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ireactions wrote:
Grizzlor wrote:

Indecision and an air of failure continues to haunt this administration.  The secret service comedy act in Butler PA continues to worsen.  The shooter was able to use a drone to view the area, and hid his rifle and maybe a ladder days or hours earlier?  Rumors yes, but the stench of incompetence on Biden is just incredible.

Is Biden really the one personally organizing Secret Service protection details and deployments and security checks and personally scanning for drones and snipers and engaging or directly overseeing Secret Service fieldwork... ?

The other anti-Biden stuff is precisely the kind of talk we should expect and welcome in a vibrant democracy. There are no kings in America (yet), there should be no fear to speak opinions to and about power.

"The buck stops here."  No, Secret Service has been a mess for a decade.  They are forced to provide security for more and more people, and cannot seem to hire people to keep up.  Not directly his fault, but again, just more egg on his face.

QuinnSlidr wrote:

In the five hours since Kamala Harris was endorsed by Biden, small donors have contributed $27 million according to ABC Eyewitness News.

Most of that was likely what was held back several days ago when big donors had cut off Biden.  Beyond that, Kamala now gets the Biden campaign LLC, which is why she was the only reasonable choice to succeed.  But the fundraising still goes to my point, that the donor class viewed him as a dead end.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/2 … t-00170106

Biden "finally quit" after his closest advisors finally did their jobs and provided actual data.  They've been relying on national polls for months, hiding from how poorly the battleground state polls have gotten.  Virginia and New Mexico were now in doubt, and every other swing state was lost.  Not even Jill could spin that one, and honestly it's weeks late.  Had they been honest with the candidate, he wouldn't have probably strung this along so long. 

Slider_Quinn21 wrote:

It's not a stutter.  He looks old.  He sounds old.  And people have lost confidence that he can do the job, not just right now but in four years.  People don't generally look or act younger as time goes on, and this isn't a race about who can do the job right now.

I'm not saying Biden can't win, but he really slipped up on the biggest stage.  And the polling has really dipped in the last month.  I don't know how he was going to convince people that he's not old.  None of the work he did was turning things around, and we were nearing the point of no return.

Harris is young and energetic.  She's a woman who can possibly energize women in the election during an election where women are already at the forefront.  And if she can pick a strong VP, it could be a really good ticket.  There are a bunch of "double haters" of Trump and Biden, and now the Democrats have an alternative for them both.

I'm not discouraged at all.  I'm nervous, but I think we're in better shape right now than we were this morning.  I'm going to be fascinated to see how the polls move now that it's not a hypothetical that Harris will run.

Can Kamala bring this back?  I really don't know.  Every major Democrat, and delegates have quickly backed her.  The party will be united (mostly) by November now.  That was the single biggest reason to oust Biden.  His standing was "solid" compared to Trump among Democrats but nobody else.  Can Kamala convince the morsels who have crumbled to Trump, to reverse course?  Will see, there's not a lot of time.  Biden left a bit of a mangled campaign.  It was losing all over the place, and staffing was slow due to the President's micromanaging.  Kamala has not polled well either.  Status quo says she loses, needs that break out moment, where the script flips back to Trump being the referendum.

I found it hilarious how MAGA world flipped out over this, immediately calling on Biden to resign, which would probably be far more beneficial to Harris.  They're pissed that their walk in the park in November isn't so sure now.  Trump whining about suing Democrats because his Biden ads are now worthless.

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To SQ21, I'm voting Biden even if he's a brain in a jar.  Albeit I find him more and more incompetent, and without a firm, realistic plan on several issues.  Trump could promise me Margot Robbie won't get my vote.  He tried to steal an election, it's an unforgivable offense.  So I'm the wrong person to ask.  The race is decided by like 4% of the voting public which remain very depressed with both candidates.  As for replacing him, a reporter pointed out that Joe is notoriously slow about these kinds of decisions.  This has plagued his Presidency in fact.  He will not fully commit and uses incremental and half measures that only make things worse.  Biden will drag this out. It's not even ego, it's just a guy who lacks decisiveness.  AOC made a big thing about there not being DNC rules for a mini convention.  No duh, that's why the committee would vote on new rules when it opens!!!!  This happens all the time.  Every day more and more Democratic officials tell Biden to stop.  By the end of the month, it will be overwhelming. 

Indecision and an air of failure continues to haunt this administration.  The secret service comedy act in Butler PA continues to worsen.  The shooter was able to use a drone to view the area, and hid his rifle and maybe a ladder days or hours earlier?  Rumors yes, but the stench of incompetence on Biden is just incredible.  The public's unpopular standing with Biden has been unchanged throughout every poll for three years.  They don't approve of his decision making , age, and capacity.  Yes 14 million Dems cast a vote on basically a one person ballot.  Big deal.  Poll them.  A clear majority want him out. 

Now, the national polls are showing a slight jump for Trump.  State polls still in his favor.  However, the indie consensus for his speech was very poor.  Absurdly long, too nasty, and put ppl off.  This guy remains beatable but unfortunately Democrats have to be unified and they need a gotcha moment like Harris blistering fatso on stage.

I've been consistent on this.  Biden screwed his party and this the nation by running again.  The polls were incredibly bad even two years ago.  Had Trump declined he would have been creamed by Desantis or Haley.  He prevented an open primary of several hopefuls, and made this a smoother and stronger process.

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Nancy Pelosi, Hakeem Jeffries, and Chuck Schumer have all privately told Biden he needs to step aside.  He will lose and take the party down with him.  He's reacted defensively, and rather than providing a medical certification that he's not suffering from any kind of malady, besides COVID, he babbled that only a medical condition would cause him to quit. Terrific. 

As I have said before, the polling is often lazy and half assed, resulting in bad sampling.  However, there's also internal polling the parties do.  Democratic leadership have seen them, and they are quite fearful.  I cannot see Biden quitting now.  He's literally ignored the pleas of everyone BUT the Bernie Sanders left, who voter wise don't like him at all.  "Genocide Joe" they call him. The mouthpiece of the DNC is Jamie Harrison, a fraud from South Carolina who hoodwinked millions from stupid Democratic donors pretending he had any chance in a Senate election in SC which he got blown out in.  There's almost no one still backing Joe.  It's absolutely insane.  I've never seen anything like it. 

As for the Trump shooting, the reporting on how badly the Secret Service performed there is plain shocking.  The shooter was marked and known but allowed to hang around.  So many red flags missed.  They reacted with delays and poor coordination.  The star of this mess was a female agent who looked totally overwhelmed.  Another situation where the Biden administration looks amateurist.

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SQ21, you questioned who/what MAGA is?  MAGA is not that large as ireactions has often pointed out.  I'll tell you what Trump's "appeal is." Secure borders, prosecution of criminals, cessation of wokism, wars, and economic/spending***  Here's my Devil's Advocate on that.....

*** is because obviously Trump's spending was over the moon, though largely due to COVID, but his tax cuts ballooned the deficit.  He continues to maul Biden on the economy.  Biden has been an utter disaster on immigration, and every city in America's local news (which ppl still watch) is inundated with often astonishing violence from migrants who have flooded in over the last 2-3 years.  This was an abject and foolish failure.  Biden owns it.  Criminal prosecutions are not really his purview, although ironically liberals trashed then-Senator Harris because she was the AG and prior prosecutor in California, and get this, she prosecute far too many criminals for their liking!  This has been without question a complete mess for liberals since George Floyd and the pandemic, as retail stores continue to go out of business, and 75% of shelves are behind lock and key, with shop lifting running amok.  Biden has presided over seemingly unending conflicts in Ukraine and Israel.  Again, I understand we don't control either side, but we're PAYING for them!  He should either be going all in and backing our allies, or put the brakes on, and end them. 

The GOP primary featured a large percentage of Republicans who chose someone other than DJT.  That was a big point of concern for him.  His shooting and whatnot I really feel has lessened that to almost nil.  GOP voters will be more motivated than ever.  Biden voters will not, in fact, they are getting more despondent by the week.

Adam Schiff (reportedly on a call) again lamented that Biden will take the House and Senate with him.  I cannot speak on the House, but Dem Senate candidates are still holding steading in polling, while Biden disintegrates.  Will ballot splitting be that significant?  It might but I also think Rep Schiff is not a fool, and has to realize that a depressed Dem turnout will be a disaster for their overall chances. 

Biden continues to do one of two things.  He either looks frail, or he looks ready to explode while shouting empty platitudes.  Nobody knows what he's even proposing anymore.  Besides putting "Trump in a Bulls Eye" another brilliant one.  His administration is rolling out federal judicial law proposals, including some kind of term limits.  Great, fantastic, where were they ON DAY ONE??  Oh, you'll never get 60 votes in the Senate to pass any of them.  Trump is even warming to electric vehicles (with Elon Musk's $$$$ rolling in), and both he and JD Vance support Plan B pills and other measures.  Again, I ask, what is Biden selling these days?  I truly don't know.  All he ever does these days is get on TV to speak about the latest mess (his or the country's).  This campaign is up against a maniac populist who has his support totally shored up.  Biden cannot speak well enough nor avoid gaffes long enough to be heard.  Again, ask Mr. Rosenberg what state polls Biden is winning????  Those are the ones that count, the national horse race does NOT!  Get out of the way Joe!!!  Elevate Kamala, she'll pick Shapiro or Polis, and let's go.

PS: Not sure what the 11th Circuit will do, but no surprise Judge MAGA Cannon tossed the case, she had no intent on ever having it go through.  Trump is the luckiest SOB there's ever been.

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The shooter seems to mirror the same rinse and repeat background of so many of the school mass shooters.  Young, suburban, white kid with no friends, parents who seem oblivious, some type of clinical depression or mental illness, and of course, a fetish for guns.  Quite ironic that Trump is shot by one, after he dismissed calls for gun control repeatedly.

