American Politics: Discuss and Debate (Page 42 of 57)

By the way, this is being reported by FOX (Faux) News. When FOX News starts deriding Trump (Hitler), you know it's bad for him:

New presidential rankings place Obama in top 10, Reagan and Trump below Biden

https://www.foxnews.com/us/new-presiden … elow-biden

A new ranking of presidents by a group of self-styled experts determined that Abraham Lincoln is America's greatest president, while Donald Trump ranks last.

Lincoln topped the list of presidents in the 2024 Presidential Greatness Project expert survey for the third time, following his top spot in the rankings in the 2015 and 2018 versions of the survey.

According to a release from the Presidential Greatness Project, which touts itself as the "foremost organization of social science experts in presidential politics," the 154 respondents to the survey included "current and recent members of the Presidents & Executive Politics Section of the American Political Science Association…as well as scholars who have recently published peer-reviewed academic research in key related scholarly journals or academic presses."

The respondents were asked to rank presidents on a scale of 0-100, with 0 being a failure, 50 being average and 100 being great. Rounding out the top five in the rankings were Franklin Delano Roosevelt at number two, George Washington at three, Theodore Roosevelt at four, and Thomas Jefferson at five.

Trump was ranked in last place in the survey, being ranked worse than James Buchanan at 44, Andrew Johnson at 43, Franklin Peirce at 42, and William Henry Harrison at 41.

Respondents were also tracked by their political affiliation and ideology, which the release argues did not "tend to make a major difference overall" in the rankings, though there were some outliers, mainly with recent presidents.

Ronald Reagan, George W. Bush and Trump were more likely to be ranked higher by conservatives or Republicans, with Reagan being ranked an average of 5th by Republicans respondents, Bush 19th and Trump 41st. Among Democrat respondents, Reagan was rated an average of 18th, Bush 33rd and Trump 45th.

A similar partisan divide was noticeable for Barack Obama and President Biden, who ranked an average of 6th and 13th, respectively, among Democrat respondents, and 15th and 30th by Republicans. Bill Clinton, a Democrat, was ranked higher by Republican respondents (10th) than he was by Democrats (12th).

The divide resulted in an overall ranking of 7th for Obama, 12th for Clinton, 14th for Biden, 16th for Reagan and 32nd for Bush.

"The enemy of my enemy is my friend."

**

Grizzlor said something political in the AI thread with which i wholeheartedly and totally agree:

What could a president and the House and the Senate do to break up and ban Amazon?

This YouTuber, Farron Cousins, has explained why Trump's chances of winning are doomed, but noted that Haley has the numbers to beat Biden.

It sounds like Democratic fan fiction to me, but this video helps me sleep at night.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lr98dRjx-NM&t=28s

I think this is the kind of mindset we need to stay away from.  Trump is bad in a different way than Haley is bad.  They're both bad, but one is generationally bad.  One is just bad.

Liz Cheney (who is also bad but a different kind of bad) said that true conservatives should vote for Biden because W"e Can Survive Bad Policies But Not ‘Torching the Constitution’" (https://www.mediaite.com/news/liz-chene … stitution/).  I think we need to have the same mindset, or tribalism is going to destroy us.  Everyone can't be Trump.  We can't see boogeymen in every person we disagree with.

If Trump wins, we know he's compromised to foreign powers.  He's said he wants to be a dictator.  He's shown admiration towards authoritarian leaders.  We know what he wants to do and the threat he presents.

Haley has never said any of these things.  She's spoken out against the way Trump treats Putin.  She's supported Ukraine.  She's spoken out against Trumpism and the cult of MAGA.

She'd be bad on a lot of social issues.  She'd probably be bad on the border.  But she's never shown any anti-democracy tendencies as far as I'm aware.  And if we say everyone is Trump and everyone is as bad as Trump, then we hurt our argument that Trump is a unique villain that must be defeated.  We can't use the same type of hyperbole that Trump uses to rile people up.  We need to be truthful and honest.

(If Haley has ever shown anti-democratic tendencies or spoken about wanting to be a dictator, I'm happy to be shown that).

