pilight wrote:Bail reform is not soft on crime. If a crime is serious enough to hold someone prior to trial, fine. If it's not, fine. There is no situation in which a crime is serious enough to hold someone unless they have money to buy their way out.
Tell that to the NYPD, who are forced to re-arrest the same violent criminals, many migrant gang members, some who have attacked cops, over and over. These criminals are let right back onto the street, and commit further violent crimes. It's a complete disaster. It started from a point of social justice, as yes, many people were held seemingly indefinitely for trial, and could not afford bail. However, it was taken advantage of by lunatic judges from the get-go. The rampant violent crime, played out nightly on local news, in NYC plus a failure to gerrymander, literally handed GOP most of the NY state suburb districts around Manhattan. Including one to the ridiculous George Santos. New Jersey remained blue, because we don't allow that shit here! You attack a cop, you beat up a woman, or you throw someone off a subway platform, you stay in jail, in Jersey.
ireactions wrote:QuinnSlidr wrote:ireactions - You did ask for a representative. The other James above that you mention is not a government rep. smile Otherwise I probably would have included who you did.
Semantics, I know...oh, well...
I think you are confused. The James Carville Jr. you mentioned and quoted is the same person I quoted. Carville Jr. is not a Republican. However, Carville Jr. is also strongly opposed to the social justice focus of a number of Democrats, in particular Bernie Sanders.
BTW, one of those Bernie alums is now Trump backer Tulsi Gabbard.
Slider_Quinn21 wrote:A couple of notes of note
- Regarding polling error. This is my big worry because we literally won't know the error until it's essentially too late. In 2020, the error was pretty huge in some cases so the whole thing makes me nervous. The polling error in 2020 was enormous, but it was also a pretty unusual year (obviously). With lockdowns going on across the country and Democrats more locked down than usual, the samples could've been incorrect. There was also the "shy Trump voter" issue at hand as Trump was extremely unpopular.
There was some thought earlier in the year that Biden might've had the same issue. Biden was so unpopular that people might've been "shy Biden voters" and told pollsters that they were voting for who they were perceiving is/was the more popular candidate at the time.
Are there still shy Trump voters? I feel like Republicans would be more likely now to admit that they are supporting Trump - the legal stuff might have dissuaded them a little bit, but that seems to have passed a bit. I also think you're seeing Biden voters saying they're switching to Trump so I think that bit of polling error might have been corrected a bit. Obviously the covid stuff is over so the sampling issue might be fixed. There's a thought that Republicans are just against polls and are less likely to take them. So that could still be an issue.
Of course, during the primaries, Biden overperformed his polls and Trump underperformed his. Is there a chance that pollsters, in an attempt to correct 2020, overcorrected and are oversampling Republicans? Is it the other theory that Republican-funded polls that lean right are flooding the market and affecting polling averages? Maybe? I would love if the polling was wrong but in our direction. I guess we won't know until November.
- Trump is flirting with dropping out of the debate. If he does, Harris needs to use the time. Trump is doing exactly zero to court voters in the middle, and she could have a great opportunity to reach people. I think Trump would be making a huge mistake by not debating, and I think she may be the one who doesn't need it. I think, obviously, she needs to appear to want to do it no matter what.
- Has she scheduled a national TV interview yet? She said she would by the end of the month. She really needs to do that because it's an attack that the right will continue to use on her. And it's an attack that I think is hitting her. I know she's trying to campaign as much as possible, but she needs to make this a priority. And I think she should do a bunch of interviews if she can.
- She and Walz are doing a bus tour of Georgia. Georgia is the only state that she's behind in the 538 polling average so I'm interested in what her campaign is thinking. Do they think there's huge gains they can make in Georgia? I would think that something like this could be more effective in places like Pennsylvania or even North Carolina, but maybe there's plans for that too. Best case scenario for democracy is for her to sweep all seven battleground states, but Georgia makes me nervous because of all of the control that Republicans have over the election process. I think it's the state that's most likely to be flipped. I'll be interested to see if the bus tour works (Trump is also focused on Georgia so maybe she can just play defense and make Trump focus on Georgia which could help her in Pennsylvania).
You're going to drive yourself mad with these dumb polls. Here's something, Gallup just released a poll where enthusiasm, however they're measuring that, is now at 78% among Democrats, an unheard of number, and 46% with Republicans. In general, the polls are very close to 2020 in the swing states. The national average is not, but that's because RCP for instance takes forever to roll recent polls into the avg. My feeling is that Harris is ahead of Clinton '16, but trailing Biden '20. One factor in those races were third parties. They received nearly 6% of the vote in 2016, which was a killer for Hillary, and then just 1.5% which greatly helped Biden. Trump in now a third election, remains marooned at the 46-47% mark. With RFK Jr. basically out, I think the "other" vote total could be as low as 2% now. That could allow Harris to get into the 50.5% range, with Trump "growing" to 47-47.5%. That would make many of these battleground states insanely razor thin. I still like her polling in MI, WI, and yes NV, a notoriously difficult state to poll. Demographics give Harris a chance in NC and GA, but I'm not confident there at all. I think she has a better chance with AZ. That leaves PA, which I fear is absurdly close, and could be decided by hundreds of votes. Have I driven you madder?
Harris and Walz first interview sit down with CNN is coming soon. She was of course attacked by GOP for having a dual sit down, when EVERY OTHER campaign including Trump Pence did the same thing.
Harris agenda is all over the place, even I can't keep up. Still, I feel like she's taking a page out of Trump's book, and just pandering. And why not? Worked for him.
BTW, Harris strategy to campaign in rural areas is terrific. You need to cut down the red margins in those places! This is the Obama strategy, and of course, the opposite of what Hillary did and paid for.
