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Trump made a big stink about the Kodak deal, but it's now under (Shocking) SEC investigation, and he said "I wasn't involved in the deal."

Apparently Trump now 100% fine with mail in voting in Florida.  Why is it okay to have mail-in voting in Florida and not elsewhere? Trump: "Florida has a great Republican governor..."

I could Biden see whooping Trump's ass literally, no holds barred.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/white-house- … 23670.html

White House scrapped a national CV-19 plan because the spring infections were primarily in blue states, and they thought they'd get away with blaming those Dem Governors for it.

Some polls are just plain bad, in both directions.  I would focus on things like the RCP (Real Clear Politics) average.  Take Michigan for instance, where polls range from +6 to +12, and RCP's formulated avg. is 8.4.  I ignore that number, instead check out the % for each candidate.  Biden is at 49.6, Trump is at 41.2.  Biden is literally polling at 50%, with TEN 10% of the poll undecided. 

Now, there's a margin of error and maybe some people lie to pollsters, whatever.  There's a second consideration, which is vital.  There are no moderately known 3rd party choices this year, none.  I have no clue who the Libertarian or Green Parties will nominate.  It doesn't matter, they're nobodies, similar to 2008 or 2012 most recently.  That is quite important, because that makes it even more of a binary choice.  For argument's sake, there's 7% undecided in MI avg polling.  Let's give Donny an edge 4-3, and say Biden really is favored around 52-45 there.  So you mean to tell me voter suppression, lying to pollsters, whatever, will erase a SEVEN point edge?  I'm sorry, that simply does not happen. 

Clinton's RCP lead in MI was around 4% for most of the time, but that's with a significant 3rd draw to Johnson and Stein of nearly 7%.  Hillary/3rd party's lost 4% in the final results, with Trump moving up 5.5%.  A big chunk of people either did not bother to vote for Hillary or opted at the last juncture to say eff it and voted for Trump.  The state's electoral results since 2016 have been a 180, totally against Trump/GOP.  That's one state, but there's a consistent scenario in many other states which Biden currently holds leads in. 

Trump has begun to attempt to act like he's serious about the CV-19 and whatnot.  Here's his problem.  He needs to keep that up for nearly THREE months without unleashing utter nonsense during briefings.  The cancellation of the campaign tour is obviously a big help to gaffe-prone Biden, but it's also a plus for Trump.  There's fewer chances for him to go lunatic in a speech since he's got no crowd in front of him expecting red meat.  My prediction is his convention speech is a complete meltdown of vitriol, and that's basically the end of the campaign right there, well before any debate meltdowns.

Well ol' Barry speaks the truth.  The problem for Trump is that campaign rhetoric has really been absent as a result of the pandemic, economic collapse, and BLM protests.  He can't go on the road and start babbling off to his supporters, both due to the pandemic, and more importantly, nobody will be there to listen out of shear boredom.  There will be an onslaught online, but many forums like Twitter, Reddit, Google/YouTube, etc. have been clamping down on it.  Facebook of course remains the wild west.  Then you have the Lincoln Project, Meidas Touch, RVAT, VoteVets, etc., etc. all aligned against him and the GOP.  That's not even considering what the DNC will do with ads and outreach.

Meanwhile Trump continues to make the wrong headlines, worsening his political standing with anyone who doesn't have his MAGA yard sign.  All he has are fearmongering tactics.  I've read multiple Republican accounts outside the campaign, who are flabbergasted that he has zero, repeat, zero platform for the "next four years."  What is he selling?  Shouldn't that be a top consideration?  This law and order nonsense will not work out as he hopes.  Meanwhile people's livelihoods have been decimated.  I expect a fully divisive, rambling, incoherent convention speech from him.  I expect a debate disaster where he's repeatedly fact checked and hammered on the head by Biden for "quitting on the American people." 

