If I had faith in free and fair elections, this would look terrible for Republicans. They're basically forced to hope that people don't watch the videos or are willing to be fully lied to. They're also walking a fine line with their second amendment base by speaking out against people carrying legally in Minnesota. It'll be interesting if Democrats can find some common ground (that Republicans are forced to take) and can get some gun control stuff passed. But while the Republicans are being pretty evil, the Democrats have been completely unable to seize the moment.
In fact, polling suggests that Kamala Harris would be the frontrunner to win the 2028 nomination. As happy as I was to vote for her in 2024, I think it would be a disaster if she were the nominee in 2028. To me, the only candidate is Newsom because he's been the only one to stand up to Trump and beat him at his own game. I think they'd have a real chance to pick up some of the apolitical people who voted for Trump. Those people only care about Trump's "alpha male personality" and that's where Newsom has been hitting Trump. Since those people don't care about issues, they should have no issue jumping from Trump to Newsom. But they'd never vote for Harris.
Trump has historically low approval ratings. The optics for all the stuff he's doing is failing except for his ultraloyal base. JD Vance keeps embarrassing himself and fighting with MAGA people. The signs are there for this whole house of cards to collapse. But with full control of the government, I think Trump has a thousand avenues to put his thumb on the scale, and I think he will use at least one of them.