Nate Silver wrote a story the other day about how this election should really be a layup for Trump. Biden is deeply unpopular, the economy is good in certain ways but very bad in other ways (mostly around prices), and it's an election where people are looking for a new candidate. If the Republicans had nominated someone like DeSantis or even someone like Ted Cruz, they would probably be winning fairly handily vs Biden or Harris.
The problem is that the Republicans nominated Trump. Not only someone who is deeply unpopular himself but someone who unites the Democratic coalition in a way that no one else does. There's a chance that if the Republicans had selected Nikki Haley, for example, that women wouldn't be overwhelmingly supporting Harris even in the abortion environment we find ourselves in.
Then not only did Trump get nominated, he's made a number of mistakes. Selecting Vance was a mistake when he clearly needed to select a woman. He's made no effort to engage or attract middle of the road voters, leaving them susceptible to attraction to Harris. He's shored up the base, for sure, but he hasn't stopped. He appears almost never on any sort of mainstream media, opting exclusively for right-leaning/friendly media (unless the mainstream media is covering an event he's doing).
Now we can argue all day about Nate Silver and what he represents (I've certainly soured on him), but I do think he makes a good point. I think inflation alone made this a very difficult election for Biden or Harris. Prices are higher and even though it's not their fault and it's not a problem that will go away regardless of who wins the election, people are looking for a change at the top. People that voted for Biden as a change are now considering voting for Trump for another change. People that remember 2019 prices think that going back to Trump will go back to 2019 prices. That's a thing that's happening and nothing positive that Harris does or something negative that Trump does is going to change their minds.
But Trump has left an opening, and it's Harris' job to drive right through it.
I did find myself sad for Trump supporters last night. There was a question that an older woman in Michigan asked Trump in a town hall, and she basically sobbed through the idea that prices needed to come down and asked Trump for his plan. And his answer, of course, was nonsensical, but his plan is basically to try and reduce the cost of energy and hope that solves all his problems. His plan is to raise tariffs and assumes that American manufacturing can absorb all the new demand in every sector.
And I felt bad for the woman. She trusts this man explicitly, and he has no plan. Barely, as he would say, the concepts of a plan. Is there a chance that tariffs will increase American manufacturing? Sure. Will it happen in time and in every sector? I doubt it. Will drilling so much that the cost of gasoline goes down help with all prices? I can't imagine. And it will never go back down to 2019 prices just like 2019 prices were never going to go down to 2015 prices.
Now, in a wild attempt to convince voters, he's talking about how he's going to massively reduce home insurance costs. He didn't elaborate, of course, but people are going to believe him. And if he wins, they're going to expect him to follow through on his promises. And he's just not going to be able to. Either he's going to do nothing to help them, or he's going to actively make things worse.
And people are struggling. The problem is that Donald Trump has zero regard for them, and he wouldn't help them if he could. He'll help them if it also helps him, but that's about where it ends.
To me, his base is an abused wife that stays with him even though he's constantly abusive. He cheats on her, and he hits her. And yet she loves him, and she believes his lies. I hate Trump, but I pity his supporters. I really think they simply don't know any better, and they'll follow him to their own doom.