This guy has become the flashpoint on just about everything.  Violent protests, coronavirus surges, Russian bounties, massive unemployment, I could go on and on.  Even when he shouldn't be in the middle of it, he keeps interjecting himself, misguiding his supporters and haters to take stupid sides and go to war.  I do not see a silent majority of MAGA out there at all, MAGA is loud and whiny and belligerent.  No I believe there's a silent majority of disgust AT MAGA.  A reckoning is coming.  Again, he'll leave, trust me.  If he loses as many predict, Trump will be on the golf courses by Thanksgiving.  I'd say he'd reappear for Inauguration but he won't want to be seen with Obama.

It doesn't matter what stunt Trump pulls.  He's lost on nearly EVERY single one.  Each time he tries to go beyond the law, tries to subvert the Constitution, institutions have checked him.  The only one which has protecting him were the GOP Senate, because they wished to retain their majority.  That's over with now, he's radioactive and they are quickly running for the exits.  Plus they can't save him.  Too many of the "swing states" are governed by Democrats (WI, MI, PA).  What is he going to try to do, sue in a half dozen states if he's losing?  On what basis?  There will be parties in the streets all over the news.  Many Republican hardcore insiders have said if Trump cannot turn things around in a perceivable way in the next few weeks, he's toast.  His convention plans are now completely destroyed.  Biden and the DNC have their slate I'm sure largely worked out what they'll broadcast.  The RNC do not know what to do, or where to even have their delegates.  Charlotte and Jacksonville have both kicked them out.  I'm still not ruling out that Donny throws his hands up at some point, and says F this.

Biden would be hamstrung by a GOP Senate, even if a minority, that would refuse pretty much anything he or Pelosi/Schumer were to propose.  Bernie, Warren, Pete, Harris, Amy, all would have the same roadblock.  The GOP simply isn't interested in government-based social programs, such as child care, education, public healthcare option, etc.  Bernie couldn't get most Democrats to sign his 10% cut to the DoD in order to fund other priorities.  The lobbyists are too strong. 

Ted Cruz is the front runner they say for 2024.  He just said Americans are stuck at home and depressed so they'll vote for Biden.

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1286020941672153089

As for Trump, this article really hits the nail on the head.  Trump is simply a man devoid of a soul, constantly bitter, with nothing that interests him besides making people's lives miserable.  He is only guided by the grudges he holds.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archi … ty/614434/

Sounds like a Jon Stewart bit there TF!!!!  Not for nothing, but you have anti-mask demonstrations everywhere, not only in The South, and Florida is down there but has dummies who hailed from up North too.

Meanwhile, Trump's niece is a cable ratings hit with her book that is flying off the virtual shelves.  Chuckle chuckle chuckle.

Nice!  Obvious question, I'm sure the rooms were on a sound stage, but was the bar and lobby from the actual hotel?

Trump is mentally ill. 

Biden's campaign are doing a little in Texas and some other states, but most of their upcoming ad buys are in the rust belt, where he's now further ahead.  They win those states, they win the White House.  Don't need Texas or even Florida where he's further and further ahead.  Trump is Biden's best campaigner at this point.  The buffoon just makes it easier and easier for Joe.  His latest anti-Biden slogan was you'll have war in the streets if we elect Biden, yet the video clips were shot during TRUMP's term!!!!!!!!

Trump is going down the drain as the virus rages.  Hillary Clinton would not have behaved in the manner Trump has with the virus.  Shit, I don't think Ted Cruz would have been this much of a total jackass.  This virus is worse than people realize.  It may never go away, like the common cold, and infect people year after year.  Immunity, even with a vaccine, sounds unlikely to last very long.  At some point, society may just have to live with it, and those who are sickly or at risk, will be totally fucked.  Idiots like Trump, Brazil's Bolsonero, Putin, and others allowed this virus to blow up the world. 

Beyond that, would Hillary have been embroiled in the kinds of impeachable scandals left and right as Trump?  I doubt it.  The email thing was a total joke.  Ivanka got caught doing the same thing months into the Trump regime.  As for wars, well I'm not sure how she would have dealt with Russian aggression, or Syria, or whatever?  Whatever she had planned, it sure beats the hell out of enduring the disaster this pandemic has made of the world.

