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2024-05-16 13:34:40

ireactions wrote:

I am not a Zack Snyder fan and did not watch REBEL MOON... but did it really look cheap? I always thought of Zack Snyder as only doing projects with lavish spending.

It didn't look cheap. I thought the movie looked really nice, especially for the price that it apparently cost. Cheap in the sense that it wasn't really even trying to be its own thing. You can see the seams of an attempted Star Wars movie with some simple alterations to make it the minimum legal requirement for it not to be Star Wars. One person uses lightsabers but not really. The bad guy uses a Star Destroyer but not really.

If you think about it, you can see how it would've worked if it was a Star Wars movie. There's some stuff he obviously added after it was no longer Star Wars involving a royal family. But I think even that stuff probably could work depending on when the movie is set.

2024-05-16 13:23:09

To me, the DCEU failed for a variety of reasons, and I think Snyder probably gets an unfair share of that. I think he's a talented guy, and I don't even think his movies are bad. I think Snyder's biggest problem is that he doesn't really understand the characters. Or he does understand them and thinks that the only thing interesting you can do with them is make them into something different. We've talked this to death, but I think that's really Snyder's only issue. And the universe tried to make it after Snyder. Was the damage done? Maybe. But at the same time, a lot of the post-Snyder movies aren't any better than the ones Snyder did.

I think Snyder's biggest problem was trying to make alternate versions of these characters and making them the primary versions for a universe. Even if all he did was take different versions of Batman and Superman (who had already had a dozen movies made about them at that point), those are two characters you probably need to get right.

Now if the DCEU was a success first and they brought in Snyder to make an Injustice trilogy after the characters had already been established, that could've been cool. I think that's what makes The Maker and Invincible Iron Man and Superior Spider-Man so interesting. But you need a standard version of the character first, or the "evil" version doesn't really work.

********

But, yeah, I tried to make Snyder's Avengers as much like Snyder's DC movies. I just think it's funny that Snyder made three movies to try and get to the part he thought was most interesting (the full Knightmare world) and never got there.

2024-05-13 18:43:24

As I said in my alternate history essay, I watched Rebel Moon part 2. It was definitely better than part one, but I still do not get this. I actually think he took more chances and did more interesting things with Army of the Dead, and I think that should've been the project he hooked onto. Robot zombies and time loops and all that is interesting (if we ever get those movies).

Rebel Moon is a very cheap knockoff of Star Wars that adds nothing. It's just bad Star Wars with more cursing. Part One is boring. Part Two is more interesting (because it's the part of the story where things happen) but it's just Seven Samurai. Nothing about it is original.

He has ambitious stories, but the problem with Snyder is twofold:

- He likes to tease things rather than actually get there. He doesn't make a movie about Robot Zombies and Time Loops. He makes a movie that teases those things.

- His execution when he actually does the thing he's teasing is underwhelming. BvS is one huge tease for Batman to fight Superman, but when he gets there, it's just nothing.

If I were advising Snyder, I'd abandon Rebel Moon. If he really loves the universe, give it to someone else to try. Lucas only made one Star Wars movie in the original trilogy. Own the story if you want but let someone else do the directing. Focus on Planet of the Dead and that universe. It might not be great but at least it's something new.

2024-05-13 18:32:38

I wasn't trying to base Snyder's Captain America on anything. Rather, I was trying to think of what Snyder might do with Marvel characters. I was originally going to make Iron Man the first movie in Snyder's Avengers saga like it was in the MCU, but I decided that if Snyder had his pick, he'd make Cap first (even if he really liked Iron Man more). He'd see a boring character (to him) and try to add some nuance (to him). I would think he'd suspect that Cap would be turned off by modern America and become jaded and disillusioned. Just like he'd think its natural that Batman and Superman would kill bad guys, he wouldn't be interested in a Captain America that always tries to do the right thing.

And like he preferred evil Superman to normal Superman, I think he'd find Captain Hydra more interesting than Captain America (I don't even think the timeline works for that version of the character to be around but it's an alternate history). And since I couldn't think of a good situation where Steve allows millions of people to die (like Superman does in Man of Steel), I decided to let Steve do something that I wouldn't think he'd otherwise do - let someone die so he can get the kill.

My issue with Snyder's superheroes isn't that they're bad. I just don't think he thinks of them as being good guys. They do good, sure, but good guys are boring. So Superman has a bad side. Batman kills. Not because they have to, but Snyder can't see anything interesting in a story where Batman has to find a way not to kill.

My problem is that I don't think it's interesting for Batman and Superman to just be random soldiers doing what it takes to win. A Batman who kills is more efficient, sure, but I don't think it's more interesting.

Of course, I also needed Snyder to burn through stories while teasing way more stories. I needed Tony to just be Batman. I needed Snyder to make a bunch of movies but never get to Thanos.

I wasn't super happy with my Ayer Strange, but I couldn't think of a good approximation of the Suicide Squad. Something to introduce a bunch of characters and establish that this is a lived-in world without using any of the Justice League. So I just said "well, RDJ looks like Dr Strange so let's just shoehorn him in here"

2024-05-13 10:39:54

I was watching Rebel Moon Part Two, and I decided to grab my timer and find a special parallel dimension. And I did. I present to you Earth 32991.

******************

2005. Batman Begins is released, starring Christian Bale as the titular character. The movie is a modest success, but it's enough of a success for producer Kevin Feige to get a meeting with the bigshots at WB. He left Marvel after failing to get approval for a vision he had of a shared universe of superhero movies. He wanted to try it at DC, and he was hired to be the architect of that vision. The movie is rereleased for the Christmas season with a brand-new post-credits sequence where Clark Kent shows up at Wayne Manor looking for the Batman.

Over the next few years, the DCU is the star of cinemas. Standalone films for Superman, Wonder Woman, the Flash, and Aquaman are huge hits, alongside the Dark Knight, a Batman sequel. In 2011, Joss Whedon directs a Justice League movie. From there, the hits just keep on coming. From James Gunn's Green Lantern Corp to Justice League : Age of Apokolips, the DCU becomes a hit-making factory.

Marvel, struggling with its film division after the failure of 2006's Iron Man (starring Tom Cruise) and 2008's The Incredible Hulk with Edward Norton decides to go back to Kevin Feige's architecture. After failing to get Feige back, Marvel finds Zach Snyder. Snyder had success with a direct adaptation of Spider-Man: Blue for Sony, and they thought he could tell the right stories for them. Snyder is given a greenlight for a kickoff film and a fast-tracked Avengers movie.

So in 2013, Captain America is released. It tells the story of Steve Rogers (controversially played by non-American Henry Cavill), an optimistic man who is given the super-soldier serum. After defeating the Red Skull and getting frozen in the ice, SHIELD finds Captain America and thaws him out. Steve is eager to get back to work in the red, white, and blue, but he finds the world to be a great deal more cynical than the world he remembers. He's annoyed that he seems to be doing more campaign events for the President than actual hero work, but he does it with a smile. Rogers discovers a plot by Hydra to reincarnate the Red Skull and take over the world. The film climaxes as an inauguration party in Washington DC is attacked. Steve fights the newly reborn Red Skull and his Winter Soldier as they attempt to assassinate the president. With only time to defeat the Red Skull for good or save the president (who Steve doesn't see as idealistic enough), Steve makes the heartbreaking decision to let Bucky shoot the president so Steve can use his shield to decapitate the Red Skull. The Winter Soldier escapes, the new President thanks Steve for doing everything he could, and the nation mourns the loss of its leader.

Captain America is a fairly big success leading to the greenlight of Captain America v Iron Man: Civil War. Ben Affleck is hired as Tony Stark (taking the role from Tom Cruise). Stark is an alcoholic genius who has been Iron Man for over a decade on the West Coast. He's been at odds with Nick Fury and SHIELD for his entire superhero career, and that relationship goes nuclear when Stark is able to find evidence that Rogers let the president be killed. SHIELD won't let Stark release the evidence so Tony takes matters into his own hands. Tony is able to find a secret Hydra sleeper agent program called Captain Hydra, which Tony believes has already been started. Working with Dr. Bruce Banner, Stark works to defeat Rogers. In the meantime, it turns out that Tony's trusted AI Ultron is pulling the strings, and he actually implements the Captain Hydra program, brainwashing Rogers to start working for Hydra. Captain Hydra fights Iron Man and Banner, but Banner loses control and becomes the Hulk. Realizing how he's been manipulated, Stark is able to convince Rogers to fight the brainwashing (using Steve's relationship with Tony's father as a link) and together, they're able to defeat Ultron and calm down the Hulk (with Tony bringing out his Hulkbuster armor). Nick Fury (Joe Morton) appears in a post-credits sequence as he asks Tony to help him understand this mysterious hammer he found.

