In 2016, Trump visited the White House after his victory and President Obama said he and Trump had had an "excellent conversation" and further declared, "We now are going to want to do everything we can to help you succeed because if you succeed, then the country succeeds." That has, in retrospect, been BS, the outgoing president attempting to maintain some civil line of communication with the person who has the upper hand. Behind closed doors, friends of Obama anonymously shared that Obama called Trump "a bullshitter".
President Zelenskyy is naturally attempting to do the same with someone who may be in a position of power over Zelenskyy next year.
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Polls are a mess this year, as they were in 2022 and 2020. I think hard to say if Newsom or Whitmer would defeat Trump because, in my view, they aren't very well-known to America on the scale of a presidential campaign (and I say that as someone who devoured Whitmer's fun autobiography TRUE GRETCH yesterday).
Financially and in terms of visibility, Harris is in the best situation, but I have to note that Harris' human resource and management skills are extremely suspect. I'm reading a lot of concerning things about her ability to hire and retain staff. Still, at this point, anyone against Project 2025 whom donors won't abandon is probably the best/only option.
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No one is happy about ousting Biden from leading their party or keeping Biden at the top of their party. There are no good decisions in this situation, just choices of varying levels of grief and with different and difficult challenges in any direction. No one is happy about turning against Joe as a cold calculation; no one is happy about the challenges of sticking with Joe and the ensuing lack of party and donor support for Joe.
I personally think Joe Biden could, with sufficient donor support, win in November and win big and serve a strong second term. Even if Biden's ability to speak extemporaneously on camera has diminished, his grasp of administration and his team are what produced such a strong and capable presidency despite weak majorities in the House and Senate followed by losing the House. The issue, unfortunately, is that Biden's debate performance was so bad that high dollar donors are no longer willing to commit money towards a Democratic presidential campaign without a different nominee. Without those high dollars, Biden cannot campaign effectively against the Republican campaign.
It makes me feel sad. But being able to speak coherently and off the cuff is a pretty essential capability for an effective campaigner. And this is America we're talking about. People have the right to say they don't want to put their money towards a candidate who has lost their confidence.
If Biden's debate performance had been as passable as his first 2020 debate, we would not be having this conversation. The polls, given how overweighted they are towards conservatism, strike me (and Simon Rosenberg) as showing a close and competitive race that Biden could win if his party and his donors were behind him... and they aren't behind him anymore.
I've learned so much from Joe Biden in four years, watching his campaign, his performance as president, reading his biographies and speeches, and he has so much to offer which is why it's so sad for me to think of him stepping down.
Looking at how Biden's speaking skills have diminished over the last four years, how the rambling but convincing senior of 2020 became the struggling whisperer of 2024 -- my theory -- and it is just a theory:
I think his health has taken a downturn in a subtle but cumulative way since 2022 when Biden at age 79 was infected with COVID-19, followed by a rebound infection. Since then, Biden has had a nagging cough that has never gone away, that clearly gets worse when under strain, that seems to intermittently but frequently affect the volume of his voice and his ability to speak clearly.
There also seem to be frequent moments of fatigue that cause him to lose track when on camera, unscripted, and under pressure. I would posit that the fatigue comes and goes, which is why Biden went into 2023 with the anticipation that he would recover fully in time and leap into a 2024 re-election campaign.
I don't think he ever recovered fully and around March to June 2024, the fatigue began to catch up with him. I think the long-term effects of COVID on an aging body in the most high pressure job in America has had a slow but draining on President Biden's energy and stamina.
In offices, in meetings, in strategy sessions, in all the day to day functions of the presidency, Biden is sharp and capable, sitting in a chair, notes in front of him, advisors informing him. On camera as a performer, however, is where Biden's fatigue siphons energy from his brain and body. He crashed at the debate.
Biden was capable at the NATO press conference. He was moderately capable in an interview with George Stephanopoulos, forceful with Lester Holt, struggling again when responding to Donald Trump getting shot. On camera, with his illness, Biden cannot reliably access the skills that make him a strong diplomat, administrator and leader off camera. It comes and goes and more and more often, it goes.
That's just my theory, of course.
I have hoped that Biden could weather the storm, and maybe he still can, but if he can't -- well, it's the Democratic Party, not the Biden Party. I think the world still needs Joe Biden, but the Biden the world needs might not be President Biden. It might be Ambassador Biden or Advisor to the Secretary of State Biden or Professor Biden or Democratic Campaign Strategist Biden.
