles that Biden, who maintains a robust schedule far from a golf course, can have the vigor for the actual campaign to come in the late summer and fall.
Lastly, I saw a podcast on Meidas Touch with long time Dem strategist Simon Roseberg, who remains unwavering in his belief that Biden will not only win, but win BIG. Besides the President's achievements, Simon's primary evidence are election results, particularly from 2022 forward. It's true, Democrats continue to outperform skeptics, and the Dobbs decision has been a big reason. This Alabama IVF insane ruling only further damages Republicans. The podcast was boring but I would invite a read of his blog. Simon is not some rah rah homer, he's been very good at predicting and whatnot.
https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/trum … winning-no
Now about those polls? Recently the Detroit Free Press released one that found that a clear majority in Michigan believe Trump is GUILTY of felony in just the Jan 6th case, which is yet to begin. And yet, he's safely ahead of Biden in the same poll? This makes little to no sense. Rosenberg believes that Biden is sagging partially because Democrats have no true primary, and that at some point, the "coalition" will again reveal itself. I HOPE SO!
One thing is for sure, polling is broken, badly. I also saw a recent interview with Larry Sabato, LONG time pollster. Larry said you can't count on any of it. Used to rely on polling averages, but there's so many trash Republican fed polls in those, and the websites won't exclude them. Simon mentions this also. Furthermore, who are the samples taken from? A lot come from land lines, a technology far more popular with older folks, who in turn are more likely to favor Trump. Attempting to source cell phones and other online methods are haphazard and costly. What I would agree with is that Trump seems to definitely have a ceiling around 46-48% nationally and in several states. Even in the "friendly" polls to him. Biden trails by a few, but you have often 10+ point undecided, which is quite a lot. Obviously the hope is, as it happened in NY-3 special, that most of those go against Trump/for Biden. The presence of a third party spoiler is now my greatest fear moving forward.