Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

I've been reading The Bulwark, a site of centrist-conservative columnists (as opposed to Trumpists). They've written two articles on Trump's chances that I've found soothing -- https://thebulwark.com/the-2020-cake-is-almost-baked/ and https://thebulwark.com/newsletter-issue … ds-really/

Their columns point out: most polls have a 2 - 4 per cent margin of error. Trump's 2016 surprise victory was won with a slight edge over Clinton -- about 3.3 per cent -- which was within the range of polling error.

The Bulwark advises that people like me stop being haunted by 2016 and simply look at the objective numbers which are that Trump is grossly unpopular, Biden is 15 points ahead and was six points ahead before the pandemic, Trump has been unable to offer a coherent argument for a second term -- and also, November 3 isn't very far away.

Could there be an October surprise? No. There couldn't. At this point, Donald Trump has been oversaturating the media with his presence for 40 years. At this point, Joe Biden has been a politician for 40 years. We're not going to learn anything about them between now and November 3 that is going to change anybody's mind about them -- so the terror of a 2016 upset is residual trauma with no basis in actual reality.

That sounds good to me, so I'll move on to my next anxiety -- how will Trump exploit the 1 - 2 weeks where we won't actually know who won the election? How will Trump try to use his willingness to throw federal agents into cities to harass and tear gas civilians and, at times, city mayors? Politico says that election day and the weeks to follow could be a disaster for voting, voters and counting votes: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/ … orm-372778

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

It doesn't matter what stunt Trump pulls.  He's lost on nearly EVERY single one.  Each time he tries to go beyond the law, tries to subvert the Constitution, institutions have checked him.  The only one which has protecting him were the GOP Senate, because they wished to retain their majority.  That's over with now, he's radioactive and they are quickly running for the exits.  Plus they can't save him.  Too many of the "swing states" are governed by Democrats (WI, MI, PA).  What is he going to try to do, sue in a half dozen states if he's losing?  On what basis?  There will be parties in the streets all over the news.  Many Republican hardcore insiders have said if Trump cannot turn things around in a perceivable way in the next few weeks, he's toast.  His convention plans are now completely destroyed.  Biden and the DNC have their slate I'm sure largely worked out what they'll broadcast.  The RNC do not know what to do, or where to even have their delegates.  Charlotte and Jacksonville have both kicked them out.  I'm still not ruling out that Donny throws his hands up at some point, and says F this.

1,323 (edited by ireactions 2020-07-24 19:44:07)

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Well, I've said before -- I almost hope Trump will receive a crushing defeat in November and then refuse to leave office, refuse to vacate the White House and refuse to accept the results. I hope January 20 comes and then Trump calls for the US Army to surround the White House to prevent Biden's entry only for them to explain that they're not incurring treason charges for an ex-president and hang up on him. That he demands the Secret Service circle the Oval Office only for them to leave too except for the small detail that remains for a former president. That he forces the officer with the nuclear codes to stay only to realize all the codes have now expired. That he calls for his followers (incels, men's rights activists, Informant, Independent American Party lunatics) to protect him only to find they're disinclined to stand between Trump and the National Guard descending upon the White House.

I almost hope that Trump be yanked out from behind the Resolute Desk by guardsmen and marched out of the building and past Nancy Pelosi who doesn't even glance in his direction. https://slate.com/news-and-politics/202 … leave.html

But I don't really hope that because I really think America would do better with a peaceful transfer of power.

Barack Obama wrote:

If there's one thing we've learned as a country from moments of great crisis, it's that the spirit of looking out for one another can't be restricted to our homes, or our workplaces, or our neighborhoods, or our houses of worship.

It also has to be reflected in our national government. The kind of leadership that's guided by knowledge and experience, honesty and humility, empathy and grace -- that kind of leadership doesn't just belong in our state capitols and mayors offices.

It belongs in the White House.

Republicans occupying the White House and running the US Senate are not interested in progress. They’re interested in power. They’ve shown themselves willing to kick millions off the health insurance and eliminate preexisting condition protections for millions more. Even in the middle of this public health crisis, even as they’re willing to spend $1 trillion on tax cuts for the wealthy, they’ve given polluters unlimited power to poison our air and our water and denied the science of climate change just as they denied the science of pandemics.

So our country’s future hangs on this election, and it won’t be easy. The other side has a massive war chest. The other side has a propaganda network with little regard for the truth. On the other hand, pandemics have a way of cutting through a lot of noise and spin to remind us of what is real and what is important.

This crisis has reminded us that government matters. It’s reminded us that good government matters, that facts and science matter, that the rule of law matters. That having leaders who are informed and honest and seek to bring people together rather than drive them apart. Those kinds of leaders matter.

Right now we need Americans of goodwill to unite in a great awakening against a politics that too often has been characterized by corruption, carelessness, self dealing, disinformation, ignorance and just plain meanness. And to change that, we need Americans of all political stripes, to get involved in our politics and our public life like never before.

1,324 (edited by Grizzlor 2020-07-24 21:00:16)

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Well ol' Barry speaks the truth.  The problem for Trump is that campaign rhetoric has really been absent as a result of the pandemic, economic collapse, and BLM protests.  He can't go on the road and start babbling off to his supporters, both due to the pandemic, and more importantly, nobody will be there to listen out of shear boredom.  There will be an onslaught online, but many forums like Twitter, Reddit, Google/YouTube, etc. have been clamping down on it.  Facebook of course remains the wild west.  Then you have the Lincoln Project, Meidas Touch, RVAT, VoteVets, etc., etc. all aligned against him and the GOP.  That's not even considering what the DNC will do with ads and outreach.

Meanwhile Trump continues to make the wrong headlines, worsening his political standing with anyone who doesn't have his MAGA yard sign.  All he has are fearmongering tactics.  I've read multiple Republican accounts outside the campaign, who are flabbergasted that he has zero, repeat, zero platform for the "next four years."  What is he selling?  Shouldn't that be a top consideration?  This law and order nonsense will not work out as he hopes.  Meanwhile people's livelihoods have been decimated.  I expect a fully divisive, rambling, incoherent convention speech from him.  I expect a debate disaster where he's repeatedly fact checked and hammered on the head by Biden for "quitting on the American people." 

This guy has become the flashpoint on just about everything.  Violent protests, coronavirus surges, Russian bounties, massive unemployment, I could go on and on.  Even when he shouldn't be in the middle of it, he keeps interjecting himself, misguiding his supporters and haters to take stupid sides and go to war.  I do not see a silent majority of MAGA out there at all, MAGA is loud and whiny and belligerent.  No I believe there's a silent majority of disgust AT MAGA.  A reckoning is coming.  Again, he'll leave, trust me.  If he loses as many predict, Trump will be on the golf courses by Thanksgiving.  I'd say he'd reappear for Inauguration but he won't want to be seen with Obama.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Grizzlor wrote:

This guy has become the flashpoint on just about everything.  Violent protests, coronavirus surges, Russian bounties, massive unemployment, I could go on and on.  Even when he shouldn't be in the middle of it, he keeps interjecting himself, misguiding his supporters and haters to take stupid sides and go to war.

I agree with this.

But to be fair, I think we also inject Trump into everything.  I follow a very select few of what I consider to be reasonable people who are truly conservative/Republicans that are wary of (but not fully against or fully supportive) Trump.  I do this because I feel like I need to at least understand where these people are coming from.  In the age of "block everyone who disagrees with you", I try to at least be educated so I don't start believing that everyone agrees with me.  I think that's how radicalization happens.

And these people get frustrated because people make everything about Trump.  Does he suck?  Yes.  Is he doing a terrible job?  Yes.  But I think we too often drag him into situations that he doesn't belong.  For example, there was a widely circulated video of a great lightning strike behind the Statue of Liberty.  That quickly devolved into Trump.  Trump didn't say anything about it (or maybe he did, I don't follow him) and the event itself had nothing to do with Trump.  And the conservatives I follow were exhausted by the idea that a cool weather shot ended up getting political.  I know there's symbolism there, but I think we need to be enjoying moments that Trump isn't affecting and not making *more* things about him.

The sad thing for us is that I think Trump is actually trying.  Covid is going terrible for him, and unlike BLM, there's no political reason for him to handle it the way he is.  I just think he's in over his head and has no idea what he's doing, and he's surrounded himself with sycophants that don't know what they're doing.  So it's just this circular disaster that he can't pull his way out of.

Biden, for his faults, at least has an inkling of what he's doing.  But more importantly, he can surround himself with people who know what they're doing.  And he's capable of replacing people who don't.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Trump isn't trying. He cancelled his convention because it was clear that no one would attend. He has still taken no direct action to produce protective equipment and supplies or provide a federal response plan or to enact social distancing and use of masks. He has recommended untested drugs, suggested injecting bleach, insisted that the virus will go away on its own even when it's topped 140,000 deaths. He is unwilling to do anything about the pandemic because its mere existence reflects on him poorly and disrupts his delusional world of magical thinking.

