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Unbelievable violent imagery from the EX-President:
https://x.com/patriottakes/status/17738 … 35916?s=20
https://x.com/ruthbenghiat/status/17738 … 71704?s=20
https://x.com/ruthbenghiat/status/17744 … 71626?s=20
Here's the thing. I think Trump is a wannabe dictator. I think he is extremely dangerous, and I think he's willing to use his followers to go after people that threaten him. Instead of using the police or the military, I think Trump wants to use his loyal followers to do his dirty work because (and he's been right so far), he has deniability in his actions. If he ordered the military to attack the Capitol, then he's crossed the Rubicon. If he nudges his followers in a certain direction, he can defend himself.
I think the pick-up truck is obviously in extremely poor taste. I think it's extremely inappropriate for a presidential candidate to send that image out to the masses. But when you compare it to what Kathy Griffin did with the beheaded Trump, I think it's pretty bland. I think Trump is pretty evil, but I assume he didn't "tweet" it to his followers because he wants Biden dead or wants them to go after him. I think he thought it was funny and that's it. He's a child.
If they want to investigate the owner of the truck, that's fine. But since the imagery isn't nearly as violent as what Griffin did and since I don't think Trump was legitimately threatening Biden, I think this is something that we (meaning those that are anti-Trump) should drop.
Here's the thing. I think Trump is a wannabe dictator. I think he is extremely dangerous, and I think he's willing to use his followers to go after people that threaten him. Instead of using the police or the military, I think Trump wants to use his loyal followers to do his dirty work because (and he's been right so far), he has deniability in his actions. If he ordered the military to attack the Capitol, then he's crossed the Rubicon. If he nudges his followers in a certain direction, he can defend himself.
I think the pick-up truck is obviously in extremely poor taste. I think it's extremely inappropriate for a presidential candidate to send that image out to the masses. But when you compare it to what Kathy Griffin did with the beheaded Trump, I think it's pretty bland. I think Trump is pretty evil, but I assume he didn't "tweet" it to his followers because he wants Biden dead or wants them to go after him. I think he thought it was funny and that's it. He's a child.
If they want to investigate the owner of the truck, that's fine. But since the imagery isn't nearly as violent as what Griffin did and since I don't think Trump was legitimately threatening Biden, I think this is something that we (meaning those that are anti-Trump) should drop.
Kathy Griffin is a heroine. LOL. And she's all right in my book. She only did it to an inanimate object, for cryin' out loud.
Trump (Hitler) did it to a real photo of the President. Big difference.
And few if any will change their minds. If you have any sort of acceptance of Trump being the psychopath he is, but that his "policies" somehow helped you, there will be no changing of minds. I think the greater risk is that people will simply not vote against Trump. They will stay home, or will vote for a bigger nutcase like Kennedy. Biden is not getting those voters. They think he's too old, and blame him for inflation and crimes of migrants.
Former Trump officials are among the most vocal opponents of returning him to the White House
https://apnews.com/article/former-trump … ce=Twitter
NEW YORK (AP) — Former Defense Secretary Mark Esper has called him a “threat to democracy.” Former national security adviser John Bolton has declared him “unfit to be president.” And former Vice President Mike Pence has declined to endorse him, citing “profound differences.”
As Donald Trump seeks the presidency for a third time, he is being vigorously opposed by a vocal contingent of former officials who are stridently warning against his return to power and offering dire predictions for the country and the rule of law if his campaign succeeds.
It’s a striking chorus of detractors, one without precedent in the modern era, coming from those who witnessed first-hand his conduct in office and the turmoil that followed.
Sarah Matthews, a former Trump aide who testified before the House Jan. 6 committee and is among those warning about the threat he poses, said it’s “mind-boggling” how many members of his senior staff have denounced him.
“These are folks who saw him up close and personal and saw his leadership style,” Matthews said.
“The American people should listen to what these folks are saying because it should be alarming that the people that Trump hired to work for him a first term are saying that he’s unfit to serve for a second term.”
Yet the critics remain a distinct minority. Republican lawmakers and officials across the party have endorsed Trump’s bid — some begrudgingly, others with fervor and enthusiasm. Many aides and Cabinet officials who served under Trump are onboard for another term, something Trump’s campaign is quick to highlight.
“The majority of the people who served in President Trump’s cabinet and in his administration, like the majority of Americans, have overwhelmingly endorsed his candidacy to beat Crooked Joe Biden and take back the White House,” said Trump campaign spokesman Steven Cheung.