I think it's over, for the same reasons.  Perception, low information, and low voter engagement. MAGA are absolutely in ecstasy.  Their precious martyr and messiah escapes death once again.  Crimes don't stick to him, and neither do bullets.  They will be voting in bigger numbers than ever, it's going to be a huge turnout problem for down ballot Dems. 

Meanwhile, the Biden campaign, who have focused most messaging on Trump being a danger, will be forced to tone down or even eliminate that talking point.  Sorry, I don't see reliable state polls that show Biden ahead, and many are shockingly bad.

Trump claims he has completely changed his RNC speech, to something uniting and consilatory.  I suppose if he has really shifted from doom and whining about 2020 or his court cases, or demonizing political goes, that will gain him more sympathy.  You're going to see a raucus GOP convention.  The DNC is likely to be a cluster marred by Gaza protests and a crowd on pins and needles.  I see little to be hopeful about.

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Trump was shot at today on Pennsylvania and lived.  Bloodied but played it up for the cameras.  Election is over.  He'll get a huge bump in the polls from that.  Play the sympathetic hero part.  May as well leave Biden on the ticket, he deserves the humiliation coming.

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/181225857 … g&s=19

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QuinnSlidr wrote:

Can you please point out the posts on this board in which you criticize Trump? Because I don't see any scrolling past this entire page. It's all Biden bad, Biden bad, Biden bad.

Not a single word about how terrible Trump's mental health has declined.

You just quoted a post where I spent a paragraph describing Trump as insane.  You will not find many alive who detest him worse than me.  Trust me.  I hate him so bad that I am willing to throw the kitchen sink at this election.  Trump is irrelevant to this discussion, he'll be there whether it's Biden or not, angrier and more dour than ever.  If one ONLY watched Trump's debate footage, you would see a maniac.  I think I said that.  Unfortunately, there's a lot of unengaged voters and people in this country who (polls show) do not view Donald Trump as a Constitutional terrorist.  They view his 1st term as an economic success, forgetting that he stood by while it cratered due to a virus.  I'm just stating what I feel is the truth.  Biden has failed to invigorate those fickle voters.

Slider_Quinn21 wrote:

I wish this was handled differently.  First off, I wish that Biden had chosen not to run in the first place.  He had talked about being a bridge president in the first campaign, and I wish he'd stuck to that.  Unity a year ago would've been preferable to this.  Second, I wish Biden would realize which way the wind is blowing and gracefully bow out.  I maintain that LBJ isn't seen as some sort of quitter for not running for another term.  When you look at LBJ's speech, I think it makes so much sense for Biden - he can focus on spending his last six months in office completing the work he'd started on and he can let Harris (or whoever) campaign.

The handling goes back to the type of office Biden runs.  He has insulated himself, and his campaign are yes-people who have not been honest with their own boss.  He's gotten poor advice.  But Joe Biden believes strongly in himself, you can't knock him for that.  Sadly, as more and more active Congress people continue to come out against his candidacy, it's just going to get more and more embarrassing.  The polls and approval ratings have terrible for years now.  Biden continued to push a strong agenda, but so much of it has faltered.  What it's really shown is that the Presidency is really not very effective in resolving economic issues.  Maybe in the past, not now, not with all the globalism.  And don't forget, "we're just primates who wear pants."

pilight wrote:

This press conference is not helping Biden.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GSPtL_iX0AAePCX?format=jpg&name=small

In all seriousness, I don't think the press conference does anything.  There is a growing, semi-orchestrated push to get him to step off.  Biden is excellent on foreign policy, which was the gist of that presser.  Unfortunately, that subject is FARRRRR down the list of American voting considerations, especially in the swing states.  Like I have said, they are using his faltering communicative abilities as a crutch for the real reason Biden is being asked to depart.  His numbers STINK, they are appalled, freaking out he will take the House and Senate with him.  The Democratic backers have spent most of the last year or so squinting at the polls.  They finally got it through their heads that Biden is losing to Trump, and they don't see him making a 4th quarter comeback.  He is seen as wilted goods.

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QuinnSlidr wrote:

Mr. Grizzlor.....where's all your criticism about Trump's mental decline which has been a consistent concern?

You can't criticize Biden without criticizing Trump as well.

Otherwise, that makes you a hypocrite.

I criticize Trump's mental health constantly.  He's been clinically insane for years.  Republicans don't care.  Also, his insane speeches get zero media coverage while Biden (the actual President) is getting headlines.  If Biden drops out, the focus shifts to that whacko.  Trump's jerkoff behavior is not going to lose him votes.  He's lost whatever he could already. 

George Clooney, who just hosted a massive fundraiser for Biden, came out against his fitness, and the Biden WH responded by claiming Clooney left the event and Biden took photos for 3 hours.  They sound like Trump.  We all saw the video where Obama "helped" Biden off the stage. 

MSNBC's Chris Hayes basically doesn't think he can win. 
https://twitter.com/allinwithchris/stat … 4195930321

Swing district Dems in my backyard, Biden now in trouble in.
https://twitter.com/JSweetLI/status/1811131360435917069

Chuck Schumer ready to jump ship.
https://www.axios.com/2024/07/10/schume … 4-election

The Biden debate fiasco wouldn't have mattered, if there weren't already major contention over whether he could finish out a 2nd term.  Why should voters be pressed into electing someone who is highly unlikely to do so, as he'll be 86.  His approval ratings are awful.  And Biden continues to run many, many points weaker in swing states as the down ballot Dems are.  What you've had is a long standing concern amongst Democrats about Biden's chances.

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https://twitter.com/GarrettHerrin/statu … 8132331755

Biden continues to be losing everywhere in Emerson Polling (on behalf of a Democratic PAC!)

@EmersonPolling
for http://DemNextGen.com

Nevada
Trump 47%
Biden 41%

Pennsylvania
Trump 48%
Biden 43%

Georgia
Trump 47%
Biden 42%

Arizona
Trump 46%
Biden 42%

Wisconsin
Trump 47%
Biden 44%

Michigan
Trump 45%
Biden 44%
11:04 AM · Jul 8, 2024

Biden's defiance will take the entire party down with him.  This is the actions of a deluded politician, almost Trumpian.  His letter to Democrats in Congress was not a call to action from a position of strength.  It was a cry for help from a weak and increasing desperate dead end.  Horse is out of the barn.  You are not putting this to bed, nor getting these donors, politicians, pundits, or reporters back in line.  These feelings were there, under the surface, for awhile.  His slip ups and just general aesthetics broke the dam.  Who in the Hell is Joe Biden trying to convince?  There's nobody left, outside of his traditional support amongst unions or urban voters.  The younger left don't like him to begin with. 

Biden is running (nationally) the WORST of any Democrat, in July, since 2000!

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TemporalFlux wrote:

I think at this point I wouldn’t believe anything CNN says.  They seem to just be making it up day to day.

CNN are like when you don't check socials while you're on vacation or out partying, see alerts that the world is on fire, and you pile on.  Only by then, the fire was extinguished.

That said, the issue are not Democratic voters, it's the independents (excluding Never T's) and low-info casuals, which at this rate we have no idea what % will vote.  Those are the people which Democratic insiders are afraid of.  How many, who poll after poll show a massive lack of comfort with Biden, will still back him?

Slider_Quinn21 wrote:

I still maintain that's why Kennedy is still polling around the same.  I think, when pressed, people are willing to whatever the alternative is, no matter who that is.

Agreed with your assessment entirely.  As for RFK Jr. that's a placeholder for respondents who just aren't into either candidate.  The majority of that % will not vote for him, and perhaps many won't vote at all.  As I said above, it's a really, really, really difficult number to hit on.  What will the actual aka Likely Voter % be?  You'd be a millionaire if you get that right (in the next cycle though lol). 

As for whether Joe should leave office, I think that would be a mistake, because then you're basically admitting he is not fit to serve, and they've been lying to the country.  As opposed to "admitting" he just can't win.

There is a very important Dem caucus meeting that will take place Tuesday in DC.  Many members are expected to make a case to Hakeem Jeffries which they want delivered to the WH, that Biden should step away.  A similar meeting of Senators was supposedly canceled tonight.  Unfortunately almost all of the reporting on this has been completely "unnamed" and I think impossible to verify.

However, idk if anyone caught Adam Schiff on Meet The Press, but he basically pleaded for Biden to go.  Said "he should be trouncing Trump at this point, if not for his AGE."  You also have multiple ranking members on major committees calling for the same.  Schiff said he "should seek out polling experts who are not close insiders.  If they say he's still viewed with a shot to win, then go out and work like hell to beat the SOB."

Clearly the Biden family wish to "run out the clock" here.  They've insulated themselves, and have positioned this all as an affront to THEM.  It's borderline delusional.  Again, the ONLY consideration from here on is not whether "Joe Biden," the ballot choice, has enough pull to win.  It's whether Biden the person will continue to derail the campaign with gaffes and concerns over his fitness?  They can chastise the MSM all they want, they are whores and vultures, everyone knows it.  But it's still the MSM!!!!  How else are they getting their message out there?  Why aren't they talking about a frigging FELON on the other ticket?  Because their candidate is THAT bad.  There are whackos who have this ridiculous conspiracy going that the sound engineers have been intentionally distorting Biden's audio during televised appearances including the debate.  This is lunacy.  Give the average American some credit here, Biden cannot make simple arguments for himself without babbling into lying and being incoherent.  He's the problem.  I wish it weren't the case, but it IS, there's no fixing it, and you either shove him out of their or not.  Which is the best chance to win?  It's very difficult to know, but the down ballot folks are incredibly freaked out right now.