Biden has declared that he will not pardon Trump for any crimes committed in office. It's likely that in 2021, a newly appointed attorney general will mount a series of investigations into Trump. He can be charged with criminally negligent manslaughter for his refusal to do his duty, for his insistence on claiming a global pandemic is a hoax against him. He can be charged for campaign finance law violations, for his obstruction of justice in the Mueller probe, and for treason in ignoring Russia setting bounties on American soldiers and attempting to extort Ukraine into providing opposition research on Biden. In the event of an electoral defeat, Trump's immunity to prosecution expires at noon on January 20, 2021, a day he is undoubtedly dreading.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

ireactions wrote:

Trump isn't trying. He cancelled his convention because it was clear that no one would attend. He has still taken no direct action to produce protective equipment and supplies or provide a federal response plan or to enact social distancing and use of masks. He has recommended untested drugs, suggested injecting bleach, insisted that the virus will go away on its own even when it's topped 140,000 deaths. He is unwilling to do anything about the pandemic because its mere existence reflects on him poorly and disrupts his delusional world of magical thinking.

I think he's trying.  I just don't think he knows what he's doing.  All the people in his circle don't know what they're doing.  His son-in-law is in charge of everything, and he has no qualifications.

If he didn't care, he wouldn't have worn a mask.  He wouldn't have gone through with the shutdown.  He wouldn't have done anything.  But he's done enough to show that he's trying but hasn't done nearly enough because he's confused.

In the event of an electoral defeat, Trump's immunity to prosecution expires at noon on January 20, 2021, a day he is undoubtedly dreading.

More reason to think he'll find somewhere to take asylum, and that's where he'll be election night.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Trump's entire staff and entourage are constantly tested, so his wearing a mask is more basic self preservation than any act of decency. And he knows what to do: he went into office with a pandemic playbook, pandemic training, a pandemic office, all left by an Obama administration knowing it was the next threat. He had a phone call with Biden who reminded him that presidents can mandate production of protective equipment and tests. Yet, Trump persists in not doing his job. He's only interested in the attention and notoriety of his role. He is actively trying to prevent increased testing and reporting to reduce the reported cases without regard for the infected. He tried to cut health care during this pandemic. Trump and his enablers view government public service as something to loot and have no intention of serving.

1,329 (edited by Grizzlor 2020-07-25 21:16:41)

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Trump has most certainly NOT been trying.  He made meaningless gestures like enacting the DPA on auto makers to make ventilator parts, but they were already in the process of doing so.  He tried to have everyone take hydroxychloroquine, which continues to be shot down by study after study.  He has spent billions on his vaccine Warp Speed, which won't help anyone for at least a year.  Yes, he signed the stimulus bills, okay, big deal.  Did you expect him to veto???

He insisted on reopening when the data screamed NO.  He has until last week refused to suggest people to wear masks.  He became bored of the pandemic.  He's lazy, he didn't want to hear the bad news anymore, and as Biden snipes, he "quit."  There are people who KNOW how to deal with an epidemic, but he fired or ignored them all.

Now, most countries have somewhat failed on this virus, that's obvious.  The few that continue to "succeed" are mostly in Asia, or are islands.  They have no travel going in or out, and their economies are largely stymied.  They live in a state of constant vigilance.  It might be working for the time being but it's sure as heck no fun.  Trump's administration gambled this virus would, as he said, vanish during the summer.  They figured an economy that was back up running even at 2/3 or 3/4 steam would seal his re-election.  He does not care about the casualties from this pandemic, none in the least.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

You guys are all assuming that Trump is capable in any way.  He's not.  I think he's tried and failed a ton.  I don't think he intentionally allowed any of his business ventures to fail - I think he likes to win and winning means success. 

The problem is that he is incapable.  It isn't that he's not trying.  It's that he's trying and failing.  He gets bad information from bad sources, and everyone around him has either been fired or sucks as bad as he does.  I think he absolutely wants his presidency to be a success.  He wants to be the best.  He wants to be re-elected.  He just doesn't have any idea how to do any of that.

Again, look back at the Wallace interview.  He legitimately thought that he US had the lowest mortality rate in the world.  No one who knows they're wrong would insist on bringing up the data.  If you get caught in a lie, you don't demand proof.  You move on.  He didn't which means he believed the lie.

I think he doesn't know how to work.  He doesn't know how anything works.  He doesn't understand the problem and so he has no means of fixing it.  So he asks someone dumb like Jared Kushner to fix it for him.  And they either come up with nothing or some ridiculous plan that won't work.  And then he asks Jared for a status update and Jared either lies or makes something up.  And Trump buys it.  When someone says that he's failing, someone tells him that it's fake news.

Imagine that you woke up onboard a Russian nuclear submarine.  Sirens are going off, lights are flashing, and you're all alone.  You get a message that says the submarine is speeding toward a trench and they won't be able to save you unless you turn it around.  You look around and see a bunch of buttons with characters in Russian.  You don't know what any of the buttons do.

If you die, it isn't because you weren't trying.  It will be a failure on your part, but you were way in over your head.  You might pray that someone saves you.  You might frantically press buttons hoping something will work.  You might just sit back and accept your fate. 

And maybe the radio keeps popping up and saying you're doing a great job.  Maybe a button you press turns off the sirens and the lights even though you're still in danger.  You would have no idea.  You're Trump.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

As I’ve mentioned previously, my mom watches these things and then shows them to me.  She doesn’t have a lot in life since my dad died, so I humor her; and we talk about them giving my perspective on what it means which is usually different from her.

The latest video making the rounds is linked below.  I will preface this by saying that I do not believe this man is a prophet.  I think he’s fairly well read and informed, and his dreams are his subconscious unpacking the information he’s collected into his personal logical conclusions.

https://444prophecynews.com/brace-yours … overstone/

Starting with the September dream, I think the school thing is obvious to anyone.  Schools won’t re-open or either they’ll re-open in August only to close after a few weeks due to a massive spike in virus numbers.

The part about the banks is being misinterpreted, I believe.  It could be massive inflation, but I think it’s more likely that the vision signifies implementation of negative interest rates (something Trump has been itching to do for awhile).  Negative interest rates, as their name implies, would force the banks to give out interest (bonus money) to people who take loans; and in turn, stimulate the economy by encouraging people to take out debt.  That “new” money then gets injected into the economy keeping afloat businesses, rental properties, etc.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/i … s-work.asp

But the dark side to this is that it would cause you to lose money if you have it in a savings account in a bank.  For instance, let’s say you have a million dollars in the bank, and you’ve been making ten thousand a year in interest.  With negative rates, you could now be *losing* ten thousand a year if you left it in the bank.

So what’s the man’s dream trying to say?  The roofs being ripped off banks and money flying out.  An action of force causing things to happen the bank wouldn’t want.  September could see a run on the banks as happened at the start of the Great Depression - get your money out before you have to start paying the bank to keep it there.

When this happened in the Great Depression, banks collapsed.  Banks never carry enough money to make good on everybody’s claim if everybody made their claim at the same time; so people couldn’t get their money if they were slow to act.  Their money was just gone.  Remember the bank in “It’s a Wonderful Life”?  That’s what happens except we probably now don’t have that nice, understanding community that George had then.

The November dream is also tricky.  Many are interpreting it to mean that Trump will lose, but I think it means Trump will win or claim to win.  These past few months, we’ve already seen what can happen if passionate flames are stoked, but a Trump victory would turn the dial up to eleven.  This really isn’t about Republicans and Democrats, though - it’s about both manipulating circumstances to get what they want.

The U.N. appearing in the dream?  What could they possibly show up for?  Claims of election interference with both halves of a government saying the other is illegitimate.  Couple this with massive unrest, and the request for help by one half of the US government could invite the U.N. and other countries to intervene.  The world gets to decide which side they think is legitimate and throw in their support.  It’s not an invasion - it’s aid.   Or at least it can be sold that way.

I don’t think the man who had these dreams is a prophet; but I can see how things could easily go down a dark, sideways path.  And to those who say impossible - how much of the past few months did you really think would ever happen?  Anything’s possible. Brace yourself.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

I can't speak to the banking concerns. For the election, I'd brace myself as counting will be delayed by 7 - 14 days at minimum. Trump will use that somehow.

But a lot of the terror that Trump will somehow mount a surprise resurgence to victory is, as The Bulwark pointed out, residual trauma from 2016. There was no silent majority of Trump voters in 2016, just the normal margin of polling error in key states that worked in Trump's favour. This anxiety that what happened in 2016 will happen in 2020 isn't based in objectively observing the numbers and situation which are that Biden was ahead of Trump before the failed lockdowns and is so far ahead now that even a polling error against Biden wouldn't see Trump win again. James Carville Jr. predicted a "Democratic wipeout" that I found arrogant; it now looks plausible.

