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Ha, this is more about my allegiance to The Weekly Planet podcast.  I've started watching every movie they do an episode on.  Even ones I wouldn't otherwise watch

It was on Hulu so I gave it a shot.  I think all the movies are well done, and this one was less upsetting than the second one.

My question is...has Harris already lost the voters who think the economy is bad?  In other words, does the performance of the economy matter?

I saw an opinion article on USA Today that was from a conservative columnist who said "I have been attacking Biden but we should really be afraid of Harris."  The point of her article was that she'd attacked Biden as being far-left and a radical socialist for four years, but he's pretty moderate and it's actually Harris who's the far-left socialist.

If I had any interest in getting in a dialogue with someone like that, I would ask "So you admit you lied about Biden, but you want people to believe you now?"

The problem with MAGA and the GOP is that everything is a hyperbole.  Trump is the greatest president ever.  He had the greatest economy ever.  This is the greatest persecution ever.  Biden is the worst president ever.  It's the worst economy ever.  The border is the worst ever.

And the problem with that is that you've already played your card.  There's nowhere to go but up from the worst ever.  People get tired of hyperbole, and if you want to shift your attack, you have to admit you lied the first time.  Biden can't be the worst if Harris was the worst.  And, again, they've been saying this for years.  So anyone who's going to listen to Trump or Mike Johnson or Ted Cruz has already been convinced.

The stock market goes up and down, and it's already really up under Biden.  Maybe there are people who liked Trump but switched to Biden because the economy was doing better than Trump was saying, but I don't know how many of those there are.  Maybe the economy will be the tiebreaker for undecideds - it's a very important metric, but hopefully those people know that Trump doesn't have any sort of magic ability to improve the economy.  And if he did, he probably wouldn't have gone bankrupt so many times.

Forgot to comment on this.  This is something.  Nate has been really cold on Biden, and his model has been way more pessimistic on Biden than most places.  If he has her with a greater chance to win than Trump, that's pretty big.  Now the difference is minor, and it's basically a coin flip race in Nate's model, but it's pretty big.

And everyone is right, she's winning in a lot of polls now.

That's not my understanding.  The DC case hasn't been dismissed, and there's a hearing in a couple of weeks on how to proceed.  What could happen, based on my limited understanding of these matters, is that the Supreme Court required them to have hearings on whether the acts that are under the indictment were official acts or not.  What that could mean is that the government has to lay all its cards on the table, including calling witnesses, to present their evidence.  It would mean giving the defense a ton of insight into what they're planning on doing, but it would also get a ton of evidence out into the public consciousness.

It was basically what democrats were clinging to when the immunity decision was announced.  It feels like a huge risk/reward proposition - they could obviously get voters huge details on what Trump was trying to do in 2020.  It could also a) give the defense a huge advantage if the case ever proceeds and b) backfire and actually help Trump.

For me, I'm sorta hoping to just take it off the table unless there's something about Pence's testimony or some other evidence that would change enough minds to keep him out of the White House.  At this point, all I really care about is beating him in November.  If he never pays for any of his crimes, whatever.

I absolutely love Buttigieg.  I think he'd be great, and I think he can absolutely be president some day.  But in an election where evangelicals are already going to extra motivated, I think running a ticket of a black woman and a gay man is going to cause extra issues.  As much as I love Shapiro, I'm a little bit nervous about not having a Christian man on the ticket.

I know it's not the way it should be, but I think Pete needs to wait until some of the Trump anti-LGBT firestorm dies down.  Add him to the Harris cabinet (Secretary of State?) and keep building up his resume.

I agree about the honeymoon period, but could it last a couple more months?  People seem to be energized by a non-Trump/Biden candidate, and honeymoon.  Harris' own VP approval rating honeymoon lasted almost eight months.  My hope is that Harris wins before people even really know if they like her or not.

As far as turnout goes, I think you're forgetting that the true power the Democrats have is anti-Trump, not pro-Harris.  The anti-Trump people will turn out whether it's Biden, Harris, or me on the ballot.  They'd show up if they had to write Harris in.  A ton of people in this country love Trump, but a ton of people hate him.  Both are equally excited to show up.  Also, since the shift in the electorate, Democrats do better with people who are more likely to vote.  I'll let 538 explain from this article: https://abcnews.go.com/538/harris-trump … =112494481

Basically, Trump has a really rabid group of people who almost never vote in anything else.  They're also less likely to vote in ways that are more convenient (by mail, voting early, etc) so something like weather in rural Pennsylvania on election day can actually make a difference.

I think you're right, and I think she will.  But I think she's doing the right thing and hammering him on being weak and cowardly.  MAGA will eat up whatever excuse he has, but undecideds won't.  She needs to make that point instead of quickly accepting any offer Trump makes so that the news can report day after day that she's sticking to the original agreement and Trump wants a friendly crowd on a friendly network.  Then she can hammer him on it during the debate too.

I'm also a little nervous about Trump's legal stuff popping up.  I wonder if that will break up some of the momentum that Harris has now.  Trump campaigned better and raised money better during his trials, and as much as I'd love the population to learn more about his election interference case, I wonder if it's better to just let it lie until after the election.

Ha I can't tell if you're being sarcastic or not, but I'll take it

One of my coworkers who is a huge Trek guy said he thinks Prodigy is the best of the new Trek.  I think it has the most heart of any of the new Trek shows, and it uses classic Trek stories to tell stories of the week while also doing an overarching story.  It has the same love for Trek that Lower Decks does but does it earnestly instead of with humor (I love them both).  I'd forgotten how much I liked it when I saw season 2 was finally available.

