American Politics: Discuss and Debate (Page 46 of 53)

The post-debate polling is bad.  Biden went from a lead nationally, in Michigan, and in Wisconsin to losing all three.  Any gains he had in the other swing states is also gone.

None of this needs to be permanent, but it's really bad right as things were starting to turn in his favor.  Its certainly not over, and things could easily swing in the other direction, but they can no longer count on the courts to do any more damage to Trump.  They can only count on the country continuing to approve or Trump shedding support.  That's it.

Whatever they do, they need to do it quickly.  If they go with someone else, they are going to need time to familiarize themselves with the American public.  I think a lot of the Biden support transfers immediately to the new guy, but I'm sure there will be people that are hesitant.  But the people that aren't supporting Biden because he's too old aren't going to be convinced by anything.  The economy could significantly improve, immigration could be improved substantially, the wars in Gaza and Ukraine could end, etc and it's not going to matter.  This isn't based on results, it's based on vibes.  And that disadvantage immediately disappears with any of the people that would be running if Biden stepped down.

The coalition would be Democrats, anti-Trumpers, people happy with how the country is doing, and people that thought Biden was too old.  Even if those people are a small part of the electorate, it could make more than enough difference.

I support Biden no matter what.  If he wants to run, he's got my vote.  I'm just very nervous that Trump will win, wreck the country, continue to stack the courts with insanity, and more...just because Biden doesn't want to step down.  If Biden can win, Biden should run.  If Biden can't win, Biden shouldn't allow the country to be destroyed because of his ego.  I'm also nervous because we don't just need Trump to lose - we need Trump to lose convincingly enough that he can't steal this thing.  270-268 is stealable and that feels like Biden's ceiling at this point.

Biden's legacy is cemented.  He beat Trump, turned the economy around, ended Covid, etc.  He was a great VP.  He was a great congressman.  I don't think he has anything left to prove, and I don't think anything he could do from 2025 to 2028 would help or hurt his legacy.  If he walks away now, he can keep his head high.

These are Democrats.  It will never be as smooth as that.  If Biden steps aside as nominee they'll go into the convention without one and sort it out there.

Well, there is certainly nothing wrong with President Biden tonight too. However they prepped was not the right call and was not the right way to prep this time around. Cold or not, I have to wonder if their prepping methods are to blame on some level.

I usually scan the polls that came in on 538 (I know some of them are partisan but it's still an interesting exercise).  As I said, Biden had taken the lead nationally, in Wisconsin, and in Michigan.  He was basically tied in Pennsylvania, and he was making gains in Nevada.  Now, all that progress is gone and Trump has taken a 1%+ lead in all the swing states.  It all happened right after the debate so it looks like a direct result of that.

To be fair, they also did a poll against every possible Democrat that could replace Biden and Trump was winning against all of them too.

As I said, these polling averages can be fickle and maybe all these polls are worthless.  But it's frustrating that we were basically ready for Biden to take the lead (maybe for good?) and the debate performance appears to have knocked back all the progress.  Maybe speeches like tonight's will help.  Maybe the Supreme Court coming to Trump's aid will help.

I really don't know.  But I wish I felt as good as I did last week.

A lot of people I respect said in 2016 that the presidency was not really that powerful, that American institutions would hold Trump back, that the world could survive a bad president. That's no longer true. The Supreme Court has completely overturned and broken any checks and balances. The president is now above the law.

https://www.salon.com/2024/07/01/legal- … be-a-king/

A lot of anonymously sourced claims have been coming out revealing that Joe Biden's diminished energy and sharpness have apparently been an issue since 2022. While Biden is capable and strong as an executive leading and directing his team, his ability to do public appearances has, according to these accounts, fallen severely over the last two years.

The stories are that when performing for a crowd, he tires easily, loses focus quickly, and simply isn't up to the task of publicly performing for the camera without tight time limits and a teleprompter (which his recent speeches used). The take is that he is a good president, but he is no longer a good public performer.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/0 … e-00166160

https://www.salon.com/2024/07/02/carl-b … a-one-off/

Nancy Pelosi says it's up to Biden to dispel and disprove these stories and concerns with unscripted interviews:
https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2 … e-00166245

If Biden were to drop out, campaign finance laws dictate that only Kamala Harris would be able to use the Biden-Harris campaign funds to fuel a run for the presidency:
https://prospect.org/power/2024-07-02-c … -scenario/

It seems to me: if Harris lacks the stature to defeat Trump in November and since alternate Democratic candidates would lack the funds to campaign effectively, Biden is the only viable nominee, regardless of whether or not the hearsay is true. Often, voting is about choosing your preferred opponent, not your standard bearer.

