American Politics: Discuss and Debate (Page 49 of 53)

Well at least he's given up babbling about Hannibal Lector.  He also called her a "low I.Q. individual," which is either some sort of racist dog whistle or just Trump once again projecting his own insecurities (low I.Q. himself).  He also derided Kamala for laughing too much, something he's incapable of doing, even a little. 

ABC/Ipsos poll results.

Overall, do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of:

July 19-20:

Harris: 35%-46%, Trump: 40%-51%, Vance: 25%-31%.

July 26-27:

Harris: 43%-42%, Trump: 36%-52%, Vance: 24%-39%.

just one poll, but that's a big shift.  clearly Democrat and Biden-leaning respondents are far more pleased.

She is all over CNN, ABC News, the evening news, etc. There was a CNN documentary on her last night that was done really well.

Pete Buttigieg was on FOX News yesterday annihilating their interviewer, and clips of these interviews went viral on Twitter. (I refuse to update my naming convention to X).

Kamala's digital team (which was actually Biden's digital team) is kicking butt.

MSNBC, though, is doing their coverage of everything that's in Project 2025 all week. Which is important for voters to know about.

Here are all the details:

https://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/st … -comic-con

The baiting part would be fun. I think he's just going to do it himself and continue to sink him and his wrecking ball of a party even further as we continue to November.

This is not a fun time to be a Trump-loving rethuglican.

I am so glad Jerry didn't turn out to be a Trumper. Thank you Jerry for always being a champion of Democracy!!!

https://nypost.com/2024/07/31/us-news/t … n-chicago/

Oh My Heavens.

100% agreed.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/po … d=abcpromo

FiveThirtyEight launched their polling average for Harris-Trump specifically, and Harris is up 1.2% nationally.  They don't have enough polling data to launch in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada, or Wisconsin but she's leading by 1.6% in Michigan.

I think the momentum and the "honeymoon period" will end, but she's still got a potential bump from her VP pick and the convention.  It's crazy how much things have turned around.

Honestly, that is what scares me most.

Yes, I think you're right.

I absolutely love Buttigieg.  I think he'd be great, and I think he can absolutely be president some day.  But in an election where evangelicals are already going to extra motivated, I think running a ticket of a black woman and a gay man is going to cause extra issues.  As much as I love Shapiro, I'm a little bit nervous about not having a Christian man on the ticket.

I know it's not the way it should be, but I think Pete needs to wait until some of the Trump anti-LGBT firestorm dies down.  Add him to the Harris cabinet (Secretary of State?) and keep building up his resume.

I agree about the honeymoon period, but could it last a couple more months?  People seem to be energized by a non-Trump/Biden candidate, and honeymoon.  Harris' own VP approval rating honeymoon lasted almost eight months.  My hope is that Harris wins before people even really know if they like her or not.

As far as turnout goes, I think you're forgetting that the true power the Democrats have is anti-Trump, not pro-Harris.  The anti-Trump people will turn out whether it's Biden, Harris, or me on the ballot.  They'd show up if they had to write Harris in.  A ton of people in this country love Trump, but a ton of people hate him.  Both are equally excited to show up.  Also, since the shift in the electorate, Democrats do better with people who are more likely to vote.  I'll let 538 explain from this article: https://abcnews.go.com/538/harris-trump … =112494481

Basically, Trump has a really rabid group of people who almost never vote in anything else.  They're also less likely to vote in ways that are more convenient (by mail, voting early, etc) so something like weather in rural Pennsylvania on election day can actually make a difference.

I think you're right, and I think she will.  But I think she's doing the right thing and hammering him on being weak and cowardly.  MAGA will eat up whatever excuse he has, but undecideds won't.  She needs to make that point instead of quickly accepting any offer Trump makes so that the news can report day after day that she's sticking to the original agreement and Trump wants a friendly crowd on a friendly network.  Then she can hammer him on it during the debate too.

I'm also a little nervous about Trump's legal stuff popping up.  I wonder if that will break up some of the momentum that Harris has now.  Trump campaigned better and raised money better during his trials, and as much as I'd love the population to learn more about his election interference case, I wonder if it's better to just let it lie until after the election.

