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I don't think being a Democrat means having no criticism of Biden. Loyalty to democracy is not loyalty to an incumbent officeholder.
There are reports that Biden's fundraising is collapsing due to donors who want a new nominee. He may not have the money to campaign effectively.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/1 … g-00167496
I wish this was handled differently. First off, I wish that Biden had chosen not to run in the first place. He had talked about being a bridge president in the first campaign, and I wish he'd stuck to that. Unity a year ago would've been preferable to this. Second, I wish Biden would realize which way the wind is blowing and gracefully bow out. I maintain that LBJ isn't seen as some sort of quitter for not running for another term. When you look at LBJ's speech, I think it makes so much sense for Biden - he can focus on spending his last six months in office completing the work he'd started on and he can let Harris (or whoever) campaign.
I understand why it all has gone down the way that it did. Harris was polling worse than Biden, and they didn't do much of anything to get her more popular or well known. I think she was clearly chosen as a VP only with no intention of running her as a presidential candidate. But when you look at the polling, I think people are getting more comfortable with her. And while there are absolutely sexist/racist people who will vote for Trump over her because she's a woman, I would assume that these are people who would've voted for Trump anyway. And with four months to shine a positive light on her (and only four months for Republicans to try and tear her down), I think there's a decent chance they can build her up.
I don't want Biden to feel like he's a failure. I want him to be able to ride into the sunset as a hero and as a winner. I would absolutely love for him to stay in the race and beat Trump. But I'm just worried that too much of that has eroded. And even if he can convince the Democratic establishment, he might not be able to convince enough voters. And in an election with this little margin for error and this much at stake, I don't think we can take that chance.
Again, I'm not abandoning Biden. I'm just trying to be pragmatic. We need to win. And at 9:55 central on July 11, I feel like Biden doesn't have the best chance to win. I don't think I know 100% that Harris can win, but I think her negatives are a) spinnable and b) improvable. I don't know if Biden's aren't. I still think the best route is someone like Newsom (who can both realistically distance himself from the Biden administration while also promising to continue what Biden started), but I understand the monetary reasons not to do it.
For me, the best case scenario is for Biden to resign, let Kamala focus on being president for six months, and have someone else run. I think that's the best of both worlds. We get a female president, Harris gets something to drop out, and the Democrats gets a fresh/young/lively ticket that can realistically claim to be able to forge a new path. In that case, Trump can't campaign about how Biden did such a bad job because (new ticket) can claim they're making their own changes. Trump can't complain about age because he'd be the old guy. He'd be the establishment guy. He'd be the known variable. I think it would totally throw him on his back foot.
And yeah, there'd only be 4 months to build up the Democratic ticket, but I think in today's environment, that might actually be a good thing. Half the reason people hate these guys is that they're known. I think if Newsom or Whitmer or Shapiro or whoever got on a debate as a fresh face, it would feel like such a breath of fresh air. It doesn't take long for people to form an initial opinion on them, and I think the one negative they'd have (lack of experience) might be easily spun into a positive.
If it's Biden, I support him. But I just feel like there's a better option at this point. I think the damage is done and the path is over. Trump can be beaten. We can do this. It isn't too late.
It just may be too late for Biden. Who, again, I really really like.
Biden is not a failure.
Unless he loses to Trump.
Biden is not a failure.
Unless he loses to Trump.
I don't think it ruins Biden's legacy if he loses to Trump. I don't think it helps. I don't also know if it really helps Biden's legacy to win again and then have to cede the presidency in 1-2 years. Even if Biden isn't too old now, he might be too old in the next couple of years.
I just don't think there's any shame in admitting that age caught up with you. Age catches up with everyone. I'm not the same guy I was when I started on this board a million years ago. Again, I think there's a nobleness to someone stepping aside and letting the next generation do the job. And I have full confidence that everyone will celebrate Biden if he chooses to step aside.
To me, there's so much more to lose by staying in than stepping aside. But it's Joe's call.
This press conference is not helping Biden.
Can you please point out the posts on this board in which you criticize Trump? Because I don't see any scrolling past this entire page. It's all Biden bad, Biden bad, Biden bad.
Not a single word about how terrible Trump's mental health has declined.
You just quoted a post where I spent a paragraph describing Trump as insane. You will not find many alive who detest him worse than me. Trust me. I hate him so bad that I am willing to throw the kitchen sink at this election. Trump is irrelevant to this discussion, he'll be there whether it's Biden or not, angrier and more dour than ever. If one ONLY watched Trump's debate footage, you would see a maniac. I think I said that. Unfortunately, there's a lot of unengaged voters and people in this country who (polls show) do not view Donald Trump as a Constitutional terrorist. They view his 1st term as an economic success, forgetting that he stood by while it cratered due to a virus. I'm just stating what I feel is the truth. Biden has failed to invigorate those fickle voters.
I wish this was handled differently. First off, I wish that Biden had chosen not to run in the first place. He had talked about being a bridge president in the first campaign, and I wish he'd stuck to that. Unity a year ago would've been preferable to this. Second, I wish Biden would realize which way the wind is blowing and gracefully bow out. I maintain that LBJ isn't seen as some sort of quitter for not running for another term. When you look at LBJ's speech, I think it makes so much sense for Biden - he can focus on spending his last six months in office completing the work he'd started on and he can let Harris (or whoever) campaign.
The handling goes back to the type of office Biden runs. He has insulated himself, and his campaign are yes-people who have not been honest with their own boss. He's gotten poor advice. But Joe Biden believes strongly in himself, you can't knock him for that. Sadly, as more and more active Congress people continue to come out against his candidacy, it's just going to get more and more embarrassing. The polls and approval ratings have terrible for years now. Biden continued to push a strong agenda, but so much of it has faltered. What it's really shown is that the Presidency is really not very effective in resolving economic issues. Maybe in the past, not now, not with all the globalism. And don't forget, "we're just primates who wear pants."
This press conference is not helping Biden.
In all seriousness, I don't think the press conference does anything. There is a growing, semi-orchestrated push to get him to step off. Biden is excellent on foreign policy, which was the gist of that presser. Unfortunately, that subject is FARRRRR down the list of American voting considerations, especially in the swing states. Like I have said, they are using his faltering communicative abilities as a crutch for the real reason Biden is being asked to depart. His numbers STINK, they are appalled, freaking out he will take the House and Senate with him. The Democratic backers have spent most of the last year or so squinting at the polls. They finally got it through their heads that Biden is losing to Trump, and they don't see him making a 4th quarter comeback. He is seen as wilted goods.
Watching the press conference, President Biden's gaffes aren't nearly as bad as all the remove Biden pushers would have you believe.
Nowhere near as bad as Trump's (Hitler's) decline. So explain to me again why the media isn't pushing that? Are they all Trump donors? Dirtbags.
The President still has my vote.
As much as Grizzlor wants me to believe it, he is still pushing all the remove Biden agenda and right winger memes the right is pushing. I have a hard time believing his behavior is linked to a real President Biden supporter. It feels like behavior that's akin to a mole paid by the other side to keep that narrative going: minimize anything negative about Trump, and just talk all about President Biden's age and mild gaffes to push the remove Biden agenda.
I could be wrong, but I think Biden still has everyone's vote here if that's where things end up. Maybe even ireactions, who cannot legally vote.
The problem with Biden now is that the optics are all wrong. He has to completely change the narrative, and I just don't know if that's possible. He did great for the majority of the press conference, but he flubbed a couple lines and that's the story. In some ways, it's super unfair to Biden. In others, the guy still got to be president. Only 45 other guys can say that in 200+ years. If he steps aside (I won't say quit) now or if he loses in November, he got four years at this job, and he did a great job. He can hold his head high, and I guarantee that if he wants to stay involved, they're going to let him stay involved.
Is it unfair that he had to wait so long and time caught up to him? Absolutely. Is he going to fight as hard as he can to keep it? Absolutely. But I'm really hoping he makes the pragmatic decision. The job may not be finished and he may want to be the one to finish it, but there are other ways to help. If it's Harris and she wins, she's going to need a ton of help and Biden can help her. Rocky got to old to fight, but he was able to help Adonis Creed. Time moves on, and age catches up with everyone.
If he runs, I just really hope he wins. If he's going to be stubborn and push through and loses, that's where he'll damage his legacy.
Biden got better as the presser wore on.
My opinion is unchanged. Biden doesn't have four good years left in him. He shouldn't be running.
Trump has never had four good years and he's well past his prime. Plus he's a crook. He shouldn't be running either.
So much for all the remove Biden propaganda.
Biden lost no voters during the debate that's a new study that came out this week. (In fact he gained among black voters who watched the debate, the decreases came from people who didn't watch the debate but got their information from other sources)
New polls came out today. Biden is ahead or tied in 60%-70% of them and only behind by 1%-3% in the others.
So he lost no voter from the debate and he's going up in the polls, but he's not electable?
Maybe people are paying way more attention to Trump than people think.
I don't know why it's so close. But I don't think that's a factor related to Biden. Trump has a hard 45% of the American vote.
Propaganda and cultism is really what's responsible.
https://x.com/SimonWDC/status/1811771182137401714
Thank you, QuinnSlidr. And everyone should note according to Simon Rosenberg here: the 1 - 3 percent differences hereare so within the range of error that the race is what Rosenberg calls "close and competitive" rather than anyone being ahead or behind.
Biden's falling fundraising (as reported by the press but denied by the campaign) could be an issue.
Trump was shot at today on Pennsylvania and lived. Bloodied but played it up for the cameras. Election is over. He'll get a huge bump in the polls from that. Play the sympathetic hero part. May as well leave Biden on the ticket, he deserves the humiliation coming.
I echo our President Biden. Political violence, even if you don't like Trump, is never acceptable.
Trump was shot at today on Pennsylvania and lived. Bloodied but played it up for the cameras. Election is over. He'll get a huge bump in the polls from that. Play the sympathetic hero part. May as well leave Biden on the ticket, he deserves the humiliation coming. https://x.com/elonmusk/status/181225857 … g&s=19
I'm getting very bored with people who jump onto whichever bandwagon of doom they thinks is trendy this week based on nothing more than paranoia and the clumsy belief that assuming the worst makes one seem clever and prophetic as opposed to boorish and facile.
Given that there are only two possible outcomes to a Democrat/Republican election (one party or the other), any prediction has a 50-50 chance of being right, and anyone who declares their prediction to be fact based on a single event is simply shallow.
People like this don't have values or beliefs or perspectives. They just have anxieties, grievances and bandwagons and their views are just random flailing.