And it seems to me: given the corruption of the Supreme Court, a Donald Trump win in the 2024 election would effectively be the last election as Trump's second presidency would now be empowered to hold office permanently and with any of Trump's whims and reprisals now validated as "official acts".

Which means Democrats have to support Biden regardless of his flaws, and see that Trump is once again defeated at the ballot box.

Simon Rosenberg encourages the Biden campaign to worry less and do more: to execute an aggressive ground game to get people voting by September 20, to present a new Democratic agenda to reform and renew Washington and the Supreme Court, and to use the horror that the Supreme Court just unleashed as fuel to defeat Donald Trump. And he encourages Democrat voters to vote early and volunteer.

https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/our- … day-1-dems

I'm afraid. I'm scared of the Supreme Court. I'm terrified of Trump.

**

Biden is going to do an unscripted ABC interview with George Stephanopoulos on Friday, with portions to air Friday and Saturday and the full interview Sunday.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/preside … =111618360

Biden, speaking off the cuff, was heard saying at a private fundraiser in McLean, Georgia:

Under scrutiny, I'm not sure this makes sense: Biden was indeed flying to Normandy, Italy and France and then Los Angeles, but then he was back in Washington by June 16, and he was at Camp David from June 20 - 27. That said, this is not a recorded quote, but a witness repeating what they heard, and what they were able to hear may be incomplete or missing additional statements or claims.

Who is Joe Biden? Well, this is an unscripted interview with Howard Stern in April 2024. I haven't listened to it yet, but I'm listening now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fz45sMb4js8

This is another upscripted interview with ProPublica from September 2023:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oZFeBHWtgzs&t=3s

I like Joe too. I just... don't know if Joe Biden in 2024 can win this election.

I also don't know if there are any other options.

I recall having the same opinion in 2020, when I shared this spoof Beaverton article:

I am as enthusiastic about Biden now as I was in April 2020, which is not very. But Biden changed my mind over time with his appearances and his campaign.

Maybe he'll change it again.

I haven't watched the Stern interview yet (I can try and start it tonight), but the problem is that, even if this is true, there's no more margin of error.  If they decide to stick with Biden, then Biden has to hit a home run in the next debate.  Because the point of no return is coming up, and they can't switch him out after another bad debate performance. 

If it's, say, Harris...she can have a cold or be jet lagged and still perform.  An 81-year-old man battling a cold or jet lag or exhaustion or whatever is going to look even older and slower and more confused.  It's exactly what we don't need right now.

I think Biden can do it, but there's no more room for error.  He cannot stumble anymore...that is over (unless Trump has an even bigger stumble).  Can he do that?  Sure.  Will he do that, especially as he's going to have to try more events that are unsanctioned?

If the answer is no, we cannot risk him staying in the race.  It's too important, and honestly, if you look at the polling, Biden is only not winning by a ton because of his age.  If he was 60, this could be a landslide.  He can't change his age, but we can change to a person with the same temperament, the same policies, and the same path. 

The easier road is Biden.  The path is paved, it's beautiful, and it's familiar.  But there's a shortcut through the woods.  The road is more perilous with all kinds of pratfalls that could cause us to be done for.  But it's a shortcut.  Do you take the safe path or the shortcut?

I think in that plan, the VP needs to be Whitmer or Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania.  I think it should be someone who can bring in votes from a swing state.  Any swing state they can get "for free" they should take.  I don't think America is ready for a double female ticket (they're barely ready for one woman on the ticket) so I guess I'd pick Shapiro or Raphael Warnock.

