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Yeah, I think it's a breath of fresh air.  I think as long as Harris continues to be confident, avoids a major gaffe, and picks a solid VP (Kelly or Shapiro - NOT Mayor Pete as much as I like him), she might be able to ride a wave of positive enthusiasm before anyone even realizes they like her or not.

Because I think she's likeable.  I think she sounds genuine and speaks like a leader.  And while the Democrats only have a short time to build her up, the Republicans only have a short time to tear her down.  Sure, they can tie her to Biden but a lot of those people were voting Trump anyway.  Harris doesn't need to take too many Trump voters away - she mainly just needs to claim more undecideds than him.  They are attacking her on the border, but that was something they were already hammering Biden on.  Who is going to be convinced not to vote for her on the border who wasn't already not voting for Biden on the border.

I'm just saying, other than racist or sexist dog whistles, what can they attack her on that they haven't already attacked Biden on?  Meanwhile, Republicans are now offended that people are talking about Trump's age.  Now he's the old and crazy one.  Harris is young and NEW.

It's still an uphill climb, but it feels so much better today than it did a week ago.

This is why I wasn't comfortable with Biden staying in the race.  I think his *ceiling* was 270-268.  And that could've been impacted by nonsense happening on election day, mail-in ballots being stolen/destroyed, or any number of things.  And that's before the election would be called and Trump's real work would begin.

I think Harris has a higher ceiling.  Maybe she picks Kelly and they can win Arizona.  Or Cooper and win North Carolina.  Either way, she needs to win the entire blue wall and then pick up at least one or two sun belt states so Trump can flip a state post-election (thanks to all the MAGA people he's put in state legislatures, secretaries of state, etc, and the judiciary) and the result can still stand.  I believe Trump can absolutely figure out a way to flip one state, but I think he'd struggle to flip much more than that even with the infrastructure he has. 

But like 2020, this needs to be not only a win but a convincing-enough win that Trump can't get it overturned.  And I think Harris can do that - I wasn't convinced Biden could.

Really hoping Harris can energize young voters, voters of color, and third party voters.

I think if Trump withdraws from the debate, it helps Harris.  I think MAGA would love it and represent it as "refusing to debate an illegitimate candidate" or something, but I think independents, undecideds, and even Trump-leaners would like to see them debate.  If he pulls out for anything other than a very legitimate reason, he's going to look like a coward who was only willing to debate an 82-year-old man.

Is that enough to hurt him electorally?  I don't know.  But it would definitely ding him.

I think Harris would be extremely well prepared and could talk circles around Trump, but Trump debates aren't really debates.  So I don't really see a lot of negative for Trump deciding to debate her.  The format doesn't allow him to ramble, and that's the biggest potentially negative thing that could happen to him in a debate.  But he didn't debate anyone in the primary, and I don't think he'll debate her.

I mean, it won't all translate for everyone.  Some people might think that Harris somehow did something to cause inflation or make the border less safe, but I think most people know that the VP isn't in charge of policy.  If they can convince people that Harris is/was tough on crime, that could translate to the border.  I think she should be able to separate herself from Biden's decision making since they're two people and he was her boss.  Now that she's the boss (potentially), she'd do XYZ differently.  We know people can make that separation because there were people that voted for Obama that now hate Biden. 

Yeah, I'm not saying it will work, but that's a common complaint against her.  I just don't know how Republicans use "she's too tough on crime" as a criticism while also saying she's letting murderers and rapists into the country at the border.  Is she tough on crime or isn't she?  I would think that they would just leave that alone, but I read this morning  that Trump's team is going to try and attack her left flank on that issue.  We'll see if it works.

I'm not saying that she can't be attacked.  Trump has taken down more seasoned politicians.  If there are people that are Republicans, they probably won't vote for her.  If there are people that are unhappy with the direction of the country, they probably won't vote for her.  If they don't like her race or gender, they probably won't vote for her.

But the people that were simply worried about Biden will probably give her a chance.  The people that don't like Biden or Trump will probably give her a chance.  The people that were voting for RFK will probably give her a chance.  Anyone that was voting for Biden will give her a chance.  Those are more than enough votes for her to win the electoral college.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics … ngNewsSerp

One reason to like the switch - Moscow Mike is against it.

I mean Harris is basically polling identical to Biden now.  I think some people won't vote for Harris, but I think there are a lot of people that wouldn't vote for Biden.

It's not a stutter.  He looks old.  He sounds old.  And people have lost confidence that he can do the job, not just right now but in four years.  People don't generally look or act younger as time goes on, and this isn't a race about who can do the job right now.

I'm not saying Biden can't win, but he really slipped up on the biggest stage.  And the polling has really dipped in the last month.  I don't know how he was going to convince people that he's not old.  None of the work he did was turning things around, and we were nearing the point of no return.

Harris is young and energetic.  She's a woman who can possibly energize women in the election during an election where women are already at the forefront.  And if she can pick a strong VP, it could be a really good ticket.  There are a bunch of "double haters" of Trump and Biden, and now the Democrats have an alternative for them both.

I'm not discouraged at all.  I'm nervous, but I think we're in better shape right now than we were this morning.  I'm going to be fascinated to see how the polls move now that it's not a hypothetical that Harris will run.

