Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Unbelievable violent imagery from the EX-President:


https://x.com/patriottakes/status/17738 … 35916?s=20


https://i.postimg.cc/gJwXzXyf/Screenshot-at-Apr-02-03-17-18.png


https://x.com/ruthbenghiat/status/17738 … 71704?s=20


https://i.postimg.cc/HWycFMkM/Screenshot-at-Apr-02-03-17-48.png


https://x.com/ruthbenghiat/status/17744 … 71626?s=20


https://i.postimg.cc/JnB0VwM8/Screenshot-at-Apr-02-03-18-36.png

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Here's the thing.  I think Trump is a wannabe dictator.  I think he is extremely dangerous, and I think he's willing to use his followers to go after people that threaten him.  Instead of using the police or the military, I think Trump wants to use his loyal followers to do his dirty work because (and he's been right so far), he has deniability in his actions.  If he ordered the military to attack the Capitol, then he's crossed the Rubicon.  If he nudges his followers in a certain direction, he can defend himself.

I think the pick-up truck is obviously in extremely poor taste.  I think it's extremely inappropriate for a presidential candidate to send that image out to the masses.  But when you compare it to what Kathy Griffin did with the beheaded Trump, I think it's pretty bland.  I think Trump is pretty evil, but I assume he didn't "tweet" it to his followers because he wants Biden dead or wants them to go after him.  I think he thought it was funny and that's it.  He's a child.

If they want to investigate the owner of the truck, that's fine.  But since the imagery isn't nearly as violent as what Griffin did and since I don't think Trump was legitimately threatening Biden, I think this is something that we (meaning those that are anti-Trump) should drop.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Slider_Quinn21 wrote:

Here's the thing.  I think Trump is a wannabe dictator.  I think he is extremely dangerous, and I think he's willing to use his followers to go after people that threaten him.  Instead of using the police or the military, I think Trump wants to use his loyal followers to do his dirty work because (and he's been right so far), he has deniability in his actions.  If he ordered the military to attack the Capitol, then he's crossed the Rubicon.  If he nudges his followers in a certain direction, he can defend himself.

I think the pick-up truck is obviously in extremely poor taste.  I think it's extremely inappropriate for a presidential candidate to send that image out to the masses.  But when you compare it to what Kathy Griffin did with the beheaded Trump, I think it's pretty bland.  I think Trump is pretty evil, but I assume he didn't "tweet" it to his followers because he wants Biden dead or wants them to go after him.  I think he thought it was funny and that's it.  He's a child.

If they want to investigate the owner of the truck, that's fine.  But since the imagery isn't nearly as violent as what Griffin did and since I don't think Trump was legitimately threatening Biden, I think this is something that we (meaning those that are anti-Trump) should drop.

Kathy Griffin is a heroine. LOL. And she's all right in my book. She only did it to an inanimate object, for cryin' out loud.

Trump (Hitler) did it to a real photo of the President. Big difference.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

And few if any will change their minds.  If you have any sort of acceptance of Trump being the psychopath he is, but that his "policies" somehow helped you, there will be no changing of minds.  I think the greater risk is that people will simply not vote against Trump.  They will stay home, or will vote for a bigger nutcase like Kennedy.  Biden is not getting those voters.  They think he's too old, and blame him for inflation and crimes of migrants.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Former Trump officials are among the most vocal opponents of returning him to the White House

https://apnews.com/article/former-trump … ce=Twitter

NEW YORK (AP) — Former Defense Secretary Mark Esper has called him a “threat to democracy.” Former national security adviser John Bolton has declared him “unfit to be president.” And former Vice President Mike Pence has declined to endorse him, citing “profound differences.”

As Donald Trump seeks the presidency for a third time, he is being vigorously opposed by a vocal contingent of former officials who are stridently warning against his return to power and offering dire predictions for the country and the rule of law if his campaign succeeds.

It’s a striking chorus of detractors, one without precedent in the modern era, coming from those who witnessed first-hand his conduct in office and the turmoil that followed.

Sarah Matthews, a former Trump aide who testified before the House Jan. 6 committee and is among those warning about the threat he poses, said it’s “mind-boggling” how many members of his senior staff have denounced him.

“These are folks who saw him up close and personal and saw his leadership style,” Matthews said.

“The American people should listen to what these folks are saying because it should be alarming that the people that Trump hired to work for him a first term are saying that he’s unfit to serve for a second term.”