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roulettewheel wrote:
ireactions wrote:

Oh. Well, I'd suggest you get in touch with Matt. That was really before my time. Also, I am not a SLIDERS historian. I am a SLIDERS fanfic writer.

I think at this point, we're all historians here.

While I'm still here, does anyone have a copy of Brad Linaweaver's "Sliders: The Classic Episodes" handy? Mine's in storage (whoops!) and I need a scan of the Tormé interview in there.

Sorry, I was AWOL for a few months.  I scanned and transcribed the interview section of the book earlier this year.

https://moccasin-agna-57.tiiny.site/

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From the ABC interview, good grief this is a HORRIBLE answer.

https://twitter.com/NikkiMcR/status/1809384004728000619

Biden acts like he's about to go on Wheel of Fortune.  Stakes aren't too big, don't worry about it. 

Trump, Biden, RJK Jr (now accused of eating a dog, sleeping with a minor, and 9/11 Truthing) are all too old.  That's not ageist, they've been around the block, and it's time to go.  Let the next generation get a crack AGAIN.  Obama was terrific, and we went back to the Boomers. 

Again, the issue with Biden is vote loss.  Not necessarily to Trump, but to apathy.  Democratic ticket NEEDS those votes.  MAGA will vote.  The press has completely turned on Biden's efficacy, and more and more Demo officials are quietly doing the same.  Axelrod,  Carville, Emmanuel, these guys know campaigning, they see the problems here.  I repeat, not a big Kamala fan, I think she overdoes it, but she will filet Donald Trump. 

Dr. Sanjay Gupta says Biden needs to undergo tests and release them.  Jesus Pooping CCCCCCC if THAT guy is saying it, you are sunk. 

https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/05/health/g … index.html

We cannot be answering these questions NOW!!!!! 

PS: Ireactions, in your last post, you posit on why Joe Biden has not quit.  Your postulating is probably accurate.  Unfortunately, he's also stubborn, and his wife especially are acting like this discontent are an attack on their integrity.  Well again, sadly, IT IS!  Several mega donors and others are really infuriated.  Some believe they've been lied to. 

I'm not sure if Kamala or any other Democrat can still win.  I think they have the issues on their side.  They just need a ticket that can articulate them, and campaign with VIGOR.  That's not Biden.  I really thought that Trump's depravity, and an increasing economy would push him through anyway.  I knew there would be gaffes and such.  I had not expected the POTUS to be unable to formulate EASY answers, and his team to blame a cold and later admit that the PRESIDENT is too TIRED to do his job at night!!!!

UGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

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Here's the question....is Biden's senility progressively fading away?  It's a serious and growing concern.  Especially for older Americans who have had the misfortune of witnessing this in their family members.  However, the White House naturally, and many Democrats have refused to broach the subject, because they view this as catastrophic to their chances at winning.  They make up ridiculous excuses, such as this week when it was said that apparently Joe Biden cannot operate after 8PM!  That is supposed to relieve the pressure?  They blamed his debate on JET LAG from 2 weeks earlier!  Come on.  Politics is about perception.  His debate was frightening.  That's on top of these widely distributed videos where the President looks ashen and blank.  He moves worse and worse.  The video with Obama on stage, or at that concert looking, again bluntly, like an extremely elderly person.  The GOP ragged him on this stuff, but now it's liberals saying it.  We need to ignore the source, and simply examine the evidence.  Biden, looks and speaks, like an old man with cognitive decline that is accelerating.  Frankly I have been quite shocked myself how poorly he's been in the last several months.  I used to scoff at the Biden bashing over his age and whatnot, but the last several months, I cannot keep the wool over my eyes.  He is impaired, and it's getting worse.  You're asking the public to ignore what they SEE, to vote for a man now, who may well be unable to serve a year a from now?  It's simply not fair on the voter. 

I said months, hell it might have been last year, that he should have stepped aside and allowed for an open primary.  The public polling was clear, they don't want EITHER of these guys on the ballot.  I said over and over, the party which dumps one of the geezers would have the inside line.  I still believe that.  Let Harris move up and pick up a Governor like Polis or Shapiro.  I'm not enamored with Kamala, but she can run on Biden's record, and will absolutely DEMOLISH the old fatso on stage.  We need a candidate with zest, who can speak for themselves and defend their record against the comical lies of the golf cart blimp.  We need a damn fighting chance here.  You have more and more Democratic politicians, former and current operatives, and donors who are completely freaked out.  They were skittish on Biden before, they are panicked now.  The calls will grow for him to step down.  Despite what his wife, or worse, his son, have been advising him to do.  Biden will be seen with EMPATHY by Americans not pity, and that will galvanize the Biden coalition. 

The Biden side says, you can't replace him, the others poll worse!  Nonsense!  They are NOT running.  When a person declares or wins a nomination, the polls quickly adjust.  You cannot ignore based on hypothetical's.  Many don't know who Newsom is, or Whitmer, hell I'm sure many voters don't really have a true opinion on Kamala Harris.  That all changes when the spotlight of the media coverage does.  You won't find more of a life long fan of Joe Biden than me.  I think he's plenty fine doing the job of President, which these days is not as intense as people think.  Obama and Trump also didn't sit there working day and night.  Joe cannot campaign for this job.  I truly cannot see what the alternative is now.  Trump is the EASIEST jackass on Earth to beat.  He is legit hated, the majority view him as a criminal, and his debate answers were Billy Madison level stupid, and often he was flat out NASTY.  He was caught on video the other day badmouthing Biden and then Harris, he will continue to run a mean spirited campaign.  That crap doesn't work, people on the fence don't like that tone.  It was one thing in 2016 when Trump just made fun of people, it's now in your face, Yankees' bleacher creature foul mouthed. 

I am repeating myself, but here's the best way I can liken it.  Yes, Biden can be presented in an ultra-controlled manner from now until November, to limit the gaffes and maybe get his message across.  That is NOT enough!!!!  This is not 2020.  Biden for the past year only seems to have speeches outside Philly.  He goes nowhere.  The White House have hidden him/blockaded him.  For a guy who is probably trailing Trump as we speak, this will not suffice.  You need a candidate who will go places, talk to people, charge up the base, the campaign teams, the donors, and will be shown on national television speaking clearly and decisively.  If he were up 5-6 points nationally, it might have worked out.  He's not, he's probably losing, has low approval, and vast majorities of Americans simply don't think he is capable doing the job.  The most clear reaction in polling was, Joe, time to go.

PS: SQ21 you asked about polls, just follow Political Polls @Politics_Polls they repost everything.  Again, a lot of them are of questionable integrity and mathematics.  538, Real Clear Politics, they all do averages as well.  Biden is losing most all of them.  My point on their reliability though is that Democratic Senator candidates seem to be AHEAD in these same states where Biden is behind.  I think this is where the voter is.  They don't want Trump, but between Biden's issues on immigration, inflation, interest rates, housing costs, and now a barrage of worries over whether he can actually perform Presidential duties, he's screwed.  Like you said, the margins were narrow even in 2020.  The red light is that Biden, in third party comparisons, is in the THIRTIES in many of these polls.  That is BADDDDDD!  These ppl don't want to vote for Trump, but their support of Biden is as thin as tissue paper now.  They likely won't vote at all, undervote, or whatever.  Those are lost votes the Democrats cannot afford to lose. 

PS2: I also have, unfortunately, continued to be proven right about Trump's legal cases.  They will all be delayed ad infinitum, he won't ever be punished.  The only avenue was to beat him.

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Preface: Biden is losing on the vast majority of polls, some are stunningly bad.  I read Rosenberg's Hopium thing, he is well meaning, and I concur that the polling is bad because it's way too Trumpy in who they're actually sampling.  That being said, I'm sorry, but they're not THAT far off, and not in the quantity.  aka they can't all be wrong, it's just math. 

First half: Might be the worst debate performance I've ever seen, of anybody, and Biden having it.  Trump is spewing nonsense, but he's coherent and Biden is horse and stammering badly.  He couldn't even win the abortion topic, and allowed Trump to go largely untouched on Jan 6th. 

Second half: Trump bitching about who tattled on his "suckers and losers" and these two idiots bickering over who's the worst President ever is just an embarrassment.  They wound up in a back and forth over their golf games.  Completely ridiculous.  Trump rambled, and Biden was slightly more legible when angry. 

Outcome: I do not see how Biden is the nominee.  His campaign claims he had a cold???  GTFO.  I warned about this months and months ago.  His largest hurdle was looking entirely incompetent on immigration, Afghanistan, and inflation, and Trump absolutely buried him with it.  Biden's retorts were mumbled and frankly it was startling to watch.  How can anyone seriously consider Biden for another four years after appearing like this?  He should have been replaced a year ago on the campaign.  Jill Biden, if she loves her husband, has to take him out of this campaign.  For his own dignity.  Joe Biden may be very good at making decisions, but you MUST be able to communicate in a campaign, and he is completely incapable of that now.

Slider_Quinn21 wrote:

I actually really enjoyed the final season of Discovery.  I wish there was more mission of the week stuff, but I thought the season was engaging and fun.  I maintain that the future setting is a much better playground for these characters, and I thought the show ended up being a lot of fun.

The finale, released today, has a lot of fun character moments and a couple fun little reveals.  After not loving the start of it, I think it's a nice inclusion in the canon.  It just needed to find its true home.

So did I, who doesn't like a treasure hunt?  I thought that allowed them to get away from the writer's block of the fourth season.  I am not sure another season made sense, because it would have likely gone back to the soap opera style of character interaction which fans I think got tired with.  Burnam and maybe Saru I felt are characters I'd want to see again, but not the others.  I never had a problem with the series outside of the absurdity they made of the Klingons.