I do wonder why the polling for non-Biden candidates is so much worse.  This was the results of a recent Ipsos poll (July 1-2)

- Pritzker is losing by 6
- Whtimer is losing by 5
- Beshear is losing by 4
- Harris is losing by 1
- Biden is tied

Biden is the highest rated candidate of that group.  What's the reason?  Well here are the vote numbers:

Pritzker 34 Trump 40
Whitmer 36 Trump 41
Beshear 36 Trump 40
Harris 42 Trump 43
Biden 40 Trump 40

So for simplicity, let's say this was 100 people.  If we use Trump/Biden as the base, then six people went from Biden to undecided when it was Pritzker.  Four went from Biden to undecided for Beshear.  Three went from Biden to undecided when it was Whitmer (and perhaps one undecided went to Trump since he gained a vote.  For Harris, everyone seemed to stay on their side but two extra people went to her and three went to Trump. 

Trump's support basically stayed the same.  For the two women, he gained a vote or two, but that was it.  So Trump's support was pretty flat.  So are those 4-6 people that didn't vote for Pritzker/Whitmer/Beshear just not sure who those people are and can't commit?  I assume if they ran for 4-5 months, those people would find out who the nominee is and go home to the Democratic ticket.

I'm not sure why more people are decided on Harris/Trump than Biden/Trump, but that seems to be the case.

Now here's the weird one.  Michelle Obama *crushes* Trump 50-39.  She's the only one who beats him, and she does it decisively.

Now Michelle Obama isn't running.  But it's a really interesting stat because what is she providing that the others aren't?  I would say she's as well known as Biden and Trump - is it name recognition?  She's probably more well known than Harris, and I assume she's more liked than her.  But is there something else at play?  And is that "something else" that can be harnessed in a different candidate?

That's what I assume the Democrats need to figure out.  What does Michelle Obama have that caused a 10% bump in her vote share compared to Biden (and a one percent DROP for Trump), and do they have anyone else that has whatever that is?

Biden's Friday interview will air Friday instead of Saturday and Sunday:
https://abc.com/news/02867c69-fefa-4807 … ry/1138628

Biden did a July 4 interview on The Earl Ingram show and, again, he was good: thoughtful, impassioned, presidential.
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/e … 0661153768

**

Christopher Bouzy is absolutely right that replacing the Biden-Harris ticket would be a disaster due to the Biden-Harris campaign funds being stricted to Biden or to Harris... which underlines how it would be a strong strategy for Biden to resign and campaign for the acting Madame President Kamala Harris to become the elected US President.

Look, I like Biden, and I believe he has done as well as anyone could have with the House and Senate hands he's been dealt. And I believe he could continue to be a good president for a second term. However, my confidence in his ability to sell people on his capacity to perform -- on camera, unscripted, live and improvisationally -- is very badly shaken. And that terrific podcast interview? It was done remotely, and Biden likely (and wisely) had notes.

Every story about Biden's senior moments in the past week has accumulated into a deluge of bad press where Biden is being assailed by both ends of the political spectrum. The overall picture: Biden is slowing down, and he has senior moments. More and more in the last two years.

All this could be cherrypicking. You could say all of those things about anyone and emphasize their moments of tiredness and disorientation while de-emphasizing their acuity. But the public image of Biden is now that he is feeble and mentally diminished, and it's been reinforced by how few unscripted interviews Biden has given and how much his team has insulated him from uncontrolled media environments.

Biden may be able to turn it around with his upcoming interview. But if all it takes is one cold and one sleepless night for Biden to become the incoherent, unintelligible person he was on the debate night, then this just isn't going to work.

And if Biden is physically unable to be the live and on camera performer that a campaigner needs to be, then we are simply pushing forward a candidate who can't get enough votes to win.

In 2016, Democrats operated on the entitled assumption that Democrats didn't need to earn votes with a plausible and meaningful vision for how working people could have better lives under a Hillary Clinton administration. The Hillary Clinton vision was a vaguely vague vision of progressive values undermined by her actual record of support for corporations over ordinary people, for the war in Iraq that enough voters either rejected or couldn't support, leading to the Trump presidency. Slider_Quinn21 couldn't support her and blew his vote on Joe the Tiger Guy. (I'm assuming.)

In 2024, the Biden vision is a specific vision of aid and support to working people -- but led by a man whose onscreen presence and outreach conveys feeble confusion and unintelligible communication. This too, might see too many voters reject him or have no enthusiasm to support him... and as Slider_Quinn21 has pointed out, all it takes for Trump to become a dictator is 10,000 - 20,000 votes here and there across a few swing states. Slider_Quinn21 has changed tactics and would rather vote for a shaky but benign president than a strong but evil one... but let's face it, Slider_Quinn21 is the exception, not the rule.

