American Politics: Discuss and Debate (Page 3 of 57)

Yeah, and that's what's sorta scary if you're in the #NeverTrump category.  Most voters vote based on the economy, and if the economy dips in the next few months, it could drive people to Trump.

It reminds me of the election in the final season of the West Wing.  Vinick had that election wrapped up until the nuclear disaster flipped the script.  Something big could push the election either way, especially if Hillary continues to lock herself to Obama (although I think that's a bit silly since they seem to disagree a ton).  If Obama's final few months is uneventful and prosperous, people would want more of the same.  If something happens that trips him up, people might want a change.

I'm still not convinced that the Democratic Party is going to unify behind Hillary.  The stuff in Nevada has gotten ugly, and the DNC (headed by Debbie Wasserman Schultz) is basically attacking the Sanders campaign.  I wasn't there so I can't speak to any violence, but I'm not sure how the DNC can even claim objectivity anymore.  And when Hillary gets the nomination, I think a ton of Sanders voters are going to be pretty pissed off at the DNC *in addition* to the hate they already feel for Hillary herself.

So to get Hillary elected, the Democratic Party is willingly pissing off the majority of voters under 45.  These are not only people they need to beat Trump, but they're voters that they need down ticket.  And in 2018.  And 2020.  And 2022.  And so on and so on and so on.  This is the future of the party, and the head of the DNC is basically calling them crazy, violent zealots.

The amount of power the Clintons must have in the Democratic Party is staggering.  Because literally any candidate other than Hillary should be able to wipe the floor with Donald Trump, but the Clintons are throwing every bit of power they have to make sure that the establishment stops at nothing to make sure she wins.  I'm honestly fascinated to see what kind of meltdown would happen if she doesn't win this time.  I'm guessing it will be epic.

Well Bernie is saying that he's going to get in line and help elect someone who isn't Donald Trump.  But I don't see what's in it for Bernie to help Hillary.  He'd be well in his 80s before he could legitimately run for president again (and she'd be harder to beat as a sitting president).  If she loses, I guess he could technically run in 2020. 

But he's not a Democrat, and the DNC has been awful to him.  And apparently the Clinton campaign is scared that Bernie folks won't come, even if he campaigns for her.  Even if he's the VP!  They've alienated the Bernie crowd so much that I just don't know if they'll come around.

I still think he could run as an independent.  I was saying that Jill Stein could get some votes.  Bernie could win some states.  He could almost certainly prevent either side from getting to 270.  But Trump wins if it goes to the Senate, right?

It goes to the House, not the Senate, if no one has a majority.

This was Sanders' only shot.  He'll have the same difficulties running as a third party that we discussed about Trump.  Sore Loser and Simultaneous Registration laws would keep him off of the ballot in almost all states.

Some of us feel that Clinton has been bought and paid for by the corporate elite. Sanders is not. America needs a man like the Bern but the corporations and uber riche are not gonna let that happen. they want to keep the country as a police state ruled by an obligarchy. Before long it will be a crime to be born poor...
Bernie Sanders supporters do not want this and have such an adversion to Clinton that they cannot bring themselves to cast a vote for this woman. Will they stay home or go Green Party? 

On the other front, the GOP is crapping their diapers. they never took Trump seriously and thus they did not try to torpedo his campaign. Now they are in a jam: if the party supports him and he loses by a landslide(very likely) they will lose some favor and even several seats in not only the Senate but the House as well. This is not what they want.
The Dems are trying to pull up some crap about his treatment of women but it may be too little too late. The GOP should have thrown their weight behind Chris Christie a year ago but he was not far enough to the Right for the fringe supporters of the party and thus they are stuck with the buffoon, Donald Trump.

I'm just waiting for a comet to smash into the planet and put us all out of our misery.

I'm still not sure as many people will jump to Hillary as you think.  Because these guys don't have party loyalty.  The difference between 2008 and 2016 is that the Rebels won in 2008.  Of course the older/establishment voters were going to get in line.  Young people don't have party loyalty, and a lot of these people are "independents."  And if they really believe in the "cause" instead of a "party line" then they'll vote 3rd party before they vote Hillary.  I really believe that.

The funny thing is that these two candidates are so historically awful that I'm not sure either party is going to be able to steal many of the other side's people.  Republicans might hate Trump, but they aren't gonna vote for Hillary.  And Democrats might hate Hillary, but they aren't voting for Trump.

At the end of the day, I bet we get historically low voter turnout because people don't want to vote for either of these guys.