Ha ha ha!  Laughing.  Oh, and I loved Waiting and that usher guy was incredibly annoying in that video, too.

I only watch Stargirl, I find it quite refreshing.  As it seems the pandemic will probably keep me home for quite some time, I am likely to do a massive CW DC rewatch.  I have wanted to rewatch Smallville particularly the high school years as I missed a lot of eps.  Then I'd move to the others.  Legends of Tomorrow and Supergirl of course have quite a bit of scifi and parallel universe stuff in them.  What sucks is that most of it is on stupid Hulu which I don't have.

He clearly hates the job, because he doesn't do it.  He doesn't read his briefings, and has failed to set policy objectives which Congress has any chance of passing.  Does he enjoy the power?  Most likely, but Trump is a narcissist, his ego must be filled continually.  He enjoys the reality show aspects, but not the actual job.  Trump's absurd projection of himself in the public sphere is what he covets the most. 

That is why I am fully positive that he's privately considering ALL options.  Voter suppression and Russian interference I'm sure are part of that discussion.  But I truly believe he's concocting exit strategies as we speak, based on his polling, Congressional support, emerging scandals, whatever.  He might be an idiot when it comes to public policy, but Trump is a savant when it comes to mapping out his own personal parachute.  As I've remarked many times, it's what he does.  Atlantic City, the USFL, an airline, golf courses, hotels, NBC show, steaks, phony charity, and a real estate university.  Each time, when the venture goes belly up, and usually in less than 4 years, he and his family always find a way to do a Blues Brothers under the stage and through the sewer escape.  I do not believe we will see Trump get blown out in November.  If that seems likely, he will get out.  The embarrassment of losing is what he will try to avoid at all costs.

Biden, well, look, in 1987 despite being a fairly well known Senator, he was still a national nobody.  He was cleared of the plagiarism, something today we'd all laugh about.  He wasn't the main candidate that year anyway, that was Gary Hart.  In 2008, yeah he ran, but again, he was not in the conversation early and raised no money so out he went.  This time around, unlike any time before, he stepped in as the front runner, the person that the rank and file were hoping to see run.  Despite gaffs and the Burisma nonsense, Tara Reade, and whatever else, Biden is still standing.  How?  The reason is clear, Trump.  Donald Trump's loathsomeness has kept the Biden campaign relevant to more voters than anyone else.  While the others tried to run on policies, Biden simply ran as the anti-Trump.  It's not a slogan, it's just a perception.  People know him, they trust him, some even like him.  But it's Trump, time and time again, who says and does things which make people cringe.  Then they see/hear Joe Biden, and despite his somewhat clumsy way of communicating, is somewhat reassuring.  He's like having your savings account FDIC insured.  If anyone expects Trump to tone down the rhetoric or develop a sane presence on TV, you need to see a therapist.  He's like a tooth ache.

First of all, Biden's best defense/offense has been that unlike Donald, he will actually READ the briefings, and listen to the advice of experts.  Trump's motto was that smart people are to be laughed at, because he's got all the answers.  Remember "stable genius?" 

In any event, let's not act like the President needs to be sitting in front of a computer fixated and working like mad as if he were the fat guy trying to unlock the doors in Jurassic Park.  Obama did none of that.  The President makes decisions, that's his or her job.  The information is taken to them.  Biden has also been using his experience with foreign leaders as a selling point, something again Trump has been a disaster with, particularly on phone calls. 

Lastly, in the debates during the primary, Biden got into trouble when he tried to exaggerate his "liberal" credentials or was unable to dodge modern liberal criticisms on his center-left positions from 30/40 years ago.  Here again, is Donald Trump the "guy" to attempt to question Biden's position on racism?  The man who TODAY told a FOX news host that black people need to read history or it will happen to them again (re: removing Confederate statues).  Think about that, if they take the monuments down, they run the risk of FORGETTING about slavery.  This is the guy to critique Biden's decades-old positions?   When Trump was being sued for racist housing policies, or later wanted the black Central Park Five executed for a crime they didn't even commit.  That guy?  Yeah, good luck there.  Trump couldn't even respond coherently to Sean Hannity, how do you expect him to fair in a debate?