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I need detective ireactions to let me know if the news I saw this weekend about The Orville season 4 starting production is true or not.

Yeah I think she could make it work, but I had trouble even understanding the tone they were going for in the trailer.  What is it supposed to be?

Also, I can't remember how her arc ended on Discovery.  I know they visited the Guardian, but did she go back to her universe?  Did she go back in time?  Is she still in the future?  I honestly can't remember

I don't know about that.  I think Fantastic Four can be a big hit, and the 60s retro-future could be fun.  The MCU desperately needs fresh blood and new ideas, and this is one of their best bets.  I mean they made Thor work.  They made Guardians of the Galaxy into one of the best parts of the MCU.  Captain America is pretty lame, and they made two of his movies into some of the best in the franchise. 

Remember that the MCU started with the junk that was lying around that no one else wanted.  No one knew who Iron Man was in 2007, and 12 years later, there were grown men crying at his death.

The Fantastic Four might not have succeeded in the past (although the early 2000s movies aren't awful), but they have a huge following for a reason.  They still have to make a good movie, but I think Feige is turning the ship around.  There's almost no new TV coming down the pike, and they're streamlining the movies.

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On RDJ.  A lot of people are mad about this, but I think we need to figure out what this is before we get upset.  Remember that Dr Doom rarely shows his face.  Could this be a situation where Downey Jr becomes unrecognizable (think his recent job on The Sympathizer) and then it's just voice work?  And while it seems desperate, people forget that RDJ is a legitimately great actor.  He did a bunch of popcorn movies, but he's one of the best actors on the planet.  And they need a very strong actor to play Doom, or it isn't going to work.

So he might be played by RDJ but you might not even know.  He could disappear into the role and truly become Doom.

Alternatively, there's also two things at play:

- RDJ could be playing a variant of Tony that goes by the name Victor Von Doom.  Maybe Tony's parents fled to Latveria, took over there, and had a son named Victor instead of Tony.  So you have this familiar face that the Avengers are going to have this emotional connection that Victor can take advantage of.  How would Peter, for example, punch a guy with Tony's face?  If Victor somehow knows about Tony, he could literally take over the world by assuming Tony's identity and just taking over.  The world would hand itself to him.  So it adds a second layer to a typical bad guy if they know he's technically Tony.

- It could be a trick.  Maybe it's a Tony variant that takes over the Doom persona and then the real-life Doom kills him.  Basically the same thing they did with the Mandarin.  That way they could have their cake and eat it too.  I know it would be slightly redundant, but imagine a super-smart evil Tony Stark Doom who brings the Avengers to their knees and then the real Doom shows up and wipes out Tony without any effort. 

There are ways to make this work, and I think we need to give them a chance.  Same with Thunderbolts.  All the actors on that project are good, and the team up could be fun.  The MCU is definitely in a downturn, but the movies have still been pretty good.  If they pivot away from some of the bad TV stuff and focus their attention back on movies, I don't see any reason to think they can't recapture the magic.

The Michigan number looks like a real outlier.  There's no question, no matter what poll you're looking at, that the race has tightened.  But it's still a 50/50 deal at best for Harris.  We're going to need across-the-board polling to show that the race is competitive (where Harris is winning as many polls as she's losing) in Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and hopefully North Carolina before we start getting too excited.  As it stands now, we'd need a Dem+3 polling error for her to comfortably win.

Now to be fair, Trump's already gotten a bump from the convention and the assassination attempt.  He's had a few gaffes recently that could cost him votes, including all the Vance stuff.  And Harris still could get a bump from her VP pick and the convention.

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The black journalist thing seems really bad.  This could possibly cost him votes, but my understanding is that a lot of people in the black community actually don't consider her to be black.  I saw some commentary from black people that noted that her Atlanta rally was "too ghetto" - I don't know if Trump insulting her "blackness" is as cut and dry as we think.  I think there's some complications, and I think Trump's comments might actually strengthen him with some parts of the black community that don't consider her to be black either.

Now I think she needs to go to the same event (not on Zoom) and handle tough questions comfortably and confidently.  She could really show the difference and score major points.

I'll take my coke when I move to Canada.

Didn't you originally write a long post about Deadpool and Wolverine?  Maybe you just started with "I saw Deadpool and Wolverine" and I jumped out.  Let me talk briefly about the X-Men and then get into Deadpool and Wolverine, which I saw last night.

Timeline Stuff

I think Days of Future Past is a really cool movie.  I think I love the concept of the movie more than the movie itself, but I think it's cool that they had these prequel characters that everyone loved and they tied it together with these later versions people already loved.  And they tied it together with this mostly-immortal character that everyone universally loved.  I know it isn't fully comic accurate, but I think it makes a lot of sense.  Wolverine was alive in both periods and could be the bridge.

And because it's a cool idea, I'm willing to suspend my belief that McAvoy and Stewart are the same guy.  I think the problem with Days of Future Past is that they didn't stop there.  Like Logan is a great ending for Wolverine, I think Days of Future Past could've been a great ending to X-Men.  I understand striking while the iron is hot with the First Class cast and grabbing characters like McKellen and Stewart while they're still young-ish, but I wonder if they should've done a trilogy of "young X-Men" films set in the 60s and 70s and finished with Days of Future Past.

You know me, loving glut in movies, but it actually might've been cool to have parallel movies setting up Days of Future Past.  A trilogy of "First Class" movies setting up Sentinels in the background, and a post-apocalyptic movie with Sentinels taking out mutants.  Give the older cast one more solo movie to set this movie up, now that interest was re-ignited in the X-Men and give fans an Empire Strikes Back moment where the heroes lose.  Show the young cast setting up a world where mutants can thrive and show the older cast showing a world where it all falls apart.  Then, Days of Future Past can hit the ground running without any exposition.  But that might've been too much.

