1

(3,126 replies, posted in Sliders Bboard)

Quinnipiac stinks, their polls are all over the map.  They have been a highly reliable polling group in the past, .  One pollster (forget which) was just caught "removing" samples from the entire city of Philadelphia.  They were found out when they put a PA poll out showing KH in the lead with RV (registered) yet trailing with LV (likely) which made no sense.  The LV results were missing the Philly %, so duh. 

Simon is correct, and unfortunately RCP (who have never made themselves out to be impartial) continue to over rely on R polling, and often leave out other D leaning polling which have similar shoddy metrics.  The polling continues to show that a verifiable % of Nikki Haley voters in the BG States (Granted many were simply naughy Dems) are supporting Harris instead.  I saw a number that was maybe 9%.  That's not a ton of people, but it's people nonetheless who Trump has chased off.  And they vote.  If you got off your butt to vote in a primary that was already decided, you are 99% sure of voting in the General.  I hasten to call these folks simply "White College" voters as they are not simply white, but the traditionally strong Republican contingent of them are shaping up to move further to Harris than perhaps even Biden got in 2020. 

Yes, Trump has made gains with union members, and with men of color.  That's a concern.  But I do feel like Harris may have picked up enough (or Trump lost) with other demos.  However, here's the problem with that strategy.  THEY DON'T VOTE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  If you look at the data, Harris is as I said, in better position with highly motivated voters.  Trump is solid with those who traditionally, are not.  The RFK Jr. crowd, the bro culture podcasters (Theo Von, Rogan, Barstool, etc, etc), the bitcoin morons, and worst of all, the tech billionaire crowd.  These are heavy on men, men who are 25-45 years old, often single, often non-college, etc.  They do not vote.  Yes, Trump will do well with this group, well enough to make it closer than 2020 perhaps, maybe even squeak out the win.  But the odds are not in his favor there.  As I said, it is an ecosystem that the rest of the country's demographics simply aren't a part of.  They are ANTI-ESTABLISHMENT, and by virtue, distrust the political process.  They continue to trade conspiracies on every subject, attack proven experts, and spend way too much time on FanDuel.  Trump has spent so much time attacking early and absentee voting, vote counting, certification, he's done immense harm to his own chances.  This is why the campaign's Plan B is to challenge the vote immediately, and cause chaos.

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https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/ … mains-high

From Dave Wasserman, "in key battleground states Harris leads 51-47 among voters who always show up.  Trump has a lead of 52-45 with low/mid-propensity voters."  This probably explains the Trump (and friends) strategy to try to coax these disengaged voters out of the woodwork.  Which is why I would temper the enthusiasm of the Hopium types going on the 2022 electorate, which of course, was sans-Trump.  What we ARE seeing is a clear more from 2020 even of the college grad demo towards Kamala, and those are the folks who vote in fair higher percentages.  Good for her.  Trump though is still likely to pull a greater portion of the blue collar segment, particularly with men of color.  So as I have been saying, you really cannot "pick" a winner prior, it's going to be about demographic turn out.

3

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I cannot remember where I saw the article, but the Trump campaign has outsourced most of it's "ground game" to a number of third parties.  The most prominent one is funded by Elon Musk.  Their goal is to pay volunteers and whatnot in the battleground states to canvas very specifically.  This is not unique.  However, normally you would give canvassers a list of folks who are effectively "on your team."  The point is you know they are reliable votes, and you want to be 100% sure they physically vote.  These groups though are not really doing that much.  Instead, they are sifting through the edges, to attempt to pry Trump votes out of low participation voters.  Hence the push toward black and Hispanic men, and other groups who may be audible to the Trump platform, such as the Amish in PA.  They have done this in recent elections, including 2022, and were not particularly successful.   With how tight things are, it could be vital.

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If you are someone who finds the accusations against Trump damning, you're not voting for him.  There's NOBODY left to persuade on that end.  Criminals have been elected before, people vote selfishly. 

The bigger story was Vance refusing to say Trump lost.  Bigger story should be the big job numbers from September.  Or Pete Buttigieg resolving the potentially disastrous longshoremen strike in just days.  Or Joe Biden and Kamala visiting the hurricane victims in Western NC.

5

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Trump doesn't have politics.  Just in the last month, he has invented new policies, backtracked, zig-zagged, everything under the sun.  He is currently aligned with an absolutely ridiculous program where Tucker Carlson, RFK Jr., Tulsi, and Vivek are marching through battleground states entertaining the sheep.  Those people have incredibly divergent stances on major issues.  Moreover, Trump is increasingly backed by Crypto morons, but his main backers in Super PAC's remain the tried and true corporations.  The GOP is lobbied massively by big Ag, big Pharma, big Oil, and big Insurance, as are the Democrats.  Yet you have MAGA now boasting how RFK Jr. is going to fire and hire a litany of federal watchdog agencies.  I poke the RFK crowd on Twitter all the time, because they are just delusional and lying to themselves.  Trump will drop that guy like an old rag if he wins. 

I beat you to the "I can sleep at night" GOP candidates being incredibly more palatable than Trump.

Anywho, another former pollster who I think really "gets" the numbers and the kinds of polls being dumped out there, is Adam Carlson (@admcrlsn).  He posts a LOT, but his analysis is pretty honest.  He gets into the weeds on the crosstabs, and also points out the massive dumping of online-driven polling.  He seems to be focusing on how the polling demographics are very, very, very similar to 2020's results.  Moreover, he says what I've been saying, that the MAGA insistence on comparing same-time polls with 2020 or 2016 is pointless, as the electorate shifts and the polling methodology surely has changed big time.  They do not reveal theirs so speculating is also fruitless.  My take on his analysis remains that Trump ***could*** be slightly stronger with Black and Hispanic men, and definitely with conservatives.  That likely results in slight advantages in AZ, GA, NV, and NC for him, as well as PA.  However, as always, it's a question of who votes?  Adam even lampooned polling some because human psychology gets involved, and many people apparently forget who they voted for, and also lie about whether they voted, and would they this time.

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Slider_Quinn21 wrote:

I agree about the polls, but I want people to be careful about crosstab diving only when the poll looks good.  NYT had a poll a week ago that had Kamala up 4 in Pennsylvania and tied nationally.  That would obviously be an unusual result, but which is the poll that's wrong?  Or are both of them wrong?  Or is it possible that both are right?  It would be nice if the Pennsylvania poll is right but the national poll and the 3 Sun Belt polls are Republican-leaning.  But as Grizzlor says, polls don't matter.

What might be more interesting in the days and weeks is some of the real-time voting information we get.  How many are voting and what is their party affiliation.  Because, honestly, I'd love if every single Harris voter voted early and Election Day was simply Trump votes.  More to go wrong, more chance of chaos or mischief.  It would make me feel better.  I'm hoping Kamala and her campaign have gotten out the word to vote as early as possible with some sort of infrastructure to help people get to the polls.

********

The Georgia hand-count law makes me nervous.  I think the whole game is to take Georgia off the board.  Because let's remember that Trump doesn't have to get to 270.  He doesn't have to play offense - he can only play defense and he wins in the House.  That's what's nerve-wracking.  But luckily at least one person in Nebraska has stood up for democracy.  We will need a lot more like him to defeat Trump.

***********

I don't believe for a second that if Trump loses in 2024 that he won't be back in 2028.  I will have a ton to say if Trump loses, but I think he'll be back.  He'll be further gone and crazier, but if he's alive, he's running.

********
I cannot wait until his reign over the GOP is over.

The polls aren't right or wrong, there is the margin of error for a reason.  The cross tabs though can often better explain certain results.  Sienna might have oversampled men nationally, while going the other direction for one of the states.  For example. 

The extra counting in GA to me, is nothing but a nuisance and won't amount to anything. 

If he loses, Trump will then have to likely face one if not two Jack Smith-led prosecutions, which would be the full end of him. 

GOP isn't going anywhere.  The Democratic Party continues on a path away from blue collar issues and towards identity politics, and behemoth spending projects that have historically bad results.

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The Sienna/NYT polls have been all over the place.  The worst one I've seen though is ActiVote, who just put out a poll of 400LV which took them a MONTH to sample.  I mean, on the one they still were doing Biden vs. Trump!  It's a total joke.  Simon makes mention of this, but no matter the poll, you NEED to pay attention to the crosstabs.  What is the sample made up of?  Gender, party affiliation, how do they feel on certain issues, etc.  However, about a month from now, I would look at where Real Clear Politics has it's averages, and check sites like 538. 

Are there really any undecided's left?  I mean, come on now.  I'm very intrigued whether the dumpster fire Robinson down in North Carolina will harm Trump?  Might happen.  The polls are snapshots.  The betting markets are often a better check these days, because they are measuring intent.  It's going to be all about the turnout.

PS: Nebraska will NOT be altering their electoral vote procedure, so the likely victory in 2nd district for Harris will net her 1 vote.  That's huge obviously in attempting to get to 270.