**
Simon Rosenberg shared an update on why he believes the election remains "close and competitive" based on polls where Republican funded frauds have been filtered out:
https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/why- … can-win-my
Joe Biden spoke at NATO honouring its mission and existence.
https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/why- … can-win-my
Biden also gave a press conference after the NATO conference where, despite slips of the tongue, Biden demonstrated an in-depth and capable knowledge of foreign affairs and diplomacy that Donald Trump is incapable of delivering.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NFCbn6bgeVM
The slips of the tongue: Biden accidentally referred to President Zelenskiy as "President Putin" at the conference and referred to Kamala Harras as "Vice President Trump"... but the forcefulness of his performance made it clear that these are the usual errors of Biden as a self-described "gaffe machine".
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/art … rris-trump
Biden gave a powerful speech at a Detroit rally where he gave his goals for his first 100 days in office of a second term and remarked that his conflating names was nothing compared to Donald Trump's Project 2025 plans of fascism.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XqLj917Qu3c
Trump was shot at today on Pennsylvania and lived. Bloodied but played it up for the cameras. Election is over. He'll get a huge bump in the polls from that. Play the sympathetic hero part. May as well leave Biden on the ticket, he deserves the humiliation coming.
I'm not 100% sure. Do you think there'd be a massive swing in poll numbers if Biden was the one who was shot? I think people's opinions on these two are pretty baked in, and I don't know if anything is going to massively swing anyone's opinions on either of these guys. Trump is absolutely going to play it up. The way he played it up yesterday is what is playing into the "staged" nature of this whole thing. It basically went about as well for Trump himself as possible (keeping in mind that he will absolutely use MAGA deaths to his advantage so I don't think the spectator is going to bother him at all).
(I'm not saying it's staged - I'm just saying that Trump couldn't have staged it any better if he had tried)
But Trump might get a temporary bump in the polls which might be enough to push Biden out of the race. Biden's chances were already on life support, and I don't know if any kind of bump in the polls is going to allow him to stay in the race.
At the same time, I don't know if 2024 could've gone better for Trump. Between Biden's campaign falling apart, getting the support he got from Cannon and SCOTUS to keep his trials happening, and then surviving an assassination attempt with superficial injuries that still appear significant, it does appear that he might be getting help from above.
Most of the people claiming Trump has won the election because he got shot are the people seeking to shape the narrative towards a Trump victory that they want in the first place. It has no basis in fact. Getting shot is not, last I checked, a key part of presidential duties or foreign relations or public health on a national scale.
It is indeed very curious that someone who claims to be a Democrat is participating in urgently shaping the narrative to claim that Trump being shot has secured a Trump term, a very peculiar leap that seems less like an observation (because it isn't) and more like a slanted direction. The statement is nonsensical whether it comes from Republicans or someone claiming to be a Democrat. Getting shot does not win an election. Getting more votes is what wins an election.
In terms of the polls: even post-debate, reliable polls indicate that nothing has really shifted from a dead heat, or, as what Simon Rosenberg calls it, "close and competitive": https://x.com/SimonWDC/status/1812475228641005746
I despise Donald Trump.
Attempting to assassinate him is a foolish and destructive act that only emboldens and encourages the brand of violence and hatred that Trump himself encourages.
It's wrong on every level. It's wrong on a moral level to use lethal force on someone who isn't physically and immediately attacking you.
It's wrong on an ethical level because we don't want America to be a place where murder dictates elections whether it's on one side or the other.
It's wrong on a strategic level because it enables people who are either crazy, ignorant, dishonest, foolish, or some combination of all four, to turn Trump into a figure of sympathy and gives his cause further militance and make inane claims like "the election is over".
Trying to kill Trump isn't just morally and ethically wrong. It demonstrates an utterly incompetent sense of political strategy. It's wrong.
It's also stupid.
I despise Donald Trump.
Attempting to assassinate him is a foolish and destructive act that only emboldens and encourages the brand of violence and hatred that Trump himself encourages.
It's wrong on every level. It's wrong on a moral level to use lethal force on someone who isn't physically and immediately attacking you.
It's wrong on an ethical level because we don't want America to be a place where murder dictates elections whether it's on one side or the other.
It's wrong on a strategic level because it enables people who are either crazy, ignorant, dishonest, foolish, or some combination of all four, to turn Trump into a figure of sympathy and gives his cause further militance and make inane claims like "the election is over".
Trying to kill Trump isn't just morally and ethically wrong. It demonstrates an utterly incompetent sense of political strategy. It's wrong.
It's also stupid.
So do I, ireactions. I despise him as well.
We are 100 percent agreed on all points. Incredibly stupid move. All it does is turn him into a martyr. Which is exactly what we don't want or need.
The evidence available does not substantiate the view that the race has shifted away from President Biden in the immediate aftermath of the debate.
https://spoutible.com/pod/669281629258eeb1b3de21e8
I bet if we had a dollar for every time a certain someone has yelled, "The election is over," to anyone in earshot in his life based on whichever way the wind was blowing that week, we could buy NBCUniversal, reboot SLIDERS and uncancel QUANTUM LEAP.
**
Christopher Bouzy is very interesting. I'd never heard of him until today. He is a computer scientist, statistician and analyst. He is of the Simon Rosenberg school that poll aggregates and averages have been totally thrown off by unreliable Republican polls throwing off the polling.
Bouzy also observes: Trump's voter support has a ceiling. There are only so many voters who wholeheartedly support this looney tune, there are only so many voters who will grit their teeth and vote for said looney tune out of tribalistic party loyalty, and Trump's 2016 victory was an extremely close and narrow win who got lucky from being something of an unknown quantity whose unknown future impact on America was considered more appealing than Clinton's empty, soulless campaign that made too many Democrats stay home or vote for Jill Stein or Joe the Tiger Guy.
This time, Trump is an extremely known quantity. That ceiling on Trump's support, Bouzy points out, has only gotten lower since 2016, with Republicans repeatedly underperforming and failing in 2017, 2020 and 2022. Bouzy says that anyone who claims "the election is over" based on Trump getting shot is just skimming headlines and ignorantly blind to the reality of American politics.
**
Even without that, I would note that anyone foretelling the outcome of a situation with only two possible outcomes based on self-proclaimed prescience regarding one event is engaged in sensationalization, not analysis or observation.
The shooter seems to mirror the same rinse and repeat background of so many of the school mass shooters. Young, suburban, white kid with no friends, parents who seem oblivious, some type of clinical depression or mental illness, and of course, a fetish for guns. Quite ironic that Trump is shot by one, after he dismissed calls for gun control repeatedly.
I think it's over, for the same reasons. Perception, low information, and low voter engagement. MAGA are absolutely in ecstasy. Their precious martyr and messiah escapes death once again. Crimes don't stick to him, and neither do bullets. They will be voting in bigger numbers than ever, it's going to be a huge turnout problem for down ballot Dems.
Meanwhile, the Biden campaign, who have focused most messaging on Trump being a danger, will be forced to tone down or even eliminate that talking point. Sorry, I don't see reliable state polls that show Biden ahead, and many are shockingly bad.
Trump claims he has completely changed his RNC speech, to something uniting and consilatory. I suppose if he has really shifted from doom and whining about 2020 or his court cases, or demonizing political goes, that will gain him more sympathy. You're going to see a raucus GOP convention. The DNC is likely to be a cluster marred by Gaza protests and a crowd on pins and needles. I see little to be hopeful about.
I guess I have the same question I had before, Grizzlor. Do you think this "sympathy" factor would be the same if Biden had been the one who was shot? Because if it's going to go one way, it would have to also go the other way.
I'm also not sure that MAGA could get any more engaged. If Trump is on the ballot, 100% of MAGA was going to show up. Shooting, no shooting. Whether it's against Biden or Harris or Newsom or even someone else they actually like. It's why Trump has had such a reliable floor since 2016 and why Republicans have struggled in every election that Trump isn't in. It's also why I wonder if Trumpism would've died Saturday if Trump had been killed. These guys don't even really identify with Republicans - they're constantly talking about how much they don't like Republicans or Republican leadership. MTG constantly talks about the "Uniparty" because MAGA thinks of both parties as being the same. There isn't a clear successor to MAGA when Trump dies, and I don't think any of the possible successors can carry the number of people that he can. DeSantis can't. Cruz can't. Hawley can't. Taylor Greene can't. Neither of Trump's kids have a fraction of Trump's charisma.
These people love Trump, and even if he'd been a martyr, there'd be no way for that to translate to political gain for Republicans. Trump would probably win write-in elections for mayorships in Mississippi but then someone else would actually be there. There'd be violence but that would eventually die down.
My point is that I don't know who's switching from Biden to Trump because Trump got shot. Now if Trump does soften his messaging and moves to a more peaceful and hopeful message, I think that could change things. People don't like Trump because he's divisive and narcissistic and angry and mean. If he can shift his message to one of hope and prosperity and peace or whatever, that could win over some independents. My wife commented this morning that maybe a brush with death will get him to mellow out a little bit.
Someone on the Atlantic wrote this article about how the image of Trump standing up defiantly in the face of political violence is actually something that could be inspirational. And if I thought Trump meant half the things that he said, there's probably some things to like about him. He's actually not far right on many issues. He's moderating the stance of abortion for the entire party. If he was actually about world peace and standing up to bullies or any of his foreign policy stuff, none of that is particularly bad. Even his connection with the working class should be a good thing. I think enacting policies that help the working class is good.
The problem is that I don't think Trump actually means any of it. He doesn't want world peace - he wants unlimited power and to hand power to other despots like him. I don't think he understands enough about economics to help the working class, and even if he did, I think he despises the working class. I don't think he'd help them if he could. Every policy he has is only because it's good for him politically. If it would get him power, he'd instantly shift his stance on abortion or trade or anything. The only policies I think he truly believes in are the immigration ones because I don't think he likes people of color or Muslims.
But if he can convince people that he actually loves America (I don't think he does) or that he's actually interested in unity or peace (I don't think he is), I think that might shift the electorate. But I don't think there are people that are going to have enough sympathy for Trump to switch their vote for him come November. If he's back to being the same guy, even if it's just later this week, any sympathy non-MAGA would've had for him will be gone by the time his ear heals.
"The election is over based on this recent headline" claims are not analysis, regardless of who they come from. They are musings of manic-depressives with myopic focus on whatever was last in their line of sight without genuine analysis of the surrounding political landscape. They are narratives from pundits seeking to shape a narrative to a conclusion of their preference via hyperfocus on sensationalistic events. But they are not good-faith, genuine examinations of the situation.