Because I think you can suspend your belief that the characters will age to look like their "original trilogy" selves, and maybe there are some suspensions of belief that can happen.  Maybe there are two characters named Emma that have diamond powers.  Maybe there were Cyclops-looking mutants in the 60s that weren't Scott Summers.  Maybe there are two guys named Bolivar Trask that look completely different.

I'm willing to throw all the hate on Apocalypse and Dark Phoenix for taking it to the extreme and bringing the timelines too close together.  It's fun to do period pieces in the 80s and 90s but if they wanted to move to a younger version of the cast, they should've just stayed in the 60s.

The X-Men Films

In anticipation of Deadpool and Wolverine, I watched three movies: Deadpool 2 (I've seen the first Deadpool multiple times but I'd only seen 2 once), Logan, and First Class.  For the rest of the movies, I watched summaries on YouTube.  And while I've seen every entry in the series, I don't know how many times I've sat down and watched most of these films a second time.  There were swaths of the movies that I didn't remember.  The original trilogy has been on cable TV for most of my life, and I've seen bits and pieces here and there.  But that's about it.

The original trilogy feels of its time, dated in a way.  The Wolverine Origins movie is fun in places but pretty bad.  The Wolverine is really good but also very forgettable.  The last two McAvoy movies are bad and forgettable.  New Mutants was just nothing.  So to me, this is a series with some real high points but a lot of low points.  I think the three movies I watched were all really good.  The ones I skipped could probably be skipped for a reason.

At the same time, you can't really skip stuff.  The podcast The Weekly Planet noted how funny it would be if you'd watched the Wolverine solo trilogy (Origins, The Wolverine, and Logan) and that's it.  It's one character who literally progresses from youth to death in three movies, but it would be nonsense.  It's a solo trilogy that depends on you knowing characters that don't appear in any of the movies of the trilogy.  You have to have seen The Last Stand for The Wolverine to make sense.  And Professor X makes cameos in the first two movies without any real clarity on who he is, and then he's one of the most important characters in Logan.  There's an end-credits scene in The Wolverine that gets followed up in a different movie.  If you don't see that movie, two characters you don't know show up and warn Logan about an apocalypse that happens off screen, I guess.

Even just tonally, it would be bizarre.  One is a full-on action movie.  The Wolverine is about a man trying to understand his place in the world.  Logan is an R-rated movie about a man who has lost everything.

So even the forgetful entries are important if you want the whole picture.  And while not as successful, there are more X-Men films than Star Wars films.  It's a huge series of films that technically all tie together.  It's impressive.

Deadpool lives in his own space

Deadpool is hard to categorize.  I think it wants to fit in, but I think Deadpool has to live in his own space.  Not only because Wade breaks the fourth wall but because its a comedy.  The scene from Deadpool 2 breaks continuity but it's a sight gag solely for the audience.  I think it's a little bizarre that they went with Colossus in the first place, but I guess you could still argue that those are two characters with similar powers and the exact same name?

Then there's the weird stuff.  I'm not sure how Deadpool's powers work.  He knows he's in a movie (or a comic book) and can talk to the audience.  He's aware that other characters are played by actors, and he's even aware that he's played by an actor named Ryan Reynolds.  Knowing that is one thing.  But has he "seen" X-Men First Class or is he just supernaturally aware that it exists?  Did he see Logan, or does he just somehow know what happened?  Does he gets some sort of pop culture data dump of movies that the audience has seen?  Or can he pop into the Fourth Wall Cinema and actually see these movies?  And when he has the music box of dead Logan from Logan, is that real?  Or just inside Wade's head.

I'll get into a little more in Deadpool and Wolverine spoilers

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Continuing on with Wade's powers...I think (but I don't know if this is consistent) that no one can hear Wade's fourth wall comments.  Either Wade doesn't say them out loud, or whatever he does say out loud makes sense in context.  Because no characters ever react to them.  When Wade is asking which version of the Professor he's going to see or asks Cable about the DC universe, no one ever stops to question what the heck Wade is talking about.  So I have to assume he's either saying nothing or saying something the characters wouldn't think anything less of.  Maybe he's whining something else to Colossus or accusing Cable of having bad breath or something.

But Cassandra Nova gets inside Wade's head.  Couldn't she see whatever is going on?  I think an interesting subplot for Deadpool and Wolverine could've been Cassandra trying to harness whatever fourth wall power that Deadpool has.  I'm assuming, in universe, that she might've just assumed they were the rumblings of a maniac.  But it's hard to say.

Deadpool MCU Chaos

One interesting scene at the beginning of the movie happens when Wade interviews with Happy Hogan to join the Avengers.  It's a funny scene that's played for both laughs and seriousness.  Wade is silly but Happy takes the process seriously.  But how did Wade get there?  Deadpool 2 implies that Wade can somehow travel in time back to our world so did he use the Cable time travel device to travel to the MCU?

The movie doesn't explain and doesn't seem to care.  It also doesn't quite explain why Wade has a change of heart later in the movie.  If he had been accepted into the MCU, would he have taken his friends with him?  Or would he have left them all behind?  Or does he truly only care about Vanessa, who he would've brought with him?  Would he have been okay leaving his other friends in their universe if it meant that they got to live?  The movie doesn't really say.

General movie thoughts

- Overall I really liked it.  Very fun.  Very funny.  Good payoffs.  I think Chris Evans is an underrated actor because he has a completely different posture as Johnny and Steve.  Even when it was implied that Evans was Cap, it didn't feel like Cap.  I thought that was a little underrated.  I also appreciated that I got some payoff from watching 50+ movies in these combined series, whether it be from cameos or easter eggs or whatever.