The fear that Trump will lose the election, claim himself the winner and refuse to leave is also not based in the facts: the military will not take orders from a former president, his security clearances and authorizations will expire, his appointees will be dismissed and his commands will be ignored.

The real danger is that Trump will exploit the delayed results and that will somehow create a situation in his favour despite his perpetual ineptitude and incompetence.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Congresswoman Debbie Dingell says that the polls are wrong. "I don’t believe that Biden is 16 points up in Michigan; that’s a bullshit poll," says Dingell, "and it’s the same people who said Hillary had it in the bag. I worry about polling suppressing votes. I don’t want anybody to think their vote doesn’t matter. I’m seeing lots of Trump signs start to pop up. There are some very complicated issues that Trump is playing to divide this country. He is energizing his base, and we have to energize ours."

NYMag, however, argues that Dingell is voicing trauma from 2016 and not reviewing the numbers objectively, noting that the 2016 polls merely reflected how they cannot predict an outcome if the two candidates are very close with the distance between them falling into normal polling margins of error (which Clinton and Trump were). The polls weren't that wrong, but the conclusions from the polls should have been that it would be a close election, not that Hillary was certain to win because Trump is ridiculous. In addition, Biden's lead is so much larger that he wins even if the polls are wrong; voters in 2016 who disliked both candidates went or Trump or third-party. In 2020, voters who dislike both candidates are, like me, tolerating Biden. https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/07 … -2016.html

Vox, however however, observes that polling will not be able to evaluate voter turnout under pandemic conditions. https://www.vox.com/2020/7/27/21324440/ … nnsylvania

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Some polls are just plain bad, in both directions.  I would focus on things like the RCP (Real Clear Politics) average.  Take Michigan for instance, where polls range from +6 to +12, and RCP's formulated avg. is 8.4.  I ignore that number, instead check out the % for each candidate.  Biden is at 49.6, Trump is at 41.2.  Biden is literally polling at 50%, with TEN 10% of the poll undecided. 

Now, there's a margin of error and maybe some people lie to pollsters, whatever.  There's a second consideration, which is vital.  There are no moderately known 3rd party choices this year, none.  I have no clue who the Libertarian or Green Parties will nominate.  It doesn't matter, they're nobodies, similar to 2008 or 2012 most recently.  That is quite important, because that makes it even more of a binary choice.  For argument's sake, there's 7% undecided in MI avg polling.  Let's give Donny an edge 4-3, and say Biden really is favored around 52-45 there.  So you mean to tell me voter suppression, lying to pollsters, whatever, will erase a SEVEN point edge?  I'm sorry, that simply does not happen. 

Clinton's RCP lead in MI was around 4% for most of the time, but that's with a significant 3rd draw to Johnson and Stein of nearly 7%.  Hillary/3rd party's lost 4% in the final results, with Trump moving up 5.5%.  A big chunk of people either did not bother to vote for Hillary or opted at the last juncture to say eff it and voted for Trump.  The state's electoral results since 2016 have been a 180, totally against Trump/GOP.  That's one state, but there's a consistent scenario in many other states which Biden currently holds leads in. 

Trump has begun to attempt to act like he's serious about the CV-19 and whatnot.  Here's his problem.  He needs to keep that up for nearly THREE months without unleashing utter nonsense during briefings.  The cancellation of the campaign tour is obviously a big help to gaffe-prone Biden, but it's also a plus for Trump.  There's fewer chances for him to go lunatic in a speech since he's got no crowd in front of him expecting red meat.  My prediction is his convention speech is a complete meltdown of vitriol, and that's basically the end of the campaign right there, well before any debate meltdowns.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

I have no clue who the Libertarian or Green Parties will nominate

Clearly, since they've both already had their conventions and announced their candidates; Dr. Jo Jorgensen for the Libertarians and Howie Hawkins for the Greens.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Grizzlor wrote:

Biden is at 49.6, Trump is at 41.2.  Biden is literally polling at 50%, with TEN 10% of the poll undecided.

I think there are no undecideds.  In my opinion, the undecideds on these polls know exactly who they're voting for.  If anything, these are the people that are either a) Trump voters who are embarrassed to say they support Trump and b) Bernie Bros and progressives who are too stubborn to admit that they're voting Biden.

I'm sure there's a portion of the population trying to decide which cartoon character they're going to vote for, but at the end of the day, I don't think anyone that's going to vote for Trump or Biden is still deciding.  I think the vast majority of people decided four years ago and nothing that happened in the last four years will impact.

If you think I'm wrong, ask yourself what it would take for you to change your vote between now and November.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

The undecideds aren't choosing between Trump & Biden.  It's Biden or smaller party.  Or Biden or don't bother.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Trump tweeted a video of Stella Immanuel advising failed drugs and not wearing masks. Stella Immanuel has also declared that government is run by lizards and that gynaecology problems are due to women having sex with witches and demons in their dreams.

Oh, Trump. Truly the Informant of all presidents.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Slider_Quinn21 wrote:
Grizzlor wrote:

Biden is at 49.6, Trump is at 41.2.  Biden is literally polling at 50%, with TEN 10% of the poll undecided.

I think there are no undecideds.  In my opinion, the undecideds on these polls know exactly who they're voting for.  If anything, these are the people that are either a) Trump voters who are embarrassed to say they support Trump and b) Bernie Bros and progressives who are too stubborn to admit that they're voting Biden.

I'm sure there's a portion of the population trying to decide which cartoon character they're going to vote for, but at the end of the day, I don't think anyone that's going to vote for Trump or Biden is still deciding.  I think the vast majority of people decided four years ago and nothing that happened in the last four years will impact.

If you think I'm wrong, ask yourself what it would take for you to change your vote between now and November.

I agree with you, though you I actually explained that in my post!  Most undecided's just don't bother to vote at all.  It's true, some don't really want either guy, but there's a massive number who don't want Trump but they want to have another option.  Biden's campaign from day one was to be that "other guy."

pilight wrote:

The undecideds aren't choosing between Trump & Biden.  It's Biden or smaller party.  Or Biden or don't bother.

Those people simply won't vote at all.

ireactions wrote:

Trump tweeted a video of Stella Immanuel advising failed drugs and not wearing masks. Stella Immanuel has also declared that government is run by lizards and that gynaecology problems are due to women having sex with witches and demons in their dreams.

Oh, Trump. Truly the Informant of all presidents.

In the press conference he said he liked her voice, but knew nothing about her.  Aka the Col. Klink defense!

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

ireactions wrote:

...and that gynaecology problems are due to women having sex with witches and demons in their dreams.

https://www.einerd.com.br/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/lucifer-crise-nas-infinitas-terras-e1576151021989-890x464.jpg

1,341 (edited by ireactions 2020-07-29 09:09:59)

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Informant is a men's rights activist. To be accurate, he insisted that he was not a men's rights activist, but he encouraged viewership of THE RED PILL, a men's rights activist documentary about how women exploit their victimhood to take advantage of men and the documentary and supported by prominent men's rights activists like Paul Elam (who writes long essays about how women who wear revealing clothing deserve to be raped).

As much as I'd like to laugh at this and move on, it has become very clear that the men's rights activist movement and incel culture (involuntary celibates who have the same views as men's rights activists) have propelled its members towards hate crimes and murders. Two years ago, a lunatic incel named Alek Minassian rented a van and started running over pedestrians. He did it in my neighbourhood a few blocks from my home.

He murdered 10 people and injured 16 -- because apparently, he felt that the best response to not getting any dates was to attack innocents with a vehicle and get thrown in jail. He was angry because women in the world and who passed through his life were not sufficiently servile and submissive. In February, a teenaged incel and men's rights activist in my city stabbed a woman in a massage parlour for refusing to have sex with him. In May, incel and men's rights activist Armando Hernandez shot up opened fire at mall shoppers in Glendale, Arizona  and streamed it on Snapchat, angry that women wouldn't date him.

Most recently, in New Jersey, we have Roy Den Hollander, another angry, self-identified men's right activist who broke into the home of federal judge Esther Salas and shot and murdered Daniel Anderl, Salas' 20 year old son. Hollander joined the movement after his marriage to a Russian mail order bride ended in divorce. He wrote angry, semi-autobiographical novellas expressing hatred towards women who were not sufficiently subservient to him. He filed numerous lawsuits against nightclubs for ladies nights and against Columbia University for having a women's studies program. He wrote angry editorials on men's rights websites calling for men to take up arms against women. He was angry with Salas' work on one of his frivolous lawsuits and charged into her home with a gun, murdered her son and then shot himself.

My country is declaring that assaults and murders from men motivated by hatred of women will be charged and tried as acts of terrorism. The International Centre for Counter-Terrorism has identified male supremacist terrorism as a rising threat.

Now, is my old sparring partner likely to pick up a rifle and start shooting at random people because he subscribes to men's rights activist beliefs? No idea, certainly hope not -- but I want it on the record that I recognize that we had in our midst someone who supports and spreads the dogma of what is now recognized as a terrorist movement. The time to be contemptuously amused by men's rights activists is over.