Civil War made a lot of money, but critics panned the convoluted plot of the film. Comic fans were annoyed at the fact that so many potential story threads were burned in a single movie (Captain Hydra, Ultron, World War Hulk, and Civil War itself). Fans were especially annoyed at the fact that "Civil War" really ended up only being a couple of people and not the wide-stretching story the comics told. People also disliked how cynical Captain America ended up being, going against one of the main tenets of the character. Snyder pushed back that it was a little silly for a guy from the 40s to still believe in today's America, and that of course he'd be cynical now. He continued to fight criticism of Steve both killing the Red Skull and allowing the president to be killed in the first movie.

A Doctor Strange movie, directed by David Ayer, was released after Civil War with middling success. People were starting to get annoyed already with the dour tone of the Marvel movies compared to the fun and bright DCU. Robert Downey Jr.'s Strange was praised and there were some fun cameos of heroes like Ant-Man and Hawkeye, but fans were already starting to bail.

By the time the Avengers movie was ready to come out, the project was starting to flounder. Hulk and Hawkeye solo films were delayed, and even a critically acclaimed Black Widow movie (by Patty Jenkins) wasn't enough to get people excited. Due to the film going overbudget and personal issues in Zach Snyder's life, Avengers was finished by Joss Whedon, hoping to bring some of the DC magic over to Marvel. The film was a modest success but struggled to win over critics and audiences. Tony and Steve work together to assemble the Avengers when Cull Obsidian attacks Earth on behalf of his leader Thanos. Even though Captain America is a little more lighthearted and less cynical, the movie struggles to tell a cohesive story while also introducing Thor (and all of Asgard), Hawkeye, and Ant-Man to the team of Iron Man, Captain America, Hulk, and Black Widow.

Not everyone hated the vision, though. Snyder had legions of fans who loved the darker, more realistic and science-based superhero universe. These were more realistic people who lived in the real world with street-level powers that weren't obscene and godlike like DC. These fans were eager to see Snyder's vision come to light with seeds planted for more Captain Hydra, Tony's demon in a bottle, a greater role for Thor's brother Loki, and even a battle with Thanos himself.

It wouldn't be until years later when Zach Snyder's Avengers was released on streaming platforms. It expands on the Whedon version with much more time spent in Asgard (including additional scenes with Loki), a backstory with Thanos featuring Captain Marvel and the Nova Core, and a premonition from Dr Strange that Steve will kill Tony. It was a bit of a cultural phenomenon, especially with Snyder fanatics, but it wasn't enough to warrant any more Snyder material for Marvel.

Marvel is currently looking to reboot their universe, with James Gunn in the lead. Snyder has moved on to start his own franchise, a mature and new spin on orcs, dwarves, and elves: The Halfling.

2024-05-08 07:05:56

Cannon essentially killed the documents case (or at least put it in a coma). It was incredibly genius for Trump to install such a friendly and loyal judge in this district, and I wish the Democrats had been a bit more aware and tried to stop her appointment. I know they wouldn't have had the votes along party lines, but by all accounts, they simply ignored her during hearings. That was obviously a mistake - Cannon is incapable of ruling fairly, and I assume a number of other judges would've already brought this case to trial.

Just have to hope that the DC trial can start. The good news is that Florida can't block that anymore. So if the Supreme Court doesn't mess up the immunity ruling, DC should have an open schedule.

2024-05-06 18:34:23

Yeah I don't really know what to make of the polls. I listen to a lot of the 538 politics podcast. They obviously depend on the polls for their accuracy, but they acknowledge that something about Trump makes the polls less accurate. In elections where Trump isn't on the ballot, the polls have been really accurate and reliable. When he's on the ballot, something is awry.

In both 2016 and 2020, the polls underestimated Trump. The only real theories I saw were the ideas that:

- Trump voters were undersampled. In 2016 this could've been the result of shifting demographics. Since people that traditionally voted Democrat were voting Republican and vice versa, maybe their sampling techniques underrepresented Trump voters.

- "Shy Trump voters" - people that were always going to vote for Trump but were unwilling, due to the social pressures to not admit you're going to vote for Trump.

So if the polls underestimated Trump in 2016 and 2020, why would they suddenly be overestimating him? Could really be the same reasons, just in reverse.

- Pollsters oversampling from Trump voters. Maybe in an attempt to fix the sampling problems they had in the past, they overcompensated and started oversampling Trump voters.

- "Shy Biden voters" - maybe people see polls that say Biden is unpopular or his approval rating being in the 30s and think "I can't admit that I like Biden." I guess it's possible. I think there's a difference in stigma in admitting you like Trump vs admitting you like Biden. I guess there's also the idea that a lot of 2020 Biden voters are saying they won't vote for him or will even vote for Trump, but they could all come back by November.

But when you look at actual results in these primaries, it's hard to see bad news for Biden. Huge percentages of Republicans are voting for people other than Trump. Even people voting after Nikki Haley dropped out. Even in closed primaries where you have to be a Republican to vote?

Are these eventual Trump voters that are casting some kind of protest vote? Maybe? But if so...why? What do they hope Trump will do? People protest voted Biden in Michigan in hopes that he'd change his stance on Palestine. I don't know what protest votes against Trump would even hope to accomplish.

Or are these Biden voters who are voting against Trump to make him look bad? Either, in open primaries, Democrats actually crossing party lines or, in closed primaries, voting for the Trump alternative? That seems to be what Trump wants people to think. But if that's not the answer and these are eventual voters for RFK, Biden, or another alternative (empty top of the ballot), I don't know how Trump has the votes to win. Especially if Biden can win back some of the 2020 voters he lost.

The trends have been good for Biden in the last couple of months (although that trend is reversing a bit recently). But I'm not comfortable simply thinking that the polls are wrong. I would like the polls to be underestimating Biden *and* for Biden to be winning polls.

2024-05-01 09:29:24

pilight wrote:

This court has no respect for precedent.

Well that's what's so silly about some of the stuff you heard from them. Talking about how this is a decision for the ages and all that.

No.

It's the decision for now. The conservatives have the majority now, but Alito is 74 and Thomas is 75. Neither will be around forever, and actuarily speaking, will be the next to go. If a Democratic president replaces both of them, it's back to being a liberal majority. Roberts is 69. They act like they're doing historical business, but all of it could be unwritten in a decade or two. This is a group of people who think they're more important than they are, and I assume the next liberal court (whenever that is) will spend a lot of their time undoing what they did.

2024-04-30 07:25:48

Well, one thing I go back to is that most of the conservative majority in SCOTUS is fairly reasonable and has sided with reason most of the time. Alito seems like an absolute right-wing nutjob, and Thomas is completely compromised when it comes to Trump. But Kavanaugh has ended up being somewhat moderate, and I think Barrett hasn't been the complete nightmare she appeared to be.

I think sometimes there's this thought that SCOTUS is full of Trump sycophants, and there's two reasons not to think that. One, I think Roberts (despite everything) is trying to make the court not completely insane. If Thomas or Alito was the chief justice, I think this gets so much worse. Second, there's not really a quid pro quo here. There's no real reason or incentive for them to be loyal to Trump - unlike people in Congress, there's not anything Trump can give them that they don't already have.

(Note - I'm not saying SCOTUS hasn't been horrible. Obviously, they've made some world-changing decisions for the worse. I'm just saying a) they could be worse and b) the two oldest justices are also the two worst judges. If Biden wins, there's not a zero chance that this flips back to 5-4 liberals in the next four years).

It's probably best long term for SCOTUS to clarify this as much as possible considering the idea that the next Trump could be much better at crime than Trump is. But...man, I wish they'd carve out this DC case and let it move forward and let the documents case determine the high-level questions since I assume Cannon will never let that case be a thing anyway. SCOTUS will never delay this case more than she will.

2024-04-29 08:42:01

A few years ago, I was pretty active on Twitter and followed election coverage pretty closely. I even waded into waters where I tried to calmly convince MAGA of the error of their ways. Eventually, I didn't like the person I was. I was doom-scrolling through twitter all the time, and I was feeling myself growing more and more annoyed.

So I quit. I was doing it because I was bored, and there are a billion apps that I could use to stop myself from being bored.

About a year ago, I got curious about some things and waded back into those waters. I had deleted the app but I could still access the website through Safari on my phone. There were a couple of people I liked to follow for news on the Trump indictments or whatever and that was that. Eventually, Elon closed that loophole and made you register to access the website. So I was closed off. Then, more recently, I decided I was curious enough and I created a second account (I didn't remember the login and thought this was more reasonable) and accessed the website (again, not downloading the app) to get my news. I went from checking it only in the evenings to checking it all the time. And, again, I could feel my blood pressure going up every time I visited.