- I've never seen Elektra.  I think that was the only film that I hadn't seen.  I obviously haven't seen the Channing Tatum Gambit film, but duh.  I was surprised that Deadpool didn't comment on the fact that Tatum's movie never came out.  I also assume that Tatum's accent was awkward on purpose, but it got me thinking what Tatum's Remy accent would've actually been.

- I'm actually a little surprised that there weren't more cameos.  Like with Multiverse of Madness, I was led to believe there would be more cameos so I left a little disappointed.  Unless I missed something, Azazel was the only character from the First Class series to show up.  I think Pyro and Sabretooth were the only original trilogy characters to show up.  Neither version of Scott or Storm or Jean or Mystique or Charles or Magneto or Beast.  Only Johnny from either version of the Fantastic Four.  Neither version of Daredevil.  Some of these characters were referenced but didn't show up.  I get that the movie budget was $200 million, but I'm still surprised.  Some of these actors were certainly available and could've done a quick appearance.  I wasn't upset - just a little surprised.

- I did like the love letter to all the movies in the credits, including some of the smaller or forgotten movies.

- I was a little surprised they allowed the "there will only be one Blade" joke.  Not because Feige would censor Reynolds but because that one had to sting.

- I was a little surprised that Lady Deadpool didn't take off her mask, and I'm a little surprised that Deadpool didn't reference that it was Blake Lively.

- One of the few references I didn't get was all the alternate Deadpools since I'm not super familiar with the comic version of the character.

- I'm very surprised that Deadpool stayed in his own space.  I thought, for sure, that they'd end up in the MCU universe, and I'm a bit shocked that they left him where he was.  It does sort of feel like the end of the character (although you gotta think he shows up in Secret Wars).  At the same time, I guess it makes sense.  I think Reynolds wants to come back and could play this movie a bunch more, but even in Secret Wars, I don't know how the character works.  Would we really want him to break the Fourth Wall in an Avengers movie?  And would a PG-13 version of the character even make sense in an Avengers movie except as a sight gag?  So does it make sense for the next movie (if there is one) to just be a Wade solo movie?  Or maybe it's another buddy film where someone else stumbles into Wade's universe and goes on an adventure?  Spider-Man would be fun, but I assume that would be a rights nightmare.  Wade and another version of Johnny would be fun.  Maybe Wade and another fourth wall breaker in She-Hulk?  Or just bring back Cable and do the X-Force movie.  I just think this would be hard to top.

- After all the Hawkeye jokes, I wish he would've been giving the interview.  Although more Favreau is good.

- So is X-23 the one from Logan?  It was implied, but I really don't know.

- I guess it's also official that Logan is in the Deadpool universe?  Is it possible that Logan and Deadpool is in the same universe but that the rest of the X-Men series is in a separate one?  Deadpool obviously references mutants and the X-Men.  Russell could've been born before the last mutant had been born and there are no mutant kids in the rest of the Deadpool movies (I don't think?).  No one talks about it so maybe it happened that way?  I prefer for Logan to be its own thing, but I don't think it breaks too much if it was just Logan and Deadpool and everything else was separate?

- I was pretty proud of myself.  I went into this movie fairly blind.  I saw parts of the first trailer (the Super Bowl one) but I didn't see any of the subsequent trailers.  I didn't watch any of the TV spots (except when they popped on before I could change it).  I accidentally saw some of the more widely-spread set pictures (Logan and Deadpool fighting in front of the Fox marquee, obviously Logan in his yellow costume, etc).  But I avoided hearing about a bunch of the cameos, even though I could've guessed.  And that might've played into my expectations to see more.

- All in all, I really liked it.  I thought it was fun, had some good action, some good jokes, and was worth the wait.  I don't know if it means that the MCU is back because it feels like such a one-off thing.  I'm also a little surprised they didn't set anything up with the movie (new actor playing Wolverine, any mutant thing in the MCU, new Fantastic Four, etc) but I could see how it might be weird to have this movie fairly separated from the MCU and then tease anything legitimately connected.

My aunt is pretty active in Democratic politics (not important but active ) and she was on the big Harris call that broke Zoom.  I think there's a lot of enthusiasm among women which is huge.  I also think there are voters that are going to look at Trump the way they looked at Biden.  Particularly if he has any slip-ups himself.

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Trump's "you're never going to have to vote again" comments went viral over the weekend.  Scary stuff.  All of Trump's buddies came on the Sunday shows to say that Trump was "obviously kidding" or whatever.  What I legitimately don't understand about non-MAGA Republicans is this.

- Let's say that he comes out and says that he's kidding.  What percent chance are people willing to take that he's going to overthrow democracy?  5%?  1%?  0.1%?  1 out of a thousand seems like a low chance, but are people really willing to take a 1 out of 1000 chance to vote to end democracy?  And don't get me wrong - I think it's a much higher chance, but non-MAGA Republicans are so confident that the chance is 0% (obviously MAGA Republicans would be happy if Trump was a dictator).  If he says stuff like this and then people vote for it, Trump would have a legitimate case to say "this is what the people wanted."

- I understand that guys like Graham and Cotton and Sununu are defending Trump because they think it benefits them.  But what is Trump going to need the Senate for in a dictatorship?  When has Trump ever repaid any of these guys for putting their neck out for him?  These guys are spineless but they're intelligent.  Trump would absolutely have any of them executed just for Trump's amusement.  They know that, right?