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Congrats on the interview!  It's been so long, I'm not surprised Kari didn't have many deep thoughts on her time on the show.

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Grizzlor wrote:

3. Mask wearing is down to about as limited as pre-pandemic, from my personal observations.  The majority of mask wearers I SEE these days ON TELEVISION or IN PERSON seem to be the obnoxious, terrorist sympathizing, anarchists screaming "genocide" re: Palestine.

MODERATOR NOTE: This poster has declared that mask wearers are "terrorist sympathizing". It's one thing to call mask wearers obnoxious and anarchic. But this poster has declared that people who wear a mask for health and safety are supporting acts of mass murder against civilian populations.

This is unacceptable and will not be tolerated.

This poster will either apologize for this remark in his next post, or he will be banned for a week upon his next post.

Where did I call you a terrorist?  Yup, the majority of the "mask wearers" that [I'M SORRY], I MYSELF PERSONALLY SEE WITH MY OWN EYES, are the obnoxious, I will add, professional and amateur protestors that Americans are forced to indulge lately.  I literally prefaced the whole statement being my personal observation, but after re-reading I suppose if one opted to ignore that, well then I guess sky's the limit as to what could be inferred.  I should have been absolutely literal myself then, leaving no room for the incorrect interpretation, free of any nuance, by adding "IN PERSON or ON TELEVISION."  I "fixed" that above.

The great irony is now that the symbol of the face mask has become those who don't wear them for health reasons at all.  Which would entirely rule people such as YOU out of my social commentary.  I'm surprised you're not offended at how the pro-terrorist flunkies have subverted "public mask wearing" for those who are extremely health conscious and instead, made it a tool used for disguising the face of anarchists and anti-Semites.  Now, rather than respond and ask me to clarify, or something a civilized person would do, we get the moderator notes followed by another trip to the principal's office. 

Excuse me if I am a little perturbed that the radical left, which virtue signaled their adherence to their conformity by wearing masks everywhere and all the time, and then tried to publicly guilt or vilify anyone who chose not to, as if they were somehow inflicting violence over them.  Again, not YOU or anyone here, who had their own personal/medical reasons to do so.  No, these same "conformists," who's doctrine now ignores unprovoked violence on innocent civilians living in a democratic society, in order to score perverse, reverse racist "points" among themselves, by shouting colonialism and genocide.  Because after all, the fair skinned are the root of all evil on the planet, and to be blamed for whatever may occur.  They are incredibly warped, indoctrinated by professional idiots who teach at these institutions charging obscene money, not to mention social media platforms which are heavily influenced and programmed by hostile foreign entities. 

The same so-called progressive pols who cowardly stood by and allowed BLM protests to turn into riots, allowed city centers to be overtaken by professional anarchists and drug addicts, and to turn a blind eye to criminals causing billions in theft and damage; they're the buffoons who nearly cost Joe Biden the 2020 election.  Had they allowed a repeat on college campuses recently, you could kiss whatever chances he had bye-bye this time.  Thank God city and state politicians stepped in, and had the police toss these idiots out of there.  The President said yesterday "they cannot be allowed to cause chaos."  Joe Biden's gravest threat is losing the middle of the country, not the left.  Those who are willing to blow up his work on climate change, women's health, student debt, and infrastructure by supporting 3rd parties or even Trump, just so that they can conform with their lunatic comrades, be my guest.  Society is losing its grip on reality.  The younger generations have absolutely no concept of what an economy is, how it works, and why the traditional American way of life, as well as foreign policy, should be understood and supported. 


I do hope that clears things up, because I have had an absolutely awful week personally, and the tribulations of a message board visited by dozens is not going register a blip on my radar full of grief, stress, uncertainty, and ambivalence.  Didn't wish to shove any of that on anyone here.
..........................................................................................................................................................................

By the way, my past "false" statements, the ones that you jumped down my throat for, and tried to gag me over, were actually supported by major public health policy makers, including those in the United Kingdom.  They questioned the efficacy of large scale mask-wearing, and the affect of mask mandates on the spread of the virus, making my skepticism in line with the leadership of the supposedly highly respected British National Health Service.  Fine.  I really didn't care to discuss the subject further at the time, since it personally does nothing for me, and the pandemic was ending.  The science was not conclusive, I provided actual scientists questioning studies, and was crapped on.  Throwing a gag order on dissent and skepticism is entirely illiberal.

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RussianCabbie_Lotteryfan wrote:

This is sad and reflective of how hard it is to put together these events

https://xfilespreservationcollection.co … -fest-2024

The guest list was lousy.  Nobody is traveling to Saratoga for Mitch Pileggi (who does a million conventions) and a few other dinky names.  Saratoga is in the middle of nowhere, which again, nobody wants to go to, because you would have to fly in somewhere else then drive hours to get there.  Obviously the couple who run the museum live up there, but that's just a tough sell.  They had a better guest lineup last year, which was still overshadowed by PhileFest in Minneapolis a few months later that featured Chris Carter.  I went to something called X-Fest 2 outside Chicago in 2019, which had a nice lineup itself.

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I saw some of that series, Quiet on Set.  In general, I will say this, none of it surprised me.  Something very nefarious began at Viacom around that time, a rot from the top down.  Who should be surprised that it's teenage entertainment would be directed by such filth, and protected from the top by greedy executives?  Much of it happened in plain sight.  When MTV & VH1 desired higher ratings, they shifted programming from music into reality, and with it quickly any semblance of decency and respect.  Producers coached these participants/contestants into promiscuity, substance abuse, and occasionally violence.  They promoted raunchy behavior, as long as it sold. 

I myself was well beyond the age of Nickelodeon by time Dan Schneider, who I'd only known from Head of the Class, had taken over.  My favorite show was Hey Dude, which was dorky and wholesome.  Now, people like Brian Peck existed long before those shows.  He worked on Growing Pains, and there was disturbing footage from that.  The show runner of GP was convicted of having child porn in 2010.  Should Will and Rider be crucified?  Look, these pedophiles often get away with it for a long time, because they may be completely normal and friendly with 95% of the people who know them.  Often you don't suspect.  Will and Rider had a positive relationship with him, and naively supported Peck.  I understand the victim's family's anger at the time, but I'm not going to vilify them, they weren't the criminals. 

Is this a Hollywood problem?  Well it has been for decades upon decades.  It's simple, there's a lot of under supervised children working in Hollywood.  If you are a pedo, that's where you would wish to be.  As with the long history of child abuse from clergy in the Church, again, those with such depravity, are going to go hang out where they can have access to victims.

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1. I don't see what the Supreme Court is doing?  There was a case decades ago in which it was found in Nixon vs. Fitzgerald that the President cannot be sued for official acts, but could be prosecuted. 

2. I vaguely watch the polls, they are repetitive and boring. 

3. Mask wearing is down to about as limited as pre-pandemic, from my personal observations.  The majority of mask wearers these days seem to be the obnoxious, terrorist sympathizing, anarchists screaming "genocide" re: Palestine.

MODERATOR NOTE: This poster has declared that mask wearers are "terrorist sympathizing". It's one thing to call mask wearers obnoxious and anarchic. But this poster has declared that people who wear a mask for health and safety are supporting acts of mass murder against civilian populations.

This is unacceptable and will not be tolerated.

This poster will either apologize for this remark in his next post, or he will be banned for a week upon his next post.

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I mean, Nikki getting 30% in PA despite bowing out months ago cannot be a "great" thing for Trump.  That said, I saw some of the mail in results, and they were incredibly bad for Don, so one could assume that many people voted Haley, by mail, some time ago.  I dunno.

As for those podcast points....

1. "Even the idea that Trump isn't able to campaign right now may not matter six months from now."  I've said it before, being stuck in court for six weeks is crippling for a campaign.  The loss of time is massive.  If the US Supreme Court does not scuttle the DC trial, Trump will be sidelined up to THREE MONTHS during the summer, which will be a huge disaster for his campaign.  Nikki Haley has to be cackling about this.

2. "People that are going to care the most about this issue are people who were going to vote anyway, and the rest of the people that care are probably voting anyway because it's a presidential election." This is entirely the POINT of how you win elections.  You get the people most likely on your side, to physically DO IT.  This is not something to brush aside.  Enthusiasm is a major factor, and when the vote is very close, that is tantamount.

3. And Biden has way more feet on the ground to go out and convince people.  They basically said it was the same thing in 2016 - Trump had a much worse campaign effort than Hillary and she outspent him 2-1, but Trump got so much free media coverage that it didn't matter in the end.  First off, Hillary lost because she overspent in states she probably wasn't going to win, and ignored ones she was struggling in.  Biden is expanding the campaign, on certain issues, but that will help down ticket Dems anyway.  Having people working the campaign is really important.  Take Florida, which Trump will likely win, but Biden is spending there.  Trump's issue is that Desantis hates him, so he won't get much help from him, forcing his team to spend more than they normally would.  Biden is basically trolling Trump down there.

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Trump's $175 million bond was confirmed by the judge after some changes, so he'll be able to appeal without "losing assets."  That appeal likely will take quite some time, into next year I'm sure.

Hush money trial has begun.  I think that Alvin Bragg will present a fairly strong case with evidence and compelling witnesses.  The focus will be on accounting/business practices mainly.  Whether Trump wins or loses, he will be stuck in court, pouting, for up to 6 weeks while Biden is basically all over the place campaigning. 

Meanwhile, beginning at Columbia University and spreading to many schools nationwide, we have the pro-Hamas putrid protests, which I cannot expect will bode well for the DNC convention in Chicago this summer.  Frankly, it's probably going to be an utter disaster.

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Look, I think it's tantamount to support Ukraine, regardless of the November outcome.  Unrest is building in Georgia, and has been in Moldova.  Putin is a thug.  Israel vs. Iran hopefully shall tamp down again. 