8

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Exhaustive discussions over "language" are fine and dandy, but are as actionable as me farting into the wind.  The uber-sensitivity only stifles inventive thought, and divides, it only divides.  The first amendment allows for it, as simply being crass with language is protected, and one should not fear for that.  The outrage police have soiled political discourse, particularly on the left, and driven a mass of people towards the Orange menace.  In fact, I would say that besides inflation, it's up there in 2nd place for driving left of center folk into Trump's small hands.  There has been a high level clampdown on free thought and discourse, which largely came out of the COVID paranoia, and has increasingly turned younger generations off.  Yes, we want to caution against "misinformation," but the result has been a string of justifiable accusations against the main stream media, and Democratic officials.  That combined with the Democratic Party's absurd inaction on immigration (The Fed even commented that illegals make the unemployment statistics worse), rampant crime post-lockdown, and the pro-trans movement which continues to freak out parents.  This string of foolishness is why the tree in my yard would poll better than Joe Biden on almost any issue.  And now Kamala is being tasked with trying to convince voters that she effectively either disagreed with that foolishness (and stayed silent), which few believe, or that she's willing to "change."  It's going to be a highly difficult ask.  If Trump wins, one can easily point to the breakdown of classical, actual liberalism, in favor of the un-American and idiotic ideals of the left that has submitted itself, largely through fear of being "racist" to a movement that seems to despise America's actual ideals.  It's boxed the left into this ridiculous space where antisemitism and anti-colonialism mix, and the result is toxic.

Anyway, after my rambling TED talk, the view of Northwestern University data scientist Thomas Miller is an interesting one.  He uses the betting markets, rather than polling, to conclude that Kamala Harris will still win in a landslide.

https://www.newsweek.com/data-scientist … on-1955575

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Nate Silver just rehashed what everyone already knows, and what I've said for a year now.  The GOP continues to lose with Trump.  Haley or Desantis would be up and cruising at this point. 

I saw Trump's comments in Michigan, they were worse they you realize.  Firstly, the drilling answer is ridiculous, and every time he goes there, it makes him look dumber on the subject.  Secondly, he specifically said he would put tariffs on imported food!!!!  This is easily this stupidest and worst tariff idea yet!  I mean, how much coffee, bananas, avocados, coconuts, etc., are grown in the United States?  Some but most of that comes from central or south America.  Meaning your Starbucks would cost $30 a cup!!!  IDIOT!!!!  Again, anti-Trump PAC's should seize on these statements and lampoon him to no end.  He also told Michigan autoworkers that the state's move towards EV's was a waste of time and money.  He said "why should you compete with the Chinese who will do it better and cheaper."  WTF.  So if the US auto industry refuses to evolve, then what?  Again, complete IDIOT!

Inflation went down a bunch recently, and the FED's 0.5% point slash today will help stimulate the economy and bring inflation down, albeit not immediately.  Trump has basically spitballed his entire platform, to the point that his surrogates cannot even keep up with the daily brain droppings. 

Dave Wasserman, from New Jersey, is a good read.  He actually works with data, unlike Silver who's goal these days are to handicap elections for gamblers.  Dave has helped publish the Cook Political "Swingometer."  It's a genius tool, because you can see how turnout by demographics impacts the results.  In fact, Dave mentioned that in say, Wisconsin, if Kamala retains the 2020 Black voter edge, she wins, but Trump could flip the state if that moves in his direction by just a few points.  Likewise, demographic shifts in North Carolina have positioned the state to where if VP Harris retains the 2020 White voter numbers Biden had, she would flip the state.  Give it a try!

https://www.cookpolitical.com/swingometer

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ireactions wrote:

I think my terror is probably about us here in Canada, where we are staring down the barrel of an election where the advantage is with this climate change dismissing looney toon who is basically Trump lite.

What do you mean?  Think of all the "seafront" property who will have up in Canada thanks to global warming.  Trump told the good folks in Michigan about that tonight on stage.

11

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Well, another loon, with a gun, attempted to shoot Trump down.  This time it was at his local golf course, before USSS intervened.  This man has a history of run in's with the law, and neighbors described him essentially as a complete nutjob, and probably a dangerous one.  This followed a bizarre tweet by Trump "I HATE TAYLOR SWIFT," earlier in the day.

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At this point, you're not going to convince people who still cannot make up their minds.  It's a fallacy.  They either won't vote, or they're just lying to poll takers.  Trump continues to lead by a significant margin on immigration and the economy.  As humiliated as he got the other night, it may not end up mattering.  He certainly won't debate again.  It's going to continue to be an uphill fight for Democrats over the next several weeks, and they can push their supporters to vote, with emphasis on abortion and Trump's authoritarianism.  Immigration is a lost cause, everything that's been said, has been said.  Joe Biden and/or those in his administration (possibly including the VP) just simply failed on that issue.  For anyone who finds it to be a deciding factor, you lost them awhile ago.  I felt her economic proposals were good, and hopefully they can advertise those more wherever they are, and go.  Becomes a battle to see who gets more people out to vote.

A better print could emerge at some point.  I would definitely agree that most consumers would want the most technologically assisted/aided version.

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The contest will be decided by both low-information, and low-enthusiastic voters.  I think she has converted legions of "low-enthusiasm" voters into her column, and will get most of them to actually vote.  Trump has done this as well, of course.  The rest of them are mainly sick of both parties, and probably will not vote.  It's the "low-information" voters who worry me.  Some are young people, but usually those folks do not vote.  The older ones, especially women and single men, are a concern.  Many of them are lower income.  They see the rates of inflation, as well as other factors, and are not happy with the economy.  As well as immigration.  They do not view Trump as the danger he is, because again, low-information.  They are concerned over their ability to afford even the basics, and they look back pre-pandemic, and they know it was easier then.  They don't take into account the disaster Trump made out of the pandemic response, that made worldwide supply chains crippled.  Or the work that Biden's administration has done politically to ease these things.  My only hope is that these people will get the message.  Hence why I think it's important for Harris to get out there onto platforms that these folks WILL see.

15

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Trump groups ran a pretty savage anti-immigration commercial that showed up during CNN post-debate coverage.  Harris now though, she really needs to start appearing on specific TV, and social media, programs.  I don't care if they are softball spots like Jimmy Fallon or The View or whatever.  Just to keep the narrative going.  "We're not going back."  Her campaign speeches, convention, and now this debate, have been tailored well, and her message has been largely focused.  Now they need to broadcast that far more frequently.  Fundraising broke records last night.  Well great.  She has to branch out.  She can deliver this message.  Trump is a blithering old fool.  If voters cannot perceive that by now, I really don't know what else to do or say to them.  I'm tapped out.  His ideas are terrible. 

PS: Did y'all notice how the supposed secret weapon MAGA have been touting for weeks, went unspoken???  Not one utterance of Trump's alliance with RFK Jr., nor his top issues like fighting "corporate capture," free speech, or a sudden "left turn" Trump promised to take.  Nadda.  Guess that goes to show the losers backing Kennedy how much Trump actually thinks or cares about them.  If he wins, Bobby K will be forgotten.

I thoroughly enjoy the artwork, animation style, effects they use.  The problem is the pacing.  Everything is so dark, and ultra slow.  Often the translations don't work well with the scenes, although I could assume this one is alright considering the production value.  The pacing is kind of what has soured my viewing of most of the Star Wars saga on Disney+.

Afraid not, the last anime I watched, needed to force myself to get through it, which was the one for Supernatural.

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Look I think it's far simpler.  Most Americans, who are not betrothed to one side or the other, went into the debate with two ideas about the candidates.  Trump is old, off kilter, mean-spirited, and full of himself, though at "face value" his policies and complaints often ring true.  Kamala is confident, smarter, tenacious, but unproven with potentially vapid policies.  Well, in plain view of tens of millions of people, Donald Trump played the role of his own caricature to a T.  At this point, if you had ANY potential doubts about VP Harris, and still have those, I'm afraid you are just an unserious moron.  Man or Woman up and make a damn adult decision. 

Will the debate matter?  Hard to say to what extent because the polling is all within the margin of error anyway.  I do think there are continued issues economically to deal with.  Frankly, I thought the few lines which Kamala was able to make on her plans were worthwhile.  Trump's economic plans are colossally bad.  I'd only wished more time were spent on them.  Drill, cut billionaire taxes, raise tariffs on goods.  Absolutely awful, like Brazil-bad!!!  Not to mention that ABC's Muir inadvertently BAILED him out of answering how he would deport 12 million people!  What kind of chaos and travesties that would cause.