Still, the Biden campaign has trumpeted the criticism of former Trump officials in statements and social media posts, hoping to convince at least some Republican voters — including those who backed other candidates during the GOP primary — that they cannot support his candidacy.
“Those who worked with Donald Trump at the most senior levels of his administration believe he is too dangerous, too selfish and too extreme to ever lead our country again — we agree,” said Biden campaign spokesman Ammar Moussa.
In many ways, the schism among former Trump officials is an extension of his time in the White House. Friction was constant as Trump’s demands ran into resistance from some officials and aides who refused requests that they found misguided, unrealistic and, at times, flatly illegal. Firings were frequent. Many quit.
Staff upheaval was particularly intense in the chaotic weeks after the 2020 election as Trump worked to overturn his election loss to Biden. Trump summoned supporters to Washington on Jan. 6, 2021, as his falsehoods about a stolen election became the rallying cry for supporters who violently breached the U.S. Capitol. Many people serving in the administration quit in protest, including Matthews.
Trump’s attempt to remain in office included a bitter pressure campaign against Pence, who as vice president was tasked with presiding over the count of the Electoral College ballots on Jan. 6. Trump was adamant that Pence should prevent Biden from becoming president, something he had no power to do. Pence had to flee the Senate chamber on Jan. 6 as rioters stormed the building to chants of “Hang Mike Pence!”
Pence recently said he “cannot in good conscience” endorse Trump because of Jan. 6 and other issues, despite being proud of what they achieved together.
And Pence is not alone.
Esper, who was fired by Trump days after the 2020 election, clashed with the then-president over several issues, including Trump’s push to deploy military troops to respond to civil unrest after the killing of George Floyd by police in 2020.
In a recent interview with HBO’s “Real Time With Bill Maher,” Esper repeated a warning that Trump is “a threat to democracy” and added, “I think there’s a lot to be concerned about.”
“There’s no way I’ll vote for Trump, but every day that Trump does something crazy, the door to voting for Biden opens a little bit more, and that’s where I’m at,” Esper said.
Among Trump’s most vocal critics are former aides who worked closely with him in the White House, particularly a trio who gained prominence testifying about the Jan. 6 attack and Trump’s push to overturn the election.
The group includes Matthews, former Trump White House communications director Alyssa Farah Griffin and Cassidy Hutchinson, a former top aide to Trump chief of staff Mark Meadows. They have given a series of interviews in recent months opposing their former boss.
“Fundamentally, a second Trump term could mean the end of American democracy as we know it, and I don’t say that lightly,” Griffin told ABC in December.
John Kelly, Trump’s former chief of staff, had his own long falling-out with Trump. Kelly, in a lengthy October statement to CNN, described Trump as “a person who admires autocrats and murderous dictators” and “has nothing but contempt for our democratic institutions, our Constitution, and the rule of law.”
Olivia Troye, a former Pence adviser who left the White House in 2020, and former press secretary Stephanie Grisham, who resigned Jan. 6, are both outspoken critics who said they didn’t vote for Trump in 2020.
Even Bill Barr, Trump’s former attorney general who has not ruled out voting for him again, has referred to Trump as “a consummate narcissist” who “constantly engages in reckless conduct that puts his political followers at risk and the conservative and Republican agenda at risk.”
Still, the ranks of former Trump officials opposing his bid are greatly outnumbered by those who are supportive.
Linda McMahon, who headed the Small Business Administration under Trump, is co-chairing a major fundraiser for the former president on Saturday in Florida, along with former Trump Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross.
McMahon is also chair of the board of The America First Policy Institute, which is packed with supportive former Trump officials and has been described as an “administration in waiting” for a second Trump term.
The institute is headed by Brooke Rollins, Trump’s former domestic policy chief, and counts Pence’s national security adviser and retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg among its chairs, along with former Energy Secretary Rick Perry, Trump’s U.S. trade representative Robert Lighthizer, and former National Economic Council director Larry Kudlow.
Former acting Attorney General Matthew Whitaker has campaigned for Trump, as has former Housing Secretary Ben Carson, who called him “a friend of America.”
Trump’s also got the backing of former acting Director of National Intelligence Richard Grenell, former Interior Secretary and Montana Rep. Ryan Zinke, and Russell Vought, who ran Trump’s Office of Management and Budget.
Vought said in a post on X that Trump is “the only person I trust to take a wrecking ball to the Deep State.”
Trump supporters are also quick to dismiss critics in the party.
Carmen McVane, who attended Trump’s rally Tuesday in Green Bay, Wisconsin, said those who speak negatively against Trump or refuse to endorse are RINOs, or Republicans In Name Only, and will only help Biden and Democrats.
