• Registered: 2015-06-22
  • Posts: 3,287

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

So I've come across a few people in the wild and a lot of people through actual journalism (I'm still off social media) that are either switching from Biden to Trump or just voting for Trump.  None of these people are MAGA as far as I'm aware.

The reasoning seems to be mostly economics.  They feel that prices are too high under Biden, and that specifically translates to the economy is bad.  None of the other metrics of the economy seem to matter, and the fact that Biden seems to keep saying that the economy is great seems to bother them even more.  To me, I think Biden needs to do a few things to reach these people.  I don't know if Biden wants to do any of these, and I don't know that him doing these things would help.

1. Biden needs to acknowledge that, while a lot of the metrics of the economy are great, a lot of people are still struggling.  When people are struggling and Biden and the media keep talking about how great the economy is, he's losing touch with these voters.  I think he needs to admit that the economy still needs to get better.

2. Biden needs to get across two messages.  First, that he's doing everything he can to improve inflation.  And second that there's not a ton of things the president can do to fix inflation.  I think people need to understand that, just because Trump gets re-elected, doesn't mean that Trump can just press the "make inflation go down" button and that's it.  I think there's clearly a disconnect on the economy, and I think he needs economic experts to make it clear that the winner of this election won't be able to fix inflation overnight.

3. Biden needs to make it very clear that he's not interested in raising the taxes of the middle class.  Trump keeps talking about renewing the Trump tax cuts, and Biden keeps talking about how he's not going to renew them.  From my understanding, he's going to raise the taxes of the uber-wealthy and corporations to pre-Trump levels.  But that most people won't be affected.  I don't know if that's true, but if it's true, that's what he needs to talk about.  If he is planning on raising the taxes of the middle class, he probably shouldn't do that.

4. There's gotta be something he can do about prices.  Maybe there's some sort of tax benefit for manufacturers that can decrease prices (or tax penalties for companies that are shown to be artificially increasing prices).  I don't know.  Maybe none of that is legal.  But I think it would be helpful to see Biden doing something.  There are legitimately people who think Biden is actively trying to make prices higher, and he needs to dispel that.

5. I think he needs to be very vocal about his economic plan in these debates, and he needs to try and nail down whatever "plan" Trump has.  One of the ways I think Biden can gain support is if he can show people that Trump doesn't have any idea what he's doing with the economy.  When he left office, his approval rating was in the 30s on the economy.  Now it's double that.  People need to be reminded of why they felt that way four years ago.


*******

I really, really want to believe the polls are wrong or at least slanted enough to impact the results.  I'm not there yet.  I'm still going to keep actively supporting the president and sending him money when I can.  I will not be discouraged enough by the polls, but I can't just hope the polls are wrong.  I'd love to see Biden take a lead, especially in the swing states, before I feel better.

  • Registered: 2015-06-21
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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Slider_Quinn21 wrote:

I really, really want to believe the polls are wrong or at least slanted enough to impact the results.  I'm not there yet.  I'm still going to keep actively supporting the president and sending him money when I can.  I will not be discouraged enough by the polls, but I can't just hope the polls are wrong.  I'd love to see Biden take a lead, especially in the swing states, before I feel better.

Well. Resuming our tradition of Quinn writing campaign messages:

A message from Quinn Mallory to Slider_Quinn21:

Look, I get it. You're rattled by the polls showing the Republicans ahead. It's like watching a trainwreck in slow motion with Donald Trump at the end of the line. But let me tell it to you straight: these poll averages are as skewed as the NBA playoffs in 2002.

The Republicans are churning out dime-a-dozen surveys that tip the scales, mixing them with the legitimate ones to cook the averages. It's misdirection: flood the algorithm with weighted numbers to make Trump look inevitable.

But if you take a closer look, the independent numbers tell a different story. The real picture is buried under a pile of biased junk data.

You're hoping the Democrat surge will pop up in the collective polls. But that's like waiting for a bus that's been rerouted. That bus isn't coming. The truth isn't going down that street any more. If you want truth, you'll have to take a more circuitous route than you did before -- and towards the unbiased, unaffiliated polls.

I get that it's a hassle. It's easier to let someone else do the work. To take the neatly packaged average. But that's how you get played. The truth? That comes from legwork.

A lot of people have called me a genius. You've called me that. I'm going to let you in on a secret. I've never told this to anyone because nobody ever asked me to explain:

I'm not a genius. Anyone can think the way I do.

Every 'genius' I've ever met was just someone willing to do the work. Someone who would throw themselves into tasks that other people find too tedious and boring.

The world isn't actually divided between the brilliant and the mundane. Smart people are just the ones who are willing to grind through the data, chip away at the mistakes and the lies, and dig their way to the truth.

And I'll warn you now, friend. The truth isn't always in our favor. The truth isn't always going to be what we want to hear.

But the polling averages right now aren't truth. They're a boast. They are a brag to scare you and intimidate you, to tell you that what you're afraid of is what's coming true.

The truth is simply where things stand. The truth will shift because tomorrow's another day. The truth is where we are right now.

The truth is that neither party has a clear path to 270 electoral votes yet. It's 270 to win and neither side is there. Which means the race is a dead heat.

But even this far from Election Day, we can see that Donald Trump's campaign machine is glitchier than the Egyptian timer on its worst day while Joe Biden's campaign has the focus and drive of the Professor's mayoral campaign... which I remember that he lost, but my point still stands: as of this moment, no one's in the lead.

I'm a mathematician. I convert situations to numerical data and weigh probabilities and possibilities. As of today, the mathematician in me can't tell you who's winning or losing.

But I'd rather be on your side than theirs.

I cannot stress enough that this is a work of fiction and not written by AI; Quinn Mallory's political views as presented by me are so far outside canon that to call them fan fiction is giving them too much weight; the views of ireactions are not the views of Sliders.TV, and if I am wrong on this one, then I owe Slider_Quinn21 an Alamo movie house gift certificate.

Also, in 2016, Quinn told Slider_Quinn21 to vote for Joe the Tiger Guy and Slider_Quinn21 has said he will always regret it.

  • Registered: 2015-06-22
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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Thank you, Quinn!  As I was so many years ago, I am inspired by you and will continue to believe in you!

  • Registered: 2015-06-21
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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Please employ critical thinking and remember that Quinn is a fictional character and he has made a lot of bad choices like the time he beat a classmate with a baseball bat or when he walked into a vortex instead of building a drone with a digital video recorder that didn't depend on magnetized tape.

**

Gain-of-function is a point of criticism again of Dr. Fauci. Fauci had previously denied that the US or his agency supported or funded experiments in altering viruses to make them more infectious and contagious and resilient (to test how to fight them), or that he had contributed to such research in China, or that such research could have led to a lab leak that could have created COVID-19.

But last month, National Institutes of Health Principal Deputy Director Lawrence Tabak confirmed that he and Fauci had worked on and led and contributed to gain-of-function research in China. However, Tabak noted that gain-of-function isn't a universally defined term and said the experiments discussed couldn't have led to COVID-19.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/06/0 … l-00161109

Fauci is to face the House of Representatives committee on Monday for questioning.

I will note that, as QuinSlidr explained: the research in question involved creating three artificial, lab-generated viruses and experimenting with how capable they would be of replicating in human cells; the human cells were placed in lab mice.

The argument at the time, as I understood it (but please be informed I am shaky on this) is that this research involved creating artificial and non-harmful viruses, not existing and/or dangerous viruses, and therefore didn't qualify as gain-of-function research, which generally refers to making natural viruses more powerful -- but not every scientist will consider gain-of-function a term exclusively applied to non-artificial viruses.