The Trump immunity Supreme Court was the last straw. I was upset all day. So I decided to quit again. I logged out of my dummy account and deleted all my shortcuts. I haven't been back since.

Me doomscrolling through twitter isn't going to stop Trump from getting elected or make him go to jail, and at least now, I'm not forcing myself to constantly think about it. The unfortunate thing for everyone else is that now I'll be much less informed. The fortunate thing for me is that I'll be much happier.

2024-04-25 10:00:45

Immunity is being argued in front of SCOTUS today. In past *huge* cases, SCOTUS has decided really quickly (Pentagon Papers, Watergate Tapes, Bush v Gore).

I assume they'll wait until the last possible minute. Either July or after. And that will be a decision, not a requirement.

Update: there's almost no way they decide on this before the election. Sounds like it's more likely they kick the whole thing back to the Appeals Court and then start the whole process over.

DC and Florida cases are going to be delayed until after the election. Biden needs to win in November.

2024-04-24 12:03:16

Grizzlor wrote:

I mean, Nikki getting 30% in PA despite bowing out months ago cannot be a "great" thing for Trump. That said, I saw some of the mail in results, and they were incredibly bad for Don, so one could assume that many people voted Haley, by mail, some time ago. I dunno.

Apparently, vote by mail info goes out 50 days before the election. Haley dropped out exactly 50 days before. So she would've been on the ballot (obviously), but she would've dropped out before people would've received their vote by mail. Maybe some could've immediately filled it out before they found out, but I assume a lot of people knew.

As for those podcast points....

1. "Even the idea that Trump isn't able to campaign right now may not matter six months from now." I've said it before, being stuck in court for six weeks is crippling for a campaign. The loss of time is massive. If the US Supreme Court does not scuttle the DC trial, Trump will be sidelined up to THREE MONTHS during the summer, which will be a huge disaster for his campaign. Nikki Haley has to be cackling about this.

Really hoping SCOTUS doesn't drag their feet with their decision. We should have the DC trial this summer.

2. "People that are going to care the most about this issue are people who were going to vote anyway, and the rest of the people that care are probably voting anyway because it's a presidential election." This is entirely the POINT of how you win elections. You get the people most likely on your side, to physically DO IT. This is not something to brush aside. Enthusiasm is a major factor, and when the vote is very close, that is tantamount.

I was thinking about it the other day, and I have a decent amount of enthusiasm to vote for Biden. He's done a good job, and he's the man standing between us and Trump. I assume that will rise as times goes on. I assume I'm not alone in that and people will get more excited to vote for Biden once they realize they have no other choice.

MAGA voters have nowhere to go but down in their enthusiasm. It's maxed out.

3. And Biden has way more feet on the ground to go out and convince people. They basically said it was the same thing in 2016 - Trump had a much worse campaign effort than Hillary and she outspent him 2-1, but Trump got so much free media coverage that it didn't matter in the end. First off, Hillary lost because she overspent in states she probably wasn't going to win, and ignored ones she was struggling in. Biden is expanding the campaign, on certain issues, but that will help down ticket Dems anyway. Having people working the campaign is really important. Take Florida, which Trump will likely win, but Biden is spending there. Trump's issue is that Desantis hates him, so he won't get much help from him, forcing his team to spend more than they normally would. Biden is basically trolling Trump down there.

I hope Trump is serious and spends money in New York and California and places like that. He's way behind in money so any money he spends outside of battleground states is a waste.

It sounds like the Biden campaign is doing things right. He can't only spend money in AZ, NV, GA, MI, WI, and PA, but I'd like to see that be the focus. Travel there, speak there. Send Obama and other popular surrogates. I think NC is a possibility. FL seems like a lost cause, but I can see making Trump waste money there (same in Texas...really hoping we can get Allred to beat Cruz). They might be able to make a run at OH, but that also seems out of reach.

Biden also has to defend some light blue states like New Mexico, New Hampshire, and Virginia. But the rest of the map seems pretty secure. Focus on where they need to focus, and again they only need to win half the tossup states (assuming it's the right half)

2024-04-24 07:40:35

Pennsylvania leaned heavily democratic in a special election yesterday and during the primary. Trump only got something like 60% of the vote there from Republicans. I'm not sure we can really pull anything from either of those stats, but I'm guessing the primary factor is that the shifting electorate makes likely voters much more likely to vote Democrat now. College educated whites have always been reliable voters, and now they're reliably voting democratic.

I'm not sure what to make of the Republican primary stuff. If you just look at the Republican primary numbers in a vacuum, there's a ton of protest votes against Trump. But I'm guessing those voters were either a) already baked into the Biden number or b) will come home to Trump at the end of the day. Hoping I'm wrong, though.

Pennsylvania is the one swing state that Biden has been doing the best in (although he recently was leading a Michigan poll as well). If the polls are right, Biden might need to hold the Rust Belt to win.

*************

538 did a good podcast the other day talking about some trends that appear good for Biden but may not matter:

1. The trials. The thought is that it won't do much to sway sentiment, especially this hush money case, unless something comes out that really blows people away. Even the idea that Trump isn't able to campaign right now may not matter six months from now. Polling shows a big swing to Biden if Trump is convicted of a "serious" crime but it's hard to tell whether voters find this case serious at all.

2. Abortion. Even though abortion is a terrible issue or Republicans, they seemed to think it might not have a big impact on the presidential election. People that are going to care the most about this issue are people who were going to vote anyway, and the rest of the people that care are probably voting anyway because it's a presidential election. Plus, people can be angry about Trump's stance on abortion, vote to protect abortion rights, and then still vote for Trump. They even downplayed Trump's recent shift towards a more pro-choice posture and said extreme anti-abortion people are still almost certainly going to vote for Trump even if he's against bans.

3. Campaign money. Biden is outpacing Trump on funds earned, funds spent (on the campaign at least), and campaign infrastructure in battleground states. But they argued that 1) these candidates are already really well known and money might not sway that many people 2) Trump gets a ton of free media coverage. I do think if Biden can significantly outspend Trump on advertising in battleground states, it can have an impact. Trump is obviously going to use money to pay his own bills first, and Biden won't have that issue. And Biden has way more feet on the ground to go out and convince people. They basically said it was the same thing in 2016 - Trump had a much worse campaign effort than Hillary and she outspent him 2-1, but Trump got so much free media coverage that it didn't matter in the end.

I guess we'll see.

2024-04-23 12:51:52

Grizzlor wrote:

Hush money trial has begun. I think that Alvin Bragg will present a fairly strong case with evidence and compelling witnesses. The focus will be on accounting/business practices mainly. Whether Trump wins or loses, he will be stuck in court, pouting, for up to 6 weeks while Biden is basically all over the place campaigning.

Two interesting things have come from this:

- The judge seemed really irritated with Trump's lawyers during the hearing on the gag order. I think the lawyers are going to struggle to toe that line between trying to do their job but also trying to keep Trump happy.

- I'm sorta convinced that Trump wants to go to jail to fight the gag order for the optics. It'll be interesting to see if the judge goes for it or not.

All that really matters for this is the electoral consequences so some scatterbrained thoughts:

- I don't know if politically unengaged undecideds are paying attention to this case. If they aren't, I think that could potentially be a win for Trump depending on how much people are not paying attention. If undecideds aren't paying enough attention to know the details but understand that the case is less serious, then they aren't getting any of the details of the case (the kind of thing Trump wanted to suppress in the first place) and a conviction won't matter and Trump wins. If people aren't paying attention and have no idea the seriousness of the case, I guess that benefits Biden because all they'll know is that Trump was convicted of a felony. So I guess if you're Biden, you have to hope that people are either paying a ton of attention or no attention at all.

- Trump looks whiny and tired and repetitive. I don't know how widespread the stories of him falling asleep (or worse) are, but that certainly doesn't help with Trump's image of being smart or strong or virile.

- It's obvious that this makes Trump miserable. And on a personal note, I just love that.

2024-04-18 15:40:39

Another poll came out that had Biden winning big if Trump is convicted. The polling was a bit misleading because it referred to it as a "serious crime", and I'm sure people won't consider the NY case a "serious crime" if they know the details. Some will and will disregard. Some won't know enough about it and will consider it serious because it's a criminal conviction. I assume he loses a ton of votes but not the +9 the poll indicated.

The Kennedy family did a huge event where they wholeheartedly endorsed Biden. I don't know if the media will cover that event, but if they do, it should mean more Biden-to-Kennedy voters go away. Again, there's almost no overlap between Biden and RFK other than the name, and if people are voting for RFK because he's a Kennedy (and nothing else), then this news (and I assume the next dozen times they work with the Kennedys) will dissuade some. The people that know who Kennedy is and are voting for him have got to be mostly far-right people dissatisfied that Trump isn't far right enough.