- Let's pretend for a moment that Trump is a legitimate guy who actually loves America and doesn't want to ruin democracy for his own game.  Why in the heck would he *ever* joke about it so many times when people already think he's a tyrant?  At some point, even his supporters are going to start to believe him.  Why would he intentionally keep veering into this image that is hideously unpopular even among Republicans?

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I would like to see Harris on TV more.  There's so much free press that she could be getting, but I haven't really seen anything outside of the ads on YouTube.  Is she doing enough press?

Biden's campaign was a bit of a mess, but I don't know if it was a bit of a mess because they were trying to keep Joe from being out in public too much.  But Harris is everywhere now.  She's literally the ad on every YouTube video I see, and that wasn't the case before (when I got ads, it was Obama).  I know that's not going to be everyone's situation, but she's definitely out there campaigning more than Biden was, and that's great.  I hope now that they have a young and energetic candidate (who doesn't have to also run the free world), that this campaign will be a lot more dynamic.

I also love the outpouring of support for Biden for doing the right thing and putting country over ego.  I think this will cement his legacy as a great president and a great American.  I really hope Harris wins for about a billion reasons, but one of those reasons is that I think it closes the book on Biden in a way that will just be fantastic.

This might not be true.  As far as I'm aware, Swift hasn't endorsed anyone or scheduled anything benefitting Harris.  I've been eagerly following that since Swift's endorsement actually has the ability to shift the race.

Yeah, I think it's a breath of fresh air.  I think as long as Harris continues to be confident, avoids a major gaffe, and picks a solid VP (Kelly or Shapiro - NOT Mayor Pete as much as I like him), she might be able to ride a wave of positive enthusiasm before anyone even realizes they like her or not.

Because I think she's likeable.  I think she sounds genuine and speaks like a leader.  And while the Democrats only have a short time to build her up, the Republicans only have a short time to tear her down.  Sure, they can tie her to Biden but a lot of those people were voting Trump anyway.  Harris doesn't need to take too many Trump voters away - she mainly just needs to claim more undecideds than him.  They are attacking her on the border, but that was something they were already hammering Biden on.  Who is going to be convinced not to vote for her on the border who wasn't already not voting for Biden on the border.

I'm just saying, other than racist or sexist dog whistles, what can they attack her on that they haven't already attacked Biden on?  Meanwhile, Republicans are now offended that people are talking about Trump's age.  Now he's the old and crazy one.  Harris is young and NEW.

It's still an uphill climb, but it feels so much better today than it did a week ago.

This is why I wasn't comfortable with Biden staying in the race.  I think his *ceiling* was 270-268.  And that could've been impacted by nonsense happening on election day, mail-in ballots being stolen/destroyed, or any number of things.  And that's before the election would be called and Trump's real work would begin.

I think Harris has a higher ceiling.  Maybe she picks Kelly and they can win Arizona.  Or Cooper and win North Carolina.  Either way, she needs to win the entire blue wall and then pick up at least one or two sun belt states so Trump can flip a state post-election (thanks to all the MAGA people he's put in state legislatures, secretaries of state, etc, and the judiciary) and the result can still stand.  I believe Trump can absolutely figure out a way to flip one state, but I think he'd struggle to flip much more than that even with the infrastructure he has. 

But like 2020, this needs to be not only a win but a convincing-enough win that Trump can't get it overturned.  And I think Harris can do that - I wasn't convinced Biden could.

Really hoping Harris can energize young voters, voters of color, and third party voters.

I think if Trump withdraws from the debate, it helps Harris.  I think MAGA would love it and represent it as "refusing to debate an illegitimate candidate" or something, but I think independents, undecideds, and even Trump-leaners would like to see them debate.  If he pulls out for anything other than a very legitimate reason, he's going to look like a coward who was only willing to debate an 82-year-old man.

Is that enough to hurt him electorally?  I don't know.  But it would definitely ding him.

I think Harris would be extremely well prepared and could talk circles around Trump, but Trump debates aren't really debates.  So I don't really see a lot of negative for Trump deciding to debate her.  The format doesn't allow him to ramble, and that's the biggest potentially negative thing that could happen to him in a debate.  But he didn't debate anyone in the primary, and I don't think he'll debate her.

I mean, it won't all translate for everyone.  Some people might think that Harris somehow did something to cause inflation or make the border less safe, but I think most people know that the VP isn't in charge of policy.  If they can convince people that Harris is/was tough on crime, that could translate to the border.  I think she should be able to separate herself from Biden's decision making since they're two people and he was her boss.  Now that she's the boss (potentially), she'd do XYZ differently.  We know people can make that separation because there were people that voted for Obama that now hate Biden. 

Yeah, I'm not saying it will work, but that's a common complaint against her.  I just don't know how Republicans use "she's too tough on crime" as a criticism while also saying she's letting murderers and rapists into the country at the border.  Is she tough on crime or isn't she?  I would think that they would just leave that alone, but I read this morning  that Trump's team is going to try and attack her left flank on that issue.  We'll see if it works.

I'm not saying that she can't be attacked.  Trump has taken down more seasoned politicians.  If there are people that are Republicans, they probably won't vote for her.  If there are people that are unhappy with the direction of the country, they probably won't vote for her.  If they don't like her race or gender, they probably won't vote for her.

But the people that were simply worried about Biden will probably give her a chance.  The people that don't like Biden or Trump will probably give her a chance.  The people that were voting for RFK will probably give her a chance.  Anyone that was voting for Biden will give her a chance.  Those are more than enough votes for her to win the electoral college.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics … ngNewsSerp

One reason to like the switch - Moscow Mike is against it.

I mean Harris is basically polling identical to Biden now.  I think some people won't vote for Harris, but I think there are a lot of people that wouldn't vote for Biden.