  • Registered: 2015-06-21
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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

According to the AP News on Dr. Fauci's House appearance:

The definition of “gain of function” covers both general research and especially risky experiments to “enhance” the ability of potentially pandemic pathogens to spread or cause severe disease in humans. Fauci stressed he was using the risky experiment definition, saying “it would be molecularly impossible” for the bat viruses studied with EcoHealth’s funds to be turned into the virus that caused the pandemic.
https://apnews.com/article/fauci-covid- … 5484790230

  • Registered: 2015-06-22
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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

It's so frustrating to see a decorated medical professional harassed by a PTA reject who barely seems to have any education at all.

  • Registered: 2015-06-21
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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

This isn't related to Fauci, but Slider_Quinn21's post made me want to share one of my frustrations with medical amateurism: it is deeply disappointing when an irresponsible medical amateurist displays tunnel vision and selective focus.

This is when someone will give medical opinions based on the specific areas they (think they) understand while dismissing or flat-out ignoring the areas of science and medicine that they don't understand even if they're extremely relevant.

For example, one irresponsible medical amateurist will claim that masks don't protect from viruses and bacteria by pointing to studies where people self-reported whether or not they wore masks and whether or not they got sick, and point out that people who wore masks seemed to get as sick as people who didn't.

This irresponsible amateurist will refer repeatedly to these mask studies as recognized science, ignoring the fact that self-reporting is riddled with error; that these studies used a range of masks and some lacked electrostatic filtering or seals. They selectively focus on behavioural science and social science studies.

This irresponsible amateurist will never have any response when questioned on mask-filtration areas of science: electrostatics and the means by which electrostatically charged material attracts and traps particles because this amateurist doesn't understand of static electricity, stationary electric charge, or non-quantum particle models.

However, they do understand behavioural and social science, so they focus on that and they they this particular area of scientific study in self-reported behavioural data should overrule the fundamental physical principles governing electrostatics and particle physics. They just don't understand physics, so they decide it shouldn't be taken into consideration.

Electrostatically charged materials and their ability to filter particles are basic principles of particle physics. They are unaffected by how people wear masks or report it. It takes a special combination or arrogance and ignorance for anyone to claim that a shaky study of human behaviour should overrule the laws of physics.

Now, because health is a universal concern, we don't have the luxury of only discussing it if we have a medical degree. But there are ways to practice medical amateurism responsibly. The responsible amateurist needs to fact check their positions for tunnel vision, outdated information, and misapplied knowledge, and correct their positions before disseminating them.

The responsible amateurist is highly aware that because they don't practice medicine and don't maintain and update and apply their medical knowledge regularly, everything they think they know about medicine is likely incomplete, misremembered, or flat-out wrong, and take a critical eye to their own positions before sharing them. In this day and age, there is no excuse for anyone not to check their medical opinions before presenting them.

  • Registered: 2015-06-22
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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

ireactions wrote:

-In this day and age, there is no excuse for anyone not to check their medical opinions before presenting them.

I think the problem with this is that there's an expert willing to sign off on any opinion these days.  There are doctors who are willing to advocate for anti-vax concerns.  There are doctors willing to speak out against masks, against social distancing, against basically anything.  I'm sure there's a "medical expert" with a YouTube channel advocating for smoking.

And those are all credentialed people.  That doesn't even include the "experts" who are lying about their credentials.

I always sort of laugh when ignorant people say to "do their own research" but it's a Rashomon situation sometimes.  Depending on which path you take, you could come to two different concerns.  Both which could be backed up by evidence that seems to point to the conclusion you're looking for.

Documentaries usually seem pretty definitive, and I think we've been conditioned to believe them.  But there are documentaries that "prove" that 9/11 was in inside job.  There are documentaries that "prove" that the 2020 election was stolen.  Backed by video and expert testimony.

Fact checking is a useful tool, but people don't trust fact checks if they disagree with their desired result.  Twitter does community notes when people outright lie, but people just ignore them if they love the lie.

I don't think people are intentionally ignorant or dumb.  Back in the day, there were plenty of people like that.  But there was less information, and the information they received was properly filtered.  Now, any idiot can be on YouTube or Reddit or whatever and can spread their misinformation to millions.  They can be a true expert with a slanted agenda, or they can just lie and say they're an expert.  By the time you've found out which is which, your opinion could be slanted.

I don't have a solution for this.

2,649 Reply by pilight

  • From: Where the action is
  • Registered: 2015-11-16
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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

What's right or wrong for most people, if such a thing can be determined, may not be for you.  Don't take medical advice from an online doctor, a TV doctor, or any doctor that hasn't examined you.  Find a local doctor you trust, get looked at, and ask them about concerns you have.

  • Registered: 2015-06-21
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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

pilight wrote:

What's right or wrong for most people, if such a thing can be determined, may not be for you.  Don't take medical advice from an online doctor, a TV doctor, or any doctor that hasn't examined you.  Find a local doctor you trust, get looked at, and ask them about concerns you have.

Agreed.

Slider_Quinn21 wrote:

I think the problem with this is that there's an expert willing to sign off on any opinion these days.  There are doctors who are willing to advocate for anti-vax concerns.  There are doctors willing to speak out against masks, against social distancing, against basically anything.  I'm sure there's a "medical expert" with a YouTube channel advocating for smoking.

Now, any idiot can be on YouTube or Reddit or whatever and can spread their misinformation to millions.  They can be a true expert with a slanted agenda, or they can just lie and say they're an expert.  By the time you've found out which is which, your opinion could be slanted.

I would say it's important to exercise humility and critical thinking, and to differentiate subjective opinion from verifiable facts, fundamentals and principles.

In terms of sources: yes, anyone can say anything on YouTube or social media or post anything online. Therefore, we need to distinguish claims and assertions from knowledge. We need to recognize what's theory, what's fact, and when someone is presenting theory as fact.

When you're reviewing claims and assertions, are they presented with sources? Do the claims distinguish from sourced information and interpretative application of that information? Can we verify the sources are ones that offer actual medical and scientific research?

Are the claims operating within the basic principles of the fields in which they're engaged?

In terms of masking: electrostatics goes back to 8 BC and remains a fundamental area of science for extremely commonplace applications like air conditioning (filtration) and printers (photoconducting drums for positively charged image printing).

In this field, I have actually been impressed with YouTuber Aaron Collins, a mechanical engineer who uses an aerosol generator (that pumps sodium chloride particles into the air) and a particle counter with a probe that can be tightly punched through a mask. This allows Collins to measure the amount of particles outside the mask and the amount inside the mask, and report on the filtration.

This isn't just someone making claims; this is someone filming his test process and presenting results that make sense within the study of electrostatics. Collins also specifies that mask efficacy depends on a decent seal, and what seals well for him may not seal for others. These are assertions with evidence.

Someone may say electrostatic masks don't work and cite studies that consist of self-reported data. We might ask: do these claims exist within the realm of physical reality? They are saying that the laws of physics and the fundamentals of electrostatics cease to apply within a half-inch of the mouth and nose.

Does that sound plausible? Or does it sound like someone conflating theory with knowledge and tunnel vision with expertise, prioritizing social sciences over physics?

The responsible amateurist differentiates theory from evidence, and identifies or specifies what is an assertion and what is verified fact. The responsible amateurist accepts mask studies of self-reported data, but categorizes them as a study of human behaviour, not particle physics, reconciling both to observe: there are issues with human usage of masks, but behavioural studies don't overrule basic fundamentals of electrostatic attraction and repulsion.

If I tell you that oxybenzone, homosalate and octocrylene are potentially unsafe chemicals in sunscreen and that only titanium and zinc are known to be safe, you can Google those chemicals. You'll find this corroborated by the websites for the National Library of Medicine, the American Medical Association, the US Food and Drug Assocation, the National Institutes of Health, and the European Commission's Public Health branch.