Yet the critics remain a distinct minority. Republican lawmakers and officials across the party have endorsed Trump’s bid — some begrudgingly, others with fervor and enthusiasm. Many aides and Cabinet officials who served under Trump are onboard for another term, something Trump’s campaign is quick to highlight.

“The majority of the people who served in President Trump’s cabinet and in his administration, like the majority of Americans, have overwhelmingly endorsed his candidacy to beat Crooked Joe Biden and take back the White House,” said Trump campaign spokesman Steven Cheung.

Still, the Biden campaign has trumpeted the criticism of former Trump officials in statements and social media posts, hoping to convince at least some Republican voters — including those who backed other candidates during the GOP primary — that they cannot support his candidacy.

“Those who worked with Donald Trump at the most senior levels of his administration believe he is too dangerous, too selfish and too extreme to ever lead our country again — we agree,” said Biden campaign spokesman Ammar Moussa.

In many ways, the schism among former Trump officials is an extension of his time in the White House. Friction was constant as Trump’s demands ran into resistance from some officials and aides who refused requests that they found misguided, unrealistic and, at times, flatly illegal. Firings were frequent. Many quit.

Staff upheaval was particularly intense in the chaotic weeks after the 2020 election as Trump worked to overturn his election loss to Biden. Trump summoned supporters to Washington on Jan. 6, 2021, as his falsehoods about a stolen election became the rallying cry for supporters who violently breached the U.S. Capitol. Many people serving in the administration quit in protest, including Matthews.

Trump’s attempt to remain in office included a bitter pressure campaign against Pence, who as vice president was tasked with presiding over the count of the Electoral College ballots on Jan. 6. Trump was adamant that Pence should prevent Biden from becoming president, something he had no power to do. Pence had to flee the Senate chamber on Jan. 6 as rioters stormed the building to chants of “Hang Mike Pence!”

Pence recently said he “cannot in good conscience” endorse Trump because of Jan. 6 and other issues, despite being proud of what they achieved together.

And Pence is not alone.

Esper, who was fired by Trump days after the 2020 election, clashed with the then-president over several issues, including Trump’s push to deploy military troops to respond to civil unrest after the killing of George Floyd by police in 2020.

In a recent interview with HBO’s “Real Time With Bill Maher,” Esper repeated a warning that Trump is “a threat to democracy” and added, “I think there’s a lot to be concerned about.”

“There’s no way I’ll vote for Trump, but every day that Trump does something crazy, the door to voting for Biden opens a little bit more, and that’s where I’m at,” Esper said.

Among Trump’s most vocal critics are former aides who worked closely with him in the White House, particularly a trio who gained prominence testifying about the Jan. 6 attack and Trump’s push to overturn the election.

The group includes Matthews, former Trump White House communications director Alyssa Farah Griffin and Cassidy Hutchinson, a former top aide to Trump chief of staff Mark Meadows. They have given a series of interviews in recent months opposing their former boss.

“Fundamentally, a second Trump term could mean the end of American democracy as we know it, and I don’t say that lightly,” Griffin told ABC in December.

John Kelly, Trump’s former chief of staff, had his own long falling-out with Trump. Kelly, in a lengthy October statement to CNN, described Trump as “a person who admires autocrats and murderous dictators” and “has nothing but contempt for our democratic institutions, our Constitution, and the rule of law.”

Olivia Troye, a former Pence adviser who left the White House in 2020, and former press secretary Stephanie Grisham, who resigned Jan. 6, are both outspoken critics who said they didn’t vote for Trump in 2020.

Even Bill Barr, Trump’s former attorney general who has not ruled out voting for him again, has referred to Trump as “a consummate narcissist” who “constantly engages in reckless conduct that puts his political followers at risk and the conservative and Republican agenda at risk.”

Still, the ranks of former Trump officials opposing his bid are greatly outnumbered by those who are supportive.

Linda McMahon, who headed the Small Business Administration under Trump, is co-chairing a major fundraiser for the former president on Saturday in Florida, along with former Trump Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross.

McMahon is also chair of the board of The America First Policy Institute, which is packed with supportive former Trump officials and has been described as an “administration in waiting” for a second Trump term.

The institute is headed by Brooke Rollins, Trump’s former domestic policy chief, and counts Pence’s national security adviser and retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg among its chairs, along with former Energy Secretary Rick Perry, Trump’s U.S. trade representative Robert Lighthizer, and former National Economic Council director Larry Kudlow.