Sure. Here you go. I think it's a mistake to think a softer voice is somehow better. It's not. Just a wolf in sheep's clothing.

https://www.salon.com/2023/02/15/despit … e_partner/

Despite attempts to distance from Trump, critics say “make no mistake: Nikki Haley is no moderate”

"The same politics of lies and division that Trump used, just in a softer voice," says Rev. Dr. William Barber II

==================================

Following former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley's launch of her 2024 presidential campaign Tuesday, progressives cautioned that while the Republican has spent years cultivating a so-called "moderate" public persona, her policy positions make it abundantly clear that as president, she would promote a right-wing agenda similar to the Trump administration, in which she served for nearly two years.

Haley, who also served as South Carolina's governor before joining the administration of former President Donald Trump in 2017, has advanced right-wing policies both domestically and abroad, and since leaving public office four years ago, has used her platform to promote "extreme hardline positions on foreign policy," wrote Daniel Larison at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.

The Republican has strived to center her response to the 2015 Mother Emanuel AME Church shooting in Charleston by a white supremacist as evidence of her moderation, including in her campaign launch video footage of the speech she gave weeks after the massacre when signing a bill to remove the Confederate flag from the grounds of the state capitol.

Progressive strategist Sawyer Hackett noted, however, that moments earlier in the video she denied that the deep history of institutional racism has contributed to persistent inequality in the United States.

"Make no mistake: Nikki Haley is no moderate," said Christina Harvey, executive director of progressive advocacy group Stand Up America. "From her support of Trump's policy of putting children in cages and the regressive reproductive health policies she pushed as governor of South Carolina to her opposition to federal voting rights legislation and her unwavering support of Donald Trump—even after he incited the January 6 insurrection—Nikki Haley has shown her true colors."

During her six years as governor of South Carolina, Haley signed anti-reproductive rights bills including one that banned abortion care after 19 weeks of pregnancy, with no exceptions for pregnancies resulting from rape or incest.

With anti-abortion rights Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis expected to also announce a run for the GOP presidential nomination, NARAL Pro-Choice America president Mini Timmaraju said the primary is already becoming "a race to the bottom."

"Whether it's serving in Donald Trump's Cabinet or signing an extreme abortion ban into law, Nikki Haley's record is chock full of red flags," said Timmaraju. "Haley's views on abortion are just as extreme as others gunning for the Republican nomination, and we look forward to working alongside our members to defeat the Republican nominee, whoever it may be."

Haley's campaign launch ad also included a claim that President Joe Biden is promoting a "socialist" agenda, which Poor People's Campaign co-chair Rev. Dr. William Barber II interpreted as an attack on those who "believe in living wages, voting rights, and healthcare for all."

During Haley's two years as U.N. ambassador under the Trump administration, she was a strong proponent of the president's so-called "zero tolerance" policy under which thousands of migrant children were separated from their parents and guardians, Trump's push to pull out of the U.N. Human Rights Council, and the administration's decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal.

Though she briefly criticized Trump for inciting the mob that attacked the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021 in an effort to stop the certification of the 2020 presidential election results, Haley soon after defended the former president and called on Democratic lawmakers to "give the man a break" as they impeached Trump for a second time.

"When we needed leaders to stand up for our democracy and our freedoms, Haley fell in line with Donald Trump, again and again," said Harvey. "That's exactly the opposite of what our country needs. Unfortunately, it doesn't make her unique. Whether the Republican nominee is Nikki Haley, Donald Trump, or someone else, there will likely be a MAGA Republican with a track record of undermining our democracy on the GOP ticket come November 2024."

At the Quincy Institute, Larison wrote that Haley's effort to cast herself as a moderating voice in the Republican Party while also defending the former president has left her "with no obvious base of support" and has likely rendered her a long-shot candidate.

"There is so little daylight between Haley's own positions and those of Trump that it will be difficult for her to criticize anything he did as president," Larison wrote. "Haley's foreign policy record is bound up with Trump's to such an extent that she will struggle to distinguish herself from him."