You'll also see that there is nuance to be had: homosalate, avobenzone and oxybenzone are not proven to harm humans, but they absorb through skin, are detected in bodily fluids weeks after application, and have been found to be harmful in animal studies. While their effect on humans is not fully researched, animal study data is concerning, which is why titanium and zinc lotions, not deeply penetrating skin, are preferred by some.

By the same token: some medical professionals argue that oxybenzone should be avoided, but the rest are present in such small quantities in sunscreen that they are not harmful.

And when you can't find any corroboration within the basic principles of the field or from medical research, only other claims and assertions, then it isn't fact and shouldn't be presented as such. It is theory. And theory without at least a factual foundation is simply nonsense.

And going back to politics: after the Robert Hur DOJ report on Joe Biden's improper storage of classified documents was released, the internet was filled with clickbait articles declaring that Joe Biden was having serious memory problems and Robert Hur's report proved it.

But if you actually read Hur's report, you would see that the majority of people whom Hur interviewed had forgotten as much as Biden; that Hur excused all of them as having naturally forgotten events decades past -- except when writing about Joe Biden's memory at which point Hur declared he was senile.

The responsible reader should read the clickbait articles with suspicion. A responsible journalist would provide Hur's examples of Biden's failing memory, but then compare them to how Hur portrayed the memory failures of everyone else in Hur's report. And if a journalist doesn't look for those points of comparison, then they are irresponsible and inept.

  • Registered: 2015-06-22
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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

I've long said that Biden needed to do *something* at the border.  When you look at the issue, Biden is incredibly underwater, and it's one of the top issues in this election.  And unlike the economy (something that Biden is also very underwater on), it's something Biden can actively do something about.  The people that think Biden's doing a great job on immigration (or the people that think he's not being liberal enough with the border) are a very small subset of the population and almost all of them are probably going to vote for Biden no matter what he does.

But there are tons of possible Biden voters who don't like him because of his handling of the border, and those votes are up for grabs if Biden veers to the right on the border.  And he's finally doing that.  I don't know if he did enough - both sides spoke out against his executive order.  Which may be exactly what he needs to get independents that hate both candidates.

I actually would've recommended he go further.  I would've done what Trump keeps saying that he was going to do, and I'd shut the border down.  I think this accomplishes two things:

1. It probably helps him with some undecided/independent/soft Trump voters.  If they start to see the good economy and start to get annoyed by Trump, doing something at the border would be helpful.  It could be enough to tip the scales to Biden.

2. It 100% won't work and it cuts Trump's argument at its knees.  Immigration groups could immediately sue, and they'd win.  The border would get open again, and things would move on.  Then, in a debate, when Trump says he'll shut the border down on day one, Biden could say he did that and it didn't work.  Then, Biden could remind people that he'd previously tried something that would've worked with bipartisan legislation and Trump himself shut it down.

I'm not saying it would be enough to flip the issue or convince MAGA voters, but that's not going to happen.  Biden just needs to move towards even, and I think that would've worked.

Will this work?  Maybe?  Considering how close the election is, it doesn't have to work that much to get Biden a win.

  • Registered: 2015-06-22
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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Apparently Trump's final four picks for VP are Rubio, Burgum, Scott, and Vance.

Which I say....good.  I was worried he'd pick a female VP (he can still pick Stefanik but apparently Noem is now out) which could help him with conservative female voters that hate Trump.  I guess Scott could help him with black men (who he's aggressively targeting).  Rubio could hypothetically help him with Hispanics, but Trump or him would have to change residency (and I think Rubio would have to leave the Senate to do that) so I don't know how that makes sense.

I don't see how Burgum helps him electorally at all.  Vance might help him win Ohio (which could be slightly more tossup with the abortion vote there), but it could also potentially lose them a senate seat if they win.

If Trump was smart, Haley would be the pick.  I know VP matters almost nothing electorally, but I do think the VP candidates in both cases would be helpful considering the age and unlikability of the candidates.  I do think Biden would be slightly more palatable with people if they loved his VP.  Since people hate Harris more than they hate Biden, that makes it feel like Biden has no one behind him if he does die in office.

  • Registered: 2021-11-11
  • Posts: 500

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

big_smile big_smile big_smile big_smile big_smile big_smile big_smile big_smile big_smile

Longtime Trump adviser Steve Bannon ordered to go to prison by July 1

The right-wing operative/podcaster and longtime Trump adviser must report to prison in less than a month.

https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-sho … rcna155880

Nearly two years after Steve Bannon was found guilty of two counts of contempt of Congress, the right-wing operative/podcaster hoped an appeals court would undo what a jury already did. When that effort failed, Bannon faced the genuine possibility of incarceration.

That now appears increasingly unavoidable. NBC News reported:

A federal judge on Thursday ordered former Trump adviser Steve Bannon to report to prison on July 1 to begin a four-month prison sentence for defying subpoenas from the Jan. 6 Committee after a higher court rejected his appeal.

For those who might need a refresher as to how we arrived at this point, the one thing everyone involved in the process can agree on is that Bannon has important insights related to the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. He was in communications with then-President Donald Trump in the run-up to the insurrectionist riot, and he reportedly told the outgoing president, “It’s time to kill the Biden presidency in the crib.”

The day before the attack, Bannon seemed to know quite a bit about what was likely to happen, telling his podcast listeners: “All hell is going to break loose tomorrow. Just understand this: All hell is going to break loose tomorrow. ... All I can say is: Strap in. You have made this happen, and tomorrow it’s game day.”

With this in mind, it hardly came as a surprise that the bipartisan House committee investigating the attack issued subpoenas in September 2021, seeking information from key Trump insiders — and Bannon was at the top of the list.

When he refused to comply in any way, the House approved a resolution finding the GOP operative in contempt of Congress. As part of the same process, the Democratic-led chamber referred the matter to the Justice Department for possible criminal prosecution. In November 2021, Bannon was indicted by a federal grand jury, charged with one count of contempt and another involving his refusal to produce documents despite a congressional subpoena.

The criminal trial didn’t go especially well for the defendant: Bannon’s defense team called no witnesses, and the accused never took the stand. The jury only deliberated for about three hours before finding him guilty.

A few months later, U.S. District Court Judge Carl J. Nichols — also appointed by Trump — sentenced Bannon to four months behind bars, though the jurist said he could remain free while the appeals process continued.

As my MSNBC colleague Clarissa-Jan Lim explained in May, when a federal appeals court upheld Bannon’s conviction, he was left with few options.

Federal prosecutors told Nichols there was “no legal basis” for the continued stay. The jurist agreed and ordered Bannon to report to prison by next month.

The podcast host and his defense counsel will almost certainly continue to pursue appeals, though it appears increasingly inevitable that Bannon will soon be behind bars.

Complicating matters, Bannon is also slated to stand trial in New York City in September on charges related to his role in the “We Build the Wall” operation. In that case, he’s accused of helping defraud donors; he has pleaded not guilty. (Coincidentally, Judge Juan Merchan, who presided over Trump’s hush money trial, is overseeing Bannon’s other case, too.)

Bannon also faced federal criminal charges four years ago, though he received a pardon from Trump on the president’s last day in office.

Another presidential pardon this year appears extremely unlikely.

2,654 Reply by QuinnSlidr (edited by QuinnSlidr 2024-06-09 13:09:32)

  • Registered: 2021-11-11
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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

lol lol lol lol lol lol

https://x.com/ChrisDJackson/status/1799832693145739613

https://i.postimg.cc/mDYXgk15/image.png

  • Registered: 2015-06-22
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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Yeah I think the consensus is that Trump's crowds aren't as naturally big as people think.  In addition to people being paid, it's also a lot of the same people that travel from place to place

  • Registered: 2015-06-21
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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/winn … jane-kleeb

Bits and pieces of hope from Simon Rosenberg.