People will, out of distaste for Democrats presenting a subfunctioning candidate and Republicans pressing for fascism, will vote third party or write in a relative's name. It's not enough to not be Trump; people's votes need to be earned actively, not passively.

I'm scared.

I hope Biden will turn things around on Friday. But what if he can't?

I know I've insulted you a lot and never really believed in you, but if you're listening, please help us, Mitt Romney. Yeah, that's how desperate I am.

Here's the question....is Biden's senility progressively fading away?  It's a serious and growing concern.  Especially for older Americans who have had the misfortune of witnessing this in their family members.  However, the White House naturally, and many Democrats have refused to broach the subject, because they view this as catastrophic to their chances at winning.  They make up ridiculous excuses, such as this week when it was said that apparently Joe Biden cannot operate after 8PM!  That is supposed to relieve the pressure?  They blamed his debate on JET LAG from 2 weeks earlier!  Come on.  Politics is about perception.  His debate was frightening.  That's on top of these widely distributed videos where the President looks ashen and blank.  He moves worse and worse.  The video with Obama on stage, or at that concert looking, again bluntly, like an extremely elderly person.  The GOP ragged him on this stuff, but now it's liberals saying it.  We need to ignore the source, and simply examine the evidence.  Biden, looks and speaks, like an old man with cognitive decline that is accelerating.  Frankly I have been quite shocked myself how poorly he's been in the last several months.  I used to scoff at the Biden bashing over his age and whatnot, but the last several months, I cannot keep the wool over my eyes.  He is impaired, and it's getting worse.  You're asking the public to ignore what they SEE, to vote for a man now, who may well be unable to serve a year a from now?  It's simply not fair on the voter. 

I said months, hell it might have been last year, that he should have stepped aside and allowed for an open primary.  The public polling was clear, they don't want EITHER of these guys on the ballot.  I said over and over, the party which dumps one of the geezers would have the inside line.  I still believe that.  Let Harris move up and pick up a Governor like Polis or Shapiro.  I'm not enamored with Kamala, but she can run on Biden's record, and will absolutely DEMOLISH the old fatso on stage.  We need a candidate with zest, who can speak for themselves and defend their record against the comical lies of the golf cart blimp.  We need a damn fighting chance here.  You have more and more Democratic politicians, former and current operatives, and donors who are completely freaked out.  They were skittish on Biden before, they are panicked now.  The calls will grow for him to step down.  Despite what his wife, or worse, his son, have been advising him to do.  Biden will be seen with EMPATHY by Americans not pity, and that will galvanize the Biden coalition. 

The Biden side says, you can't replace him, the others poll worse!  Nonsense!  They are NOT running.  When a person declares or wins a nomination, the polls quickly adjust.  You cannot ignore based on hypothetical's.  Many don't know who Newsom is, or Whitmer, hell I'm sure many voters don't really have a true opinion on Kamala Harris.  That all changes when the spotlight of the media coverage does.  You won't find more of a life long fan of Joe Biden than me.  I think he's plenty fine doing the job of President, which these days is not as intense as people think.  Obama and Trump also didn't sit there working day and night.  Joe cannot campaign for this job.  I truly cannot see what the alternative is now.  Trump is the EASIEST jackass on Earth to beat.  He is legit hated, the majority view him as a criminal, and his debate answers were Billy Madison level stupid, and often he was flat out NASTY.  He was caught on video the other day badmouthing Biden and then Harris, he will continue to run a mean spirited campaign.  That crap doesn't work, people on the fence don't like that tone.  It was one thing in 2016 when Trump just made fun of people, it's now in your face, Yankees' bleacher creature foul mouthed. 

I am repeating myself, but here's the best way I can liken it.  Yes, Biden can be presented in an ultra-controlled manner from now until November, to limit the gaffes and maybe get his message across.  That is NOT enough!!!!  This is not 2020.  Biden for the past year only seems to have speeches outside Philly.  He goes nowhere.  The White House have hidden him/blockaded him.  For a guy who is probably trailing Trump as we speak, this will not suffice.  You need a candidate who will go places, talk to people, charge up the base, the campaign teams, the donors, and will be shown on national television speaking clearly and decisively.  If he were up 5-6 points nationally, it might have worked out.  He's not, he's probably losing, has low approval, and vast majorities of Americans simply don't think he is capable doing the job.  The most clear reaction in polling was, Joe, time to go.