PS: You guys have to get the primary debates out of your heads.  Candidates will say whatever they can to be ingratiated with voters.  And yes, Biden may have his work cut out for him, although Mitch McConnell hilariously pleaded with Senate Dems not to remove the filibuster if they retake control.  Hilarious, remove it, and push through legislation Americans want to see, who cares if the useless Senate GOP complains.  They had 4 years to grow spines.

Already blaming Jared Kushner for giving bad advice for 3.5 years, he whined about that today.  The Excuse Express is ready to leave the station.

Interesting, you know, this concept leads me to wonder if Sliders writers had something of an unwritten rule that the group always arrives on these weirdo worlds AFTER they've been hit by cataclysm or been morphed solidly into some type of fascist society.  They rarely landed in worlds for very long which were quite frankly lunatic-villes.

Look NJ has a flag that looks like cigarette stained drapery.

On the Trump front, more and more reporting indicates he's known Russia has been paying bounties for dead American troops in Afghaninstan for over a year, and lied about it. Hasn't done jack about it. Only logical explanation is he's a Russian asset. They got him elected, he covers for them every chance he gets. What other explanation is there, honestly?

Again, Bolton briefed him about bounties in March 2019. In April three Marines were carbombed. In February 2020, US Intelligence briefed him again that there was sufficient intel on the validity of bounties. Four months have gone by, and nothing. Nothing. Worst traitor in American history.  I am EFFING furious. Trump needs to resign yesterday.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/29/trump-r … ruary.html

In TF's backyard, the last state flag with a clear Confederate emblem in it will soon be changed.  Mississippi's Governor is expected to sign a bill today I believe that finally removes it!

What finally did it you ask?  Well the NCAA declared last week that MS would not have been allowed to host ANY NCAA championship events until the flag was gone.

In regards to the protests spreading COVID, I'm sure there's some of that, but did Florida, Arizona, South Carolina, Texas, etc. see the bulk of them?  Nope.  The states opened with few restrictions and the political leaders basically told people, it's over with, don't worry about it anymore.  If you look at it state by state, the reality is, once again, the virus grew from surges in low income, often migrant workforces who are forced to work and live in unsafe conditions (for COVID), and have no healthcare access.  From there, it spreads and spreads.  Many of them are indeed young.  Most of the spiking states are either on the Mexican border, or rely on migrant labor like Florida.  Like the Iowa meat processing industry, the state's simply didn't do squat to protect those people, and now they're paying the price. 

As for Fauci, I mean, he's not a politician, and he DID say the protests could be an issue.  It's not his job to say, well this will spread the virus so shut it down, because he and everyone else knew that wasn't going to happen. 

Anyway, my point remains that the protests are not what has caused a spike in the virus.  Just look at California.  The county that has seen massive, I mean massive spikes?  Imperial County right on the border.

Biden has a 10 point favor-ability above Hillary.  His leads in demographics like white women, college educated, over 65, etc, etc, are literally light years above Hillary.  Trump is minus 12-15 on almost every question polled.  In 2016, the winds of change, particularly in the Rust Belt, were slightly with Trump.  This time it's a gale force blast against Trumpism.  You've got COVID-19 blowing up again in the Sun Belt.  Biden gives speeches that only MSNBC runs, while Trump is lambasted by social media ads from Republicans against him.  If this keeps up, Trump will probably quit and run away, which is his M.O. over 50 years of business.  Bankruptcy after bankruptcy.  If he has to choose between being a quitter and being perhaps history's biggest loser, he'll chose to quit.  That's why he's had Bill Barr attempting to erase "Individual 1" from the Michael Cohen case, so that Trump is not indicted the minute he's out of office.

Ha ha ha!  I've had the same $200 bucks in my wallet since March.  Haven't gone to a gas station (where I normally use cash) either.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl … laved.html

Cracka, imagine Sliders writers ever tried this?????