19

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What was it, three months ago, or longer, I was screaming and pleading to get Biden out of there.  THIS was why!!!!  I also don't know what affect this debate will have, but VP Harris completely decimated the old dope.  She ruthlessly, and I mean, ruthlessly, ripped him to shreds on her issues (including the abortion question which Biden was unable to).  I almost felt bad for Trump when she basically tore his clothes off on national TV by bashing his crazy rallies, then creamed him again on foreign dictators.  Trump naturally responded in idiotic fashion.  I literally could not believe he even brought up the stupid cats and dogs being eaten in Ohio baloney!!!!!!!  Then he quadrupled down on it, and FOUGHT the ABC co-host over it.  Trump looked old, stupid, mean, dumb, full of anger, and completely worthless.  Harris looked smart, young, vibrant, tough, coherent, and fearless. 

You know how bad it went for Trump, when every pundit of his bitched about the ABC moderators.  He lost, and lost BIGLY.  I mean, wow, completely ripped the veneer away from this orange schmuck on LIVE TV.  I don't wish to take anything away from Kamala's performance, which requires intense preparation and strength, but this was so EASY.  It should always have been this EASY.  Even in the GOP world.  This guy is a complete phony.  Substance wise, not a great debate for that, but who cares?  You weren't getting any from the old buffoon. "I have concepts to replace Obamacare."

PS: Taylor Swift announced she's voting for Kamala....

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Very quick thought.  Kamala allowing Trump Show to play on primetime TV.  He's literally regurgitating every idiotic and mostly false MAGA conspiracy and social media baloney.  I can't wait to see Jon Stewart recap at 11pm live.

ireactions wrote:
Grizzlor wrote:

What I am getting at is that even this rotoscoping you're mentioning, I don't want that either.

If you don't want DESPECIALIZED to use rotoscoping, I'm not sure how you expect DESPECIALIZED to even exist.

Digital scans of film prints, while a little softer, are consistent throughout. Of course, a lot of people may prefer DESPECIALIZED because they find the hyper grainy look of the digital scans more distracting than DESPECIALIZED being a bit schizophrenic in sharpness. I personally decided to run the digital scans through an AI grain normalization process -- not to remove the grain, just to make it the same in one scene as it is in all others.

Yes, that's entirely my point!  Despecialized was fine when there was nothing else.  Now that actual prints can be made presentable, there's no need for it.  Star Wars had to be one of the few if only films which were rebuilt in that way, as a result of Lucas's hacking up the originals.  With other films, you find an original and just restore it.

What I am getting at is that even this rotoscoping you're mentioning, I don't want that either.  I want the original cuts, as they were printed for theaters.  Yes, you want to clean them up solely to restore the image, nothing more.  There was a time when I kinda went, yeah, lets spruce those up with new tech and effects, because ILM was lacking or behind schedule.  However, I've gotten to the point now, well awhile ago in fact, that is actually what I do NOT want.  Adding stuff in that wasn't there, especially stuff that wasn't shot, is a bridge too far.  You are welcome to do that, as a director, but at least give us the originals!

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The Sienna/NYT poll has a R+3 lean, it's not a bias, it's just based on their sample.  You cannot poll anybody under the age of 40, as they will not respond to unknown phone numbers and often emails.  I'm older than that, and I sure don't!!!

Jerry is kind of a goofball, which is part of it.  When I mentioned to Rebecca that he'd be a hit at conventions, she just laughed hard, and said, "I don't even think he has an agent!"  It's not that important to him, I guess, and trust me the man has ZERO insecurity about meeting fans all day.  Quite the opposite, as he is a long-time talk show and game show host.  What I do find odd is that he promotes a lot of stuff, which I think he might be involved in (comics on tour), and his own jobs, all over social media.  Appearing at conventions is often a pretty good way to promote your own stuff too.  I mean, he was at Star Trek Las Vegas (the big con) with Rebecca, but he's a main cast member on Lower Decks, but really didn't participate in the programming for that.  Odd.

Anywho, I was happy to see he got a few minutes to catch up with Rhys-Davies, if anything.  I do not expect anything Sliders-related to come from that, of course.

RussianCabbie_Lotteryfan wrote:

based on how JRD is dressed (he normally wears an outfit like that for conventions) and the credential necklace around jerry's neck, i am assuming they were both at the same fan convention.

Yes I think it was Fanboy Expo Orlando, JRD and Rebecca Romijn were booked.  Jerry usually (not always) accompanies his wife, and this was the first time both he and John were at the same one.  I have implored Jerry to take convention bookings, people would line up for him.  Then you could have things like dual photo ops with him and John, probably a Sliders panel, etc.

https://x.com/MrJerryOC/status/18324981 … g&s=19

Getting the team back together...

https://i.postimg.cc/Mvg3rPWc/Screenshot-20240907-154252.png

How cool is that?

But doesn't despecialized still use footage which was digitally enhanced?  I want something that has been cleaned up but I do NOT want even minimal stuff like painting glowing engines on X-wings.

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Well I fret that Harris has allowed a lot of the momentum to fade, as she and Walz have been campaigning but the country doesn't see them.  The staff is obviously full of Biden personnel who are antagonistic towards the press, and it's stupid.  She should be doing every celebrity podcast there is, there's plenty of softball ones for her to do.  Even if they don't want her on TV shows, which again, is short-sighted.  Harris is barely in the news highlights anymore.  They're rolling out a pro-small business economic plan this week.  Who's covering it?  You don't see anything, because he's not directly speaking to the press.

Jim_Hall wrote:

To be honest I'm surprised so many 4K discs are still being produced, especially when the 4K players are outrageously priced. I bought two players, one $420 and the other $250. I figure 4K is the last resolution that will be ever be adopted. However I'm using a 5K iMac and the difference between reading text is like night and day. That's at desktop viewing distance though. I don't think many people would even watch a 5K TV that close. It'd be useless anyway because lack of content.

There's still revenue to be had there, and the studios want it, particularly on new releases.  I still don't even own a 4K television!

ireactions wrote:
Grizzlor wrote:

DVD now needed to fit some (not all) of the litany of BRD extras, the studio would often sacrifice DVD bit rate to squeeze it on there.   Granted, many releases simply put the extras onto a second disc, but that's a cost associated.  Frankly, producing new bonus content wound up being a waste of money, as studies found the vast majority of it went unwatched.

That's unfortunate!

To me, I think of how the Universal DVD release of SLIDERS looks shockingly poor on DVD for Episodes 102 - 109, but if played on a CRT television, I don't think anyone could tell that those episodes looked any blurrier than the pilot or the subsequent seasons. I also doubt poor DVD bit rate was a problem until HD televisions started reaching 75 percent of homes by 2013, at which point DVD was already too low a resolution for the screen, and overcompression would make it worse. However, by 2015, it was pretty clear that DVD was going to fade in favour of streaming and, if anyone really wanted physical media, blu-ray for collectors.

Don't knock the CRT!  HA HA HA.  Oh there are entire communities, of which I am part of one on Fartbook, devoted to our oversized, aging, yet reliable friends.  Mainly their preservation, so when we find one on the curb or a curb-listing, we try to get them, and offer them up to others.  As with arcade monitors, there are no CRT factories remaining on the planet.  There is nothing quite like playing old school video games in front of the glow of the cathode ray tube!  Many of those aficionados watch literally everything on them, ha ha, something I myself would not dare.  But if you can find one of the "HD" CRT's that were sold in the 2000s, and were widescreen, they are very popular with those folks.

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There's I read something like 175 polls on this race being taken across the country, and most of those are dog feces.  They have little to no scientific or academic basis, without even getting into the Blue or Red-tinged pollsters who are free to apply their biases.  I personally don't care for Nate Silver, and never have.  I felt his 538 garbage was essentially just that, and really have little faith in these polling predictive models.  They act as if they are superior, but they're really not.  Furthermore, one of the newer and "hotter" ones on the web is Poly-Market, a fly by night operation owned by billionaire Peter Thiel, yes the same tech bro who basically invented J.D. Vance, and supports Trump.  So when PolyMarket shows for Trump, I just roll my eyes.  Well guess who else is on Thiel's payroll these days?  That's right, Nate Silver, who was so good at his job that ABC fired him.  I'd rather hear from a Simon Rosenberg or a Karl Rove than these entities, at least they know politics.

PS: Allan Lichtman, as many suspected, announced that Kamala will win based on his "13 keys."  She's won 8 to Trump's 3, with two remaining undetermined.  He has been "correct" in nine of the last ten Presidential contests, going back to 1984.  To be fair, the majority of those were somewhat "settled" with clear favorites going in, and though he picked Gore in 2000, that one was as much of a tie as one could get, well, maybe before this year.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/pol … 082875007/

ireactions wrote:
Grizzlor wrote:

DVD's were fine, for about a decade.  When Blu-Ray came out, many studios began intentionally degrading their DVD releases on the same product.  Disney was notorious for this, as a way of showing off how much "better" BRD was.  In fact, it wasn't THAT much better.  The bit rate, sure, but given that 4K televisions did not become the "standard" until somewhat recently, there was often not a huge reason to have blu-ray's for close to a decade themselves, on older content.