“There’s a lot of RINOs who don’t do what they’re supposed to do,” McVane said. “It’s time for everyone to back who we have and go full force ahead.”
This is what Biden needs to create *tons* of ads on. They need to be properly targeted, but non-MAGA Republicans that liked the first Trump administration need to know that the second one is not going to be like the first.
Again, the tactic needs to be to very clearly articulate that Trump is not a normal Republican or politician. He's a f*%#ing psychopath out for revenge.
RFK Jr. campaign director literally admitting they are running to allow Trump to win.
Polls are slowly (but surely) shifting toward Biden. And I saw a couple polls where RFK is siphoning votes off Trump more than Biden. Which makes sense as RFK continues to look more and more MAGA. I imagine the only people that would vote for Biden but choose RFK are doing so because they're critically misinformed or uneducated on the matter. RFK is to the right of Trump so it would take a really special voter to abandon Biden for him. The RFK voters I see online are DeSantis refugees who agree with him on the anti-vaxx stuff. I don't know what RFK's views on abortion are, but if they're conservative, then Trump's abortion message could push more Trump voters to him.
I don't think there's any way RFK gets the 11% he's polling at, but I figure more Biden voters will come home than Trump ones. I still think this is a miscalculation on Trump's part.
Trump has a tiny lead on the RCP average and Biden is winning on the Economist average. Obviously, Biden needs to win the national polls by a few points to win the electoral college, but those polls are also shifting. Pennsylvania has been looking pretty good, and Wisconsin and Georgia are trending toward him. Michigan looks bad right now, and Nevada might not be possible. But if the trends continue, I think things will be fine.
LOL, I follow Ron also. It's nonsensical to blame President's for gas prices, and in most cases, inflation, given there's not a ton an administration can do about that. However, the messaging from Biden is flat out terrible. He needs to stop boasting about the economy as if it's absolutely supreme. For many people, it's not. Even if they're doing well, there is tremendous anxiety and anger over the ridiculous way in which you're being ripped off for every day expenses. He has to be more empathetic.
I saw something this morning about Biden will now openly question whether he has the authority to "close the border" with executive actions. Trump tried many of these, they were usually shot down in court, but it took time. Biden should have been issuing these orders 6 months ago. Even if they are eventually stopped, who cares, at least you can say you tried SOMETHING!
To me, the reason Biden approval is this bad is inaction. He seems to just let issues fester and fester, allows the media to drive the entire narrative, gets beat up, and still does nothing. Frankly the border inaction is just stunning at this point. And while he has no control over Netanyahu, he looks completely sidelined. To think, a US President has zero control? Why are you still sending military aid without strings? What is your leverage then? Ukraine is another one, where there's been zero action on aid. Yes, the GOP is holding it up, but the net result is a big negative for Biden, because he's let completely neutered.
Biden is never going to reclaim an advantage with the economy or immigration, he's sunk by close to double digits on those, and it's largely his own inaction, or worse messaging, to blame. If abortion or threats to democracy creep up the latter in importance, he will do better. It's really about what are the crucial issues in the months leading up to voting.
My friend is a bit of an expert on evangelicals, and he wonders if the Trump messaging on abortion is going to drive some of them away. To them, any surrender on abortion is unacceptable. They didn't even like that he used the term "abortion rights" at all. I don't buy it...maybe some of them will leave the top of the ballot blank, but I assume it won't actually matter.
The polling is becoming more encouraging. A poll came out today that had Biden only down 2 in North Carolina. There might be an opportunity to flip a state like that that's been trending blue. If Trump does something stupid like try to flip New York, it could leave an opening in some places. Ironically, Trump could try some of the stuff Hillary tried, and it could leave Biden an opportunity.
It's important to remember that, while the electoral college helps Republicans, Biden just needs to play a little bit of defense. He doesn't have to win all the states he won in 2020 - he just needs to win half of the six toss up states. If he can win Pennsylvania, he just needs to win Michigan and Wisconsin or Arizona and Georgia or Georgia and Wisconsin or Michigan and Arizona. Lots of roads to win. Trump doesn't need to sweep all those states but he needs a lot of them. If Biden can do something surprising and win North Carolina, it gets even easier. Trump would essentially need to run the table of the rest of the states.
I feel better than I did a few weeks ago. And that's before you take into account any of the abortion measures (which makes Arizona more likely and even puts something like Florida in play) and left-leaning polling errors.