Former acting Attorney General Matthew Whitaker has campaigned for Trump, as has former Housing Secretary Ben Carson, who called him “a friend of America.”

Trump’s also got the backing of former acting Director of National Intelligence Richard Grenell, former Interior Secretary and Montana Rep. Ryan Zinke, and Russell Vought, who ran Trump’s Office of Management and Budget.

Vought said in a post on X that Trump is “the only person I trust to take a wrecking ball to the Deep State.”

Trump supporters are also quick to dismiss critics in the party.

Carmen McVane, who attended Trump’s rally Tuesday in Green Bay, Wisconsin, said those who speak negatively against Trump or refuse to endorse are RINOs, or Republicans In Name Only, and will only help Biden and Democrats.

“There’s a lot of RINOs who don’t do what they’re supposed to do,” McVane said. “It’s time for everyone to back who we have and go full force ahead.”

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

This is what Biden needs to create *tons* of ads on.  They need to be properly targeted, but non-MAGA Republicans that liked the first Trump administration need to know that the second one is not going to be like the first.

Again, the tactic needs to be to very clearly articulate that Trump is not a normal Republican or politician.  He's a f*%#ing psychopath out for revenge.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

RFK Jr. campaign director literally admitting they are running to allow Trump to win.

https://twitter.com/IsaacDovere/status/ … 5685517814

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Polls are slowly (but surely) shifting toward Biden.  And I saw a couple polls where RFK is siphoning votes off Trump more than Biden.  Which makes sense as RFK continues to look more and more MAGA.  I imagine the only people that would vote for Biden but choose RFK are doing so because they're critically misinformed or uneducated on the matter.  RFK is to the right of Trump so it would take a really special voter to abandon Biden for him.  The RFK voters I see online are DeSantis refugees who agree with him on the anti-vaxx stuff.  I don't know what RFK's views on abortion are, but if they're conservative, then Trump's abortion message could push more Trump voters to him.

I don't think there's any way RFK gets the 11% he's polling at, but I figure more Biden voters will come home than Trump ones.  I still think this is a miscalculation on Trump's part.

Trump has a tiny lead on the RCP average and Biden is winning on the Economist average.  Obviously, Biden needs to win the national polls by a few points to win the electoral college, but those polls are also shifting.  Pennsylvania has been looking pretty good, and Wisconsin and Georgia are trending toward him.  Michigan looks bad right now, and Nevada might not be possible.  But if the trends continue, I think things will be fine.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Good summary of where we're at right now.

https://x.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1777797620674560199


https://i.postimg.cc/TYdfBh8W/Screenshot-at-Apr-10-02-52-09.png

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

LOL, I follow Ron also.  It's nonsensical to blame President's for gas prices, and in most cases, inflation, given there's not a ton an administration can do about that.  However, the messaging from Biden is flat out terrible.  He needs to stop boasting about the economy as if it's absolutely supreme.  For many people, it's not.  Even if they're doing well, there is tremendous anxiety and anger over the ridiculous way in which you're being ripped off for every day expenses.  He has to be more empathetic. 

I saw something this morning about Biden will now openly question whether he has the authority to "close the border" with executive actions.  Trump tried many of these, they were usually shot down in court, but it took time.  Biden should have been issuing these orders 6 months ago.  Even if they are eventually stopped, who cares, at least you can say you tried SOMETHING! 

To me, the reason Biden approval is this bad is inaction.  He seems to just let issues fester and fester, allows the media to drive the entire narrative, gets beat up, and still does nothing.  Frankly the border inaction is just stunning at this point.  And while he has no control over Netanyahu, he looks completely sidelined.  To think, a US President has zero control?  Why are you still sending military aid without strings?  What is your leverage then?  Ukraine is another one, where there's been zero action on aid.  Yes, the GOP is holding it up, but the net result is a big negative for Biden, because he's let completely neutered.

Biden is never going to reclaim an advantage with the economy or immigration, he's sunk by close to double digits on those, and it's largely his own inaction, or worse messaging, to blame.  If abortion or threats to democracy creep up the latter in importance, he will do better.  It's really about what are the crucial issues in the months leading up to voting.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

My friend is a bit of an expert on evangelicals, and he wonders if the Trump messaging on abortion is going to drive some of them away.  To them, any surrender on abortion is unacceptable.  They didn't even like that he used the term "abortion rights" at all.  I don't buy it...maybe some of them will leave the top of the ballot blank, but I assume it won't actually matter.

