Quinnipiac stinks, their polls are all over the map. They have been a highly reliable polling group in the past, . One pollster (forget which) was just caught "removing" samples from the entire city of Philadelphia. They were found out when they put a PA poll out showing KH in the lead with RV (registered) yet trailing with LV (likely) which made no sense. The LV results were missing the Philly %, so duh.
Simon is correct, and unfortunately RCP (who have never made themselves out to be impartial) continue to over rely on R polling, and often leave out other D leaning polling which have similar shoddy metrics. The polling continues to show that a verifiable % of Nikki Haley voters in the BG States (Granted many were simply naughy Dems) are supporting Harris instead. I saw a number that was maybe 9%. That's not a ton of people, but it's people nonetheless who Trump has chased off. And they vote. If you got off your butt to vote in a primary that was already decided, you are 99% sure of voting in the General. I hasten to call these folks simply "White College" voters as they are not simply white, but the traditionally strong Republican contingent of them are shaping up to move further to Harris than perhaps even Biden got in 2020.
Yes, Trump has made gains with union members, and with men of color. That's a concern. But I do feel like Harris may have picked up enough (or Trump lost) with other demos. However, here's the problem with that strategy. THEY DON'T VOTE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! If you look at the data, Harris is as I said, in better position with highly motivated voters. Trump is solid with those who traditionally, are not. The RFK Jr. crowd, the bro culture podcasters (Theo Von, Rogan, Barstool, etc, etc), the bitcoin morons, and worst of all, the tech billionaire crowd. These are heavy on men, men who are 25-45 years old, often single, often non-college, etc. They do not vote. Yes, Trump will do well with this group, well enough to make it closer than 2020 perhaps, maybe even squeak out the win. But the odds are not in his favor there. As I said, it is an ecosystem that the rest of the country's demographics simply aren't a part of. They are ANTI-ESTABLISHMENT, and by virtue, distrust the political process. They continue to trade conspiracies on every subject, attack proven experts, and spend way too much time on FanDuel. Trump has spent so much time attacking early and absentee voting, vote counting, certification, he's done immense harm to his own chances. This is why the campaign's Plan B is to challenge the vote immediately, and cause chaos.