Well, I just don't know if there are enough people who are going to go out and vote *against* someone.  I don't know if you can rally up support *against* a candidate.  No one loves Hillary.  And I'm not sure the people who love Trump are going to flock to vote for him.  People might hate Hillary and/or Trump, but I don't think that means people will go out and vote for the other guy so they won't win.

I think most people assume Hillary will crush Trump.  So if you're a Trump hater, why would you bother going out and voting for someone you don't really like.  Other people will do that for you.  Your vote doesn't really matter, you don't really support the person you'd vote for, and other people will beat him for you.  I think that's the mentality you'll see out of most Democrats.

It's like sports.  I might hate some team like the Philadelphia Eagles.  I might want them to lose every game they play.  I might tell myself that the world would be a horrible place if the Eagles ever won the Super Bowl.  But if the Eagles are playing, say, the Jaguars (a team I don't care about at all), I'm not going to pay to watch.  Or even watch for free.  Because, at the end of the day, I don't care if the Jaguars win.  I'll just check my phone later that night to see if the Eagles lost.

That's how I think this election will go.  Few people will hate Trump enough to vote for Hillary and vice versa.

Once it became Trump and Hillary, the whole process became no fun.  They're both so awful.  I don't have any more words for it.

This is the lull period in the election cycle.  It won't pick back up in earnest until around Labor Day.

I'm hoping for some surprises around the conventions.

Please let there be some surprises around the conventions. PLEASE!!!!!

I've heard of Brain Dead, but I usually skip CBS. Their shows usually bore me, and on the rare occasion when they haven't, the shows have been quickly canceled. But since it's summer, I might check it out. There's another one coming up called American Gothic which I've been considering.

The nightmare for the GOP is a clean sweep (House, Senate, White House).  House probably not happening, but this is a blue-heavy Senate map, unlike 2014 or 2018, and losing the Senate is a likelihood.  Especially if Trump drags the ballot down with him, another likelihood.  At which point, refusing to consider "moderate" Judge Garland could be a complete disaster.  Hillary would be able to nominate (should she choose) an overt left-leaning jurist, and the right would be completely powerless to stop her.  A simple majority confirms. 

SQ, she's not picking Sen. Warren as a running mate.  I can't imagine the two of them ever getting along well enough for that.  It's going to be a Tim Kane-type, someone with a strong history in Democratic party politics.  Running mate makes next to no difference in how people vote nowadays, unless you choose a bad one. 

Info, I don't expect surprises.  I think the Republicans are stuck with Trump.  If he backs out now, he'll be looked at as the clown of the century (if not already).  I think he'll eventually tone down the nonsense, and a neutered Trump is really an ineffective and boring Trump.  He'll go out with a whimper, and save whatever brand viability he has left.  The damage this fool has done to his own brand worldwide is simply incredulous.  This is how he earns a living, heck how his immediate family does as well.  His golf course already lost a PGA event ironically to Mexico of all places, as buildings and hotels with his name on it are being quietly boycotted.

Are you kidding, every employee of a cable news organization, and 90% of comedians are praying for mayhem, and most of them are atheists!  Not gonna happen, to quote Dana Carvey.  Trump's campaign is probably going to be broke by Cleveland anyway, because he won't take the RNC's money.  They refuse to use data modeling, they think his dumb tweets and crazy speeches will propel them home.  No chance.  The last and perhaps only successful "populist" candidate was Andrew Jackson, 200 years ago.  In other words, he needs them, or he'll be bankrupt himself for like the 6th time.

Anything short of a complete withdrawal by The Donald would mean an open revolt at the convention.  Sure the vast majority of actual delegates are still firmly in the RNC's corner, they are not Trumpites.  But to deny him on the grounds that he'll lose, that's a step I can't imagine they have the balls to pull off.  Trump and his supporters and voters would flip out.  He'd spend every minute from then until November telling his voters who to vote against in the fall. 

The GOP created this mess, now they're drowning in it.  They conditioned their voters with 24/7 Fox-fed bombast about how everything that happens in Washington is crooked and corrupt.  That everyone who works as a Federal employee is on the dole and doesn't actually DO anything productive.  The Trumpster has watched this, he's heard this, and he wisely calculated that if I portray myself as the 21st Century Archie Bunker he would ride that wave like he was on easy street.

I don't buy the doomsday scenario for the Republicans.  I think the big people are waiting on the FBI indictment stuff.  I think they're holding out hope that she gets defeated by them because I think they'd be more okay with a Sanders or Biden presidency.