It's not a stutter.  He looks old.  He sounds old.  And people have lost confidence that he can do the job, not just right now but in four years.  People don't generally look or act younger as time goes on, and this isn't a race about who can do the job right now.

I'm not saying Biden can't win, but he really slipped up on the biggest stage.  And the polling has really dipped in the last month.  I don't know how he was going to convince people that he's not old.  None of the work he did was turning things around, and we were nearing the point of no return.

Harris is young and energetic.  She's a woman who can possibly energize women in the election during an election where women are already at the forefront.  And if she can pick a strong VP, it could be a really good ticket.  There are a bunch of "double haters" of Trump and Biden, and now the Democrats have an alternative for them both.

I'm not discouraged at all.  I'm nervous, but I think we're in better shape right now than we were this morning.  I'm going to be fascinated to see how the polls move now that it's not a hypothetical that Harris will run.

I appreciate that.  I'm hoping against hope that the Democrats can win.  Whether it be Biden or Harris or Newsom or Hillary Clinton or Michelle Obama or Jimmy Carter or Mark Cuban or whoever.  But since it will take six months minimum to immigrate to Canada in the worst case scenario, I would need to live under a second Trump presidency for a decent amount of time.  If that happens, I have to hope that either Trump doesn't actively want to destroy the country or that enough people don't want him to destroy the country to stop him.

Too many Republicans that I'd think are smart enough are going along with him and downplaying the seriousness of a threat Trump plays.  Maybe they're right.  I don't know.  We did survive one Trump presidency.  We can survive another as long as it doesn't go worse than the first.

Just hoping he loses.

I love Toronto.  I love Vancouver.  I think if we moved it might be to Calgary.  Both my wife's job and my job have an office there, and we vacationed in Banff last summer.  I haven't actually looked at pricing but when I talked to a Canadian immigration lawyer, that's the place I picked for simplicity's sake.

Biden's campaign came out and admitted that there has been "slippage" in support but that he's staying in the race.  If that's the case, I hope he knows something I don't know.  That the money will come back if he holds out to the convention.  Or that he has a high enough floor of support that he could have a bunch of gaffes and the race could still be won.  Or that the sun belt isn't as bad as it looks.

If Biden's ceiling is 270-268, he needs to drop out.  I would have a heart attack in the three months before the election if it's 270-268 because I'm much more concerned with Trump winning the presidency through nefarious means than winning it outright.  I think anything less than the margin of victory in 2020 would scare me to death, and that needs to be a realistic outcome.

I don't disagree, but you can see how Harris may not want to have her only chance at president be a 4-month rushed campaign where she needs to come back in the polls.  If she loses, her political career is probably over and the Democrats will pick someone else.  If Biden doesn't drop out, she's at least in the frontrunner conversation in 2028.  If she's passed over and the new ticket loses, she might still have a shot a la Biden in 2020.

I know the Democrats need her for the money, but what if she doesn't want to run?

Some people were down on the Boys season 4.  I thought it was pretty good.  I think the politics of it was a little too heavy handed, and I guess I'm not 100% sure how this world works.  Some quick spoilers:

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So I don't know if the show has done a good job of explaining why people are against Supes.  I get why they'd be against Vought, especially after it was revealed that they experimented on children.  But are people actually against all superheroes?  Even if they're against the Seven, there are hundreds/thousands of superheroes.  Even if all of them are secretly bad, are all of them publicly bad?  The Boys know the truth but does the whole country, and half the country is cool with superheroes actively killing people and doing no real good deeds?

I know they're going for some sort of political metaphor, but unless I forgot something (and I've only watched each season once), I'm shocked that a superhero hasn't already been elected president.  I'm also shocked that people would be upset / offended by a supe president - you'd think we'd want our presidents to be bulletproof.

I think that's the part that was the most confusing to me.

But other than that, it was a lot of fun.

It's not optimal, but four months is an eternity nowadays.  Four months ago, Nikki Haley was still in the race.  The supreme court decided on Trump and the 14th amendment.  Dune 2 had just come out.  Ghostbusters Frozen Empire hadn't come out.  Those things all feel like forever ago.

There's enough time for the media to introduce Harris and for people to get to know her so much they get sick of her.

In four months in 2015, Trump went from unannounced to ahead in most of the polls.  I think there's time.  I just don't know if they have enough to work with to really turn her around from a publicity standpoint.  They'd really need to have a great plan, and these are Democrats we're talking about.

I would like this to be the excuse Biden takes to drop out, but I don't know.  If he didn't drop out with the Parkinsons rumors, I don't think he'd drop out for this.

I haven't seen many polls with Harris doing better than Biden.  I wonder if the party could put together a giant fundraiser to seed a Shapiro/Whitmer ticket.  Shapiro is super popular in Pennsylvania, and Whitmer could help win Michigan.  If you get those two, you just need Wisconsin and NE-2 to win.  If you could launch with a huge $20-30 million event and then try to get as much free advertising as possible.  I don't know what they'd need to do to get Harris on board, but I still think if Biden resigned and Harris got to be president, even if for only a few months, it could work?

I really don't understand why Biden is staying in.  It's either ego or the poll numbers for basically anyone else are worse than we thought.  Just like Trump has a ceiling, I think Biden has a floor because enough people don't want to see Trump back in office.  But I don't understand being resigned to *maybe* winning 270-268 when a different candidate could possibly do better in the Sun Belt.  I don't know if Biden has any chance of winning any of those states.  Maybe Kamala Harris can't either, but I think we know that Biden probably can't.