This is what happens when your President decides a national health crisis no longer is worth his time. 

Klobuchar called Biden today, suggested he choose a woman of color in this moment, and dropped from consideration.

https://twitter.com/MSNBC/status/1273803046687047681

So you cannot ignore the polls, even though many were wrong in 2016.  Well, the national ones were not that bad, state polls were.  The Trump undercount in the state polls still happens, because white non-college educated voters tend to be more difficult to keep on the phone and answer the pollster's questions.  In 2016, pundits argued they were just embarrassed to say Trump, but that is not an issue now, he's the damn President.  National polls though are much more accurate because the huge swath of demographics can be fulfilled because they can hit a much wider sample size. 

If you look at the national polling, Biden is now on average up 8-9 points and growing.  He's been consistently in the lead with likely voters since 2019.  Yes, Clinton won the popular vote but only by 3.3%.  If Biden were to win that by even 5-6% though polling indicates a higher gap, there's simple little possibility for Trump in the Electoral College.  The reason for this is mainly with probability calculations, but to be 6+% up, it's just very difficult.  Hell at 3% he won three critical states by less than 100,000 votes in total.

One of the interesting sites I look at was created by a college freshman, Jack Kersting, https://projects.jhkforecasts.com/presi … -forecast/  He uses polling as well as Fundamentals (partisan lean, economic indexes), Expert's Ratings, and State Similarity Regression (demographic changes) to make a forecast. 

Then there is the modern expert, Five Thirty Eight, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/po … national/, which does a great job at tracking all of the national and state polls.

Finally we have Real Clear Politics, https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll … _map.html, who have an interactive map and do the gold standard in polling averages.  RCP is also very selective in what polls it includes in the averages.

With all of that said, to chime in on what SQ21 calculated, I have it Biden 222 Trump 125 right now in terms of absolute guaranteed votes.  What's left?

Let's take states that are not "in the bag" yet, though likely, for one or the other....Iowa (T), Minnesota (B), Texas (T), Georgia (T), Nebraska 2nd (T), Michigan (B).   Yes I know Michigan went for Trump in 2016, but ALL of the polling is totally to Biden by a highly safe number. 

That's now Biden 248 Trump 186 with 104 votes remaining, and Biden only needing 22.  The states included are Arizona, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Maine's 2nd district. 

There's many scenarios, but if Biden takes PA, he's 2 votes shy.  While the Maine 2nd would tie the two of them, Biden would lose the tie breaking house vote (it's done by state delegations and that's unlikely to favor him after 2020 election even).  So he then needs only one other state, likely to be AZ, WI, FL, or NC.  I don't see Ohio flipping. 

If I had to estimate where the race is right now, I'd say 333-205, but again, it's tough because the state polling might be off again.  Look a LOT can change, but you cannot ignore trends.  The trend since 2017 has been mass turnout and move away from Trump.  The GOP has been steamrolled all over the country under his leadership.  James Carville predicts a blow out, which I'd adore but not counting on.  Biden in like polls is doing far better with suburbanites, independents, women, and even high school only white guys than Hillary. 

Now in terms of Transmodiar's lamentations, I'll go back to Carville.  Bernie ran a good campaign, but in the end, the rank and file of the Democratic Party voting against him.  He only had about 30% support in most of the country.  And if you get away from the coasts, it just was not there.  Like Trump, he opted to be populist, and that just doesn't have a big enough tent.

Ehh, whatever they're doing that's a blip on the radar compared to what would normally have been done in the spring, summer and fall basically EVERYWHERE that young people congregate.

Jon Stewart for the win

https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/cu … w-1015120/

Well in my S5 rewatch they did go a lot further than in prior seasons to hit on the "throw away worlds" for laughs.  Didn't get any cheaper budget wise than that year. 

As for looking into doubles, back then it was difficult to film that way, for the actors and crew.  I'm not sure if technology has proceeded enough by this point?  I guess not using stand ins would help in the current COVID-19 era.

Good Lord that is a horrible noise!  That's literally unbearable.