Once Hillary clears the FBI hurdle, the Republicans will bend over backwards to support Trump.  They hate her.  H. A. T. E.  And once she's out there enough, the cavalry will show up.  Maybe they'll donate to the RNC as a way to save face, but they're not going to just sit back and let Hillary Clinton waltz into the White House.

And even if they do, I don't buy that Trump will make down-ballot candidates win.  The big Republican donors will donate money to someone.  If they're not donating to Trump, then it'll mean more money to Senatorial candidates in swing states.  If they're willing to let the presidency go away, then they'll make sure they get as many Senate votes as possible.

Trump is already fading.  The latest ABC poll has him down 12 points, and that's with the Bernie Bros still showing as undecided.  This could be a blowout so bad it would make Alf Landon blush.

I will add my recent thought on global politics:

I want Captain America to get a new partner named Brexit.

I love how excited Hillary supporters are.  The head of the FBI called her actions "extremely careless" and explained exactly how she'd lied to the public about what really happened.  She didn't ask for permission, she didn't hand over all her emails, and a lot of the emails were classified at the time.  And they're celebrating because their candidate won't be going to jail.

Hillary's only excuse now is that she was utterly incompetent.  And she's probably gonna be president.  It's unspeakable.

Yeah, because as bad as she is the Republicans have nominated someone even worse

Which is unspeakable in its own right.  This should be the easiest race.  She's unlikeable, she's seen as universally untrustworthy, and the FBI called her incompetent at the only job she's supposedly done well at her entire career.  And she's gonna win because the Republicans essentially forfeited.  It's driving me nuts.

In other news, Obama once again called her the most qualified candidate in history.  I'm stunned that he's tying himself to her at this level.  He doesn't have to do this.  And it's making me respect him so very little.

She was a lawyer.  Then she married Bill Clinton.  His name got her a job as a NY senator where she accomplished nothing.  Then she lost a presidential bid to a no-name congressman.  Then she was an incompetent Secretary of State.  Where are the qualifications?

This wasn't really routine. This was pretty big. And again, it is only one of a long list of crimes committed by the Clintons. Rape and murder aren't routine.

I'm not defending Trump. Please don't connect my comments about Hillary to any sort of Trump support.

Hillary was the brains behind Libya, and that was a disaster.  Now she's going to be the brains behind toppling the regime in Syria.  It's going to go just as well.  When you destabilize a place, even if it means getting rid of a monster, then people are going to cling to something that makes them feel safe.  For many in the Middle East, that's ISIS.

I definitely don't want anyone to get hurt, but I did wonder what would happen if both were killed at a debate.  Would the election be suspended until new candidates can be chosen and campaign?  Would both VP candidates become the nominees and choose their own VP candidates?  I honestly have no idea.

Yeah I'm just curious if we'd get Biden vs. Ryan (since they're the most known of the non-candidates) or if we'd get, say, Newt vs. Warren. 

In other news, another terrible day for Hillary.  Comey all but said she was too dumb to understand the difference between something that was classified and something that isn't.  I know people love her because she's not Trump, but that honestly seems to be the only reason to vote for her.  I almost think the Republicans would be better off doing something drastic at the convention and let the Trump people freak out.  I think pretty much anyone but Donald would be able to beat her.  I know the polling doesn't really show that, but if Trump isn't there to distract from her, I think her candidacy falls apart.  The Trump people would freak out, but they'd come around.

There is still a chance that the delegates will rally behind Cruz. The rules allow for these things to happen, so technically it's all part of the process. I'm not sure how people would react to that. Trump's supporters would probably freak out, but that doesn't mean that the election would be lost. A lot of people hate Hillary. Even democrats. Those people would probably vote for a reasonable candidate before her, even if they don't agree with his beliefs.

Meanwhile, a lot of conservatives won't vote for Trump anyway. The idea that we're all supposed to get excited about him because he has an R next to his name is absurd. We've tried that in the past, and it failed. Now we have a loon running, who does not represent our beliefs as much as he represents his own self interests, and we're supposed to support him just because.

Right now, the election is lose/lose. If some last minute play by delegates pulls Trump out of the running and puts someone like Cruz in his place, the whole game will change. Delegates are working to change the rules. This could be seen as betrayal by voters, but even if those Trump supporters hate the delegates, would they necessarily hate the candidate? I think it would depend on who was put in.