  • Registered: 2015-06-22
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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

I'm a little annoyed that the polls didn't shift much after the conviction, although there hasn't been a ton of polling since then.  I'm a little annoyed that the Supreme Court isn't releasing their immunity decision in a timely fashion when they know every day they wait helps Trump.

I'm not completely giving up because I think Trump will shed more voters than he'll gain.  I assume voters that aren't completely entrenched in one side or the other are giving Trump the benefit of the doubt, and Trump is benefitting from low visibility.  Outside of a major stumble by Biden, I think voters will either be annoyed by Trump, turned off by Trump, or find out about Trump's felon status.

At least that's my hope.  I've been pretty wrong recently.  I'm still confused how RFK is siphoning any votes from Biden, but that's still where we are.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Well, it depends on whether you're looking at aggregate polls averaged and thrown off by Republican-funded polls, or looking at independent polls.

https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/5-po … -new-biden

  • Registered: 2015-06-22
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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

That helps.  538 came up with their forecast and when it launched there was a 52% chance that Biden wins.  They explained that, while Trump is leading nationally and in the swing states, the model takes other factors into play.

To me, I think the election rides on a number of things (not necessarily in order):

- The economy.  I think the economy needs to improve.  It seems like interest rates might drop before the election, and the stock market continues to soar to record highs.  I assume prices are going to stay high, but if Americans can consistently feel better about the economy, Biden will be fine.  I still think there's gotta be something that Biden can do about prices, but maybe there isn't.

- Immigration.  Does the recent executive order move the needle?  If not, would a drastic drop in immigration coverage over the next six months move the needle?

- The debates.  This might be the first time people see Trump talk in years.  Will he talk about the 2020 election that seems to turn off swing voters?  Will he ramble about sharks and other nonsense?  Will Biden be able to get through the election without looking overly old or feeble?  Any of those things could shift favor to Biden.  Of course, a Biden frailty moment could absolutely crush things so it's huge risk for both.

- The DC trial.  Will it happen at all?

- Which side can coalesce their base.  Can Biden get all the young people back?  Can Trump get the Haley people back?

- RFK Jr.  Can Biden voters who are currently picking RFK get turned off by him?  Can RFK get any Trump voters that are turned off by him?

If Biden is currently winning, these things can all drive more voters to him.  I think the things that can pull votes from him are basically a) if the economy starts sputtering or b) Biden tanks one of the debates or a major speech.  Right now, I think Trump has more to lose but I wish there was more losing happening at the moment smile

  • Registered: 2015-06-22
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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Biden has been taking a national lead in some of the polls (understanding that some of these polls are partisan), and he's closed the gap in the last few days to within a percentage point on 538's polling average.  More importantly, IMO, this is due to a combination of Biden gaining support and Trump losing support.  Right now, the polling average has Trump at 40.8% and Biden at 40.3%.  So while it's possible that Trump is shedding votes to "undecided" that he'll get back, there's a chance some of those votes are going from Trump to Biden...which is obviously the best results.

The blue wall in the Midwest also appears to be tracking towards Biden.  The polling average for Michigan is basically tied, the one in Wisconsin is within 0.2%, and Pennsylvania is now at 1%.  Even in the Sun Belt states, Biden is gaining but still about 5% down in all three states.

What's scary about the blue wall is that it 100% includes the Nebraska 2nd district.  If Biden wins PA, WI, and MI, and Trump wins GA, AZ, and NV, the Nebraska 2nd decides the election.  If Biden gets it, it's 270-268.  If Trump gets it, it's 269-269 and Trump wins in the tiebreak.  So the blue wall needs to be 4 pieces, not 3.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

For the first time in a long time, Biden leads Trump in 538's polling average.

- it's by the most insignificant margin (0.1%)
- Biden is going to need to lead by a lot more than that to win

But it feels really good to see that.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Even FOX News thinks Trump is on a losing streak.
https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/bide … ead-in-fox

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Some of this might end up regressing back to the original mean, but it feels good for now.  There's also evidence that Americans (non-MAGA at least) are starting to realize that the economy is either getting better or isn't as bad as they thought.  Which would be huge - I assume a lot of Biden's retreating approval and votes are economy based.  Even a small increase in American confidence in the economy would really help.  Same with immigration.

That being said, I'm getting very nervous about the first debate.  A lot is riding on it.  If Trump rambles about nonsense or has his own senior moment, it could hurt him with independents.  After all, half the reason people are voting for "not Biden" is that he seems old.  If they both seem old or if Trump somehow comes across as old and crazy, then Biden's advantage returns.

That being said, if Biden comes out looking old and/or feeble, then that opinion of Biden could be frozen and some of those voters may never come back.  Biden needs a strong performance.  That being said, apparently Biden has been doing a ton of debate prep, and Trump has been doing almost none.  If that's true, Trump could struggle and Biden could impress.  We'll see.  I'll be very nervously watching.

I'm not sure if it matters, but there's still undecideds and Kennedy voters that are up for grabs.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Well, if you're nervous, do something about it. Something small and achieveable. Mail a pre-debate Gatorade and a Red Bull to the White House, Slider_Quinn21. :-)

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

ireactions wrote:

Well, if you're nervous, do something about it. Something small and achieveable. Mail a pre-debate Gatorade and a Red Bull to the White House, Slider_Quinn21. :-)

Ha, I'll just have to settle for another donation big_smile

Poll update (FiveThirtyEight)

- Biden has expanded his lead in the national poll average to 0.4%.  Basically insignificant except for my mental health
- Biden has also taken the lead in Michigan and Wisconsin.  Less than 1% and insignificant except for my mental health.
- Biden has closed the gap in Pennsylvania to 0.3%.  It was over 1% a week ago.
- Biden has also closed the gap in the Sun Belt.  Arizona (2.8%), Nevada (3%), and Georgia (4.7%) are looking better.  It would obviously be best case scenario for Biden to win at least one of these states.  We wouldn't want this to come down to a single state (or a single electoral vote) because even if Biden gets to 270, Trump still has a few (illegal) avenues to try and steal this thing.

But it's good to see that Biden is starting to take the lead both nationally and in the electoral college.  If Hopium guy is right and if there is some sort of error in the polling that will help Biden, then we're in even better shape.  But it's good to know that Biden is winning even with some potential garbage in the numbers.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

I should note, Slider_Quinn21, that orange flavoured Gatorade is Joe Biden's drink of choice.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Kind of scared of this debate.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

It's going pretty bad so far.  Biden looks old and Trump has been staying on point and not acting like a lunatic yet.

Still lots of time but I'm not loving it so far.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Biden clearly has a cold.

He sounds like me. I currently have COVID.

2,670 Reply by Grizzlor

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Preface: Biden is losing on the vast majority of polls, some are stunningly bad.  I read Rosenberg's Hopium thing, he is well meaning, and I concur that the polling is bad because it's way too Trumpy in who they're actually sampling.  That being said, I'm sorry, but they're not THAT far off, and not in the quantity.  aka they can't all be wrong, it's just math. 

First half: Might be the worst debate performance I've ever seen, of anybody, and Biden having it.  Trump is spewing nonsense, but he's coherent and Biden is horse and stammering badly.  He couldn't even win the abortion topic, and allowed Trump to go largely untouched on Jan 6th. 