PS: SQ21 you asked about polls, just follow Political Polls @Politics_Polls they repost everything.  Again, a lot of them are of questionable integrity and mathematics.  538, Real Clear Politics, they all do averages as well.  Biden is losing most all of them.  My point on their reliability though is that Democratic Senator candidates seem to be AHEAD in these same states where Biden is behind.  I think this is where the voter is.  They don't want Trump, but between Biden's issues on immigration, inflation, interest rates, housing costs, and now a barrage of worries over whether he can actually perform Presidential duties, he's screwed.  Like you said, the margins were narrow even in 2020.  The red light is that Biden, in third party comparisons, is in the THIRTIES in many of these polls.  That is BADDDDDD!  These ppl don't want to vote for Trump, but their support of Biden is as thin as tissue paper now.  They likely won't vote at all, undervote, or whatever.  Those are lost votes the Democrats cannot afford to lose. 

PS2: I also have, unfortunately, continued to be proven right about Trump's legal cases.  They will all be delayed ad infinitum, he won't ever be punished.  The only avenue was to beat him.

More details on how Biden's cold ruined his debate prep.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/0 … d-00166624

I would say to anyone who wonders if it's unfaithful to call for Biden to step down and have Kamala Harris assume the Oval Office: supporting the proposed plan of Acting Madame President Kamala Harris is not disloyalty to Biden. Biden chose Harris. Biden believed in Harris. Supporting is Harris is supporting Biden.

Well, I don't know if it's BS. It's a narrative. It may be a factually slanted narrative, but the examples are clearly factual given the range and spectrum of all these anecdotes of Biden's senior moments.

They may be cherrypicked examples, but they are still examples. A two minute performance does nothing to bely this.

His speech at the Wisconsin rally today is animated, powerful and wonderful -- but he's reading off a teleprompter.
https://www.youtube.com/live/tleujWDs-G … amp;t=6307

His ABC interview is unscripted and... fine. But the rasp is there. The verbal fumbles are there.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hFyBapzgbSs

I mis-speak as often as Biden does in this interview. But now the world is seizing on every slip Biden makes, seeing every single twitch and whisper as a sign of weakness.

I'm scared. Look, if Biden's running and if I could vote in the US, I'd vote Biden. I just... don't know if he can do it.

I'm afraid.

I think this is about Joe Biden's dead son.

Joe Biden loved his son, Beau Biden. Joe, in his autobiography, PROMISES TO KEEP, describes how Beau went from being someone Joe took care of and raised to someone Joe looked up to and from whom Joe drew inspiration. Beau was an attorney general dedicated to prosecuting the corrupt.

Joe writes about how, as his vice-presidency began, he imagined he would retire after two terms and devote himself entirely to supporting Beau's political career and helping Beau run for the US presidency. Beau Biden had brain cancer and died in 2015.

I think Joe's run for the presidency, while motivated by loathing for Trump, has been in some ways a wish to live the life that Beau Biden was unable to live and achieve the lost potential of his beloved son. To honour Beau by accomplishing everything his son could not.

I think this wish to achieve Beau's unfulfilled goals may have gone too far. It may have become something overinflated and overextended to the point where it is potentially harmful to not only Biden and his legacy but to the country and the world.

I grieve with Joe Biden, but I'm afraid of what could happen in November.

Look, I've had my blow-ups with pilight. And as someone who has had some fights with pilight -- I genuinely do not believe pilight is being ageist.

(Slider_Quinn21, on the other hand, totally hates old people, constantly ranting about how Ben Affleck was too old to play Batman.) (I'm joking.)

The reality, fair or unfair, is that there has been a flood of anecdotes about Joe's lapses of awareness, acuity and mental clarity.
https://www.vox.com/politics/359024/bid … pses-polls

Fairly or unfairly, the Democratic Party is turning against Joe. With opposition from Democrats and antagonists in Republicans, Joe is being squeezed on every end. Donors are pulling out. Abigail Disney won't donate to Biden.

Whether those anecdotes paint a fair picture or not, the situation for Biden's campaign looks bad to me.