My friend is a bit of an expert on evangelicals, and he wonders if the Trump messaging on abortion is going to drive some of them away. To them, any surrender on abortion is unacceptable. They didn't even like that he used the term "abortion rights" at all. I don't buy it...maybe some of them will leave the top of the ballot blank, but I assume it won't actually matter.
Simply, NO. Nothing will dissuade them. One thing to keep in mind is this, the idea that "Evangelical" voters are in love with Trump is a misnomer. They are Republicans mainly, so they vote that ticket. They don't particularly care for them. Furthermore, just because a block is ID'd as evangelical, doesn't indicate how "devout" one might be. You could ID me as Catholic, but I don't practice at all.
I feel better than I did a few weeks ago. And that's before you take into account any of the abortion measures (which makes Arizona more likely and even puts something like Florida in play) and left-leaning polling errors.
Food inflation continues to be an outright disaster, and that is driving blue collar voters away. Arizona is back in play after that ridiculous abortion situation. Trump is trying to have it both ways, he can't. He boasted about Roe vs. Wade being stopped, and this is the result. "Leave it to the states" is the most putrid cop out there's been, with regards to rights being abandoned.
[Simply, NO. Nothing will dissuade them. One thing to keep in mind is this, the idea that "Evangelical" voters are in love with Trump is a misnomer. They are Republicans mainly, so they vote that ticket. They don't particularly care for them. Furthermore, just because a block is ID'd as evangelical, doesn't indicate how "devout" one might be. You could ID me as Catholic, but I don't practice at all.
I mean I told him that I think evangelicals are extremely radicalized - that if Trump told them to worship him instead of Jesus, they'd happily toss their bibles and crosses in exchange for a golden Trump statue. But he disagrees. He goes to an evangelical church (he's liberal) and he has a PhD in religious studies (or something like that). He says that abortion is the one area they won't follow him down.
This is well known right wing "entertainer?" Matt Walsh. He's extreme right wing, and he hated what Trump and Kari Lake had to say. He has 2.2MM followers on twitter, and he's very outspoken that this was the wrong thing to do and he's not willing to budge. It wouldn't take many people to decide they can't vote for someone that supports any "abortion rights" and either not vote or leave the top of the ballot empty. And remember these aren't normal Republican voters. The voters that Trump has added are low-propensity voters so it wouldn't take much for them to just not go on election day (because they won't mail in vote or vote early).
https://www.facebook.com/MattWalshBlog/ … 646268783/
Now the thing about Trump is that he's never been pro-life. This was the issue with him in 2016 in the Republican primaries. And it was the issue when he was up against DeSantis. It didn't matter this year because the abortion folks went all in on Trump. But as much as Trump brags about defeating Roe, I cannot imagine Trump actually cared about that. He didn't pick those judges, and he probably has no idea what they stand for. He did what the Federalist Society told him to do or he did whatever they paid him to do.
Trump doesn't want to ban abortion. Otherwise he'd have 50 kids, and he hates the ones he already has.
As some of these older polls age out of aggregators, Biden is starting to take small leads in overall polling most places. Now a small lead nationally won't do it, and I'm pretty sure state-level polling still has Trump with enough states to win the electoral college. But it's a step in the right direction.
Experts seem to think Trump is going to lose this hush money case. I would think especially if Trump is muttering himself like a crazy person the whole time. It won't give him any jail time, but he'll legally be a convicted felon if it happens. We'll see, again if that happens, if it affects what independents think. I assume MAGA and democrat voters are pretty locked in with their votes no matter the result of the trial.
The situation with Trump's $175 million bond is... weird, to put it mildly. Something is off.
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-l … al-1890249
Something is really off with the company for Trump's bond:
https://www.salon.com/2024/04/16/absurd … -his-face/
Yeah, I don't understand why Trump wouldn't just put the money up himself? I'm guessing it's the principle of it, if that's even true? I also don't understand what the company gets out of it outside of promises of future benefits from a possible future president?
I think the obvious thing is that a) Trump doesn't have the cash to secure the bond and b) the only company that was willing to do it is sketchy and probably not following the rules. I could be wrong though and am not an expert on this stuff.
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Jury selection in the hush money case is rolling along. I still worry, especially since right wing media is actively encouraging this, that a MAGA person will get on the jury and hold things up. If Trump gets off because a jury of his peers didn't find the case strong enough, so be it. But the trial needs to be fair. Hopefully if someone is able to get onto the jury that they can be weeded out and replaced with an alternate.