I wasn't aware that Disney was releasing poor bit rate DVDs (if I understand you correctly). Where can we read more about this?

Well, the first thing to look at would be what "extras" are on the discs?  For several years, DVD's mostly were sold with simple audio commentary track(s), trailers, a limited menu, and maybe a few deleted scenes.  This required minimal disc space.  Some studios like Warner Brothers often printed double-sided discs, one for widescreen and one for pan & scan.  After that first "wave," studios decided that they could start releasing other editions like director's cut, blah blah blah.  Yet, these would need to be additional discs in the case, so really no change.  With the advent of the blu-ray, and its well over 5x capacity increase from DVD, you could fit a larger film file (1080p) encoded at a higher bit rate.  However, you could also offer additional cuts, extras, and newly produced bonus content like interviews and documentaries, all on a single disc.  Well, when the studios go to sell them early on, they can't simply sell a blu-ray release, especially of a new film, you had to release a DVD or you'd lose out on millions of customers.  Since the DVD now needed to fit some (not all) of the litany of BRD extras, the studio would often sacrifice DVD bit rate to squeeze it on there.   Granted, many releases simply put the extras onto a second disc, but that's a cost associated.  Frankly, producing new bonus content wound up being a waste of money, as studies found the vast majority of it went unwatched. 

Now, obviously how the particularly movie you bought on DVD 15 years ago was shipped, in terms of extras and # of discs, etc., varied on a case by case basis. 

There are videophiles complaining incessantly on Reddit about 4K releases, and the type of BluRay disc being used.  They go crazy about whether a studio compresses to fit on a cheaper disc, when in fact the human eye is never going to discern the difference.  Perhaps in a screen capture, but who cares?  In fact, when they came out, people were screaming about how the studios often just took the DVD stream, and upscaled it, and sold you a 1080p version of an old film that your TV probably could have upscaled similarly, ha ha ha. 

The other issue is that many of the old forums and websites have vanished, but here's one where a customer was annoyed that Disney cheaped out and stuck too much on a single disc, and fouled up the video quality.

https://www.avsforum.com/threads/disney … tby=newest

Oh cool, I have been meaning to get ahold of the TN1 stuff for awhile now.  IMO those are vastly superior to the earlier work (which I have) that sourced Bluray and DVD.  Now that they have found film, each time more complete, the work is better and more authentic.  I cannot describe the disgust the repeated Lucas mutilations have caused me, ha ha ha.  Frankly, of all the re-added scenes in the OT, maybe the only one I felt "added" to any of them was the Biggs/Luke embrace prior to the Battle of Yavin in the first movie.  Every other addition or change was putrid, and should never have been made.

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Just take the week off, nobody is paying attention to squat until the debate.

DVD's were fine, for about a decade.  When Blu-Ray came out, many studios began intentionally degrading their DVD releases on the same product.  Disney was notorious for this, as a way of showing off how much "better" BRD was.  In fact, it wasn't THAT much better.  The bit rate, sure, but given that 4K televisions did not become the "standard" until somewhat recently, there was often not a huge reason to have blu-ray's for close to a decade themselves, on older content.

Most TV series were shot this way on film (edited in post on tape), except maybe sitcoms which were shot entirely on video.  Unfortunately, the process of obtaining the film, rescanning that, followed by a shot by shot reproduction of what was done in post, is never going to happen for this series.  It's still something that they did it for Star Trek and Next Gen.

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pilight wrote:

Bail reform is not soft on crime.  If a crime is serious enough to hold someone prior to trial, fine.  If it's not, fine.  There is no situation in which a crime is serious enough to hold someone unless they have money to buy their way out.

Tell that to the NYPD, who are forced to re-arrest the same violent criminals, many migrant gang members, some who have attacked cops, over and over.  These criminals are let right back onto the street, and commit further violent crimes.  It's a complete disaster.  It started from a point of social justice, as yes, many people were held seemingly indefinitely for trial, and could not afford bail.  However, it was taken advantage of by lunatic judges from the get-go.  The rampant violent crime, played out nightly on local news, in NYC plus a failure to gerrymander, literally handed GOP most of the NY state suburb districts around Manhattan.  Including one to the ridiculous George Santos.  New Jersey remained blue, because we don't allow that shit here!  You attack a cop, you beat up a woman, or you throw someone off a subway platform, you stay in jail, in Jersey. 

ireactions wrote:
QuinnSlidr wrote:

ireactions - You did ask for a representative. The other James above that you mention is not a government rep. smile Otherwise I probably would have included who you did.

Semantics, I know...oh, well...

I think you are confused. The James Carville Jr. you mentioned and quoted is the same person I quoted. Carville Jr. is not a Republican. However, Carville Jr. is also strongly opposed to the social justice focus of a number of Democrats, in particular Bernie Sanders.

BTW, one of those Bernie alums is now Trump backer Tulsi Gabbard. 

Slider_Quinn21 wrote:

A couple of notes of note

- Regarding polling error.  This is my big worry because we literally won't know the error until it's essentially too late.  In 2020, the error was pretty huge in some cases so the whole thing makes me nervous.  The polling error in 2020 was enormous, but it was also a pretty unusual year (obviously).  With lockdowns going on across the country and Democrats more locked down than usual, the samples could've been incorrect.  There was also the "shy Trump voter" issue at hand as Trump was extremely unpopular.

There was some thought earlier in the year that Biden might've had the same issue.  Biden was so unpopular that people might've been "shy Biden voters" and told pollsters that they were voting for who they were perceiving is/was the more popular candidate at the time.

Are there still shy Trump voters?  I feel like Republicans would be more likely now to admit that they are supporting Trump - the legal stuff might have dissuaded them a little bit, but that seems to have passed a bit.  I also think you're seeing Biden voters saying they're switching to Trump so I think that bit of polling error might have been corrected a bit.  Obviously the covid stuff is over so the sampling issue might be fixed.  There's a thought that Republicans are just against polls and are less likely to take them.  So that could still be an issue.

Of course, during the primaries, Biden overperformed his polls and Trump underperformed his.  Is there a chance that pollsters, in an attempt to correct 2020, overcorrected and are oversampling Republicans?  Is it the other theory that Republican-funded polls that lean right are flooding the market and affecting polling averages?  Maybe?  I would love if the polling was wrong but in our direction.  I guess we won't know until November.

- Trump is flirting with dropping out of the debate.  If he does, Harris needs to use the time.  Trump is doing exactly zero to court voters in the middle, and she could have a great opportunity to reach people.  I think Trump would be making a huge mistake by not debating, and I think she may be the one who doesn't need it.  I think, obviously, she needs to appear to want to do it no matter what.

- Has she scheduled a national TV interview yet?  She said she would by the end of the month.  She really needs to do that because it's an attack that the right will continue to use on her.  And it's an attack that I think is hitting her.  I know she's trying to campaign as much as possible, but she needs to make this a priority.  And I think she should do a bunch of interviews if she can.

- She and Walz are doing a bus tour of Georgia.  Georgia is the only state that she's behind in the 538 polling average so I'm interested in what her campaign is thinking.  Do they think there's huge gains they can make in Georgia?  I would think that something like this could be more effective in places like Pennsylvania or even North Carolina, but maybe there's plans for that too.  Best case scenario for democracy is for her to sweep all seven battleground states, but Georgia makes me nervous because of all of the control that Republicans have over the election process.  I think it's the state that's most likely to be flipped.  I'll be interested to see if the bus tour works (Trump is also focused on Georgia so maybe she can just play defense and make Trump focus on Georgia which could help her in Pennsylvania).

You're going to drive yourself mad with these dumb polls.  Here's something, Gallup just released a poll where enthusiasm, however they're measuring that, is now at 78% among Democrats, an unheard of number, and 46% with Republicans.  In general, the polls are very close to 2020 in the swing states.  The national average is not, but that's because RCP for instance takes forever to roll recent polls into the avg.  My feeling is that Harris is ahead of Clinton '16, but trailing Biden '20.  One factor in those races were third parties.  They received nearly 6% of the vote in 2016, which was a killer for Hillary, and then just 1.5% which greatly helped Biden.  Trump in now a third election, remains marooned at the 46-47% mark.  With RFK Jr. basically out, I think the "other" vote total could be as low as 2% now.  That could allow Harris to get into the 50.5% range, with Trump "growing" to 47-47.5%.  That would make many of these battleground states insanely razor thin.  I still like her polling in MI, WI, and yes NV, a notoriously difficult state to poll.  Demographics give Harris a chance in NC and GA, but I'm not confident there at all.  I think she has a better chance with AZ.  That leaves PA, which I fear is absurdly close, and could be decided by hundreds of votes.  Have I driven you madder?

Harris and Walz first interview sit down with CNN is coming soon.  She was of course attacked by GOP for having a dual sit down, when EVERY OTHER campaign including Trump Pence did the same thing. 