I appreciate that.  I'm hoping against hope that the Democrats can win.  Whether it be Biden or Harris or Newsom or Hillary Clinton or Michelle Obama or Jimmy Carter or Mark Cuban or whoever.  But since it will take six months minimum to immigrate to Canada in the worst case scenario, I would need to live under a second Trump presidency for a decent amount of time.  If that happens, I have to hope that either Trump doesn't actively want to destroy the country or that enough people don't want him to destroy the country to stop him.

Too many Republicans that I'd think are smart enough are going along with him and downplaying the seriousness of a threat Trump plays.  Maybe they're right.  I don't know.  We did survive one Trump presidency.  We can survive another as long as it doesn't go worse than the first.

Just hoping he loses.

I love Toronto.  I love Vancouver.  I think if we moved it might be to Calgary.  Both my wife's job and my job have an office there, and we vacationed in Banff last summer.  I haven't actually looked at pricing but when I talked to a Canadian immigration lawyer, that's the place I picked for simplicity's sake.

Biden's campaign came out and admitted that there has been "slippage" in support but that he's staying in the race.  If that's the case, I hope he knows something I don't know.  That the money will come back if he holds out to the convention.  Or that he has a high enough floor of support that he could have a bunch of gaffes and the race could still be won.  Or that the sun belt isn't as bad as it looks.

If Biden's ceiling is 270-268, he needs to drop out.  I would have a heart attack in the three months before the election if it's 270-268 because I'm much more concerned with Trump winning the presidency through nefarious means than winning it outright.  I think anything less than the margin of victory in 2020 would scare me to death, and that needs to be a realistic outcome.

I don't disagree, but you can see how Harris may not want to have her only chance at president be a 4-month rushed campaign where she needs to come back in the polls.  If she loses, her political career is probably over and the Democrats will pick someone else.  If Biden doesn't drop out, she's at least in the frontrunner conversation in 2028.  If she's passed over and the new ticket loses, she might still have a shot a la Biden in 2020.

I know the Democrats need her for the money, but what if she doesn't want to run?

Some people were down on the Boys season 4.  I thought it was pretty good.  I think the politics of it was a little too heavy handed, and I guess I'm not 100% sure how this world works.  Some quick spoilers:

S
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So I don't know if the show has done a good job of explaining why people are against Supes.  I get why they'd be against Vought, especially after it was revealed that they experimented on children.  But are people actually against all superheroes?  Even if they're against the Seven, there are hundreds/thousands of superheroes.  Even if all of them are secretly bad, are all of them publicly bad?  The Boys know the truth but does the whole country, and half the country is cool with superheroes actively killing people and doing no real good deeds?

I know they're going for some sort of political metaphor, but unless I forgot something (and I've only watched each season once), I'm shocked that a superhero hasn't already been elected president.  I'm also shocked that people would be upset / offended by a supe president - you'd think we'd want our presidents to be bulletproof.

I think that's the part that was the most confusing to me.

But other than that, it was a lot of fun.

It's not optimal, but four months is an eternity nowadays.  Four months ago, Nikki Haley was still in the race.  The supreme court decided on Trump and the 14th amendment.  Dune 2 had just come out.  Ghostbusters Frozen Empire hadn't come out.  Those things all feel like forever ago.

There's enough time for the media to introduce Harris and for people to get to know her so much they get sick of her.

In four months in 2015, Trump went from unannounced to ahead in most of the polls.  I think there's time.  I just don't know if they have enough to work with to really turn her around from a publicity standpoint.  They'd really need to have a great plan, and these are Democrats we're talking about.

I would like this to be the excuse Biden takes to drop out, but I don't know.  If he didn't drop out with the Parkinsons rumors, I don't think he'd drop out for this.

I haven't seen many polls with Harris doing better than Biden.  I wonder if the party could put together a giant fundraiser to seed a Shapiro/Whitmer ticket.  Shapiro is super popular in Pennsylvania, and Whitmer could help win Michigan.  If you get those two, you just need Wisconsin and NE-2 to win.  If you could launch with a huge $20-30 million event and then try to get as much free advertising as possible.  I don't know what they'd need to do to get Harris on board, but I still think if Biden resigned and Harris got to be president, even if for only a few months, it could work?

I really don't understand why Biden is staying in.  It's either ego or the poll numbers for basically anyone else are worse than we thought.  Just like Trump has a ceiling, I think Biden has a floor because enough people don't want to see Trump back in office.  But I don't understand being resigned to *maybe* winning 270-268 when a different candidate could possibly do better in the Sun Belt.  I don't know if Biden has any chance of winning any of those states.  Maybe Kamala Harris can't either, but I think we know that Biden probably can't.

Biden's negatives can't be fixed, and they can only get worse.  The more public he is, the more gaffes he makes (intentionally or not), and one of them could make things so much worse.  Why not go with someone who might have more negatives but they're negatives that can be spun into positives?  Harris has less experience but Biden could campaign for her and talk about how she's ready.  Her prosecutor background could convince undecideds that she could be tough on crime or immigration.  She could reach women in an election that abortion will be front and center on.  Her (relative) youth could help her with younger voters as she might have some sort of idea what the Internet is.  She may even own AirPods!  I know she doesn't do much better with black voters, but maybe it'd help.