Trump is either using the Charles Schwab cash account as collateral somewhere else, or he's wishing to continue earning interest on that $175 million. Versus paying the bond fee. I would say his underlying business "philosophy" is probably most notable, which is to avoid using your own money, for anything.
https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2 … s-00152863
Meanwhile, the current DC crisis is whether Speaker Mike can get anything through his caucus of block heads? He has bizarrely proposed to offer four separate bills to aid Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, and I believe the border. Absurd considering, if they get a vote (will pass), they'd likely be repackaged as one bill that goes to the Senate.
Beyond that, a PAC affiliated with a bitter Kevin McCarthy are running ads against the GOP (and Dem) members who voted him out. Ironically, the "American Prosperity Alliance" is running spots in GOP primaries against those who rejected the bipartisan Border bill, infamously scuttled by defendant Trump.
The Supreme Court are currently hearing arguments from a January 6 defendant over whether the charges of Obstructing an Act of Congress should stick. If they vote that down, obviously that would derail countless insurrection cases, perhaps including a good portion of Trump's.
Meanwhile, the current DC crisis is whether Speaker Mike can get anything through his caucus of block heads? He has bizarrely proposed to offer four separate bills to aid Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, and I believe the border. Absurd considering, if they get a vote (will pass), they'd likely be repackaged as one bill that goes to the Senate.
Yeah, I don't see how this helps Republicans. If they kept the bills together, there could be deniability for GOP House members that want to continue to be anti-Ukraine ("Look, we needed to get money to Israel and Taiwan and the cost was money to Ukraine. The good outweighed the bad" but also "I sent money to Ukraine and helped them" - they can play both sides). Now they have to be on record on one or the other. If there are pro-Ukraine independents, they could be swayed one way or the other by this.
On the other hand, if the Republicans think that they can use Israel as a wedge issue, they can force Democrats to side with either Israel or Palestine. I could see some benefit there, but I don't know.
I saw an interview with Johnson where he was saying all the right things about Ukraine. It sounds like maybe he has some sort of assurance that he can survive any move against him. If so...I guess that's good.
Look, I think it's tantamount to support Ukraine, regardless of the November outcome. Unrest is building in Georgia, and has been in Moldova. Putin is a thug. Israel vs. Iran hopefully shall tamp down again.
Here's where I see this thing....
There is a clear move to Biden among older, whiter folk, particularly in the Midwest. That was evident in the Haley vote, and these are people who vote all the time, and they are sick of Trump. They were turned off permanently by January 6th, and these are the voters who Biden has to hammer away at Trump's election cabal from 2020. A portion were two-time Trump voters, and losing anybody is a major problem for Orange.
Abortion access may or may not play a massive role in swing states, particularly Arizona now, but others to come. Younger woman are the most likely, but they're already backing Democrats big time anyway. What it will do is to fortify their resolve to get out and vote.
The youth vote? Particularly young men of color. They have clearly moved to Trump, possibly RFK Jr. Will they even vote? All hard to say. You also have the uber-left who have Palestine on the brain, now upset with Biden. Where do they go? Definitely not Trump. Could be a problem in Michigan, although the DNC has been very successful up there.
Lastly, there's the economy. Most indicators are very good for Joe. Inflation is a problem, no question, it's not going away. Cost of living is a disaster, causing widespread angst, but people are still spending like drunken sailors, so what does it really prove? I do think the casual, less-informed voter, is probably going to favor Trump to a degree on this. Will it matter? Like the youth vote, just really don't know how motivated these disgruntled are to vote? They don't seem to like either candidate, and most likely will not vote. Voting third party is a waste of time, and these are unmotivated people in the current climate.
As "Mr. Hopium" Rosenberg continues to stress, it's been a good month for Dems, bad for Trump.
Another poll came out that had Biden winning big if Trump is convicted. The polling was a bit misleading because it referred to it as a "serious crime", and I'm sure people won't consider the NY case a "serious crime" if they know the details. Some will and will disregard. Some won't know enough about it and will consider it serious because it's a criminal conviction. I assume he loses a ton of votes but not the +9 the poll indicated.
The Kennedy family did a huge event where they wholeheartedly endorsed Biden. I don't know if the media will cover that event, but if they do, it should mean more Biden-to-Kennedy voters go away. Again, there's almost no overlap between Biden and RFK other than the name, and if people are voting for RFK because he's a Kennedy (and nothing else), then this news (and I assume the next dozen times they work with the Kennedys) will dissuade some. The people that know who Kennedy is and are voting for him have got to be mostly far-right people dissatisfied that Trump isn't far right enough.