Barber called on voters to focus on "the main message: None of the Republicans planning on running disagree with Trump on policy."

You do realize that I just posted all the evidence anyone should need that Nikki Haley is going to do that same thing, right?

1. Anti-reproductive rights bills that she signed - a.k.a. anti-democratic.
2. Anti-keeping migrant children with their parents - a.k.a. anti-democratic.
3. Anti-Trump impeachment - a.k.a. anti-democractic.

And more.

I too, cannot stress enough in the name of Wade's Season 3 hair dye and Quinn's Season 3 highlights that the views of ireactions are not the consensus views of Sliders.TV.

Yes, it did strike me as Democratic fan fiction/wishful thinking over a more nuanced reality.

I'm going to politely disagree with the view that Haley is as bad as Trump. Nikki Haley is not the national security risk that is posed by one Donald John Trump.

Trump is in serious financial trouble. Trump owes over 400 million in financial penalties for fraud and libel; that adds up to over $1.7 billion in loans and financial penalties. While estimated to be worth 2.6 billion on paper, Trump has claimed to have $400 million in actual funds; the real number is therefore significantly lower.

His former lawyer, Michael Cohen, does not think Trump can afford to pay his $453 million in legal fines which increase with $87,000 in daily interest until Trump pays it. And to appeal, Trump has to pay the money to be held in a escrow account while he appeals the judgements. If he doesn't pay it, the court will seize his assets and sell them.

Trump will likely have to provide his assets as collateral or sell them just to appeal as few if any lenders will touch him now. Even if he somehow sells off enough real estate to pay his fines, the ongoing rental income will stop. He is barred from doing business in New York City for three years.

With his businesses crippled by the New York judgement and with few lenders being willing to go near him, Trump's $1.3 billion in business and personal debt will become unmanageable. Trump will be desperate for money.

As a re-elected president, Trump's debt would make him a national security risk. Any and every hostile power willing to pay his debts would be able to control his office, dictate his policies and acquire state secrets. Trump's debts would make him servile and compliant.

QuinnSlidr and I have basically the same politics, and Nikki Haley offends and outrages me. But Nikki Haley isn't $1.7 billion in debt. Nikki Haley isn't a delinquent debtor whom hostile powers and rogue nations can easily control by tossing her a line of credit.

Trump is now for sale to anyone who will settle what he owes. And he will take any buyer.

ireactions, Slider_Quinn21 - You both have extremely interesting analyses to ponder. I agree that crying wolf and lumping everyone into the Trump category can be dangerous.

Just so long as we're not using everything as an excuse to follow the old "lesser of two evils" argument, which I want to make sure we are not doing.

I need to think about this more in depth but so far, I believe both of you are on point.

Thank you for voting, Slider_Quinn21.

I agree with QuinnSlidr that we must never minimize the evil that Nikki Haley represents. Since 2020, I've taken the view that voting is not about choosing your standard bearer. It is about choosing your opponent.

There is a Hong Kong movie called THE LUCKY GUY (in Chinese, it's called EGG TART PRINCE) where an egg tart deliveryman runs afoul of a martial arts studio and its students who challenge him to single combat and tell him to choose his opponent. The deliveryman, a grown man, tries to choose to fight the smallest little boy in the class. It doesn't go well our egg tart man.

I have now lost track of what my point was.

Trump is seriously effed by the recent financial judgements against.  I imagine AG James will be seizing assets in the near future.  Once the court in NY completes it's official filing, which keeps being put off, because the independent observer continues to find Trump Org corruption, the clock will start ticking.  He has 30 days to file an appeal.  He won't ever pay, so there will be a protracted legal fight over those assets. 

More troubling for Don, and even worse for GOP, are the RNC's finances.  RNC and Trump PAC's are barely raising any money, and the January reports are horrendous.  His PACs are diverting every last dollar to his legal bills.  The perceived power play that seeks to replace Ronna McDaniel with Lara Trump, is specifically to directly move RNC funds to Trump's lawyers!  This not only shows how awful his campaign is going to be financed, but it's a further disaster for Republicans nationwide. 