Biden isn't going to get any younger.  He isn't going to look any less frail.  I know he can do the job, and I understand that he's super sharp in private meetings.  But whether he's the best person for the job doesn't matter when it's a popularity contest.

I still think he can win.  I just don't know why they don't just make a move.  There could be a lot of enthusiasm around a Harris VP pick, and it could be from a state like Pennsylvania (*ahem* pick Shapiro *ahem*) that could get them hugely important electoral votes.  I know VP picks don't usually matter, but it could in a close election.  Especially if both sides of the ticket would be incredibly unknown for the lateness in the campaign.

I love Biden, and I think he's done a great job.  But I truly wish he hadn't decided to run again.

Trump does not care about his supporters.  I have no doubt that he'd be willing to sacrifice as many of them as possible to get the power he wants and to stay out of jail.

That's what is so heartbreaking in some ways about the Trump candidacy and presidency.  I do not think that the majority of MAGA (and certainly not the majority of Trump voters) want Trump to be a dictator.  I don't think they want Russia to take over Europe or crash the economy with an insane tariff idea. 

Minus the true racists in the movement, I think they're just hardworking people who finally are heard/seen by a politician.  I think they truly believe that Trump loves the country and wants to make the country great.  I think these people aren't racist or autocratic.  I think they've been tricked into thinking that we're giving away something that should be theirs to someone else (immigrants, foreigners in Ukraine or Gaza, or to enemies like China).  I think they feel cheated, lied to, and taken advantage of.

Some of that might be based on something inherently racist (that the country was "great" during a time when it was only great for white people) or incorrect (that the United States should be a Christian nation), but I think they want the country to be great.  Even some of their ideas are altruistic.  They believe Trump's "peace through strength" mantra, and they think this would prevent wars around the world.

At the end of the day, I don't think these people are bad people, and I think it's tragic that people keep dying in the name of Trump.  I think they want to reclaim something that they feel like they lost, and I think they want to be able to put food on their tables.  I think they're struggling, and they feel like only one person is listening to them.

And Trump is taking advantage of them.  He's lying to them.  He's using them.  And he's getting them killed.  If there was some sort of version of Trump that was true to what MAGA believed, I think it would be great.  Someone who is putting the working class first.  Someone who truly understood the economy and how to make it prosper.  Someone who could work with world leaders to bring in an era of peace not just in America but in the rest of the world.

But Trump isn't that guy.  And one day they will understand that, and it will be heartbreaking.

I guess I have the same question I had before, Grizzlor.  Do you think this "sympathy" factor would be the same if Biden had been the one who was shot?  Because if it's going to go one way, it would have to also go the other way.

I'm also not sure that MAGA could get any more engaged.  If Trump is on the ballot, 100% of MAGA was going to show up.  Shooting, no shooting.  Whether it's against Biden or Harris or Newsom or even someone else they actually like.  It's why Trump has had such a reliable floor since 2016 and why Republicans have struggled in every election that Trump isn't in.  It's also why I wonder if Trumpism would've died Saturday if Trump had been killed.  These guys don't even really identify with Republicans - they're constantly talking about how much they don't like Republicans or Republican leadership.  MTG constantly talks about the "Uniparty" because MAGA thinks of both parties as being the same.  There isn't a clear successor to MAGA when Trump dies, and I don't think any of the possible successors can carry the number of people that he can.  DeSantis can't.  Cruz can't.  Hawley can't.  Taylor Greene can't.  Neither of Trump's kids have a fraction of Trump's charisma.

These people love Trump, and even if he'd been a martyr, there'd be no way for that to translate to political gain for Republicans.  Trump would probably win write-in elections for mayorships in Mississippi but then someone else would actually be there.  There'd be violence but that would eventually die down.

My point is that I don't know who's switching from Biden to Trump because Trump got shot.  Now if Trump does soften his messaging and moves to a more peaceful and hopeful message, I think that could change things.  People don't like Trump because he's divisive and narcissistic and angry and mean.  If he can shift his message to one of hope and prosperity and peace or whatever, that could win over some independents.  My wife commented this morning that maybe a brush with death will get him to mellow out a little bit.

Someone on the Atlantic wrote this article about how the image of Trump standing up defiantly in the face of political violence is actually something that could be inspirational.  And if I thought Trump meant half the things that he said, there's probably some things to like about him.  He's actually not far right on many issues.  He's moderating the stance of abortion for the entire party.  If he was actually about world peace and standing up to bullies or any of his foreign policy stuff, none of that is particularly bad.  Even his connection with the working class should be a good thing.  I think enacting policies that help the working class is good.

The problem is that I don't think Trump actually means any of it.  He doesn't want world peace - he wants unlimited power and to hand power to other despots like him.  I don't think he understands enough about economics to help the working class, and even if he did, I think he despises the working class.  I don't think he'd help them if he could.  Every policy he has is only because it's good for him politically.  If it would get him power, he'd instantly shift his stance on abortion or trade or anything.  The only policies I think he truly believes in are the immigration ones because I don't think he likes people of color or Muslims.

