American Politics: Discuss and Debate (Page 53 of 57)

I voted! That means I won't see any more political ads, right?

Very interesting.  Kamala is campaigning with Allred in Houston this week.  I'm super fascinated with this because I wonder what it's saying about her internals.  I would think that if the race was as close as the polling implies, she should be spending every possible second in one of the battleground states.  Campaigning with Allred, who I don't expect to win, seems like a waste of time.  Even if the Allred race is looking better than we think, if we lose the White House but pick up one seat in the senate, is that worth it?  I'd rather win the White House and lose the Senate.  Or obviously have Kamala campaign in the battlegrounds and get someone else to campaign with Allred in Houston (Beto, Liz Cheney, one of the Obamas, etc).

So this is either a really weird strategy (as weird as Trump campaigning in California or New York), or something is happening.  There's a sense in Democrat circles that Harris is winning by more than we think.  The way Trump is acting, the way Harris is campaigning, the money on the ground, the people on the ground, and some of the crosstab stuff we're seeing is making people think.  I don't know if that's the case, but for her to come to Texas, I think one of these needs to be true:

1. Her internal data is so confident that she will win that they're willing to donate some of her time to Allred to try and get her a blue senate
2. She's going to be in Houston for some sort of VP work, and her internals look good enough that she's not rushing to a nearby battleground state (Arizona or Georgia would be a quick trip) to maximize her time
3. She's doing something at the border and has time to swing by to help Allred.  But basically the same point as #2 except if she's going to the border, why wouldn't she go to the Arizona border to do two birds with one stone?  And is there enough time to maximize on some sort of border stunt?
4. Allred is close enough that they're looking to make some sort of push to get people out.  But is Kamala the right surrogate for that if the race is really super close?  Beto, Liz Cheney, Mayor Pete, or someone else would probably make more sense so that Kamala and Walz can keep their eyes on the prize.
5. Kamala is losing by so much that it doesn't matter if she campaigns or not, and this is some sort of investment in trying to energize the Texas Democrats with the idea of flipping Texas in the future.  I don't buy that, and if she's actually losing by a ton, I don't think she'd even help with that.  If that's the case, they'd be better off sending Obama.

I guess the other options are 6) something I'm not thinking of, 7) it's some kind of meaningless thing that doesn't say anything, or 8) it's just a mistake by the Harris campaign.  I think 7 and 8 are basically the same thing because if there's no reason to go, she's wasting a precious campaign day on a race that neither person can win.  It's the same kind of stupid mistake Trump is making with his rallies in California and New York.

Anyone have any perspective?

I'll add this to my watch later playlist.  I need as much positive juice as possible.

Apparently, the focus of the Houston event will be abortion.  Which obviously is a huge topic, but I don't think it really answers the question.  An abortion rally with Kamala helps Allred, but does it really help Kamala?  A rally in Texas gives her some national publicity which could maybe help her in the battleground states, but I assume it makes more sense for Allred to have an event with Kamala in Michigan than anything else.

But I think Kamala going to Texas should limit some of the fears that Michigan or Wisconsin is in danger.  If it was, I assume she'd be there instead, Allred be d*mned.

So the consensus among people seems to be that Kamala going to Texas is about attention and bringing the national discourse to abortion.  Which, I get.  But early voting has been female-leading so far, and the campaign has been fairly focused on abortion.  Maybe this turns out some pro-choice people, but I feel like it's pretty late in the game to be doing that.  I don't know the registration rules in the battleground states, but I think it's too late to register in Texas and voting has already started.

I really, really want to believe that the internals just look really good.

I watched both videos.  Definitely calming.  We should two weeks from today, I would think.  But wouldn't it be amazing if we even knew on election night?

I'd like to believe this, but ominous vagaries, even if they're in favour of my preferences, are still just ominous vagaries.

Given how self-incriminating Trump is already, I'm not optimistic there is any bombshell left to be had. Bombshells for Trump have become background noise, unfortunately.

I read that.  On behalf of the daughter of the donor, I hope the story isn't true.  If the story is true, I obviously hope that my fellow Americans realize that maybe Trump isn't the innocent man people somehow believe that he is, and they reject him on election day.

I just don't have a whole lot of faith in that.  The true MAGA folks will think it's fake no matter who verifies it, and I think a lot of Trump voters know that he's a criminal and a monster and just don't care.  I've been disheartened by a lot of people saying "look, I know he's not a good person and I know he's done bad things, but I think he's going to fix the economy" or whatever.  And so I don't think anything, including him killing someone on Fifth Avenue, is going to cause them to switch.

Now.  If it is true.  And if it gets released.  And if its believable and corroborated and people believe it....I don't see how it doesn't tip the election enough to win it for Harris.  Because it just wouldn't take that many people not voting for him (set aside anyone switching to her) for her to win.  If the polls are to believed, this election is essentially a coinflip and it doesn't take much for a coinflip to go from heads to tails.

But, God Almighty, I hope this man loses and we can soon forget about him.