As for Nikki, like SQ21, not a fan overall, but the biggest HA HA remains that she would likely beat Biden, and yet MAGA is too cultish and stupid to get that through their heads.  Would her policies stink?  Of course, but as I've said in the past, I can SLEEP AT NIGHT with a President Haley.  First of all, she is vehemently anti-Putin and pro-Ukraine.  Her husband is an active duty commander, as well.  Haley's plans seem to be to stay in the race all the way, and why not?  She's being backed by both GOP sources, Never Trumpers, and even Democrats, all desperate to weaken Trump.  Nikki will gain some delegates, and should Trump be a raging disaster by summer, maybe she can be in position at the convention....

It was just reported, as I'm sure many knew, that the Impeachment of Biden based on the Hunter trash, was led by a now twice arrested, Russian agent, who the FBI has announced lied to them about everything.  Will Mike Johnson continue to embarrass his party by proceeding?  Fools!!!

Today in fact, it was also reported that a MAGICIAN admitted to created the fake Biden robocalls in New Hampshire.  Who he says paid him?  An operative for the dufus Dean Phillips, one of two Democratic primary opponents.  Dean Phillips was already a joke, and this seals it. 

Recently, Rajin' Cajun James Carville put out a video whereby he says the time for questioning Joe Biden as the nominee is over, and Democrats should be fighting for him, instead of afraid of him.  I think a big part of that was a series of polls released recently that show that several perceived "replacments" from Kamala Harris to Gavin Newsome to whoever currently poll worse or the same as Biden.  While much of that is due to their NOT being the nominee, I mostly agree with him.  However, I remain on pins and needles that Biden, who maintains a robust schedule far from a golf course, can have the vigor for the actual campaign to come in the late summer and fall.

Lastly, I saw a podcast on Meidas Touch with long time Dem strategist Simon Roseberg, who remains unwavering in his belief that Biden will not only win, but win BIG.  Besides the President's achievements, Simon's primary evidence are election results, particularly from 2022 forward.  It's true, Democrats continue to outperform skeptics, and the Dobbs decision has been a big reason.  This Alabama IVF insane ruling only further damages Republicans.  The podcast was boring but I would invite a read of his blog.  Simon is not some rah rah homer, he's been very good at predicting and whatnot.

https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/trum … winning-no

Now about those polls?  Recently the Detroit Free Press released one that found that a clear majority in Michigan believe Trump is GUILTY of felony in just the Jan 6th case, which is yet to begin.  And yet, he's safely ahead of Biden in the same poll?  This makes little to no sense.  Rosenberg believes that Biden is sagging partially because Democrats have no true primary, and that at some point, the "coalition" will again reveal itself.  I HOPE SO!

One thing is for sure, polling is broken, badly.  I also saw a recent interview with Larry Sabato, LONG time pollster.  Larry said you can't count on any of it.  Used to rely on polling averages, but there's so many trash Republican fed polls in those, and the websites won't exclude them.  Simon mentions this also.  Furthermore, who are the samples taken from?  A lot come from land lines, a technology far more popular with older folks, who in turn are more likely to favor Trump.  Attempting to source cell phones and other online methods are haphazard and costly.  What I would agree with is that Trump seems to definitely have a ceiling around 46-48% nationally and in several states.  Even in the "friendly" polls to him.  Biden trails by a few, but you have often 10+ point undecided, which is quite a lot.  Obviously the hope is, as it happened in NY-3 special, that most of those go against Trump/for Biden.  The presence of a third party spoiler is now my greatest fear moving forward.

What a strange remark. If Trump doesn't pay the fines, the state of New York will simply take his assets and sell them.

Well, this isn't bankruptcy. This is a civil penalty for financial fraud, and there is no blocking asset seizure for this fine except by putting the money in an escrow account or acquiring a bond with a lender in exchange for sufficient collateral.

And a huge swath of Haley voters say they won't vote for Trump.  If they go third party, stay home, or actually vote for Biden, that's such a killer for Trump.