Second half: Trump bitching about who tattled on his "suckers and losers" and these two idiots bickering over who's the worst President ever is just an embarrassment.  They wound up in a back and forth over their golf games.  Completely ridiculous.  Trump rambled, and Biden was slightly more legible when angry. 

Outcome: I do not see how Biden is the nominee.  His campaign claims he had a cold???  GTFO.  I warned about this months and months ago.  His largest hurdle was looking entirely incompetent on immigration, Afghanistan, and inflation, and Trump absolutely buried him with it.  Biden's retorts were mumbled and frankly it was startling to watch.  How can anyone seriously consider Biden for another four years after appearing like this?  He should have been replaced a year ago on the campaign.  Jill Biden, if she loves her husband, has to take him out of this campaign.  For his own dignity.  Joe Biden may be very good at making decisions, but you MUST be able to communicate in a campaign, and he is completely incapable of that now.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Grizzlor wrote:

Biden is losing on the vast majority of polls, some are stunningly bad.  I read Rosenberg's Hopium thing, he is well meaning, and I concur that the polling is bad because it's way too Trumpy in who they're actually sampling.  That being said, I'm sorry, but they're not THAT far off, and not in the quantity.  aka they can't all be wrong, it's just math.

The consistent overperformance of Democrats in actual elections means that polls are that wrong; polls aren't results.

Grizzlor wrote:

Biden is horse and stammering badly.

I do not see how Biden is the nominee.  His campaign claims he had a cold???  GTFO.  I warned about this months and months ago.  His largest hurdle was looking entirely incompetent on immigration, Afghanistan, and inflation, and Trump absolutely buried him with it.  Biden's retorts were mumbled and frankly it was startling to watch.  How can anyone seriously consider Biden for another four years after appearing like this?  He should have been replaced a year ago on the campaign.  Jill Biden, if she loves her husband, has to take him out of this campaign.  For his own dignity.  Joe Biden may be very good at making decisions, but you MUST be able to communicate in a campaign, and he is completely incapable of that now.

Yes, you were saying that Biden should step down based on the clickbait reports the Robert Hur report, saying, "It's over.  Biden has to step aside.  The special counsel describes him as effectively an old geezer who soon will forget his own name.  I do not know what other RED flag is needed at this point???"

After the Hur report was exposed as a misleading fraud by actual transcripts, you declared, "As for Hur, look, his comments even at face value are basically worthless.  He found no evidence of wrongdoing, end stop, everything else he wrote should have been discarded.  The problem is the MEDIA.  They blew up what he said."

Biden put forth a commanding performance in the State of the Union; his Democrat detractors were silent, then he put forward a hoarse presence in this debate and now they've gone back to the post-Hur hysteria. People like this don't have any real positions or convictions or beliefs; they're just reacting to whatever clickbait last triggered them.

Should Biden be replaced? He's certainly not my choice for the Democratic candidate, but replacing him at this point seems like a fantasy. I'd certainly rather see Gretchen Whitmer or Andrew Yang than Biden.

Incumbents are always rusty. Obama blew his first debate against Romney too.

Does this matter? I honestly doubt presidential debates have more than a negligible effect. People who watch them already know how they're going to vote.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Grizzlor wrote:

Preface: Biden is losing on the vast majority of polls, some are stunningly bad.

I agree with a lot of what you have to say about Biden which I'm happy to get into, but you're going to have to share your work here.  I look at polls almost daily, and I'm not seeing anything like what you're saying.  Basically every poll has them tied.  Biden has started taking the lead nationally, in Wisconsin, and in Michigan.  Pennsylvania is basically tied.  If those polls are accurate and Pennsylvania tips to Biden, Biden wins with 270 electoral votes.

Georgia is still looking rough.  Arizona is closing but not great.  But Nevada is closing.  Biden has gained a couple points and he led in a recent poll there.

So maybe I'm not looking at the same polls as you, or maybe you're getting talking points from someone who's listening too much to Trump.  But even if I give you "Biden is losing in the vast majority of polls" (which you could argue is true), I don't see *any* that are bad, let alone stunningly bad.  The polls that Biden is losing, he's losing by 1 point.  And some of the polls have Biden winning with registered voters and Trump winning with likely voters.  Which means Biden's voters are more likely (irony acknowledged) than Trump's are.  That's the issue with the shifting demographics - Republicans picked up a ton of voters but they're people that don't usually vote.  The ones they lost (college educated) usually vote in every election.

********

So, the debate.  I think the first 30 minutes was a disaster.  And the first 30 minutes is probably the parts that people watched.  I struggled to stay engaged, and even some of my liberal friends dropped out early.  So even though I think Biden got a lot better as the night went on, I don't know if anyone saw.  Or if anyone is going to care.

I had two thoughts last night.  First, it's so frustrating that we're in this position because it was avoidable.  But at the same time, I see why we're here.  I think it all goes back to the VP decision, and I think they needed to pick someone with less baggage.  I know Kamala had the experience you'd want, but I wish they'd found someone else.  I know there weren't a ton of choices, and I don't know if Stacey Abrams would've had any less baggage.  But if they could've found a black woman mayor or state representative or something, they could've spend 2020 to now building her up.  The problem is that the VP choice is the obvious successor, and if she's not the successor, you end up potentially upsetting black and/or female voters if they'd switched to, say, Gavin Newsom.  Even if it was an open primary, I think it would've potentially cost you the election right that.  So I think everyone agrees that they should've gone with someone else, but if that someone else HAD to be Harris, I think Biden is the right choice.  She's already more unpopular than Biden with less experience and her own baggage.  Not to mention racism or sexism.

My second thought is...I don't know if this performance really matters.  Biden looked old and fragile, but that's basically what people already thought of him. No one's opinion changed on Biden last night.  Maybe people forgot he was old and fragile and his polling might dip, but if they forgot before, they might forget again.

Biden's actual words and policies and performance weren't terrible.  He didn't say anything controversial, and he stood up to Trump a bunch of times.  I think the worst part of the debate for Biden is that Trump never really went on any crazy tangents.  He didn't start randomly talking about water pressure or sharks or stuff like that.  I think the more senile and crazy Trump looks, it sorta takes away the advantage.  If people walk away thinking that they're both old and/or senile, that's a huge win for Biden.  And that didn't really happen.

Trump did lie a ton, and he lied about stuff that's verifiable.  MAGA people won't care, but I assume independent voters know that there aren't after-birth abortions in any state.  Independent voters know that Pelosi isn't in charge of the national guard and can't override the president.  In all the stuff I've seen, Trump's lies and Biden's age are being reported side by side.  Some people might be okay with Trump's lies but not be okay with Biden's age.  Some people might be okay with Biden's age and not be okay with Trump's lies.  But in both cases, I gotta think those opinions are already baked into to most people's decision.  If Trump looks crazy or if Biden lies, that might do more to move the needle.

So it was bad.  Almost worst case scenario.  But I don't know if it was a doomsday scenario.  Not yet.  But the pressure is on Biden in the second debate now.  Which might lead to a doomsday scenario.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Slider_Quinn21 wrote:

It's going pretty bad so far.  Biden looks old and Trump has been staying on point and not acting like a lunatic yet.

Still lots of time but I'm not loving it so far.

Trump (Hitler) lied and lied and lied and lied and lied. That is not being on point. A true lunatic in every sense of the word.

2,674 Reply by QuinnSlidr (edited by QuinnSlidr 2024-06-28 10:45:50)

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

The biggest problem with the debate are the following: Biden had a cold. He was also on medication for this cold.

Biden didn't do well at first and did better after because he has a severe stutter. He was sick. He was forced to fact check his opponent while also having to give his answer in 2 minutes. If you've ever known someone with a severe stutter, then that kind of time frame which includes having to try to get that much information out is incredibly difficult.