In the Trump trial, we have a jury. I'm nervous that something is going to happen to one of these jurors, especially as Fox News is actively trying to intimidate the jury. But the trial could start Monday morning so maybe it'll go quickly.

2024-04-18 09:30:19

Grizzlor wrote:

Meanwhile, the current DC crisis is whether Speaker Mike can get anything through his caucus of block heads? He has bizarrely proposed to offer four separate bills to aid Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, and I believe the border. Absurd considering, if they get a vote (will pass), they'd likely be repackaged as one bill that goes to the Senate.

Yeah, I don't see how this helps Republicans. If they kept the bills together, there could be deniability for GOP House members that want to continue to be anti-Ukraine ("Look, we needed to get money to Israel and Taiwan and the cost was money to Ukraine. The good outweighed the bad" but also "I sent money to Ukraine and helped them" - they can play both sides). Now they have to be on record on one or the other. If there are pro-Ukraine independents, they could be swayed one way or the other by this.

On the other hand, if the Republicans think that they can use Israel as a wedge issue, they can force Democrats to side with either Israel or Palestine. I could see some benefit there, but I don't know.

I saw an interview with Johnson where he was saying all the right things about Ukraine. It sounds like maybe he has some sort of assurance that he can survive any move against him. If so...I guess that's good.

2024-04-17 08:23:23

Yeah, I don't understand why Trump wouldn't just put the money up himself? I'm guessing it's the principle of it, if that's even true? I also don't understand what the company gets out of it outside of promises of future benefits from a possible future president?

I think the obvious thing is that a) Trump doesn't have the cash to secure the bond and b) the only company that was willing to do it is sketchy and probably not following the rules. I could be wrong though and am not an expert on this stuff.

******

Jury selection in the hush money case is rolling along. I still worry, especially since right wing media is actively encouraging this, that a MAGA person will get on the jury and hold things up. If Trump gets off because a jury of his peers didn't find the case strong enough, so be it. But the trial needs to be fair. Hopefully if someone is able to get onto the jury that they can be weeded out and replaced with an alternate.

2024-04-15 07:56:43

As some of these older polls age out of aggregators, Biden is starting to take small leads in overall polling most places. Now a small lead nationally won't do it, and I'm pretty sure state-level polling still has Trump with enough states to win the electoral college. But it's a step in the right direction.

Experts seem to think Trump is going to lose this hush money case. I would think especially if Trump is muttering himself like a crazy person the whole time. It won't give him any jail time, but he'll legally be a convicted felon if it happens. We'll see, again if that happens, if it affects what independents think. I assume MAGA and democrat voters are pretty locked in with their votes no matter the result of the trial.

2024-04-11 11:26:17

I don't know how many more stories that Heroes has to tell, but I'll watch this if it ever happens.

2024-04-11 09:35:43

Grizzlor wrote:

[Simply, NO. Nothing will dissuade them. One thing to keep in mind is this, the idea that "Evangelical" voters are in love with Trump is a misnomer. They are Republicans mainly, so they vote that ticket. They don't particularly care for them. Furthermore, just because a block is ID'd as evangelical, doesn't indicate how "devout" one might be. You could ID me as Catholic, but I don't practice at all.

I mean I told him that I think evangelicals are extremely radicalized - that if Trump told them to worship him instead of Jesus, they'd happily toss their bibles and crosses in exchange for a golden Trump statue. But he disagrees. He goes to an evangelical church (he's liberal) and he has a PhD in religious studies (or something like that). He says that abortion is the one area they won't follow him down.

This is well known right wing "entertainer?" Matt Walsh. He's extreme right wing, and he hated what Trump and Kari Lake had to say. He has 2.2MM followers on twitter, and he's very outspoken that this was the wrong thing to do and he's not willing to budge. It wouldn't take many people to decide they can't vote for someone that supports any "abortion rights" and either not vote or leave the top of the ballot empty. And remember these aren't normal Republican voters. The voters that Trump has added are low-propensity voters so it wouldn't take much for them to just not go on election day (because they won't mail in vote or vote early).

https://www.facebook.com/MattWalshBlog/ … 646268783/

Now the thing about Trump is that he's never been pro-life. This was the issue with him in 2016 in the Republican primaries. And it was the issue when he was up against DeSantis. It didn't matter this year because the abortion folks went all in on Trump. But as much as Trump brags about defeating Roe, I cannot imagine Trump actually cared about that. He didn't pick those judges, and he probably has no idea what they stand for. He did what the Federalist Society told him to do or he did whatever they paid him to do.

Trump doesn't want to ban abortion. Otherwise he'd have 50 kids, and he hates the ones he already has.

2024-04-10 18:46:56

My friend is a bit of an expert on evangelicals, and he wonders if the Trump messaging on abortion is going to drive some of them away. To them, any surrender on abortion is unacceptable. They didn't even like that he used the term "abortion rights" at all. I don't buy it...maybe some of them will leave the top of the ballot blank, but I assume it won't actually matter.

The polling is becoming more encouraging. A poll came out today that had Biden only down 2 in North Carolina. There might be an opportunity to flip a state like that that's been trending blue. If Trump does something stupid like try to flip New York, it could leave an opening in some places. Ironically, Trump could try some of the stuff Hillary tried, and it could leave Biden an opportunity.

It's important to remember that, while the electoral college helps Republicans, Biden just needs to play a little bit of defense. He doesn't have to win all the states he won in 2020 - he just needs to win half of the six toss up states. If he can win Pennsylvania, he just needs to win Michigan and Wisconsin or Arizona and Georgia or Georgia and Wisconsin or Michigan and Arizona. Lots of roads to win. Trump doesn't need to sweep all those states but he needs a lot of them. If Biden can do something surprising and win North Carolina, it gets even easier. Trump would essentially need to run the table of the rest of the states.

I feel better than I did a few weeks ago. And that's before you take into account any of the abortion measures (which makes Arizona more likely and even puts something like Florida in play) and left-leaning polling errors.

2024-04-09 13:09:08

I was screwing around on Microsoft Copilot, and I asked it who would win in a fight between Quinn and Spider-Man. From what I've seen of this, AI never picks a true winner and this didn't disappoint.

In the cosmic arena where dimensions collide, let us pit two unlikely contenders against each other: Spider-Man and Quinn Mallory from the interdimensional odyssey of Sliders.
Spider-Man (Peter Parker) swings into the fray, his agility and spider-sense honed by countless battles against foes like the Green Goblin, Venom, and Doctor Octopus. His web-slinging prowess and acrobatics make him a formidable force. But beware, for with great power comes great responsibility – and sometimes, a pesky J. Jonah Jameson editorial.
On the other side of the wormhole, we have Quinn Mallory, the accidental traveler of parallel worlds. Armed with a trusty timer and a penchant for stumbling into alternate realities, Quinn is no stranger to survival. He’s faced dystopian Earths, steampunk dimensions, and even a world where everyone communicates through interpretive dance (yes, really).
Now, let’s break it down:
Physical Prowess:
Spider-Man: Superhuman strength, agility, and reflexes. His spider-sense warns him of danger.
Quinn Mallory: Well, he’s not exactly a gym rat. But he’s resourceful and scrappy – the kind of guy who’d jury-rig a photon accelerator out of a toaster.
Arsenal:
Spider-Man: Web shooters, spider-tracers, and a suit that would make Tony Stark jealous.
Quinn Mallory: A trusty timer that opens wormholes. Not exactly a weapon, but it’s his ticket to adventure.
Intellectual Acumen:
Spider-Man: Brilliant scientist and inventor. He’s got brains to match his brawn.
Quinn Mallory: Quantum physicist (well, sort of). He understands sliding tech better than most.
Battle Tactics:
Spider-Man: Flips, quips, and web-based acrobatics. He’d probably tie Quinn up in a web cocoon.
Quinn Mallory: He’d slide to an Earth where Spider-Man is a mime, distracting him with invisible walls.
Motivation:
Spider-Man: Protecting New York City and honoring Uncle Ben’s memory.
Quinn Mallory: Finding his way home and avoiding Kromaggs (those nasty interdimensional hunters).
The Verdict: In a straight-up brawl, Spider-Man’s agility and combat skills give him the edge. But if Quinn can slide to a reality where Spider-Man is allergic to spider silk, all bets are off. Plus, Quinn’s luck is like a malfunctioning timer – unpredictable.
So, in the ultimate crossover event, Spider-Man might win the battle, but Quinn would slide away with the last laugh. And who knows, maybe they’d team up to fight a villainous version of Aunt May with six mechanical arms.
Remember, in the multiverse, anything is possible – even a dance-off between Spidey and Quinn.