Here's where I see this thing....

There is a clear move to Biden among older, whiter folk, particularly in the Midwest.  That was evident in the Haley vote, and these are people who vote all the time, and they are sick of Trump.  They were turned off permanently by January 6th, and these are the voters who Biden has to hammer away at Trump's election cabal from 2020.  A portion were two-time Trump voters, and losing anybody is a major problem for Orange.

Abortion access may or may not play a massive role in swing states, particularly Arizona now, but others to come.  Younger woman are the most likely, but they're already backing Democrats big time anyway.  What it will do is to fortify their resolve to get out and vote.

The youth vote?  Particularly young men of color.  They have clearly moved to Trump, possibly RFK Jr.  Will they even vote?  All hard to say.  You also have the uber-left who have Palestine on the brain, now upset with Biden.  Where do they go?  Definitely not Trump.  Could be a problem in Michigan, although the DNC has been very successful up there.

Lastly, there's the economy.  Most indicators are very good for Joe.  Inflation is a problem, no question, it's not going away.  Cost of living is a disaster, causing widespread angst, but people are still spending like drunken sailors, so what does it really prove?  I do think the casual, less-informed voter, is probably going to favor Trump to a degree on this.  Will it matter?  Like the youth vote, just really don't know how motivated these disgruntled are to vote?  They don't seem to like either candidate, and most likely will not vote.  Voting third party is a waste of time, and these are unmotivated people in the current climate. 

As "Mr. Hopium" Rosenberg continues to stress, it's been a good month for Dems, bad for Trump.

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Trump is either using the Charles Schwab cash account as collateral somewhere else, or he's wishing to continue earning interest on that $175 million.  Versus paying the bond fee.  I would say his underlying business "philosophy" is probably most notable, which is to avoid using your own money, for anything. 

https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2 … s-00152863

Meanwhile, the current DC crisis is whether Speaker Mike can get anything through his caucus of block heads?  He has bizarrely proposed to offer four separate bills to aid Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, and I believe the border.  Absurd considering, if they get a vote (will pass), they'd likely be repackaged as one bill that goes to the Senate.

Beyond that, a PAC affiliated with a bitter Kevin McCarthy are running ads against the GOP (and Dem) members who voted him out.  Ironically, the "American Prosperity Alliance" is running spots in GOP primaries against those who rejected the bipartisan Border bill, infamously scuttled by defendant Trump. 

The Supreme Court are currently hearing arguments from a January 6 defendant over whether the charges of Obstructing an Act of Congress should stick.  If they vote that down, obviously that would derail countless insurrection cases, perhaps including a good portion of Trump's.

Looks very dreary.  I thoroughly enjoyed the highly Canadian scifi series Dark Matter from about 10 years ago, though.  Unrelated.

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Slider_Quinn21 wrote:

My friend is a bit of an expert on evangelicals, and he wonders if the Trump messaging on abortion is going to drive some of them away.  To them, any surrender on abortion is unacceptable.  They didn't even like that he used the term "abortion rights" at all.  I don't buy it...maybe some of them will leave the top of the ballot blank, but I assume it won't actually matter.

Simply, NO.  Nothing will dissuade them.  One thing to keep in mind is this, the idea that "Evangelical" voters are in love with Trump is a misnomer.  They are Republicans mainly, so they vote that ticket.  They don't particularly care for them.  Furthermore, just because a block is ID'd as evangelical, doesn't indicate how "devout" one might be.  You could ID me as Catholic, but I don't practice at all. 

Slider_Quinn21 wrote:

I feel better than I did a few weeks ago.  And that's before you take into account any of the abortion measures (which makes Arizona more likely and even puts something like Florida in play) and left-leaning polling errors.

Food inflation continues to be an outright disaster, and that is driving blue collar voters away.  Arizona is back in play after that ridiculous abortion situation.  Trump is trying to have it both ways, he can't.  He boasted about Roe vs. Wade being stopped, and this is the result.  "Leave it to the states" is the most putrid cop out there's been, with regards to rights being abandoned.

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LOL, I follow Ron also.  It's nonsensical to blame President's for gas prices, and in most cases, inflation, given there's not a ton an administration can do about that.  However, the messaging from Biden is flat out terrible.  He needs to stop boasting about the economy as if it's absolutely supreme.  For many people, it's not.  Even if they're doing well, there is tremendous anxiety and anger over the ridiculous way in which you're being ripped off for every day expenses.  He has to be more empathetic. 

I saw something this morning about Biden will now openly question whether he has the authority to "close the border" with executive actions.  Trump tried many of these, they were usually shot down in court, but it took time.  Biden should have been issuing these orders 6 months ago.  Even if they are eventually stopped, who cares, at least you can say you tried SOMETHING! 

To me, the reason Biden approval is this bad is inaction.  He seems to just let issues fester and fester, allows the media to drive the entire narrative, gets beat up, and still does nothing.  Frankly the border inaction is just stunning at this point.  And while he has no control over Netanyahu, he looks completely sidelined.  To think, a US President has zero control?  Why are you still sending military aid without strings?  What is your leverage then?  Ukraine is another one, where there's been zero action on aid.  Yes, the GOP is holding it up, but the net result is a big negative for Biden, because he's let completely neutered.

Biden is never going to reclaim an advantage with the economy or immigration, he's sunk by close to double digits on those, and it's largely his own inaction, or worse messaging, to blame.  If abortion or threats to democracy creep up the latter in importance, he will do better.  It's really about what are the crucial issues in the months leading up to voting.

TemporalFlux wrote:

Looks like we could see a return to slightly askew projects that play off nostalgia.

https://www.giantfreakinrobot.com/ent/a … uture.html

As mentioned in the article, J J Abram’s homage to Spielberg’s E.T. with his film Super 8 could be an example.  Looks like Abrams may be attempting the same thing with Back to the Future.

HURL!  Abrams has no shame.

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RFK Jr. campaign director literally admitting they are running to allow Trump to win.

https://twitter.com/IsaacDovere/status/ … 5685517814

Never saw it, but I'm still upset to lose any kind of quality science fiction TV.  There's simply almost none of it anymore.

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=20TAkcy3aBY

Absolutely brilliant take down of those who are pushing for increased AI, by the maestro Jon Stewart.  These IT billionaires will destroy us all, and no, I'm not kidding.

Larry definitely crossed a line, but it was much more a line of common theatrical integrity.  Larry has no affiliation with Elmo, and was appearing on Today as a guest.  I realize it's a puppet, but it's incredibly disrespectful for another performer to basically unscripted trash someone else's for no good reason.  He's a huge star who will get away with it.  Look, I revere Larry David, the main is a comic genius, and that's what drove his impulsiveness in that moment.  But that was highly unprofessional, in that setting.

I actually agreed completely with Wheaton, about Larry's ego and lack of control, and to an extent how children could have been frightened by what happened to Elmo.  Granted most children are not watching Today Show if they can help it.  All right up until the point where he once again made it about HIM.  Wil once more is unrealistically theatrical, in comparing Larry's behavior to that of his abusive father's.  Larry KNEW he was screwing with a fake puppet/unreal character performed by another adult, on television.  This was not Dan Schneider screaming at a 12 year old actress on set.  It's completely exhausting that any sort of thing that happens must be completely abhorred and attacked because it "triggers" someone.  Or that one's opinions are unassailable because "I'm a victim."  We get it, you feel you were grossly abused by trusted family, it's terrible.  Clearly Wil has not moved on at all, and his entire world view is shaped by who does or does not remind him of his parents.  He's miserable, it's very sad.

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hmm, didn't realize Coogler was pitching a reboot.  I think the obvious focus has to be on AI, which is IMO the gravest threat to humanity ever created.  Aliens and other such traditional conspiracies are no longer believable.

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And few if any will change their minds.  If you have any sort of acceptance of Trump being the psychopath he is, but that his "policies" somehow helped you, there will be no changing of minds.  I think the greater risk is that people will simply not vote against Trump.  They will stay home, or will vote for a bigger nutcase like Kennedy.  Biden is not getting those voters.  They think he's too old, and blame him for inflation and crimes of migrants.

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Yes, Biden now has the support of women by a 2 to 1 margin, although he's flipped the other way with men.

There was a polling report that between 2020 Nov exits, and now, Joe Biden remains around 40% with white folks.  He's lost very large % with Hispanic and black "voters."  That is where the overall polling has changed.  Now, is that real?  I still say that some of that has to do with outdated polling metrics.

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At least some of them get prosecuted.  New York lets countless violent offenders right back onto the streets.

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Slider_Quinn21 wrote:

The justice system jumped out of its way to protect Donald Trump again today.  It's outrageous how he continues to claim he's being persecuted when he's probably the most protected citizen in the world today.  He just never faces any consequences for his actions.

Let's be honest, how many times have you seen a jury award $700 million in damages against a company, only to have that appealed down to $15 million?  It pays to be wealthy.

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I would say that The Spinners were the bulk of the inspiration, given that Tracy considered himself a "Philly" guy, and they were part of the Philly soul/doo-wop scene back then.  The Tops were a Motown group, and originated as far back as the 50's.  The viewer technically had to "suspend" belief a tad when it came to Rembrandt Brown, who in actuality would have been even older than Arturo, had he actually been a 60's soul/RnB crooner, in the style of the songs that Tracy haphazardly concocted for season 1.  However, the character likely was "just out of high school" in the early/mid-70s when the Topps hit it big.  Maybe not fully in line with what actually went down in music back then, but it's a TV show after all.