Harris agenda is all over the place, even I can't keep up.  Still, I feel like she's taking a page out of Trump's book, and just pandering.  And why not?  Worked for him.

BTW, Harris strategy to campaign in rural areas is terrific.  You need to cut down the red margins in those places!  This is the Obama strategy, and of course, the opposite of what Hillary did and paid for.

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ireactions wrote:
Grizzlor wrote:

The young female-led, almost nonstop, social media cancel police from the left is completely un-American

Can you identify any representatives of this subgroup of Democrats you're highlighting and who they've cancelled over what? Because without clarification, this just comes off as a remark from someone who is scared of girls and young people.

The rest seems like reasonable opinion. I mean... it is going to be a close election.

Well Carville is a tad crass, and he generalized that to be, "don't eat hamburgers, don't watch football, don't drink beer."  Referring to the problem as ""The message is too feminine." 

Gina Carano is a prominent example.  She refused to conform to the pronoun police, and lost her job.  The backlash to corporate wokeness nearly put Bud Light out of business, and recently threatened to take Harley-Davidson of all things down, too.  It's not specific Democrat Party language but many of them have been caught in it.  The George Floyd/BLM demonstrations frequently turned violent, and Joe Biden was often the ONLY major party leader condemning it, that included Kamala who stupidly created bail programs which were used by violent criminals.  There was also a firing line, both by Democratic leaders, pundits, members of the press, pointing to anyone who attempted to suggest a lab leak on COVID, as well.  Then you have civic leaders of major cities, who hide tributes to Founding Fathers and other past American leaders, out of fear of the woke left, while they allow rampant mentally compromised homelessness, and continue to be blind to repeat violent criminals who seem to be unable to be kept in prison. 

Again, I felt like Kamala Harris spoke to some of this, but it's not where the larger party has been.  That's why I said it is difficult to argue with Robert Kennedy Jr.'s dismay with the left and its clamp down on free speech.  And yes, the party's platform has been a problem with blue collar men in this country.  It's soft on crime (bail reform, condoned shoplifting), far too supportive of migrants, and well too entrenched in the "equity" game.  Men see all this, and get very concerned over their collective future, especially economically.  That's at least how I can best explain it.  This is why I feel like a lot of men have gone to Trump.  I have many, many anecdotal examples of people I know.  And as Carville continues to harp, the identity politics from the far left have been a major burden to this party nationally.  Kept alive only by the far WORSE of the right.  These were principles that Bill Clinton led on decades ago, where have they gone?  The party has allowed the dumb left to hijack it.  Again, thank goodness for Kamala willing to go with American Exceptionalism in her speech.  Enough with the left's overt hatred of America because it keeps them in business, the business of racial identity politics.

In any event, it's really irrelevant at this point.  There's two months left, I'm not sure there's many minds left to change.  RFK Jr. probably should have been allowed to at least speak to Kamala.  His ideas on food safety, microplastics, and climate change are very critical to the Democratic agenda.  Unfortunately, because he questions the efficacy of the pharmaceutical industry, he is person non grata.  I still don't think it will matter much in this election, but it might.  Either way, it's something that is bubbling out there.  The FDA, USDA, CDC, and EPA are close to useless.  The American people are poisoned to death.  Just look at the incredible growth in cancer diagnoses among younger and younger age groups, who don't abuse alcohol or use tobacco products.  Something needs to be done.  It's an issue that I highly doubt Trump will give much oxygen to, which is why Kennedy is an idiot, but I do believe that if he did, that's a much stronger platform than he had a week ago.

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QuinnSlidr wrote:

By the way, I hope you will accept my apologies for how I took your language the other day, Grizzlor. I think both a combination of being on a high from the DNC and the way discussions went at that time led to that result and a confusing misinterpretation of the conversation on my side. And for that, I apologize.

None of that bothers me, you have to see the group texts I have with "MAGA" friends of mine!  The old saying goes, to know one's enemy, blah blah blah, from Sun Tzu's Art of War.  I purposely seek out what the other side are saying, as well as independent sources.  If you ignore their opinions and viewpoints, then you become something like the Hillary campaign, which was caught entirely flat-footed and lost.  That's why I keep harping on inflation and immigration, because there are issues that people who don't have a ton in common with conservatives, yet they value those and will vote for them.  One cannot simply disregard them, because after you've lost, and you're wondering what the hell just happened, it's better to sniff these things out, and adjust. 

The Democratic Party, as the great James Carville says, has a "male problem."  Just as Trump is disgusted by 2/3 of the women in the country, Democrats continue to be unable to "speak to men," particularly those aged 25-44 and older.  They're too preachy, too in your face with, "you can't say this, you can't do that," and men don't like it.  Too late for this election, but it's something they need to do an about face on.  The young female-led, almost nonstop, social media cancel police from the left is completely un-American, and has chased so many from the party.  It's why, even if Harris wins, it will be by the skin of her teeth.  She's going to get clobbered with male voters, pray not as badly as Clinton did.

Kamala gave a speech that Reagan would have enjoyed.  In turn, RFK Jr. did in fact suspend his campaign.  He's pulling his name from 10 "battleground states," but keeping him on the rest.  He endorsed Trump for three main reasons.  First, how he was treated by the media and the DNC as well as the courts.  There's no question that, despite what Kennedy's positions were, he was given no quarter by the Democratic Party, and the media largely blocked him.  Granted he had low support percentage wise, but it's a continued problem with both parties.  They purposely craft rules to keep only the select candidates from running.  Granted, the other guy Dean whatever his name was, he was able to get on the ballot for DNC.  Biden was never going to debate him, but he also got almost no votes, and the media barely gave him the time of day.

The 2nd reason were the "forever wars," in particular Ukraine and Israel.  One can debate that till we're green in the face, but there's no doubt that Donald Trump is a rampant isolationist.  And so they are compatible on that.

The 3rd reason, Kennedy said, was that his long time cause for removing chemicals from the food supply (and of course vaccines).  Now this is the one that makes no sense.  Granted I am 100000% with him on food processing, a completely unnecessary process that involves additives which are making people obese and sick and do NOT happen in most of the rest of the world, as they don't allow this.  The vaccines are another story, but to pretend that Trump is going to stick a knife into the food corporations is completely comical.  He won't do squat, nor would he ever challenge big pharma.

Anyway, as I stated the other day, I do not believe RFK's endorsement will do much of anything.  If Ukraine is THAT much of a problem for you, you're already with Trump.  Nobody cares about who the DNC or RNC allows to get onto primary ballots.  However, the "free speech" aka anti-woke crowd is again, already converted to Trump.  Food processing and forced vaccinations, regardless where one stands on those, are not major issues.  The food one should be, but this is America after all.

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Slider_Quinn21 wrote:

I basically watched nothing from the DNC this week - it's just been a bad week for down time.  Sounds like Harris' speech was good enough.  I saw a little roundtable of undecided Pennsylvania voters, and all but two of them were convinced to vote Harris after the speech.

She said she would schedule a national TV interview before the end of the month.  Hopefully she does that - it's free publicity for her and super important, especially coming off the DNC.

Night 3 was pretty good.  Bubba went a bit off script and rambled.  Tim Walz was great. 

Night 4 was superb.  Steady stream of successful governors, Republicans, even cops.  Kamala gave what I would call a "I'll run through a brick wall for you" speech.  When I was screaming for Joe Biden to get off the train tracks, like most I really had no clue what to expect from the VP.  The instant super star rise in the polls was a massive surprise.  Really amazing just how many topics she covered in that speech, barely missing a beat.  There was something for everyone, but the most forceful I felt was when she spoke about keeping a "lethal military" and defending allies and standing up to dictators.  Wow, look out world, you do NOT want to mess with this woman!!!!!

I would say the theme coming from this convention is clear, Donald Trump is old, withered, and mentally bankrupt.  As it should be.  He is in serious trouble on September 10th.

Supposedly RFK Jr. is dumping his financially bankrupt campaign about an hour from now.  Most believe he will then appear alongside Trump in Phoenix, although this hasn't been confirmed.  If he does that, frankly, he will need a divorce lawyer.

I'll try not to spoil anything, but the gist of The Acolyte's problems are just simply far worse than what has plagued 2/3 of the live action Disney+ Star Wars offerings.  Ignore the concepts, it's all about the execution.  The Acolyte was maybe the most poorly executed genre series I have ever watched, and goodness I've seen some bad ones.  Having Jedi who lie or stray from the strict teachings, cover things up, and get screwed for it, not a stretch.  Presenting a story for how that plus other factors could lead impressionable "good" people to the dark side, again, not a stretch.  From the outside or the 10000 foot view, seems very acceptable to that franchise.