Maybe. But I really don't think that it would be worse than letting Trump lose. Letting Trump lose means Hillary in the White House. There is much worse than you can get than her.

It would cause a stir, sure. But there is a significant number of republican voters who don't support Trump, and who would cheer at his being booted. If the threat is that they would lose a chunk of the voters in order to run with this gamble, they have nothing to lose by doing it. They're going to lose a lot of voters by having Trump running. I'm not going to sign my name to a candidate because they tell me to. If Trump gets the nomination, they have a few months to convince me that it's worth swallowing a bucket of broken glass, just to keep Hillary out of office... and I might prefer drinking broken glass to Donald Trump.

I know me some conservatives, and I don't know many Trump supporters. It seems like he's doing what Obama did, which is energizing a group of people who like flash and show, but who aren't normally out there paying attention. Would those be the voters that the republicans are out of touch with?

It would be messy, sure. But it's going to be messy anyway at this point. If they put the right person in, they could pull it off. Paul Ryan would not be that person. Rubio would not be that person. Jeb would not be that person. Christie would not be that person. But Cruz? He's not like the others. They might be able to pull it off with him.

I feel that's what the Republican Party has been asking their constituents to do for decades (ever since Bush the elder).  I haven't felt them say "vote for me"; it's just "do you really want that other guy?"  Once he got beyond Hillary, that is where Obama succeeded in his first general election; the thrust was about voting for hope and change instead of the emphasis being against his opponent.  I do think Obama's hope and change line was bunk, but it was a positive message and worked.

Hillary in office won't feel much different than a 3rd term of Obama. If you're okay with the country's trajectory, then just keep riding it.  I do think Trump will be different; he already has been.  Is that better?  I don't know.  He's made a large number of mistakes (both in the election and his life), but I don't think he's the monster that the media (and his blundering) has made him out to be.

If you're worried about the world going to hell under him, then you don't realize just how bad we're already going to hell.  The Democrats and Republicans aren't going to be able to use business as usual to hold it together forever; and working with law enforcement, I can tell you unequivocally that since January violent crime in my area has spiked to levels I haven't seen since Hurricane Katrina.  The resurgence is not because of Trump; the largest contributing factor seems to be this Black Lives Matter business that has emboldened the criminal elements.  They know law enforcement is being rendered toothless by politics; there is no fear of repercussions.  It's been going that way for decades, but now it's dropped off a cliff.

Did you guys hear the crazy NYT story about Trump (which I admit I'm too lazy to look up right now)?  Word is that he's considering quitting early if the polls don't get better later in the election cycle because he wouldn't be able to take the embarrassment of actually losing the election (presumably because he thinks quitting is better than losing - something he'd presumably blame on a rigged system).

(Which would certainly play into the fact that Trump is simply a Clinton puppet sleeper agent designed to destroy the Republican party enough that Hillary can win but that's neither here nor there).

The crazier thing was that they asked him about quitting if he *won* and he didn't discount it.  That plays into the theory that Trump wants no business being president and just wants to win.  I could see that (or quitting a few months into the job when he sees how hard it is) and then it'd be a matter of whether or not you trust whoever Trump picks as a VP.  Which is funny because, as I've said, I'd trust just about anyone over these two.

What's interesting is that it could be the best of all worlds.  #NeverTrump Republicans would get to vote for him knowing he'd never take office.  Trump people would vote for it either assuming he'd never quit or not knowing about it at all.  If the Trump campaign was sophisticated at all, they could target #NeverTrump and try to get a few of them in key states to understand that the guy might never do anything in office.  They aren't so it won't matter, and the idea of him quitting might actually scare off his base.

It is an interesting thought, though.

I'm surprised Trump wants Cruz to speak at the convention; nobody must have reminded him of Pat Buchanan's speech at Bush's convention in 1992.  In that speech, Buchanan went off Bush's middle of the road message and pushed hard on social conservatism.  Historians tend to partly blame that for why Bush lost to Clinton.

Today those kinds of speeches don't seem to mean as much, but it's pretty nutty to believe Cruz is ever going to do Trump any favors.

It's a crying shame that the cops have to be a little more circumspect about just shooting the uppity black folks.  "No fear of repercussions" is what's led to the many, many deaths of unarmed black people at the hands of over-aggressive cops.

In any event, violent crime rates in the US are at historically low levels, even below the Leave It To Beaver 1950's.

I just hope that you're prepared to shoot someone to save your own life or someone you love, because one day you may not have the police to come do your dirty work when you scream for help.