In the Trump trial, we have a jury. I'm nervous that something is going to happen to one of these jurors, especially as Fox News is actively trying to intimidate the jury. But the trial could start Monday morning so maybe it'll go quickly.
Trump's $175 million bond was confirmed by the judge after some changes, so he'll be able to appeal without "losing assets." That appeal likely will take quite some time, into next year I'm sure.
Hush money trial has begun. I think that Alvin Bragg will present a fairly strong case with evidence and compelling witnesses. The focus will be on accounting/business practices mainly. Whether Trump wins or loses, he will be stuck in court, pouting, for up to 6 weeks while Biden is basically all over the place campaigning.
Meanwhile, beginning at Columbia University and spreading to many schools nationwide, we have the pro-Hamas putrid protests, which I cannot expect will bode well for the DNC convention in Chicago this summer. Frankly, it's probably going to be an utter disaster.
It's tricky to protest what Israel is doing without some pro-Palestine stuff creeping in. Israel's offensive is so over the top they've made Hamas sympathetic, not an easy task.
Hush money trial has begun. I think that Alvin Bragg will present a fairly strong case with evidence and compelling witnesses. The focus will be on accounting/business practices mainly. Whether Trump wins or loses, he will be stuck in court, pouting, for up to 6 weeks while Biden is basically all over the place campaigning.
Two interesting things have come from this:
- The judge seemed really irritated with Trump's lawyers during the hearing on the gag order. I think the lawyers are going to struggle to toe that line between trying to do their job but also trying to keep Trump happy.
- I'm sorta convinced that Trump wants to go to jail to fight the gag order for the optics. It'll be interesting to see if the judge goes for it or not.
All that really matters for this is the electoral consequences so some scatterbrained thoughts:
- I don't know if politically unengaged undecideds are paying attention to this case. If they aren't, I think that could potentially be a win for Trump depending on how much people are not paying attention. If undecideds aren't paying enough attention to know the details but understand that the case is less serious, then they aren't getting any of the details of the case (the kind of thing Trump wanted to suppress in the first place) and a conviction won't matter and Trump wins. If people aren't paying attention and have no idea the seriousness of the case, I guess that benefits Biden because all they'll know is that Trump was convicted of a felony. So I guess if you're Biden, you have to hope that people are either paying a ton of attention or no attention at all.
- Trump looks whiny and tired and repetitive. I don't know how widespread the stories of him falling asleep (or worse) are, but that certainly doesn't help with Trump's image of being smart or strong or virile.
- It's obvious that this makes Trump miserable. And on a personal note, I just love that.
Well, he's taking lots of naps in court. I worry that'll refresh him too much.
Pennsylvania leaned heavily democratic in a special election yesterday and during the primary. Trump only got something like 60% of the vote there from Republicans. I'm not sure we can really pull anything from either of those stats, but I'm guessing the primary factor is that the shifting electorate makes likely voters much more likely to vote Democrat now. College educated whites have always been reliable voters, and now they're reliably voting democratic.
I'm not sure what to make of the Republican primary stuff. If you just look at the Republican primary numbers in a vacuum, there's a ton of protest votes against Trump. But I'm guessing those voters were either a) already baked into the Biden number or b) will come home to Trump at the end of the day. Hoping I'm wrong, though.
Pennsylvania is the one swing state that Biden has been doing the best in (although he recently was leading a Michigan poll as well). If the polls are right, Biden might need to hold the Rust Belt to win.
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538 did a good podcast the other day talking about some trends that appear good for Biden but may not matter:
1. The trials. The thought is that it won't do much to sway sentiment, especially this hush money case, unless something comes out that really blows people away. Even the idea that Trump isn't able to campaign right now may not matter six months from now. Polling shows a big swing to Biden if Trump is convicted of a "serious" crime but it's hard to tell whether voters find this case serious at all.
2. Abortion. Even though abortion is a terrible issue or Republicans, they seemed to think it might not have a big impact on the presidential election. People that are going to care the most about this issue are people who were going to vote anyway, and the rest of the people that care are probably voting anyway because it's a presidential election. Plus, people can be angry about Trump's stance on abortion, vote to protect abortion rights, and then still vote for Trump. They even downplayed Trump's recent shift towards a more pro-choice posture and said extreme anti-abortion people are still almost certainly going to vote for Trump even if he's against bans.