I agree with some of this and I definitely agree with the pessimism, but I don't know if it's fair to say "the Trump vote will not care" because there have been things that have convinced people to leave Trump that previously voted for him.  There are a substantial number of Republicans that are going to vote for her, and that's why even the early vote stuff may not matter.  People that switched to her almost certainly didn't switch their registrations.  I mean Texas doesn't have party registration, but I voted in the Republican primary (to vote against Trump) and so I'm technically a Republican if you look at the data.

I agree that MAGA won't care.  But whatever percentage of the Trump vote that isn't MAGA (and hasn't already voted) is available.  If he did kill someone or come out against Jesus or he admitted that he's paid for a bunch of abortions or whatever that would matter.  If he dropped an N-bomb or came out and said how much he loves Hilter (instead of it being second hand), people wouldn't vote for him.  And if the polls are right, a small fraction of his voters in the right states would absolutely make a difference.

Non-MAGA Trump voters are making the wrong decision in my head, but I do think they have a breaking point.  It just depends on where it is.  I don't think most people care about the economy enough to vote for a murderer or a Nazi or a pedophile.

I'm scared, Greg.

I haven't lost hope... but sometimes, hope just fills me with fear because I know how much it will hurt if that hope is proven false.

And my spare room is currently filled with my mother's dialysis supplies and I cannot find the air mattress, so I am not sure I can offer Rob and his wife and kids a place to stay if he moves to Canada.

But it doesn't matter. My fear and hope won't change anything. There's only one thing that ever makes a difference.

Back to work.

Stephen A Smith went on Hannity last night, and I think he might've actually been one of Kamala's best surrogates even though he doesn't particularly like her.

- He's a black Republican who said he would've voted for any Republican but Trump
- He tore Trump apart
- He out Hannityed Hannity

I think he spoke to a segment of the Fox News audience that thinks of themselves as conservative/Republican and is uncomfortable with Trump.  I think someone speaking emphatically about those same issues might influence some people.  Enough to make a difference?  Probably not.  But maybe.

Very generous but unnecessary.  If we have to flee the country, we will be able to take care of ourselves.

He said a bunch of times that he would've voted for basically any Republican other than Trump.  I did a little more research and he's never openly come out in favor of either party and says he is a registered Independent.  He says he has voted Democrat a lot in the past, but he's also been pretty equally critical of both parties.

Either way, he did God's work last night on Hannity, and I think his "I would've voted for any other Republican" probably endeared him to the standard Fox News viewer that doesn't know any better than I did.  I can say pretty safely that he's probably one of the few people that's fairly trustworthy who's going to go on Fox News and let Republicans know that it's okay not to vote for Trump.

I'm also cautiously optimistic.  I'm not as confident as I was for Biden but I feel like the chances are greater than 50/50.  I just really have trouble understanding the demographics of this race.  She's winning all women, all college educated, she's regained a lot of the minority support that Biden had.  She's winning a decent number of registered Republicans (although those could be intermingled with the college educated and the women and even some of the minorities).  Trump isn't pulling similar number of registered Democrats.

How is this race 50/50 (even nationally....allegedly) when Trump is literally only winning among uneducated white people?

I also think there will be some people that will tell pollsters they're voting for Trump but will actually vote for Kamala.  Wives of Trump supporters.  It's just going to be impossible to know until Election Day.  It could either be a landslide for Kamala, a landslide for Trump (if polling error is like 2020), or a really close race.  At this point, I'm more worried that Trump supporters are going to destroy legitimate Kamala votes than that she won't get enough votes.

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So the Puerto Rico stuff.  It gained a ton of traction online, and I wonder if that traction ends up doing anything.  Puerto Ricans are mad, and there are Puerto Ricans everywhere.  My question is:

1. Are the people that are mad already Kamala voters?
2. Are there any Trump voters who are mad enough to switch?
3. If there are people that are mad that aren't yet registered, is there time in the state they're in to get registered?

Like in Texas, we have a ton of Puerto Ricans but if they aren't registered, their anger gets us nowhere because it's too late to register.  In some of the swing states, there's same-day registration but not all.  And I don't know what percentage of registered Puerto Ricans in swing states were already voting for Harris.

There's also the issue of the fact that Trump himself didn't say it, even if it was at his rally, and that Trump can fairly easily distance from it.  But I think there's a decent chance that this sways at least some people.  And again, every vote hypothetically could make a difference.

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There's new rumors about the bombshell report that will "end" the Trump campaign.  Now it's rumored to have something to do with the Butler assassination attempt.  At this point, it either needs to be released in the next day or so I don't think it matters.  It might not matter anyway

I don't know if any of that is true.  The first two are, at least, steps in the right direction.  The last one is just wrong.  Inflation has gone down immensely from just a couple of years ago, and it's back to pre-pandemic levels.  The problem is that people don't understand that lowering inflation doesn't mean lower prices.  It means slowing down the increase of prices.  If you want prices to go down to 2019 levels, you need deflation which can be just as bad (or worse) than inflation.

Republicans benefit from both sides, though.  They complain about prices when Democrats are in charge, and Republican voters happily pay higher prices when Republicans in charge.  They care about spending when Democrats are in charge, and Republican voters don't care if spending goes up when Republicans are in charge.  Basically, there's no accountability because Republican voters don't care about lower prices or government spending or abortion or any of it.  They just care about winning.  That's why the Republican party has no platform.