Where it went wrong was simply in what the viewer actually had to see and hear, and as the season wore on, painfully struggle through.  These kinds of stories are not unique to Star Wars, they are as old as the Bible after all.  They should not be difficult to write, and interweave into a specific plot.  And yet, the writing and directing team on this show managed to take what should have been a very simple story, and turn it into utter nonsense.  From start to finish, and it does do quite a bit of time shifting, the motivations of the characters seem to shift moment by moment, with little explanation.  Worse, they present a number of new and interesting characters, who unfortunately, don't make it out of the season.  Huge mistakes on their parts.  Plot holes everywhere.  Then you have the intentional retconning and defecating on franchise canon for no reason at all.  It became comical. 

Worse yet, so to film segments featuring well known actors effectively mimicking scenes from their prior work.  Inexcusable to have Carrie Ann Moss, who's incredible talent was wasted, doing a fight scene essentially as Trinity was absurd.  I instantly thought of John Rhys-Davies' annoyance with the shameless rip off of The Last Crusade's invisible bridge during Into the Mystic.  Just brutal.  I will say though that at least The Acolyte, as stupid as it was played out, was not without energy and excitement at times, a far cry from the dreadfully dull and disappointing Ahsoka.

Well, The Acolyte was canceled.  This has set off a wave of social media criticism from its defenders, who accuse Disney of silencing "people of color, women, LBGTQ, etc." from the body of Star Wars.  Yet again, what those folks fail to comprehend is that diversity and equity does not by itself mean success.  The actors and production staff on the series, who I felt were all top notch, were failed by the horrendous writing.  That comes directly from the top, where showrunner/creator Leslye Headland deserves full blame for producing such a disjointed pile of dung.  Frankly, I think the cancelation proves that good intentions cannot overcome bad results, especially when you spend $180 million to lay such a critical egg.  This comes on the tail of a string of really terrible story telling, and direction from Disney + on this franchise.  Obi-Wan, Mandalorian/Boba-Fett, and Ahsoka all featured tremendous characters that were muddied by increasingly slow-moving, vapid, and boring episodes, painfully stretched out to meet an artificial episode count.

Slider_Quinn21 wrote:

The writers didn't see the show as a long-term project.  They didn't expect it to be successful and when it was, they knew it couldn't be sustained at the same level.  The writers knew as early as season 2 that they weren't going to be able to make the show last forever.  There were just two problems - it was a monster hit that ABC didn't want to let go and shows just didn't operate like that back then.  Nowadays you can have a show like Three Body Problem that's set for three seasons and that's it.  Back then, shows were on until they ran out of steam or until something like Friends or Seinfeld where everyone just decides its over.

To their credit, the writers tried to make it work a couple different ways.  They introduced the Tailies to give more backstories they could show.  They introduced Nikki and Paolo as a way to show a new perspective and maybe even show flashbacks to the Island.  They introduced Others like Juliet that could have their own flashbacks.  Everyone (including the writers) always points to the "Jack's tattoos" episode, but that was after they'd tried a bunch of different things.

I'm well aware.  In fact, one of the prior iterations of our Sliders bboards had a trove of discussion throughout the run of the series.  It was led primarily by who else, the Informant!  Unfortunately, those are long, long gone now.  As I said, I enjoyed the series throughout, including the end.  However, in hindsight, I also found the 2nd half to be rather pointless to the overall arc.  This happens all the time with series like this.

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After an atrociously poorly managed first night, featuring an embarrassing slight to the current President, night two was a bit less disjointed, and featured three terrific speeches by Doug, Michelle, and President O.  Michelle brought the house down with a one liner (as she's become famous for) about "Trump applying now for one of those 'black jobs'"  I nearly fell off my chair.  Obama himself was typically on a roll.  I'm not sure how many people on the East Coast saw them, as once again, they all went on it seemed past 10PM.  Truly hope the rest of this campaign is better managed than this.  Just hope eyeballs in WI, MI, AZ, and NV were watching, because most of PA were asleep, again.

Professional pro-Gaza protestors have literally been walled off from the proceedings outside, while more of the news yesterday was generated by Nichole Shanahan, Kennedy's running mate, complaining on a podcast that their campaign was effectively finished after Biden dropped out.  She even opined openly about whether to simply quit and endorse Trump.  For those who would immediately be freaked out by this, I'm not one of them.  RFK Jr., who is currently blaming Democratic PAC's for keeping him off state ballots for technicalities (has a point actually), has his remaining support with true independents, and those who refuse to support either party.  Yes, some supporters would wind up voting Trump, and might do so whether he stays in or not.  I would argue that most simply won't vote, largely feeling betrayed if Kennedy backs anyone else.  I'm unconvinced he would do that though.  Trump and Elon Musk has been babbling about making him "Secretary of Efficiency," a post that does not exist, cannot exist without Congress, and thus is completely meaningless.  Trump would never go through with an RJK Jr. appointment, despite railing against lobbyists the other day.  Trump is betrothed to a laundry list of billionaire CEO's that collectively would become targets for Kennedy's ideology.  I feel like Bobby knows this, he's not an idiot. 

-----------------------------------------------

QuinnSlidr wrote:

That is true. He does have every right to speak critically of a politician. Just like I have every right to say that he is wrong.

Would you want to stay silent when someone says 2+2=5? It's not just a disagreement in that regard. He's subtly saying that he hates black people and women without actually coming out and saying so. Notice how he disparaged the women and black speakers but praised only the white man speaker? You can't hate both women and black men and praise only the white man without being a racist and a misogynist.

That's not going to stand with me.

PS: Hillary is controversial (among Democrats) because of her backhanded tactics, not just political positions.  She drove millions of people to Donald Trump for Heaven's sake, because they viewed her as corrupt and conniving.  Even my old man, a life long Democrat, skipped that election due to how much she displeased him.  I understand having her speak, but at the expense of Biden, completely stupid.  BTW, despite my hatred of black women, I found the best, shorter speech of that night to have come from Texas representative Jasmine Crockett, who went viral for putting Marjorie Taylor Green in her place during a hearing.  Sorry, Warnock went TOO LONG and his preacher rabble rousing does nothing for independent voters.  Andy Beshear, a white guy, was also boring.  The point remains, the current President deserved to be given the primary speaking slot, and the DNC screwed up.

My opinions remain in line with my stated viewpoint since this election began, defeating Trump.  Had I had yours, Joe Biden would still be in this race and well on his way to a double digit loss.

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QuinnSlidr wrote:
Grizzlor wrote:

Celebrity endorsements do nothing.  The polls are going to fluctuate, and they each have their own weighting and methodology, to overlay onto the sample results.  This is why I don't get caught up in them, or check on them. 

Somehow I'm still awake, very good speech by President Biden.  I didn't watch most of the rest.  Why is Hilary Clinton STILL given prime time?  Poor Biden didn't get to speak until 11PM Eastern.  I thought the Warnock speech took forever and was useless.

Hillary nailed it with her incredible speech, you anti-Hillary biased shill. If you don't like dems, perhaps republicans are more your thing?

The reason why Hillary is given prime time is because she is still doing important work to move the democratic party forward. She still won the popular vote in 2016 by 2.9 million votes over Trump (Hitler). If it weren't for the electoral college FRAUD in 2016, she would have been president. Not that horrible excuse of a human being.

And oh yes, both Hillary and Warnock were excellent.

You have absolutely zero knowledge of these individuals and their speeches to even bother commenting with your own uninformed opinion. And it shows with your ridiculous, asinine comments that I find zero value in reading when all they amount to are shallow attacks against dems. And you still wonder why I think you're a republican plant operative trying to claim you're democratic? It's because of comments like these.

Why don't you stick to polls?

You sound ridiculous.  Hillary blew that election, entirely of her own regard.  There was no fraud in 2016, don't sound like a MAGA tool.  She also ran a particularly nasty campaign against Obama, then later Bernie, and made far more enemies among voters with her entitlement.  She is an electoral LOSER, who the party needs to finally GET OVER.  They just don't understand how voters just can't stand her.  AOC had more business speaking than her, at least she's still in Congress, and popular with the youth.  Again, nonsensical that the PRESIDENT is forced to speak in the middle of the night because these nobodies or has been's hogged the stage. 

Meanwhile, my "shallow attacks" are WARNINGS son.  When you're busy balling your eyes out in November, I'll be shrugging "I told you so."  You mercilessly screamed at me for pointing out the OBVIOUS with Joe Biden for months.  Biden would have lost this election by 10 points!  He finally relented and quit, and gave the DNC a shot.  I guess I was a GOP plant for that one?  Or that I was also correct that Trump would avoid nearly all legal entanglements. 

Can only pray that Obama steers this convention back to sanity tonight.

LOST is one of those shows where they just simply ran out of good ideas.  It probably should have ended after like 3 seasons, but they wound up gaining cast members by constantly time shifting, and it became a convoluted mess.  The writer's strike really screwed things up with big hiatus.  I would put the first three seasons (pre-strike) up against any genre show there's been, especially anything with a mostly linear continuity.

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Celebrity endorsements do nothing.  The polls are going to fluctuate, and they each have their own weighting and methodology, to overlay onto the sample results.  This is why I don't get caught up in them, or check on them. 