As for Biden himself? He served with honour. His son Beau would be proud of him. I know that because if Joe Biden were my father, I would be proud of him. Biden could pass the torch to Kamala Harris with honour and know he did right by his son and his country.

(I will vote for Biden if he's the nominee no matter what, even if he's in an assisted living facility).

But I'm really starting to get irritated with him and I'm not sure how he pulls out of this tailspin.  I get that he's qualified.  I get that he's done a great job as president.  I get that this is his moment and his decision - he won the nomination fair and square, and he's doing what almost every sitting president has chosen to do and run for a second term.

But oh my God, man.  He needs to read the room.  Everyone keeps saying that Trump is a legitimate threat to democracy, and if that's the case, we need the best possible candidate.  All options should be on the table.  And it literally doesn't matter how good of a president Biden has been if people think he's mentally gone.  And fair or not, ageist or not, that's where a large portion of the population is at.  A large enough population that polls have significantly shifted since the debate.

Can Biden win those people back?  Maybe?  I'm honestly not sure anymore.  Especially as Biden has grown more defiant.  He isn't facing the problem, and he's not even acknowledging the problem.

And I know it's unfair that he might get a chance to defend his presidency.  But he did it!  He's one of 46 people that have ever been president.  And it doesn't mean that he has to fade into obscurity.  He can stay active in politics if he wants, and every Democrat alive would be thrilled to have his counsel.  It would actually be honorable and doing his country a service if he steps aside and makes room for someone else for the good of the country.

Because the debate was bad.  The press now is getting worse.  An interview here and there isn't turning the needle at all.

Now don't get me wrong.  Harris as the candidate makes me nervous.  But right now, on July 6, I think a change to anyone would make me feel better about our chances.  Newsom or Whitmer or Shapiro or any of those people might make me feel a little better.  Maybe if Biden resigns and Kamala is president, being the first female president can be the reward it takes for her not to run ("I'm going to focus on being president the next four months and let someone else run").  I don't know how you jump her without pissing a bunch of people off.

But I know Trump and MAGA media would be scrambling to figure out how to attack a brand-new candidate.  It might throw their whole apparatus off their game as they've made it all about Joe and Kamala.  You might get a candidate who can spin some of Biden's more negative aspects (age, obviously, but even stuff like inflation and the border) into positives.  "I didn't fully agree with what Biden has done on (issue)" could be a powerful tool to get voters that are on the fence.

I get that it's a risk.  But right now, I'm terrified.  And if democracy is really on the line.  If the country is really on the line.  Then it shouldn't be about what's fair to Biden.  It shouldn't be about Joe Biden at all.  It should be about preserving democracy and preserving the republic.  Take a page from the Republicans and win.  At any cost.

President Biden now leads Trump by 5 percent in Michigan, and 3 percent in Wisconsin. The President's margin has grown 4% in both Michigan and Wisconsin.

Let's go!!!

https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/18 … 3054820493

I think Democrats will still be engaged because Trump is running.  I think enthusiasm might have dampened, but that will disappear as it gets closer.  There are very few human beings that I wouldn't vote for above Donald Trump, and that includes other MAGA republicans.  I maintain that Trump himself is more dangerous than most other people in the party so even if someone I really hate was running against him (like Ted Cruz), I'd vote for them over Trump.  MAGA Republicans are opportunistic cowards who are willing to do or say anything to stay in power, but I don't think they'd actively destroy the country.  Trump would.  I think there are exceptions, but I really do believe that Trump is a truly unique villain.

So whether it's Biden or Harris or Newsom or Whitmer or whoever, I think Democrats will show up and be enthusiastic because of who they're up against.  What I'm worried about is independents and Republicans that hate Trump.  We need all of them to vote for Biden too, and a lot of apolitical people I talk to hate both of these candidates.  I think if the Democrats ran someone that they'd never heard of, the freshness of a new person might be enough for them to vote for them.

I still maintain that's why Kennedy is still polling around the same.  I think, when pressed, people are willing to whatever the alternative is, no matter who that is.

CNN are like when you don't check socials while you're on vacation or out partying, see alerts that the world is on fire, and you pile on.  Only by then, the fire was extinguished.

That said, the issue are not Democratic voters, it's the independents (excluding Never T's) and low-info casuals, which at this rate we have no idea what % will vote.  Those are the people which Democratic insiders are afraid of.  How many, who poll after poll show a massive lack of comfort with Biden, will still back him?