References to Biden's terrible polls, in this environment, are meaningless without specifying precisely which polls and whose aggregates, given how Republicans have flooded polling with slanted results to throw off the averages.
Even if Trump wins, that doesn't make these manic or sensationalized predictions meaningful; they had a 50-50 chance of being right already.
Getting shot is not a presidential duty. Trump is an unsympathetic and unrepentant fool who has repeatedly incited violence; his being targeted is a grim irony of the monstrosity he unleashed himself, much like Trump getting COVID after months of COVID-denialism and COVID-minimization. He will not be able to capitalize on sympathy due to his repulsive and deranged public profile.
Democrats have silenced their calls for Biden to step down and muted their anti-Trump ads for a week, maybe two. Democrats have a new opportunity to turn the page on Biden's age and focus on the violence that Trump encourages and from which he can't protect himself. The Republican convention will put Trump's sociopathic intentions back into focus from Project 2025 to his violent threats. This madness is why Trump's support has a low ceiling. Is it enough to win? Yes. Is it insurmountable? No.
Donald Trump could win in November, but it's hardly a certainty in a race that remains in a dead heat if you set aside Republican-skewed polling averages and clickbait headlines. Biden stumbles and gaffes often. Biden is an excellent politician who has repeatedly proven his naysayers wrong and has a steady, strategic approach. Certainly, I'd prefer Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket, but Biden's lengthy list of legislative wins and grandfatherly demeanor are preferable to a sociopath no matter how many times that sociopath gets shot.
Polls aren't elections. Getting shot is not getting more votes.
But if he can convince people that he actually loves America (I don't think he does) or that he's actually interested in unity or peace (I don't think he is), I think that might shift the electorate. But I don't think there are people that are going to have enough sympathy for Trump to switch their vote for him come November. If he's back to being the same guy, even if it's just later this week, any sympathy non-MAGA would've had for him will be gone by the time his ear heals.
Nevermind. He's already back to his normal antics.
I think he might get sympathy for a week or two, but undecided voters will probably go back to being undecided once they forget about this or get annoyed by him again.
Simon Rosenberg:
Democracies resolve differences at the ballot box and not with bullets.
I have no idea how the shooting will impact this election, or what happens next.
Polls conducted last week found the election close and competitive, with neither side having a clear advantage. Today Biden is at 270 Electoral College votes in the 538 forecast despite lingering and legitimate concerns about his candidacy.
As I said in my video overview of the election from late last week we can and should win this election, but we need to stay together and not give into fear, factionalism or red wavy Trump has superpowers thinking.
I am grateful for an honest, humble claim of "I have no idea" from the man who saw through the false illusion of the 2022 red wave and a note that current polls are based on pre-assassination attempt data.
I would rather have an admission of not having answers yet over boorish "The election is over" rants from manic loudmouths who think clickbait headlines grant comprehensive understanding. Who offer not insight or knowledge, but egotistical boasts that the world will always unfold to their personal prejudices and offhand assumptions.
I have the humility to say I am not sure how things will unfold. The world doesn't always go the way I think it will. Things could get worse. I'm scared.
But getting shot is not a presidential duty, Trump is deranged and there are so many crazies and tribalists who'll vote for that nutjob, and the election is over after November 5, 2024 and not before.
Biden called the family of the man murdered at Trump's rally. The widow refused to take the call.
Trump hasn't called the family at all.
I am less than shocked.
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-j … ly-1925577
What a sociopath.
**
Biden's live interview with Lester Holt:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iUSmk1SqEu8
Biden is pretty fired up. And when asked what effect the shooting would have on the election:
Joe Biden:
I don’t know. And you don’t know either.
Trump does not care about his supporters. I have no doubt that he'd be willing to sacrifice as many of them as possible to get the power he wants and to stay out of jail.
That's what is so heartbreaking in some ways about the Trump candidacy and presidency. I do not think that the majority of MAGA (and certainly not the majority of Trump voters) want Trump to be a dictator. I don't think they want Russia to take over Europe or crash the economy with an insane tariff idea.
Minus the true racists in the movement, I think they're just hardworking people who finally are heard/seen by a politician. I think they truly believe that Trump loves the country and wants to make the country great. I think these people aren't racist or autocratic. I think they've been tricked into thinking that we're giving away something that should be theirs to someone else (immigrants, foreigners in Ukraine or Gaza, or to enemies like China). I think they feel cheated, lied to, and taken advantage of.
Some of that might be based on something inherently racist (that the country was "great" during a time when it was only great for white people) or incorrect (that the United States should be a Christian nation), but I think they want the country to be great. Even some of their ideas are altruistic. They believe Trump's "peace through strength" mantra, and they think this would prevent wars around the world.
At the end of the day, I don't think these people are bad people, and I think it's tragic that people keep dying in the name of Trump. I think they want to reclaim something that they feel like they lost, and I think they want to be able to put food on their tables. I think they're struggling, and they feel like only one person is listening to them.
And Trump is taking advantage of them. He's lying to them. He's using them. And he's getting them killed. If there was some sort of version of Trump that was true to what MAGA believed, I think it would be great. Someone who is putting the working class first. Someone who truly understood the economy and how to make it prosper. Someone who could work with world leaders to bring in an era of peace not just in America but in the rest of the world.
But Trump isn't that guy. And one day they will understand that, and it will be heartbreaking.
An interesting take: https://www.salon.com/2024/07/16/bye-by … dismissed/
"Judge Aileen Cannon ran her courtroom in Fort Pierce, Florida, like a massage parlor for one of Jeffrey Epstein’s best friends, and on Monday she wrapped up her special service when she dismissed all charges against Donald Trump in his trial for stealing and mishandling classified documents and obstructing the government’s attempts to recover them. Trump initially faced 31 felony counts of violating the Espionage Act, five counts of conspiracy to obstruct justice, and one count of making false statements. Cannon dismissed the case on procedural grounds, without ever considering the mountain of incriminating evidence against Trump:
More than 100 top-secret documents, including one containing nuclear secrets, were seized by the FBI in a search of Trump’s hotel/club/residence, Mar-a-Lago, in Palm Beach, Florida in August of 2022.
Another tranche of more than 30 classified documents Trump had turned over to the Department of Justice in response to a subpoena.
Surveillance video shows Mar-a-Lago employees moving boxes containing classified documents from room to room in Mar-a-Lago a day before DOJ officials showed up to serve the subpoena.
Testimony from Mar-a-Lago employees that the boxes of classified documents were moved at the behest of the former president.
The list goes on, but you get the picture. Days before he left office in 2021, Donald Trump illegally removed from his White House residence hundreds of boxes of government property. He then spent more than a year and a half resisting attempts by the government to recover the material, in violation of laws against obstructing justice. And he induced others to help him in the scheme.
In November of 2022, Jack Smith was appointed special counsel to investigate and potentially prosecute Donald Trump in the classified documents case. The case landed in the court of a Florida judge Trump appointed to the bench, Aileen Cannon. Almost immediately, Judge Cannon began a four-on-the-floor, pedal-to-the-metal campaign of stalling and obstructing the attempts of Special Counsel Jack Smith to investigate Trump. She granted a motion to appoint a “special master” to go through not only the classified material seized by the FBI but all the material he took from the White House. The ostensible reason for the special master was to examine the material to see if any of it was subject to either executive or attorney-client privilege. While the order was in effect, neither the FBI nor the special counsel was allowed to even look at the evidence in the investigation. Smith appealed to the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals, and in late December, Cannon’s order was overturned.
Trump was charged in June of 2023, and another flurry of delaying motions was unleashed by Trump’s defense, allowing Judge Cannon to take weeks and then months to consider individual motions, one by one, and to schedule individual hearings on each motion. She would take weeks to consider Trump’s motions and the special counsel’s replies, and then weeks to schedule the hearings, and she would take more weeks before issuing her rulings on each delaying motion.
It was during this process that Trump’s defense team made a motion to dismiss the charges based on its theory that the special counsel was improperly and unconstitutionally appointed, thus the prosecution he brought was unconstitutional as well.
It was no surprise to legal experts today when Judge “I’m Delaying Just As Fast As I Can” Cannon dismissed the charges, especially since Justice Clarence Thomas, in a footnote to the court’s decision finding that Trump is immune from prosecution for official acts he took as president, put forth his theory that the special counsel was unconstitutionally appointed. Justice Thomas’ theory had nothing to do with the presidential immunity case, but it was inevitable that it would be noticed by Judge Cannon and used as a rationale to dismiss the charges against Trump in the classified documents case which she did Monday in a 93-page ruling that Smith’s appointment “violates the appointments clause of the United States Constitution.” Cannon even went along with the motion made by Trump that the funding of the special counsel’s office was unconstitutional because it violated the “role of Congress in authorizing expenditures by law.”
As the New York Times reported on Monday afternoon, Cannon’s ruling “flew in the face of previous court decisions reaching back to the Watergate era that upheld the legality of the ways in which independent prosecutors have been named.” That wouldn’t bother Cannon, however, because most of what she has done over the last two years in the classified documents case has been not only unusual but unprecedented, including hearing oral arguments from third parties who filed outside briefs supporting Trump motions that included the one she ruled on today.
One massive irony in Cannon’s ruling is that it throws into question the appointment of other special counsels, including that of Robert Hur, who is prosecuting the son of the president, Hunter Biden, meaning that the charges against him may be dismissed as well.
The Department of Justice has already authorized Smith to appeal Cannon’s ruling to the 11th Circuit, which would make its third appeal to that court since November of 2022. The 11th Circuit, as it has before, will probably slap down Cannon’s ruling and order the case to be reinstated. The special counsel is bound to include in its appeal an argument that Judge Cannon be dismissed from the case. If the 11th Circuit approves that motion, a new judge will be appointed to the case. He or she will no doubt take a month or two to get up to speed on the case. Previous delaying motions filed by Trump are still pending, so the judge will have to rule on those before a trial date can be set.
But, if the 11th Circuit overturns Cannon’s ruling, Trump will doubtlessly appeal to the Supreme Court, and we already know what they think about his standing before the law.
And then, of course, there is the election, which will determine who will be the next President of the United States. If Trump wins, he will without a doubt dismiss the special counsel and have his new Attorney General – he might appoint Aileen Cannon; stranger things have happened – dismiss the classified documents charges against him…yet again.
Round and round Aileen Cannon has gone down there in Florida, and round and round we go as the clock ticks toward Election Day in November, and where it stops, nobody knows."
I am really worried about Biden. In his speech about lowering the temperature of politics, he kept trying to say "ballot box", and it kept coming out as "battle box."