Shame on CNN for not fact-checking or moderating properly. Shame on them for letting Trump tell lies like "doctors taking babies out of womb at nine months and killing them," which forced Biden to be the fact checker. Biden shouldn't have to do the fact checking but because Biden was doing the fact checking while sick and having a severe stutter, he fumbled a lot until he could get control.

Please note: if you look at all of his previous appearances and presentations and speeches in the last 2 to 3 months you will not see any major issues including during the State of the Union.

He's also done an amazing job as President we have the number one economy in the world. The World Bank even says we're holding up everybody else. But sure - because of all the propagandist BS, let's judge him completely on one bad performance while he's sick, having to fact check his lying opponent, AND get his point out in 2 minutes with a severe stutter.

Maybe his four year record is what we should be looking at not how he performed during a SINGLE debate where had to fact check someone who is a lying POS every time they open their mouth.

This will not change my vote one iota. It's still democrat - straight down the ticket.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

QuinnSlidr wrote:

This will not change my vote one iota. It's still democrat - straight down the ticket.

Well, yeah.  This, forever.  Nothing about last night could've changed that.  Biden has my vote, and I'll enthusiastically vote for him.  One thing that made me sad a little bit is that Biden from 8-12 years ago would've wiped the floor with Trump last night.  He wouldn't have let Trump get away with any of that BS.  But he's lost his fastball.  Pitchers can pitch for a decade after they lose their fastball, but sometimes, people need their fastball.

I'm with Biden until the end.  I would just feel a little better if there was someone else running.  As I said, that person couldn't just be anyone, and that isn't happening in either way.  So it doesn't really matter either way.

Trump (Hitler) lied and lied and lied and lied and lied. That is not being on point. A true lunatic in every sense of the word.

Oh for sure (and I referenced that).  But I don't think him lying is good enough for Biden to score points.  We know Trump lies, and a decent amount of the voter base doesn't care.  The ones that do may not know he's lying.  Without a true live fact check, there's no way for viewers to know what's true and what isn't.  I assume well-educated people know that no states allow post-birth abortions, but I don't know if everyone knows that.  When Trump says garbage about the successes he's had, people may not know better.

What Biden needed was for Trump to not be a liar but to be crazy.  He seems to go on these weird rambling stories when he does rallies, and it turns people off (even MAGA people).  A lot of times, MAGA people leave his rallies early because they're tired of hearing him ramble on about sharks and showers.  Debates aren't really a good format to expose people to that, but it's the best chance that people have to see what a lunatic he is.  I was truly hoping he'd say some bizarre nonsense because I think that's the best way to peel off people from Trump.  They might even know he's a liar, but they need to also know that he's crazy.

There's another debate.  If Biden does well in the next one, this one won't matter.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Slider_Quinn21 wrote:
QuinnSlidr wrote:

This will not change my vote one iota. It's still democrat - straight down the ticket.

Well, yeah.  This, forever.  Nothing about last night could've changed that.  Biden has my vote, and I'll enthusiastically vote for him.  One thing that made me sad a little bit is that Biden from 8-12 years ago would've wiped the floor with Trump last night.  He wouldn't have let Trump get away with any of that BS.  But he's lost his fastball.  Pitchers can pitch for a decade after they lose their fastball, but sometimes, people need their fastball.

I'm with Biden until the end.  I would just feel a little better if there was someone else running.  As I said, that person couldn't just be anyone, and that isn't happening in either way.  So it doesn't really matter either way.

Trump (Hitler) lied and lied and lied and lied and lied. That is not being on point. A true lunatic in every sense of the word.

Oh for sure (and I referenced that).  But I don't think him lying is good enough for Biden to score points.  We know Trump lies, and a decent amount of the voter base doesn't care.  The ones that do may not know he's lying.  Without a true live fact check, there's no way for viewers to know what's true and what isn't.  I assume well-educated people know that no states allow post-birth abortions, but I don't know if everyone knows that.  When Trump says garbage about the successes he's had, people may not know better.

What Biden needed was for Trump to not be a liar but to be crazy.  He seems to go on these weird rambling stories when he does rallies, and it turns people off (even MAGA people).  A lot of times, MAGA people leave his rallies early because they're tired of hearing him ramble on about sharks and showers.  Debates aren't really a good format to expose people to that, but it's the best chance that people have to see what a lunatic he is.  I was truly hoping he'd say some bizarre nonsense because I think that's the best way to peel off people from Trump.  They might even know he's a liar, but they need to also know that he's crazy.

There's another debate.  If Biden does well in the next one, this one won't matter.

Oh, I know your vote. I know that a lot of dems are nervous about last night. And deservedly so. But I think some of the assessments about President Biden are way out there and reek of propagandist junk, because they don't take into consideration the reality of some of what transpired.

I don't think Biden lost his fastball. I think his hands were tied by a couple of issues - namely, CNN's terrible moderation, his cold, and medication. I think if Biden were normal last night, he wouldn't have any issues and would have mopped the floor with Trump in more ways than one. I think he will show up 100% for the second debate and will (hopefully) be more prepared.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Biden was sick. At a later Waffle House appearance, he was asked if he were sick and he said he had a sore throat. He sounded like me right now. I'm having trouble breathing through my nose right now due to congestion, so my mouth hangs open. But I have the luxury of staying in my bedroom.

But it was still a really bad performance that made him look aged and worn out. The Democratic social media is blowing up with calls for Biden to decline the Democratic nomination and even former Republican-turned Democrats Steve Schmidt (Lincoln Project co-creator) and The Bulwark are strongly advising that Biden step down. Vox proposed that a refresh could reinvigorate Democrats: https://www.vox.com/politics/357876/bid … wn-atlanta

Simon Rosenberg says Biden was sick, had a bad night, and advises that people continue to, as he says, "worry less and do more". I hope that's true. But optics matter. Biden came off as sickly and weak. https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/joe- … sident-who

As QuinnSlidr notes: Biden has sounded totally fine in the last three months, especially in his State of the Union, so his bad performance was due to his health on this specific night, but it was still a terrible night on a national stage.

It may not matter. Presidential debates have a neglible effect on the actual election. Biden just needs to put in another State of the Union level performance somewhere for this debate to be forgotten. But the debate was bad.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

(Please note: I'm still enthusiastic about Biden.  I promise to make a donation to his campaign as soon as I press submit)

My friends and I had a thought experiment.  Let's say Biden talks with his people and decides it's best for the country that he not run.  There was some rumor by some random person on Twitter that perhaps Whitmer and Newsom are in play and that Harris is mad that she's not.  Let's say that's all true and Biden agrees.  Let's also say that the Democratic Party does something and convinces Harris to come out and enthusiastically support the next ticket.

For the thought experiment, Newsom is the presidential candidate and Whitmer is the VP candidate.  They instantly come out hard, and MAGA struggles to tear them down since most people don't know who they are.  Newsom can stand up to Trump in a way that Biden never did, and looks young and charismatic.  Whitmer is able to run circles around Scott or whoever Trump picks as VP. 

How does that feel?  I know almost nothing about either.  But Whitmer is very popular in Michigan - does that seal one of the six swing states for the new ticket?  Does it feel like turning the page? 

Or does California (and hatred of California) ruin Newsom?  Would America still be too sexist to elect Whitmer if she's the nominee?  Are the polls right and people actually like Biden more than him (or Whitmer) or does Biden inherit all the Biden voters plus any people on the fence?

I think its an interesting thought experiment.  I think it would rely exclusively on everyone being completely on board from Biden to Harris to the two candidates, and I think it would all need to be announced at once.  But would that work as a thought experiment?