It can no longer be dismissed, ignored, forgotten, set aside or go unremarked upon. It must be identified, called out, confronted and condemned. Practitioners of these violent beliefs must be noted, reported and prevented from harming others and charged if they do to make it clear that civilization will not tolerate their monstrosity.

These aren't just aggrieved men with poor social skills. These men subscribe to a belief system that inspires random and savage murder because they are being denied the ability to treat women as possessions to be taken at will. And one of them murdered people on my doorstep because women recognized his toxic personality and wisely steered clear of him.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

You know, it is interesting.  The next Federal Reserve meeting is September 15 and 16.  If negative interest rates were to be implemented, that’s the last chance before the election.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Calendar marked. Let's keep watch.

**

William Barr appeared before Congress and his obvious dedication to acting as Trump's personal fixer while claiming he serves the country when he only serves his client is outrageous.

Biden has infuriated me since I was old enough to read a newspaper, but in this recent cycle, he keeps saying what I want to hear. "The attorney general is not the president's lawyer," Biden declared. "The attorney general is the people's lawyer." Asked whether he'd pardon Trump for any crimes committed in office, Biden replied, "It's hands off completely."

**

It is foolish to have too much faith in a politician. Whether Biden makes true change or will remain a centrist isn't even really up to him; it depends on whether or not Democrats can gain a Senate majority and then eliminate the filibuster. But I read Biden's climate change plan, listened to his speech on how America can "Build Back Better" and -- it brought tears to my eyes to hear this 78 year old man declare that America can protect the planet and prosper economically and that the path to creating eco-renewing infrastructure, zero-pollution energy, ecologically sound homes and clean energy by 2035 will bring Americans good wages with a solid standard of living -- I mean, I know it's not his plan.

I know that it's the work of many, many economists and ecologists and activists. But it is a good plan because it speaks to both the need to save our world and the need to earn a living; "Build Back Better" is inspiring because it declares that both needs can be treated as one and the same; that we can save ourselves and get a satisfactory paycheque from living up to our responsibilities. It inspires me. Presenting environmental efforts as both a winning both as an ecological and an economical proposition -- yes. This is America. This is what America is supposed to be. I don't even live in America and I'm proud that this country would produce this plan.

But Biden has to win first. And he has to win huge and get the Senate on his side. I'm worried that Barr will use his federal mercenaries to interfere with the election. I'm almost certain he will.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Trump tweeted inferring that he'd delay the election.  Something the Constitution is fairly clear that he cannot do.  It's a very desperate move that shows he knows he doesn't stand much of a chance.  It's looking very bad for him in Florida, and if he loses Florida, he essentially needs to win Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.  He's losing all those states too.

Trump's best chance is to hack into the election records and physically change votes.  I don't think there was any evidence of that in 2016.  He can stifle mail in voting and throw out voter eligibility, but it would need to be on a massive scale (10-15% of the total voters in the country).  And it would need to be vastly more successful than anything he's been able to pull off in the last four years.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

White House staffers have anonymously revealed that there has been no administrative preparation to try to change the date of the election. Republican House and Senate members have either uniformly rejected the idea that Congress will attempt to change the date of the election or not been quoted in any news outlets if they do support it.

It wouldn't work to keep Trump in office anyway. Even if the election were delayed, Trump's final day of his first term would be unchanged as set by the Constitution. I can't say what's going on in that wheezing engine that's Trump's brain, but even his supposed allies are against him on this one, and without their support, it's nothing more than the whining self-pity of a man who should start thinking about where he wants to move his stuff by January 20.

That said, it's pretty funny as Biden declared that Trump was going to try to delay the election and contrive an excuse to do so and various Trump staffers called Biden crazy and delusional for saying Trump would do what he just did. But it doesn't matter. As an unnamed Biden campaign administrator said:

The President has no message, no rationale for a second term, only tactics of distraction. We have ignored it. We do not care. We see it as totally a flailing, losing campaign.

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https://www.yahoo.com/news/white-house- … 23670.html

White House scrapped a national CV-19 plan because the spring infections were primarily in blue states, and they thought they'd get away with blaming those Dem Governors for it.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Today, the White House condemned Hong Kong delaying their elections saying it "undermines the democratic processes and freedoms"

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

The United States' moral authority has become such a joke.

**

Politico asks: why aren't Republicans supporting Trump's desire to delay the election? Aren't they looking at being routed in the Senate? The answer: a delay in the election benefits them only not at all. They are preparing for elections on November 3 and have budgets, campaigns, plans and preparations that would be wasted if delayed and Trump is already dragging their poll numbers down. Siding with him at this stage wouldn't help them in their own re-election bids. In addition, even though Democrats look set to retake a Senate majority and hold a House majority, most Republicans are safe in their seats -- but might not be if they were to support a delay to the election. And even if they did support it, the Democrats hold a House majority and will never agree to pass a new law to change the date. Republicans know trying to alter the election date is a waste of time and offers no gain for them.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/ … ump-389753

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Out of the blue, Trump approved $765 million dollar loan to Kodak so they could start making ingredients for pharmaceuticals that are presently made cheaply overseas.  Stock price of course doubled, then tripled, making certain people millions.  Then it came out today that one of the drugs they will focus on....Hydroxychloroquine.  Jesus H. Christ, the corruption simply never ends.

https://www.latimes.com/business/story/ … ngredients

Worth noting: Among the drugs Kodak initially will focus on will be hydroxychloroquine, the malaria drug that Trump has repeatedly pushed as a coronavirus treatment but that scientists say can cause harm.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Well, if they're all in on a drug that doesn't treat COVID-19 while providing many painful and deadly side effects for no benefit whatsoever, they can go right ahead. Trump is probably taking a palliative dose at most.

1,351 (edited by ireactions 2020-08-02 15:11:32)

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Liberal propaganda from Salon regarding the desperation Donald Trump feels as he nears his doomed election:
https://www.salon.com/2020/08/02/donald … or-a-bang/

Look, that's fine. However, I think that there is a certain level of magical thinking in assuming that voter suppression isn't going to be a huge problem. The US Postal Service is being curtailed severely by a Trump appointee. Mail-in ballots could be declared to be stricken from the count if they arrive late assuming they even reach voters in time to be mailed back. Poll workers are in short supply; people could be too drained or unwilling to risk their health to withstand 12 - 18 hour lineups to vote in person. Those armed lunatics marching around Michigan ignored by police more concerned with unarmed black people may reassemble to intimidate voters of colour.

Slider_Quinn21 says that voter suppression works both ways. Grizzlor says that voter suppression is useless against Biden's enormous lead which would explain why Trump is flailing; he knows his tactics won't win him the White House this time. But I'm nervous about it. Barack Obama is nervous about it, saying voter suppression has been keeping him up at night. Joe Biden is nervous about it, having hired a team of 600 lawyers to battle for voter rights. But Donald Trump is clearly nervous about it too because he thinks he is losing.

**

A paywalled Washington Post article explains: Biden's 600 lawyers are working specifically on the issue of mail-in ballots being postmarked before or on the election day but arriving after the election day -- which, by US law, renders them inadmissible to be counted. And late arrival is a likely outcome with USPS' service issues. Biden's attorneys are trying to challenge the laws to allow ballots that are postmarked on time but arrive late to be included.

It looks like an uphill battle to me.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Now this is interesting. A bipartisan group, the Transition Integrity Project, has been enacting November 2020 war games, gaming out through roleplay: what are all the possible outcomes of the election? What actions might Trump take? What are the worst-case scenarios? The war games are quite disturbing, although TIP insists that the point of the exercise is to raise the worst case and try to mitigate or prepare to it, not to present predictions.

Please note that all these are hypotheticals.

This 80 person team roleplayed as Republicans and Democrats, as Trump and Biden, and played out scenarios where Biden won big or small, where Trump did the same -- and in every scenario, disaster was the end result no matter who won the election.

In the simulations, Trump's voter suppression tactics were made with the full force of his governmental powers: he attempted to stop the count of mail-in ballots, tried to seize them with a William Barr-backed force of federal agents, closed post offices to prevent delivery -- and in every scenario, both campaign teams attempted to convince each state to send rival electors citing voter suppression or fraud with Biden, in some of these war games, refusing to concede a loss due to the incomplete count.

In every case, the Biden team was reluctant and hesitant in action while the Trump team had no scruples in using military and other armed forces to secure the election in their favour. The Biden team were perpetually helpless in the face of a president who was willing to ignore the law and who, in every gaming situation, acted first to steal the election. The courts offered slow and ineffective responses to Trump trying to stop votes from being counted by force and seizure.

In numerous instances, the Trump team contested the results in individual states, leading to Congress determining where electoral votes would go and voting on party lines.