I am worried about how it plays to voters.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jOPJdEYX3ZQ
I really don't understand why Biden is staying in. It's either ego or the poll numbers for basically anyone else are worse than we thought. Just like Trump has a ceiling, I think Biden has a floor because enough people don't want to see Trump back in office. But I don't understand being resigned to *maybe* winning 270-268 when a different candidate could possibly do better in the Sun Belt. I don't know if Biden has any chance of winning any of those states. Maybe Kamala Harris can't either, but I think we know that Biden probably can't.
Biden's negatives can't be fixed, and they can only get worse. The more public he is, the more gaffes he makes (intentionally or not), and one of them could make things so much worse. Why not go with someone who might have more negatives but they're negatives that can be spun into positives? Harris has less experience but Biden could campaign for her and talk about how she's ready. Her prosecutor background could convince undecideds that she could be tough on crime or immigration. She could reach women in an election that abortion will be front and center on. Her (relative) youth could help her with younger voters as she might have some sort of idea what the Internet is. She may even own AirPods! I know she doesn't do much better with black voters, but maybe it'd help.
Biden isn't going to get any younger. He isn't going to look any less frail. I know he can do the job, and I understand that he's super sharp in private meetings. But whether he's the best person for the job doesn't matter when it's a popularity contest.
I still think he can win. I just don't know why they don't just make a move. There could be a lot of enthusiasm around a Harris VP pick, and it could be from a state like Pennsylvania (*ahem* pick Shapiro *ahem*) that could get them hugely important electoral votes. I know VP picks don't usually matter, but it could in a close election. Especially if both sides of the ticket would be incredibly unknown for the lateness in the campaign.
I love Biden, and I think he's done a great job. But I truly wish he hadn't decided to run again.
Well, I've given you my theory:
https://sliders.tv/bboard/viewtopic.php … 945#p15945
Biden's own answers:
Joe Biden:
I am the nominee. I'm the nominee because 14 million Democrats like you voted for him in the primaries. You made me the nominee. No one else. Not the press, not the pundits, not the insiders, not donors. You, the voters.
I'm the nominee of the Democratic Party, and the only Democrat or Republican who has beaten Donald Trump ever. And I'm going to beat him again. I know him. Donald Trump is a loser.
President Trump is even more dangerous now. I'm serious. He's unhinged. He's snapped. And he refuses this time around to say he'll accept the results of this election. Can you imagine that? Look, he says, if he loses, there will be a bloodbath.
And the United States Supreme Court said there's virtually no limit on the power of a president. Trump said if he wins, he'll be a dictator on day one.
Folks, Project 2025 is the biggest attack on our system of government and our personal freedom that has ever been proposed in the history of this country. And here's the nightmare it would what it would unleash.
Trump's Project 2025 will criminalize the shipping of abortion medications anywhere. Project 2025 will deploy the Department of Justice to prosecute Trump's enemies. A campaign of revenge and retribution. Eliminate the civil service. Hire tens of thousands of civil servants that are running only because they support Trump. They have to take a loyalty oath to Trump. Folks, that's not the United States of America.
It goes on for 900 pages. We've never seen anything like this. And it's not a joke.
Today, I'm going to start by laying out the first 100 days of my second term. Here it is.
The first bill I'm going to introduce will restore Roe v. Wade to make the law of the land.
I will sign the John Lewis Voting Rights Act and the Freedom to Vote Act. We're going to stop Trump from cutting Social Security and Medicare. We'll expand and strengthen Social Security, Medicare. Here's how we're going to do it: by making the rich pay their fair share.
We're going to end medical debt. By that I mean, we've already made sure medical debt can no longer be put on your credit report. We're going to raise the federal minimum wage. We're going to pass the PRO Act and end union busting once and for all. And I'm going to ban assault weapons again. I did it once. I'm going to do it again.
No one making less than $400,000 will pay a penny more in federal taxes. I don't know many people making $400,000, and I know there is no one here, but I want to be clear that I wasn't going to be taxing anyone who was a working man or anything close.
We're going to make billionaires, a thousand in America since the pandemic, pay a minimum income of 25 percent. You know what they pay now? 8.2 percent. What a joke. I'm not making this up because no billionaire should pay a lower tax rate than a teacher, a firefighter, a nurse. That would generate $500 billion in revenue over the next ten years, allowing us to do more for child care, elder care, bring down federal deficit, and do so much more.
My first hundred days of the second term is going to continue to be all about working people in this nation.
I don't work for big oil. I don't work for Big Pharma. I don't work for the National Rifle Association. I work for you. The American people.
Everyone in America is entitled to a fair shot. No guarantees. But a fair shot.
I know I look 40 years old. I'm a little bit older. Hopefully with age comes a little wisdom.
And here's what I know.
I know how to tell the truth.
I know right from wrong.
I know how and I demonstrate how to do this job.
I know Americans want a president, not a dictator.
Joe Biden:
I think the United States and the world is at an inflection point when the things that happen in the next several years are gonna determine what the next six, seven decades are gonna be like. And who's gonna be able to hold NATO together like me? Who's gonna be able to be in a position where I'm able to keep the Pacific Basin in a position where we're-- we're at least checkmating China now? Who's gonna-- who's gonna do that? Who has that reach?
And this is true. Biden is the only one who's ever defeated Trump. And Biden's proficiency at foreign relations is simply unmatched because of his decades of experience, relationships, service. Biden is good at politics. Really, really good. But when it comes to unscripted, live television performances, Biden has lost several steps.
Look at him here addressing NAACP today. With his teleprompter and with the energy of a crowd, Biden is on fire as he speaks to the vitality and importance of black people in America: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XrQZYb9q_Yk
But unscripted, Biden can't seem to summon his booming voice. Ronald Reagan's favourite speechwriter has a theory on that:
Ken Khachigian:
What strikes me as ineffective is that they’ve got him glued to the teleprompter. I call it the tyranny of the teleprompter. And what I don’t understand is that Biden was a master of the Senate. The Senate is a debating society, and Joe Biden had years and years of experience debating without notes and being very verbal and everything else, and all of a sudden they put him into the presidency and glued him to a teleprompter.
I think they’ve taken away his self-confidence to a great degree. I saw a few weeks back where he talked to the WNBA champions from last year — it was no more than a three-minute talk in the East Room of the White House — and they had him talking with a teleprompter, and that could have been done just with a few moments of preparation in the Oval Office, saying, ‘Here are the folks, and here are a couple of names you ought to mention.’ I think they’ve chained him to a teleprompter all through the years, and he’s become so accustomed to that he’s lost his flair for the extemporaneous.
He also says the presidency is hard to let go.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/ … n-00168456
Is Biden the only one who can beat Trump? Given campaign finance law, it's either Biden or it's Kamala.
The thing about the CEO donations is false, like most Facebook memes.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/fac … 407354007/
There are no records that any of the executives referred to in the post donated directly to Trump’s presidential campaigns.
SQ21, you questioned who/what MAGA is? MAGA is not that large as ireactions has often pointed out. I'll tell you what Trump's "appeal is." Secure borders, prosecution of criminals, cessation of wokism, wars, and economic/spending*** Here's my Devil's Advocate on that.....
*** is because obviously Trump's spending was over the moon, though largely due to COVID, but his tax cuts ballooned the deficit. He continues to maul Biden on the economy. Biden has been an utter disaster on immigration, and every city in America's local news (which ppl still watch) is inundated with often astonishing violence from migrants who have flooded in over the last 2-3 years. This was an abject and foolish failure. Biden owns it. Criminal prosecutions are not really his purview, although ironically liberals trashed then-Senator Harris because she was the AG and prior prosecutor in California, and get this, she prosecute far too many criminals for their liking! This has been without question a complete mess for liberals since George Floyd and the pandemic, as retail stores continue to go out of business, and 75% of shelves are behind lock and key, with shop lifting running amok. Biden has presided over seemingly unending conflicts in Ukraine and Israel. Again, I understand we don't control either side, but we're PAYING for them! He should either be going all in and backing our allies, or put the brakes on, and end them.
The GOP primary featured a large percentage of Republicans who chose someone other than DJT. That was a big point of concern for him. His shooting and whatnot I really feel has lessened that to almost nil. GOP voters will be more motivated than ever. Biden voters will not, in fact, they are getting more despondent by the week.
Adam Schiff (reportedly on a call) again lamented that Biden will take the House and Senate with him. I cannot speak on the House, but Dem Senate candidates are still holding steading in polling, while Biden disintegrates. Will ballot splitting be that significant? It might but I also think Rep Schiff is not a fool, and has to realize that a depressed Dem turnout will be a disaster for their overall chances.
Biden continues to do one of two things. He either looks frail, or he looks ready to explode while shouting empty platitudes. Nobody knows what he's even proposing anymore. Besides putting "Trump in a Bulls Eye" another brilliant one. His administration is rolling out federal judicial law proposals, including some kind of term limits. Great, fantastic, where were they ON DAY ONE?? Oh, you'll never get 60 votes in the Senate to pass any of them. Trump is even warming to electric vehicles (with Elon Musk's $$$$ rolling in), and both he and JD Vance support Plan B pills and other measures. Again, I ask, what is Biden selling these days? I truly don't know. All he ever does these days is get on TV to speak about the latest mess (his or the country's). This campaign is up against a maniac populist who has his support totally shored up. Biden cannot speak well enough nor avoid gaffes long enough to be heard. Again, ask Mr. Rosenberg what state polls Biden is winning???? Those are the ones that count, the national horse race does NOT! Get out of the way Joe!!! Elevate Kamala, she'll pick Shapiro or Polis, and let's go.
PS: Not sure what the 11th Circuit will do, but no surprise Judge MAGA Cannon tossed the case, she had no intent on ever having it go through. Trump is the luckiest SOB there's ever been.
Biden did a nice interview here with Speedy Moran, unscripted, filmed before the shooting:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJP2zlH2nt8
Biden's thoughts are very interesting and far more worthwhile than aggrieved rants from tedious bores who can't read polls or anything other than clickbait headlines to fuel self-important rantings.
I really don't understand why Biden is staying in. It's either ego or the poll numbers for basically anyone else are worse than we thought. Just like Trump has a ceiling, I think Biden has a floor because enough people don't want to see Trump back in office. But I don't understand being resigned to *maybe* winning 270-268 when a different candidate could possibly do better in the Sun Belt. I don't know if Biden has any chance of winning any of those states. Maybe Kamala Harris can't either, but I think we know that Biden probably can't.