But if he can convince people that he actually loves America (I don't think he does) or that he's actually interested in unity or peace (I don't think he is), I think that might shift the electorate.  But I don't think there are people that are going to have enough sympathy for Trump to switch their vote for him come November.  If he's back to being the same guy, even if it's just later this week, any sympathy non-MAGA would've had for him will be gone by the time his ear heals.

I could be wrong, but I think Biden still has everyone's vote here if that's where things end up.  Maybe even ireactions, who cannot legally vote.

The problem with Biden now is that the optics are all wrong.  He has to completely change the narrative, and I just don't know if that's possible.  He did great for the majority of the press conference, but he flubbed a couple lines and that's the story.  In some ways, it's super unfair to Biden.  In others, the guy still got to be president.  Only 45 other guys can say that in 200+ years.  If he steps aside (I won't say quit) now or if he loses in November, he got four years at this job, and he did a great job.  He can hold his head high, and I guarantee that if he wants to stay involved, they're going to let him stay involved.

Is it unfair that he had to wait so long and time caught up to him?  Absolutely.  Is he going to fight as hard as he can to keep it?  Absolutely.  But I'm really hoping he makes the pragmatic decision.  The job may not be finished and he may want to be the one to finish it, but there are other ways to help.  If it's Harris and she wins, she's going to need a ton of help and Biden can help her.  Rocky got to old to fight, but he was able to help Adonis Creed.  Time moves on, and age catches up with everyone.

If he runs, I just really hope he wins.  If he's going to be stubborn and push through and loses, that's where he'll damage his legacy.

I wish this was handled differently.  First off, I wish that Biden had chosen not to run in the first place.  He had talked about being a bridge president in the first campaign, and I wish he'd stuck to that.  Unity a year ago would've been preferable to this.  Second, I wish Biden would realize which way the wind is blowing and gracefully bow out.  I maintain that LBJ isn't seen as some sort of quitter for not running for another term.  When you look at LBJ's speech, I think it makes so much sense for Biden - he can focus on spending his last six months in office completing the work he'd started on and he can let Harris (or whoever) campaign.

I understand why it all has gone down the way that it did.  Harris was polling worse than Biden, and they didn't do much of anything to get her more popular or well known.  I think she was clearly chosen as a VP only with no intention of running her as a presidential candidate.  But when you look at the polling, I think people are getting more comfortable with her.  And while there are absolutely sexist/racist people who will vote for Trump over her because she's a woman, I would assume that these are people who would've voted for Trump anyway.  And with four months to shine a positive light on her (and only four months for Republicans to try and tear her down), I think there's a decent chance they can build her up.

I don't want Biden to feel like he's a failure.  I want him to be able to ride into the sunset as a hero and as a winner.  I would absolutely love for him to stay in the race and beat Trump.  But I'm just worried that too much of that has eroded.  And even if he can convince the Democratic establishment, he might not be able to convince enough voters.  And in an election with this little margin for error and this much at stake, I don't think we can take that chance.

Again, I'm not abandoning Biden.  I'm just trying to be pragmatic.  We need to win.  And at 9:55 central on July 11, I feel like Biden doesn't have the best chance to win.  I don't think I know 100% that Harris can win, but I think her negatives are a) spinnable and b) improvable.  I don't know if Biden's aren't.  I still think the best route is someone like Newsom (who can both realistically distance himself from the Biden administration while also promising to continue what Biden started), but I understand the monetary reasons not to do it.

For me, the best case scenario is for Biden to resign, let Kamala focus on being president for six months, and have someone else run.  I think that's the best of both worlds.  We get a female president, Harris gets something to drop out, and the Democrats gets a fresh/young/lively ticket that can realistically claim to be able to forge a new path.  In that case, Trump can't campaign about how Biden did such a bad job because (new ticket) can claim they're making their own changes.  Trump can't complain about age because he'd be the old guy.  He'd be the establishment guy.  He'd be the known variable.  I think it would totally throw him on his back foot.

And yeah, there'd only be 4 months to build up the Democratic ticket, but I think in today's environment, that might actually be a good thing.  Half the reason people hate these guys is that they're known.  I think if Newsom or Whitmer or Shapiro or whoever got on a debate as a fresh face, it would feel like such a breath of fresh air.  It doesn't take long for people to form an initial opinion on them, and I think the one negative they'd have (lack of experience) might be easily spun into a positive.

If it's Biden, I support him.  But I just feel like there's a better option at this point.  I think the damage is done and the path is over.  Trump can be beaten.  We can do this.  It isn't too late.

It just may be too late for Biden.  Who, again, I really really like.

The problem is...do we really need to run our own candidate with a mental decline?  If the Democrats ran Harris or Newsom or Whitmer or whoever, there wouldn't even be this issue.  In that case, age becomes a huge benefit for the campaign instead of an issue that people can pick apart.

I think too many Democrats are worried that Biden dropping out would be a sign of weakness.  For me, it's a sign of strength.  Biden would be stepping down for the good of the country.  He'd be giving up power for the good of the country.  That's an incredible act of patriotism, and I think most people in the country would take it that way.  Even if Trump and MAGA made fun of him for quitting, I assume that would backfire on them.