Every simulation led to political impasse and violence in the streets with armed militias claiming the election was being stolen from their hero and antifa marching for Democrats. December 14 was Trump's last date in these scenarios to alter the results.

In multiple outcomes, Trump's suppression tactics failed and Biden won the White House. But between November and January, the outgoing Trump team enacted a policy of scorched Earth: actively pardoning Trump and his family and staff for all crimes, sabotaging the census to benefit Republicans in 2022 and 2024, refusing all cooperation with the Biden transition team, deliberately deepening the pandemic and economic crisis to hobble recovery in 2021, funneling public funds to Trump businesses and doing everything possible to cripple the incoming president.

Podcast
https://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2020/07/28 … p-scenario

Summaries of the Simulations
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archi … ng/614842/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions … ts-he-won/

Rosa Brooks, group organizer wrote:

I think the exercises led to some important insights, one being that forewarned is forearmed; in all our exercises, events unfolded very quickly in the days after the election, and those who had thought in advance about the 'what ifs' were better positioned to succeed than those who had not.

Max Boot, participant wrote:

I was on Team Trump and, needless to say, we did not concede defeat. Instead, we went to work, ruthlessly and unscrupulously, utilizing every ounce of power at our disposal, to secure the 10 electoral college votes to swing the election. We focused our attention on three of the swing states that Biden won in our scenario — Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania — because, in all three, Republicans control both branches of the legislature. Normally, the governor certifies the election results, and in all three states the governor is a Democrat. But there is nothing to prevent the legislature from certifying a different election outcome.

Trump got himself impeached by trying to blackmail a foreign country into helping his reelection campaign. He will stop at nothing to avoid the stigma of being branded a “loser.” Unless Biden wins by an electoral college margin that no one can credibly dispute, our democracy may be imperiled as never before. We had better start thinking now about how we would handle such an electoral crisis.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Well, I think some of that is certainly possible, but I think we're allowing our nightmares to get the best of us.  We have to remember a couple of things that would drastically harm Trump's ability to do certain things:

1. If Trump is out, Republicans cannot help him scorch the Earth.  He may be leaving, but they aren't.  If Trump is setting fire to the Lincoln Bedroom and forcing himself to be carried out by the secret service or puts tanks in front of polling places, the Republicans will have to live with those images for decades.  It would put nearly every Republican politician in danger for the near future because it wouldn't just represent Trump - it would represent *them*.  I think that's part of the reason why Gore and Hillary didn't put up more of a fight than they did - it would reflect poorly on Democrats to do so.  So while, yes, Trump himself could potentially throw a fit, he wouldn't get support from anyone that wants to be in politics in 2021 and beyond.

That also might include his children.  If Ivanka or Don Jr. or Eric Trump want to be in politics, they can't be involved with a guy who threw the world's biggest hissy fit.  Same with Jared Kushner.  Trump can throw a temper tantrum, but it would tarnish the Trump name forever.  There's a really good chance that Trump's too narcissistic to care about his kids, but if they're fighting on it (because, again, they might want to have lives in the United States going forward), then it makes it harder.

Also remember that Trump's approval rating is hovering around 40%.  I think we like to think of Trump's MAGA people as all being indoctrinated wackos who worship him, but that number isn't anywhere near that 40%.  People support Trump because he's good for the economy or whatever - and setting fire to the country on his way out isn't going to be good for the economy.  Yes, you'd absolutely get white supremacists and evangelicals marching on behalf of Trump, but how many people is that in reality?

2. Trump's own incompetence.  People see Trump as this dictator figure who will pull off a suppression campaign with military precision.  But look at his presidency and tell me where he's shown any ability to pull that off.  He had a chance to do it in 2018 as a trial run, and the Republicans lost big.  His government, despite having control of the House and Senate for the first two years of his presidency, passed nothing.  He didn't repeal or replace Obamacare.  He didn't build a beautiful wall and Mexico didn't pay for it.  And even though it would've benefited him in every way to deal with the pandemic effectively, he botched that too.

Even when you look at his criminal enterprises, he's inefficient and sloppy.  He didn't win on Russia and Ukraine because the Democrats couldn't prove it - he won on technicalities.  He's winning on tax returns because of technicalities.

Trump doesn't know what he's doing and the people around him don't know what they're doing.  Trump might actively want to send the military to polling places, but he's just as likely to send them to the wrong polling locations or the wrong states entirely.  Nothing he's done so far has indicated that anyone in his administration is capable of pulling off a successful voter suppression organization, especially if he's lost support from the party.  And with the electoral map looking the way it is, he'll need to pull off something that he's just not capable of pulling off in my opinion.

***********

All that being said, Biden's team needs to keep up enthusiasm and do everything in his power to get people out voting early and voting in person.  There's plenty of time to organize efforts at a community level.  If people need to plan ahead, they can plan ahead.  How people can find time between the opening of early voting and the close of it.  How people can get their mail in ballots in quickly and efficiently.  There's tons of time to be working out kinks, and they know the Republican playbook.

With the map the way it is, if Trump is able to pull off a suppression campaign and win, Biden is going to have plenty of share of the blame because there's ways around everything Trump would try.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

You know what would be hilarious?  If Biden’s Mr. Magoo routine was all an act; and then in the first debate, he jumps like a lion.  Some commentators just now made me think about it - they said the bar has been set so low that Biden wouldn’t have to do much to seem okay.  Imagine if he instead jumped in and started tearing his opponent apart.

There’s a decent story in that thought - fiction or non-fiction.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Slider_Quinn21 is right. All the war game simulations where Trump exploited his presidential powers had the person roleplaying as Trump performing with the utmost competence and implacable drive matched with ruthless planning and decisiveness. But Trump is incompetent, distractable, unstrategic and indecisive: he got himself impeached in his frantic fear of Joe Biden, he couldn't respond to the pandemic effectively because it required focus and interest in something other than TV ratings, he asserts political powers he doesn't have and with three months before early voting begins, he no ideas to rebuild his broken country.

He could try to secure the ballot boxes, but he'll leave it too late or telegraph too early. He doesn't understand the electoral system well enough to manipulate it outside of sulkily insisting he won and he won't listen to people who do. He is defined by his hapless ineptitude and he has never been able to prepare and execute a plan of any kind even when someone else plans it for him. His plan was to lose in 2016, after all.

**

I don't think Biden's weirdly ineffectual performance in the Democratic debates was an act, and I'm sure no one thinks that. But after Biden won the Democratic nomination and Obama endorsed him, joined his campaign and began coaching him. Suddenly, Biden's performance shifted so severely that he seems like a different person.

Obama has clearly been working with Biden, helping him on keeping his answers short, to the point, encouraging and positive and adjusting his approach to use his current level of ability rather than his faded improvisational skills. Obama has also clearly been working with Biden on his anger issues, having him show anger in a forceful but measured fashion rather than an out of control rant towards a college kid or an auto worker. These are all the techniques that Obama used in his debate performances and when working with or around Congress, and now they're Biden's techniques.

I think this Obama-coached Biden could certainly jump like a lion on Trump.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

This probably fits in this thread; Dubya even gets a passing mention in the responses.

Jerry O’Connell in the hot seat on stepping up for Ellen DeGeneres:

https://mobile.twitter.com/MrJerryOC/st … 5951516672

I don’t know enough about the situation to form an opinion, but I do admire people who stand up for what they believe even when it isn’t popular.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Slider_Quinn21! This is Trump's plot! Oh my God, how can we stop it?

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/202 … a=taps_top

... how do you fight the post office?

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

I could Biden see whooping Trump's ass literally, no holds barred.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

TemporalFlux wrote:

This probably fits in this thread; Dubya even gets a passing mention in the responses.

Jerry O’Connell in the hot seat on stepping up for Ellen DeGeneres:

https://mobile.twitter.com/MrJerryOC/st … 5951516672

I don’t know enough about the situation to form an opinion, but I do admire people who stand up for what they believe even when it isn’t popular.

I've never missed an opportunity to take a shot at Jerry O'Connell, but right now, I can't. The post office, man! We have real problems here! Slider_Quinn21! I demand your positive predictions right now!

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

ireactions wrote:

Slider_Quinn21! This is Trump's plot! Oh my God, how can we stop it?

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/202 … a=taps_top

... how do you fight the post office?

I think that's plausible, but two things give me pause about it.  The first is that everyone assumes Trump does better than the polls think he will.  The story assumes that Trump is winning those three states before mail-in balloting - which somehow assumes that the entire difference in polling (6+ points in all three states) is made up of Democrats who will mail in their ballots.

But why are we assuming that only democrats will mail-in vote?

Republicans don't hate mail-in votes.  The story even says so.  Trump mailed in his vote.  Rich white conservatives aren't going to want to drive to a polling place in the pandemic either.  Mail-in voting is hated by Trump, but it's supported by everyone else.  So I don't see any reason to believe that mail-in votes would be much different from the rest of the votes.  They should be ~50% Biden and ~44% for Trump.