Biden's negatives can't be fixed, and they can only get worse. The more public he is, the more gaffes he makes (intentionally or not), and one of them could make things so much worse. Why not go with someone who might have more negatives but they're negatives that can be spun into positives? Harris has less experience but Biden could campaign for her and talk about how she's ready. Her prosecutor background could convince undecideds that she could be tough on crime or immigration. She could reach women in an election that abortion will be front and center on. Her (relative) youth could help her with younger voters as she might have some sort of idea what the Internet is. She may even own AirPods! I know she doesn't do much better with black voters, but maybe it'd help.
Biden isn't going to get any younger. He isn't going to look any less frail. I know he can do the job, and I understand that he's super sharp in private meetings. But whether he's the best person for the job doesn't matter when it's a popularity contest.
I still think he can win. I just don't know why they don't just make a move. There could be a lot of enthusiasm around a Harris VP pick, and it could be from a state like Pennsylvania (*ahem* pick Shapiro *ahem*) that could get them hugely important electoral votes. I know VP picks don't usually matter, but it could in a close election. Especially if both sides of the ticket would be incredibly unknown for the lateness in the campaign.
I love Biden, and I think he's done a great job. But I truly wish he hadn't decided to run again.
Not me. I'm all in on President Biden.
I wish people were more steadfast in their beliefs and unshakeable against ageism. Because it's all just propaganda by the right trying to get votes their way and change the narrative to why being older than Trump is bad.
"Secure borders"
The man couldn't secure a stage he was standing on...
I wish people were more steadfast in their beliefs and unshakeable against ageism. Because it's all just propaganda by the right trying to get votes their way and change the narrative to why being older than Trump is bad.
I absolutely agree with you, but I just don't know if we're going to get there in time. Biden may have it all put together and may be sharp as a tack, but if people equate his age and appearance with frailty, it doesn't matter. In the 1960 campaign, Nixon and Kennedy participated in a debate that was broadcast on TV and on radio. The majority of people who watched the debate on TV said Kennedy won, but the majority of people who listened to the debate thought that Nixon won. That's because Kennedy was a young, energetic, handsome man, and Nixon looked like he'd stumbled out from under a bridge.
This isn't about policy or talent or experience or capability. For a lot of people, it's simply about appearances. Most people don't think about the president more than a couple times a year. And for that reason, they want to know that the other 360 days of the year, they have confidence that the president is strong and powerful and quick and intelligent. And Biden may be completely on top of things, but he doesn't look like it.
And just like it might not have been fair to Nixon (who lost even though most people liked the words he had to say), it's not fair to Biden that he might be able to do the job but most people may not trust him to do it.
He's the president, and he's the nominee. It's his right to run if he wants, and it's his right to stay in the race if he wants. My concern is that his negatives aren't fixable. How are you going to convince millions of people who watched him stumble his way through a debate that it was a one-time thing? How are you going to convince millions of voters that he may look and sound old but he's really sharp? Particularly when he keeps making gaffes. An hour-long press conference that most people thought he did really well on was derailed by a couple gaffes.
And this isn't just a Biden thing. In the interview where Trump said he'd be a dictator on "day one" - what else did he say in that entire interview? It doesn't matter and no one remembers. If Trump's speech at the RNC talks about peace and prosperity and helping the working class and a bunch of unifying things but ends with "America needs a king, elect me and I'll be president for life", that's all anyone is going to care about. So it does go both ways.
But Biden is essentially risking the future of democracy on the idea that he can look youthful and lively enough over the next few months and that he will have no setbacks or major gaffes. Because the issues that Biden faces are different than the ones that Harris or Newsom or Whitmer would face. In fact, age becomes a strength for a different democratic nominee. You could use ageism against Trump by talking about how old Trump will be. You could energize young people and people of color and people who are nervous about Biden's age and frailty.
I want Biden to win. I want him to be able to write this final chapter of his life his way. I want him to be able to prove all his doubters, myself included, wrong. But this is going to be an incredibly close election, and the closer it is, the more tenuous it is. If Biden wins 270-268, I'm going to be absolutely terrified of whatever Trump has planned for three months. Because if Trump can convince anyone to give him one electoral vote, it's over. If any of the guardrails that held up in 2020 collapse, Trump will win even if Biden gets to 270.
So getting to 270 may not be enough. If Wisconsin flips after the election, I want Arizona to be there to keep Biden at 270. If Michigan flips, I want Georgia to be there. The problem with 2020 is that Trump needed to flip multiple states before January 20. If it's 270-268, Trump only needs to flip any one state with his fraud nonsense, and it's over.
There's so much on the line, and Biden needs to be 100% sure that he's the best chance that Democrats have. Otherwise, Biden is going to spend the rest of his days as a pariah for stubbornly staying in a race he couldn't win. He can do so much damage to his legacy when he could've already cemented it.
RNC ratings on first night down 21% from 2016
https://www.axios.com/2024/07/17/rnc-ni … ium=social
The first night of the Republican National Convention (RNC) drew 18.13 million viewers Monday night, up slightly from 2020, but down 21% from 2016, according to Nielsen.
Why it matters: Monday's convention marked former president Trump's first public appearance since an assassination attempt against him Saturday evening.
Trump also announced Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance as his running mate on Monday.
Zoom in: A total of 12 broadcast and cable networks showed the Milwaukee event live from 10pm to 11pm ET, when the biggest speeches occurred.
Fox News drew the most viewers (6.85 million) among the major cable and broadcast news networks, followed by ABC (2.28 million), NBC (2,24 million), CBS (1.82 million), MSNBC (1.27 million) and CNN (1.11 million).
As with the debate and most TV news events, the vast majority of viewers (75%) were over 55-years-old.
What we're watching: Vance is slated to speak at the RNC on Wednesday, marking his first major national address as a political figure. Trump is scheduled to speak Thursday.
Oh dear God...
President Joe Biden has tested positive for Covid-19
On Senate and House Maneuvers:
Senator Elizabeth Warren has explained how, if Democrats can regain even a narrow majority of the House and keep the Senate and White House, they can restore Roe v. Wade by filibuster suspension.
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/477 … on-rights/
Why Polling is Off:
Individual swing state polls show Trump in the lead by 1 - 5 points.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4 … ng-states/
Polls self-advertise as being within 3 - 5 points of error in either direction to begin with. But when was the last time anyone here answered a phone call from an unknown caller? Or reviewed a text from an unknown contact? What demographic even answers these polls?
Generally, it's older and more conservative respondents with a grudge to express and an axe to grind. 3 - 5 points, as a margin of error in 2024, seems far too low as a self-reported margin. The range of error is likely much higher and now weighted towards conservatism.
There's also the fact that after an event that diminishes enthusiasm for a party (like Biden's ghastly debate or Trump getting convicted), voters on one side or the other will respond less to polling queries. Then pollsters engage in some labyrinth mathematical gimcrackery to try to balance these slanted figures.
In the end, polls were repeatedly and increasingly wrong in 2016, 2018, 2020 and 2022. Hilary Clinton's lead in 2016 was within the realm of a 3 - 5 point polling error. Biden's lead in 2020 was overcounted by 1 percent while Trump's support was undercounted by about 3.3 percent. Why? Because in the severely anti-Trump environment of 2020, Trump voters were under-responding.
In 2022, the midterm elections anticipated, from polling, a massive red wave to wipe Democrats out. It didn't happen. Why?
Simon Rosenberg:
In 2022, there was an effort—and this has been documented again and again—by Republicans to flood the polling averages with bad polling, to push the polling averages to the right, which was then successful.
The entire political commentary in the final month before the election settled on the red wave. Shane Goldmacher wrote one in the New York Times.
I was mocked and attacked by Nate Silver, by Dave Wasserman, and by all these other folks.
Part of the reason I got the election right when almost nobody else did was that I separated out the Republican-heavy polling from the independent polling. And what we saw consistently is that, in the independent polling and independent-media polling, the election looked close and competitive.
So, if you wanted to see a close and competitive election, there was a lot of data backing that up. If you look at the averages, you’re going to be misled. You’re going to be misled about what’s happening. If you take out these Republican-funded polls, then the rest of the polling was pretty good.
And the critical thing to recognize is that the challenge we are having with polling right now is that it isn’t acknowledging the tension in the data. Not all the polling is saying the same thing.
People are just choosing one piece of the data, or are using averages. If you have one CNN poll with Trump up six points, and one ABC poll with Biden up five, the average is Trump up by one point. But neither of the polls actually say that.
The average creates a new reality that doesn’t exist in either of the two polls. You have to be more conservative about your judgment.
What we have to get beyond is the idea that there is an actual number where there is certainty about where the race is. That is fool’s gold.
Rosenberg's view in April was:
In 2022 when I weeded out the GOP polls I saw a close, competitive election. In 2024 when I weed out the GOP polls I see a close, competitive election.
https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/abor … ncouraging
Today, Rosenberg concedes that Trump has an advantage at present, but hardly an insurmountable one:
Simon Rosenberg:
We now have a few days of polling after the events of the weekend and the race remains remarkably stable, close and competitive (all polls can be found on 538).
Biden remains 2 points down on 538’s average. The Congressional Generic is back in positive territory and has been encouraging for us these past few weeks. Senate polling continues to hold. We’ve had polls this week with Biden up in MI and WI and down just 2 in NC.
As we discussed yesterday, JD Vance may be good for Trump’s fundraising, but he is not good for him electorally. The 538 forecast this morning has Biden at 277.
Here’s the RNC Chair yesterday saying “there is no red wave.” For there isn’t, and Rs got heavily burned by their bullshit polls and wishful thinking in 2022. The election is remarkably stable, close and competitive, with Trump, perhaps, having a slight advantage.
From my read over the last few weeks the Trump campaign understands they have a lot of work to do to win. They know they are not at 270 Electoral College votes in current polling.
I am optimistic we can win this November; but if the President is going to win he is going to need to do far more to assuage the legitimate doubts many Democrats have about his candidacy, and all of us will have to come together soon, for a divided, fractious Democratic Party will lose the 2024 election.
On Biden:
Bernie Sanders is a cantankerous old crank. As a cantankerous old crank myself, Bernie is my standard bearer. Bernie is standing by Biden.
Bernie Sanders on Biden:
I think people should see as a very positive thing, is that despite the disastrous debate, my understanding in looking at these polls is he’s not any worse off today than he was before.
Which tells me that there are a lot of people who are not enthusiastic about voting for Donald Trump.
And given these really horrific several weeks that Biden has had since the debate, where Democrats are busy attacking him, the media is busy attacking him, if he’s not any worse off today than he was before the debate, I think that he has a very good chance to win.