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https://nypost.com/2024/03/23/us-news/d … rank-lutz/

Pollster Frank Luntz claims that AG James seizing Trump properties will help him in polls.  I'm not sure it will matter either way.  Unquestionably the Colorado stunt was baseless and counterproductive, but to me, I just don't think people care.  Gloating over what the AG does to Trump really gets us nowhere.  He's likely to be dictator this time next year, so whether he no longer owns a building or a golf course seems awfully petty and insignificant.

“I say this to the Attorney General right now, if you play politics on this — this is what the secretaries of state did in Colorado and what they did in, I believe, is Maine. His numbers went up in both states,” Luntz said.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/22/politics … index.html

Here's more headaches with polling, just in Michigan.  CNN released a poll showing Biden being crushed by Trump, in line with another January poll of that state from another pollster.  Without boring everyone with numbers, this poll seems to claim that voters under 35 favor Trump by a wide margin, and "voters of color" showed a huge move away from Biden.  These could be accurate, in which case, Biden is likely to lose as badly as John Kerry.  Is that simply the younger voters being so disgusted with both candidates?  Keep seeing these polls showing a massive, almost inconceivable shift from D to R among both groups nationwide.  However, electoral results continue to dispel this?  Again, I continue to question the metrics, because it's likely very difficult to get a real read on those demos.

However, this is pertinent I feel, and goes to the potential notion that youth voter apathy will drive them towards throwaway to Kennedy.  I personally believe these people, who are massively undecided, simply won't vote.

A hypothetical four-way matchup including Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and Cornel West in addition to Trump and Biden suggests significant support for Kennedy in both states. In Pennsylvania, 40% choose Trump, 38% Biden, 16% Kennedy and 4% West, while in Michigan, it stands at 40% Trump, 34% Biden, 18% Kennedy and 4% West. In both states, fewer than one-fifth of those backing candidates other than Biden or Trump say they are enthusiastic about their choice, with about half in each state saying they back their candidate mostly because they don’t like their other options.

Both Biden and Trump are viewed unfavorably by majorities of Michigan and Pennsylvania voters, and about 1 in 6 in each state are so-called “double-haters,” holding an unfavorable view of both Biden and Trump (17% in Michigan, 18% in Pennsylvania). In the hypothetical matchup including third party candidates, a plurality of these double-negative voters in each state break for Kennedy, despite large shares of that group also saying they don’t know enough about him to have an opinion.

Meanwhile, Emerson has them even in MI.

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/michi … -biden-44/

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Slider_Quinn21 wrote:

The problem is that he's in too deep.  If he doesn't run for president, he won't be able to delay the trials against him forever.  He needs to be president to get the federal charges dismissed against him and get the state stuff delayed/ignored until he's out of office.  And when he gets in, I think he'll still maintain that he has total immunity.  And there's no question he'll try and stay in office after 2028 so any "I'll get indicted once I leave office" wouldn't even happen.

Also, the fact that SCOTUS even took the case (and delayed it so long) doesn't take off the table the idea that they'll side with Trump and give him total immunity.

Trump knows fully what he's doing.  This is his life's skill, screwing people and entities over, and living to do it another day.  Truth Social is likely to have a massive IPO, despite most analysts having no clue why anyone would invest in it.  He'll make a ton on that.  His financial problems really aren't central to the campaign.  His legal issues are.  I think Bragg's case WILL see a courtroom in about a month.  Can't say the same for the others.  Judge Cannon's rulings have left legal experts baffled, and most believe she is angling on delaying the case for months and/or dismissing it entirely.  The problem is Bragg getting a conviction is mehhh, as the penalty would at worst result in probation or home confinement, and a fine.  The DC case remains the critical one, if the Judge can have it proceed in the summer without the USSC derailing it.

Slider_Quinn21 wrote:

Anyway, the podcast goes into whether or not polling is bad and where the numbers are good for both Biden and Trump.  What's crazy about polling is that Biden is losing all the swing states (Michigan recently was tied), but the democrats are winning senate races in all the states. So there are people who are voting democrat for senator but Trump for president.  There will certainly be *some* people who do that, but I assume as the race gets more real, people are going to go back to their respective camps.

I've made this point since last year, Biden is a terrible candidate.  The voters are not lost, they are largely undecided. 

Slider_Quinn21 wrote:

Unfortunately, RFK Jr. is likely to appear on a majority of November ballots, that could be the difference in pulling additional votes from Biden.

Regarding RFK, he's only on the ballot in a handful of states (but they are key states).  When I was pulling the link for the podcast above, I found this:

https://abcnews.go.com/538/rfk-jr-party … =108346487

I know the Biden campaign is worried about RFK, but they're being aggressive about it.  RFK has the Kennedy name, but he's not a true Kennedy.  Polls that have Democrats voting for Kennedy show that Democrats don't agree with his policies.  It's going to take a media blitz to get it done, but right now, RFK is getting Democrat votes based off his name.  If Biden can tell Democrats who RFK really is, I really think he's going to struggle to get Democrat support.  I mean maybe there are hardcore anti-vax Democrats who would otherwise vote for Biden, but I just can't imagine that's the case.  DeSantis voters line up pretty hard with RFK voters so that's a much more logical fit.

But again, it's going to mean getting through to those people.  Biden's going to have a ton of money to spend, though.  He's crushing Trump in fundraising, and Trump actually pulled in less money last month than Nikki Haley.

Kennedy will be on more ballots, because many states have these dumb rules where if you align with a political party (often a fly by night), you don't need that many signatures.

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First Trump HAS a lot of money, it's just not cash.  Nobody has "cash" in that amount because it would be completely counterintuitive to do so.  With low interest rates, maintained at that level for years by Trump, holding cash was not a good investment.  He did lie of course about having it to the judge, because he's crippled with insecurity, and cannot tell the truth about his portfolio.  Anyway, his assets are real estate, and you can't just roll that over into cash overnight.  AG James will be going to the Judge for liens on various Trump assets.  Ironically, some of them are actually not going to fetch the state of NY very much.  Several are so heavily mortgaged, that Trump actually retains very little actual ownership. 

The immunity filing was comical.  Trump's lawyers quoted Justice Kavanaugh out of context, claiming he said in a law review once that the "President cannot function when under threat of indictment."  They missed the 2nd part where he also said, that such immunity would end once you leave office, i.e., you can be charged for things you did while in office at that time.  Again, they know they will lose, it's all about delay. 

Poll-wise I continue to point at some horrible cross tabs for Biden, whereby he won Latino vote by 30 points in 2020, and now leads by just a few points.  It's one of the numbers which keep me up at night.  Meanwhile, while Senator Sinema and Menendez have just elected NOT to run as independents, helping Democratic Senate hopes....former Maryland Governor, moderate Republican Larry Hogan, is running double digits ahead of the Dem field.  Unfortunately, RFK Jr. is likely to appear on a majority of November ballots, that could be the difference in pulling additional votes from Biden.

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Reagan was an ACTOR!  Not a particularly good one, but he was known as the "Great Communicator" for a reason.  Joe Biden was a gaffe machine, but in the past he was at least better at impromptu stuff.  His team hides him from the press far too often, it's a terrible look.  Now ironically, it's Biden who is left standing from the old days of the anti-Communists.  A shocking consideration, compounded by the younger generations' feelings about Israel.  America remains supportive of Ukraine, but it's not like it was in the 1980s, when the very idea of Communism scared people to death.  And honestly, in retrospect, it probably should have.  Trump's vow to retract America from the world stage is appalling and would have Reagan vomiting.

Anecdotal, but I was hanging with a friend, whose brother is a real estate lawyer in New York, and absolutely despises Trump, though he is a Republican.  He said that what Trump was actually penalized for (property devaluation shenanigans) are done by most of the real estate corporations, accountants and lawyers throughout Manhattan.  Said he probably has a good case for appeal, because the statutes have rarely if ever been enforced to this degree.  Of course it's now comical that the Artist of the Deal cannot find any bonding company to back him for that gigantic amount, and may be unable to exact an appeal.  Oh well. 

The problem with being convicted in the "Stormy Daniels" case is that few if any voters are going to make a decision based on that.  They were fine with this disgusting Access Hollywood tape, so this really won't have any effect.  It may do the opposite, and galvanize his support.  The critical voters in up to 7 swing states are concerned with immigration, inflation, crime, and those effects on the economy, which Trump buries Biden in the polling.  The DC "January 6" case is probably the only one with enough teeth, but again, the polling is shocking in that most Americans believe Trump IS a criminal, and yet prefer his "policies" by large numbers to Biden's.  I really don't know what Biden can even do at this point?

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Slider_Quinn21 wrote:
QuinnSlidr wrote:

"Sleepy"? You do see why I think you're secretly a republican agent posing as a democrat?

Attacks on dems, attacks on Joe, insulting Joe, etc...

I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure he was just making fun of Trump calling him that when he was anything but Sleepy.

Thanks, sarcasm is a lost art.

Garland was not the problem here.  How is it his fault if Trump and most of the GOP and media decide to be deceitful?  The whole point of Biden/Garland was to restore the guard rails.  As for Hur, look, his comments even at face value are basically worthless.  He found no evidence of wrongdoing, end stop, everything else he wrote should have been discarded.  The problem is the MEDIA.  They blew up what he said.  Garland released the full transcript which proved that Hur was "selective" and even then, all he was claiming was that Biden would present himself as a nice old dude.

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Slider_Quinn21 wrote:
Grizzlor wrote:

I don't know that sports necessarily did much to/for the Quinn character.  I think it was something that interested him far more as a child/teenager than now, where his intense study and experimentation seemed to take place of all over interests.