3. Campaign money. Biden is outpacing Trump on funds earned, funds spent (on the campaign at least), and campaign infrastructure in battleground states. But they argued that 1) these candidates are already really well known and money might not sway that many people 2) Trump gets a ton of free media coverage. I do think if Biden can significantly outspend Trump on advertising in battleground states, it can have an impact. Trump is obviously going to use money to pay his own bills first, and Biden won't have that issue. And Biden has way more feet on the ground to go out and convince people. They basically said it was the same thing in 2016 - Trump had a much worse campaign effort than Hillary and she outspent him 2-1, but Trump got so much free media coverage that it didn't matter in the end.
I guess we'll see.
I mean, Nikki getting 30% in PA despite bowing out months ago cannot be a "great" thing for Trump. That said, I saw some of the mail in results, and they were incredibly bad for Don, so one could assume that many people voted Haley, by mail, some time ago. I dunno.
As for those podcast points....
1. "Even the idea that Trump isn't able to campaign right now may not matter six months from now." I've said it before, being stuck in court for six weeks is crippling for a campaign. The loss of time is massive. If the US Supreme Court does not scuttle the DC trial, Trump will be sidelined up to THREE MONTHS during the summer, which will be a huge disaster for his campaign. Nikki Haley has to be cackling about this.
2. "People that are going to care the most about this issue are people who were going to vote anyway, and the rest of the people that care are probably voting anyway because it's a presidential election." This is entirely the POINT of how you win elections. You get the people most likely on your side, to physically DO IT. This is not something to brush aside. Enthusiasm is a major factor, and when the vote is very close, that is tantamount.
3. And Biden has way more feet on the ground to go out and convince people. They basically said it was the same thing in 2016 - Trump had a much worse campaign effort than Hillary and she outspent him 2-1, but Trump got so much free media coverage that it didn't matter in the end. First off, Hillary lost because she overspent in states she probably wasn't going to win, and ignored ones she was struggling in. Biden is expanding the campaign, on certain issues, but that will help down ticket Dems anyway. Having people working the campaign is really important. Take Florida, which Trump will likely win, but Biden is spending there. Trump's issue is that Desantis hates him, so he won't get much help from him, forcing his team to spend more than they normally would. Biden is basically trolling Trump down there.
I mean, Nikki getting 30% in PA despite bowing out months ago cannot be a "great" thing for Trump. That said, I saw some of the mail in results, and they were incredibly bad for Don, so one could assume that many people voted Haley, by mail, some time ago. I dunno.
Apparently, vote by mail info goes out 50 days before the election. Haley dropped out exactly 50 days before. So she would've been on the ballot (obviously), but she would've dropped out before people would've received their vote by mail. Maybe some could've immediately filled it out before they found out, but I assume a lot of people knew.
As for those podcast points....
1. "Even the idea that Trump isn't able to campaign right now may not matter six months from now." I've said it before, being stuck in court for six weeks is crippling for a campaign. The loss of time is massive. If the US Supreme Court does not scuttle the DC trial, Trump will be sidelined up to THREE MONTHS during the summer, which will be a huge disaster for his campaign. Nikki Haley has to be cackling about this.
Really hoping SCOTUS doesn't drag their feet with their decision. We should have the DC trial this summer.
2. "People that are going to care the most about this issue are people who were going to vote anyway, and the rest of the people that care are probably voting anyway because it's a presidential election." This is entirely the POINT of how you win elections. You get the people most likely on your side, to physically DO IT. This is not something to brush aside. Enthusiasm is a major factor, and when the vote is very close, that is tantamount.
I was thinking about it the other day, and I have a decent amount of enthusiasm to vote for Biden. He's done a good job, and he's the man standing between us and Trump. I assume that will rise as times goes on. I assume I'm not alone in that and people will get more excited to vote for Biden once they realize they have no other choice.
MAGA voters have nowhere to go but down in their enthusiasm. It's maxed out.
3. And Biden has way more feet on the ground to go out and convince people. They basically said it was the same thing in 2016 - Trump had a much worse campaign effort than Hillary and she outspent him 2-1, but Trump got so much free media coverage that it didn't matter in the end. First off, Hillary lost because she overspent in states she probably wasn't going to win, and ignored ones she was struggling in. Biden is expanding the campaign, on certain issues, but that will help down ticket Dems anyway. Having people working the campaign is really important. Take Florida, which Trump will likely win, but Biden is spending there. Trump's issue is that Desantis hates him, so he won't get much help from him, forcing his team to spend more than they normally would. Biden is basically trolling Trump down there.
I hope Trump is serious and spends money in New York and California and places like that. He's way behind in money so any money he spends outside of battleground states is a waste.