2024-04-09 07:26:27

Polls are slowly (but surely) shifting toward Biden. And I saw a couple polls where RFK is siphoning votes off Trump more than Biden. Which makes sense as RFK continues to look more and more MAGA. I imagine the only people that would vote for Biden but choose RFK are doing so because they're critically misinformed or uneducated on the matter. RFK is to the right of Trump so it would take a really special voter to abandon Biden for him. The RFK voters I see online are DeSantis refugees who agree with him on the anti-vaxx stuff. I don't know what RFK's views on abortion are, but if they're conservative, then Trump's abortion message could push more Trump voters to him.

I don't think there's any way RFK gets the 11% he's polling at, but I figure more Biden voters will come home than Trump ones. I still think this is a miscalculation on Trump's part.

Trump has a tiny lead on the RCP average and Biden is winning on the Economist average. Obviously, Biden needs to win the national polls by a few points to win the electoral college, but those polls are also shifting. Pennsylvania has been looking pretty good, and Wisconsin and Georgia are trending toward him. Michigan looks bad right now, and Nevada might not be possible. But if the trends continue, I think things will be fine.

2024-04-05 10:16:03

This is what Biden needs to create *tons* of ads on. They need to be properly targeted, but non-MAGA Republicans that liked the first Trump administration need to know that the second one is not going to be like the first.

Again, the tactic needs to be to very clearly articulate that Trump is not a normal Republican or politician. He's a f*%#ing psychopath out for revenge.

2024-04-03 18:45:57

Grizzlor wrote:

hmm, didn't realize Coogler was pitching a reboot. I think the obvious focus has to be on AI, which is IMO the gravest threat to humanity ever created. Aliens and other such traditional conspiracies are no longer believable.

I used to be worried about aliens or AI, but I still maintain people are the biggest danger to humanity. At this point, there's at least a chance that aliens or AI is benevolent.

Also conspiracies used to be fun. Now its just everything.

2024-04-02 08:29:58

Here's the thing. I think Trump is a wannabe dictator. I think he is extremely dangerous, and I think he's willing to use his followers to go after people that threaten him. Instead of using the police or the military, I think Trump wants to use his loyal followers to do his dirty work because (and he's been right so far), he has deniability in his actions. If he ordered the military to attack the Capitol, then he's crossed the Rubicon. If he nudges his followers in a certain direction, he can defend himself.

I think the pick-up truck is obviously in extremely poor taste. I think it's extremely inappropriate for a presidential candidate to send that image out to the masses. But when you compare it to what Kathy Griffin did with the beheaded Trump, I think it's pretty bland. I think Trump is pretty evil, but I assume he didn't "tweet" it to his followers because he wants Biden dead or wants them to go after him. I think he thought it was funny and that's it. He's a child.

If they want to investigate the owner of the truck, that's fine. But since the imagery isn't nearly as violent as what Griffin did and since I don't think Trump was legitimately threatening Biden, I think this is something that we (meaning those that are anti-Trump) should drop.

2024-03-29 06:52:44

I think the losses with Hispanics are real, and it's something that Biden is going to have to deal with seriously. The problem is that, from what I've read, Hispanic Americans don't identify with the immigrants crossing the border. Especially if they're second generation or more, they consider themselves Americans, and they treat the issue like most Americans do. I even read an interview with an illegal immigrant, and he was saying he identifies with Trump more than Biden.

So Biden can't win over Hispanics with a pro-immigrant position. I think it's going to need to be about the improving economy, infrastructure improvements that provide jobs, and stuff like that. Basically the same pitch he's making to the rest of the country.

2024-03-28 10:43:17

I know Trump is campaigning off the trials, but why do these rich people even fight these cases if there's no chance they ever have to pay the fines? Why waste money on attorneys when you can just show up yourself, plead guilty, take whatever fine they give you, and never pay?

2024-03-28 08:18:14

Yeah, but that sucks, right? I don't want him to have to pay less because it would be too administratively difficult or because it might help him politically or whatever. I want the dude to pay for what he's done - monetarily or electorally first, and I guess with jail time if that's possible. I want the Trump name to crash and burn once he's gone, and I want him to be a footnote in history.

I understand treating him fairly, but it also feels weak to follow the rules with someone with no regard for the rules.

2024-03-26 13:04:27

Oh absolutely. That's what's so tragic. Donald Trump has people convinced that theres a two-tiered justice system. And there is. Just rich vs poor instead of red vs blue.

2024-03-25 15:35:45

The justice system jumped out of its way to protect Donald Trump again today. It's outrageous how he continues to claim he's being persecuted when he's probably the most protected citizen in the world today. He just never faces any consequences for his actions.

2024-03-25 12:47:45

Well here's the problem. In the current system, the 3rd party has no chance to win. People like to win or to celebrate being a part of a winner. They like when the guy they voted for wins. When you vote for a third party, you're essentially writing that part off, especially in a presidential election.

But then there's the other half of it - do the mainstream parties even care? In a perfect world, a third party candidate would be a viable alternative, especially in a year where a lot of people hate both of the main candidates. In an optimal world, the mainstream parties would move left or right to absorb the people that decided to vote for a third party candidate.

I just don't know if either of those things are happening. I don't know if the Democratic party adjusted to absorb people that voted for Jill Stein in 2016. And I certainly don't think the Democratic party will shift to absorb Democrats that vote for RFK Jr. So what is the point in voting third party if a) there's literally zero chance they could win and b) there might be literally no chance that your vote will force either major party to shift.

I don't know. Maybe it's pessimism with the system, but in the last three election cycles, the only candidate that wasn't openly hated by their own party is Joe Biden in 2020. And yet third parties in the country seem more irrelevant than ever. Of course, only about 100,000 votes in the entire election are going to really matter so it's probably much more hopeless than even I'm considering.

2024-03-25 08:12:22

So the thing about third party is that a lot of people are willing to say they will vote for Kennedy/Stein/West/etc now, but people end up coming back to the two parties by the time it's time to vote. Just like people in Michigan were protest voting Biden, but afterward, people were saying "of course I'll vote for Biden." I think that comes down to the fact that people don't tend to want to throw their vote away. Unless you actively hate both Biden and Trump *and* you truly believe in the third party candidate, people are going to want to think that their vote matters. That means a vote for one of the two major parties.

Whether Kennedy will actually impact the race comes in the data too. Most polls force 3rd party voters to pick Biden or Trump, and usually the lead for Biden/Trump doesn't really change. So it seems like the people picking third party candidates are evenly split.

The question is whether they'll stay evenly split.

2024-03-22 13:17:05

Grizzlor wrote:

I've made this point since last year, Biden is a terrible candidate. The voters are not lost, they are largely undecided.

Yeah, I don't disagree. I'd feel better if there was someone younger and stronger-looking on the top of the ballot. But when they poll anyone vs Trump, Biden actually still polls the best. The only place it seems to be better for a non-Biden candidate is Whitmer when it's a Michigan-only poll. So I don't know. The polling says Biden is weak but it also says Biden is the best the Democrats have to offer.

Kennedy will be on more ballots, because many states have these dumb rules where if you align with a political party (often a fly by night), you don't need that many signatures.

Yeah, I'm still just not convinced that Kennedy hurts Biden more than he hurts Trump. I'm sure there are going to be people who pay zero attention to the race and then pick Kennedy on name recognition alone, but I just don't think if there's any understanding about who Kennedy is, he'd pull very many votes from Biden.

Even as a protest vote against both parties, he doesn't make sense for people who would otherwise be for Biden. Stein makes way more sense for Biden voters who have climate change as their only issue, or even Cornel West as an African American. Once you know what he stands for, he just pushes none of buttons that would otherwise attract a Biden voter.

I guess if the idea is that there's a DeSantis voter who hates Trump and would vote for Biden in a two horse race but chooses to vote for Kennedy otherwise....I guess that makes sense. But isn't that guy just as likely to vote for DeSantis or Jeb Bush or something like that?

2024-03-22 08:08:02

Grizzlor wrote:

First Trump HAS a lot of money, it's just not cash. Nobody has "cash" in that amount because it would be completely counterintuitive to do so. With low interest rates, maintained at that level for years by Trump, holding cash was not a good investment. He did lie of course about having it to the judge, because he's crippled with insecurity, and cannot tell the truth about his portfolio. Anyway, his assets are real estate, and you can't just roll that over into cash overnight. AG James will be going to the Judge for liens on various Trump assets. Ironically, some of them are actually not going to fetch the state of NY very much. Several are so heavily mortgaged, that Trump actually retains very little actual ownership.

But that's the thing. If he owns a bunch of things that are heavily mortgaged, he doesn't really own anything. It's a house of cards. Now here's where it gets tricky. I don't think there's any question that if Mar-A-Lago went sale, it would fetch a ton just for the Trump novelty of it. I think it'd be a bidding war between Trump billionaires and anti-Trump billionaires for the right to use the property for their own politics-based nonsense. I'm also in agreement that Trump's getting hit with this stuff because he's Trump.