Biden's negatives can't be fixed, and they can only get worse.  The more public he is, the more gaffes he makes (intentionally or not), and one of them could make things so much worse.  Why not go with someone who might have more negatives but they're negatives that can be spun into positives?  Harris has less experience but Biden could campaign for her and talk about how she's ready.  Her prosecutor background could convince undecideds that she could be tough on crime or immigration.  She could reach women in an election that abortion will be front and center on.  Her (relative) youth could help her with younger voters as she might have some sort of idea what the Internet is.  She may even own AirPods!  I know she doesn't do much better with black voters, but maybe it'd help.

Biden isn't going to get any younger.  He isn't going to look any less frail.  I know he can do the job, and I understand that he's super sharp in private meetings.  But whether he's the best person for the job doesn't matter when it's a popularity contest.

I still think he can win.  I just don't know why they don't just make a move.  There could be a lot of enthusiasm around a Harris VP pick, and it could be from a state like Pennsylvania (*ahem* pick Shapiro *ahem*) that could get them hugely important electoral votes.  I know VP picks don't usually matter, but it could in a close election.  Especially if both sides of the ticket would be incredibly unknown for the lateness in the campaign.

I love Biden, and I think he's done a great job.  But I truly wish he hadn't decided to run again.

Trump does not care about his supporters.  I have no doubt that he'd be willing to sacrifice as many of them as possible to get the power he wants and to stay out of jail.

That's what is so heartbreaking in some ways about the Trump candidacy and presidency.  I do not think that the majority of MAGA (and certainly not the majority of Trump voters) want Trump to be a dictator.  I don't think they want Russia to take over Europe or crash the economy with an insane tariff idea. 

Minus the true racists in the movement, I think they're just hardworking people who finally are heard/seen by a politician.  I think they truly believe that Trump loves the country and wants to make the country great.  I think these people aren't racist or autocratic.  I think they've been tricked into thinking that we're giving away something that should be theirs to someone else (immigrants, foreigners in Ukraine or Gaza, or to enemies like China).  I think they feel cheated, lied to, and taken advantage of.

Some of that might be based on something inherently racist (that the country was "great" during a time when it was only great for white people) or incorrect (that the United States should be a Christian nation), but I think they want the country to be great.  Even some of their ideas are altruistic.  They believe Trump's "peace through strength" mantra, and they think this would prevent wars around the world.

At the end of the day, I don't think these people are bad people, and I think it's tragic that people keep dying in the name of Trump.  I think they want to reclaim something that they feel like they lost, and I think they want to be able to put food on their tables.  I think they're struggling, and they feel like only one person is listening to them.

And Trump is taking advantage of them.  He's lying to them.  He's using them.  And he's getting them killed.  If there was some sort of version of Trump that was true to what MAGA believed, I think it would be great.  Someone who is putting the working class first.  Someone who truly understood the economy and how to make it prosper.  Someone who could work with world leaders to bring in an era of peace not just in America but in the rest of the world.

But Trump isn't that guy.  And one day they will understand that, and it will be heartbreaking.

I guess I have the same question I had before, Grizzlor.  Do you think this "sympathy" factor would be the same if Biden had been the one who was shot?  Because if it's going to go one way, it would have to also go the other way.

I'm also not sure that MAGA could get any more engaged.  If Trump is on the ballot, 100% of MAGA was going to show up.  Shooting, no shooting.  Whether it's against Biden or Harris or Newsom or even someone else they actually like.  It's why Trump has had such a reliable floor since 2016 and why Republicans have struggled in every election that Trump isn't in.  It's also why I wonder if Trumpism would've died Saturday if Trump had been killed.  These guys don't even really identify with Republicans - they're constantly talking about how much they don't like Republicans or Republican leadership.  MTG constantly talks about the "Uniparty" because MAGA thinks of both parties as being the same.  There isn't a clear successor to MAGA when Trump dies, and I don't think any of the possible successors can carry the number of people that he can.  DeSantis can't.  Cruz can't.  Hawley can't.  Taylor Greene can't.  Neither of Trump's kids have a fraction of Trump's charisma.

These people love Trump, and even if he'd been a martyr, there'd be no way for that to translate to political gain for Republicans.  Trump would probably win write-in elections for mayorships in Mississippi but then someone else would actually be there.  There'd be violence but that would eventually die down.

My point is that I don't know who's switching from Biden to Trump because Trump got shot.  Now if Trump does soften his messaging and moves to a more peaceful and hopeful message, I think that could change things.  People don't like Trump because he's divisive and narcissistic and angry and mean.  If he can shift his message to one of hope and prosperity and peace or whatever, that could win over some independents.  My wife commented this morning that maybe a brush with death will get him to mellow out a little bit.

Someone on the Atlantic wrote this article about how the image of Trump standing up defiantly in the face of political violence is actually something that could be inspirational.  And if I thought Trump meant half the things that he said, there's probably some things to like about him.  He's actually not far right on many issues.  He's moderating the stance of abortion for the entire party.  If he was actually about world peace and standing up to bullies or any of his foreign policy stuff, none of that is particularly bad.  Even his connection with the working class should be a good thing.  I think enacting policies that help the working class is good.

The problem is that I don't think Trump actually means any of it.  He doesn't want world peace - he wants unlimited power and to hand power to other despots like him.  I don't think he understands enough about economics to help the working class, and even if he did, I think he despises the working class.  I don't think he'd help them if he could.  Every policy he has is only because it's good for him politically.  If it would get him power, he'd instantly shift his stance on abortion or trade or anything.  The only policies I think he truly believes in are the immigration ones because I don't think he likes people of color or Muslims.