The second is the math, again.  Trump's margin of victory is *so small* - I went to 270 to win and did their default map.  Then I gave Trump those three states - Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.  He's barely ahead in Ohio so you give him that.  Even with all that, the election is essentially tied (233-232 Trump) with Arizona (Biden +3.7), Georgia (Trump +0.7), Florida (Biden +5.8), and North Carolina (Biden +2.1).  Trump would need to win 3 of those 4 states to get to 270.  And that's even in the mail-in theft scenario.

When you look at it that way, it's not a super plausible scenario.  It's a fear piece.  Now they're right if things fall exactly the way they think and things fall the way they did in 2016 and democrats are the majority of people who mail in their votes then sure.  But I think Georgia is up for grabs.  I think *Texas* is up for grabs.  I think Florida is becoming a lost cause.  I think Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are in the same boat.  All the doomsday scenarios are dependent on a close race, but this doesn't seem like it's a close race at the moment.

Yes, the race could tighten.  Yes things could change.  But on August 4, I don't think Trump's close enough for any of the "steal the election" scenarios unless he's directly changing votes.  And like we've seen, I don't think Trump is capable of pulling that off.  Sideshow Bob couldn't, and he's way smarter than Trump smile

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

That was very comforting.

And here is a floundering, flailing interview with Trump falling apart when an Australian reporter asked him basic follow-up questions about why Trump thinks he can spin the death toll as a positive:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zaaTZkq … e=youtu.be

Joe Biden wrote:

I can hardly wait to have my cognitive ability compared to the cognitive ability of the man I'm running against.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

That interview may have been the worst I've ever seen involving a Presidential candidate.  So many awful moments.  Continues to wish Epstein's madam "well," even citing her boyfriend (Epstein) died in jail.  Lunacy.  Went on to describe CV death toll as "it is what it is." 

Today he couldn't pronounce Yosemite.

https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/stat … 4762556416

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

How to beat the post office:

By the way, one of the Republican campaigns that appears to be defying Trump's war on absentee ballots is — yes! — Trump's own campaign. In fact, his operation sent out at least one email to Pennsylvania supporters urging them to get their evil absentee ballots in time for the primary election. The email even promoted a Trump-branded web page meant to assist voters with the process. No wonder the Red Hats are going indiscriminately bonkers these days, given the whiplash-inducing mixed messages. Nevertheless, it might be too late for Republican voters, at least the ones who believe every word belched by their mendacious clown dictator.

As for the rest of us, the only way to overcome DeJoy and Trump's malfeasance is to get your absentee ballots and mail them right away as soon as early voting begins, state by state. The sooner ballots are in the hands of your county board of elections, the more likely they'll be counted before Donald Trump's lawyers step in. We're not powerless here. Trump can't stop you from voting unless you wait until the last minute. Don't. The mail may be crippled by Trump's cheating and conniving, but we don't have to be caught in his trap. Not this time.

https://www.salon.com/2020/08/04/destro … -election/

1,364 (edited by Grizzlor 2020-08-04 17:40:19)

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Trump made a big stink about the Kodak deal, but it's now under (Shocking) SEC investigation, and he said "I wasn't involved in the deal."

Apparently Trump now 100% fine with mail in voting in Florida.  Why is it okay to have mail-in voting in Florida and not elsewhere? Trump: "Florida has a great Republican governor..."

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

How to beat the post office: https://lifehacker.com/how-to-make-sure … 1844606441

**

Biden has an average 6.2 point lead in Florida. Somebody's scared.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

If I were on the Biden team, I'd be doing everything I could to get people out to vote in person and early.  I don't know if if's the case everywhere, but I've voted early in every presidential election (disclaimer: I'm white).  And I'm fairly sure that, at least where I live, you can essentially vote wherever you want when you're early vote.  I've never been in a line, and I usually go after work.  So if the Biden team can send volunteers to certain places to a) make sure everything is as clean and organized as possible and 2) they get people in and out as quickly as possible.

If Trump's going to go after mail-in voting, Biden should make sure mail-in voting is as good as possible, but I'd also make sure that as few people as possible are mail-in voting.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

It always pissed me off that Informant would whitewash Trump's obvious racism, delusions and stupidity, Informant going so far to insist that what Trump described as a Muslim ban was not a Muslim ban, Informant insisting Trump had huge crowds at his inauguration. I think you have to be a truly sick and troubled mind to be incapable of seeing that your chosen standard bearer is incompetent

On the subject of incompetence: Joe Biden has been making gaffes. He has been gaffing hard. It's like Barack Obama took a week off coaching him and Biden has staggered back into his Mr. Magoo persona.

In a small gaffe on July 28, Biden welcomed reporters to the Kingswood Community Center in Wilmington, Delaware where he was delivering his speech on the Biden campaign's Build Back Better plan. Biden then remarked that he was joking; they weren't actually at Kingswood, which was a different community center, one at which he used to volunteer. He confessed that he didn't know where he was, looked down at his notes, and welcomed everyone to the William Hicks Anderson Community Center and moved on.

To an internet audience unfamiliar with the names of Wilmington community centers and to whom it made no difference, this was irrelevant and Biden dismissed it gracefully. I myself have been to four different community centers recently to drop off some donations; I couldn't name any of them. Musicians onstage will often greet the wrong city during a tour, Barack Obama mistakenly referred to Monroe, Oklahoma as Moore when promising post-Tornado aid. Biden didn't make a scene and only a few isolated news outlets seized upon it.

Then we have his two latest gaffes: interviewed by the National Association of Black Journalists and the National Association of Hispanic Journalists, Biden was asked if he'd taken a cognitive test. Biden responded with irritation to the reporter, "No, I haven't taken a test. Why the hell would I take a test? Come on, man. That's like saying to you, before you got on this program if you had taken a test were you taking cocaine or not. What do you think, huh? Are you a junkie?" https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/0 … est-391771

It's very strange that Biden, when asked this question at the end of June, had a much more capable answer: "Look, all you've got to do is watch me. And I can hardly wait to compare my cognitive capability to the cognitive capability of the man I'm running against." At the end of June, Biden showed irritation, took a moment to convey that annoyance silently -- and then responded in a forceful but controlled tone. He showed that while he was displeased, he was in control of himself and in control of the situation and his answer to the question.

This is an Obama technique that he demonstrated in 2009 when, during a speech to Congress about Obamacare where he asserted that it wouldn't cover illegal immigrants, Representative Joe Wilson shrieked, "You lie!" at Obama. Obama paused, looked sternly at Wilson and replied firmly, "That's not true."

Biden has failed to use a technique that he was able to use a month ago. When asked again about cognitive decline in recent days, Biden answered with an improvised expression of annoyance, a garbled comparison and a retort against the interviewer. Biden came off as defensive, irritable and unreasonable; cognitive decline is something any man in his 70s should be tested for. Rather than coming off as in control and confident, Biden's riposte drew attention to the issue and conveyed haphazard clumsiness and awkwardness.

From this same interview session, Biden seemed to say that Latinos were an extremely diverse culture while black people were all the same. Asked how he would engage with Latinos, Biden said: "Unlike the African American community, with notable exceptions, the Latino community is an incredibly diverse community with incredibly diverse attitudes about different things. You go to Florida, you find a very different attitude about immigration than you do in Arizona. So it's a very diverse community."

The Biden campaign later tried to clarify that Biden was referring to Latinos having diverse opinions from diverse countries of origin. But shortly after their clarification, Biden said in an online conference with the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials: "We can build a new administration that reflects the full diversity of our nation. The full diversity of the Latino communities. Now when I mean full diversity, unlike African American community, many other communities, you're from everywhere. From Europe. From the tip of South America, all the way to our border and Mexico and in the Caribbean. And different backgrounds, different ethnicities, but all Latinos" -- again, declaring (intentionally or not) that Latinos are all different but black people are all the same. https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/0 … ark-392354

It's awkward. It's clumsy. It's bad. I assume Obama had a bad taco or something and hasn't been able to coach his former VP lately.

1,368 (edited by ireactions 2020-08-07 10:11:25)

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Biden has apologized for his racist comments. https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1291540507416559617

Grandpa, here's a suggestion: be sorry before you say these things. Then don't say them.

**

Transmodiar says that Biden is senile. But looking at his polished performance last month and his meandering incompetence this month -- it looks to me like his stutter is tripping him up. He needs to come up with a new technique to manage it that suits his advanced years and the loss of the improvisational wit he had when sparring with Sarah Palin, Rudy Giuliani and Paul Ryan.

The Atlantic wrote:

A stutter does not get worse as a person ages, but trying to keep it at bay can take immense physical and mental energy. Biden talks all day to audiences both small and large.

In addition to periodically stuttering or blocking on certain sounds, he appears to intentionally not stutter by switching to an alternative word—a technique called “circumlocution”—which can yield mangled syntax.