2,679 Reply by ireactions (edited by ireactions 2024-06-28 14:35:01)

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

A post-debate Joe Biden seems to have regained his voice for a North Carolina rally and sounds normal:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OHJoewM3WfU

Joe Biden:

I know: I'm not a young man. To state the obvious.

I don't walk as easy as I used to.

I don't speak as smoothly as I used to.

I don't debate as well as I used to.

But I know what I do know:

I know how to tell the truth.

I know right from wrong.

And I know how to do this job. I know how to get things done. I know, like millions of Americans know: when you get knocked down, you get back up.

If the Biden we saw at debate was the Biden that his team is working with daily, they would never have gone for an early debate. The debate was an aberration of illness and deeply unfortunate timing.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Yeah, I'm hoping that's the case.  We need him to be this version.  Both as president and in the second debate.

Sent him some money smile

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

All is not lost. THE President Biden...today...

https://x.com/Acyn/status/1806741275246518312

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Holy cow.  If this guy was consistently showing up, Biden would be crushing it.  If he'd shown up in the debate, it would've been a totally different story.

We need *much* more of this in a *very* public forum, and the criticisms of him will fall apart.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Pretty much every media agency is calling for Biden to step down.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/06/2 … e-00165914

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/ … t-00165917

It may blow over. It's pretty clear to me that the mumbling, hoarse, incoherent Biden of the debate was due to illness, but the rest of the world may not see it that way. Grizzlor certainly doesn't, and I don't blame him.

The full version of his fiery post-debate rally speech is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OHJoewM3WfU

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Simon Rosenberg at Hopium Chronicles points out via Lawrence O'Donnell: two-thirds of voters didn't watch Biden's disastrous debate, which strikes me as peering out awkwardly from a car crash and saying, well, nobody saw it, so it's not that bad.

Simon Rosenberg: In politics you have good days, and bad days. There is a long way to go in this election, an election that for all intents and purposes started this week and is today close and competitive, with us I believe more likely to win. My basic take on 2024 hasn’t changed, and if anything the Trump I saw on Thursday night looked far more extreme, bat-shit crazy, and beatable than I expected.

I was disappointed with Biden’s performance on Thursday, and I think the campaign needs to spend meaningful time figuring out how their big debate gambit backfired and what it means going forward. Yes, our job got a bit harder this week. But today, June 29th, 2024, I wake up knowing that over the next 4+ months I would much rather be us than them.

https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/lawr … -up-2-more

Maybe he's right.

2,685 Reply by pilight

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Any Democrat with a pulse would win this election.  Naturally they're running somebody who doesn't have one.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

It's a fair question. Why is the Democratic nominee someone so shaky and past his prime? Are we looking at another Hillary Clinton situation where Democrats are supporting someone who simply isn't capable?

Before the debate, a lot of pundits whom I respect remarked that Joe Biden is pretty good at politics and pretty good at being president.

In September 2023, Franklin Foer wrote that Joe Biden is good at politics:
https://www.salon.com/2023/09/13/joe-bi … klin-foer/

In March 2023, Dylan Matthews wrote on Vox that Joe Biden is pretty good at being president and should run again:
https://www.vox.com/politics/2023/3/1/2 … ala-harris

Today, Franklin Foer has reversed his tune:
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/ar … te/678823/

And Vox.com is filled with articles saying Biden should step down.

I don't know. In 2023, Biden seemed like the best bet to beat Donald Trump again. But that debate was shook me up, and shook a lot of people up, cold or no cold.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Slider_Quinn21 wrote:

Holy cow.  If this guy was consistently showing up, Biden would be crushing it.  If he'd shown up in the debate, it would've been a totally different story.

We need *much* more of this in a *very* public forum, and the criticisms of him will fall apart.

Exactly. What a day to get a cold.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Yeah. About that cold. A cold might make a 40 year old look and sound 60. Was Joe's cold, at 81, making him look and sound like he was 200 years old?

I've been watching Joe Biden pretty closely five years. I've seen him work past word blocks and substitute incorrect words and names. I've watched his appearances in the last three months. I have never, ever heard Biden sound as hoarse or look as confused or disoriented as he did in his first 2024 presidential election debate.

I have, however, heard myself sound as awful and look as confused as Biden did; the past week, I've had COVID. Seven vaccinations are apparently enough to keep me out of the hospital but not from getting sick. My cough syrup makes me drowsy, the lack of sleep makes me hazy, the agony of my sore throat and the Advil that barely dulls it makes me shaky. I do not speak well. My mouth hangs open when I'm not speaking because my nose is too congested to otherwise breathe. My voice has become a tired mutter for the past several days.

I sound old and tired. I sound like Joe on debate night.

The next day at his rally, Joe was loud and fiery, but he coughed periodically, like his doctor had prescribed him some steroids to get his throat and nose clear enough to shout and yell as needed, but there was still some airway irritation.

Joe is 81, but a cold without the right medication could make him seem centuries older whereas a more-capably medicated cold would make him sound... well, younger and more energetic. The wheezy fellow of the debate was not the booming statesman of the rally the next day.

I hope I sound like Joe at his rally in the next few days.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

They're talking about Latino voters but that's a huge vote that needs to be secured so it's good news.

I believe that the media and the policy wonks and all who concentrated on Biden's performance and not Trump's but it looks like a lot of fence sitters, from what I'm seeing online in social media are now more determined than ever to vote for Biden because they don't want Trump in office. They don't care that Biden had a bad night they focused on what Trump was saying. And some of what he said on the debate stage is he was going to use the military to go in and raid all their communities and deport people.

Even though the debate for the first 30 minutes was pretty bad it looks like it may not have had a negative effect on Biden's election chances.

===========================

Undecided voters say they now support Joe Biden after debate.......

https://x.com/Newsweek/status/1806707486340071563

2,690 Reply by ireactions (edited by ireactions 2024-06-29 21:14:10)

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Biden gave another great speech in NYC:
https://www.youtube.com/live/B7NyV_EENF … &t=597

Biden tries to calm nervous donors:
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/06/2 … p-00165933

Biden insider confesses that following the debate, Biden felt "humiliated, devoid of confidence and painfully aware that the physical images of him at the debate — eyes staring into the distance, mouth agape — will live beyond his presidency, along with a performance that at times was meandering, incoherent and difficult to hear. 'It’s a mess,' this person said."
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-e … rcna159591

ireactions is fond of Joe Biden and shakes nervously.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

ireactions wrote:

Biden gave another great speech in NYC:
https://www.youtube.com/live/B7NyV_EENF … &t=597

Biden tries to calm nervous donors:
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/06/2 … p-00165933

Biden insider confesses that following the debate, Biden felt "humiliated, devoid of confidence and painfully aware that the physical images of him at the debate — eyes staring into the distance, mouth agape — will live beyond his presidency, along with a performance that at times was meandering, incoherent and difficult to hear. 'It’s a mess,' this person said."
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-e … rcna159591

ireactions is fond of Joe Biden and shakes nervously.

Agreed. I'm nervous about this but at least some signs are showing that it's not hurting President Biden as much as initially thought.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

I think one thing to remember is that Trump didn't actually have a great debate either.  Not only did he lie, but he lied about things that are pretty easily verified.  That might've turned off voters in the same way that Biden being old did.  In fact, like I said before, those are two very similar things.  People know Biden is old and *looks and sounds* old.  People know Trump is a liar.  Which one bothers people more?

When Trump said that "everyone wanted Roe v Wade overturned" that's both a lie and one that's easily known by the majority of Americans, including conservatives, that supported Roe before and after Dobbs.  When he said that babies are being killed after birth, that's a common sense thing that most people wouldn't believe.