I have been critical of the Biden campaign—above and beyond the debate, which everybody understands was a disaster.
The truth of the matter is Biden’s record, in my view, is the strongest record of any President in modern American history.
The American people are hurting. Sixty per cent of our people live paycheck to paycheck. Young people are worried, appropriately, about climate change; women are worried about their reproductive rights.
What the President has got to do is get out there and say, “You know what? You reëlect me, give me a Democratic House, give me a Democratic Senate, and let me tell you what we’re going to do.”
Did you happen to hear the speech in Detroit on Friday? I thought that was, between you and me, an excellent speech.
Biden's Speech: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XqLj917Qu3c
And I think it was the kind of speech that he needs to take all over this country.
He talked about an agenda for the first hundred days, which speaks to the needs of a long-forgotten working class in this country. And he’s prepared to take on powerful special interests. If he does that, he’s going to win this election.
I’m not aware that anyone thinks that Joe Biden is the best candidate in the history of the world, or that he’s an ideal candidate, and nobody will argue with you that he has a... [trails off]
He admitted it. Sometimes he gets confused about names. You’re right—sometimes he doesn’t put three sentences together. It is true.
But the reality of the moment is, in my view, he is the best candidate the Democrats have for a variety of reasons, and trying, in an unprecedented way, to take him off the ticket would do a lot more harm than good.
I would much prefer to have somebody who can’t put three sentences together who is setting forth an agenda that speaks to the needs of working-class people: raising the minimum wage, making it easier for workers to join unions, dealing with the existential threat of climate change, protecting women’s reproductive rights, building millions of units of affordable housing.
The American people are not stupid and they understand that substance matters.
They understand what you have accomplished and what you want to accomplish is enormously important.
If you want to make the case that Biden is not the perfect candidate for a dozen different reasons, go ahead, and you’re right, but, tell me, you’ve got a better path forward?
I don’t think you do, because I don’t think there is a better path forward.
I think he is the best candidate, and I think if he runs a strong, effective campaign focused on the needs of the working class of this country, he will win.
And I think there’s a chance he could win big.
Choose Your Opponent:
As a Canadian, my opinion doesn't mean much in terms of an actual vote. I am not all in on Biden. But I am all in on democracy.
Voting is not about choosing our standard bearer. More often, voting is about choosing your preferred opponent. Let's say all the leaks about Biden's diminishment are true and not weighted against him.
Who do you think is more likely to pressure into meaningful values and action when it comes to international war, manage foreign relations, respond to future pandemics, battle for a fairer tax code, advocate for women's health, relieve medical debt and resist corporate gouging in farming, pharmaceuticals, guns and technology?
What has Donald Trump ever really done for anyone in or out of office that made anyone else's life better?
I remember how in 2020, Twitter was filled with accounts of Trump settling random strangers' health and housing bills, none shared by the supposed recipients of his generosity because these stories were obviously all lies, many perpetuated by a former member of this community who clearly went insane.
President Joe Biden is good at his job. He ended the war in Afghanistan, disastrously, but it ended. He signed the American Rescue Plan that kept progress on jobs and wages. He brought child poverty to a record low by expanding the child tax credit (it's expired and he hopes to renew it permanently).
He signed $370 billion towards fighting climate change and $280 billion into US semiconductor manufacturing and an inclusive science, technology, engineering and mathematics workforce. He released intelligence of Russia's invasion plans for Ukraine to prevent Russia from claiming the war was provoked and united the G7 nations in sanctions while defending Ukraine.
He mobilized the mass vaccination campaign against COVID-19 and shots became available at any pharmacy within months. The Canadian prime minister was unable to do the same with Biden's speed and drive.
Biden rebuilt America as the leader of the free world after Donald Trump turned away. He secured marriage protections for same-sex and interracial couples and ensured transgender Americans could access supports and services. He confirmed the first Black woman to the Supreme Court, decriminalized soft drugs, and four out of five people can find medical insurance now for $10 a month or less.
He spun the mangled, "Let's Go Brandon" attack into the hilarious and absurd "Dark Brandon" meme.
But Joe Biden is a problematic person and I am not in favour of hagiography. He has a lengthy and troubling history of inappropriately touching women and smelling their hair because he is from a generation that was taught to see women as commodities instead of human beings. He's confronted it. He's changed it.
As president, he supplied weapons to Israel in a war that has targeted civilians, justifying it by hoping that complicity in war will enable contributing to the peace. He permitted the murder of Jamal Khashoggi to go unchallenged and maintained friendship with Mohammed bin Salman, the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, to maintain the oil-dependent US economy. So, he is a politician.
He was, in his youth and adulthood, a loudmouth and a bully and a plagiarist. He was a coward who refused to pursue justice for Anita Hill because he feared the Supreme Court and Clarence Thomas. Two of his children are drug addicts which speaks to a serious failure of parenting.
These are all dark and glaring flaws in a glowing career of public service. But the Joe Biden of 2020 to 2024 is an older and more measured man who has a lot to offer this world.
Joe Biden:
My son, like a lot of people you know at home, had a drug problem. He's overtaken it. He's fixed it. He's worked on it. And I'm proud of him.
I'm proud of my son.
He may mumble and he may shuffle and he may struggle to elucidate. But he has fought for unions, for working class people, for diabetics, for seniors, for veterans, for students, for the environment and he is clearly open and eager for new ideas and willing to change to face new challenges.
He has done terrible things and accepted the political and personal cost in the hopes that America would be better positioned to survive and lead the peace. He has adopted new ideas and updated his values to meet a the challenges of a changing world.
Ultimately, if you believe in democracy and that voters should choose their leaders and that the middle class is vital to America, then Joe is at the very least, the barely-tolerable option over the disastrous option.
A vote for Donald Trump is a vote to have no more voting.
That said -- I respect that Temporal Flux has the right to believe in term limits, and he has the right to write his father's name on the ballot. Some might write in Jill Stein or Andrew Yang. I would consider that a neutral act.
Joe Biden is not my standard bearer. His record is too troubled for that. I don't much care for who he used to be. But I do mostly like the Joe Biden I've seen since 2019. And if I were choosing my opponent, I would choose Joe Biden.
Joe Biden:
Donald Trump. What a sick fuck.
What a fucking asshole the guy is.
Oh dear God...
President Joe Biden has tested positive for Covid-19
From the White House:
President Biden is vaccinated, boosted, and he is experiencing mild symptoms following a positive COVID-19 test.
He will be returning to Delaware where he will self-isolate and will continue to carry out all of his duties fully during that time.
A note from the President's Doctor:
The President presented this afternoon with upper respiratory symptoms, to include rhinorhea (runny nose) and non-productive cough, with general mailaise. He felt okay for his first event of the day, but given that he was not feeling better, point of care testing for COVID-19 was conducted, and the results were positive for the COVID-19 virus.
Given this, the President will be self-isolating in accordance with CDC guidance for symptomatic individuals.
PCR confirmation testing will be pending. His symptoms remain mild, his respiratory rate is normal at 16, his temperature is normal at 97.8 and his pulse oximetry is normal at 97%. The President has received his first dose of Paxlovid. He will be self-isolating at his home in Rehoboth.
I would like this to be the excuse Biden takes to drop out, but I don't know. If he didn't drop out with the Parkinsons rumors, I don't think he'd drop out for this.
I haven't seen many polls with Harris doing better than Biden. I wonder if the party could put together a giant fundraiser to seed a Shapiro/Whitmer ticket. Shapiro is super popular in Pennsylvania, and Whitmer could help win Michigan. If you get those two, you just need Wisconsin and NE-2 to win. If you could launch with a huge $20-30 million event and then try to get as much free advertising as possible. I don't know what they'd need to do to get Harris on board, but I still think if Biden resigned and Harris got to be president, even if for only a few months, it could work?
I would like this to be the excuse Biden takes to drop out, but I don't know. If he didn't drop out with the Parkinsons rumors, I don't think he'd drop out for this.
I haven't seen many polls with Harris doing better than Biden. I wonder if the party could put together a giant fundraiser to seed a Shapiro/Whitmer ticket. Shapiro is super popular in Pennsylvania, and Whitmer could help win Michigan. If you get those two, you just need Wisconsin and NE-2 to win. If you could launch with a huge $20-30 million event and then try to get as much free advertising as possible. I don't know what they'd need to do to get Harris on board, but I still think if Biden resigned and Harris got to be president, even if for only a few months, it could work?
This seems to apply and conveys my opinion, and spares me the trouble of typing more:
Simon Rosenberg:
I hope this weekend the President and his team to do one more final assessment of the political landscape given the tumult of the past few weeks, review the latest data, talk one more time to party leaders, and perhaps most importantly, do one more final assessment of whether an 81 year old man who has been struggling a bit can, in the next four months, be both the President of the United States in a very challenging time and a successful candidate for President in a race we are not winning right now.
If the answer is yes I will be all in and work as I have, with all of you, to go win this thing for our democracy, our freedoms and our future.
And if the President chooses to pass the baton I will be all in and work as I have, with all of you, to go win this thing for our democracy, our freedoms and our future.
Nancy Pelosi, Hakeem Jeffries, and Chuck Schumer have all privately told Biden he needs to step aside. He will lose and take the party down with him. He's reacted defensively, and rather than providing a medical certification that he's not suffering from any kind of malady, besides COVID, he babbled that only a medical condition would cause him to quit. Terrific.
As I have said before, the polling is often lazy and half assed, resulting in bad sampling. However, there's also internal polling the parties do. Democratic leadership have seen them, and they are quite fearful. I cannot see Biden quitting now. He's literally ignored the pleas of everyone BUT the Bernie Sanders left, who voter wise don't like him at all. "Genocide Joe" they call him. The mouthpiece of the DNC is Jamie Harrison, a fraud from South Carolina who hoodwinked millions from stupid Democratic donors pretending he had any chance in a Senate election in SC which he got blown out in. There's almost no one still backing Joe. It's absolutely insane. I've never seen anything like it.
As for the Trump shooting, the reporting on how badly the Secret Service performed there is plain shocking. The shooter was marked and known but allowed to hang around. So many red flags missed. They reacted with delays and poor coordination. The star of this mess was a female agent who looked totally overwhelmed. Another situation where the Biden administration looks amateurist.
On a tangent:
A fond remembrance of simpler times with Leslie and Joe:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rXNDKeVcwf4
I guess it's as good a time as any:
Grizzlor and pilight - I know you're a sample size of two, but would you feel more comfortable voting for Harris over Biden? Both of you have been pretty critical of Biden as a candidate, but does Harris ease your mind?