Of course, if that's happening:

- the polls are wrong
- most/all of the people voting for Haley are actually Democrats who are voting for Biden anyway
- there are "shy Biden voters" that are reporting something different to pollsters than what they're actually intending on doing

In 2020, the polls favored Democrats because Democrats (especially around the time of the election) were more likely to be social distancing.  And maybe it was to get social interaction or boredom or whatever, but Democrats were more likely to answer the phone, respond to a poll, etc.  Republicans were more likely to be doing something else.

In 2024, I haven't heard about anything.  People like to say that polls are broken, but polls were incredibly accurate in the midterms in 2018 and 2022.  The problem seems to be isolated to elections with Trump in them.

"Shy Trump voters" seemed to be a thing in 2020.  I wonder if "shy Biden voters" could also be a thing.  Maybe people are just embarrassed to admit they support a historically unpopular president, even if they like him overall.  I cannot imagine, under any circumstances, a Biden voter willingly telling a pollster that they will vote for Trump.  But maybe it's simply the matter of "shy Biden voters" telling a pollster that they're undecided.  Trump seems to have a ceiling of around 45% in most polls.  I guess it's also possible that Haley voters are "shy Biden voters" because they don't want to admit that they'd cross over and vote Biden.

I would love to understand it.  If the polls are truly underrepresenting Biden votes, I wouldn't be nearly as nervous.

I did read that Biden personally asked his campaign to highlight all the "crazy sh*t" that Trump says in advertising.  I think that's really important.  I think a decent chunk of the electorate that is willing to vote for Trump literally has no idea the kinds of things that he says. They're probably just comparing 2018 (things were relatively good for a lot of people) to 2022 (inflation, covid stuff hanging around, etc) and nothing else.  I don't think it would take much for a lot of those people to realize Trump's out of his mind and that things are overally pretty solid in 2024.

Yeah this morning on the Today Show, they had a couple of super short where Trump told Biden he's going to fire him.  None of the slurring or the gaffes or the mental stumbles.  If the media continues to chop up his speeches to where he sounds normal, it's going to be up to the Biden campaign to spend their massive war chest getting that message out.  At least half of the Biden ads in swing states need to be 100% clips from Trump speeches.

The collateral would be quite large on the $83 million, but I cannot even fathom for the $455+.  I read that his lawyers are currently trying to get the judge in the Carroll case to lower the bond, and I would suspect they'll "try" likewise on the other case.  Bond companies don't want property, and even less if mortgaged, they want cash/stocks/bonds.  Most all of his property, especially in New York, are highly leveraged because he is an imbusel who fails at business regularly.  I am hearing he could probably need to pay them 3% fee as well as collateral that both would exceed $10 million and $60 million, I think.  These are BIG numbers.  However, Trump could ask the appeals court in both cases to lower the bond requirement, or freeze the penalties entirely.  Somehow I doubt they'll do him any favors. 

I have no idea if he'll ever go to trial on the stolen documents case, but Trump completely admitted it's something he would, could, and should have done on Hannity last night.

https://twitter.com/highbrow_nobrow/sta … 4588687546

I don't think Elon Musk actually has that kind of money to spend. Yes, Musk owns assets that put his net worth at $200 billion, but that's in shares of his companies (Tesla, SpaceX, Twitter), and he acquires cash by using company shares as collateral to get loans; his shares increase in value which allow him to keep borrowing more money to pay his expenses. I doubt he would put up the shares to acquire a $455 million loan on someone else's behalf; he would only do that for himself.

Trump doesn't seem to have any financial aid from any billionaires right now because his lawyers are trying to get out of posting the $91 million bond for the E. Jean Carroll judgement needed to file an appeal. https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-e … al-1873668

They've offered nonsensical reasons for why Trump shouldn't have to post bond, and if Trump can't pay or secure a bond for $91 million to appeal that case, he probably can't secure the $500 million bond needed to appeal the New York judgement on his businesses either.