But if he can convince people that he actually loves America (I don't think he does) or that he's actually interested in unity or peace (I don't think he is), I think that might shift the electorate.  But I don't think there are people that are going to have enough sympathy for Trump to switch their vote for him come November.  If he's back to being the same guy, even if it's just later this week, any sympathy non-MAGA would've had for him will be gone by the time his ear heals.

I could be wrong, but I think Biden still has everyone's vote here if that's where things end up.  Maybe even ireactions, who cannot legally vote.

The problem with Biden now is that the optics are all wrong.  He has to completely change the narrative, and I just don't know if that's possible.  He did great for the majority of the press conference, but he flubbed a couple lines and that's the story.  In some ways, it's super unfair to Biden.  In others, the guy still got to be president.  Only 45 other guys can say that in 200+ years.  If he steps aside (I won't say quit) now or if he loses in November, he got four years at this job, and he did a great job.  He can hold his head high, and I guarantee that if he wants to stay involved, they're going to let him stay involved.

Is it unfair that he had to wait so long and time caught up to him?  Absolutely.  Is he going to fight as hard as he can to keep it?  Absolutely.  But I'm really hoping he makes the pragmatic decision.  The job may not be finished and he may want to be the one to finish it, but there are other ways to help.  If it's Harris and she wins, she's going to need a ton of help and Biden can help her.  Rocky got to old to fight, but he was able to help Adonis Creed.  Time moves on, and age catches up with everyone.

If he runs, I just really hope he wins.  If he's going to be stubborn and push through and loses, that's where he'll damage his legacy.

I wish this was handled differently.  First off, I wish that Biden had chosen not to run in the first place.  He had talked about being a bridge president in the first campaign, and I wish he'd stuck to that.  Unity a year ago would've been preferable to this.  Second, I wish Biden would realize which way the wind is blowing and gracefully bow out.  I maintain that LBJ isn't seen as some sort of quitter for not running for another term.  When you look at LBJ's speech, I think it makes so much sense for Biden - he can focus on spending his last six months in office completing the work he'd started on and he can let Harris (or whoever) campaign.

I understand why it all has gone down the way that it did.  Harris was polling worse than Biden, and they didn't do much of anything to get her more popular or well known.  I think she was clearly chosen as a VP only with no intention of running her as a presidential candidate.  But when you look at the polling, I think people are getting more comfortable with her.  And while there are absolutely sexist/racist people who will vote for Trump over her because she's a woman, I would assume that these are people who would've voted for Trump anyway.  And with four months to shine a positive light on her (and only four months for Republicans to try and tear her down), I think there's a decent chance they can build her up.

I don't want Biden to feel like he's a failure.  I want him to be able to ride into the sunset as a hero and as a winner.  I would absolutely love for him to stay in the race and beat Trump.  But I'm just worried that too much of that has eroded.  And even if he can convince the Democratic establishment, he might not be able to convince enough voters.  And in an election with this little margin for error and this much at stake, I don't think we can take that chance.

Again, I'm not abandoning Biden.  I'm just trying to be pragmatic.  We need to win.  And at 9:55 central on July 11, I feel like Biden doesn't have the best chance to win.  I don't think I know 100% that Harris can win, but I think her negatives are a) spinnable and b) improvable.  I don't know if Biden's aren't.  I still think the best route is someone like Newsom (who can both realistically distance himself from the Biden administration while also promising to continue what Biden started), but I understand the monetary reasons not to do it.

For me, the best case scenario is for Biden to resign, let Kamala focus on being president for six months, and have someone else run.  I think that's the best of both worlds.  We get a female president, Harris gets something to drop out, and the Democrats gets a fresh/young/lively ticket that can realistically claim to be able to forge a new path.  In that case, Trump can't campaign about how Biden did such a bad job because (new ticket) can claim they're making their own changes.  Trump can't complain about age because he'd be the old guy.  He'd be the establishment guy.  He'd be the known variable.  I think it would totally throw him on his back foot.

And yeah, there'd only be 4 months to build up the Democratic ticket, but I think in today's environment, that might actually be a good thing.  Half the reason people hate these guys is that they're known.  I think if Newsom or Whitmer or Shapiro or whoever got on a debate as a fresh face, it would feel like such a breath of fresh air.  It doesn't take long for people to form an initial opinion on them, and I think the one negative they'd have (lack of experience) might be easily spun into a positive.

If it's Biden, I support him.  But I just feel like there's a better option at this point.  I think the damage is done and the path is over.  Trump can be beaten.  We can do this.  It isn't too late.

It just may be too late for Biden.  Who, again, I really really like.

The problem is...do we really need to run our own candidate with a mental decline?  If the Democrats ran Harris or Newsom or Whitmer or whoever, there wouldn't even be this issue.  In that case, age becomes a huge benefit for the campaign instead of an issue that people can pick apart.

I think too many Democrats are worried that Biden dropping out would be a sign of weakness.  For me, it's a sign of strength.  Biden would be stepping down for the good of the country.  He'd be giving up power for the good of the country.  That's an incredible act of patriotism, and I think most people in the country would take it that way.  Even if Trump and MAGA made fun of him for quitting, I assume that would backfire on them.

Harris would continue what Biden is doing, whether it's now or in 2028, so it wouldn't be a drastic shift in policy.  I do think that someone like Newsom or Whitmer could offer a bit of separation from the Biden administration, which could be spun in a good direction for independents that don't think the country is going in the right direction.

I just think being stubborn is so dangerous.  I think hoping that Americans either forget that Biden is old or start accepting that him being slower and frailer is okay is just foolhardy.  Maybe it would happen on a limited scale, but I think the horse is out of the barn.  Biden can still win and I pray he does, but he better be right about being the best candidate to win.  Because if he's not, whatever happens is Biden's fault.