To me, Harris has four major positives. In this order (I think).
1. She's not Trump
2. She's significantly younger than Biden (and Trump)
3. She's not Biden (this is more for "double haters" of both Biden and Trump than anything about Biden himself - that's more #2).
4. She's a fresh face and a mostly-unknown quantity.
I think she's going to carry a lot of (if not all) of the Biden voters. I suppose there are Biden voters that might like Trump more than her, but I don't know how much that is. People that hate Trump are going to vote for her. People that don't like Trump or Biden might vote for her (instead of not voting, voting for RFK, leaving the top blank, voting another 3rd party, or holding their nose and voting for Trump). That's where #4 comes in - she might get people who would vote for literally anyone but Biden or Trump.
That leaves two groups of people up for grabs. People that currently would vote for Trump over Biden because Biden is too old (and not any sort of attachment to Trump). Harris is younger and less crazy than Trump - she could flip some people. And then independents that haven't made up their mind. I assume RFK voters are either voting for RFK because they like him or because they don't like Trump or Biden so those are covered in the previous paragraph. Same goes for people voting another 3rd party.
Harris' negatives are:
1. Her current approval ratings
2. Her previous unlikability
3. Her connection to Biden
4. People don't know who she is
Do people not approve of Harris because of anything about her, or is it strictly tied to similar approval ratings for Biden (#3)? If people got to know her (#4), would they like her more or less (#2).
To me, these are all basically related. Can they humanize Harris enough to make her seem strong but also human? It's a tough tightrope for women, and they failed with Hillary. They need to make her likeable but not bitchy. They need to make her strong but not too strong. They can lean on her prosecutorial background to try and appeal to law and order independents, but they can't lean too hard on it (because of her track record of going after minorities in California and her record on the border).
And I think most importantly, could they keep her tied enough to Biden to get Biden voters while also distancing herself enough from Biden to get away with calling this a "change in direction" to certain undecided / Trump voters? If people like the direction of the country but not Biden because of his age, it needs to feel like the passing of the torch. For people that don't like the direction of the country (but may not like Trump either), it needs to feel like a pivot. Can they do all that? In less than four months?
Now to be fair, four months can be a lifetime in today's climate. I don't think its not enough time to endear her to people. But they're going to have to be efficient, and they're going to have to be quick. And they're going to need to take advantage of all the free publicity they can get from anyone.
Just curious where you both fall on this.
I'm not crazy about Harris but I would prefer her over Biden. But it's too late in the cycle to make a move, IMO. They should have been talking Biden out of running again a year ago or more.
It's not optimal, but four months is an eternity nowadays. Four months ago, Nikki Haley was still in the race. The supreme court decided on Trump and the 14th amendment. Dune 2 had just come out. Ghostbusters Frozen Empire hadn't come out. Those things all feel like forever ago.
There's enough time for the media to introduce Harris and for people to get to know her so much they get sick of her.
In four months in 2015, Trump went from unannounced to ahead in most of the polls. I think there's time. I just don't know if they have enough to work with to really turn her around from a publicity standpoint. They'd really need to have a great plan, and these are Democrats we're talking about.
It's not about the amount of time, it's about the process. Democrats will see it as a bait and switch. Biden says he's running all through the primaries so there's no real opposition then drops out right before the convention, assuring Harris is the only one with organization enough to secure the nomination. Dem voters will feel they didn't get the opportunity to choose the candidate they wanted through the democratic primary process and a lot of them will either stay home or protest vote for the Greens or someone. All the talk about "threat to democracy" will ring very hollow when you subvert the democratic process to hand pick a nominee that many will feel couldn't get the nomination any other way.
I mean maybe. I think Democrats are mostly pretty focused on beating Trump by any means necessary. I think it comes down to messaging. If they somehow do something without Biden's permission and Biden comes out against it publicly, I think that would be a bad look. Or if Biden was really popular and there was a lot of enthusiasm about him. For example, if they ran Hillary in 2008 instead of Obama because of concerns about race instead of age.
But I think most Democrats are okay with the change, even if it's to someone that isn't Biden or Harris. If they manufacture something like Newsom/Shapiro, I could see them losing women or black voters. But even then, I think the messaging would have to be upfront and consistent.
But Biden is unpopular, even with Democrats. I think people are ready to turn the page, and I don't think there would be much of an uproar, especially if it was Harris. But I agree that there might be an issue with the Democrats running someone that no one has ever voted for. It's a bit of a Gerald Ford situation.
There is a lot of talk that Biden is ready to step down. The main issue, as I see it: high dollar donors are refusing to donate any more money to Biden which effectively shutters his ability to campaign. They will, however, donate to a campaign where Kamala Harris is at the top of the ticket.
https://www.axios.com/2024/07/18/presid … -democrats
I would be sad if Joe Biden stepped down and see a lot of challenges if the Democratic Party goes in that direction. I would be heartened if Kamala Harris stepped up and see just as many challenges (albeit different ones) if she becomes the Democratic nominee. There is no smooth sailing for either course.
However... Joe Biden has lost the ability to say "ballot box" without mangling it into "battle box".
I take no pleasure in saying this, but if a candidate can't pronounce a basic and essential term like "ballot", that candidate will have serious issues conveying the Democratic Party's platform, goals, values and the good they will accomplish for the working class of America.
Joe Biden is good at politics. He's very good at being president. I do think Joe Biden could win in November and win big, as Bernie Sanders said. But to win, Biden needs the party unified behind him and his donors funding him and he has neither. If he has a solution to that and stays in the race, that would be splendid. That support doesn't seem to be there, and the funding doesn't seem to be there either. He may not have the financial and logistical resources needed to win.
It's painful to say that.
The Bulwark, a website of editorials from former Republicans who turned against the GOP when it became the party of Trump, has offered a strong plan for how Kamala Harris could build on what Joe Biden has established.
Kamala Harris: The Future Is Now
https://www.thebulwark.com/p/kamala-har … ure-is-now
President Kamala Harris: Should she run as Biden’s vice president, or as the incumbent president?
https://www.thebulwark.com/p/president-kamala-harris
QuinnSlidr is a fervent and ardent Biden supporter. I would hazard a guess that QuinnSlidr's fealty is not actually to Joe Biden, but to truth, justice, and the better tomorrow that democracy promises. I would offer the suggestion that QuinnSlidr's inherent conviction is that America should be led by an elected president and not a dictator for life. I would posit that QuinnSlidr's true loyalty is to the American Dream.
I would hypothesize that QuinnSlidr's vote is not to a person, but to the belief that all people are created equal and imbued with certain inalienable rights, among them the right to life, liberty, happiness, and that James Brown is the godfather of soul -- and that QuinnSlidr will support the candidate who is best-positioned or least-opposing to that Dream -- whether that person is Joe Biden or Kamala Harris or somebody else.
Anyway.
Joe Biden:
Donald Trump. What a sick fuck.
What a fucking asshole the guy is.
As it becomes more likely, I am sad for Joe Biden. I would've liked for him to go out on his own terms, but life is not usually so fair. I still think Biden's story could end up with a happy political ending. If he does bow out, I hope that he continues to campaign for Harris, and I hope he gets to advise her if she wins. He would've been in a similar situation in four years, and if he's still as sharp as some of his advisors say, he might be a better advisor than a candidate. He might be a great president, but the election process doesn't really work that way.
I'm nervous about Harris' pros and cons, but I do think the party and the country is ready to turn a page. Women's rights (abortion and IVF) are huge in this election, and it might finally be time for a female president. I don't know what it means for 2025 or 2028 or any of the years in between, but hopefully everyone that stands against Trump can stand behind whoever the nominee is.
*******
One thing I read in my trip around the Internet - this campaign might be uphill either way. What if Harris doesn't want her one shot at president to be now? What if part of the problem is that she doesn't want to do it? Or if her advisors want her to wait until 2024?
I assume Newsom would want to do it regardless. I haven't read anything about Harris not wanting it from any official sources, but it could be an interesting way to bypass her. Then it would just be whether or not the money can work.
The world could use an Ambassador Biden with his talent for foreign relations. These are dark and desperate times.
**
Part of good leadership is succession planning. And Biden is a good leader. He chose a vice president who was capable of stepping in for him should he be incapacitated or should he stand down.
What if Harris doesn't want her one shot at president to be now? What if part of the problem is that she doesn't want to do it? Or if her advisors want her to wait until 2024?
That's not going to happen. Harris is the only other candidate who can make use of the current Biden-Harris campaign funds.
There is a lot of talk that Biden is ready to step down. The main issue, as I see it: high dollar donors are refusing to donate any more money to Biden which effectively shutters his ability to campaign. They will, however, donate to a campaign where Kamala Harris is at the top of the ticket.
https://www.axios.com/2024/07/18/presid … -democratsI would be sad if Joe Biden stepped down and see a lot of challenges if the Democratic Party goes in that direction. I would be heartened if Kamala Harris stepped up and see just as many challenges (albeit different ones) if she becomes the Democratic nominee. There is no smooth sailing for either course.
However... Joe Biden has lost the ability to say "ballot box" without mangling it into "battle box".
I take no pleasure in saying this, but if a candidate can't pronounce a basic and essential term like "ballot", that candidate will have serious issues conveying the Democratic Party's platform, goals, values and the good they will accomplish for the working class of America.
Joe Biden is good at politics. He's very good at being president. I do think Joe Biden could win in November and win big, as Bernie Sanders said. But to win, Biden needs the party unified behind him and his donors funding him and he has neither. If he has a solution to that and stays in the race, that would be splendid. That support doesn't seem to be there, and the funding doesn't seem to be there either. He may not have the financial and logistical resources needed to win.
It's painful to say that.
The Bulwark, a website of editorials from former Republicans who turned against the GOP when it became the party of Trump, has offered a strong plan for how Kamala Harris could build on what Joe Biden has established.
Kamala Harris: The Future Is Now
https://www.thebulwark.com/p/kamala-har … ure-is-nowPresident Kamala Harris: Should she run as Biden’s vice president, or as the incumbent president?
https://www.thebulwark.com/p/president-kamala-harrisQuinnSlidr is a fervent and ardent Biden supporter. I would hazard a guess that QuinnSlidr's fealty is not actually to Joe Biden, but to truth, justice, and the better tomorrow that democracy promises. I would offer the suggestion that QuinnSlidr's inherent conviction is that America should be led by an elected president and not a dictator for life. I would posit that QuinnSlidr's true loyalty is to the American Dream.