That's not my understanding.  The DC case hasn't been dismissed, and there's a hearing in a couple of weeks on how to proceed.  What could happen, based on my limited understanding of these matters, is that the Supreme Court required them to have hearings on whether the acts that are under the indictment were official acts or not.  What that could mean is that the government has to lay all its cards on the table, including calling witnesses, to present their evidence.  It would mean giving the defense a ton of insight into what they're planning on doing, but it would also get a ton of evidence out into the public consciousness.

It was basically what democrats were clinging to when the immunity decision was announced.  It feels like a huge risk/reward proposition - they could obviously get voters huge details on what Trump was trying to do in 2020.  It could also a) give the defense a huge advantage if the case ever proceeds and b) backfire and actually help Trump.

For me, I'm sorta hoping to just take it off the table unless there's something about Pence's testimony or some other evidence that would change enough minds to keep him out of the White House.  At this point, all I really care about is beating him in November.  If he never pays for any of his crimes, whatever.

This was something Simon Rosenberg said, speculatively, on Twitter. I can't find his tweet now, but his view was that Trump has gained much of what he sought from re-winning: immunity and funding for his legal battles.

It wouldn't be up to President Kamala Harris to prosecute Trump; it's entirely on an independent Department of Justice. That said, I would expect that if Harris is elected, she'll fire Merrick Garland for incompetence and seek to appoint someone more driven.

My question is...has Harris already lost the voters who think the economy is bad?  In other words, does the performance of the economy matter?

I saw an opinion article on USA Today that was from a conservative columnist who said "I have been attacking Biden but we should really be afraid of Harris."  The point of her article was that she'd attacked Biden as being far-left and a radical socialist for four years, but he's pretty moderate and it's actually Harris who's the far-left socialist.

If I had any interest in getting in a dialogue with someone like that, I would ask "So you admit you lied about Biden, but you want people to believe you now?"

The problem with MAGA and the GOP is that everything is a hyperbole.  Trump is the greatest president ever.  He had the greatest economy ever.  This is the greatest persecution ever.  Biden is the worst president ever.  It's the worst economy ever.  The border is the worst ever.

And the problem with that is that you've already played your card.  There's nowhere to go but up from the worst ever.  People get tired of hyperbole, and if you want to shift your attack, you have to admit you lied the first time.  Biden can't be the worst if Harris was the worst.  And, again, they've been saying this for years.  So anyone who's going to listen to Trump or Mike Johnson or Ted Cruz has already been convinced.

The stock market goes up and down, and it's already really up under Biden.  Maybe there are people who liked Trump but switched to Biden because the economy was doing better than Trump was saying, but I don't know how many of those there are.  Maybe the economy will be the tiebreaker for undecideds - it's a very important metric, but hopefully those people know that Trump doesn't have any sort of magic ability to improve the economy.  And if he did, he probably wouldn't have gone bankrupt so many times.

Forgot to comment on this.  This is something.  Nate has been really cold on Biden, and his model has been way more pessimistic on Biden than most places.  If he has her with a greater chance to win than Trump, that's pretty big.  Now the difference is minor, and it's basically a coin flip race in Nate's model, but it's pretty big.

And everyone is right, she's winning in a lot of polls now.

I know enough to know that many are pissed off with the Fed chairman Powell, and that they cannot wait until the planned September meetings, and should do something this week about the rate points.  I believe a rate cut will correct the market.  The tech-heavy NASDAQ got walloped today, partly due to bad job numbers in the information sector. 

You have a Presidential candidate literally CHEERING on economic bad news.  Another candidate admitted he dumped a dead bear carcass in Central Park 10 years ago.  Trump is in hot water with Georgia women voters, after disgracefully badmouthing the Governor's wife on Saturday, repeatedly.  They are pissed down there.  Again, is this Trump trying to lose, or Trump simply so unhinged all guard rails are off?

Stay the course, ladies and gentlemen...ignore the propaganda.

https://x.com/acnewsitics/status/1820638600582557860

All propaganda and right wing lies. Nothing to worry about here.

https://x.com/acnewsitics/status/1820665282605572306

Well the funny thing is that Republicans are blaming Harris.  She isn't president.  Even if the president was directly responsible for the performance of the stock market (spoiler: he isn't), that would be on Biden, not Harris.  The only thing that they can do is say that Biden isn't in charge, Harris is.  Which, again, means they have to admit that they lied about Biden this whole time.

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Sounds like it's Walz based on the security outside his and Shapiro's houses.  I think it would be a mistake, but that's not entirely a surprise.  Democrats seriously never do anything the easy way.