Do they ever mention sports outside of the fact that Rembrandt is signing the national anthem at a Giants game?  I would think one of the sorta fun aspects of sliding would be to see how my teams performed from Earth to Earth.  Was I lucky to be from my Earth (where at least my teams won sometimes) or was I seriously unlucky (and my teams won way more on all other Earths).

ireactions, I could've helped with the sports references smile

There was the infamous OJ Simpson reference, and a few others here and there, but most of that seemed to be in The Pilot.  Obviously the big one was Eggheads, where Quinn played the Math Club version of Basketball.  Plus whatever episode Quinn mentions the 49ers Super Bowl victory, but if I recall it was actually the wrong year.  Something like that.  There were plenty of pop culture references beyond sports that seemed to vanish by season 2, and completely out with Tracy's departure.  If anything, I found that to be disappointing, and further example of the laziness and ineptitude of the writing staff. 

ireactions wrote:

My personal opinion, shared by maybe nobody, is that Quinn was not actually smarter than Arturo. It's just that Quinn was willing to make leaps of logic and take guesses that sometimes turned out to be right and express guesses with more certainty than was warranted and improvisationally correct on the fly.

Arturo, however, did not like to make leaps and was a more methodical, deliberate and calculated thinker, which Arturo mistook for being slow or foolish when it was in fact more cautious and less reckless. Arturo would never have gotten everyone lost in the multiverse. Quinn was a daredevil and a gambler. Arturo wasn't dumber or smarter; he just had different strengths.

I would agree, but again, Arturo was highly learned on many subjects.  Quinn seemed to know sports, computers, and quantum physics.  He was much younger and thus hadn't had the time to gain more knowledge.  He was certainly the risk taker, especially with his invention.  Max was conservative, and that fit his nature.  This was also seen during Last Days when he seemed to hit many walls, only to have a baked Benish come up with answers like it was nothing.

ireactions wrote:

Well, Quinn has to exercise at least as much as Jerry O'Connell, and the sports justified why Quinn clearly did some running and weightlifting every day.

Thinking about it now, I imagine that Quinn's interest in sports, strategies, game theory, and how to throw a football, hit a baseball and sink a basketball led to his interest in mathematics, physics, engineering and quantum mechanics.

I can attest that being physically fit and spending time in the gym does not make one all that much better at sports!  I mean, there's that infamous O'Connell "duck walk" that the old Scifi board had a field day with.  Ha ha.

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Plenty of "nerds" or "geeks" who excel in engineering or math have huge sports passions.  It's usually something that is passed down from father to son or daughter.  Professional sports today have become dominated strategically by math wizards who analyze metrics and statistics. 

My feeling was that Torme viewed Quinn's childhood as fairly routine for suburban Americans of the 1980s.  That would have included sports playing and watching.  At some point, he becomes highly interested and excels in subjects like mathematics and physics.  Tracy often mentioned that Quinn's brilliance came naturally, easily, and that he often took it for granted.  This annoyed Arturo, a highly intelligent man, yet more of a bookworm than possessing unique analytical gifts. 

I don't know that sports necessarily did much to/for the Quinn character.  I think it was something that interested him far more as a child/teenager than now, where his intense study and experimentation seemed to take place of all over interests.

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I saw some clips.  Sleepy Joe sounded like he was ready to rumble.  Trump spent the week hanging with Viktor Orban.

A brief remembrance posted by "Spacetime" Matt Hutaff on his site, which we may have missed.  He mentions seeing an add during The Simpsons for Sliders, and later watching and becoming hooked, the numerous Sliders projects he's done, and meeting Tracy.

https://earthprime.com/etcetera/tracy-torme-obituary/

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ireactions wrote:

Well, that is the kind of store that is clearly also not existing in Canada, certainly not as a chain. Why wouldn't it exist in the US?

In terms of why it no longer exists in Canada, there are clearly a number of factors. Factory Direct bought refunded-returned items from Best Buy and Amazon and Staples and whatnot for pennies on the dollar (an exaggeration), engaged in cursory inspection, discarded any items that were clearly too broken to sell, and put the rest on the shelves. A $800 smartphone retailed for $400, and went down by $50 a year, and Factory Direct made a good profit on that for a long time.

I personally never had a bad experience, but some Factory Direct customers reported that their products were defective and had to be exchanged repeatedly to get a working item. I suspect that Factory Direct's inspections of their inventory were limited, and they relied on customers exchanging defective items rather than pre-sale quality control.

For a long time, their sales were strong enough to withstand it, but Factory Direct may have built a bad reputation if too many customers had too many exchanges to the point where customers started paying more money elsewhere so that they wouldn't need to do repeated exchanges.

In 2020, Factory Direct probably saw increased sales of electronics due to people staying home, and may have overpurchased in anticipation for rising sales in 2021 - 2022 only for inflation to hit hard in 2023.

There's the fact that Factory Direct couldn't really raise their prices very much. If refurbished products go up in price, then the value of buying refurbished versus new is eliminated. Also, in 2023, Factory Direct's main customers were probably shopping there less. People on already low budgets who were now finding anything from Factory Direct now too expensive for them and viewed Factory Direct as a luxury.

People with more disposable income had probably always bought the full-priced latest and greatest. People who were tech-savvy enough to see Factory Direct for the great deals that it had may have also preferred to buy their items from online retailers who shipped products directly to buyers' homes and didn't require an in-store visit.

The people who once turned to Factory Direct for affordable tech were probably not buying any tech at all. In addition, Factory Direct didn't own its locations; it was renting those properties, and the rent against diminished profit led to an unsustainable situation.

Personally, I think Factory Direct offered amazing value, selling 2 - 4 year old smartphones that were so powerful that they wouldn't really suffer in terms of performance, while admittedly missing out on the latest screen refresh rates and low light camera lenses of newer technology. What could Factory Direct have done to survive?

They might have considered ending their existence as a bricks and mortar shop and taken their business entirely online, although it would have required more extensive review of their refurbished goods to avoid wasting shipping costs on exchanges.

They might have been able to focus exclusively on phones, tablets, laptops and desktops. Factory Direct was probably wasting its shelf space and time on selling blenders, coffeemakers, kettles and ice cream makers.

In a world of $2,000 smartphones, laptops and desktops, Factory Direct might have been able to carve out a niche in offering $300 - $800 prices on phones, tablets, laptops and desktops that were refurbished, 2 - 6 years old, not the latest and greatest, but affordable and good enough to run the latest and greatest software and apps even if the hardware was a little aged.

I wonder where I'll go now to find refurbished items.

Refurbished electronics (in the USA) is a tough business.  I actually have read about a few that do okay out in rural areas that don't have many big boxes.  The parts and labor to fix broken items often doesn't make sense.  However, there are a ton of these business out in Brooklyn, NY, for instance, but they are entirely run out of warehouses, and often deal with parts imported from China.  If it doesn't work, you stick it back in the box and mail it back, and they probably toss it.  In any case, ditching the retail piece probably saves quite a bit of money.

I have several friends who operate video game stores where they do repairs, but you're also talking about electronics that can be decades old by now. 

ireactions wrote:

In other news, HP wants to stop selling bubble jet printers and start renting them to customers at about $36 a month for 700 pages and charge you $270 if you want to cancel your two year subscription. Wade Welles would advise that you skip this deal and buy a laserjet.

https://www.theverge.com/2024/3/2/24088 … nstant-ink

Given how little people print these days, it's another rough business to be in.  You are kind of forced to make this stuff up.  For years they've taken a bath on the hardware, with the hopes of sticking ppl with exorbitant ink and toner charges.  I presume this was their last lifeline.

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Slider_Quinn21 wrote:
Grizzlor wrote:

Does that mean either judge will actually start the cases prior to November?

I think the DC case will start if they can before the election.

So Trump has done a couple of wily things.  He suggested an August trial date for the documents case.  Even though that case should be open and shut, Cannon can really make it difficult on the prosecution, plus the fact that it's a Florida jury.  If Cannon accepts the August trial date, it could mess with the timing of the DC case.  Then Trump can either hope the documents case continues to get pushed back, or he gets a pre-election acquittal from a friendly jury.

Would've been really nice if the Supreme Court just kicked back Trump's ridiculous argument.

I'll go one further, the Supreme Court could take forever, and then make a narrow decision, and kick it BACK to the lower courts to rule again, delaying trials even further.  Cannon had no choice but to deny Trump's claim to classified documents, and other confidential FBI material.  Still hasn't ruled on the trial date. 

ireactions wrote:

What will Trump's campaign be like given that his financial penalties and legal fees are much higher than his fundraising and more than what the Republican National Party can provide him?

I've already "warned" that Trump has no designs on paying those penalties.  The lawyers will be paid by the Super PACs. 
It may sound futile, it may sound insane, he's not paying.  He will delay and post his bonds (that he'll never pay back), whatever.  Same as the criminal proceeding, his goal is to win and/or steal the election, be inaugurated, and then hit whatever entity is coming for him or his money with the Dept. of Justice.  E. Jean Carroll is already complaining she'll never see the money, and there's a good chance she won't. 

There was a NY Times/Sienna poll out yesterday, it shows Trump ahead 48-43.  The crosstabs are wild.  A clear majority of people think Trump is a criminal, and don't really favor him that much on issues.  Biden's unfavorability is monstrous, far worse than Trump's, and if it's even close to accurate, he cannot win.  That being said, I still think the sample is not realistic.  It was taken by landline/cell phone survey, and I'm increasingly skeptical of those.   The party affiliation, and demographics in the poll seems off to me, I think it's far too Republican.  Does it mean Biden is ahead?  Again, I cannot see that, given the sheer consistency in his poor standing. 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 … stabs.html

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Wow, that is the kind of store that would never exist in the USA, certainly not as a chain.