Somehow I'm still awake, very good speech by President Biden.  I didn't watch most of the rest.  Why is Hilary Clinton STILL given prime time?  Poor Biden didn't get to speak until 11PM Eastern.  I thought the Warnock speech took forever and was useless.

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Celebrity endorsements are completely worthless. 

To be honest, both campaign's plans this week to improve "affordability" could get major eyeroll's from voters.  Trump babbled about bringing down "energy prices," something the federal government has zero roll in.  He once again proposed 10-20% tariffs on imported goods, which would cause inflation to explode again.  He's an empty suit.  Harris is going to propose federally imposed price fixing on food and medication, which unfortunately for her, is unconstitutional and there's plenty of economists who will debate whether price controls work anyway.  You'll see aggressive negative tie-ins to say, Venezuela, which are infamous for them. 

Then we have the pair of them both pledging to ditch income taxes on tips/gratuities, which again, is not allowed under federal law, and plain pandering to voters in tip-heavy states like Nevada.  At least Harris' plan will not have loopholes for millionaires to latch onto, like Trump's.  She supports paid family leave and child tax credits, though, which are popular.

I guess dual pandering will just offset each other, although Kamala will start repeating her plan over and over.  That will at least push the narrative to the low information, less engaged swing voters, that she's "got something" to battle economically.  She's been comically criticized for giving the same speech everywhere she goes.  Isn't that the DEFINITION of a campaign?  Give the SAME promises wherever you go?  Her most effective line is "We're not going back," and that means looking forward.  There's continued slow trickle of positive news coming, and investments in clean energy continue nationwide.  Even though the facts/conditions favor a challenger to Biden's administration, the personality (Trump) is the WORST one to do it.  He can't even talk about the economy for more than 25 seconds before wandering into personal attacks.

The MSM are crying like babies because Kamala is mostly ignoring them.  GOOD.  Well technically it's not good, but the MSM vultures have lost all credibility.  When they are granted access, you just get screaming and chaos, and all they want to do are ask gotcha questions, or to discuss criticisms coming from the right.  They aren't looking to challenge a proposal with facts.

PS: Obviously thrilled that Trump would lose, but if Harris wins, her agenda is almost surely dead on arrival, given that the House may remain GOP, and the Senate is almost certainly going Red.  West Virginia is a goner, and while it looks good for Dems in swing states, and Sherrod Brown I feel will pull it off in OH, Montana is a tough one.  Tester has prevailed many times before, but it will be tough this time.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/busin … 235969843/

Paramount is completely imploding.  They just closed down their television studio division, in LA.  The CEO had them write off nearly $6 billion loss, due to the loss in valuation for its TV apparatus, as part of the Skydance merger.  Thus, it's tough to say what plans the Alex Kurtzman-led Paramount+ Trek will have beyond what's already announced for 2025.

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The key is that Trump voters actually get out and vote.  People have curtailed a lot of spending, on vacations, and other options, as expenses driven by inflation remain very high.  Not sure how anecdotal, but my gosh the number of brick and mortar chains of every kind that are closing or going bankrupt.  It's crazy, where are people working?  That's why I remain cautiously optimistic.  As dour and deranged as Trump will continue to be, he can very easily win.  I remain skeptical, because Harris could well accumulate the majority of late deciders, and STILL lose.  Trump's support is close to it's ceiling, but it's also rock solid, I do not expect slippage there.

Yes, George Lucas in a sense, wrote the EASY part, in the original trilogy, where the Jedi were dead.  Obi-Wan and even Yoda taught Luke very little.  Then he had to expound on that, but in the prequels, the Jedi were largely an "honor guard" for the Republic which was duped into wars, and then betrayed and taken over by Palpatine in a coup.  There's many historical allegories, and George is a history buff. 

What's happened since is another story.  No. George would not have approved at all.  Why?  Because his final contributions were the Dave Filoni-led Clone Wars and Rebels shows.  They portrayed Jedi very honorably, but also difficult to become.  Even the "underworld" HBO series that never got off the ground, wouldn't have cast the Jedi in a negative light.  Filoni's shows have not been very good, but I still felt that Mandalorian/Boba Fett/Ahsoka have largely followed George's inputs.  Andor is Jedi-less, but focuses on the sinister nature of The Empire.  GL would approve. 

Everything else that has been done lately, whether in the sequels, or on Disney Plus, are not what Lucas would have preferred, at all.  They've also been putrid.  The Acolyte is atrocious.  But this is the path Kathleen has chosen.

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The polls are surely moving into the blue corner, as well as the prediction models like Polymarket, Nate Silver, etc.  The RCP averages are still slightly in Trump's favor, though I expect that to change over the next few weeks.  Harris will be ahead; however, the reality is that unless Trump's numbers sink, it's going to be within the margin of error.  That means voter turnout, and voter enthusiasm, are going to decide this.  Harris-Walz seem to have supporters, and others, revved up.  There's a ways to go though. 

I think old timer Jeff Greenfield gets it right.  Then again, it's what many like myself have been shouting from the rooftops for over a year.  The polls could not have been more clear, Trump and Biden are TOO OLD to be President, according to the vast majority of voters.  That includes huge swaths that were fully committed to voting for either of them. 

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/ … d-00173406

Trump literally told someone the other day, "I am who I am," which means no, GOP backers will not be getting a disciplined candidate.

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Slider_Quinn21 wrote:

Its just frustrating because it was one of the primary reasons she went with Walz over Shapiro.  Maybe not the only reason but one of the primary ones.  They barely gave her 48 hours of good will over it.

I do NOT believe that at all.  By the way, Gretchen Whitmer lost the Arab-American vote last time, won the state of MI by 11 points.  If Harris can continue to prove she has a spine, that's going to go along way.  She and Biden are sick of Netanyahu, he's looking to start an Iranian war.  These are not serious people, this protesters.  They march around with Gays for Palestine signs.  Try being a gay person in Gaza.  Unserious.

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Slider_Quinn21 wrote:

I'm blown away that there were Gaza protesters at Harris' rally.  I seriously don't understand what these people are doing.  Trump has literally promised to jail them, and they're helping him win.

But I thought she handled it magnificently.  I think she also handled the "Lock Him Up" chants well.  As I've said, now that the trials aren't going to accomplish anything before November, we need to stop focusing on that.  Beat him in November.

They'll be all over Chicago next week as well.  VP Harris actually MET with the leaders of the Michigan "non-committed" movement before the Detroit airport event.  Some then proceeded to repeatedly interrupt her, until she finally told them off as one should.  These people would have been completely barred from a Trump event.  Unfortunately these people are completely incorrigible, and they have literally no home in major American politics.  Another squad member got dumped, being Cori Bush in St. Louis, by a great candidate in DA Wesley Bell.  She proceeded to have an on-stage meltdown.  Sadly the cannot be said of Europe, where pro-Hamas factions are rampant.

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Harris has taken a clear lead in polls like Marquette, Harris (no relation), and Marist.  Battleground's are still tied.  Cook Political Report has put all BG states back to toss up.

Walz is currently being "Swift boated" by Trump campaign chief Chris LaCivita, who did the same to Kerry.  The claims are audacious and stupid.  Walz needs to hit back.

Massive crowds this week at every HW stop.  JD Vance has been trailing them, with little to no following.  Where is Trump?  All he does is call in to talk shows and doesn't leave the golf clubs.  Advertising (TV and web) has trickled to a crawl.  They are clearly not going to open BG state offices like Biden (now Harris).  What the hell are they spending money on?

That brings us to Plan B.  Trump and friends have either replaced civil servants/officials or rules/laws in multiple states, with the purpose being an all out electoral count/certification battle following November 5.  Be prepared for a war.  They intend on selectively challenging precinct, county, and state vote counting and certification wherever they choose.  The "mistake" of 2020 was to try to stop it in Washington.  This time Trump intends on throwing out thousands of votes in a completely "out in public" attempt at stealing the election.  This is not hyperbole from me.  They have spent tens of millions on this effort.

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ireactions wrote:

Grizzlor's predictions when it comes to Trump's cases have been on point and accurate and it's pretty clear that it's up to the voters to take Trump down.

I take no pleasure in it.  When you grow up in the Northeast, you see a lot of corruption.  You throw enough lawyers and money at something, it's going to crack holes in the system.  The problem with these Trump cases is that even though most people know he's culpable, to prove it is not that simple.  Sometimes it is, but you have to get to that point.  The Republican Party has made it clear, our team is more important than the country, so they're going to protect Trump at all costs. 

Slider_Quinn21 wrote:

And Grizzlor, I'm willing to give Walz a chance.  I know VP doesn't make huge waves, but it just feels like Shapiro was going to hand Harris Pennsylvania.  In polling as a candidate himself, he was up 10 points on Trump there.  Even if a fraction of those people voted for Harris/Shapiro, she easily gets the most important state and the election gets so much easier.  And if it meant getting PA but losing MI, I'm cool with that.  She's polling pretty great in Wisconsin and then it would just be getting Georgia, North Carolina, or Arizona.  1/3 shot.