I’ve been following practically everything he’s said for months now, and sometimes what is quickly characterized as a memory lapse is indeed a stutter. As Eric Jackson, the speech pathologist, pointed out to me, during a town hall in August Biden briefly blocked on Obama, before quickly subbing in my boss. The headlines after the event? “Biden Forgets Obama’s Name.”

Other times when Biden fudges a detail or loses his train of thought, it seems unrelated to stuttering, like he’s just making a mistake. The kind of mistake other candidates make too, though less frequently than he does.

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/ar … le/602401/

1,369 (edited by Grizzlor 2020-08-07 12:45:22)

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

First of all, his statement wasn't racist.  Blunt and dumb, but wasn't racist.  Secondly, Trump tried to seize on it which is hilarious given that black people have had a morbidity rate in this pandemic which is off the charts.  Where's the uproar when Trump declared that Biden would "hurt GOD?"

The Biden gaffe crap is no different than Hillary emails.  They're insignificant when compared to the nonstop graft from Trump.  Who by the way is in hot water in the state of NY for likely tax, insurance fraud and money laundering. 

Speaking of NY, their mail-in vote during the primary was a total disaster, in which nearly one in five ballots were tossed for lateness or mistakes.  The GOP has refused to include mail-in vote money in the stimulus, and given that Democrats seem to be more interested in vote by mail during the pandemic, this may represent a serious problem for them.  Meanwhile, some 61% of poll workers nationwide are over the age of 60, leaving many jurisdictions scrambling for replacements.  The amount of voters, largely Democrat, who are due to be disenfranchised in November is quite high.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

I think there's a difference between worrying that Biden is worse than Trump and being worried about Biden in general.  I worry about Biden in general.  I hope that whoever he picks for VP is ready to take control of the nation if that becomes necessary.  I hope the people that he picks for his cabinet are ready for heavy lifting.  Secretary of State will be huge.  Because I have serious doubts that Biden can handle all that.  And we'll need a lot handled.

But essentially nothing could happen that would make Biden sink below Biden.  Nothing Biden could do would make me less confident in a Biden 2020 administration than a Trump one.  Again, Biden could be in a coma, drooling all day, and he'd be both more qualified and better at the job of president.

That doesn't mean we shouldn't be worried.

1,371 (edited by ireactions 2020-08-07 20:09:50)

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

The whole point of Biden's campaign is that he is sensible, controlled and measured compared to Trump; when Biden is unintelligible, impulsive and reactive, he negates his own argument for office.

Transmodiar and Temporal Flux both called Obama a fake and a phony. But Transmodiar also called Trump an incompetent lunatic and TF was so appalled by Trump's nomination that he renounced the Republican party. That's the end of the spectrum I want to stand on; I don't want to be one of those pathetic cultists who call themselves patriots and yet excuse their president killing 150,000 of their countrymen (and counting). Democrats and progressives have to look at Biden just as sharply as we look at Trump and go after him just as hard.

And Biden's gaffes disturb me because Trump was sure to lose in 2016 and he still won. Democrats cannot assume that they'll win because just by the virtue of not being Trump. Their course is steady and their operation is strong, but even the best ship will sink if their captain keeps blowing holes into the hull.

But then WHY am I supporting Joe Biden anyway? Why? Here's why.

Barack Obama wrote:

I am hoping that all of you feel the same sense of urgency that I do. Whenever I campaigned, I’ve always said, “Ah, this is the most important election” -- especially, obviously, when I was on the ballot. That always feels like it’s the most important election.

This one, I’m not on the ballot, but I am pretty darn invested. We've got to make this happen. The election that’s coming up is on every level so important because what we’re going to be battling is not just a particular individual or a political party. What we’re fighting against is these long-term trends in which being selfish, being tribal, being divided, and seeing others as an enemy, that have become a stronger impulse in American life.

We’re seeing that internationally as well and it’s part of the reason why the response to this global crisis has been so anemic and spotty. It would have been bad even with the best of governments.

It has been an absolute chaotic disaster when that mindset of, "What’s in it for me and to heck with everybody else" -- when that mindset is operationalized in our government.

That’s why I am going to be spending as much time as necessary and campaigning as hard as I can for Joe Biden.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

The GOP is broken.  There's no argument there.  The problem is that the GOP is so broken that we can't see that the Democratic Party is also broken.  Maybe irreparably broken.  They had four years to come up with the best plan to beat Donald Trump.  They had four years against a corrupt, dangerous, hateable monster of a president to come up with their hero.  Four years for every Josh Lyman in the country to go out and find their version of Matt Santos.  Or if you want an example from real life, for the next Barack Obama - someone who came out of nowhere and, faults or no, inspires people.

Because Barack Obama would destroy Trump in an election even more than Biden is.

And in four years, who was the primary Democratic voice against Donald Trump?  Pelosi maybe?  Bernie?  AOC?  Schiff? 

When Trump won, I was expecting two things to happen.  Neither did (so take anything I ever say with a grain of salt).  I expected the Republicans to support Trump until it made sense for them not to, and then they could replace him with Mike Pence (someone much more palatable to them and conservatives).  "You had your chance, Donald, but you blew it" and they'd help vote him out for the guy that made more sense. 

I also expected the Democrats to get their champion.  Someone who made their name attacking Trump.  Trump would be the dragon, and 2016-2020 would be a series of jousting tournaments to determine the brave knight that would take on the dragon alone.

And....Joe Biden?

They had four years to come up with something, and they picked Obama's VP?  Broken.  In fact, if you ignore the miracle that Obama was, then the Democratic choices have been pretty uninspired since 2000.  Gore.  Uninspired.  Kerry. Uninspired.  Clinton was supposed to win in 2008 - much like 2016, the field stepped back and expected her to run away with it - Obama was the no-name guy who she was supposed to easily run over so that the race looked like an actual race.  We all know how I feel about Hillary as a candidate.

I get why Biden is the choice.  He's recognizable.  He easily recalls a better time.  He's popular with the right groups.  And I think this is key, his age actually allows him to be a simple 4-year stabilizing force so that the country can breathe again and to give experience to Mayor Pete or Andrew Yang or Kamala Harris or even AOC.

But, man, I was expecting a better gauntlet for 4 years.  I was expecting this election to have the perfect candidate.  And while I probably like Biden more than most of you, he's definitely not that.

1,373 (edited by ireactions 2020-08-08 12:13:17)

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Slider_Quinn21 wrote:

I get why Biden is the choice.  He's recognizable.  He easily recalls a better time.  He's popular with the right groups.  And I think this is key, his age actually allows him to be a simple 4-year stabilizing force so that the country can breathe again and to give experience to Mayor Pete or Andrew Yang or Kamala Harris or even AOC.

But, man, I was expecting a better gauntlet for 4 years.  I was expecting this election to have the perfect candidate.  And while I probably like Biden more than most of you, he's definitely not that.

I was expecting Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders or Andrew Yang, someone who represents the transformational values that the Democrat party supposedly seeks.

But James Carville Jr., as I've mentioned, argued that the turnout model of American elections made the Warrens, Sanders and Yangs a non-starter in this election and that Democrats needed to gamble on someone whom nobody loves but whom progressives Democrats, moderate Democrats and non-Trumpist Republicans could tolerate.

James Carville Jr. wrote:

Do we want to be an ideological cult or do we want to have a majoritarian instinct to be a majority party?

Sanders might get 280 electoral votes and win the presidency and maybe we keep the House. But there’s no chance in hell we’ll ever win the Senate with Sanders at the top of the party defining it for the public. So long as McConnell runs the Senate, it’s game over. There’s no chance we’ll change the courts, and nothing will happen, and he’ll just be sitting up there screaming in the microphone about the revolution.

We’ve got to be a majoritarian party. The urban core is not gonna get it done. What we need is power! Do you understand? That’s what this is about.

The fate of the world depends on the Democrats getting their shit together and winning in November. We have to beat Trump. The Republicans have destroyed their party and turned it into a personality cult, but if anyone thinks they can’t win, they’re out of their damn minds.

You’re not going to change the turnout model. It’s never been done and it’s not going to be done.  Eighteen percent of the country elects more than half of our senators. That’s the deal, fair or not.

The party has to have a majoritarian instinct. We’ve got to be skilled enough to excite our most important voters, African Americans, to get our own new exciting demographic out, these college-educated women, and also to cut into the margins in the more rural and small-town parts of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, places like that.

The purpose of a political party is to acquire power. All right? Without power, nothing matters. It means building coalitions to win elections. It means sometimes having to sit back and listen to what people think and framing your message accordingly.

That’s all I care about. Right now the most important thing is getting this career criminal who’s stealing everything that isn’t nailed down out of the White House. We can’t do anything for anyone if we don’t start there and then acquire more power.

Without power, you have nothing. You just have talking points.