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One tidbit from today's legal wrangling, in the Florida case, the DOJ advised Trump judge Cannon that the "60-day rule" does not apply.  That is the DOJ rule that they don't wish to bring charges which may affect a contest within 60 days of election day.  However, it was clarified that Trump's case does NOT apply, because he was already indicted and the cases have begun being litigated.  I presume the same can be said for the D.C. case.  Does that mean either judge will actually start the cases prior to November?

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Slider_Quinn21 wrote:
Grizzlor wrote:

Trump has yet to pay, he's yet to see justice, and at this rate, as I said months ago, and was laughed it, very likely that will never happen.

Well if he loses the election, he'll face justice.  Not saying he won't get away with it, but he'll face the trials.  He can only delay it so long, and the government will press for it.  If he wins, of course, he'll get away with all of it.

The New York trial is the weakest case in the sense that Trump wouldn't even really face jail time, but remember that people aren't plugged into this stuff.  Swing voters that barely pay attention will know that Trump is a convicted felon.  Swing voters that start paying attention will realize that Trump paid a porn star hush money while he was cheating on his wife.  That doesn't matter in MAGA Land, but it matters in a lot of places.  That will absolutely cost him votes one way or another.

But all in all, I'm very disappointed in SCOTUS.  The legal system is way too slow, and guys like Trump are more than happy to take advantage of that.  Also, this goes back to Garland taking his sweet time.  This should've gone to trial a year ago or more.

This is why I keep saying, the slimeball will avoid prosecution.  As for Supreme Court, I was watching Neal Katyal, USSC lawyer extraordinaire, and he gave an interesting reasoning for this move.  First, yes, we know they could have taken the case directly when Smith wanted them to in December.  Why did they wait until now?  One explanation is that the Trump/Bush appointees wish to play politics and allow Trump to win.  Most legal experts says there is ZERO legal reasoning for an immunity claim, none, it will be rejected.  So why did they take this case?  Katyal says that Trump was also preparing to claim immunity on the Florida documents case, which would be AFTER he's left office.  That might have resulted in a differing opinion in Florida circuit vs DC, and so the Supremes decided this needs to be settled once and for all.  Okay fine, but why April 22 for arguments???  What is the delay?  They took the 14th Amendment case right away!  Albeit, they still have not ruled on that, either. 

Joe Biden's campaign need to come up with some kind of economic message or he's a goner.

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Supreme Court just announced they will hear Trump's bull crap immunity appeal beginning April 22.  Even if they accelerate their time table and have a judgement in a few weeks, that would push the Election DC case back to June or July.  Merrick Garland probably won't allow them to go through with it near to an election.  The Georgia case remains embroiled in the Fani Willis affair.  That leaves only the Bragg hush money case, which even if Trump loses, will get appealed immediately, and most people think it's a stupid case.  Trump has yet to pay, he's yet to see justice, and at this rate, as I said months ago, and was laughed it, very likely that will never happen.

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Shockingly, Desantimonious (the dumbest moniker yet) is still a state Governor. 

More on the uncommitted, which is as expected, very large in the Arab/Muslim populated areas around Dearborn, and the college towns.  Biden is over 80% total, uncommitted is high but trending below 14%.  Here's the key, these votes are STILL Democratic votes, and if anything, this may have buoyed Democratic turnout in an otherwise mehhh primary for them.  Much better that these voters protested with uncommitted versus Dean Phillips or Marianne Williamson.  I still believe that Biden's biggest weakness in MI is not Gaza, it's General Motors.  The Biden push for electric vehicles is very unpopular among union households, because EV's mean less autoworkers, just the way it is. 

Trump meanwhile trending about 2/3 of the vote, Nikki Haley slipping below 28%.  Tons of votes to be counted, Michigan is beyond slow, despite early voting.  Obviously, once again, it's a lot worse of a look to be missing 1/4-1/3 of your primary electorate to another identifiable different candidate.  Haley of course, got clobbered here again.  She has the money to compete through next Tuesday, but probably will be mathematically eliminated.  She may still keep going anyway, although the money is going to be thin.  Trump again underperforms polling.  Michigan's GOP is also a total disaster, with warring factions of Trumpers battling over the last several years, to the point where today's vote will have almost no affect on delegates.  They will be mostly award in next week's state convention, which is sure to be a real farce.

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So far the "uncommitted" total is likely to be quite higher than usual in MI.  Idk what to even make of that, especially with Biden getting 5 out of 6 votes.

The last thing a billionaire wants to do is throw away money!  A million or two maybe, but 10 or even 60 million, no shot.  Sheldon Adelson was his last big one, he's dead.  Even the Home Depot guy is now unfriendly to Trump, and had backed Desantis.

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The collateral would be quite large on the $83 million, but I cannot even fathom for the $455+.  I read that his lawyers are currently trying to get the judge in the Carroll case to lower the bond, and I would suspect they'll "try" likewise on the other case.  Bond companies don't want property, and even less if mortgaged, they want cash/stocks/bonds.  Most all of his property, especially in New York, are highly leveraged because he is an imbusel who fails at business regularly.  I am hearing he could probably need to pay them 3% fee as well as collateral that both would exceed $10 million and $60 million, I think.  These are BIG numbers.  However, Trump could ask the appeals court in both cases to lower the bond requirement, or freeze the penalties entirely.  Somehow I doubt they'll do him any favors. 

I have no idea if he'll ever go to trial on the stolen documents case, but Trump completely admitted it's something he would, could, and should have done on Hannity last night.

https://twitter.com/highbrow_nobrow/sta … 4588687546

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The poll taking can be problematic but so can the poll analysis and how the results are weighted.  I guess at this point, hell with them.

Michigan votes Tuesday, that should be interesting as supposedly many up there blame Biden for Gaza being demolished. 

Trump's CPAC speeches may be his most unhinged and plain deteriorated he's ever sounded.  Gaffes constantly not to mention tons of insanity spewed.  Fox News of all things have often been overlaying the hosts fact checking his lunacy in real time.  Meanwhile, MSNBC/CNN don't even cover him.  I think this is a mistake.  People NEED to see how quickly the man is losing it at a mental level.  He will only get worse.

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We have South Carolina results, and surprise, it's Trump winning.  Duh, you don't get more MAGA than SC.  The story is he once again under-performed badly vs. the polling, by about 7 points each time.  On to Super Tuesday.

https://twitter.com/admcrlsn/status/1761578567345815818

Iowa Caucus:
• Final 538 Avg: Trump +37 (over RDS)
• Final Result: Trump +30

New Hampshire Primary:
• Final 538 Avg: Trump +18
• Final Result: Trump +11

South Carolina Primary:
• Final 538 Avg: Trump +28
• Estimated Result (per NYT): Trump +20

ireactions wrote:

Because you like Amanda the Jedi, my opinion of you just went up by several notches.

The idea that Dakota Johnson didn't realize a Sony superhero movie wasn't a Marvel Studios movie seems too ridiculous to be true... except Johnson, after completing filming on MADAME WEB, fired her agent. There's a rumour that she held her agent responsible for not knowing the difference between Sony and Marvel.

Her editing skills are impressive, and coming up with jokes is not easy.

She also pointed out how several actors who worked Sony "Marvel" movies had no idea they weren't working for Disney/Marvel, including Matt Smith.  Not unique to Dakota, who has been whining during the entire press tour.  Dakota Johnson is a lousy actress, and is not capable of carrying a film.  The rising star was Sydney Sweeney, who was not the lead and probably should have been.

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Slider_Quinn21 wrote:

Biden seems to be underperforming in polls, which is odd.  The problems with polling recently have been underestimating Trump (he won in 2016 when he was polling to lose, and he lost in 2020 closer than the polls implied).  The thought was that there were "shy Trump voters" that were unwilling to admit to pollsters that they support Trump.  Maybe it's possible that people are saying they support Trump when either a) they won't when push comes to shove or b) they just don't like Biden enough that they're willing to tell pollsters that.

I still think the more people know about Trump, the more support he'll lose.  And once normal people start hearing some of the Trump stuff (once they start caring or once the mainstream media starts covering him more), polls will turn.  I'm not fully ready to abandon all polling, but I'm willing to say that polls are really tricky to get right these days.

I have a couple theories to explain those thoughts, which I stole.  First, Rosenberg points out that Biden's approval on almost anything with Republicans is like comically bad.  Granted the opposing party is rarely going to give the President high marks, and I don't know what the norm has been, but Biden is in SINGLE digits with R's!!!!  Yes who cares right, they aren't voting for him!  However they probably represent 25-35% of the respondents in these surveys!  When you weigh that in, it drops Biden's approval numbers to record lows.  That's how badly MAGA hate him.  Even Obama was nowhere near this.  Will I sleep better knowing this?  Not really but it does dispel these approval ratings somewhat. 

Second, on the voter polls, as Sabato remarked, they've become almost useless.  The trick is in weighing who are your likely voters and such.  Pollsters get this wrong a lot.  They're also mistaking Trump's diehard ceiling with a soft one for Biden.  Again, I think over 50% of the electorate wishes to vote against Trump.  Will Biden be able to shuffle well enough to continue to be their alternative?  I remain concerned but it's really about Third party spoilers at this point. 

ireactions wrote:
Grizzlor wrote:

He won't ever pay, so there will be a protracted legal fight over those assets.

What a strange remark. If Trump doesn't pay the fines, the state of New York will simply take his assets and sell them.

For 99.9% of the population.  Not for a Trump who's plan is always to litigate and delay.  Yes, eventually the AG will likely seize but he'll still try to block it.  Again, he knows he will lose but delaying buys him time to maneuver.  The Judge was alerted again that Trump Org tried to transfer assets to Florida.  I don't know what he has up his sleeve but this is his career, litigation.  I know this sounds counterintuitive but Trump has operated this way for 50 years.  He's beaten numerous bankruptcy courts just like this.