I would hypothesize that QuinnSlidr's vote is not to a person, but to the belief that all people are created equal and imbued with certain inalienable rights, among them the right to life, liberty, happiness, and that James Brown is the godfather of soul -- and that QuinnSlidr will support the candidate who is best-positioned or least-opposing to that Dream -- whether that person is Joe Biden or Kamala Harris or somebody else.
Anyway.
Joe Biden:
Donald Trump. What a sick fuck.
What a fucking asshole the guy is.
I am fine with Kamala Harris. If this is the only way we can get a woman President...so be it.
I just really wish that Dems didn't give in to all of the right wing propaganda posted to Twitter so easily. Because that's really all it is. It's age discrimination and ageist propaganda that's protected by law Federally and in the state of California. I don't see a bigger workplace than the Presidency. Really broke my heart seeing Adam Schiff give in. He's lost my vote for life.
But I saw that Obama is now bringing up concerns about President Biden's candidacy. I'll listen to Barack. And I'll still vote for Kamala if she's put in President Biden's place.
I just wish it didn't have to be this way. President Biden doesn't deserve to be forced out the way he is being forced out.
My only hope is that Harris picks Buttigieg as her running mate for VP. That will be a powerful ticket.
My friend Kate has been struggling with student loans for awhile and occasionally voices grief that she has paid so much into them and yet the bill has not gone away and has cost her far more than the original tuition fees. She was looking at another five years of payments.
She got a letter this morning saying her student debt has been entirely forgiven. Joe Biden changed her life.
He is a good president.
That's not going to happen. Harris is the only other candidate who can make use of the current Biden-Harris campaign funds.
I don't disagree, but you can see how Harris may not want to have her only chance at president be a 4-month rushed campaign where she needs to come back in the polls. If she loses, her political career is probably over and the Democrats will pick someone else. If Biden doesn't drop out, she's at least in the frontrunner conversation in 2028. If she's passed over and the new ticket loses, she might still have a shot a la Biden in 2020.
I know the Democrats need her for the money, but what if she doesn't want to run?
I find it really strange that you think anyone other than Kamala Harris has the funding and stature to run against Donald Trump this close to the election and win. Any nominee who isn't Harris would come out of the DNC starting with $0 in their campaign account, and Donald Trump will win.
I find it really strange that you are aware of Project 2025 and the Supreme Court granting full immunity to presidents, and yet, you think there would be any real election or any election at all in 2028 for Kamala Harris to run in if Donald Trump were to win in 2024.
Anyway.
During Biden's vice presidency, he met Harvard student government. The student body vice president introduced himself to Biden by name and job title. Biden responded: "Isn't it a bitch, that vice president thing?"
Biden was making a grim joke about how the vice presidency has no official power beyond what the actual president deigns appropriate; that the vice president is an advisor whose influence is dependent entirely upon their personal relationship with the president. The only official role of the vice president is to become the president should the president step down or be incapacitated and to break Senate tie votes.
Anyone who accepts the job of vice president accepts it because they are ready to be the actual president. Vice President Harris knows how dangerous Donald Trump is. She knows that if Biden steps down, she has to step up. That's the job. And she knows it. She will do her duty.
I find it really strange that you think anyone other than Kamala Harris has the funding and stature to run against Donald Trump this close to the election and win. Any nominee who isn't Harris would come out of the DNC starting with $0 in their campaign account, and Donald Trump will win.
I think there are a few things that would happen if Newsom/Whitmer was announced as a ticket (as an example). I think as soon as the campaign was announced, they'd get $XX million in "seed money" from various big-money donors. People are withholding their donations to Biden, and those donations would go to the new candidate. Second, I think they'd announce a star-studded campaign event similar to the Obama/Clinton one and the Obama/Clooney one to get them another huge influx in cash.
Then, I would expect them to take advantage of the infrastructure they already have. Biden's campaign has staffers and offices already built up. They'd need new signs and t-shirts and stuff like that, but a lot of the work has already been done. I would think many of the ads that have been created could be easily reworked to say the new ticket's names.
Finally, Hillary Clinton had an insane more money than Donald Trump in 2016, but it didn't matter. Know why? Trump took advantage of a ton of free coverage. Why pay millions for campaign ads when the networks hold your rallies live? I think the new ticket would need to take a page out of Trump's book and hold rallies and televised events and get as much free advertising as possible. They should do interviews with anyone and everyone. They'd need to hit the streets and hustle.
I don't know if that's enough. But as silly as it sounds, I don't think the $90-million+ war chest is necessarily the number one reason to pick one candidate over the other. I think for the right ticket, plenty of money is out there.
I think you're right that they'll take the war chest and go with Harris. But if they don't think she can win, I think they could raise a ton of money really fast, and I think the media would give them tens of millions in free advertising if they wanted it.
I find it really strange that you are aware of Project 2025 and the Supreme Court granting full immunity to presidents, and yet, you think there would be any real election or any election at all in 2028 for Kamala Harris to run in if Donald Trump were to win in 2024.
I have to shift my mental energy for the sake of my kids. I can't spend any more time doomscrolling or worrying about the nightmare because the nightmare is almost here. Outside of hoping that the Democratic ticket can win, I need to try to think optimistically about how a second Trump presidency could go. I have to consider the idea that maybe Trump would be satisfied being back in power and having won that he won't go after his political enemies. I have to consider the idea that he won't further dismantle democracy and that the other two branches of the government can keep him in check if he oversteps. I have to hope that something distracts him enough that he can't do stuff like pull out of NATO or deport millions of people or throw liberals in camps or whatever.
I have to hope that we've built up this monster in our heads and that it won't be that bad. And that after four years maybe he'll be too old to stay in power or he won't want to do it knowing that he's okay.
My kids are going to live with the consequences of whatever Donald Trump does, and I have to hope that they won't grow up in a world that's scary. So the closer to a Trump presidency we come to, the more optimistic I'm going to try and be about it. Because for the sake of my kids, I have to hope they get to grow up in a world that's as safe as the one I grew up in.
In the meantime, I qualify for expedited immigration into Canada and I'm looking into that.
I have to be honest here, Slider_Quinn21: My main concern regarding the election is you. If America becomes a messed up dystopia ruled by Donald Trump as a dictator for life, it will be very difficult to get your opinion on the DEXTER prequel or the new DAREDEVIL series.
As for moving to Canada: I live in Toronto which I consider a wonderful city. I cannot in good conscience encourage you to move here as it's far too expensive.
Joe Biden:
"We beat Medicare." "We beat them at the battle box." "Now I want to hand it over to the president of Ukraine, who has as much courage as he has determination. Ladies and gentlemen, President Putin. President Putin -- we're going to beat President Putin. President Zelenskyy." "Look, I wouldn’t have picked Vice President Trump to be Vice President, to — think she was not qualified to be president."
Bernie Sanders:
"Sometimes he gets confused about names. You’re right—sometimes he doesn’t put three sentences together. It is true."
The world sees President Joe Biden for what he is: a good man. A man of conviction and commitment. A young man who was a loudmouth bully in his youth, who was reshaped and remade by tragedy and horror into an old man with wisdom, patience, compassion and a burning sense of duty and responsibility to the American Dream.
A president whose administration saw a dedicated pandemic response, a rescued economy, child poverty alleviated, student debt forgiven, an expansion of health and supports for veterans, protections for the LGBTQ+ community, and more people medically insured than ever before.
The world knows that Biden's dedication is only undermined by Biden's health. He burned away his vitality to make America a little warmer, kinder and fairer over the course of five decades of public service.
Biden rescued my friend Kate from exhausting student debt. He saved her. He'll always be in my heart for that.
Biden's vision, in my view, is unfortunately defeated not by a lack of will or belief or commitment, but by a tired body in need of rest and care. By the reality that Joe Biden has accomplished almost everything anyone could ever hope to achieve in politics. And by the overall feeling of his party that if they have Biden for four more months on the campaign trail, Democrats may find it very difficult to convey to their constituents how their platform will serve and support the working people of the country.
Captain America probably gets tired looking at Joe Biden's resumé.
I think the world will see that Biden is a good leader who knows that good leaders have vision, determination, practical strategy and a succession plan. I think the world will see Biden pass the torch with honour.
(Or I'm wrong and he stays in the race and gets his donors to come through. I don't know the future. If I did, I would probably have a platform other than typing my views on a message board for a TV show from the 90s of which its fans only like about 15 of its 88 episodes.)
I have to be honest here, Slider_Quinn21: My main concern regarding the election is you. If America becomes a messed up dystopia ruled by Donald Trump as a dictator for life, it will be very difficult to get your opinion on the DEXTER prequel or the new DAREDEVIL series.
I appreciate that. I'm hoping against hope that the Democrats can win. Whether it be Biden or Harris or Newsom or Hillary Clinton or Michelle Obama or Jimmy Carter or Mark Cuban or whoever. But since it will take six months minimum to immigrate to Canada in the worst case scenario, I would need to live under a second Trump presidency for a decent amount of time. If that happens, I have to hope that either Trump doesn't actively want to destroy the country or that enough people don't want him to destroy the country to stop him.
Too many Republicans that I'd think are smart enough are going along with him and downplaying the seriousness of a threat Trump plays. Maybe they're right. I don't know. We did survive one Trump presidency. We can survive another as long as it doesn't go worse than the first.
Just hoping he loses.
As for moving to Canada: I live in Toronto which I consider a wonderful city. I cannot in good conscience encourage you to move here as it's far too expensive.
I love Toronto. I love Vancouver. I think if we moved it might be to Calgary. Both my wife's job and my job have an office there, and we vacationed in Banff last summer. I haven't actually looked at pricing but when I talked to a Canadian immigration lawyer, that's the place I picked for simplicity's sake.
(Or I'm wrong and he stays in the race and gets his donors to come through. I don't know the future. If I did, I would probably have a platform other than typing my views on a message board for a TV show from the 90s of which its fans only like about 15 of its 88 episodes.)
Biden's campaign came out and admitted that there has been "slippage" in support but that he's staying in the race. If that's the case, I hope he knows something I don't know. That the money will come back if he holds out to the convention. Or that he has a high enough floor of support that he could have a bunch of gaffes and the race could still be won. Or that the sun belt isn't as bad as it looks.
If Biden's ceiling is 270-268, he needs to drop out. I would have a heart attack in the three months before the election if it's 270-268 because I'm much more concerned with Trump winning the presidency through nefarious means than winning it outright. I think anything less than the margin of victory in 2020 would scare me to death, and that needs to be a realistic outcome.
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