Topic: Deadpool - Will it work?
Next month, the Deadpool movie hits theaters. And like Guardians of the Galaxy before it and like Suicide Squad after it, I think it's going to be a bit of a risk. This is *not* a character that many are familiar with, and those that are seem to worry about how well a character like Deadpool can carry a movie. That Wade works a little better as a supporting character than a main one.
The other issue at hand is the rating. This is a movie that begged to be rated R, but the marketing has only hinted at how violent and profane the movie is going to be (the red band vs green band trailers show a huge discrepancy). R-rated movies, as a rule, make less money. Not only have you cut out a segment of the market, but it's also a segment of the market most likely to see a movie more than once (kids/teenagers). It's also a segment of the market most likely to see a costumed movie.
So while the movie looks exactly the way that a Deadpool movie should look (and has matched almost exactly the look/tone of the test footage that Ryan Reynolds shot a while back), I wonder what kind of money it would be made to be successful. I haven't found an exact figure for the budget, but extremely rough estimates put it between $50-100 million. Let's say that it's $100 million - less than 150 movies ever have made $100 million. Less than 40 have made $150 million. Less than 15 have made $200 million. $200 million being the budget of X-Men: Days of Future Past.
So if Deadpool can make a profit, it probably won't be a huge profit. Is that okay? If the budget really is $50 million and it makes the amount that, say, Elysium made ($93 million) is that a success? Would "success" mean we'd get more "niche" superhero films before the genre's bubble bursts? Do you think it'd have an impact on future DCCU or MCU movies?