But 1) Trump knows this and if he didn't want to get hit with this stuff, he didn't need to be such an *sshole and 2) he still broke the law. Millions of people speed every day, and only a few people get caught. It doesn't mean that tickets shouldn't be written or that speeding isn't a crime.

I don't like Trump, and I'm willing to admit that it'd be funny if he had to sell off meaningful things at bargain basement prices. Because he'll never get that stuff back, and his kids have less to run into the ground once their dad is dead.

Again, they know they will lose, it's all about delay.

The lawyers know they will lose. But does Trump? Like with the election being stolen, I'm no longer convinced that Trump actually understands what's going on. I think he's convinced himself (or been convinced by others) that the election was stolen. And I think he's convinced himself (or been convinced by others) that total immunity is a thing. And I think it's going to be interesting (not good) to see how he responds to it. If you take him at his word, he should 100% drop out if immunity isn't granted. He says you cannot operate as president and that no one would do it.

Now he's 100% not going to drop out but now there's a clear cognitive dissonance, right? Trump is going to be saying "I don't have full immunity, I'm not going to be able to operate as president" and "I still want to be president" instead of "I cannot do this job without immunity so I don't want the job anymore."

The problem is that he's in too deep. If he doesn't run for president, he won't be able to delay the trials against him forever. He needs to be president to get the federal charges dismissed against him and get the state stuff delayed/ignored until he's out of office. And when he gets in, I think he'll still maintain that he has total immunity. And there's no question he'll try and stay in office after 2028 so any "I'll get indicted once I leave office" wouldn't even happen.

Also, the fact that SCOTUS even took the case (and delayed it so long) doesn't take off the table the idea that they'll side with Trump and give him total immunity.

Poll-wise I continue to point at some horrible cross tabs for Biden, whereby he won Latino vote by 30 points in 2020, and now leads by just a few points. It's one of the numbers which keep me up at night.

538 did a podcast on this the other day (I just finished it yesterday). They say it's important to be careful not to do too much crosstab diving at this point in the race. It is still early, and there's evidence of a) protest voting against Biden from people who are going to come back around to him in November and b) collective amnesia about Trump and his presidency. For example, one of the few places Biden polls better than Trump is in temperament, but he's barely leading. The polling suggests people don't think temperament is as important as it was in 2020, but there's still no question that Biden's temperament is much more presidential than Trump's. I think people have just forgotten, and they'll be reminded once they start paying attention.

https://abcnews.go.com/538/video/worrie … -108258022

Anyway, the podcast goes into whether or not polling is bad and where the numbers are good for both Biden and Trump. What's crazy about polling is that Biden is losing all the swing states (Michigan recently was tied), but the democrats are winning senate races in all the states. So there are people who are voting democrat for senator but Trump for president. There will certainly be *some* people who do that, but I assume as the race gets more real, people are going to go back to their respective camps.

Unfortunately, RFK Jr. is likely to appear on a majority of November ballots, that could be the difference in pulling additional votes from Biden.

Regarding RFK, he's only on the ballot in a handful of states (but they are key states). When I was pulling the link for the podcast above, I found this:

https://abcnews.go.com/538/rfk-jr-party … =108346487

I know the Biden campaign is worried about RFK, but they're being aggressive about it. RFK has the Kennedy name, but he's not a true Kennedy. Polls that have Democrats voting for Kennedy show that Democrats don't agree with his policies. It's going to take a media blitz to get it done, but right now, RFK is getting Democrat votes based off his name. If Biden can tell Democrats who RFK really is, I really think he's going to struggle to get Democrat support. I mean maybe there are hardcore anti-vax Democrats who would otherwise vote for Biden, but I just can't imagine that's the case. DeSantis voters line up pretty hard with RFK voters so that's a much more logical fit.

But again, it's going to mean getting through to those people. Biden's going to have a ton of money to spend, though. He's crushing Trump in fundraising, and Trump actually pulled in less money last month than Nikki Haley.

2024-03-21 19:19:02

There's something really funny about Trump losing a civil case where the state says that he doesn't have as much money as he says he does, he complains about how it's unfair and how much money he has, and then he doesn't have the money to pay the penalty.

I worry about Trump getting the money from a foreign power and owing them favors, but if he doesn't do that, I think this is going to really mess with his head. I'm sure it will make him crazier and more dangerous, but we'll see if that affects his polling.

I do wonder this - Trump keeps talking about how someone can't be president without total immunity. When the Supreme Court rules that total immunity is mularkey, how is Trump going to spin that? The way he talks, there's no way he would want to be president without immunity. We know he won't drop out, but his position has been so clear.

2024-03-21 09:23:25

It hasn't gotten a ton of coverage, but Biden's polls have been ticking up recently. If you look at the Economist polling average, Biden has taken the lead (https://www.economist.com/interactive/u … iden-polls). In the Real Clear Politics average, Trump is still up a couple points.

Meanwhile Biden is partnering with the Kennedy family to show that they're fully behind him (and not RFK Jr). I maintain that any Democrat voting for RFK is doing it strictly on name alone, and if Biden can make it clear what RFK stands for, he'll lose most of his left-leaning support. If everyone knew what RFK stood for, it would hurt Trump way more than it would hurt Biden I think.

2024-03-19 07:54:30

Grizzlor wrote:

The problem with being convicted in the "Stormy Daniels" case is that few if any voters are going to make a decision based on that. They were fine with this disgusting Access Hollywood tape, so this really won't have any effect. It may do the opposite, and galvanize his support.

I think you're conflating two ideas here, though. Trump's criminal indictments galvanized his support because it rallied the MAGA base, and that base is now fairly reliable in voting in whatever election Trump is on the ballot for. That's why he won so many primaries early. Were non-MAGA people galvanized by the indictments? Maybe? But they also could've just been galvanized by the uptick in polling. It's a perpetual motion machine - the indictments cause the polling to go up and the polling going up causes the polling to increase.

You have to remember that Fox News dominates the cable news ratings, but it's only a couple million people in the entire country. The *vast* majority of people don't follow this stuff at all. People aren't balancing Biden's age vs Trump's criminality because they probably aren't even thinking about it on a daily basis. I'm assuming you'd be shocked at the number of people who don't have any idea what the Access Hollywood tape even is. Who don't know who Stormy Daniels is. Or even people who don't know that Trump has *been indicted*

And these are the people that are going to decide the election. But the polling suggests that Trump getting convicted is a 10-point swing. Maybe more. Whichever poll you look at, it takes a Trump lead or a close race and turns it into a Biden win or a Biden landslide.

I think you're right that it would galvanize MAGA, but I'm not sure it does anything for him. MAGA might be at peak galvanization. Anyone plugged in enough to know that Trump is being indicted and Trumpy enough to think that the system is rigged against him is already voting for him. I can't imagine people are going to think the conviction is political when they don't already think the indictment itself is/was political.

The people that know about Access Hollywood or whatever know that Trump is sexist (and potentially a rapist or whatever) and they've made their bed with it. But what about the people that literally only know Trump as the president from 2016 to whatever and that's it? People that didn't pay attention in 2016 and 2020 or now. Polling suggests there are a ton of those people, and they're voting purely on vibes and memories. But if, between then and now, they find out that Trump was convicted of a felony, polling suggests they switch their votes. And the same lack of awareness that is hurting Biden now might hurt Trump later because they're not going to look into who Alvin Bragg is or the legality of the case or any sort of appeal. They're just going to know that their choice is Joe Biden or a guy who's literally a convicted felon.

Maybe it's wishful thinking but it's showing in the polls. People pick Trump unless he's convicted of a felony and then they pick Biden. And I just don't think they're taking all the variables into it. They might not even know (or care) that Trump is going to be on trial. But for those people, the conviction matters.

2024-03-18 10:59:16

So a couple things:

- Trump has basically said he can't afford to pay the settlement against him in New York. He can't secure a bond, and he doesn't have the cash. It'll be interesting to see what kind of leniency they give him and how he tries to spin it. MAGA will eat up whatever he gives them, but I don't know how independents and non-MAGA Republicans will take it. So much of his mystique is based on being a billionaire, and if he's saying he can't afford something, that could hurt him with the general electorate that doesn't know he's a lying conman.

- Trump continues to lead in a lot of the polling, but a ton of his support evaporates if he's convicted of a crime. Whether a conviction can even happen in any of these cases before November is very much still in the air, but that's huge. Even if something happens in the hush money case, I think it could be one of those situations where it could hurt him with average Americans who don't have the time or interest to follow this stuff day to day. Right now, people might be siding with Trump based on "gut feeling" that things were good pre-Covid (so Trump) and bad post-Covid (so Biden). But if that can be wrangled into "Trump is a criminal" that's pretty big.