But maybe Shapiro as a surrogate is enough.  Maybe Walz gets the same number of votes that Shapiro would have gotten.  Maybe it doesn't matter. 

Like I said, I'll be annoyed today and then get over it.  I hope he has Sun Belt appeal because I still think she needs the Blue Wall plus another state or two.

Harris selected Walz because she felt he was the best partner.  I think Shapiro, being another former AG, was probably too close to the background of Harris.  She wanted something different, where she was lacking.  Walz has a strong progressive record in Minnesota.  Some of it is potentially problematic on the social issue front.  But he has a long resume, much longer than Shapiro, and of course it's comical to compare to Vance LOL.  Also, let's not ignore that Kamala learned a LOT from Joe Biden.  Biden and she are very close, and she wants that kind of partnership.  There is a report now that Shapiro called the Harris team at some point over the weekend, and was "struggling" with leaving his post in Pennsylvania. 

QuinnSlidr wrote:

Josh Shapiro really nailed it on his speech at Kamala's rally this afternoon. Amazingly well done.

That was a great slate of speeches.  Harris is a better story teller than stump speaker, I will say.  She's displayed authenticity.  Walz was as advertised.  What a great crowd.  The difference is so stark.  The crowd is energized the whole time, and Shapiro, Harris, Walz are all fired up.  Plus, they were SMILING, and really enjoying themselves.  This is such a stark contrast with the dour, doom and gloom, low energy, grievance-filled, anger session that Trump and Vance participate in.

The original movie was a masterpiece, if you ask me, there were just so many things going on in that script.  So many allegories and symbolism.  The score was unbelievable, Jerry Goldsmith, an absolute master, with how the music kept you riveted and was as frightening as anything.  The cinematographer was Leon Shamroy, who won Oscar for Cleopatra, the man knew how to use the camera.  From the wide shots of the landscape early in the film, to the close-ups when Taylor and humans are being rounded up, just breathtaking.  The original script ironically by Ron Serling presented a far more advance ape society, like the modern films, was too expensive to shoot.  So Michael Wilson, who effectively wrote Lawrence of Arabia, set it in a primitive society which worked perfectly.  Everything about that film worked.  Heston was Heston, with all those improvised one-liners.  Kim Hunter and Roddy Taylor were so charming, and Linda Harrison was astonishingly red hot as Nova.  So many themes.  It's one of my favorite films ever made.  How do you improve on perfection?  You really can't.  At the end of the day, again, I felt like Rise tried to go in a different direction with it, but the series inevitably HAD to move into the post-apocalyptic.  It's fine, they've made a lot of money making them, but as I said, the original tended to be about humans and humans with furry costumes, NOT CGI creatures which truly represent a different species.  It worked better the old way, kind of like how Star Trek aliens did.  They relied on dialogue not makeup.

ireactions wrote:
Grizzlor wrote:

"War" was flat out horrible, in fact, it was borderline disgusting, hated it.

Can you elaborate on why? I have never seen it and probably won't, simply because there is so much violence and horror in the newspapers I read that I don't need it in fantasy fiction as well. However, I am curious: if RISE and DAWN were setting up an inevitable conflict between two savage races, what made WAR cross the line for you?

My father is fascinated by war movies. I suffered through a few viewings with him, but I never enjoyed them and avoid them today. However, I am always interested in *why* people enjoy art even if I don't myself.

I love war movies, because they are about people.  The director's goal is to lift these characters briefly out of the hell they find themselves in, and to give the audience a taste of their humanity, good and bad, despite the conflict.  I suppose that movie did some of that, but it was very violent.  I actually attended the NY premiere for this movie, ha ha.  May have been the lone time I watched it.  Without spoiling, there are some interesting "choices" regarding the Simian flu that evolves the apes, that kind of retcon this series back to what the original series began with.  I suppose like I said, I just wasn't fond of the portrayal of the apes.  Realizing this is fiction and all, but idk it just seemed more palatable with the kind of makeup and lack of CGI back in the late 60's.  Heston was the all-American who was imprisoned by the facist apes, that's the allegory I took from it.  In this series, humanity is so horrible that it's been virtually destroyed, because of what exactly?  Very dour, you watch the movie and where the series ended up, and you don't feel good about us.  I harken back to my complaints about the lack of national pride.  You have migration all over the world, and people come in, and do not feel as though they are part of their new home.  People are just very angry, all the time.

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Slider_Quinn21 wrote:

Sure, but Harris polls worse than Biden in Pennsylvania.  The switch from Biden to Harris is the worst in Pennsylvania.  And Pennsylvania is a must-win state.  Even if Shapiro was second on the ticket, it's basically a super-endorsement of her as a candidate.  If 60% of people like Shapiro then there's gotta be a portion of the population of the state that would have Shapiro as the tiebreaker.  Biden won Pennsylvania by 80,555 votes.  It might be closer than that this year.  If Shapiro convinces 0.1% of Pennsylvania voters, that's 6,836 voters.  That could be the election.

But I'll support Walz the same way I would've supported anyone else.  Maybe he can have the same effect as Shapiro in Pennsylvania.  Maybe he won't have the same issues Shapiro would've had with his views on Israel and his religion.  Maybe it's better to have a white Christian male on the ticket to balance out a black woman.

But if they lose Pennsylvania, they lost it today.

First of all, Biden was polling baddd in PA prior to dropping out.  He was down 5-6 points, and she's even or ahead.  Second, Shapiro is not by himself winning her the state.  He was gifted an abject idiot of an opponent in 2022, and glided to the win there.  Let's not forget that Paul Ryan failed to deliver Mitt Romney his own congressional district!

My fear with him was he's too green, and perhaps overrated.  I also remain skeptical that Shapiro could have been a deal breaker in Michigan, where hundreds of thousands of Arab-Americans are still threatening to sit the election out.  Walz is an Amry veteran, teacher, football coach, Congressman, and just seems like he generates good vibes.  He has a significant social media presence, and has proven over the last month to know full well out to get yourself noticed on there.  He immediately entered the picture by blasting the phony Appalachian JD Vance to great effect.  I'm not sure which of these hopefuls would have helped Kamala "win" but Walz and Secretary Pete were the two best surrogates to govern.

In other news, the NY Times Sienna poll, which was not kind to Joe Biden, has Kamala comfortably up over Trump in the state of NY.  That state is obviously not up for grabs, but Harris has but Democrats back in the driver's seat around the host of suburban districts on Long Island and around the Hudson Valley region north of NYC.

ireactions wrote:
Grizzlor wrote:

Market already recovering.  Japan was up 10% overnight.

This is an area where I don't really know enough to comment, so I am grateful for your observations.

https://www.marketwatch.com/market-data/us

The most foolish thing anyone can do is to watch the stock market on any kind of regular basis.  You will go mad.  My view is the conservative approach, be in it for the long haul.  Second thing, there is a rule in politics.  NEVER tie yourself to gains in the stock market OR oil prices.  You have little control of either, and when they drop, you will be strangled by it.  Trump continues to flaunt the abject stupidity in this.  The #KamalaCrash nonsense is dead after less than 24 hours.  That said, the FED needs to cut rates and do it by the end of the week.

I revered the original Planet of the Apes movie, and to an extent the sequel "Beneath."  Great movies with incredible visuals and iconic actors.  The other films I was never into, but I did enjoy reruns of the TV show, which had more of the feel of the original film. 

The Burton film was an abomination that poor Tim should never have agreed to take.  As for the newer series, I felt the first one, Rise, was very hearty and just an overall fine movie.  Dawn was good as well.  "War" was flat out horrible, in fact, it was borderline disgusting, hated it.  I just don't care to see any more.  The Apes genre works with origin stories, but Apes fighting to dominate man is both weird and not very believable.  Frankly, the more we've learned about the great apes in nature, the less appealing these movies are.  All apes are majestic, sensitive, and amazing creatures.  They ought not be soiled by being given the worst aspects of man.  Frankly it would like trying to have the audience watch a movie about evolved dogs who are also evil.  Who wants to see that?

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Market already recovering.  Japan was up 10% overnight. 

Tim Walz was selected.  Kamala seemed to embrace him the best in the last part of the selection, and that's all that really matters.  He has a DWI arrest 30 years ago, after which he quit drinking.  I really knew nothing of Tim Walz, but he has done very well with rural voters, and my gosh he is just small town friendly on social media.  I've said before, the running mate is not going to prop you up, but Walz is a tremendous surrogate to have.  I would have been fine with Shapiro, but there needs to be chemistry.  Also, his selection would not have simply "won Pennsylvania," as that stuff rarely helps, even with a popular Governor in state.  He's not at the top of the ticket, which is what drives preferences.