The polling is becoming more encouraging.  A poll came out today that had Biden only down 2 in North Carolina.  There might be an opportunity to flip a state like that that's been trending blue.  If Trump does something stupid like try to flip New York, it could leave an opening in some places.  Ironically, Trump could try some of the stuff Hillary tried, and it could leave Biden an opportunity.

It's important to remember that, while the electoral college helps Republicans, Biden just needs to play a little bit of defense.  He doesn't have to win all the states he won in 2020 - he just needs to win half of the six toss up states.  If he can win Pennsylvania, he just needs to win Michigan and Wisconsin or Arizona and Georgia or Georgia and Wisconsin or Michigan and Arizona.  Lots of roads to win.  Trump doesn't need to sweep all those states but he needs a lot of them.  If Biden can do something surprising and win North Carolina, it gets even easier.  Trump would essentially need to run the table of the rest of the states.

I feel better than I did a few weeks ago.  And that's before you take into account any of the abortion measures (which makes Arizona more likely and even puts something like Florida in play) and left-leaning polling errors.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Slider_Quinn21 wrote:

My friend is a bit of an expert on evangelicals, and he wonders if the Trump messaging on abortion is going to drive some of them away.  To them, any surrender on abortion is unacceptable.  They didn't even like that he used the term "abortion rights" at all.  I don't buy it...maybe some of them will leave the top of the ballot blank, but I assume it won't actually matter.

Simply, NO.  Nothing will dissuade them.  One thing to keep in mind is this, the idea that "Evangelical" voters are in love with Trump is a misnomer.  They are Republicans mainly, so they vote that ticket.  They don't particularly care for them.  Furthermore, just because a block is ID'd as evangelical, doesn't indicate how "devout" one might be.  You could ID me as Catholic, but I don't practice at all. 

Slider_Quinn21 wrote:

I feel better than I did a few weeks ago.  And that's before you take into account any of the abortion measures (which makes Arizona more likely and even puts something like Florida in play) and left-leaning polling errors.

Food inflation continues to be an outright disaster, and that is driving blue collar voters away.  Arizona is back in play after that ridiculous abortion situation.  Trump is trying to have it both ways, he can't.  He boasted about Roe vs. Wade being stopped, and this is the result.  "Leave it to the states" is the most putrid cop out there's been, with regards to rights being abandoned.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Grizzlor wrote:

[Simply, NO.  Nothing will dissuade them.  One thing to keep in mind is this, the idea that "Evangelical" voters are in love with Trump is a misnomer.  They are Republicans mainly, so they vote that ticket.  They don't particularly care for them.  Furthermore, just because a block is ID'd as evangelical, doesn't indicate how "devout" one might be.  You could ID me as Catholic, but I don't practice at all.

I mean I told him that I think evangelicals are extremely radicalized - that if Trump told them to worship him instead of Jesus, they'd happily toss their bibles and crosses in exchange for a golden Trump statue.  But he disagrees.  He goes to an evangelical church (he's liberal) and he has a PhD in religious studies (or something like that).  He says that abortion is the one area they won't follow him down.

This is well known right wing "entertainer?" Matt Walsh.  He's extreme right wing, and he hated what Trump and Kari Lake had to say.  He has 2.2MM followers on twitter, and he's very outspoken that this was the wrong thing to do and he's not willing to budge.  It wouldn't take many people to decide they can't vote for someone that supports any "abortion rights" and either not vote or leave the top of the ballot empty.  And remember these aren't normal Republican voters.  The voters that Trump has added are low-propensity voters so it wouldn't take much for them to just not go on election day (because they won't mail in vote or vote early).

https://www.facebook.com/MattWalshBlog/ … 646268783/

Now the thing about Trump is that he's never been pro-life.  This was the issue with him in 2016 in the Republican primaries.  And it was the issue when he was up against DeSantis.  It didn't matter this year because the abortion folks went all in on Trump.  But as much as Trump brags about defeating Roe, I cannot imagine Trump actually cared about that.  He didn't pick those judges, and he probably has no idea what they stand for.  He did what the Federalist Society told him to do or he did whatever they paid him to do.

Trump doesn't want to ban abortion.  Otherwise he'd have 50 kids, and he hates the ones he already has.