And while the NY case is fairly political, I don't know if people are going to be more forgiving when the details of the case come out. I could easily see people saying "yeah that was a bit of a political whack job, but he paid a porn star hush money?" could be just as bad for him.

2024-03-15 14:05:18

Yeah between this and whatever happened in the New York case yesterday, I'm concerned that people aren't taking this seriously enough. Trump may seem very very very dumb, but he's spent his entire life escaping the consequences of his actions. Especially with almost four years to prepare, there's no reason for any of these cases to not be entirely buttoned up as much as possible. I hope these are nitpicks that Trump is taking advantage of and not actual flaws in either of these cases.

But as has been said much on Twitter, we simply cannot rely on the law to do its job here. The only way to defeat Trump is in November.

2024-03-14 14:53:57

Grizzlor wrote:

Garland was not the problem here. How is it his fault if Trump and most of the GOP and media decide to be deceitful?

I would've hired a Democrat to do the special investigation. There might've been half a day of complaints on Fox News about the choice in special investigator, but that's about it. About as much coverage as there has been about Eileen Cannon essentially working for Trump.

2024-03-13 18:47:55

There was some poetic justice for Garland put in the AG job after the Republicans unfairly kept him off the Supreme Court. But I do think Garland has been a terrible hire. History needed someone bold and fearless to prosecute Trump - not because he was a former president but because he's such a threat to democracy. Instead, Garland took way too much time. I know the wheels of justice turn slowly, and I know that this is a prosecution that the government can absolutely not fail. But they took too much time and allowed for Trump to a) start his campaign so it looks like election interference to enough people and b) delay, delay, delay.

Maybe Garland did everything right. Maybe history will still remember him as the guy who got Donald Trump. I don't know. But my feeling is that someone else would've been better for the job.

2024-03-13 14:26:29

Well, this is where the Democrats need to get better at "playing the game." They hired a partisan republican to write their report in an effort to look nonpartisan, but I don't know if the gain from that was worth it. If the democrats had hired either an independent or a democrat, there might've been a little bit of backlash for the report being written by a democrat, but it would've been in mostly Fox News circles. They did the right thing, but doing the right thing doesn't carry the same weight in politics that it used to.

At some point, Democrats need to pivot to doing the smart thing. If they don't, we'll be living under fascism, and it won't matter if we did the right thing or the wrong thing.

2024-03-13 07:24:10

QuinnSlidr wrote:

"Sleepy"? You do see why I think you're secretly a republican agent posing as a democrat?
Attacks on dems, attacks on Joe, insulting Joe, etc...

I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure he was just making fun of Trump calling him that when he was anything but Sleepy.

2024-03-12 07:25:29

ireactions wrote:

Biden is better when he yells.

Yeah I just think people just need to see that he's still working hard. Which, of course, he is.

I got a booster today for measles, mumps, rubella and varicella. Measles seems to be making a comeback.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-we-kn … d-in-2024/

Yeah, this is so annoying. And Trump said the other day that he'd defund schools that support vaccine mandates. I really wish they'd make a big deal about that because I can't imagine independents want that.

2024-03-11 08:43:12

It's crazy - since it didn't fit their narrative, the new narrative is that they drugged Joe up to get him to perform like that. Which is just so funny because *everything* related to Trump is projection. People have been accusing Trump of using drugs to give his speeches. I'm not nearly educated enough on that to comment so I'm not comfortable saying one way or another, but accusing Biden of it and ignoring the same stuff out of Trump is just crazy. I mean there was a confirmed drug-running operation in the Trump White House with uppers just to keep people going. But Biden gives a fairly-long speech and now he's on drugs?

I didn't even think it was all that fiery. He still seemed old to me - just slightly more energetic. Maybe because he knew it was important? If I was giving a big speech that would determine the next four years of my life, I'd probably give special attention to looking lively and ready. Doesn't mean I'd be using drugs.

*****

Some solid polling for Biden coming out of the weekend. And Trump had a 29% approval rating, which was lower than Biden's. Just a couple one-off polls but maybe the tide is starting to turn. Polling hasn't had a great 2024, but I'd feel much better if it was leaning our way and not Trump's.

2024-03-10 19:06:34

Grizzlor wrote:

I don't know that sports necessarily did much to/for the Quinn character. I think it was something that interested him far more as a child/teenager than now, where his intense study and experimentation seemed to take place of all over interests.

Do they ever mention sports outside of the fact that Rembrandt is signing the national anthem at a Giants game? I would think one of the sorta fun aspects of sliding would be to see how my teams performed from Earth to Earth. Was I lucky to be from my Earth (where at least my teams won sometimes) or was I seriously unlucky (and my teams won way more on all other Earths).

ireactions, I could've helped with the sports references

2024-03-10 19:03:19

ireactions wrote:

What kind of chicken sandwich was it?
I was eating one last night and thought of you.

I think it was just a plain McChicken sandwich? It was definitely just a plain fried chicken sandwich with white sauce (mayonnaise?). It's oddly specific for me because I don't remember eating McDonalds much as a kid, and I think I ate a lot of chicken mcnuggets back then instead of something like that. I guess I was trying to branch out.

I haven't had McDonalds in 17 years so I could be mixing up their menu.

2024-03-08 08:47:46

QuinnSlidr wrote:

An amazing State of the Union Address from President Biden. Not a single flub, with plenty of attacks on rethuglicans and Trump (Hitler). Even the hecklers like MTG didn't cause any flubs.
Based on the cameras on MSNBC, nobody wanted to be a rethuglican in that room tonight.
Well done, Mr. President!!!

I have a stomach bug so I fell asleep about 30 minutes into the timeslot (so about 10 minutes into the speech) but he did great. I would be surprised if his polling didn't go up as he's clearly not an old man. One of my more-conservative friends was saying on social media that Biden was going to need two intermissions. He's anti-Trump but also anti-Biden and if he ended up watching, I'm sure he was impressed.

Biden's polling was already a little better after Super Tuesday as people started realizing that the matchup is the matchup. I feel a tiny bit better about November, but there's a long way to go. Last night was a huge help.

2024-03-07 08:07:32

QuinnSlidr wrote:

Trump is never a good thing. It's also not about keeping a guy because "he won last time". Racism, Hitler-enablement and being a serial rapist is never okay. Bragging that you can murder somebody in the middle of 5th Avenue because you think you're so popular that they'll never do anything to you in terms of consequences is never okay.
Voting against Trump is about keeping fascism and literal Hitler out of the White House. I love Biden. He's done his job successfully and has continued to be effective as an amazing President. And he has earned my vote. So has Adam Schiff. And voting for our democracy over fascism is worthwhile (which I hope the bottom 3 generations turning voting age this year are aware of).

I mean I totally agree with everything you said. I just don't know why it's taboo to challenge a sitting president. If he's the right guy for the moment still, the voters would support him. If he's not, you get the strongest candidate. Polls show that Biden is still the strongest to face Trump in November, but I just wonder if that would've been different if anyone had actually thrown their hat in the race.

It doesn't matter, though. Biden is the guy. I donated to his campaign yesterday.

2024-03-06 20:21:22

So what I'd really like to see (if we get to keep having elections in America) is for it to be okay for a sitting president to get primaried. I don't see why a sitting president shouldn't have to defend his/her record, and I don't see how it's democratic to just keep a guy because he won last time. Someone can be the right person for the job one election cycle and not the right person the next cycle. And I think it's okay to admit that someone might've been good for four years, but someone else could be better.

"But how does it help unite the party behind one guy if there's a challenge?"

I mean open primaries happen for at least one party every year, and in most cases, both parties every 8 years. In other words, 75% of primaries are open primaries. I don't think Biden was any more hurt by facing an open primary in 2020 than he is now - in fact, you could argue it's worse.

Now I think it would encourage primaries to be friendlier. I don't think it would help if Newsom or Warnock was attacking Biden on his age for three months. But I think Biden facing his critics and seeing what the voters think is a good thing. And if Biden was the man for the job, he'd win an open primary. And a battle-tested Biden might be better prepared to face Trump.

I don't think it'll happen anytime soon, but I'd like to see it.

I don't know what would've helped derail Trump. I don't know if Haley had gone negative on Trump earlier if it would've made a difference. I honestly don't know if the indictments would've made a difference either. I think Mitch McConnell might've been the only one that could've stopped Trump, and it sucks that he didn't do that.

But I still think Trump is a unique specimen that won't easily be reproduced. And maybe we'll never see anything like it again in our lifetimes.

2024-03-06 08:54:35

Okay so it's Biden vs Trump.

*Sigh*

*Deep Breath*

Okay. So on paper this matchup is really no matchup at all. One is a wannabe fascist who tried to overturn democracy and is clearly a sociopathic narcissist who doesn't have America's best interests at heart. One is a public servant for decades who has worked to improve infrastructure, has tried to bridge the gap, and is willing to follow political norms.