Harris would continue what Biden is doing, whether it's now or in 2028, so it wouldn't be a drastic shift in policy.  I do think that someone like Newsom or Whitmer could offer a bit of separation from the Biden administration, which could be spun in a good direction for independents that don't think the country is going in the right direction.

I just think being stubborn is so dangerous.  I think hoping that Americans either forget that Biden is old or start accepting that him being slower and frailer is okay is just foolhardy.  Maybe it would happen on a limited scale, but I think the horse is out of the barn.  Biden can still win and I pray he does, but he better be right about being the best candidate to win.  Because if he's not, whatever happens is Biden's fault.

I do think the media covers Trump in an unbalanced way.  Whenever I hear sound bytes from Trump rallies or speeches, they never include any of the nonsense that Trump spews.  I think, on some level, the media wants to cover the race "normally" as if it were Clinton vs Dole or something.  The problem is that it's not a normal race - Trump is showing a different kind of mental decline, but he's obviously struggling himself.

Here's the problem - Trump held it together on the national stage.  Biden didn't.  Every network could run a story on Trump's mental decline, and it would still be overshadowed by Biden's performance on the debate.  As an example, Biden's interview on ABC blew away the competition with 8 million viewers.  But 51 million viewers saw the debate.  How many different interviews would Biden have had to give to equal the same number of eyeballs that saw his rough performance?

And Trump lied a ton, but he didn't go off on a drunk uncle rant.  If he had, I guarantee that would've been the story, and you might've even seen some Republicans wondering if Trump should be replaced.

But that's not what happened so that's not the story.  And, again, some of this is on Biden.  He's talked for years about how Trump is going to destroy America if he becomes president again.  So you have a situation where the poll numbers aren't looking great nationally or in battleground states, and Democrats are starting to panic. 

It would be like if your local fire department put tons of ads on TV about how fires can cause household explosions.  Everywhere you look, someone was telling you that if you see a fire, your house is about to explode.  And then when you have a small housefire and you call the fire department, they show up without any water.  Then they laugh and say "don't worry, I'll come back with water in a little bit.  It'll be okay.  Trust me" 

So are you going to show up with water next time?  Can I trust you?  And why are you suddenly not worried about explosions?  Isn't there someone else I can call to handle this if you can't?

Maybe people will come back to Biden.  Maybe the polls are wrong across the board.  Maybe Biden's totally fine and can convince people he's totally fine.  Maybe he'll still win.  I really don't know.  But my house is on fire and I just want to feel comfortable that someone's going to bring some water before my house explodes.

I actually had the same thought on the clip that QuinnSlidr posted.  Biden was attacking the media and using hyperbole ("I did more than any president ever").  Those are things out of Trump's playbook.  Now maybe Biden's campaign thinks he needs to be a little more cocky and confident.  Maybe that's an intentional pivot.  I don't know.

I just wish the defiance made sense to me.  More polls are coming out that show that Harris might actually do better than Biden.  Michelle Obama was crushing Trump.  Heck, even HILLARY was beating Trump in a poll.  I think people are itching for a change.  And I want to believe that if Biden truly believed that there was a better candidate that could beat Trump, he'd step aside.

But I'm starting to worry that Biden truly believes that he's the only one who can beat Trump and that he's going to take us down with him.

I think Democrats will still be engaged because Trump is running.  I think enthusiasm might have dampened, but that will disappear as it gets closer.  There are very few human beings that I wouldn't vote for above Donald Trump, and that includes other MAGA republicans.  I maintain that Trump himself is more dangerous than most other people in the party so even if someone I really hate was running against him (like Ted Cruz), I'd vote for them over Trump.  MAGA Republicans are opportunistic cowards who are willing to do or say anything to stay in power, but I don't think they'd actively destroy the country.  Trump would.  I think there are exceptions, but I really do believe that Trump is a truly unique villain.

So whether it's Biden or Harris or Newsom or Whitmer or whoever, I think Democrats will show up and be enthusiastic because of who they're up against.  What I'm worried about is independents and Republicans that hate Trump.  We need all of them to vote for Biden too, and a lot of apolitical people I talk to hate both of these candidates.  I think if the Democrats ran someone that they'd never heard of, the freshness of a new person might be enough for them to vote for them.

I still maintain that's why Kennedy is still polling around the same.  I think, when pressed, people are willing to whatever the alternative is, no matter who that is.

I think in that plan, the VP needs to be Whitmer or Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania.  I think it should be someone who can bring in votes from a swing state.  Any swing state they can get "for free" they should take.  I don't think America is ready for a double female ticket (they're barely ready for one woman on the ticket) so I guess I'd pick Shapiro or Raphael Warnock.

I do wonder why the polling for non-Biden candidates is so much worse.  This was the results of a recent Ipsos poll (July 1-2)

- Pritzker is losing by 6
- Whtimer is losing by 5
- Beshear is losing by 4
- Harris is losing by 1
- Biden is tied

Biden is the highest rated candidate of that group.  What's the reason?  Well here are the vote numbers:

Pritzker 34 Trump 40
Whitmer 36 Trump 41
Beshear 36 Trump 40
Harris 42 Trump 43
Biden 40 Trump 40

So for simplicity, let's say this was 100 people.  If we use Trump/Biden as the base, then six people went from Biden to undecided when it was Pritzker.  Four went from Biden to undecided for Beshear.  Three went from Biden to undecided when it was Whitmer (and perhaps one undecided went to Trump since he gained a vote.  For Harris, everyone seemed to stay on their side but two extra people went to her and three went to Trump. 