So far the "uncommitted" total is likely to be quite higher than usual in MI.  Idk what to even make of that, especially with Biden getting 5 out of 6 votes.

The last thing a billionaire wants to do is throw away money!  A million or two maybe, but 10 or even 60 million, no shot.  Sheldon Adelson was his last big one, he's dead.  Even the Home Depot guy is now unfriendly to Trump, and had backed Desantis.

Well, the strategy (I think) has to do with the idea that, in the case that Trump is not able to be the nominee (for whatever reason), Haley would have the inside track.  I forget what happens to Republican delegates if Trump is out, but Haley is going to be second, and she's going to have the second-most votes.  It might be worth it for her to stay in the race even if the chance is 1 in a million that Trump drops out.  But he is late 70s, in terrible shape, is under 91 felony indictments, and is widely hated.  There's a lot of ways Trump wouldn't be the nominee that wouldn't normally apply.

Supreme Court just announced they will hear Trump's bull crap immunity appeal beginning April 22.  Even if they accelerate their time table and have a judgement in a few weeks, that would push the Election DC case back to June or July.  Merrick Garland probably won't allow them to go through with it near to an election.  The Georgia case remains embroiled in the Fani Willis affair.  That leaves only the Bragg hush money case, which even if Trump loses, will get appealed immediately, and most people think it's a stupid case.  Trump has yet to pay, he's yet to see justice, and at this rate, as I said months ago, and was laughed it, very likely that will never happen.

The never-ending string puller behind Trump (Putin):

I'm sure there will be tons of campaign ads.  If Trump ever does a real debate, he'll be asked.  It doesn't matter, though, he'll wiggle out with some excuse that his people will believe.

At this point, I wouldn't count on anything impacting Trump outside of the New York trial being juicy enough to get people interested.  I think a lot of people, especially some of his Christian followers, might be turned off by some of the details coming out of that.

Well the Evangelicals aren't going to care.  They know who he is and don't care.  But Evangelicals are only about 1/3 of the Christians in the country.  A lot of voters in this country probably have no idea who Stormy Daniels is, and I'm sure a decent amount of them would have trouble voting for someone who paid hush money to a porn star he was cheating on his wife with.

If we can get the majority of voters to know who Stormy Daniels is, and if Trump is convicted, I think it might be a bridge too far for independents and even some republicans.  Again, my wife watches the news every morning, but she isn't political.  She has no idea what Trump is alleged of doing.  And she's not alone.

I was listening to a podcast and they were talking about how they're possibly going to get a jury for these Trump cases because everyone knows about it.  But everyone doesn't.  Some people actively don't pay attention to politics.  The reporter agreed that when he does "Man on the Street" type interviews, people have no idea who is running and pay no attention.  These are the voters that decide elections, and they just need to know what's happened.  And if they do, I think a lot of them will turn away from Trump.

I mean isn't the message "look around?"  Gas prices are down.  The stock market is way up.  Jobs are up.  Wages are up.  The economy is really good.  People that think the economy is bad.

Even FOX News is pushing back on the narrative that the economy is somehow terrible.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/ … r-BB1iTkcC

I guess people are allowed to be upset about how prices are higher now than they were in 2019, but 2019 was 5 years ago.  Even at normal inflation numbers, prices would be higher five years later.

I think the DC case will start if they can before the election.

So Trump has done a couple of wily things.  He suggested an August trial date for the documents case.  Even though that case should be open and shut, Cannon can really make it difficult on the prosecution, plus the fact that it's a Florida jury.  If Cannon accepts the August trial date, it could mess with the timing of the DC case.  Then Trump can either hope the documents case continues to get pushed back, or he gets a pre-election acquittal from a friendly jury.

Would've been really nice if the Supreme Court just kicked back Trump's ridiculous argument.

I'll go one further, the Supreme Court could take forever, and then make a narrow decision, and kick it BACK to the lower courts to rule again, delaying trials even further.  Cannon had no choice but to deny Trump's claim to classified documents, and other confidential FBI material.  Still hasn't ruled on the trial date. 