Agreed with your assessment entirely.  As for RFK Jr. that's a placeholder for respondents who just aren't into either candidate.  The majority of that % will not vote for him, and perhaps many won't vote at all.  As I said above, it's a really, really, really difficult number to hit on.  What will the actual aka Likely Voter % be?  You'd be a millionaire if you get that right (in the next cycle though lol). 

As for whether Joe should leave office, I think that would be a mistake, because then you're basically admitting he is not fit to serve, and they've been lying to the country.  As opposed to "admitting" he just can't win.

There is a very important Dem caucus meeting that will take place Tuesday in DC.  Many members are expected to make a case to Hakeem Jeffries which they want delivered to the WH, that Biden should step away.  A similar meeting of Senators was supposedly canceled tonight.  Unfortunately almost all of the reporting on this has been completely "unnamed" and I think impossible to verify.

However, idk if anyone caught Adam Schiff on Meet The Press, but he basically pleaded for Biden to go.  Said "he should be trouncing Trump at this point, if not for his AGE."  You also have multiple ranking members on major committees calling for the same.  Schiff said he "should seek out polling experts who are not close insiders.  If they say he's still viewed with a shot to win, then go out and work like hell to beat the SOB."

Clearly the Biden family wish to "run out the clock" here.  They've insulated themselves, and have positioned this all as an affront to THEM.  It's borderline delusional.  Again, the ONLY consideration from here on is not whether "Joe Biden," the ballot choice, has enough pull to win.  It's whether Biden the person will continue to derail the campaign with gaffes and concerns over his fitness?  They can chastise the MSM all they want, they are whores and vultures, everyone knows it.  But it's still the MSM!!!!  How else are they getting their message out there?  Why aren't they talking about a frigging FELON on the other ticket?  Because their candidate is THAT bad.  There are whackos who have this ridiculous conspiracy going that the sound engineers have been intentionally distorting Biden's audio during televised appearances including the debate.  This is lunacy.  Give the average American some credit here, Biden cannot make simple arguments for himself without babbling into lying and being incoherent.  He's the problem.  I wish it weren't the case, but it IS, there's no fixing it, and you either shove him out of their or not.  Which is the best chance to win?  It's very difficult to know, but the down ballot folks are incredibly freaked out right now.

Keep calling them out to their faces, Mr. President!! You will always have my vote!

https://x.com/D_jeneration/status/1809349394359013560

Mr. Grizzlor.....where's all your criticism about Trump's mental decline which has been a consistent concern?

You can't criticize Biden without criticizing Trump as well.

Otherwise, that makes you a hypocrite.

I do think the media covers Trump in an unbalanced way.  Whenever I hear sound bytes from Trump rallies or speeches, they never include any of the nonsense that Trump spews.  I think, on some level, the media wants to cover the race "normally" as if it were Clinton vs Dole or something.  The problem is that it's not a normal race - Trump is showing a different kind of mental decline, but he's obviously struggling himself.

Here's the problem - Trump held it together on the national stage.  Biden didn't.  Every network could run a story on Trump's mental decline, and it would still be overshadowed by Biden's performance on the debate.  As an example, Biden's interview on ABC blew away the competition with 8 million viewers.  But 51 million viewers saw the debate.  How many different interviews would Biden have had to give to equal the same number of eyeballs that saw his rough performance?

And Trump lied a ton, but he didn't go off on a drunk uncle rant.  If he had, I guarantee that would've been the story, and you might've even seen some Republicans wondering if Trump should be replaced.

But that's not what happened so that's not the story.  And, again, some of this is on Biden.  He's talked for years about how Trump is going to destroy America if he becomes president again.  So you have a situation where the poll numbers aren't looking great nationally or in battleground states, and Democrats are starting to panic. 

It would be like if your local fire department put tons of ads on TV about how fires can cause household explosions.  Everywhere you look, someone was telling you that if you see a fire, your house is about to explode.  And then when you have a small housefire and you call the fire department, they show up without any water.  Then they laugh and say "don't worry, I'll come back with water in a little bit.  It'll be okay.  Trust me" 

So are you going to show up with water next time?  Can I trust you?  And why are you suddenly not worried about explosions?  Isn't there someone else I can call to handle this if you can't?

