So after getting some calming confidence, I'm starting to get a little nervous again. I feel like the momentum has dipped, and I'd like to see a little more out of the Harris campaign. I guess the problem is that there's not a lot of great state-level polling at all. I'm confused on why there hasn't been a NYT poll in a month.
I'm also back to worrying about Pennsylvania - and I'm thinking the entire election comes down there. And don't get me wrong - I think Tim Walz is a great speaker and a great running mate and I think would be a great VP. But I'm still uneasy about bypassing Shapiro. We aren't seeing much movement with Walz on the ticket, and I'm pretty sure Shapiro would've given something. And as much as it would be great to flip North Carolina or keep Georgia, I'm worried that if Kamala doesn't get Pennsylvania it simply won't matter.
Debate is in a week so let's see if that changes things.
Positives:
- Trump continues to do little to reach middle of the road voters. He didn't even campaign yesterday. Other than the national news covering his events, I don't feel like he's doing much to appeal to everyday voters. I did see my first Trump ad which ran during a college football game I was watching.
- Kamala still has the enthusiasm edge, which Grizzlor likes to point out. I think that will help.
- When Trump blasts Kamala, he always insults her intelligence. If you're leaning-Trump voter who hasn't really heard Kamala speak, I assume you have rock-bottom expectations for her. As long as Kamala has a solid performance, I wonder if people are going to be genuinely surprised at how smart she is. I wonder if that kind of thing will backfire. If people are expecting something terrible and that something ends up being okay, the expectation gap will actually make it seem good. Something good turns into something great.
- I think Trump's reached his ceiling. I don't think there's anyone left who was going to vote for someone else and is going to switch their vote to Trump. I think she hasn't hit her ceiling yet. I think Trump can shed voters by saying/doing something stupid in the debate or annoying them, and I think she can win people over in the debate. As long as she doesn't absolutely bomb the debate, I think she will have the edge going into election day, no matter how slight. And considering where we were after the last debate, that's all I can really ask for.