I've already "warned" that Trump has no designs on paying those penalties.  The lawyers will be paid by the Super PACs. 
It may sound futile, it may sound insane, he's not paying.  He will delay and post his bonds (that he'll never pay back), whatever.  Same as the criminal proceeding, his goal is to win and/or steal the election, be inaugurated, and then hit whatever entity is coming for him or his money with the Dept. of Justice.  E. Jean Carroll is already complaining she'll never see the money, and there's a good chance she won't. 

There was a NY Times/Sienna poll out yesterday, it shows Trump ahead 48-43.  The crosstabs are wild.  A clear majority of people think Trump is a criminal, and don't really favor him that much on issues.  Biden's unfavorability is monstrous, far worse than Trump's, and if it's even close to accurate, he cannot win.  That being said, I still think the sample is not realistic.  It was taken by landline/cell phone survey, and I'm increasingly skeptical of those.   The party affiliation, and demographics in the poll seems off to me, I think it's far too Republican.  Does it mean Biden is ahead?  Again, I cannot see that, given the sheer consistency in his poor standing. 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 … stabs.html

And as you've been informed, if Trump doesn't pay, his assets will simply be seized.

On the other stuff, I'm not sure, but I find your thoughts compelling.

The Supreme Court schedule has been viewed as Trump-support, conservative anti-Trump lawyer George Conway has said that the court may actually have some relevant things to add about whether or not a president can have immunity from using his office to assassinate political opponents and civilians for personal gain. Conway is a former Trumpist and very much a conservative (albeit not a non-MAGA conservative), so I take his stuff with a grain of salt, but it's interesting.

Conway on the Supreme Court's scheduling not actually being good for Trump:
https://www.newsweek.com/supreme-court- … ay-1875325

Polls are severely off, but are they off to the point where reality has a different winner than polled? I don't know, but it's very interesting. (By very interesting, I mean anxiety inducing.)

Okay so it's Biden vs Trump.

*Sigh*

*Deep Breath*

Okay.  So on paper this matchup is really no matchup at all.  One is a wannabe fascist who tried to overturn democracy and is clearly a sociopathic narcissist who doesn't have America's best interests at heart.  One is a public servant for decades who has worked to improve infrastructure, has tried to bridge the gap, and is willing to follow political norms.

The reality is that Biden is very old, acts very old, speaks very old, and has very low approval ratings.  A lot of that is the polarized nature of our politics where 50% of the nation will hate you because of what color tie you wear (its not exactly 50% but you get my point).  Some of it could be agism.  Some of it is based on things that aren't his fault (covid, supply chain stuff, worldwide inflation, etc).

But it is what it is.  In 2024, the president will be Trump or it will be Biden.  Not a third party.  Not a white knight.  Trump or Biden.

Our goal needs to be (as the anti-Trump bloc) to remind as many people as possible who Trump is.  Not "the president in 2019 when life was better."  Not the guy who the media shows 2-second sound bytes that make him seem normal.  The guy who is adamantly anti-democratic.  The guy who is a raging narcissist.  The guy who has been indicted in 91 felonies.  The one who paid a porn star to quiet her after an affair he had.  The one who asked the governor of Georgia to find him votes.  The one who worked to get the vice president hanged.  The one who tried to get Congress killed.  The one who hoarded sensitive classified documents and showed them to anyone who could get into his golf club.

Sensible Americans might vote for one of those two guys.  They won't vote for the other.

My hope is:

- the polls are critically flawed.  Primary voting has shown a massive underestimation of Biden and a massive overestimation of Trump.  If that continues (even if it's a small continuation), Biden sails to a victory.

- the more people see of Trump, the more they will remember why they didn't like him.  I'm hoping that people have forgotten why they didn't like Trump between 2016 and 2020.  I don't think there's any chance he's done anything to win people back.  So my hope is that as people start paying attention and Trump/Biden becomes a reality in people's minds, they'll remember who this dude is. And that the Biden campaign can show them the man that the media has yet to show them - a rambling, incoherent, narcissitic lunatic who can never be president again.

The game is on.  Let's do this.