Crowd sizes are a tricky metric.  Trump had much bigger crowd sizes than Biden (which was strategic on both sides).  Harris certainly has more crowd enthusiasm right now.  Trump's less-than-full rallies might not be an indication of less enthusiasm as opposed to just a lack of interest in seeing Trump give the same speech the millionth time.  People lined up around the block to see Star Wars in 1977, but if your local cinema decided to show Star Wars today, you'd probably only get a handful of people.  It doesn't mean people don't love Star Wars any more or less than they did in 1977....but they've seen it.

Now there's undoubtedly an enthusiasm around Kamala which we wouldn't have gotten from Biden.  And I'm hoping the early vote numbers are indicative of that.  I hope that for every 5 GOP-registered votes, at least one of them is for her.  I hope for every five independent votes, three or four are for her.  But really that's all we can do right now is hope.

I'm sorta at peace about it.  In a week we'll know whether the polls were right or which direction they were wrong.  I'm excited about the chance that she wins, but I'm also nervous about her losing.  I watched the Carville video you shared, and I'm with him.  I'm certain she'll win but only in a "I just don't believe that people want fascism" kind of way more than anything quantitative. 

And I know that there's still going to be a lot of work to do after Tuesday if she wins, and so I'm just trying to enjoy every day before that all starts up.

Here's some more information that I find comforting

https://unrollnow.com/status/1851339376196010260

I'd be shocked if she went on Rogan before Election Day.  I think she should've done it too, but I think the impact would be pretty small at this point.

I don't even know if it's that complicated.  I think they've been lied to enough that they just believe it.  It's The Truman Show or Room (not The Room).  People accept the reality that's in front of them.  And if you're in an echo chamber where the only facts you see come, essentially, from Donald Trump...then you accept what he says.  Remember that a lot of these people live in communities where everyone votes for Trump.  Their families vote for Trump.  Online, they've built their online world to only accept right-leaning opinions.

So when your world looks like that, how else would you think?  Literally every opinion they see is pro-Trump and literally every opinion they see is anti-Democrat.  In their whole sample size, no one supports Harris.  And yet you want to tell them that in these faraway cities with their billionaires and super-crime and godlessness, they're all voting for some woman?  When literally no one I know even likes her or respects her?  When Trump has PROOF that it's all rigged?

I think it's as simple as that.  Lies that are spoken and reinforced a million times over that become the truth.

Yeah that's too many two-syllable words for Trump.

I've been reading some analysis from people on the ground.  It was from a Democratic guy on the ground, but he said in Wisconsin everything but the polling leans towards Harris.  That the Republicans don't really have a ground game or even much of an appearance of a ground game.  Heard similar things in Arizona and a couple other swing states.  The only thing that's pointing toward a potential Trump victory is a) the polling and b) the idea that the polling isn't leaning to the Republicans enough.

Early voting is obviously leaning Democrat but it's also really leaning female.  So either the women of this country are going to save us or are currently stabbing us in the back (and shooting themselves in the foot).  I think Democrats need to keep doing what they're doing but I also think Democrats need to surprise a bit on Election Day. 

And hoping beyond hope that Democrats are doing whatever they can to prepare for anything the MAGA base is going to try and to do disrupt voting or destroy votes.

I feel fairly confident that we got this, but I don't know how to incorporate illegal activities into my analysis.  So I'm just going to hope that someone else is considering all the ways this could go wrong.

And it still won't make his supporters any less devoted.

WTF, right? Honestly, human beings can be such a joke, except I'm not laughing.

I've already detailed the various reasons which people will vote for Trump.  Most have valid reasons, whether we decide to give them credence or not.  Democrats have allow themselves to generate messages focused on identity politics and away from economics, healthcare, and schooling.  Joe Biden has been asleep at the wheel on a variety of policies. 

The other day I mentioned that Kansas poll.  Well Kamala is flattening Trump in the heavily white/college Omaha Nebraska district.  And even whackier poll, from the incredibly well respected Ann Selzer, in Iowa.  Kamala LEADS by three points!!!  With huge leads on women and seniors.  Selzer has been remarkably accurate in Iowa general elections, she has never been off more than 5 points. 

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story … 354033007/

Harrison Ford endorses a candidate for the first time, speaking about the legion of Republican Generals and former Trump officials who are now against him.

https://twitter.com/CalltoActivism/stat … 2942118267

If that were true, he wouldn't have one of the worst approval ratings in US history.  Biden's handling of the Southern border from the moment the courts ended the pandemic emergency rule keeping migrants out, has been absolutely pitiful.  He only began to "shut things down" late this summer, well over two years late.  It made no sense. 

Now you can dispute that, but you're arguing with the wrong person.  Biden's age, physical presence, and constant gaffes have literally frightened or frustrated voters away from him.  He has had a number of successes, but his inability to communicate those have rendered them and his candidacy moot.  Even Kamala gave up talking them up and switched to an anti-Trump message.  Biden is radioactive, he cannot speak without blurting out absurdities.