Trump could easily say that "illegal immigration is bad" or "the border is not as secure as it should be" and people would probably agree with him.  The problem is that he says that millions of people are coming across the border and are killing people in ways that we could've never even considered in our worst nightmares, and people can easily verify if that's true.  The population of Arizona is 7.4 million people.  People in Arizona might notice if 1 out of 7 people were illegal immigrants.

It would be like if Biden said that climate change is a problem and that 2/3 of the country is now uninhabitable.  Or that most coastal states are now underwater.  It's a real problem that a lot of people agree with, but he's now taken it to such an insane level that he'd probably start to lose people.

So if people care about the lies, that's one thing.  Biden may be old but he's also president right now.  A Biden presidency isn't a hypothetical.  It's happening right now.  And if things keep going okay, I think people will be more okay with more of it.

*****

I say this as someone who's now made a few donations to Biden, but the idea of a Newsom/Whitmer ticket really comforted me after the debate.  The fiery Biden we saw recently has calmed me down a bit, but we need to keep seeing it.  I think the Democrats need to think long and hard about whether they should go all in with Biden.  I'm voting for the Democratic ticket no matter what (I'd vote for Hunter Biden and any running mate) and I'll enthusiastically support Biden if he's the guy.

But as someone who wants to win at (almost) any cost, I think it's prudent to consider alternatives.  Especially after post-debate polls start cementing.  I love Joe, and I want him to succeed.  But this is bigger than Joe or his ego or his pride.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Is Joe Biden in 2024 as weak a candidate as Hillary Clinton in 2016? That debate made him look weak. But we'll have to see how it shakes out in the polls of the next several weeks, and the only polls I would trust are through Simon Rosenberg at Hopium.

Would someone else be stronger? The unfortunate reality is that incumbent presidential candidates who drop out leave a newcomer in a weak and chaotic position on track to lose.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

This Washington Post article is paywalled, but eight Biden aides spoke anonymously with the Post. They report that their debate prep for Biden had prepared for every single question Biden ended up facing on debate night. Their practice sessions were detailed and meticulous, and readily anticipated pretty much every topic and situation.

In the sessions, the president still spoke haltingly. He sometimes confused facts and figures. He tripped over words and meandered. Debate prep would not fix his stutter or make him appear any younger, aides knew. Every topic he was asked about Thursday, he had practiced answers for — including the final one about his age.

Biden's team knew what was coming, and they had planned for all of it with the president.

So aides were bewildered by his performance. Many felt they had never seen him collapse so dramatically. After all, Biden was a veteran of numerous debates — as a senator, vice-presidential nominee and presidential candidate. And they did not understand why he gave an entirely different answer on the age question than the one they spent more than a week perfecting.

But with another debate scheduled for September — a Biden campaign spokesman said the president would not withdraw from it — aides and allies are scrutinizing the president’s preparation for last week’s debate to figure out if they missed signs of what would unfold in CNN’s Atlanta studio.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics … ing-event/

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

ireactions wrote:

This Washington Post article is paywalled, but eight Biden aides spoke anonymously with the Post. They report that their debate prep for Biden had prepared for every single question Biden ended up facing on debate night. Their practice sessions were detailed and meticulous, and readily anticipated pretty much every topic and situation.

In the sessions, the president still spoke haltingly. He sometimes confused facts and figures. He tripped over words and meandered. Debate prep would not fix his stutter or make him appear any younger, aides knew. Every topic he was asked about Thursday, he had practiced answers for — including the final one about his age.

Biden's team knew what was coming, and they had planned for all of it with the president.

So aides were bewildered by his performance. Many felt they had never seen him collapse so dramatically. After all, Biden was a veteran of numerous debates — as a senator, vice-presidential nominee and presidential candidate. And they did not understand why he gave an entirely different answer on the age question than the one they spent more than a week perfecting.

But with another debate scheduled for September — a Biden campaign spokesman said the president would not withdraw from it — aides and allies are scrutinizing the president’s preparation for last week’s debate to figure out if they missed signs of what would unfold in CNN’s Atlanta studio.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics … ing-event/

President Biden had to fact-check a debate that had no fact checkers or any moderation to speak of, in addition to being sick, when faced with an onslaught of lies from Trump every second of the debate. Of course any person would falter in that scenario. CNN should be ashamed of themselves for how they conducted it.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

It seems to me that Biden's team knew and accepted there would be no fact checking or moderation and that Trump would lie and lie and lie and lie -- they prepared responses for Biden to deliver in these scenarios -- and then, on debate night, Biden was unable to deliver any of the rehearsed replies, delivering completely different answers than what they'd all planned and practiced.

The question is why?

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

I guess my questions is why Biden looked so tired and weak on debate night and then twelve hours later looked like a completely different person.  Did they give him cold medicine that made him drowsy?  Did he get different cold medicine the next day that amped him up?

If Biden will not step aside, is there some way to replace Harris without causing an issue?  I wonder if the American public would be happier with Biden if they liked his VP and thought he could be president.

Another thought experiment.  If Biden replaced Harris with Raphael Warnock or Gretchen Whitmer, would that ease people's concerns?  Could it help Biden get Georgia or Michigan, respectively?  Maybe Biden could promise Harris a spot on the Supreme Court?  Attorney General?  I don't know what it would take for Harris to gracefully take a demotion, but if Biden won't step down and people are upset with Biden for his age, I feel like VP is the only lever left to pull.

*******

What's frustrating about this is that I don't think people seem all that upset with Biden's policies.  It seems to be mostly Biden's age, something Biden has no control over.  Biden wouldn't have to retire from politics if she stepped down, just like Bill Clinton and Barack Obama are still active in politics.  Is this ego, or is this a career politician going with his gut that he's the only one that can win?

Because this election is winnable with a candidate that 72% of people think is too old to run.  If they pivot to Warnock or Newsom or Whitmer, I don't know how many people that are currently voting for Biden are going to be upset.  There's going to be less name recognition, but that may be the reason why someone like RFK is getting any votes at all.  "Anyone but Trump or Biden" could mean any other candidate the Democrats choose.

So you'd get 1) people that hate Trump and 2) people that hate Trump and Biden, and then it would just be a matter of getting people that like Biden.  I think you just have the candidate you pick campaign with Biden and promise to stay on the same track.

The more I think about it, the risk of moving away from Biden goes away.  My concern is for the Democratic Party to generate a ticket that no one voted for, but I'm guessing people aren't really going to care if that ticket wins.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Mika Brzezinski has offered her take: Biden's team overscheduled him with so much travel and so many events before the debate: back to back trips to France and Italy, then to Los Angeles for fundraisers. Biden's team sent him out on onto the evening debate stage exhausted by the whole day and the weeks leading up to it:

https://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch … 3993029565

The next day, Biden had slept and attended a morning event.

Biden's team, Brzezinski seems to suggest, is booking him like he's 51 instead of 81, and aren't managing his energy well. Brzezinski then went through Biden's tragic personal history and how many times his political career has been declared dead and over, followed by his win upon win upon win as president.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

The Supreme Court effectively kicked Trump's trial to the American people with a 6-3 muddled decision by the weak John Roberts.  With Cannon blocking the case with everything she has and the complexity of the Georgia case, Trump will have no more trials before the election.  What a mess of the legal system falling over itself to protect Trump.

But it means this election is even more important for us and for Trump.  He has to lose, and that means that anything (including Joe Biden's ego and Joe Biden's legacy) needs to be put aside to beat him.

The legal system failed.  We cannot fail ourselves.

2,700 Reply by pilight

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

The decision comes from asking the wrong question.  Of course officials have to have some level of immunity for official acts.  The question needs to be 'what constitutes an official act'?