Trump's support basically stayed the same.  For the two women, he gained a vote or two, but that was it.  So Trump's support was pretty flat.  So are those 4-6 people that didn't vote for Pritzker/Whitmer/Beshear just not sure who those people are and can't commit?  I assume if they ran for 4-5 months, those people would find out who the nominee is and go home to the Democratic ticket.

I'm not sure why more people are decided on Harris/Trump than Biden/Trump, but that seems to be the case.

Now here's the weird one.  Michelle Obama *crushes* Trump 50-39.  She's the only one who beats him, and she does it decisively.

Now Michelle Obama isn't running.  But it's a really interesting stat because what is she providing that the others aren't?  I would say she's as well known as Biden and Trump - is it name recognition?  She's probably more well known than Harris, and I assume she's more liked than her.  But is there something else at play?  And is that "something else" that can be harnessed in a different candidate?

That's what I assume the Democrats need to figure out.  What does Michelle Obama have that caused a 10% bump in her vote share compared to Biden (and a one percent DROP for Trump), and do they have anyone else that has whatever that is?

I'll have to listen to that.  I want to be clear, again, that I really like Joe Biden.  I remember watching him in 2008 and sorta liking what he had to say.  If I wanted him off the ticket, it has nothing to do with Joe and everything to do with winning.  Age catches up with everyone, and sometimes people can be really good at something and it can still be time for them to move on.  Especially in something as public as politics.

I have no doubt that Joe will live four more years and that he has a lot to give the country.  But he doesn't have to be president for that to happen.  If Kamala Harris or someone else wins the presidency in 2024 for the Democrats, Joe Biden would be a great advisor.  Just like Barack Obama has been a great advisor to Joe. 

I'm sure Joe believes in himself and thinks he can do it.  I'm sure he's willing to gamble that he's got one more win in him.  Which is fine...but he just needs to understand that a lot is riding on this election.  Donald Trump won in 2016, perhaps, because the Democratic nominee was handed the nomination.  Ego, I believe, played a part in that.  I'm just hoping Trump doesn't win again because he ran against the person who wanted it the most and not the one who would have the best chance at winning.

(The last couple sentences was, very much, me editorializing.)

I usually scan the polls that came in on 538 (I know some of them are partisan but it's still an interesting exercise).  As I said, Biden had taken the lead nationally, in Wisconsin, and in Michigan.  He was basically tied in Pennsylvania, and he was making gains in Nevada.  Now, all that progress is gone and Trump has taken a 1%+ lead in all the swing states.  It all happened right after the debate so it looks like a direct result of that.

To be fair, they also did a poll against every possible Democrat that could replace Biden and Trump was winning against all of them too.

As I said, these polling averages can be fickle and maybe all these polls are worthless.  But it's frustrating that we were basically ready for Biden to take the lead (maybe for good?) and the debate performance appears to have knocked back all the progress.  Maybe speeches like tonight's will help.  Maybe the Supreme Court coming to Trump's aid will help.

I really don't know.  But I wish I felt as good as I did last week.

The post-debate polling is bad.  Biden went from a lead nationally, in Michigan, and in Wisconsin to losing all three.  Any gains he had in the other swing states is also gone.

None of this needs to be permanent, but it's really bad right as things were starting to turn in his favor.  Its certainly not over, and things could easily swing in the other direction, but they can no longer count on the courts to do any more damage to Trump.  They can only count on the country continuing to approve or Trump shedding support.  That's it.

Whatever they do, they need to do it quickly.  If they go with someone else, they are going to need time to familiarize themselves with the American public.  I think a lot of the Biden support transfers immediately to the new guy, but I'm sure there will be people that are hesitant.  But the people that aren't supporting Biden because he's too old aren't going to be convinced by anything.  The economy could significantly improve, immigration could be improved substantially, the wars in Gaza and Ukraine could end, etc and it's not going to matter.  This isn't based on results, it's based on vibes.  And that disadvantage immediately disappears with any of the people that would be running if Biden stepped down.

The coalition would be Democrats, anti-Trumpers, people happy with how the country is doing, and people that thought Biden was too old.  Even if those people are a small part of the electorate, it could make more than enough difference.

I support Biden no matter what.  If he wants to run, he's got my vote.  I'm just very nervous that Trump will win, wreck the country, continue to stack the courts with insanity, and more...just because Biden doesn't want to step down.  If Biden can win, Biden should run.  If Biden can't win, Biden shouldn't allow the country to be destroyed because of his ego.  I'm also nervous because we don't just need Trump to lose - we need Trump to lose convincingly enough that he can't steal this thing.  270-268 is stealable and that feels like Biden's ceiling at this point.

Biden's legacy is cemented.  He beat Trump, turned the economy around, ended Covid, etc.  He was a great VP.  He was a great congressman.  I don't think he has anything left to prove, and I don't think anything he could do from 2025 to 2028 would help or hurt his legacy.  If he walks away now, he can keep his head high.