Maybe people will come back to Biden.  Maybe the polls are wrong across the board.  Maybe Biden's totally fine and can convince people he's totally fine.  Maybe he'll still win.  I really don't know.  But my house is on fire and I just want to feel comfortable that someone's going to bring some water before my house explodes.

I actually had the same thought on the clip that QuinnSlidr posted.  Biden was attacking the media and using hyperbole ("I did more than any president ever").  Those are things out of Trump's playbook.  Now maybe Biden's campaign thinks he needs to be a little more cocky and confident.  Maybe that's an intentional pivot.  I don't know.

I just wish the defiance made sense to me.  More polls are coming out that show that Harris might actually do better than Biden.  Michelle Obama was crushing Trump.  Heck, even HILLARY was beating Trump in a poll.  I think people are itching for a change.  And I want to believe that if Biden truly believed that there was a better candidate that could beat Trump, he'd step aside.

But I'm starting to worry that Biden truly believes that he's the only one who can beat Trump and that he's going to take us down with him.

Pretty much...

https://x.com/CoffeyTimeNews/status/1810293433455542618

https://x.com/honeysuckleknol/status/18 … 8951934213

Just because a defendant withdrew a case because of threats of death against her and had to use a pseudonym because of that doesn't make it false, Snopes.

He's still a child rapist and it is highly substantiated with court documents and multiple witnesses showing that Trump and Epstein both participated in the rapes.

https://x.com/harryjsisson/status/1810843909808849025

https://x.com/dcpoll/status/1810835198608621763

https://x.com/ChanninHolland/status/1810834676790989293

But sure, let's talk about President Biden's supposed "mental decline".

Trump's (Hitler's) is far worse.

https://x.com/NoLieWithBTC/status/1810854084544712831

https://x.com/ArtCandee/status/1810850893618704877

The problem is...do we really need to run our own candidate with a mental decline?  If the Democrats ran Harris or Newsom or Whitmer or whoever, there wouldn't even be this issue.  In that case, age becomes a huge benefit for the campaign instead of an issue that people can pick apart.

I think too many Democrats are worried that Biden dropping out would be a sign of weakness.  For me, it's a sign of strength.  Biden would be stepping down for the good of the country.  He'd be giving up power for the good of the country.  That's an incredible act of patriotism, and I think most people in the country would take it that way.  Even if Trump and MAGA made fun of him for quitting, I assume that would backfire on them.

Harris would continue what Biden is doing, whether it's now or in 2028, so it wouldn't be a drastic shift in policy.  I do think that someone like Newsom or Whitmer could offer a bit of separation from the Biden administration, which could be spun in a good direction for independents that don't think the country is going in the right direction.

I just think being stubborn is so dangerous.  I think hoping that Americans either forget that Biden is old or start accepting that him being slower and frailer is okay is just foolhardy.  Maybe it would happen on a limited scale, but I think the horse is out of the barn.  Biden can still win and I pray he does, but he better be right about being the best candidate to win.  Because if he's not, whatever happens is Biden's fault.

I criticize Trump's mental health constantly.  He's been clinically insane for years.  Republicans don't care.  Also, his insane speeches get zero media coverage while Biden (the actual President) is getting headlines.  If Biden drops out, the focus shifts to that whacko.  Trump's jerkoff behavior is not going to lose him votes.  He's lost whatever he could already. 

George Clooney, who just hosted a massive fundraiser for Biden, came out against his fitness, and the Biden WH responded by claiming Clooney left the event and Biden took photos for 3 hours.  They sound like Trump.  We all saw the video where Obama "helped" Biden off the stage. 

MSNBC's Chris Hayes basically doesn't think he can win. 
https://twitter.com/allinwithchris/stat … 4195930321

Swing district Dems in my backyard, Biden now in trouble in.
https://twitter.com/JSweetLI/status/1811131360435917069

Chuck Schumer ready to jump ship.
https://www.axios.com/2024/07/10/schume … 4-election

The Biden debate fiasco wouldn't have mattered, if there weren't already major contention over whether he could finish out a 2nd term.  Why should voters be pressed into electing someone who is highly unlikely to do so, as he'll be 86.  His approval ratings are awful.  And Biden continues to run many, many points weaker in swing states as the down ballot Dems are.  What you've had is a long standing concern amongst Democrats about Biden's chances.