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/10/21172111/ … le-podcast
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics … s-carville
https://hotair.com/archives/john-s-2/20 … ical-cult/

For now, the gamble is paying off. Trump has been unable to land a punch on Biden because Americans have spotted Trump's pathology: he projects. He accuses others of that which he is guilty and to a far greater extent. Biden's a pawn to the radicals of his party? What do Republicans in Congress see Trump as besides an autopen for their legislation? Biden mistreats black people? Trump actively calls for their deaths by execution or arbitrary murder from police. Biden's mind is broken? Trump fell apart during a FOX interview and then fell apart again with Axios. Biden's America isn't safe? Trump's looking at 300,000 deaths by election day that he could have prevented. Biden's rigging the election? Trump is telling people they need to get sick to vote unless they live in Republican states.

Biden is a white senior citizen centrist and largely immune to Trump's arsenal whereas Warren, Sanders and Yang would not have Biden's (apparent) invincibility against Trump. It's three months to voting and Trump seems quite helpless against the Biden wave. Even his nicknames aren't working; people might have felt contempt for "Lying Ted," "Little Marco" and "Crooked Hillary," but "Sleepy Joe" sounds like a much less exhausting prospective president for Americans.

James Carville Jr. wrote:

The purpose of a political party is to acquire power. Without power, nothing matters. Without power, you have nothing. You just have talking points.

**

Politico posted a new article about how Biden's gaffes and behaviour when he makes gaffes -- the confusing, garbled sentences, the closed eyes, the struggle to speak -- they are not cognitive decline. They are his stutter, especially when he can't speak the word he needs and uses a poor substitution. Biden refers to his stutter in past tense, but it's clearly manifesting again.

The so called Biden gaffes, mangling of certain words, looking down when he speaks—all point to an occasional, present-day struggle with stuttering. Yet Biden avoids acknowledging the stutter in the present tense. One can understand the importance of Biden’s narrative of how he overcame his stutter, but the stakes here are way too high not to acknowledge that his stutter still occasionally exists.

Issaac Bailey, who has also struggled with stuttering, wrote in Nieman Reports in March 2020 that when he watched Biden squeezing his eyes during a debate, Bailey recognized that “this type of facial tic is common to stutters who have to, in a split second, decide to struggle through a speech block or quickly substitute words on the fly.”

It can look, said Bailey, “like a moment of forgetfulness—or cognitive decline when it leads to a nonsensical-sounding sentence.” Bailey concludes with “what to the untrained eye looks like evidence of cognitive decline might not be.” Yet Trump and some journalists are making the case that such moments are evidence of Biden’s cognitive decline. Biden cannot let that false narrative continue.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/ … ose-392611

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

And now this:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/08/politics … index.html

I’ll admit there’s a kind of mad genius to it, but the strong emphasis is on “mad”.  This will not stand; Congress and the courts can’t allow it and should not allow it.  This would make irrelevant our three branch system of government; we would truly have an authoritarian government if this is allowed.

There’s also the probability that companies will hoard the cash instead of letting employees keep it:

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-p … ash-2020-8

The madness here is that it’s scorched earth.  Trump is going to turn both Democrats and Republicans in Congress against him.  Further, it’s madness to just do away with payroll taxes provided by the middle class.  How are Medicare and social security supposed to survive if you cut out a significant chunk of their revenue?  Granted - social security is going to fail anyway, but why accelerate it?  This just created a massive talking point for Democrats as they can tell the elderly that Trump is trying to take away their benefits by crashing the system; and they really won’t be lying about what he’s trying to do.

The only “genius” here is that Trump knows the orders will fail, and he just wants to be able to say he tried to help people and Congress stopped him.  Its cover for failure to make a deal.  It’s an attempt to turn a negative against him into a positive.  Will it work in his favor?  Odds are against it, in my opinion.  I think it will cause him more damage than good.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

In CIVIL WAR (the comic book crossover), Deadpool happily signs up for the Pro-Registration side so that he can be paid to capture renegade superheroes on Captain America's team. As Deadpool at the time was sharing the CABLE & DEADPOOL comic with Cable at the time, Cable comes across Deadpool in their shared base gathering up weapons to go hunting down Captain America's team (non-lethally). Deadpool chirps about how happy he is to earn money as a good guy on the right side against the Anti-Registration heroes.

Cable remarks, "Wade. You never asked me which side I'm on."

Deadpool stares at Cable blankly for a moment, almost as though wondering if this telekinetic, telepathic soldier from the future is going to be on the Pro-Registration's hit list and wondering if Deadpool's peak human strength, agility and guns can defeat a warrior who can stop bullets in mid-air.

Finally, Deadpool, hurrying out of the base, replies, "Honestly, this whole Pro-Registration versus Anti-Registration thing -- I kind of figured you're above all this."

... I kind of always thought of Temporal Flux as being above these petty political squabbles and not existing on the same level as us mere mortals.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

TemporalFlux wrote:

And now this:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/08/politics … index.html

I’ll admit there’s a kind of mad genius to it, but the strong emphasis is on “mad”.  This will not stand; Congress and the courts can’t allow it and should not allow it.  This would make irrelevant our three branch system of government; we would truly have an authoritarian government if this is allowed.

There’s also the probability that companies will hoard the cash instead of letting employees keep it:

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-p … ash-2020-8

The madness here is that it’s scorched earth.  Trump is going to turn both Democrats and Republicans in Congress against him.  Further, it’s madness to just do away with payroll taxes provided by the middle class.  How are Medicare and social security supposed to survive if you cut out a significant chunk of their revenue?  Granted - social security is going to fail anyway, but why accelerate it?  This just created a massive talking point for Democrats as they can tell the elderly that Trump is trying to take away their benefits by crashing the system; and they really won’t be lying about what he’s trying to do.

The only “genius” here is that Trump knows the orders will fail, and he just wants to be able to say he tried to help people and Congress stopped him.  Its cover for failure to make a deal.  It’s an attempt to turn a negative against him into a positive.  Will it work in his favor?  Odds are against it, in my opinion.  I think it will cause him more damage than good.

He's a grifter my man, the Sham-Wow guy, it's really that simple.  His plan is to divert billions from FEMA (with hurricane season coming) to pay for 75% of the $400 while BROKE states must pay 25% but he gave them no more aid.  His payroll tax shit is just plain putrid.  The Republicans against Trump are already preparing an ad blitz, where Trump ADMITTED he will eliminate that tax if re-elected.  That means he is FOR the abolition of Social Security!!!  Madness!

In other news, Joe Biden was out biking with secret service.  He wore a mask and no helmet (come on Joe), but another shot to the "he's too old" line from Trump, who would wipe out if he attempted to do the same. 

This story takes the cake though....

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/09/politics … index.html

White House aides reached out to South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem last year about the process of adding additional presidents to Mount Rushmore, the New York Times reported.  According to a person familiar who spoke with the Times, Noem then greeted Trump when he arrived in the state for his July Fourth celebrations at the monument with a four-foot replica of Mount Rushmore that included his face.  Noem has noted before Trump's "dream" to have his face on Mount Rushmore, the Coolidge-era sculpture that features the 60-foot-tall faces of Presidents George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Abraham Lincoln and Theodore Roosevelt.  According to a 2018 interview with Noem, the two struck up a conversation about the sculpture in the Oval Office during their first meeting, where she initially thought he was joking. "I started laughing," she said. "He wasn't laughing, so he was totally serious."

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Joe Biden has chosen Kamala Harris as his VP. I admire any man who gets excoriated by a competitor and proceeds to ask that competitor to work with him as a partner.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

I think it's the best choice.  He was backed into a corner in a bit to select a black woman (especially after his recent gaffes).  I don't know if she solidifies the black vote like Obama did (she has her own warts), but she was the best combination of actual experience and has been the vetted the hardest.

And I think Joe could've picked just about anyone and I don't think it would've done much to his votes.  People that are turned off by this pick weren't going to vote for him anyway, and people that liked the pick would've found another reason.  Sunrise, sunset.

Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

Personally, I wanted Gretchen Whitmer for the job. But -- black people are getting the crap kicked out of them right now. (Literally.) They need to see hope in the faces of their prospective leaders. And because Kamala Harris isn't a far-left figure like Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders and has been a prosecutor, she is also immune to Trump's claims that she is a socialist radical or against 'law and order.' It's a choice that doesn't in any way rock the boat that is speeding straight to the White House.

This whole election is making me realize that you can't just appeal to those who agree with you; you have to appeal to those who would grudgingly tolerate you and build a coalition. The Biden/Harris ticket is the equivalent of "Double Cross" / "Dead Man Sliding" / "Season's Greedings" / "The Prince of Slides". It's good enough for now and will ideally create some stability pave the ground for more experimental, progressive ideas assuming nobody in charge has a serious drug problem and is really only there to get Roger Daltrey and his band to perform.

The USPS situation has me very worried, but if people vote ASAP and early, they can still beat the post office.

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Re: American Politics: Discuss and Debate

As a general rule, running mates don't matter