I guess my questions is why Biden looked so tired and weak on debate night and then twelve hours later looked like a completely different person.  Did they give him cold medicine that made him drowsy?  Did he get different cold medicine the next day that amped him up?

If Biden will not step aside, is there some way to replace Harris without causing an issue?  I wonder if the American public would be happier with Biden if they liked his VP and thought he could be president.

Another thought experiment.  If Biden replaced Harris with Raphael Warnock or Gretchen Whitmer, would that ease people's concerns?  Could it help Biden get Georgia or Michigan, respectively?  Maybe Biden could promise Harris a spot on the Supreme Court?  Attorney General?  I don't know what it would take for Harris to gracefully take a demotion, but if Biden won't step down and people are upset with Biden for his age, I feel like VP is the only lever left to pull.

*******

What's frustrating about this is that I don't think people seem all that upset with Biden's policies.  It seems to be mostly Biden's age, something Biden has no control over.  Biden wouldn't have to retire from politics if she stepped down, just like Bill Clinton and Barack Obama are still active in politics.  Is this ego, or is this a career politician going with his gut that he's the only one that can win?

Because this election is winnable with a candidate that 72% of people think is too old to run.  If they pivot to Warnock or Newsom or Whitmer, I don't know how many people that are currently voting for Biden are going to be upset.  There's going to be less name recognition, but that may be the reason why someone like RFK is getting any votes at all.  "Anyone but Trump or Biden" could mean any other candidate the Democrats choose.

So you'd get 1) people that hate Trump and 2) people that hate Trump and Biden, and then it would just be a matter of getting people that like Biden.  I think you just have the candidate you pick campaign with Biden and promise to stay on the same track.

The more I think about it, the risk of moving away from Biden goes away.  My concern is for the Democratic Party to generate a ticket that no one voted for, but I'm guessing people aren't really going to care if that ticket wins.

I think one thing to remember is that Trump didn't actually have a great debate either.  Not only did he lie, but he lied about things that are pretty easily verified.  That might've turned off voters in the same way that Biden being old did.  In fact, like I said before, those are two very similar things.  People know Biden is old and *looks and sounds* old.  People know Trump is a liar.  Which one bothers people more?

When Trump said that "everyone wanted Roe v Wade overturned" that's both a lie and one that's easily known by the majority of Americans, including conservatives, that supported Roe before and after Dobbs.  When he said that babies are being killed after birth, that's a common sense thing that most people wouldn't believe.

Trump could easily say that "illegal immigration is bad" or "the border is not as secure as it should be" and people would probably agree with him.  The problem is that he says that millions of people are coming across the border and are killing people in ways that we could've never even considered in our worst nightmares, and people can easily verify if that's true.  The population of Arizona is 7.4 million people.  People in Arizona might notice if 1 out of 7 people were illegal immigrants.

It would be like if Biden said that climate change is a problem and that 2/3 of the country is now uninhabitable.  Or that most coastal states are now underwater.  It's a real problem that a lot of people agree with, but he's now taken it to such an insane level that he'd probably start to lose people.

So if people care about the lies, that's one thing.  Biden may be old but he's also president right now.  A Biden presidency isn't a hypothetical.  It's happening right now.  And if things keep going okay, I think people will be more okay with more of it.

*****

I say this as someone who's now made a few donations to Biden, but the idea of a Newsom/Whitmer ticket really comforted me after the debate.  The fiery Biden we saw recently has calmed me down a bit, but we need to keep seeing it.  I think the Democrats need to think long and hard about whether they should go all in with Biden.  I'm voting for the Democratic ticket no matter what (I'd vote for Hunter Biden and any running mate) and I'll enthusiastically support Biden if he's the guy.

But as someone who wants to win at (almost) any cost, I think it's prudent to consider alternatives.  Especially after post-debate polls start cementing.  I love Joe, and I want him to succeed.  But this is bigger than Joe or his ego or his pride.

Yeah, I'm hoping that's the case.  We need him to be this version.  Both as president and in the second debate.

Sent him some money

Well, yeah.  This, forever.  Nothing about last night could've changed that.  Biden has my vote, and I'll enthusiastically vote for him.  One thing that made me sad a little bit is that Biden from 8-12 years ago would've wiped the floor with Trump last night.  He wouldn't have let Trump get away with any of that BS.  But he's lost his fastball.  Pitchers can pitch for a decade after they lose their fastball, but sometimes, people need their fastball.

I'm with Biden until the end.  I would just feel a little better if there was someone else running.  As I said, that person couldn't just be anyone, and that isn't happening in either way.  So it doesn't really matter either way.

Oh for sure (and I referenced that).  But I don't think him lying is good enough for Biden to score points.  We know Trump lies, and a decent amount of the voter base doesn't care.  The ones that do may not know he's lying.  Without a true live fact check, there's no way for viewers to know what's true and what isn't.  I assume well-educated people know that no states allow post-birth abortions, but I don't know if everyone knows that.  When Trump says garbage about the successes he's had, people may not know better.