Maybe the polling is strong enough in Pennsylvania not to matter.  Maybe Walz appeals to those same Pennsylvania voters and also people in other swing state.  They know more than me, but bypassing the popular governor of a must-win state because a small segment of the population is threatening to vote against their own interests seems really silly to me.

Sure, but Harris polls worse than Biden in Pennsylvania.  The switch from Biden to Harris is the worst in Pennsylvania.  And Pennsylvania is a must-win state.  Even if Shapiro was second on the ticket, it's basically a super-endorsement of her as a candidate.  If 60% of people like Shapiro then there's gotta be a portion of the population of the state that would have Shapiro as the tiebreaker.  Biden won Pennsylvania by 80,555 votes.  It might be closer than that this year.  If Shapiro convinces 0.1% of Pennsylvania voters, that's 6,836 voters.  That could be the election.

But I'll support Walz the same way I would've supported anyone else.  Maybe he can have the same effect as Shapiro in Pennsylvania.  Maybe he won't have the same issues Shapiro would've had with his views on Israel and his religion.  Maybe it's better to have a white Christian male on the ticket to balance out a black woman.

But if they lose Pennsylvania, they lost it today.

First of all, Biden was polling baddd in PA prior to dropping out.  He was down 5-6 points, and she's even or ahead.  Second, Shapiro is not by himself winning her the state.  He was gifted an abject idiot of an opponent in 2022, and glided to the win there.  Let's not forget that Paul Ryan failed to deliver Mitt Romney his own congressional district!

My fear with him was he's too green, and perhaps overrated.  I also remain skeptical that Shapiro could have been a deal breaker in Michigan, where hundreds of thousands of Arab-Americans are still threatening to sit the election out.  Walz is an Amry veteran, teacher, football coach, Congressman, and just seems like he generates good vibes.  He has a significant social media presence, and has proven over the last month to know full well out to get yourself noticed on there.  He immediately entered the picture by blasting the phony Appalachian JD Vance to great effect.  I'm not sure which of these hopefuls would have helped Kamala "win" but Walz and Secretary Pete were the two best surrogates to govern.

In other news, the NY Times Sienna poll, which was not kind to Joe Biden, has Kamala comfortably up over Trump in the state of NY.  That state is obviously not up for grabs, but Harris has but Democrats back in the driver's seat around the host of suburban districts on Long Island and around the Hudson Valley region north of NYC.

https://www.marketwatch.com/market-data/us

The most foolish thing anyone can do is to watch the stock market on any kind of regular basis.  You will go mad.  My view is the conservative approach, be in it for the long haul.  Second thing, there is a rule in politics.  NEVER tie yourself to gains in the stock market OR oil prices.  You have little control of either, and when they drop, you will be strangled by it.  Trump continues to flaunt the abject stupidity in this.  The #KamalaCrash nonsense is dead after less than 24 hours.  That said, the FED needs to cut rates and do it by the end of the week.

I've said this before but if Trump came to me (as AG or as Jack Smith or whatever) and offered to disappear in exchange for dropping the cases, I'd take it.  I don't even care at this point if he never faces justice.  I want him to just go away and let American democracy heal.  Because outside of Trump, most of the MAGA nonsense doesn't work.  Kari Lake tried all the same tricks in Arizona that Trump tried, but there was no January 6th.  There were no protests.  There were barely any election deniers.

It only works with Trump.  And if he exiled himself to Mar-A-Lago and hosted dinner parties the rest of his life, I think we might be able to get some semblance of sanity back.

With that in mind, I hope whatever trial stuff happens before the election, it doesn't help Trump.  I don't want to give him a chance to look like a victim or whatever.  Harris has all the momentum, and I don't want that to change.

********

And Grizzlor, I'm willing to give Walz a chance.  I know VP doesn't make huge waves, but it just feels like Shapiro was going to hand Harris Pennsylvania.  In polling as a candidate himself, he was up 10 points on Trump there.  Even if a fraction of those people voted for Harris/Shapiro, she easily gets the most important state and the election gets so much easier.  And if it meant getting PA but losing MI, I'm cool with that.  She's polling pretty great in Wisconsin and then it would just be getting Georgia, North Carolina, or Arizona.  1/3 shot.

But maybe Shapiro as a surrogate is enough.  Maybe Walz gets the same number of votes that Shapiro would have gotten.  Maybe it doesn't matter.