It sounds like the Biden campaign is doing things right. He can't only spend money in AZ, NV, GA, MI, WI, and PA, but I'd like to see that be the focus. Travel there, speak there. Send Obama and other popular surrogates. I think NC is a possibility. FL seems like a lost cause, but I can see making Trump waste money there (same in Texas...really hoping we can get Allred to beat Cruz). They might be able to make a run at OH, but that also seems out of reach.
Biden also has to defend some light blue states like New Mexico, New Hampshire, and Virginia. But the rest of the map seems pretty secure. Focus on where they need to focus, and again they only need to win half the tossup states (assuming it's the right half)
People are wondering why Trump can't command crowds to New York City.
https://www.salon.com/2024/04/24/keeps- … ing-up-to/
Immunity is being argued in front of SCOTUS today. In past *huge* cases, SCOTUS has decided really quickly (Pentagon Papers, Watergate Tapes, Bush v Gore).
I assume they'll wait until the last possible minute. Either July or after. And that will be a decision, not a requirement.
Update: there's almost no way they decide on this before the election. Sounds like it's more likely they kick the whole thing back to the Appeals Court and then start the whole process over.
DC and Florida cases are going to be delayed until after the election. Biden needs to win in November.
Ruminations on the potential outcomes:
https://www.salon.com/2024/04/25/trump- … n-6-trial/
A conversation with my father:
DAD: "How do you think the election will go?"
IB: "It'll probably be fine."
DAD: "Son! That's what you said about Season 4 of SLIDERS!"
IB: "Oh God."
DAD: "What is SLIDERS anyway? You told me to say that to you every time you say that something will probably be fine."
IB: "Don't ask."
On the public health front:
I am mostly wearing masks in indoor public spaces these days (like grocery stores). Outdoor masking seems unnecessary. I am mostly buying my masks from a Korean website called Gmarket which sells Korean products: https://global.gmarket.co.kr/Home/Main
They sell sporting goods, electronics, personal grooming products, etc., but for me, the main interest is masks because Korean-made consumer-grade masks tend to have affordable price points, feature earloops over headbands, and the Korean government has strict standards to acquire a KF94 certification before export. Most KF94 masks filter 98 percent or more and exceed the 94 percent standard.
In contrast, the KN95 label can be applied to any product without oversight; I could sell Kleenex with some string as a KN95 mask.
The site is a bit convoluted. Not every product has an English language listing. Sometimes, the same mask will be sold as one mask in one packet but also 25 masks in one package or 100 masks split across four packages of 25-masks each. After doing a search for, say, "KF94 masks 100 pcs", you then have to select "International shipping" to filter out masks that will only ship within Korea (unless you live in Korea). I've bookmarked the search terms and filters for myself:
http://gsearch.gmarket.co.kr/Listview/S … =undefined
The listed price of a mask isn't actually helpful because you only get the exported-from-Korea shipping costs after you log in with your account (and its location setting) and add the product to your cart. At that point, you'll see the product price and the shipping price. Also, you have to log into the site every time; the cookies on that site expire fast and don't retain an active login.
However, despite all that, the site insists on PayPal (which creates some security distance for your payment method from the site itself) and a recent order of 200 KF94 masks and shipping and import fees amounted to about $62 USD or 31 cents a mask. And pleasingly, after placing the order, the masks showed up at my door eight business days later.
A few years ago, I was pretty active on Twitter and followed election coverage pretty closely. I even waded into waters where I tried to calmly convince MAGA of the error of their ways. Eventually, I didn't like the person I was. I was doom-scrolling through twitter all the time, and I was feeling myself growing more and more annoyed.
So I quit. I was doing it because I was bored, and there are a billion apps that I could use to stop myself from being bored.
About a year ago, I got curious about some things and waded back into those waters. I had deleted the app but I could still access the website through Safari on my phone. There were a couple of people I liked to follow for news on the Trump indictments or whatever and that was that. Eventually, Elon closed that loophole and made you register to access the website. So I was closed off. Then, more recently, I decided I was curious enough and I created a second account (I didn't remember the login and thought this was more reasonable) and accessed the website (again, not downloading the app) to get my news. I went from checking it only in the evenings to checking it all the time. And, again, I could feel my blood pressure going up every time I visited.
The Trump immunity Supreme Court was the last straw. I was upset all day. So I decided to quit again. I logged out of my dummy account and deleted all my shortcuts. I haven't been back since.
Me doomscrolling through twitter isn't going to stop Trump from getting elected or make him go to jail, and at least now, I'm not forcing myself to constantly think about it. The unfortunate thing for everyone else is that now I'll be much less informed. The fortunate thing for me is that I'll be much happier.
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