What Biden needed was for Trump to not be a liar but to be crazy.  He seems to go on these weird rambling stories when he does rallies, and it turns people off (even MAGA people).  A lot of times, MAGA people leave his rallies early because they're tired of hearing him ramble on about sharks and showers.  Debates aren't really a good format to expose people to that, but it's the best chance that people have to see what a lunatic he is.  I was truly hoping he'd say some bizarre nonsense because I think that's the best way to peel off people from Trump.  They might even know he's a liar, but they need to also know that he's crazy.

There's another debate.  If Biden does well in the next one, this one won't matter.

It's going pretty bad so far.  Biden looks old and Trump has been staying on point and not acting like a lunatic yet.

Still lots of time but I'm not loving it so far.

*Please note that my fundamental understanding of Clark Kent / Superman is partially created by the thoughts of an accused rapist.  And I guess partially by a guy we all know who ended up being an extremist.*

To me, Clark Kent shouldn't give up on people.  Clark never gave up on Lex in Smallville even when Lex showed his true colors.  Clark wasn't naive about Lex - I don't think Lex would ever surprise Clark.  But I think Clark still had hope that his friend would return some day.  I think this is one of Clark's superpowers in Smallville - he has the ability to see the good in people and he refuses to give up on anyone, even in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

Cavill's Clark seems a lot more distant.  He doesn't seem to have any friends at all.  He has Lois, but that seems like his only friend.  He doesn't seem like he's friends with Perry.  He's never shown outside of work with any of his colleagues.  I guess Bruce is the closest thing to a male friend, and they barely have any scenes together.  So when Clark goes evil in the "Knightmare" scenario, there's more evidence that he's just really mad ("She was my world and you took her from me") than any sort of mind control.  It's less Anti-Life Equation and more Anakin Skywalker.

In fact, Cavill's Superman reminds me of Anakin.  He really only cares about one thing (Padme/Lois) and as soon as  he loses that, he goes full evil.  He's heroic, but he doesn't seem to be in it for any particular reason.

And that's my thing with Cavill.  I think he's a really good actor, and he does a lot of heroic things but look at him in the scenes where he's saving people.  He looks distant, cold, uncaring, alien.  I feel like Welling's Clark genuinely wanted to help people.  I think he would have fun being Superman.  I think he would smile as he was doing it.  Even if he was concerned, I think he'd put on a brave face.

A lot of people point to Cavill's Superman killing Zod, but I don't think that's a problem.  I can't remember all 217 episodes of Smallville, but I know most of the Monsters of the Week ended up dead.  All of the season-long villains ended up dead.  Even some of Clark's friends ended up dead.  Smallville's Clark wasn't perfect or a saint, but I think he tried.  If the Battle of Metropolis had happened to Smallville's Clark, I feel like he would've either been seriously injured trying to save innocents, or he would've tirelessly worked to clean the city up until everything was done.

There's no evidence that Clark helped after the city was basically destroyed.  The city is cleaned up so someone must have done it, but I can't imagine that Bruce would've been so angry if Clark had spent weeks super-building the city back up.  The movies imply that Clark just sorta left when it was over (although Clark does stick around after the bombing in the Capitol so maybe that's not what happened - either way it's just something that Snyder didn't seem to care about).

So I'm okay with Cavill killing Zod.  My issues with Cavill are:

- Cavill doesn't really seem like he cares about people or saving them.  He does it, but it seems like it's a job, not a calling.  I think his view is the same as Snyder's - this is dangerous work and people are going to die (and that's okay).  I don't think Smallville's Clark would think that way.

- Cavill seems more alien than human.  I think Smallville's Clark embraced his humanity, even when he was exploring his alien origins.  I think Clark would think of himself as human, even after he found out he wasn't.  Just like an immigrant might consider himself to be American, even if he was born elsewhere or had foreign-born parents.  I think Cavill would consider himself to be a Kryptonian living on Earth.  And I think this connects to the first point.  I think Smallville Clark would think of saving fellow human beings.  Cavill Clark would be saving people that are either "under his protection" or, worse, inferior beings.

I will say that I also don't think Smallville's Clark would've been so adversarial against Bruce.  Bruce is undoubtedly an idiot in BVS because he does almost not detective work.  I think an intelligent Bruce would've found out who Superman was and would've gone back to Smallville to do some research.  BvS Bruce turns around when he finds out about Clark's mom, but I think Bruce should've *interviewed* Clark's mom long before a fight.

Likewise, I don't think Smallville's Clark would've been so adversarial.  There would be no reason to.  Clark doesn't need to intimidate Bruce or destroy the Batmobile or threaten him.  Clark knows that Bruce knows how powerful he is.  And since Smallville Clark wouldn't give up on Bruce, Smallville Clark would always come from a place of diplomacy.  He would've been talking the whole time.

Please note that this is all based off memory of Smallville (which I haven't watched since it came off the air) and Man of Steel (which I haven't seen since it came out).  I'm essentially writing off Clark's characterization from BvS (which I haven't seen since it came out) or Justice League (either version) because Clark is barely in it.  Maybe there are tons of examples of Smallville Clark acting like Cavill Clark.  But I know there aren't many versions of Cavill Clark acting like Smallville Clark.

I'm interested in your response as well.  Especially since I would be willing to bet you remember the actual Smallville Clark better than my headcanon, which could be being overly generous to Welling.