Like I said, I'll be annoyed today and then get over it.  I hope he has Sun Belt appeal because I still think she needs the Blue Wall plus another state or two.

Tim Walz came out swinging against Trump (Hitler). I am really liking him.

I'm disappointed it wasn't Buttigieg, but I'm still putting my big boy pants on, voting, and not changing my vote.

Tim Walz is literally America's Dad. And Trump Team has the couch humper for VP. LOL

Nate Silver wrote an article about it today.  I agreed with him in general, and he basically said Walz was the safe pick.  That it was a fairly traditional pick because it added to her.  And I know Shapiro had warts, and I'd certainly worry if he *only* added to Pennsylvania. 

My worries with Walz are:

- Does he give you anything?  I know he doesn't take away from the Gaza vote like Shapiro or from the union vote like Kelly.  But does he give you anything?  Is there anyone who would vote for Harris today who wasn't going to vote for her yesterday?  That's the question.  Maybe he's great.  I just hope he isn't Tim Kaine, who gave Clinton nothing.  I know he's better than Vance, but the bar certainly can't be that low.

- Republicans are celebrating their butts off.  Not the attacks - those have been generic and overblown as usual.  But Republicans thought she'd pick Shapiro and "the race would be over" - They basically saw it as a chance to go for the knockout, but instead they're still in the race.  That worries and bothers me.  It never feels good when you do something and the other side celebrates.

I guess we'll see.  The polls look good and she can still get a bump from the convention.  Maybe she'll get a bump from this.  The Harris campaign is much better than the Biden campaign was so maybe they'll make me eat my words in three months.  I would love nothing more than to be wrong about this.

One of my favorite facts about Tim Walz:

During his career as a high school teacher, in the same year, he coached the football team to a state title. AND served as the faculty advisor for the school's first gay-straight alliance club.

The more I learn about Tim Walz, the more I like.

Harris has taken a clear lead in polls like Marquette, Harris (no relation), and Marist.  Battleground's are still tied.  Cook Political Report has put all BG states back to toss up.

Walz is currently being "Swift boated" by Trump campaign chief Chris LaCivita, who did the same to Kerry.  The claims are audacious and stupid.  Walz needs to hit back.

Massive crowds this week at every HW stop.  JD Vance has been trailing them, with little to no following.  Where is Trump?  All he does is call in to talk shows and doesn't leave the golf clubs.  Advertising (TV and web) has trickled to a crawl.  They are clearly not going to open BG state offices like Biden (now Harris).  What the hell are they spending money on?

That brings us to Plan B.  Trump and friends have either replaced civil servants/officials or rules/laws in multiple states, with the purpose being an all out electoral count/certification battle following November 5.  Be prepared for a war.  They intend on selectively challenging precinct, county, and state vote counting and certification wherever they choose.  The "mistake" of 2020 was to try to stop it in Washington.  This time Trump intends on throwing out thousands of votes in a completely "out in public" attempt at stealing the election.  This is not hyperbole from me.  They have spent tens of millions on this effort.

They'll be all over Chicago next week as well.  VP Harris actually MET with the leaders of the Michigan "non-committed" movement before the Detroit airport event.  Some then proceeded to repeatedly interrupt her, until she finally told them off as one should.  These people would have been completely barred from a Trump event.  Unfortunately these people are completely incorrigible, and they have literally no home in major American politics.  Another squad member got dumped, being Cori Bush in St. Louis, by a great candidate in DA Wesley Bell.  She proceeded to have an on-stage meltdown.  Sadly the cannot be said of Europe, where pro-Hamas factions are rampant.

I do NOT believe that at all.  By the way, Gretchen Whitmer lost the Arab-American vote last time, won the state of MI by 11 points.  If Harris can continue to prove she has a spine, that's going to go along way.  She and Biden are sick of Netanyahu, he's looking to start an Iranian war.  These are not serious people, this protesters.  They march around with Gays for Palestine signs.  Try being a gay person in Gaza.  Unserious.

And the Hindenburg was a bit of a mishap.

Another round of good polling for Harris.  It was just one poll, but she's tied in North Carolina.  Its not an exact science, but if she wins North Carolina, she's going to win the election (maybe as big as possible).  Just like a month ago when they were talking about Trump winning Minnesota, that would've been best case for him.

Still a long way to go and Harris will have to defend herself on the debate stage and in interviews, but it's amazing how much things have flipped in such a short amount of time.  She's on the inside track now.