The reality is that Biden is very old, acts very old, speaks very old, and has very low approval ratings. A lot of that is the polarized nature of our politics where 50% of the nation will hate you because of what color tie you wear (its not exactly 50% but you get my point). Some of it could be agism. Some of it is based on things that aren't his fault (covid, supply chain stuff, worldwide inflation, etc).

But it is what it is. In 2024, the president will be Trump or it will be Biden. Not a third party. Not a white knight. Trump or Biden.

Our goal needs to be (as the anti-Trump bloc) to remind as many people as possible who Trump is. Not "the president in 2019 when life was better." Not the guy who the media shows 2-second sound bytes that make him seem normal. The guy who is adamantly anti-democratic. The guy who is a raging narcissist. The guy who has been indicted in 91 felonies. The one who paid a porn star to quiet her after an affair he had. The one who asked the governor of Georgia to find him votes. The one who worked to get the vice president hanged. The one who tried to get Congress killed. The one who hoarded sensitive classified documents and showed them to anyone who could get into his golf club.

Sensible Americans might vote for one of those two guys. They won't vote for the other.

My hope is:

- the polls are critically flawed. Primary voting has shown a massive underestimation of Biden and a massive overestimation of Trump. If that continues (even if it's a small continuation), Biden sails to a victory.

- the more people see of Trump, the more they will remember why they didn't like him. I'm hoping that people have forgotten why they didn't like Trump between 2016 and 2020. I don't think there's any chance he's done anything to win people back. So my hope is that as people start paying attention and Trump/Biden becomes a reality in people's minds, they'll remember who this dude is. And that the Biden campaign can show them the man that the media has yet to show them - a rambling, incoherent, narcissitic lunatic who can never be president again.

The game is on. Let's do this.

2024-03-03 19:25:17

What I'm holding on to is that people have just softened on Trump because he's not in the public eye today. As the election nears, people (and I mean people that aren't following his speeches on a daily basis) are going to see more of him and be turned off (again) by him. I think people are obviously upset with Biden about the economy (at least the economy in 2021 and 2022), about Israel, about Ukraine, etc. But as the economy continues to thrive and people forget about 2021 a little more, Biden has the opportunity to remind them of the infrastructure wins he got (which help a ton of people) and remind them that Trump is a crazy lunatic.

Right now, people aren't picking the lesser of two evils - they're just picking "not Biden". If Biden can get people to remember why they voted for him (or why they didn't vote for Trump), I think he'll be fine. I also think Trump has hit his ceiling. In most of these polls, there's more than enough undecideds for Biden to make up the distance. They may just be people who can't currently say they support Biden, and I assume a lot of those people will not go to Trump. I think all the people that are going to support Trump already do.

2024-03-01 17:34:24

Grizzlor wrote:

Does that mean either judge will actually start the cases prior to November?

I think the DC case will start if they can before the election.

So Trump has done a couple of wily things. He suggested an August trial date for the documents case. Even though that case should be open and shut, Cannon can really make it difficult on the prosecution, plus the fact that it's a Florida jury. If Cannon accepts the August trial date, it could mess with the timing of the DC case. Then Trump can either hope the documents case continues to get pushed back, or he gets a pre-election acquittal from a friendly jury.

Would've been really nice if the Supreme Court just kicked back Trump's ridiculous argument.

2024-02-29 16:01:11

Grizzlor wrote:

Joe Biden's campaign need to come up with some kind of economic message or he's a goner.

I mean isn't the message "look around?" Gas prices are down. The stock market is way up. Jobs are up. Wages are up. The economy is really good. People that think the economy is bad.

Even FOX News is pushing back on the narrative that the economy is somehow terrible.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/ … r-BB1iTkcC

I guess people are allowed to be upset about how prices are higher now than they were in 2019, but 2019 was 5 years ago. Even at normal inflation numbers, prices would be higher five years later.

2024-02-29 12:59:41

QuinnSlidr wrote:

His faux "Christian" followers (despite the fact that they are all the antithesis of the name Christian), are not the ones to worry about. They are a very small minority at around a 23% portion of the overall republican vote.

Well the Evangelicals aren't going to care. They know who he is and don't care. But Evangelicals are only about 1/3 of the Christians in the country. A lot of voters in this country probably have no idea who Stormy Daniels is, and I'm sure a decent amount of them would have trouble voting for someone who paid hush money to a porn star he was cheating on his wife with.

If we can get the majority of voters to know who Stormy Daniels is, and if Trump is convicted, I think it might be a bridge too far for independents and even some republicans. Again, my wife watches the news every morning, but she isn't political. She has no idea what Trump is alleged of doing. And she's not alone.

I was listening to a podcast and they were talking about how they're possibly going to get a jury for these Trump cases because everyone knows about it. But everyone doesn't. Some people actively don't pay attention to politics. The reporter agreed that when he does "Man on the Street" type interviews, people have no idea who is running and pay no attention. These are the voters that decide elections, and they just need to know what's happened. And if they do, I think a lot of them will turn away from Trump.

2024-02-29 10:00:37

I'm sure there will be tons of campaign ads. If Trump ever does a real debate, he'll be asked. It doesn't matter, though, he'll wiggle out with some excuse that his people will believe.

At this point, I wouldn't count on anything impacting Trump outside of the New York trial being juicy enough to get people interested. I think a lot of people, especially some of his Christian followers, might be turned off by some of the details coming out of that.

2024-02-28 17:54:57

Grizzlor wrote:

Trump has yet to pay, he's yet to see justice, and at this rate, as I said months ago, and was laughed it, very likely that will never happen.

Well if he loses the election, he'll face justice. Not saying he won't get away with it, but he'll face the trials. He can only delay it so long, and the government will press for it. If he wins, of course, he'll get away with all of it.

The New York trial is the weakest case in the sense that Trump wouldn't even really face jail time, but remember that people aren't plugged into this stuff. Swing voters that barely pay attention will know that Trump is a convicted felon. Swing voters that start paying attention will realize that Trump paid a porn star hush money while he was cheating on his wife. That doesn't matter in MAGA Land, but it matters in a lot of places. That will absolutely cost him votes one way or another.

But all in all, I'm very disappointed in SCOTUS. The legal system is way too slow, and guys like Trump are more than happy to take advantage of that. Also, this goes back to Garland taking his sweet time. This should've gone to trial a year ago or more.

2024-02-28 14:17:16

So just some food for thought.

Eileen Cannon is the judge over the documents case. She's a Trump appointee, and people have all-but accused her of doing Trump's dirty work. Even before the indictment, she made some baffling decisions that benefited Trump.

The trial is currently set for May, and almost no one believes that Cannon will stick to it. She's already said that she's willing to give enough time for the defense to do its work, and if that means delaying the start, so be it. It's almost impossible to get a judge thrown off a case so it basically is what it is.

Anyway, so Trump requested that some documents be unsealed and provided to him. It was highly unusual and legal experts said there's no reason for her to allow it. Still, a lot of people assumed she'd allow it. She might've even indicated that she would. But yesterday, she denied it. Legal experts I follow said it was the right thing to do.

I may have gotten some details wrong - I'm not an attorney - but one thought was mentioned by someone. This would've been the first time that Judge Cannon finally saw some of the documents that are being discussed. Is there any chance that she supported Trump and angled for him because she believes in him....and when she finally saw what he was hoarding, she was horrified? Is there any chance this flipped a switch and she's more willing to take the case to trial?

2024-02-28 09:48:48

Grizzlor wrote:

Trump meanwhile trending about 2/3 of the vote, Nikki Haley slipping below 28%. Tons of votes to be counted, Michigan is beyond slow, despite early voting. Obviously, once again, it's a lot worse of a look to be missing 1/4-1/3 of your primary electorate to another identifiable different candidate. Haley of course, got clobbered here again. She has the money to compete through next Tuesday, but probably will be mathematically eliminated. She may still keep going anyway, although the money is going to be thin. Trump again underperforms polling. Michigan's GOP is also a total disaster, with warring factions of Trumpers battling over the last several years, to the point where today's vote will have almost no affect on delegates. They will be mostly award in next week's state convention, which is sure to be a real farce.

Well, the strategy (I think) has to do with the idea that, in the case that Trump is not able to be the nominee (for whatever reason), Haley would have the inside track. I forget what happens to Republican delegates if Trump is out, but Haley is going to be second, and she's going to have the second-most votes. It might be worth it for her to stay in the race even if the chance is 1 in a million that Trump drops out. But he is late 70s, in terrible shape, is under 91 felony indictments, and is widely hated. There's a lot of ways Trump wouldn't be the nominee that wouldn't normally apply.

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